I. price trend:

On November 17, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 56.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.28% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.56% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: the market price of hydrogenated benzene this week rose slightly. By Friday, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China was 5250-5350 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. This week, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased slightly, the price difference with crude benzene narrowed, the loss space narrowed, the market focus moved up, and the negotiation went up significantly, among which, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. Although the recent maintenance of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was concentrated and the overall operation decreased, the price of raw material crude benzene rose this week, and the increase of crude benzene in some regions exceeded the increase of hydrogenated benzene, The profitability of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still below the cost line.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week’s crude oil range fluctuated, affected by economic data, progress of trade negotiations and US crude oil inventory. WTI was up 1% and Brent was up 2.46% compared with November 8. Pure benzene: at the beginning of the week, the market demand for pure benzene was weak and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, oil prices may continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of coking industry has improved, and the overall support of hydrobenzene is strong, but the power of pure benzene follow-up belt is still strong, the downstream support is limited, and the price of hydrobenzene in the future is mainly consolidated.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 15, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 12525 yuan / ton. The price fell 2.34% month on month and 2.53% year on year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic aggregate MDI quotation range is relatively strong. Near the end of the week, the tight situation of goods in the field is hard to change. The first-class agents have been firm this week, they are reluctant to sell goods, and the downstream inquiry and purchase are weak. The market has learned that the price of 141b foaming agent has a downward trend, and the demand for rigid foam may increase in the future. The market short-term supply side tension is hard to change, and Longzhong information expects the market price consolidation to continue today.

In terms of market, North China and Shandong aggregate MDI market digested the growth, the spot market was still tight, the downstream market was the most cautious, the market high-level trading was not smooth, and the industry kept stable shipment. East China aggregate MDI market horizontal consolidation. The market continues to be tight, the middlemen stick to their offer, the downstream is cautious, and the market is limited. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. There is no obvious change in the market fundamentals, the spot market is tightening, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the market price is gradually reduced.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, Asian pure benzene Market: in January, the Buyer intends to buy 650 US dollars / ton CFR in China, and in January, the Buyer intends to buy 645-649 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the negotiation of East China pure benzene market went up, with reference to 5400-5500 yuan / ton. Some of the offers were slightly higher, and the port inventory remained low. The external price of pure benzene continued to rise and boost, and it was difficult to find low-cost sources in the downstream. The negotiation of goods in the far month was 5250-5300 yuan / ton, and the short-term market remained stable.

Aniline: aniline market consolidation. This week, the enterprise has a ship to carry out, to prepare goods for the ship, but the northern enterprise stores the shipping pressure, and the enterprise keeps stable shipping.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2235.00 yuan / ton, down 5.89% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.95 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In the middle of November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

PS market overall trend is stable, business offers go with the market, calm atmosphere. Small and medium-sized downstream buyers are not willing to receive goods, and the firm offer is limited. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9200-10600 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 10200-11400 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS, 525, is 9400 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS, 525, is 9000 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was cold.

III. future forecast

The overall atmosphere of PS market is stable. The situation of market transaction and shipment continued to be flat. There were not many downstream factories to purchase, and the trading atmosphere was relatively weak. Both the supplier and the demander held a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that PS market will be stable, with minor adjustment.

I. price trend

In October 2019, the domestic antimony ingot Market fluctuated higher, with the average price of 39750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 42000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 5.66%.

On October 31, the antimony commodity index was 58.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.86% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.46% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

II. Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: this month, the price of antimony trioxide rose with the trend of antimony ingot. As of 31, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 37000 yuan / ton, and 99.8% at 39250 yuan / ton.

Domestic market: in the first ten days of this month, the spot market price is mainly higher, which is mainly determined by the strong price confidence of major domestic manufacturers. In the middle of this month, the price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot is increased by 2000 yuan / ton, while that of other models is increased by 2500 yuan / ton. At the end of the third quarter, we will enter the traditional peak season of the fourth quarter. The downstream stock is more active. The overall transaction of the market is good. Some traders are reluctant to sell, and the overall market atmosphere is good. In the late ten days, the market price stopped rising and entered consolidation after a rapid rise. Both sides of the market began to test each other and wait and see. As of the end of the month, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot was 41000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingot was 41500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingot was 42500 yuan / ton, and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot was 39000 yuan / ton.

III. future prospects

Next week’s economic data is still concentrated. In addition to the employment data, there are PMI data from various countries. It’s hard to be optimistic about the expected value, and there’s no room for a sharp rise in the low dollar index recovery. However, the worry about economic fatigue still makes the bullies of various metals afraid. If the market shows a correction, it may increase the willingness of downstream consumers to buy into the market. In November, the market will be closed The atmosphere will be much better than this week. Antimony ingot Market has experienced the rapid price rise in the first ten days of October, and now it has entered the consolidation trend. However, due to the fact that the current supplier action is still unified, although the market has some noise impact, the general trend has not changed, and it is expected that the high consolidation in the future will be the main trend.

Commodity index: on October 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 7.79% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.20% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on October 1, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16333.33 yuan / ton, and on October 30, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16166.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.02%; among them, on October 21, some local manufacturers in Henan Province lowered their quotation by 400 yuan, with a quotation range of domestic polyacrylamide cation (PAM, molecular weight of 12 million) /The quotation of anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) was reduced by about 200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: it is understood that upstream: in October, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market was significantly reduced, with the quotation of 12500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 11500 yuan / ton on the 11th, 11000 yuan / ton on the 23rd, 10900 yuan / ton on the 28th, with a range of 12.8%; downstream: the demand was relatively stable. Manufacturer: the factory in Henan main production area started normal this month, with stable supply of goods. Subject to the continuous reduction of upstream costs, the manufacturer’s procurement costs have been reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth. The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. In October, the manufacturer’s production was normal and the market mainstream quotation was stable.

