I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell sharply in November, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 560 yuan / ton, with a 9.19% drop in price. On November 30, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 46.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.91% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.86% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: weak market of ammonium sulfate in November. It began to fall sharply at the beginning of the month and remained weak from the middle to the end of the month. Domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate is weak, the market of coking ammonium sulfate is unstable, and the market is lack of confidence. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 500-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 500-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: domestic fertilizer use in the off-season continues, while agricultural fertilizer use continues to be light. The enthusiasm of terminal fertilizer preparation is not high, and the purchase of ammonium chloride is relatively light. In November, the urea market was mainly weak, and the price went down all the way, which had a certain impact on the ammonium chloride market. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not hot, the overall operating rate is low, the progress of winter storage is slow, the price is difficult to improve, and the market is not optimistic. After the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer held in November, there was no substantial favorable policy. The continuous weakness of raw material cost and the difficulty of price determination have led to the low enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises and the weakening of their enthusiasm for taking goods. It is expected that the trend of compound fertilizer will continue to be weak in the later stage, which will cause worrying demand for ammonium sulfate.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association think that the positive factors of ammonium sulfate Market are not clear at present, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not significant. The domestic and foreign demand of domestic ammonium sulfate has not improved, and the price of manufacturers is firm. Coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is short of payment support. It is predicted that the internal ammonium sulfate will keep stable operation in the later stage, and the coking ammonium sulfate will fluctuate mainly in narrow range.

I. price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell slightly this week (November 24-30)

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5567 yuan / ton, down 1.42% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

II. Market analysis

Product: on December 2, the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted or the line was increased. The mentality of MTBE market players was OK. This week, domestic MTBE prices fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased by 1.48%. The domestic gasoline market demand was boosted for a short time.

MTBE Market: MTBE manufacturers began to reduce prices and promote sales at the beginning of this week. As soon as the downstream needs to recover rapidly, the price of MTBE manufacturers stopped falling and rebounding under the improvement of shipment. In the southern market, the demand for downstream oil transfer is still average, but the local supply is still at a low level, and the manufacturer’s quotation slightly increased under the market spot shortage. At the same time, the price of alkylated oil rose this week. The market price of MTBE fell first and then rose this week, but the overall price fell slightly.

III. future forecast

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business club thinks: MTBE just needs to be stable, and the overall shipment of manufacturers is relatively smooth. Short term demand in the domestic gasoline market has boosted market prices, and MTBE market prices are expected to rise steadily in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on November 1 was 1966 yuan / ton, and that on November 27 was 1950 yuan / ton, down 0.85% in the month. On November 27, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.27% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 5.12% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 1 was 2366 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 27 was 2285 yuan / ton, down 3.45% in the month. On November 27, DAP commodity index was 68.16, down 1.49 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 33.81% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Monoammonium: in November, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to be weak, and the enterprise operating rate was about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: in November, the domestic market of diammonium phosphate was in a downturn, and the enterprise’s operating rate was about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the domestic sulfur market demand is sluggish, the port inventory continues to increase, and the consumption is slow. The operators are obviously short of the future market, and the atmosphere of stalemate is strong. On the other hand, after the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, there was no clear message guidance in the market, the external support was weak, the on-site negotiation atmosphere was cold, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. The domestic phosphorus ore market continued to operate in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some areas were slightly adjusted. The prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other areas remained high. The prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang area were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and the prices in the near future remained stable. Liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain weak, mainly due to weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not rule out the possibility of continuing to explore low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodities and 5 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were ammonium sulfate (0.30%); the main commodities that fell were ammonium chloride (- 2.63%), urea (- 2.35%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%). This week’s average was – 0.61%. In the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (0.53%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This week’s average was – 0.19%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the market of ammonium phosphate keeps low. In some enterprises, the price of raw materials has fallen due to the maintenance of devices, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand side has not improved, and the winter storage market is worrying. No favorable policies have been issued after the conference. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the headlines of phosphorus chemical industry to learn more about the market.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of business association, the price of power coal continued to remain weak last week (11.18-11.22). At the beginning of the week, the price of power coal was around 559 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was around 558 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.18% overall.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

With the arrival of domestic winter heating season, the domestic demand for power coal has improved, which has certain support for the price of power coal. According to the business agency, as of November 21, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.7227 million tons, with a daily consumption of 640500 tons and a usable life of 26.1 days.

The number of imported coal in China has decreased from a month on month basis. In the short term, power coal will be supported from the supply side. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in October 2019, China imported 11.53 million tons of power coal (including bituminous coal and sub bituminous coal, but excluding lignite, the same below), an increase of 2.47 million tons year on year, an increase of 27.26%, a decrease of 2.02 million tons month on month, a decrease of 14.91%. From January to October 2019, the total import of power coal was 107.05 million tons, an increase of 5.24 million tons, or 5.15%.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that: on the one hand, the supply of power coal is still sufficient, on the other hand, with the arrival of winter heating season demand has improved, overall, the price of power coal will maintain a weak balance in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (11.18-22) domestic polysilicon did not maintain a strong market in the first ten days, the price fell slightly, the market gradually cooled down, and the pressure of supply and demand increased. As of November 22, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0.54%. The average external quotation of enterprises was 60000-62000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell 25% year on year About%. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 70000-730 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that of the first ten days.

