I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China was 6425.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price dropped 7.05% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potassium carbonate was in shock and consolidation. Affected by the National Day holiday, the market of potassium carbonate was not running well, and the trading atmosphere was cold. At the same time, the demand side was weak, resulting in the consolidation of the price of potassium nitrate. The actual turnover of the market is relatively general, while the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the overall inventory is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in October, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6300-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that this week’s potash market is volatile and consolidation. The October of the golden nine silver ten has passed by half, but potash market still hasn’t improved. In the short term, potash prices may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, last week (10.14-18) the domestic adipic acid market was slightly lower than that of the previous week, and the dealers’ quotation was mainly reduced. The market price was reduced to 50-100 yuan / ton, with a decline percentage of 0.21%. As of the end of the week, the quotation is generally 8300-8450 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market continued to maintain a weak market after the festival. Last week, the market did not improve. The traditional peak season of “silver ten” was completely blown out in the middle and late ten days. At present, most regions of the country maintain stability, and some of them have declined. Most dealers have successively reduced their quotations by about 100 yuan / ton. The markets in East China and South China have declined. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, and dealers are active. Goods oriented, the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly stalemate, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits.

In terms of supply, affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders, the market supply only keeps increasing, and many dealers say that the inventory pressure is large, the plant operation rate of manufacturers is high, the market inventory and the manufacturer’s inventory have increased, and the market has staged stock up behavior at the end of September, and now the downstream procurement is still rational. Affected by this, the stock taking in the middle of the month slightly slows down. Among them, there are also relatively low-cost sources flooding the market. There is a certain bargaining space for products, and the price difference between the market price offer and the firm offer remains. Dealers in North China, East China and South China adjust their quotations to varying degrees, and most regions maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The traditional “silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The downstream operating rate is still slightly insufficient. The operating rate is basically above 50%, which does not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market is still sluggish, and the downward trend is more and more clear. From the 8th to the 18th of October after the festival, according to business. According to social monitoring, the decline rate of pure benzene has reached 6.13%, which undoubtedly brings more cost negative to adipic acid market. At the same time, adipic acid manufacturers also have a certain space to make profit shipment possible. The market has gradually returned to plain, and the market has entered the inventory elimination cycle. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the reference price in the East China market is about 8300-8450 yuan / ton, and the quotation in South China is generally 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to adipic acid analyst of business and chemical branch, adipic acid is still sluggish and not getting better in the near future. At the same time, the whole chemical industry is also in a downward cycle. According to the Statistics Bureau, PPI fell 1.2% year on year in September, and the industry’s negative also covers the adipic acid industry chain. In addition, the lack of downstream demand is still the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the haze. Adipic acid market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week’s decline of pure benzene continued last week. On Friday, the price of pure benzene fell at 5300-5750 yuan / ton, while on Friday, the price of pure benzene fell at 5000-5600 yuan / ton, or 3.06%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: this week, the pure benzene market has a strong bearish atmosphere. The coking industry continues to break new lows. In addition, some downstream maintenance in East China and North China has greatly reduced the demand, and the pure benzene market continues to decline.

2. Crude oil: the overall international oil price rose first and then fell this week, with great volatility. Oil prices rose sharply last week as Iranian oil tankers attacked. In the later period, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth expectations and the increase of us oil product storage, which increased market worries and led to a sharp drop in oil prices. WTI was down 0.35% and Brent was up 0.54% compared with last Friday (October 11).

3. Related industries: this week, the downstream styrene continued to decline, down 5.86% week-on-week, with a large negative impact, and the pure benzene market is difficult to recover; this week, aniline rose slightly due to the preparation of shipping, with a small impact on pure benzene.

4. External market: the price of pure benzene in the external market continued to decline this week, and rose slightly on Friday, which was negative for the pure benzene market.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price will continue to consolidate at a low level, with a heavy bearish atmosphere in the market.

2. Domestic market: at present, there are many overhauls and weak demand in the North China market; some downstream devices are overhauled and weak market support; in addition, the styrene in the downstream has a large decline and the market mentality is short. However, pure benzene fell sharply for two weeks in a row, and the market dare not blindly catch up.

