1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market of propylene oxide rose as of January 6, with an average price of 9850 yuan / ton, up 1.55% compared with last Friday (January 3), and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 9800-9950 yuan / ton on January 6. On January 6, the propylene oxide commodity index was 61.31, up 0.94 points from yesterday, down 39.41% from 101.18 (2011-10-26), the highest point in the cycle, and up 47.03% from 41.70, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of propylene oxide rose on the 6th. The downstream product preparation just needs to be released before the festival, the propylene oxide plant has a smooth shipment, low inventory, good market transaction, and the prices of propylene oxide enterprises have been increased. On June 6, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 9950 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9700 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on January 6, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong Province was slightly higher. Affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously, and remained stable until January 5. On June 6, the price of individual enterprises rose slightly by about 50 yuan / ton, most of which maintained stability. At present, the market turnover is about 6850-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6850-6900 yuan / ton. On June 6, the market in some areas of the downstream polyether kept a narrow range and kept up with that of the raw material propylene oxide. The focus of the negotiation was slightly higher, but the downstream had strong resistance to high price raw materials and poor gas buying.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the price of raw material propylene is slightly higher, the cost support is strengthened, and the supply and demand fundamentals are well supported. However, with the weak transaction of new polyether orders in the downstream, the cautious attitude towards the purchase of propylene oxide will restrict the upward price of propylene oxide. It is expected that the propylene oxide Market in the short term will be dominated by a stalemate and finishing operation, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream mainstream markets Market transactions.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers was 2713.33 yuan / ton, up 1.62% year on year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market was temporarily stable, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 71.09 on January 3.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week is temporarily stable: the price of calcium carbide in oveganeng this weekend is 2620 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi coal industry this weekend is 2500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in China United Inner Mongolia this week is 2820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping Ningxia this weekend is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week In comparison, the offer is stable for the time being.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable this week, and the quotation of small materials is 730.00 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price decreased from 6925.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6850.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.08%, up 4.98% year on year. Although the downstream PVC market fell slightly this week, but compared with last year, the price is higher, and downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough, but the PVC market in the downstream is good, and customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise in shock in the first ten days of January.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel declined slightly this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 6599 yuan / ton, 0.62% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel was 280 yuan / ton, 1.55% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil first fell and then rose, with high volatility. On December 30, the domestic refined oil price was increased by 235 yuan / ton, but the weak market demand dragged down the market price.

Industry chain: Although the crude oil market has good news such as China and the United States reaching a phased agreement, Russia’s vacillation on production reduction has increased the downward pressure on oil prices. This week, the price of international crude oil market fluctuated.

Market: in terms of gasoline, the new year’s Day holiday has limited positive support for the gasoline market, and the province’s highways prohibit the passage of dangerous goods transport vehicles during the new year’s Day holiday, the refinery’s shipment is not smooth, and the gasoline price has declined slightly. In terms of diesel, as the low temperature period is approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rate of outdoor engineering and infrastructure construction is declining, while the logistics is blocked during the holiday, and the overall demand for diesel is in a relatively low season. Overall, the gasoline market is slightly better than the diesel market.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that the high price of international crude oil market fluctuates, but the demand for oil products market is limited during the new year’s Day holiday, and the replenishment of oil products in the later stage may boost the oil products market. The market price of refined oil is expected to be stable and positive next week.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, in 2019, the market of potash fell not only. At the beginning of the year, the average factory price of domestic light potash with tax included was 6975.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average factory price of domestic light potash with tax included was 6350.00 yuan / ton, down 8.96%. The current price dropped 8.14% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in 2019, the market of potassium carbonate is not only declining, but also influenced by the price of upstream raw material potassium chloride, which has no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three big mountains, i.e. large stock, weak demand and downward international price. The cost support is weak, and the market of potash in 2019 is weak. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market in 2019 is cold and light, the activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual trading volume of the market is insufficient, and the downstream demand has not improved, and the overall trading volume is slightly depressed. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is low, and the overall inventory is low, so the purchasing market momentum is low Generally, domestic potash market fell. According to the statistics of the business agency: in December, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to the potash analysts of the business association, recently, the domestic import of potash port bonded area has a large amount of goods, and the supply of potash goods is still at a high level. The price is difficult to improve in the short term. Under the situation of weak cost support, the potash manufacturers have a negative attitude. In the short term, the price of potash is mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

According to statistics, in December, the ex factory price of p-xylene rose. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 6712.5 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 6900 yuan / ton. The price trend rose 2.79%, down 18.82% year on year. The external price of PX rose. The domestic PX market was highly dependent on foreign countries. The external price rise was a good support for the domestic price.

