At the beginning of the week (2.17), according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China was slightly lower than that at the end of last week, most of which were lower than that at the end of last week. Some enterprises in the northern region were slightly lower, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, today’s drop of liquid ammonia was 0.64%, which was 5% lower than that at the beginning of last week. However, compared with the year before, the drop of liquid ammonia price was obvious, generally 500%- 600 yuan / ton, down more than 8.5%, mainly because on the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, the start-up of enterprises was generally delayed after the year, although the start-up rate of liquid ammonia manufacturers remained stable, but the dealers’ return rate was not high, the market entered a window period, and generally fell into a state of closure. On the other hand, at present, transportation is still the primary problem that plagues the industry, liquid ammonia transportation also entered a bottleneck period, long-distance high-speed transportation Due to the limited transportation and the superposition of multiple factors, the liquid ammonia still hasn’t got rid of the weak situation. The quotation of enterprises in Shandong and Hebei, the main production area, has been continuously lower. On February 17, some manufacturers still made a downward move, but the range has been narrowed. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the liquid ammonia in North China also remained stable. The lack of demand led to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia, which was converted to urea to control the ammonia volume. The inventory pressure of the enterprise was slightly relieved, but at present, there are many downstream stoppages, and the transportation was blocked. Last week, the price fell by about 100 yuan, which was temporarily stable at the beginning of the week. The main quotation in North China was 2500-2600 yuan / ton up and down.

In Hebei Province, at the beginning of the week, the quotation of some liquid ammonia manufacturers was slightly lower, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the production and transportation problems were relatively serious, and the production and sales were not prosperous. On the other hand, the pressure of environmental protection was still not negligible, which led to limited production and shutdown of enterprises. Especially, the downstream dealers were generally closed, the inventory of enterprises could not be cleared in time, there were many inventories, and the price was mainly down The main quotation is 2530-2600 yuan / ton.

Last week, the market in Central China mainly declined, and it gradually stabilized at the beginning of this week. The shipment pressure in Hubei is significantly higher than that before the festival. Transportation is the most difficult area. Part of Henan Province is affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price yield is more. At present, the liquid ammonia market is shrouded in a negative atmosphere and weak operation. The mainstream quotation in Henan is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. In addition, the northwest region is not smooth, and the enterprise quotation has dropped to 2400 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market remains weak adjustment, and the manufacturer’s operating rate increases, but the poor sales lead to the increase of inventory, and the enterprise’s quotation mainly goes down. Most enterprises have room for profit. It is expected that many of the later units will be converted to urea production, and the liquid ammonia inventory pressure may be eased to a certain extent. In addition, with the advent of the spring farming season, the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will be expanded Zhang, it is expected that the short-term market will be stable and the medium-term price will rebound.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 45355 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 45646.67 yuan / ton, up 0.64%, down 4.84% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Copper and copper prices: the Shanghai copper index rebounded after falling to 45390 yuan at the beginning of this week. It closed at 45530 yuan at the end of the week, up 0.66%. This week, LME copper’s three-month contract focus gradually moved up, with the price rising to $5814.5 from a low of $5638, and closing at $5791 on Friday, up 2.41%.

At the beginning of this week, the market resumed work one after another, but the downstream construction was limited. Now most enterprises in the country are preparing to resume production, but the actual production is expected to be 17 days later. East China and South China, where copper processing and terminal consumption are relatively concentrated, are also the places where the epidemic is more serious. Enterprises still face the dilemma of personnel flow and logistics not yet recovered when they return to work. The orders of processing enterprises are few and the delivery time is delayed, and the complete return to work is at least to the end of February. At present, the pressure superimposed logistics of the smelter is blocked, or the smelter is forced to reduce production or overhaul in advance.

3、 Future prospects

According to the above situation, the copper analyst of non ferrous branch of business cooperation thinks that: the short-term increase of domestic inventory is obvious, the downstream construction is not good, and the risk of sulfuric acid expansion is increased (sulfuric acid must be produced in the smelting process, and the storage capacity of sulfuric acid is a fixed value), which forces the smelter to reduce production or overhaul before the end of February. At the current rework peak, the impact of the uncertainty of the epidemic on the metal market demand is still ongoing. It is expected that copper The price maintained a narrow range of volatility.