II. Market analysis

First of all, from the perspective of market supply, it is still dominated by oversupply. In the middle of the year, the domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient. By the end of the week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate, and the early-stage maintenance devices have basically started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially the high proportion of polysilicon materials Silicon material factory. At present, there are 15 polysilicon producing enterprises in China, with an actual capacity of 396000 tons / year. Although some of them produce single crystals, the production of polysilicon materials is still close to 50% of the production. At present, the price of polysilicon is loose, but there is not much reduction. This is mainly because the inventory of polysilicon materials in silicon factories has not been greatly increased, and the enterprises do not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even though the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, this week’s price has not been significantly reduced.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since November, the demand for polysilicon has gradually cooled, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has not been significantly expanded, mainly because the downstream demand is rigid, but the downstream polysilicon chips present the same situation of unstable supply and demand as the upstream. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%, because the downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises are open Because of the sharp decline in the production rate, the demand for polysilicon has been reduced. Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market is loose, which is mainly due to the lack of timely follow-up of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. In particular, in the current situation that market demand has peaked, we cannot be overly optimistic about polysilicon market. It is expected that the market will be weak and stable in the near future, and we cannot rule out the possibility of continuing to explore in a small scale.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market turnover slightly shrank, the mentality was cautious, and the inventory remained low. This week, the domestic isomeric xylene market slightly increased by about 0.4%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market transaction is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6180-6230 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and the port inventory remained low, about 21000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.95% at sight, Brent futures up 0.33%, WTI futures up 1.30% and Dubai futures up 0.31%.

In the downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week is temporarily stable, while the external market trend is stable. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market is a little tight this week, but due to the news of new production capacity and production, and the weak trend

of raw material market, the PTA market is mainly weak in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is temporarily stable, with a quotation of 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene is stable, and it is expected that the weak market of o-benzene will be adjusted in the future.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. In general, toluene market is expected to continue the shock correction trend next Tuesday.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market this week showed an upward trend. The average price of ethylene at the weekend was $843.50/ton, 1.75% higher than the price at the beginning of the week of $829.00/ton, and the current price was 12.68% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene is on the rise this week. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose sharply. As of the weekend, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $797-805 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / ton. Prices in the European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the end of the week, the price in the European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $909-912 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $821-832 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the week, the price was 435-447 USD / ton. Overall, the ethylene market rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on November 14, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 56.77 US dollars / barrel, down 0.35 US dollars or 0.6% from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 62.28 US dollars / barrel, down 0.09 US dollars or 0.1% from the previous trading day. On the news, US crude oil production reached a record high, US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, and US and European crude oil futures ended slightly lower. However, the oil price drop is relatively low, which can not reflect the effect of ethylene falling. In addition, OPEC forecast in the report that the growth of economic and oil demand will be stable in 2020, and the external market of ethylene will rise. After a small increase in the price of styrene in the downstream, consolidation and high consolidation of ethanol price supported the price of ethylene.

3. Future forecast:

Ethylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, the periodic rebound of crude oil is temporary intermediary. Although the tension of international trade has been relieved temporarily, the root problem has not been effectively solved. The next is the impact of economic growth slowdown and the game of oil price. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of business club expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

I. price trend

Domestic toluene market rose 4.83% this week due to the recovery of market transactions and the rebound of international crude oil prices, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, this week’s market has slightly improved, and the volume of transactions has increased. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5750-5820 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume picked up and the port inventory decreased slightly, about 26000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.18% at sight, Brent futures up 1.21%, WTI futures down 0.66% and Dubai futures up 2.73%.

On the downstream side, on the TDI side, the price trend of the domestic TDI market this week slightly decreased, and the average market price in East China at the weekend was about 12800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will be weak in the later period. On the PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week was temporarily stable, while the external price rose slightly. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX in the short term will remain around 6800 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next week.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China rose this week, with the quotation rising 19.18% from 243.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 290.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, 58.18% higher than the same period last year. Overall, hydrochloric acid rose this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 76.32 on November 15.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week, the price of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers rose, the overall market was high consolidation. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 200 yuan / ton, temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is 120 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

The market price of upstream liquid chlorine has increased, which gives certain support to hydrochloric acid. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still mainly purchase hydrochloric acid according to early demand. However, the Transport Certificate in Shandong is difficult to handle, which leads to a large increase in dealer prices. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be high and consolidated, and the by-product acid is still impacting the market. The delivery pressure of hydrochloric acid is large, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Analysts of business club think: the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, giving hydrochloric acid some support, and the downstream rare earth and fuel demand rises, but the transportation is a problem. Business analysts believe that the recent high consolidation of hydrochloric acid market.

I. price trend:

On November 17, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 56.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.28% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.56% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: the market price of hydrogenated benzene this week rose slightly. By Friday, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China was 5250-5350 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. This week, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased slightly, the price difference with crude benzene narrowed, the loss space narrowed, the market focus moved up, and the negotiation went up significantly, among which, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. Although the recent maintenance of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was concentrated and the overall operation decreased, the price of raw material crude benzene rose this week, and the increase of crude benzene in some regions exceeded the increase of hydrogenated benzene, The profitability of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still below the cost line.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week’s crude oil range fluctuated, affected by economic data, progress of trade negotiations and US crude oil inventory. WTI was up 1% and Brent was up 2.46% compared with November 8. Pure benzene: at the beginning of the week, the market demand for pure benzene was weak and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, oil prices may continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of coking industry has improved, and the overall support of hydrobenzene is strong, but the power of pure benzene follow-up belt is still strong, the downstream support is limited, and the price of hydrobenzene in the future is mainly consolidated.