In 2019, the domestic methanol market fluctuated frequently. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the year was 2188 yuan / ton. As of December 23, the average market price of methanol in China was 2090 yuan / ton, down 4.48% in the year. The highest price in the year is 2572 yuan / ton on March 11, and the lowest price in the year is 1970 yuan / ton on July 31, with a maximum amplitude of 23.41%.

The methanol market in 2019 can be described as “mixed sorrow and happiness”. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the domestic methanol market price has two large-scale growth, the first time in the first quarter, with the increase of 16.91% from February 12 (2200 yuan / ton) to March 12 (2572 yuan / ton) after the lunar year. The second time was at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. From September 1 (1994 yuan / ton) to October 11 (2392 yuan / ton), the increase was 19.96%. A big price “dive” occurred in the middle of the second quarter, and the price continued to fall for a long time, from May 23 (2342 yuan / ton) to July 31 (1970 yuan / ton), down 15.88%.

First quarter:

In the first quarter of 2019, the market trend of methanol shows a “m” curve trend, and the market price of methanol increases significantly after the Gregorian new year and the lunar new year respectively. According to the monitoring data of business association, on January 1, 2019, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2188 yuan / ton, on March 31, 2019, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2378 yuan / ton, and the overall increase of methanol market price in the first quarter was 8.68%. The main reasons for the better price trend in the first quarter are as follows: the high international crude oil price, the increase of olefin purchase, the maintenance of methanol plant, etc., and the high price of ethylene, the prominent cost advantage of coal to methanol to olefin, and the good news of peripheral and methanol dominated the market. In addition, during the routine maintenance in spring, the maintenance of domestic methanol plants is concentrated; in addition, the maintenance in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, the United States and other places is also increasing; the trial production of Jiutai MTO 3 in Inner Mongolia on 20th, at that time, the circulation volume of goods in Inner Mongolia will be significantly reduced; after the two sessions, the formaldehyde installation in Hebei and Shandong will be restored in succession, the construction will be improved, and the demand will be gradually strong, further boosting the methanol market.

Second quarter:

The domestic methanol market in the second quarter of 2019 shows a weak trend. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic methanol market on April 1, 2019 is 2380 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic methanol market on June 30, 2019 is 2180 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8.40% in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the methanol market was not a “rush”. After a wave of “slight upward exploration” in early April, the methanol market in the whole April showed a “waterfall” decline: the main reason was that the maintenance devices were restored in spring, and the domestic methanol supply was restored; the international methanol production enterprises operated smoothly, and the imported goods arrived in Hong Kong at the end of April and the beginning of May, and the social inventory would be clear Obviously increased; affected by safety, environmental inspection and other factors, local market demand is limited, which seriously affects the methanol consumption of downstream production enterprises. Different from April, the domestic methanol market in May experienced a short period of “little Yangchun”: in the first ten days of May, the market was strong, most enterprises in the mainland did not have high inventory, the pre-sale was relatively ideal, and the sales pressure was not high; from June to July, some methanol plants were still planned to be overhauled, including Inner Mongolia gushilin, Shaanxi Shenmu, Yankuang Yulin, Xianyang chemical and other enterprises, with more overhauls and supply Showing a positive trend. The MTO unit of Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, was increased to 60-70% by the end of the month, and methanol sales were suspended; the MTO of phase II of Shandong Luxi and Nanjing Chengzhi is expected to be put into production in June July, and the downstream demand side is further opened. However, the good situation is not long. With the abundant local supply of methanol and the increase of imported goods, the market supply is at a high level; the downstream demand is more general, and some traditional downstream industries are in the off-season, such as formaldehyde. Under the background of strict environmental protection and safety supervision, the demand of some workshop enterprises is significantly reduced. At the end of the second quarter, the methanol market ended in a “downturn” situation.

