1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s (12.16-20) domestic polysilicon market did not continue the previous two weeks’ decline, with obvious signs of market stop (polysilicon fell by 4.84% in the first half of the month), but the market is still cold, and the pressure of supply and demand has not eased significantly. As of November 20, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall rise and fall of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0, and the average external quotation of enterprises was 5 4000-570000 yuan / ton, with the current price down about 30% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, and the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal has little change compared with the first ten days.

2、 Market analysis

First of all, from the perspective of market supply, the supply pressure is still large. In the middle of the year, domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially from the silicon plant with a high proportion of polysilicon materials. The performance of monocrystalline silicon is slightly better than polycrystalline silicon, which has occupied part of the demand of polycrystalline silicon. The expansion of monocrystalline production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. On the other hand, the monocrystalline inventory of silicon material enterprises has been exhausted in the previous few weeks during the period of low market price, and there is no more supply pressure. Therefore, the price of monocrystalline material can remain stable this week, and the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon can also be eased. This demand cannot be separated, mainly because At present, the polycrystalline material inventory of silicon material factory has not been greatly increased, and the enterprise does not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even under the situation that the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, the price stopped falling and stabilized this week.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since December, the demand for polysilicon has eased slightly, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has slowed down significantly. On the one hand, because the downstream demand is rigid, and on the other hand, the demand will be stimulated by the stock preparation before the Spring Festival from next week, so the polysilicon price has the power to stabilize and recover. The single crystal material part is affected by the stable demand and the decline of inventory water level In the future, if the demand is heated and accelerated, polysilicon will have an opportunity to stop falling and pick up.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market has stopped falling, mainly due to the improvement of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. On the other hand, in terms of demand, at present, the market demand has slightly improved, and the company’s stock has increased year ago. Therefore, the polysilicon market cannot be too pessimistic. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, and the possibility of a small rebound will not be ruled out.

I. price trend

PS market is stable in some small gains. The downstream factory’s purchase in the market turned positive, the market transaction was limited, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was heavy. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9150-10200 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 9750-11300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS is 9350 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 9500 yuan / ton for 525, and 9300 yuan / ton for Jiangsu saibaolong PS.

III. future forecast

PS market transaction still has not changed much, petrochemical enterprises offer stable. Most of the traders still follow the market, and the downstream factories are not active in attracting goods, so they continue to purchase on demand. It is expected that PS market will be stable and mainly move.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1616 yuan / ton, while the average weekly price was 1600 yuan / ton, down 1.03%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1500 yuan / ton, which is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1500 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than last week; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Huainan Audley chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1580 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week; linshengchang chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1700 yuan / ton, Xinxiang City, Henan Province. The market demand of nitric acid is general, and the quotation of enterprises is basically stable.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, is basically stable this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province on Friday was 6650 yuan / ton, up 9.02% from 6100 yuan / ton on Friday; downstream TDI, down 0.57% this week.

III. future forecast

Nitric acid analysts of the business community expect that the nitric acid market may continue to adjust in a narrow range.

I. price trend of lithium hydroxide:

The average price of lithium hydroxide as of December 13 was 57666.67 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the week, and the market of lithium hydroxide was stable for the time being this week, according to the bulk list data of business agency. In a three-month cycle, it fell 19.16% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium hydroxide is stable this week. Although the operating rate has been at a low level, the downstream demand has not been substantially improved, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the market is mainly stable. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai oujin Industrial Co., Ltd. is 60000 yuan / ton, that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai huaran industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price is a single discussion.

