1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week, as of Friday, 6.37% lower than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession, and adding to the OPEC + production increase expectation. Affected by this, the price of international crude oil fell sharply this week, as well as the price of toluene in the South Korean market, the main source of toluene import. Although domestic enterprises gradually enter the resumption period and the market demand gradually improves, the price of domestic toluene still follows the decline. At present, China The main price in the East is about 4500 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price maintained a wide and volatile trend after plummeting at the beginning of this week. As of Friday, Brent futures fell 32.31%, Brent futures fell 28.09%, WTI futures fell 22.96% and Dubai futures fell 32.74%.

Downstream, TDI: at present, the price of toluene TDI is about US $557 / T FOB ARA, and the price of domestic goods delivered with tickets is 10600 yuan / T for reference. It is expected that the TDI market will stabilize next week. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 593 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 611 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will stabilize and rebound next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, concern about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will rebound next week, adding that domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will stabilize and rebound next week, but it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range in the environment of high inventory of toluene industry and smooth industrial chain recovery.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of dry process aluminum fluoride in China remained stable this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 9166 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 9166 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 11500 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is more than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is normal. At present, some units have not been started, and the market of hydrofluoric acid in the site is relatively smooth in the near future. Due to the general downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable 。 At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11500 yuan / ton. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride of most manufacturers remained stable, and some manufacturers will not start the aluminum fluoride device until April.

3、 Future forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business and chemical branch, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable from rising, and the market price of downstream aluminum fluoride is stable as a whole. It is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will continue to be stable next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on March 13, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 22500 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the week (9 days), 22500 yuan / ton. This week’s market remained stable. On March 12, the R134a commodity index was 82.32, flat with yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), up 1.50% from the lowest point of 81.10 on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is stable this week. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end maintains stable operation, the raw material end of refrigerant R134a supports strongly, and the terminal air conditioning industry returns to work one after another, but it has mainly been cleaned up, the demand for refrigerant is weak, the supply of refrigerant R134a market is still tight, and the market is stable. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of March 13, the market price of refrigerant R134a is concentrated at 22000 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on March 13, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10500-11500 yuan / ton. The factory price of some manufacturers in the site was temporarily stable. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the site was slightly tight, and the market price in the site remained high. Terminal, air conditioning market is weak in purchase and sale, automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, which is good for refrigerant R134a price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 12, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top two commodities are liquid ammonia (6.10%) and phenylethylene (0.53%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are crude benzene (- 9.00%), aniline (- 4.56%) and dichloromethane (- 4.00%). The average price of this day was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the raw material end of refrigerant R134a is strongly supported, which is dragged down by the demand end. It is expected that refrigerant R134a will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In recent years, fertilizer products have been rising, and monoammonium phosphate is no exception. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market price of powdered monoammonium on February 1 was 1890 yuan / ton, and the market price of powdered monoammonium on February 29 was 1993 yuan / ton, up 5.47% in February. Up to now, the commodity index of monoammonium phosphate on March 5 is 68.40, which is flat with yesterday, 32.17% lower than the highest point of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 10.16% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the operating rate of enterprises began to slightly increase, and some enterprises in Hubei stopped. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% ammonium powder is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in February, the domestic sulfur market was relatively strong, and the domestic price was up, but the downstream construction was low, the port inventory was still high, consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the field, and the main thing was to watch carefully. The atmosphere of negotiation in domestic sulfur market is a little flat. The enthusiasm of purchasing in downstream market is weakened and mainly on demand. The buyer and the seller intend to keep the price difference, and the industry is mostly stuck on the sidelines. At present, the domestic quotation of solid sulfur is 430-660 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur is 390-550 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphorus ore market starts slowly, most of the enterprises in the market have not resumed production, and the overall start-up remains at a low level. There are not many new transactions in the market, and the recovery of transactions is slow, mainly to digest inventory.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2020, there are 28 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluoric acid (8.40%) and fluorite (8.05%). There are 48 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 27 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 22.76%), propane (- 21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 18.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.53%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, the price of monoammonium phosphate is currently high, and the transportation situation is starting to improve. The price of raw sulfur rose, and the recovery rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased, which pushed the price of monoammonium phosphate up. The market is facing well, and the price of monoammonium phosphate is expected to rise steadily in the later period.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the caustic soda is mainly in stable operation this week. The average market price in Shandong from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is 602.5 yuan / ton, with stable price. The caustic soda commodity index on February 27 was 86.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.09% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.32% from 73.27, the lowest point on March 29, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is stable this week. The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda market in Shandong Province is stable, with a quotation of about 580-650 yuan / ton. The caustic soda enterprises have devices to stop, the market supply is reduced, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the trend of narrow consolidation will run in the short term. The caustic soda market in Jiangsu Province is stable for the time being, with the main stream of 32% of the caustic soda market of 630-740 yuan / ton. The market is relatively stable with low load operation and weak trading. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is stable, the local mainstream price of 32% caustic soda is 1400-1500 yuan / ton (converted into 100 yuan), the downstream transaction is general, the market atmosphere is light, and the enterprise is mainly flexible in shipment.