1、 Price trend

The market for methyl ether fell on Tuesday. On February 3, the average market price of DME was 3340 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the average market price was 3116.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 6.69% in the week. The price was 9.4% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market price of methyl ether (Henan) fell on Tuesday, and the market transaction atmosphere was flat. As of February 7, the equipment of Yutai in Hebei, Henan lankaohuitong, Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan, Shandong Yuhuang dimethyl ether, Shanxi Lanhua science and technology venture Co., Ltd. had been stopped for maintenance, and no quotation was made temporarily; the equipment of dimethyl ether in Xinyuan of Yima in Henan had failed, and no quotation was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton, and that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market of dimethyl ether fell significantly. At present, the operating rate of the market of dimethyl ether is at a low level. Affected by the traffic during the Spring Festival, the inventory digestion of most enterprises is slow. Under the inventory pressure of some manufacturers, the inventory is mainly digested by parking, and Hebei xinlianxin operates at a low load. The gas market is also dominated by the decline, the end-users delay the start-up, the market demand is significantly reduced, and the market mentality is negative. At present, the price of DME is relatively low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top two commodities are power coal (1.47%) and petroleum coke (1.38%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are dimethyl ether (- 6.69%), Brent crude oil (- 2.98%) and liquefied gas (- 2.23%). This week’s average was – 0.82%.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the market operating rate continued to run at a low level. Although the decrease in market supply has eased, the demand is relatively weak. At present, most of the manufacturers still have inventory pressure, but there is little room for decline. It is expected that the market will stabilize next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 10, the average market price of butanone was around 8866.87 yuan / ton based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, which was slightly increased by 33 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival (January 21), and the market was stable as a whole.

2、 Market analysis

Products: after the Spring Festival, affected by the logistics and transportation and the downstream resumption of work delay. The domestic butanone market is light, the overall recovery of the domestic butanone market is limited, the market transportation is blocked, the market circulation speed is slow, most of the current spot goods are pre-determined sources of goods before the year, the supply side is limited, the price fluctuation is limited, and the trade logistics and demand links are shrinking. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic butanone market is flat. On July 7, the butanone market in South China was cold and weak. The price of butanone is 8900-9000 yuan / ton. The butanone market in East China has less transactions. The market reference price is 8650-8750 yuan / ton. The delivery price of Shandong Dongming pear chemical butanone is 8700 yuan / ton. East China logistics is basically in Stagnant state, most of the current spot goods are pre-determined sources of goods years ago, and the price fluctuation is limited. Ningbo Jinfa butanone factory price reference 875 – yuan / ton; Northwest Lanzhou Petrochemical butanone factory price reference 8500 yuan / ton; North China butanone market reference price in 8600 – 8700 yuan / ton. There is no pressure on the spot stock of the port, and the market is waiting.

Industrial chain: last week, the domestic liquefied gas market was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was flat. As of February 7, the price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3620 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3450 yuan / ton, from Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group is 4200 yuan / ton, The price of LPG of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3500 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3400 yuan / ton. Last week, the liquefied gas market (Shandong) continued to decline. After the holiday, the international crude oil fell mainly, which created a negative effect on the market. At present, the terminal market is delayed to start, and the demand is significantly reduced. The downstream market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. The manufacturer’s shipment has been blocked continuously, and the inventory pressure is relatively obvious. Although there is a demand for storage and replenishment after the festival, the market has not improved at present, and the price has been continuously weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top two commodities are power coal (1.47%) and petroleum coke (1.38%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are dimethyl ether (- 6.69%), Brent crude oil (- 2.98%) and liquefied gas (- 2.23%). This week’s average was – 0.82%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, with the improvement of the downstream construction situation and the gradual recovery of the market atmosphere, it is expected that the market turnover will pick up this week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.20% from 1673.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1676.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 12.10% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 77.98 on January 17.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1710 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the current domestic market trading atmosphere is general, downstream risk awareness is strong, dare not hoard a large number of goods. The orders of enterprises increased slowly during the Spring Festival, agricultural goods were properly prepared, and the demand in the downstream was on demand. Some board factories began to have holidays, and the demand in the downstream slowed down. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate slightly. Next, pay attention to the downstream holiday and gas recovery.

Industry chain: the upstream products as a whole seem to have increased slightly: the price of natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising 0.76% from 3066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3090.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 41.51% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 1.11% from 3006.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3040.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.98% compared with the same period last year, overall It seems that urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 5933.33 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of the downstream rubber plate plant has a negative impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong Province mainly fluctuated slightly. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers are affected by environmental protection factors, with low start-up level; while the demand is still weak, coupled with the low start-up level of rubber plate manufacturers, the industrial demand has also declined. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride Market Price held steady this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 8900 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 8933 yuan / ton, 0.37% higher than last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8800 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid this week is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The demand for domestic hydrofluoric acid market is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. However, in the near future, the price of fluorite remains high, and the domestic price trend is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the southern China had a stable price trend The mainstream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride was basically stable, and the price of aluminum fluoride in Zerun energy and chemical industry in Zhengzhou was increased by 100 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business and chemical branch, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the near years is mainly stable, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is basically stable in the near future. The price change trend of downstream aluminum fluoride market is not big, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride Market will continue to maintain stability in a short period of time.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price fell first and then rose this week, showing a downward trend as a whole. As of January 17, the market average price was 4883 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the week, down 23.65% year on year. At the beginning of the week, crude oil fell for several consecutive days, and the cost support weakened. At the same time, PTA faced the restart of multiple units, as well as the centralized maintenance of downstream polyester. Under the pressure of supply and demand, PTA price continued to decline. At the end of the week, it was affected by macro sentiment, and crude oil support rose slightly.