Industry chain: the upstream lithium carbonate market price fell (12.9-12.13) this week, up or down by – 2.52%. At present, the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, and the downstream enterprises’ stock up for Spring Festival is coming to an end. The future market demand is relatively pessimistic, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain low in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

3. Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the weak market of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches and the falling price have a negative impact on the cost of lithium hydroxide. Although the operating rate of lithium hydroxide is at a low level, the demand side is weak, and there is no strong positive factor support for the moment. It is expected that in the short term, the lithium hydroxide Market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of December 10, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13200 yuan / ton, which was 5.81% higher than that of the same period last month and 13.55% higher than that of the same period last year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong. This week, the price setting enterprises increased 300 yuan / ton, the cost increased, but the downstream just need to purchase cautiously, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the attitude of the industry is different. This week, there is a small amount of spot goods in circulation in the site. Most of the traders are reluctant to sell and deliver goods. The quotation is high and firm. However, under the high price of raw materials, the downstream is cautious and just needs small orders to purchase goods. The inquiry atmosphere is general. It is expected that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market will be more intensive, and continue to wait and see the actual transaction situation in the market.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong is relatively strong. This week, kostrong’s price was raised, the cost side slightly increased, and the company’s offer was firm, but the downstream was cautious. The MDI market of East China polymerization moved up and stable, and the offer of Kesi Chuang was increased by 300 yuan / ton, with a small amount of supply maintained. The downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. South China aggregate MDI market horizontal consolidation. Weekly pricing enterprises offer up, cost support is enhanced, downstream purchase on demand, market trading atmosphere is general, and the industry keeps stable to negotiate shipment.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, East China’s pure benzene was shocked and consolidated, which was weakened by the fall of styrene, and then domestic prices rebounded due to the sharp rise in external market. At present, the external market is at a high level, and the main theoretical window for upgrading has been opened. It is expected that the domestic pure benzene market will fluctuate around 5800 yuan / ton in a short term.

Aniline: the price of aniline enterprises has increased tentatively, and the downstream enterprises’ intention of receiving goods is acceptable. The cost support is strong, and it is expected that the domestic aniline market price will be increased in the short term, with reference to 6550 yuan / ton in East China and 6340 yuan / ton in North China.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

Acrylic market rose this week, according to a large number of data from the business club. As of December 6, the average price of acrylic acid was 8000 yuan / ton, up 1.69% compared with that at the beginning of the week (December 2). In a three-month cycle, it rose 1.27% year-on-year. On June 6, the main quotation of acrylic acid in China was 7300-9000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market rose this week. Due to the shutdown of some plants and the decrease of market supply, the price of acrylic acid rose. As of June 6, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7200 yuan / ton of common acid and 7800 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price has been discussed on a case by case basis. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, with main supply contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week (12.2-12.6), the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region fell, down 3.85%. At present, the market turnover has dropped to about 6720-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6720-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of supply and demand still exists, the market atmosphere is weak, the procurement is cold, and the downstream mentality is cautious. However, affected by the OPEC production reduction agreement or the extension and strengthening degree, the international crude oil rose sharply on the 4th and slightly on the 5th, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will recover in recent days. Acrylic acid downstream buy just need, more cautious wait-and-see.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3. Future forecast:

Acrylic analysts of the business community believe that the upstream propylene price fell and the cost support was weak. The supply of acrylic acid has decreased and the market price has increased. However, the downstream market is just in need of receiving goods. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 6 was 4833 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4680 yuan / ton. After a week’s consolidation, the price was 4710 yuan / ton by Friday, slightly rising.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

As of yesterday, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 59.85%, including non coal load of 58.96% and coal production load of 61.1%, with a steady decline.

Downstream polyester production and sales performance slightly contracted, some polyester factories successively issued maintenance plans, and overall demand gradually weakened.

As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 364400 tons, an increase of 25700 tons from Monday, an increase of 5.53%. Among them, Zhangjiagang has an inventory of 172400 tons, Taicang has an inventory of 45000 tons. This week, the average daily delivery of glycol in Zhangjiagang is 10700 tons, while that in Taicang is 35000 tons.

III. future forecast

According to glycol analysts of business agency, due to the early Yangtze River Closure and other reasons, glycol was delayed to arrive in Hong Kong. Due to the poor delivery situation after arrival this week, the accumulated storage of terminal glycol has become a reality. At present, the factory starts stably, while the downstream purchase intention is low, and it is expected that the price of glycol will continue to be consolidated in the near future.