Industrial chain: flake alkali market quotation: the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is weak. 99% of flake alkali’s main factory price is about 2300-2600 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand is low, the market transaction is general, and it is expected that more weak operation will prevail in the later stage. In Tianjin area, flake caustic soda operates generally, with 99% of the main flake caustic soda ex factory price of about 2600-2900 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand is general, the market transaction is general, and it is expected that more weak flake caustic soda operations will prevail in the later stage.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 7th week of 2020 (2.17-2.21), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (1.76%), caustic soda (0.42%); the main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.39%), PVC (- 0.56%). This week’s average was 0.05%.

According to analysts of business cooperatives, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market continues to be weak, chlor alkali enterprises’ shipments are flat, and the transportation is better than before, but at present, they are mostly in a wait-and-see attitude, while the downstream demand is average. Lack of demand support, domestic caustic soda market is expected to maintain consolidation market operation before the festival.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic propane market continued to decline by a large margin. On February 24, the average price of propane market was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3717.5 yuan / ton, down 8.49% in the week, down 7.18% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a large margin, and the market transaction atmosphere turned weak. As of February 28, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3770 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3650 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3800 yuan / ton.

This week, propane showed a continuous downward trend. Although the early downstream demand has increased, coupled with high-speed free, there are many replenishment operations in this favorable situation. However, affected by the global epidemic warming, crude oil continued to decline sharply this week, with a negative market mentality and a more cautious and wait-and-see mentality in the downstream. This week, the price of civil gas is also mainly downward. In March, CP price is expected to fall, and terminal consumption has not been fully recovered. Under multiple negative conditions, the market transaction atmosphere turns weak, the manufacturer’s late shipment is not smooth, the inventory gradually rises, and the price continues to fall.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (18.44%), liquid ammonia (7.51%) and ammonium chloride (2.44%). There are 29 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 2.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are propane (- 8.49%), epichlorohydrin (- 7.81%) and R134a (- 5.00%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the terminal market has not been fully recovered, and the market demand is limited. In addition, the international crude oil has fallen sharply. In March, the CP price is expected to fall. Multiple negative factors affect the market mentality. The atmosphere for manufacturers to ship goods has been weakened, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected that the market trend will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2175.00 yuan / ton, down 10.12% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market is temporarily stable, February 28 potassium chloride commodity index was 69.05.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in February, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 24, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5760 yuan / ton, which was 4.35% higher than that of the same period last month and 9.37% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to decline.

2、 Market analysis

Product: weak operation of domestic ethanol market. After the price in Henan has been lowered for many times, the downstream demand is still weak, the inventory of enterprises has increased, some enterprises have been shut down, and the shipping price of enterprises has been continuously reduced; the price in East China has been lowered again, and the price continues to weaken under the support of shipping mentality; the stock of large factories in Northeast China is not high at present, and the order delivery price remains stable; the supply of goods in South China has increased significantly, which is bad for South China Regional market prices continued to be weak.