Future forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that Henan manufacturers in the main production area have normal production, stable supply of goods and stable demand in the downstream this month, but the price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, has been greatly reduced by more than 12%. The quotations of some manufacturers and traders have been reduced. The future market still pays attention to the impact of the upstream cost changes on the price of polyacrylamide.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of DAP in China fell again. On October 17, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2416 yuan / ton, and on October 24, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2366 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.07%. On October 24, DAP commodity index was 70.59, down 0.5 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 31.45% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic market of DAP is light, and the market of DAP is weak. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2300-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 23050-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the phosphorus ore market as a whole maintains a stable situation. Large mining enterprises continue to digest inventory, keep more orders from old customers in the field, and maintain a small amount of procurement in the downstream. The supply and demand of domestic sulfur market has not improved, the port inventory is high, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the market is dominated by negative sentiment, and the operators wait and see the news guidance. The domestic liquid ammonia market is mainly in a small decline, and the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions after the festival. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore the low. The downstream demand is not good, more goods are taken on demand, and there is little trading.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of commodity prices on October 24, 2019, among which propane (1.05%), propylene (0.53%) and styrene (0.43%) are the top three commodities. There are 16 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were mixed xylene (- 2.37%), organosilicon DMC (- 1.91%) and ethylene (- 1.35%). The average price of this day was – 0.15%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of DAP of business association think that the market of DAP cannot be improved without good support. The cost support is weak, and the progress of winter storage is slow. The poor export of DAP can only be reduced to domestic sales, and the market demand is poor. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will continue to be sluggish in the later stage.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China last week was 1766 yuan / ton, while that in East China on October 28 was 1750 yuan / ton, down 0.94%.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to fall. On October 28, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1600 yuan / ton, which was stable; Anhui Jinhe offered 1650 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer. The market performance of nitric acid is still poor, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to stabilize, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly reduced.

Industrial chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material of the upstream of nitric acid, is mainly stable in the domestic liquid ammonia market according to the monitoring of the business association. The average market price of liquid ammonia was 3150 yuan / ton in the week of the 21st, and the manufacturer reported stability.

III. future forecast

The terminal demand of nitric acid market is still weak. According to the nitric acid analysts of the business association, the nitric acid market will still fluctuate in a narrow range.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of October 25, the quotation range of domestic top-grade DMF enterprises is 5500-5700 yuan / ton, the quotation of manufacturers on October 21 is 5600 yuan / ton, the quotation of manufacturers on October 25 is 5500 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 1.79%, and the DMF market is slightly down.

II. Market analysis

Products: domestic DMF market weak consolidation. It is reported that new products will be produced today after the restart of the plant in Shandong Province, and more attention will be paid to the new quotation. Other plants are stable and the inventory consumption is slow. The downstream market demand is reduced, some factories still keep a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the market to further clarify, the domestic DMF market is weak, and pay attention to the new market guidance. As of October 21, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng dmf5700 yuan / ton, Henan Junhua dmf5500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical dmf5400 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian dmf5400 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua dmf5350 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinmei daily and monthly dmf5300 yuan / ton.

III. Market Analysis

Products: Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions maintain rigid procurement, South China region has light trading and investment, the enthusiasm of the industry to enter the market is not good, waiting for the price to fall to the psychological level, the overall demand side shrinks, and the market situation remains stagnant.

IV. future forecast

According to DMF analysts of business agency, in the short term, DMF price consolidation and operation are the main factors, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the polysilicon market did not continue to rise two weeks after the festival. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the price is back to stability. The bottom rebound is temporarily over. Although the price has not broken through again, the market is still relatively rigid. As of October 18, the average price quoted by domestic enterprises is 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price is about 25% lower than that of last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is further narrowed.

II. Market analysis

In the middle of October, the domestic polysilicon market has been in stable operation. After experiencing the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the market has entered a stable period at present, with fair supply and demand. On the one hand, the market has sufficient supply and low maintenance rate of large factories, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, 15 domestic production enterprises are in normal production, and the signing rate of municipal manufacturers is also high. In October The orders of the manufacturers have been exhausted. Most of the manufacturers have signed until November. Recently, there is news in the market that Daquan new energy and Jingke have signed a two-year polysilicon supply agreement. According to the terms of the supply agreement, Daquan new energy will supply 12000 to 14400 tons of polysilicon and 15600 to 21600 tons of polysilicon to Jingke energy in 2020 and 2021, with monthly pricing. Overall, the overall market supply pressure is not big. On the other hand, the cornerstone of stable market supply also relies on the moderate growth of downstream demand. After entering October, downstream demand continues to warm up, and the operating rate of battery manufacturers generally increases compared with that in September. In addition, the capacity expansion and centralized release of downstream silicon rod and silicon wafer increase the demand for polysilicon. At the same time, the new capacity release of domestic polysilicon material ensures the same demand and supply. Step growth. In addition, the price of imported goods has been raised, but influenced by the recent strengthening of RMB exchange rate, the price of RMB converted from import volume denominated in US dollar has remained stable.

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the polysilicon market is stable, driven by the traditional peak season factor of “silver ten”, and also benefited from the situation of booming market supply and demand. At present, the supply side inventory is not much, and the market can maintain normal purchasing behavior. In the late October, if there is a sudden overhaul of the enterprise, the price is expected to rise, but at the same time We should continue to pay close attention to the downstream operating rate. It is expected that there will be little change in the near future, and the polysilicon market will still be strong for some time.