Third quarter:

The market trend of methanol in the third quarter of 2019 presents a “W” curve trend. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market on July 1, 2019 is 2178 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic methanol market on September 30, 2019 is 2310 yuan / ton, with an increase of 6.06% in the second quarter. In July, the overall operation of domestic methanol remained at a high level. In August, the import is estimated to be around 850000 tons, and the market supply is abundant. The safety and environmental protection inspection continues to be severe, and the affected downstream end enterprises may reduce production or stop, which is not conducive to methanol consumption. Some domestic MTO enterprises that need to purchase methanol have maintenance plans, such as Jiangsu Shenghong, Shenhua Yulin and other enterprises, which greatly reduce the demand for methanol. In August, the methanol market rose first and then fell. The new methanol to olefin unit was put into operation one after another, and the early maintenance olefin unit returned to normal one after another. The methanol market rose slightly. However, with the approaching of the national day, the northern environmental protection supervision was strengthened, the downstream construction was limited, the procurement was gradually reduced, and the methanol market fell again. In September, due to the influence of goods preparation before the festival, the methanol inventory in the mainland and ports showed a downward trend. The mainland was mainly affected by the increase of olefin procurement, while the goods from Iran arrived in China decreased, so the fundamentals released good news, and the methanol market rose again.

The fourth quarter

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the domestic methanol market shows a weak trend, and the methanol market also ends in “cold winter”. According to the monitoring data of business association, the average market price of domestic methanol on October 1, 2019 is 2310 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic methanol as of December 24, 2019 is 2062 yuan / ton, with a decline of 10.71% in the fourth quarter. The main reasons for the “cold winter” are as follows: the price of methanol in US dollars and Taicang in RMB is in line with each other, the imported goods flow into the mainland market by virtue of the cost advantage; the domestic methanol futures fall sharply, affecting the market mentality; at present, the environmental protection regulations in various regions, and the downstream market may be lower. At the same time, the rising freight affects the market’s enthusiasm for transaction. Moreover, the port market continues to be low, which will continue to restrain the formation of the mainland market. In addition, the downstream markets are subject to environmental protection control, and there is a falling expectation for commencement, and the overall demand side is low. Since then, the methanol market has been “depressed”.

In general, 2019 is about to pass. In the coming 2020, it will strengthen in the short term under the expectation of macro good, stock up before the year, spring maintenance, etc., but the current situation of oversupply in methanol industry will continue, and the new capacity of methanol is far higher than the new demand in the downstream, so the oversupply pattern will be further intensified. Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate of traditional downstream enterprises such as dimethyl ether and formaldehyde is affected, and the demand for methanol is difficult to guarantee. In the medium and long term, methanol market will still be dominated by downturn.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong increased from 6966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6983.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.24%, down 14.84% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol rose slightly this week, with the commodity index of 51.35 on December 29.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream octanol manufacturers is temporarily stable: hualuhengsheng’s ex factory quotation of octanol this weekend is 7000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 7000 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 6737.69 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6717.69 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.30%, down 16.65% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory rose slightly this week. The DOP quotation increased from 7383.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.68%, down 15.69% year on year. Downstream customers have a high enthusiasm for octanol procurement, and the demand for octanol is general. The rise of DOP price has a positive impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate. After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was high. According to the octanol analyst of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late December may fluctuate and rise under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s (12.16-20) domestic polysilicon market did not continue the previous two weeks’ decline, with obvious signs of market stop (polysilicon fell by 4.84% in the first half of the month), but the market is still cold, and the pressure of supply and demand has not eased significantly. As of November 20, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall rise and fall of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0, and the average external quotation of enterprises was 5 4000-570000 yuan / ton, with the current price down about 30% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, and the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal has little change compared with the first ten days.

2、 Market analysis

First of all, from the perspective of market supply, the supply pressure is still large. In the middle of the year, domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially from the silicon plant with a high proportion of polysilicon materials. The performance of monocrystalline silicon is slightly better than polycrystalline silicon, which has occupied part of the demand of polycrystalline silicon. The expansion of monocrystalline production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. On the other hand, the monocrystalline inventory of silicon material enterprises has been exhausted in the previous few weeks during the period of low market price, and there is no more supply pressure. Therefore, the price of monocrystalline material can remain stable this week, and the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon can also be eased. This demand cannot be separated, mainly because At present, the polycrystalline material inventory of silicon material factory has not been greatly increased, and the enterprise does not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even under the situation that the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, the price stopped falling and stabilized this week.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since December, the demand for polysilicon has eased slightly, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has slowed down significantly. On the one hand, because the downstream demand is rigid, and on the other hand, the demand will be stimulated by the stock preparation before the Spring Festival from next week, so the polysilicon price has the power to stabilize and recover. The single crystal material part is affected by the stable demand and the decline of inventory water level In the future, if the demand is heated and accelerated, polysilicon will have an opportunity to stop falling and pick up.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market has stopped falling, mainly due to the improvement of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. On the other hand, in terms of demand, at present, the market demand has slightly improved, and the company’s stock has increased year ago. Therefore, the polysilicon market cannot be too pessimistic. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, and the possibility of a small rebound will not be ruled out.