Overall, it is expected that the trend of pure benzene will continue to be weak next week, or continue to decline but not much.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of R134a refrigerant in China fell this week. On October 8, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers was 24333.33 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (12 days), the average price was 23833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.059% in the week, down 18.75% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the market price of R134a in the refrigerant market has declined significantly this week, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream has declined, and the cost support for the refrigerant is insufficient. The major air conditioning manufacturers have stepped out of the maintenance period, but the demand has not improved significantly. At present, the start-up of R134a manufacturers is low, the production is based on sales, the terminal demand is not high, the inventory of major air conditioning manufacturers is still sufficient, and the automobile industry is weak. Buying gas is flat, which is bad for refrigerant R134a. As of October 12, R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. has quoted 26000 yuan / ton, R134a of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 22500 yuan / ton, R134a of Zhejiang lengwang technology has quoted 23000 yuan / ton, R134a of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 25000 yuan / ton, R134a of Longxun trade has quoted 23500 yuan / ton, and R134a of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 27000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the mainstream price of upstream products of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is 9500-10000 yuan / ton, and the factory price of some manufacturers in the field remains low. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have a general operating rate, and the supply of goods in the field is sufficient, and the market price trend in the field is temporarily stable. The price of domestic trichloromethane of upstream products continued to decline, and the supply of the industry was relatively stable. Downstream major air-conditioning manufacturers have stepped out of the maintenance period one after another, the output of the automobile industry is flat, the demand for refrigerant R134a is not high, and there is no good support.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 40th week of 2019 (10.7-10.11), there are 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities falling were hydrofluoric acid (- 2.69%) and aluminum fluoride (- 1.64%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.87%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, the raw material end of refrigerant R134a is weak and the terminal demand is not high. At present, there is no obvious positive support. It is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will be weak and consolidated in the short term.

Price Trend

Business Club: MTBE market prices fell this week (Oct. 8-Oct. 12)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 5567 yuan/ton, down 4.57% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic gasoline prices fell this week, and after National Day, gasoline market bearish sentiment is strong, demand weakened, market turnover is light, alkylated oil, MTBE prices fell as a whole.

Industry Chain: This week, oil prices in the international crude oil market are generally weak. A new round of price adjustment of finished products is expected to be reduced by about 200 yuan/ton. The gasoline market is depressed, the replenishment operation is not active, and the market price is slightly down by 0.98%.

MTBE market: International oil prices are in a downward trend this week, market bearish sentiment has been increasing, and the gasoline market around the National Day did not appear a large number of replenishment operations, middleman raw material procurement just needs to perform relatively low, MTBE manufacturers shipment difficult. Alkylated oil prices were relatively strong in the early days of the National Day, but returned to the market after the festival, crude oil did not improve, downstream demand wait-and-see mood increased, and the price of alkylated oil showed a small yield.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the international crude oil market is still not optimistic next week. It is likely that the international crude oil market will be vulnerable to shocks, and the gasoline market is not well supported in substance. It is expected that MTBE market prices will continue to decline.

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline this week, ending the weekend at 9 780 yuan/ton, down 2.69% from 10 050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 24.58% from the same period last year.

Products: Hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline this week, the recent market situation is poor, the downstream refrigerant industry start-up rate remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, coupled with the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant to maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, some manufacturers continue to reduce factory prices, until the weekend, hydrofluoric acid in the southern region to discuss the mainstream. For 9000-9500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9000-10000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 9000-9500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was between 9000-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was between 9000-9500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was between 9000-10000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid remained low. The factory price of fluorite was 2866.67 yuan/ton by the end of the week. Domestic fluorite supply was normal, but the price of fluorite was weak. Low upstream cost price had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce start-up load, market supply capacity is normal, inventory pressure still exists. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12,000-14,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price trend of R134a maintained a low level, the plant start-up rate of production enterprises maintained a low level, the market demand for refrigerants decreased, and manufacturers mainly exported their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. Aluminum fluoride prices of downstream products have been declining recently, with a drop of 1.62% over the weekend of 10,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been declining due to the poor market.

Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the trading market of refrigerant industry in the downstream market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has always been at a low level, but hydrofluoric acid manufacturers reflect a serious loss, business community hydrofluoric acid analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will maintain a low level next week, the price will maintain 9750 yuan/ton left. Right.

Price data

According to the data of business associations, the price of sulphur market in East China maintained a steady trend this week. The average price of granular sulphur was 580.00 yuan per ton during the week, which was stable compared with last weekend and 55.42% lower than that of last year. On September 29, the sulphur commodity index was 31.82, which was the same as yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 69.36% from the peak of 103.84 on November 02, 2011. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic sulphur market is running steadily this week, and refineries in East China continue to decline in the week according to their own shipments. As of 27 days, the mainstream price of sulfur in Sinopec Sinopec area was about 580 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 490-570 yuan / ton, the mainstream sulfur price in North China was 480-530 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 450-490 yuan / ton, the price of solid liquid sulfur was stable, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China was 600-670 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 520-620 yuan / ton. That’s 20-50 yuan/ton lower than last week’s price.