Industry chain: corn: corn price fluctuates in a narrow range. The state has issued various policies to guarantee the supply of corn in the market. The market volume has increased steadily. The shortage of local corn supply has been alleviated, and the overall price rise has slowed down. At present, the surplus grain inventory at the grass-roots level is still on the high side, and the pressure of centralized grain sales still exists. However, due to the long period of resumption of pig production and the resurgence of avian influenza, the market is generally pessimistic about the demand expectation. It is expected that in late February and March, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the transportation link will gradually resume smooth, the supply of corn will gradually recover in the later period, and the space for corn price to continue to rise will be gradually limited, and it is expected that the price will continue to be strong and bullish in the short term.

Ethyl acetate: domestic ethyl acetate market fell. After the support of ethanol surge in the early stage, the quotation price of ethyl acetate continued to be high, followed by the increase of spot supply in the market, and the market competition intensified on the basis of the continued weak demand in the downstream. In addition, the recent consecutive decline of raw material acetic acid has given the cost side of ethyl acetate a benefit, and the market has been passively declining under the negative situation in all aspects.

3、 Future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect that some areas of the short-term ethanol market are likely to decline. Although the inventory of large factories in Northeast China is not high, but the current price has increased compared with that of before. With the price of Henan continues to weaken, some traders have not high desire to take goods from Northeast China, which will cause a decrease in the volume of goods shipped from Northeast China, and enterprises may reduce their quotations to stimulate the shipment. In East China, the profits of production enterprises are still good, but with the inflow of low-cost goods, there is no rule out that there is a holding It is possible to continue the downward trend; at present, there is still a small profit in the price of Henan market, and it is unlikely that enterprises will continue to reduce prices substantially under the support of costs. It is expected that the short-term Henan market will be slightly weaker; due to the obvious increase in the supply of goods in South China, and the current stable situation of downstream demand, it is expected that the short-term South China market will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride Market Price held steady this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 8933 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9166 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. In recent years, the on-site manufacturers are not in good condition. Affected by the epidemic situation, some manufacturers have not resumed production temporarily. In addition, the transportation aspect is slow to change. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises not shut down during the Spring Festival in the lower reaches is exhausted, and the purchase demand is increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is higher, and the price of fluorite is still high in the near future The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the South was 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market was 10500-11000 yuan / ton. Most of the aluminum fluoride manufacturers have not yet started work this week, and the price of aluminum fluoride has remained stable, but the price of aluminum fluoride in Zerun energy and chemical industry in Zhengzhou has been increased by 700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society believe that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly as the resumption of work of enterprises around the country improves. The downstream market price of aluminum fluoride is stable as a whole, and it is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will rise steadily next week.

1、 Price trend

In the past week, the domestic propane market continued to rise. On February 10, the average price of the propane market was 3700 yuan / ton, and on February 17, the average price was 3857.5 yuan / ton, up 4.26% in seven days. The price was 4.64% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane market has been rising continuously in the past week, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively mild. As of February 17, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group has no propane in stock, so it will not offer any price temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3680 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The ex factory price of propane of Industrial Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton.

Propane has shown an upward trend in the past week, and the market trading atmosphere is moderate. The rise of international crude oil has brought a certain boost to the market, and the rebound of civil gas has brought good results. The demand for inventory and replenishment in the lower reaches, together with the gradual recovery of transportation in various regions, has improved the overall market transaction atmosphere. The manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth, and the inventory pressure is gradually relieved. At present, it is controllable and continuously upward.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

With the gradual recovery of transportation and the replenishment of the downstream market, the manufacturer’s inventory has been eased. At present, the inventory is controllable, coupled with the reduction of domestic supply, and the mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the market trend will be good in the short term, with the possibility of continuing upward.