I. price trend

PS market is stable in some small gains. The downstream factory’s purchase in the market turned positive, the market transaction was limited, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was heavy. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9150-10200 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 9750-11300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS is 9350 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 9500 yuan / ton for 525, and 9300 yuan / ton for Jiangsu saibaolong PS.

III. future forecast

PS market transaction still has not changed much, petrochemical enterprises offer stable. Most of the traders still follow the market, and the downstream factories are not active in attracting goods, so they continue to purchase on demand. It is expected that PS market will be stable and mainly move.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1616 yuan / ton, while the average weekly price was 1600 yuan / ton, down 1.03%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1500 yuan / ton, which is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1500 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than last week; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Huainan Audley chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1580 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week; linshengchang chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1700 yuan / ton, Xinxiang City, Henan Province. The market demand of nitric acid is general, and the quotation of enterprises is basically stable.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, is basically stable this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province on Friday was 6650 yuan / ton, up 9.02% from 6100 yuan / ton on Friday; downstream TDI, down 0.57% this week.

III. future forecast

Nitric acid analysts of the business community expect that the nitric acid market may continue to adjust in a narrow range.

I. price trend of lithium hydroxide:

The average price of lithium hydroxide as of December 13 was 57666.67 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the week, and the market of lithium hydroxide was stable for the time being this week, according to the bulk list data of business agency. In a three-month cycle, it fell 19.16% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium hydroxide is stable this week. Although the operating rate has been at a low level, the downstream demand has not been substantially improved, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the market is mainly stable. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai oujin Industrial Co., Ltd. is 60000 yuan / ton, that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai huaran industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price is a single discussion.

Industry chain: the upstream lithium carbonate market price fell (12.9-12.13) this week, up or down by – 2.52%. At present, the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, and the downstream enterprises’ stock up for Spring Festival is coming to an end. The future market demand is relatively pessimistic, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain low in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

3. Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the weak market of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches and the falling price have a negative impact on the cost of lithium hydroxide. Although the operating rate of lithium hydroxide is at a low level, the demand side is weak, and there is no strong positive factor support for the moment. It is expected that in the short term, the lithium hydroxide Market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of December 10, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13200 yuan / ton, which was 5.81% higher than that of the same period last month and 13.55% higher than that of the same period last year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong. This week, the price setting enterprises increased 300 yuan / ton, the cost increased, but the downstream just need to purchase cautiously, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the attitude of the industry is different. This week, there is a small amount of spot goods in circulation in the site. Most of the traders are reluctant to sell and deliver goods. The quotation is high and firm. However, under the high price of raw materials, the downstream is cautious and just needs small orders to purchase goods. The inquiry atmosphere is general. It is expected that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market will be more intensive, and continue to wait and see the actual transaction situation in the market.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong is relatively strong. This week, kostrong’s price was raised, the cost side slightly increased, and the company’s offer was firm, but the downstream was cautious. The MDI market of East China polymerization moved up and stable, and the offer of Kesi Chuang was increased by 300 yuan / ton, with a small amount of supply maintained. The downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. South China aggregate MDI market horizontal consolidation. Weekly pricing enterprises offer up, cost support is enhanced, downstream purchase on demand, market trading atmosphere is general, and the industry keeps stable to negotiate shipment.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, East China’s pure benzene was shocked and consolidated, which was weakened by the fall of styrene, and then domestic prices rebounded due to the sharp rise in external market. At present, the external market is at a high level, and the main theoretical window for upgrading has been opened. It is expected that the domestic pure benzene market will fluctuate around 5800 yuan / ton in a short term.