Settlement price of production enterprise in December (yuan / ton) listing price in January (yuan / ton)

Ningbo Yisheng 4925 5000

Yangzi Petrochemical 5080 5200

Ningbo Taihua 5080 5200

Yizheng Chemical fiber 5080 5200

Yadong petrochemical 5080 5200

Hanbang petrochemical 5080 5200

Sinopec Shanghai 5080 5200

Honggang petrochemical 5080 5100

Tianjin Petrochemical 5080 5200

Luoyang Petrochemical 5080 5200

Yisheng Dalian 4925 5000

Hengli Dalian 5080 4900

Yisheng Hainan 4925 5000

Zhuhai BP 5080 5100

In terms of devices, Zhuhai BP’s 1.1 million ton PTA device and Dushan energy’s 1.1 million ton PTA device have been restarted successively, and the current PTA operation rate is around 89%. Next week, yishanhua’s 2.25 million ton plant is planned to restart. In addition, Sinopec’s 1.2 million ton plant load is 70%, and Hengli phase IV 2.5 million ton plant, of which 1.25 million ton line is put into operation and the load is increasing.

Change of production capacity (10000 tons / year)

Ningbo Yisheng 65 will stop on January 1, 2020 and restart to be determined

220 planned maintenance from the end of January to the middle of February

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 stopped on Dec. 20, to be restarted

Yisheng Dalian 225 was put off load and stopped for maintenance on December 29, and was delayed to restart near the weekend

Maintenance of Yisheng Hainan 200 from the end of February to the middle of March

Zhuhai BP 110 has been in maintenance, and it is planned to be maintained for 2 weeks

Chuanneng chemical’s 100 fault stopped on December 29, temporarily restarted near the middle of February

Fuzhou chemical industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has a failure load of 50%, which is planned to be increased today

Jialong Petrochemical 60 shut down for maintenance on August 2, and restart to be determined

Zhuhai BP 110 was restarted on January 15, and the device has been shut down since the beginning of January

Dushan energy 110 was restarted on January 16, and the device was eliminated at the beginning of the week

The downstream polyester plant has the demand for goods preparation before the festival, PTA spot transaction activity has increased. The starting load of polyester plant maintenance is increased by about 75%. Next week, it is estimated that 2 million tons / year polyester plant maintenance is expected, and the starting load will fall below 72%. The market price of polyester filament is stable, including 7000.00-7450.00 yuan / ton for polyester poy150d / 48F, 8600.00-9050.00 yuan / ton for polyester dty150d / 48F, 7600.00-7950.00 yuan / ton for polyester fdy150d / 96F. Near the Spring Festival, textile enterprises enter into the mode of shutdown and vacation, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms declines to about 14%.

Xia Ting, an analyst with the business club, believes that the stock up before the festival will gradually come to an end, the downstream polyester factory will also be further overhauled, the terminal weaving and polyester start-up will fall, the demand will fall again, and PTA accumulation pressure will intensify. However, at present, crude oil is in the period of production reduction, as well as the macro positive, which forms a certain support for PTA. Overall, PTA prices are expected to be weak before the festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic liquefied gas has declined broadly. As of January 14, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market is 4533.33 yuan / ton. Prices rose 13.81% month on month and 6.67% year on year.

2、 Influencing factors

Products: on the 14th, the liquefied gas (Shandong) market went down broadly, with a general trading atmosphere. The rise and fall in Shandong were different, mainly downward. At present, the ex factory price is 4450-4600 yuan / ton. In the morning, international crude oil continued to decline and closed, with a negative market mentality. Sinopec and its major producers mainly fell, while other manufacturers mainly fell. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is still a demand for replenishment in the downstream. As the price continues to fall, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the downstream has increased, and the manufacturer’s shipment has slightly improved.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the trend of international crude oil and peripheral markets are both in a weak position, which affects the market mentality. However, with the continuous decline of prices, the demand for inventory and replenishment in the downstream before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market has improved. It is expected that there will still be a downward trend or a slowdown in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market was up by a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of January 10, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9796 yuan / ton, with a 0.16% increase on a month on month basis and a 2.77% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market has increased in a narrow range this week. Affected by the rain and snow weather, the slow transportation and the control of the main factory lead to less spot supply in the field, the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market continues, and the offer is higher. However, the middle and lower reaches are opposed to the hanging settlement and have a strong wait-and-see mood. Most of the expired contracts have not been signed, and they have turned to spot market inquiry and purchase, waiting for more clear information guidance of the new model. Up to now, except for the catalyst replacement from January 2 to 7 of Shaanxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., and the take-off and landing of Dongyuan from January 6 to 80%, other main factories have not yet implemented the load reduction. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream follow-up to reduce the negative production: PBT prosperity plans to maintain, Kanghui plans to reduce to one line operation, the demand gradually weakens, and the demand side support is insufficient. At present, the promotion of linked settlement is slow, the supply and demand sides continue to play games, and the negotiation focus is high.