I. price trend

Styrene prices edged higher this week. According to the data of business agency, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (November 25) was 7316.67 yuan / ton, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (November 29) was 7416.67 yuan / ton, up 1.37%, 10.28% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products:

Styrene market rose slightly this week. On November 25, East China: East China styrene closed at 7250-7300 yuan / ton. On November 29, East China styrene closed at 7400 yuan / ton, up about 100 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On November 25, South China styrene closed at 7400 yuan / ton, and on November 29, South China styrene closed at around 7500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, with the delivery price of the above factories. Styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend, and the rise of international crude oil has a certain boost to the market.

Industrial chain:

The international crude oil market continued to be positive, and the overall oil price fluctuated upward, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene are slightly consolidated, the downstream PS and EPS prices are stable, the enterprise’s operating rate is good, the factory’s production and sales are stable, and the purchase is on demand. On the whole, with the approaching of December, the amount of arriving styrene will increase, which will bring a certain impact on the supply of domestic styrene market. In the short term, the supply of styrene will increase, but the downstream price is firm, the commencement is good, the capacity of digesting styrene is good, and the acceptance of current styrene price is high. Overall, the styrene market this week forced a small increase, but in December, styrene still has the possibility to touch the cost line below 7200 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Styrene Market Consolidation rose slightly, the end of styrene unit overhaul and normal start-up of coal to hydrogen production in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company. Recently, the reforming unit will be opened, and the styrene test run is expected to be put on the agenda. The supply of styrene in the plant is good, and the arrival of goods in East China port is expected to rise. Therefore, the business analyst thinks that styrene may still touch the cost line below 7200 yuan / ton in December. The market should pay more attention to the guidance of the trend of external market and bulk futures to the market.

I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell sharply in November, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 560 yuan / ton, with a 9.19% drop in price. On November 30, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 46.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.91% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.86% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: weak market of ammonium sulfate in November. It began to fall sharply at the beginning of the month and remained weak from the middle to the end of the month. Domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate is weak, the market of coking ammonium sulfate is unstable, and the market is lack of confidence. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 500-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 500-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: domestic fertilizer use in the off-season continues, while agricultural fertilizer use continues to be light. The enthusiasm of terminal fertilizer preparation is not high, and the purchase of ammonium chloride is relatively light. In November, the urea market was mainly weak, and the price went down all the way, which had a certain impact on the ammonium chloride market. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not hot, the overall operating rate is low, the progress of winter storage is slow, the price is difficult to improve, and the market is not optimistic. After the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer held in November, there was no substantial favorable policy. The continuous weakness of raw material cost and the difficulty of price determination have led to the low enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises and the weakening of their enthusiasm for taking goods. It is expected that the trend of compound fertilizer will continue to be weak in the later stage, which will cause worrying demand for ammonium sulfate.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association think that the positive factors of ammonium sulfate Market are not clear at present, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not significant. The domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate has not improved, and the price of manufacturers is firm. Coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is short of payment support. It is predicted that the internal ammonium sulfate will keep stable operation in the later stage, and the coking ammonium sulfate will fluctuate mainly in narrow range.

I. price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell slightly this week (November 24-30)

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5567 yuan / ton, down 1.42% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

II. Market analysis

Product: on December 2, the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted or the line was increased. The mentality of MTBE market players was OK. This week, domestic MTBE prices fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased by 1.48%. The domestic gasoline market demand was boosted for a short time.

MTBE Market: MTBE manufacturers began to reduce prices and promote sales at the beginning of this week. As soon as the downstream needs to recover rapidly, the price of MTBE manufacturers stopped falling and rebounding under the improvement of shipment. In the southern market, the demand for downstream oil transfer is still average, but the local supply is still at a low level, and the manufacturer’s quotation slightly increased under the market spot shortage. At the same time, the price of alkylated oil rose this week. The market price of MTBE fell first and then rose this week, but the overall price fell slightly.

III. future forecast

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business club thinks: MTBE just needs to be stable, and the overall shipment of manufacturers is relatively smooth. Short term demand in the domestic gasoline market has boosted market prices, and MTBE market prices are expected to rise steadily in the short term.