In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has increased. The domestic PX operation rate is about 80%. The 600000 ton new unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been put into operation. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable. One line of Fuhai Chuang plant has been started. The operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal. The operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load. Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation The operation of the unit is stable, with the start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operating normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price has increased. Affected by the rise of international crude oil price, the external price of PX rose in December. As of December 30, the closing price of Asia was 837-839 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 857-859 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, several PX units in Asia are still under maintenance. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX external market rises favorably In the domestic market, the market price of p-xylene is higher.

In December, the closing price of international crude oil rose. As of the 30th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $61.68/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures market was $68.44/barrel. The closing price of crude oil rose, forming a cost supporting role for downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market rose.

 
In December, the price trend of the downstream PTA market rose. As of December 31, the negotiation in the PTA Market in East China was about 5000-5100 yuan, and the PTA supply end yishanhua and Sichuan energy investment had been put into maintenance. BP in Zhuhai planned to stop for maintenance this week to relieve the market pressure. The PTA operating rate was about 87.25%. The actual receiving mood in the downstream of the terminal was general, and the terminal customers gradually entered the closing stage. All parties were cautious It is hoped that the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will be reduced to 65%. Weaving enterprises show the phenomenon of reducing the number of orders and lack of stamina. In winter, the turnover of fabrics decreases month by month, while in spring, the order of fabrics is relatively limited. At the same time, close to the end of the year, most enterprises are reducing prices and destocking in order to collect funds. The improvement of the downstream market will form a positive support for the p-xylene market.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at the business agency, thinks that in the near future, the trend of crude oil price is rising, and the operating rate of downstream PTA market remains at a high level of 80%, but the terminal market has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the market price trend of p-xylene will remain stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 283.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.02% year on year. Overall, sulfuric acid rose slightly this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 45.65 on December 27

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose slightly, the inventory of manufacturers was small, and the downstream demand was good. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 240 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 190 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

（2） Industrial chain:

In recent years, the domestic sulfur market continued to decline. The trading atmosphere in the downstream monoammonium market was not good, the trading volume was light, and the trading volume of new orders was not ideal. The market of diammonium was also low and consolidated, and the downstream demand was less. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issued early orders, short-term construction was insufficient, and the supply was slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price fell, the downstream construction was general, and the product trend fell under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business and social sulfuric acid, the short-term market in Shandong is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

Aniline prices in Shandong and Nanjing were slightly higher this week, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, 0.78% higher than that of 6450 yuan / ton on Friday, and in Nanjing was 6800 yuan / ton, 0.74% higher than that of 6750 yuan / ton on Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5700-5950 yuan / ton, up 2.08% from last Friday. This week’s pure benzene port inventory continued to decline from last week, but data showed that inventory picked up in the middle of the week. In the week, Sinopec raised its listing price by 200 yuan / ton to 5950 yuan / ton, driving other enterprises to keep up. However, it is heard that there are large styrene factories in the downstream planning to shut down. In addition, enterprises in Shandong Province are not able to deliver goods smoothly. In the second half of the week, the market mentality is empty, and the price will drop slightly near the weekend.

Product: affected by the rising cost, aniline rose by 50 yuan / ton this week. After pure benzene Market weakened, aniline enterprises to stabilize the price of inventory.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the profit level of downstream product enterprises is low, and there is a large styrene plant planned to be overhauled, so the demand for pure benzene will be greatly affected. In addition, the closing of the arbitrage window of the Asian American market in the outer market has a negative impact. Pure benzene is expected to weaken slightly next week.

At present, aniline inventory has been released to a certain extent, and it is expected that the stable and weak operation of aniline will prevail in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of pure benzene and downstream demand in the later stage.

1、 Yellow phosphorus industry overview

Yellow phosphorus is also called white phosphorus. White or light yellow translucent solid. The production process of yellow phosphorus is relatively simple. Phosphorus ore, silica and coke are put into the electric furnace in a certain proportion and granularity, and decomposition and reduction reactions occur at a high temperature of more than 1300 degrees. Phosphorus steam and furnace dust are cooled and rinsed together to obtain products, and high-temperature slag is discharged directly from the electric furnace.