Aniline: the price of aniline enterprises has increased tentatively, and the downstream enterprises’ intention of receiving goods is acceptable. The cost support is strong, and it is expected that the domestic aniline market price will be increased in the short term, with reference to 6550 yuan / ton in East China and 6340 yuan / ton in North China.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

Acrylic market rose this week, according to a large number of data from the business club. As of December 6, the average price of acrylic acid was 8000 yuan / ton, up 1.69% compared with that at the beginning of the week (December 2). In a three-month cycle, it rose 1.27% year-on-year. On June 6, the main quotation of acrylic acid in China was 7300-9000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market rose this week. Due to the shutdown of some plants and the decrease of market supply, the price of acrylic acid rose. As of June 6, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7200 yuan / ton of common acid and 7800 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price has been discussed on a case by case basis. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, with main supply contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week (12.2-12.6), the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region fell, down 3.85%. At present, the market turnover has dropped to about 6720-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6720-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of supply and demand still exists, the market atmosphere is weak, the procurement is cold, and the downstream mentality is cautious. However, affected by the OPEC production reduction agreement or the extension and strengthening degree, the international crude oil rose sharply on the 4th and slightly on the 5th, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will recover in recent days. Acrylic acid downstream buy just need, more cautious wait-and-see.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3. Future forecast:

Acrylic analysts of the business community believe that the upstream propylene price fell and the cost support was weak. The supply of acrylic acid has decreased and the market price has increased. However, the downstream market is just in need of receiving goods. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 6 was 4833 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4680 yuan / ton. After a week’s consolidation, the price was 4710 yuan / ton by Friday, slightly rising.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

As of yesterday, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 59.85%, including non coal load of 58.96% and coal production load of 61.1%, with a steady decline.

Downstream polyester production and sales performance slightly contracted, some polyester factories successively issued maintenance plans, and overall demand gradually weakened.

As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 364400 tons, an increase of 25700 tons from Monday, an increase of 5.53%. Among them, Zhangjiagang has an inventory of 172400 tons, Taicang has an inventory of 45000 tons. This week, the average daily delivery of glycol in Zhangjiagang is 10700 tons, while that in Taicang is 35000 tons.

III. future forecast

According to glycol analysts of business agency, due to the early Yangtze River Closure and other reasons, glycol was delayed to arrive in Hong Kong. Due to the poor delivery situation after arrival this week, the accumulated storage of terminal glycol has become a reality. At present, the factory starts stably, while the downstream purchase intention is low, and it is expected that the price of glycol will continue to be consolidated in the near future.

I. price trend

Styrene prices edged higher this week. According to the data of business agency, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (November 25) was 7316.67 yuan / ton, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (November 29) was 7416.67 yuan / ton, up 1.37%, 10.28% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products:

Styrene market rose slightly this week. On November 25, East China: East China styrene closed at 7250-7300 yuan / ton. On November 29, East China styrene closed at 7400 yuan / ton, up about 100 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On November 25, South China styrene closed at 7400 yuan / ton, and on November 29, South China styrene closed at around 7500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, with the delivery price of the above factories. Styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend, and the rise of international crude oil has a certain boost to the market.

Industrial chain:

The international crude oil market continued to be positive, and the overall oil price fluctuated upward, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene are slightly consolidated, the downstream PS and EPS prices are stable, the enterprise’s operating rate is good, the factory’s production and sales are stable, and the purchase is on demand. On the whole, with the approaching of December, the amount of arriving styrene will increase, which will bring a certain impact on the supply of domestic styrene market. In the short term, the supply of styrene will increase, but the downstream price is firm, the commencement is good, the capacity of digesting styrene is good, and the acceptance of current styrene price is high. Overall, the styrene market this week forced a small increase, but in December, styrene still has the possibility to touch the cost line below 7200 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Styrene Market Consolidation rose slightly, the end of styrene unit overhaul and normal start-up of coal to hydrogen production in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company. Recently, the reforming unit will be opened, and the styrene test run is expected to be put on the agenda. The supply of styrene in the plant is good, and the arrival of goods in East China port is expected to rise. Therefore, the business analyst thinks that styrene may still touch the cost line below 7200 yuan / ton in December. The market should pay more attention to the guidance of the trend of external market and bulk futures to the market.