In terms of devices, this week, Tianye phase I 30000 ton device is in normal operation, and two 60000 ton devices are planned to restart in February; Chongqing Jianfeng will stop for maintenance on or about December 15, which is expected to be about one month; Shaanxi chemical will stop for catalyst replacement on January 2, which will be restarted on January 8; Dongyuan’s load will be reduced to 80% from January 6; Tunhe phase II will be successfully commissioned on December 30, 2019, and the products are expected to enter the market in February. The overall market operating rate this week is around 62.8%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and methanol are mainly on the upward trend this week. Guanzhong is up 70-100 yuan / ton to 1850-1960 yuan / ton. The weekly volume is up and the sales of local enterprises are smooth. Inner Mongolia is up 50-60 yuan / ton to 1780-1820 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of snowfall weather, the surrounding areas are closed at a high speed and the methanol export cycle is extended. Xinjiang and other places are also up. At present, the enthusiasm of the downstream stock up before the festival has increased, and most enterprises do not have high inventory. Most enterprises take measures to raise the price, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong trend next week.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole rose. The ex factory price increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the price to the factory increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Market trading atmosphere is active, road transportation is limited, and market wait-and-see is increased. In recent years, heavy snow has fallen in many places in the north, and the road transportation is not smooth, which causes the vehicle turnover to be blocked. The inventory of production enterprises gradually accumulates, but the downstream arrival volume is insufficient, and PVC production enterprises in central and North China are limited to start. However, the road icing in Shaanxi is more serious, and the transportation of Lancan is blocked, so some carbide production enterprises reduce production load due to the problem of raw material supply. After new year’s day, new high-speed charging standards led to an increase in freight rates. It is expected that the road transportation will gradually recover with the weather improving in the near future, but the number of downstream trucks to be unloaded is low in the near future, so the downstream actively purchases. It is expected that the arrival of domestic calcium carbide next week will be insufficient regionally. In order to attract the supply, there will be a rise.

3、 Future forecast

Restricted by the double factors of transportation and main factory control, the spot supply in the field is less, and the manufacturers stick to the high price offer. After Shaanxi chemical industry’s short-term shutdown and replacement catalysis, the negative production of Dongyuan decreased, the overall operating rate decreased, and the supply end inventory was partially favorable. However, the downstream is in conflict with the suspension settlement, and the promotion is slow. Most of the expired contracts have not been signed, but have been transferred to the market for spot inquiry and purchase, waiting for more clear information and guidance of the new model. With the arrival of Spring Festival, limited transportation and low inventory, BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will be stronger next week, focusing on the device dynamics and contract signing.

1、 Market analysis

The domestic n-butanol market began to recover rapidly on the 6th after the decline at the beginning of the month, with a ten day increase of 1.71% and a ten day amplitude of 2.89%. At present, on January 13, the price of domestic n-butanol market is stable and firm, with an average reference price of 5933 yuan / ton (including tax). The upstream propylene price has risen to the highest level. The factory cost pressure is large, the cost support is strong, the overall market offer is high, and the downstream customers’ purchase is up The attitude of not buying is obvious, the users are active in purchasing, the factory orders are relatively smooth, and the transaction of n-butanol market is stable. At present, the market of n-butanol in South China is stable, and the quoted price is 6250-6350 yuan / ton; the market of n-butanol in North China is stable, and the quoted price is around 6000 yuan / ton; the quoted price of n-butanol in Shandong lihuayi is 5900 yuan / ton, and Luxi Chemical today The factory price of daily collective pricing is 5900 yuan / ton, with medium load and low inventory. The factory quotation of n-butanol of Qilu Petrochemical Company is about 5900 yuan / ton.

2、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of butanol in the business agency: in the first ten days of January, the domestic propylene market continued to rise, which effectively consolidated the butanol market. However, the stock in the early stage of the market was basically completed, and the subsequent market volume is expected to decrease. Therefore, the domestic butanol market mainly operated smoothly before and after the Spring Festival, with limited upside space. At the same time, a small number of manufacturers adjusted prices in order to stimulate the shipment after the year The possibility of lattice.