Figure: yellow phosphorus industry chain

Yellow phosphorus is located in the middle of the whole phosphorus chemical industry chain. The demand distribution in the lower reaches of yellow phosphorus is mainly concentrated in phosphoric acid (43%) and phosphorus trichloride (37%), and it is also widely used in specific applications. Yellow phosphorus is mainly used to produce sodium hypophosphite, phosphorus pentasulfide, red phosphorus, hexametaphosphate, phosphorus pentoxide, etc. its consumption accounts for about 15% of the total consumption of yellow phosphorus.

On December 24, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 103.09, down 0.82 points from yesterday, down 17.04% from 124.27 (2019-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 29.36% from 79.69, the lowest point on October 7, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Figure: yellow phosphorus industry chain index

On July 3, 2019, CCTV’s focus interview focused on the pollution of yellow phosphorus plant in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The tail gas from the electric furnace of yellow phosphorus plant is directly discharged into the atmosphere, and the phosphorus containing sewage is arbitrarily discharged. As soon as the news came out, the yellow phosphorus industry in Southwest China was comprehensively renovated, and the operating rate fell sharply. As the main producing area of yellow phosphorus, the quotation in Southwest China rose sharply. According to the “yellow phosphorus industry access conditions” issued on January 1, 2009, the existing yellow phosphorus devices, such as raw material dust recovery, energy consumption, comprehensive utilization of tail gas, mud phosphorus recovery, sewage treatment, safety assurance and comprehensive utilization of phosphorus slag, do not meet the requirements of these conditions, and must complete the relevant transformation within two years from the implementation of the entry conditions, and can continue to be accepted by the relevant departments Production.

2、 Yellow phosphorus production capacity

Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China’s yellow phosphorus industry has become the world’s largest producer of yellow phosphorus after more than 40 years of rapid development, with the production capacity accounting for 80% of the global production capacity. In recent years, under the national supply side reform, backward production capacity has been eliminated, and under the pressure of environmental protection supervision, yellow phosphorus production capacity and production have shown a downward trend. According to statistics, in 2018, the yellow phosphorus production capacity was 1.31 million tons, the production was about 810000 tons, and the industry operation rate was only 62%, down 12.7% year on year. The output is about 810000 tons. It is estimated that in 2019, the yellow phosphorus production capacity will be about 1.22 million tons, the output will be about 650000 tons, and the output will be reduced by about 200000 tons.

At present, China’s yellow phosphorus production capacity is mainly distributed in the provinces with relatively concentrated hydropower and phosphate resources, namely Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei and Sichuan. Among them, the production capacity of Yunnan accounts for 46% of the total production capacity of yellow phosphorus, and that of Sichuan accounts for 23%, while that of Guizhou and Hubei accounts for the third and fourth places, accounting for 19% and 7% respectively. At present, the start-up of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan is around 38%, that in Guizhou is around 14%, that in Guizhou is low, and that in Sichuan is around 23%. In November, China’s yellow phosphorus output was about 49500 tons, a decrease of 8300 tons compared with that in October. In November, the start-up of enterprises in Guizhou fell to a low level. At the same time, some enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan kept shutting down under the pressure of environmental protection, and the market supply declined.

3、 Import and export volume of yellow phosphorus in 2019

According to customs statistics, in October 2019, China’s yellow phosphorus export volume was 211.2 tons, up 100% month on month, down 36.54% year on year, with an average export price of US $2920.19/ton. Among them, 140.8 tons were sent to Japan, accounting for about 67%; 70.4 tons were sent to the Jinma customs area of taipeng, accounting for 33%. In 2019, the cumulative export volume is 922.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.05%.

In August 2019, 19.2 tons of yellow phosphorus will be imported from Vietnam; in October, 52.35 tons of yellow phosphorus will be imported from Vietnam again, in addition to US $136518, the average price of that month will be US $2607.79/ton; the cumulative import of yellow phosphorus will be 71.55 tons. At present, the general tax rate of yellow phosphorus import in China is 30%. Considering the cost of tariff and transportation, large-scale import of yellow phosphorus is still not feasible. It is predicted that in recent years, China’s yellow phosphorus is still mainly produced and sold by itself, with small import and export volume.