Industry chain: the Shandong market in the downstream sulphuric acid market is temporarily stable this week, and the price is 216.67 yuan / ton within the week, down 56.88% compared with the same period last year. This week, the main manufacturers of sulfuric acid in the region are temporarily stable, with less factory stocks and less downstream demand. The downstream acid market has weak positive support, and it is expected that the market price will still fall.

Industry: At present, the domestic sulphur market demand is quiet, terminal purchasing on demand, strong market wait-and-see atmosphere, cold negotiation atmosphere, pre-festival refineries in all regions to maintain low inventory operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulfur analysts at the business think that at present, there is no guidance on the sulphur market, and the enthusiasm of the traders is weak. The operators are cautious and wait and see.

On September 29, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 29th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is stable on September 27. The closing price is US$779-781/ton FOB in Korea and US$798-800/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. Domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 27, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $55.91 per barrel, or $0.50. Brent crude oil futures fell to $61.91 per barrel, or $0.83. Last month, the world’s third largest crude oil importer shipped about 1.32 million barrels of Iraqi oil a day, about one third more than in July, or about one third more than in August 2018. The price of crude oil declined, which had a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and kept the price of xylene at a low level. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, up to 29 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 90%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 89%, due to the PTA market supply is sufficient, trading atmosphere is general, to buy by traders. Mainly, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, affected by crude oil price shocks downstream PTA market prices remain low, it is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6600 yuan/ton in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be weak in late September and the price weakened. As of September 27, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade mainstream was about 23250.00 yuan / ton, basically maintaining the level of last weekend.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The market of adipic acid in upstream PA66 has been adjusted mainly after a slight recovery in recent years. The adipic acid market has entered a stage bottom. The bottom-finding process has basically come to an end, and the market has stabilized, but the increase is very limited. And the market climate is still slightly rigid, distributors are mainly active in delivering goods, the market has some room for concessions, and there is still no centralized purchasing behavior. The main reason why adipic acid prices stopped falling and recovered steadily was that the cost side boosted the price of upstream pure benzene, which had risen by more than 15% since mid-August, according to business associations. On the supply side, the market supply is still abundant, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the plant start-up rate is high, and the market inventory and manufacturer inventory have increased. In terms of demand, downstream demand is relatively weak. The traditional “Golden Nine” market has not arrived as scheduled this year. The downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient. The downstream general depression is the main reason why adipic acid is difficult to get rid of the weak market. Adipic acid market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the short term. Spot supply in domestic PA66 market is abundant in late September. Recent news points to the expectation of further increase in supply, which is not conducive to easing the contradiction between supply and demand. Downstream factories just need to take delivery, demand has not improved and continued to weaken. The market buys gas insufficiently, the trader wait-and-see mentality is heavy. Businessmen have reduced their public quotations and made it difficult to deal with them in detail. The overall market trend is weak, and domestic PA66 is still weak and persistent in late September.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: late September domestic PA66 market weakness adjustment. Upstream adipic acid transverse plate adjustment has limited cost support for PA66. At present, the supply is abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the main contradiction in the domestic PA66 market. The enthusiasm of downstream reserve is not high, and the strategy of just taking goods is adopted. The market is short of gas, the traders are passive and wait-and-see, and the open quotation of the merchants is reduced. It is expected that PA66 will continue its disadvantaged consolidation in the near future.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average listing price of oil-based ethylene glycol in North China on September 6 was 5100 yuan/ton, up 2.68% from last week.

This week, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China fluctuated between 5145 yuan and 5195 yuan/ton, which was more obvious than last week’s price rise.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

The start-up rate of ethylene ethylene glycol plant in China is about 71.5%, coal ethylene glycol plant is about 55.46%, and the ring ratio is rising.

The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is about 646,800 tons, which has fallen and the depot is obvious.

The start-up load of the polyester plant is about 89.82%, with a slight decrease in the ring ratio. The production and marketing of polyester is about 28%, and the production and marketing are low.

Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident, the market price of East China rose sharply at the beginning of this week, but with the recovery of Saudi oil production capacity, the spot market price of Eastern China Ethylene Glycol was markedly rebounded.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethylene glycol analysts at the business association believe that the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated considerably this week, but fell less than the increase, and the overall price is still higher than last week. Inventories in the main port have declined, while the plant has been operating steadily, and the downstream production and marketing rate is low. It is expected that ethylene glycol will enter a turbulent pattern in the near future.