4、 Market analysis of yellow phosphorus in 2019

Figure: P value curve of yellow phosphorus products in 2019

As a small-scale variety, the market trend of yellow phosphorus in the first half of this year is similar to that of previous years, showing a calm trading pattern, and the price has been kept between 15000-16000 yuan / ton. However, a CCTV report in early July made the yellow phosphorus market immediately boiling. In a few days, the price jumped continuously, with a maximum increase of more than 10000 yuan. The highest price of this year appeared in July, when the yellow phosphorus price was 25000-26000 yuan / ton. After a period of unreasonable increase, the lowest price of yellow phosphorus in August returned to 15500 yuan / ton. In September, the overall supply was lower, and the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market began to rise again. From October to November, the yellow phosphorus market tends to run smoothly. In December, the downstream traders mainly wait and see. They are more cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. At present, the quotation is around 17800 yuan / ton.

5、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of business, social and chemical branch, in 2019, under the pressure of environmental protection policies, many production enterprises in China’s yellow phosphorus industry stopped production, and the operating rate could not be significantly improved. The yellow phosphorus market is always in a state of insufficient supply. After two large fluctuations, the yellow phosphorus price remained high. The price of yellow phosphorus has been consolidation at a high level for a long time. Most of the downstream traders are wait-and-see. The terminal customers have obvious resistance to the high-end price, and are cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. At the end of December, we will focus on the shutdown and rectification of yellow phosphorus enterprises. With the resumption of production of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou Province on the agenda, it is expected that yellow phosphorus prices will have a certain reduction space in 2020.

In 2019, the domestic methanol market fluctuated frequently. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the year was 2188 yuan / ton. As of December 23, the average market price of methanol in China was 2090 yuan / ton, down 4.48% in the year. The highest price in the year is 2572 yuan / ton on March 11, and the lowest price in the year is 1970 yuan / ton on July 31, with a maximum amplitude of 23.41%.

The methanol market in 2019 can be described as “mixed sorrow and happiness”. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the domestic methanol market price has two large-scale growth, the first time in the first quarter, with the increase of 16.91% from February 12 (2200 yuan / ton) to March 12 (2572 yuan / ton) after the lunar year. The second time was at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. From September 1 (1994 yuan / ton) to October 11 (2392 yuan / ton), the increase was 19.96%. A big price “dive” occurred in the middle of the second quarter, and the price continued to fall for a long time, from May 23 (2342 yuan / ton) to July 31 (1970 yuan / ton), down 15.88%.

First quarter:

In the first quarter of 2019, the market trend of methanol shows a “m” curve trend, and the market price of methanol increases significantly after the Gregorian new year and the lunar new year respectively. According to the monitoring data of business association, on January 1, 2019, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2188 yuan / ton, on March 31, 2019, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2378 yuan / ton, and the overall increase of methanol market price in the first quarter was 8.68%. The main reasons for the better price trend in the first quarter are as follows: the high international crude oil price, the increase of olefin purchase, the maintenance of methanol plant, etc., and the high price of ethylene, the prominent cost advantage of coal to methanol to olefin, and the good news of peripheral and methanol dominated the market. In addition, during the routine maintenance in spring, the maintenance of domestic methanol plants is concentrated; in addition, the maintenance in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, the United States and other places is also increasing; the trial production of Jiutai MTO 3 in Inner Mongolia on 20th, at that time, the circulation volume of goods in Inner Mongolia will be significantly reduced; after the two sessions, the formaldehyde installation in Hebei and Shandong will be restored in succession, the construction will be improved, and the demand will be gradually strong, further boosting the methanol market.

Second quarter:

The domestic methanol market in the second quarter of 2019 shows a weak trend. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic methanol market on April 1, 2019 is 2380 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic methanol market on June 30, 2019 is 2180 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8.40% in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the methanol market was not a “rush”. After a wave of “slight upward exploration” in early April, the methanol market in the whole April showed a “waterfall” decline: the main reason was that the maintenance devices were restored in spring, and the domestic methanol supply was restored; the international methanol production enterprises operated smoothly, and the imported goods arrived in Hong Kong at the end of April and the beginning of May, and the social inventory would be clear Obviously increased; affected by safety, environmental inspection and other factors, local market demand is limited, which seriously affects the methanol consumption of downstream production enterprises. Different from April, the domestic methanol market in May experienced a short period of “little Yangchun”: in the first ten days of May, the market was strong, most enterprises in the mainland did not have high inventory, the pre-sale was relatively ideal, and the sales pressure was not high; from June to July, some methanol plants were still planned to be overhauled, including Inner Mongolia gushilin, Shaanxi Shenmu, Yankuang Yulin, Xianyang chemical and other enterprises, with more overhauls and supply Showing a positive trend. The MTO unit of Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, was increased to 60-70% by the end of the month, and methanol sales were suspended; the MTO of phase II of Shandong Luxi and Nanjing Chengzhi is expected to be put into production in June July, and the downstream demand side is further opened. However, the good situation is not long. With the abundant local supply of methanol and the increase of imported goods, the market supply is at a high level; the downstream demand is more general, and some traditional downstream industries are in the off-season, such as formaldehyde. Under the background of strict environmental protection and safety supervision, the demand of some workshop enterprises is significantly reduced. At the end of the second quarter, the methanol market ended in a “downturn” situation.

Third quarter:

The market trend of methanol in the third quarter of 2019 presents a “W” curve trend. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market on July 1, 2019 is 2178 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic methanol market on September 30, 2019 is 2310 yuan / ton, with an increase of 6.06% in the second quarter. In July, the overall operation of domestic methanol remained at a high level. In August, the import is estimated to be around 850000 tons, and the market supply is abundant. The safety and environmental protection inspection continues to be severe, and the affected downstream end enterprises may reduce production or stop, which is not conducive to methanol consumption. Some domestic MTO enterprises that need to purchase methanol have maintenance plans, such as Jiangsu Shenghong, Shenhua Yulin and other enterprises, which greatly reduce the demand for methanol. In August, the methanol market rose first and then fell. The new methanol to olefin unit was put into operation one after another, and the early maintenance olefin unit returned to normal one after another. The methanol market rose slightly. However, with the approaching of the national day, the northern environmental protection supervision was strengthened, the downstream construction was limited, the procurement was gradually reduced, and the methanol market fell again. In September, due to the influence of goods preparation before the festival, the methanol inventory in the mainland and ports showed a downward trend. The mainland was mainly affected by the increase of olefin procurement, while the goods from Iran arrived in China decreased, so the fundamentals released good news, and the methanol market rose again.

The fourth quarter

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the domestic methanol market shows a weak trend, and the methanol market also ends in “cold winter”. According to the monitoring data of business association, the average market price of domestic methanol on October 1, 2019 is 2310 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic methanol as of December 24, 2019 is 2062 yuan / ton, with a decline of 10.71% in the fourth quarter. The main reasons for the “cold winter” are as follows: the price of methanol in US dollars and Taicang in RMB is in line with each other, the imported goods flow into the mainland market by virtue of the cost advantage; the domestic methanol futures fall sharply, affecting the market mentality; at present, the environmental protection regulations in various regions, and the downstream market may be lower. At the same time, the rising freight affects the market’s enthusiasm for transaction. Moreover, the port market continues to be low, which will continue to restrain the formation of the mainland market. In addition, the downstream markets are subject to environmental protection control, and there is a falling expectation for commencement, and the overall demand side is low. Since then, the methanol market has been “depressed”.

In general, 2019 is about to pass. In the coming 2020, it will strengthen in the short term under the expectation of macro good, stock up before the year, spring maintenance, etc., but the current situation of oversupply in methanol industry will continue, and the new capacity of methanol is far higher than the new demand in the downstream, so the oversupply pattern will be further intensified. Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate of traditional downstream enterprises such as dimethyl ether and formaldehyde is affected, and the demand for methanol is difficult to guarantee. In the medium and long term, methanol market will still be dominated by downturn.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong increased from 6966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6983.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.24%, down 14.84% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol rose slightly this week, with the commodity index of 51.35 on December 29.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream octanol manufacturers is temporarily stable: hualuhengsheng’s ex factory quotation of octanol this weekend is 7000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 7000 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 6737.69 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6717.69 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.30%, down 16.65% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory rose slightly this week. The DOP quotation increased from 7383.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.68%, down 15.69% year on year. Downstream customers have a high enthusiasm for octanol procurement, and the demand for octanol is general. The rise of DOP price has a positive impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate. After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was high. According to the octanol analyst of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late December may fluctuate and rise under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.