1、 Price trend

This week, PVC first fell and then rose. The weekend spot market was driven by the rise of futures and the price rose. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the domestic mainstream average price of PVC on July 3 was 6257.5 yuan / ton, up 0.12% compared with the previous day, and decreased by 7.64% compared with the same period last year. The maximum amplitude in the period is 17.09%

2、 Market analysis

On July 3, PVC market stopped falling and turned to rise. Due to the sharp rise of futures and the strength of the market, PVC spot market followed closely. This week, the PVC market is weak, futures shocks, the spot market is also in a state of callback. At this stage, it is the traditional off-season, some downstream factories are operating with reduced load, limited receiving capacity, and just in demand procurement is given priority to, and the consignors are offering profits to ship goods. The PVC market is stagnant. However, on July 2, the sharp rise of futures broke the deadlock, the mainstream prices in different regions rose to varying degrees, the focus shifted upward, and the enterprises’ shipment was fair. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the enthusiasm of market participants increased. At present, the social inventory continues to be de stocked, some enterprises are still in the state of maintenance, the supply side still has some favorable support, the enterprise shipment is normal, the manufacturer’s confidence in supporting prices has been enhanced, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. On the whole, the fundamentals have not changed much, and the relationship between supply and demand is relatively stable.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 3, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6100-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type tourmaline in Changzhou is around 6200-6260 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6300-6380 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is around 6400-6450 yuan / ton, which can be negotiated.

In terms of futures, PVC 2009 contracts on the 2nd day were lower and higher, closing at 6290 yuan / T, + 125 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume 214774 hands, + 120148 hands; 190668 positions, + 14887 hands, basis difference of – 50 yuan, – 130 yuan; 9-1 price difference of 180 yuan, + 15 yuan. The opening price of V2009 contract on March 3 was 6275, the highest price was 6380, the lowest price was 6260, and the closing price was 6335, + 115, up 1.85%.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises this week was more than 70%. Most of the maintenance enterprises have recovered and their output has increased to a certain extent. After July, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased. Recently, some enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Xinjiang Zhongtai, Zhonggu mining, Zhongyan Jilantai, Inner Mongolia Yili, etc., have maintenance plans. Some enterprises’ maintenance plans have been postponed to August. Social inventory continues to decline, but the speed slows down From the point of view, the supply tends to rise in a stable way, but it is gradually weakening.

In terms of demand, at present, the terminal operating rate is at a slightly higher level in the year, and the manufacturing market is still recovering. At present, it is in the off-season, and there is more precipitation in the plum rain season. The real estate industry is affected to a certain extent. However, the start-up of enterprises such as pipes and profiles is still at a high level, and other enterprises are at a medium and low level, and exports continue to be sluggish. On the whole, the performance of the demand side is fair, but it is difficult to drive the market to rise sharply in the off-season.

On the 2nd, international oil prices rose, with wti08 contract up $0.83/barrel at 40.65 and Brent 09 contract by 1.11/barrel at 43.14. Recently, the external price of ethylene showed an upward trend. On the 2nd, the European ethylene market rose, with FD northwest Europe offering 738-747 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe offering 724-732 US dollars / ton, up 33 US dollars / ton. Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 845-855 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 785-795 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 218-236 U.S. dollars / ton; generally speaking, the recent European and American ethylene market is mainly up, the overall ethylene market demand is good, the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the PVC analysts of the business agency, at present, the overall inventory of PVC continues to be removed, the maintenance enterprises are reduced, and there are still some advantages. The demand side is in the traditional off-season, while the support is still in place, and the trading atmosphere is getting better. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will be more volatile, with the possibility of continued rise, but the space is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices rose sharply in June. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 1 was 9916 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 10400 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.87%.

On June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 52.31, down 0.33 points from yesterday, 47.69% from 100.00 points (2017-03-02), and 32.77% higher than the lowest 39.40 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to March 1, 2017 to now)

2、 Market analysis

As of June 30, baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was listed at 11000 yuan / ton, and the settlement price was 10750 yuan / ton. The 450000 tons / year plant was normally started and accepted. Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year unit normal start-up, acceptance delivery. Fujian Shenyuan caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10900 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / T, and the factory has a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed.

The raw material pure benzene market rose to fall in June. In the first week, the price of domestic pure benzene rose slightly. Crude oil and external disk have strong support for pure benzene. In the second week, Sinopec adjusted the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, narrowing the price difference between internal and external markets, and strengthening the support at the bottom of the market. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a downward trend. The port inventory is high, the speed of delivery is slow, and the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Shandong refining enterprises inventory increase, driving prices continue to fall.

In June, the trend of downstream PA6 changed from strong to weak. In the first half of the month, the domestic market of PA6 was relatively strong, and the spot price of each brand increased to a certain extent. The upstream caprolactam inventory is low and the supply is still tight, which strongly supports the cost side of PA6. The demand of downstream slicing plant is general, and the purchase strategy of just need is mainly. The performance of PA6 in the second half of the month was average, and the business offer was deadlocked, and the shipment situation declined. The domestic operating rate is fair. Although the increase of overseas plasticizer consumption demand is good for domestic enterprises to remove inventory, the recent follow-up of orders from downstream factories is slow, and the reaction to high price goods is general, and the stock preparation is mainly on bargain hunting.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the raw material prices continue to rise in early June, caprolactam supply is tight. The downstream demand for caprolactam increased. In the later stage, raw materials and terminal markets fell together, the cost support weakened, and the downstream demand was weak, which led to the poor market of caprolactam. It is expected that caprolactam market will consolidate in the future, and the market may go down again.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the overall trend of domestic PE spot market showed a steady upward trend in the second half of June (June 15-29), among which LDPE rose the most, with the increase of 3.58% in the second half of June. At present, although it is in the traditional off-season of demand, due to the large number of maintenance of petrochemical units, the market supply is greatly reduced, which brings some support to some areas.

Average price range of regional varieties and specifications on June 15 to June 29

East China LLDPE 7042 6766.67 yuan / ton 6933.33 yuan / ton + 2.46%

East China LDPE 2426h 8025.00 yuan / ton 8312.50 yuan / ton + 3.58%

In East China, HDPE 5000S 7616.67 yuan / ton: 7783.33 yuan / ton + 2.19%

In late June, the prices of the three varieties in the PE spot market were mainly rising. Most petrochemical enterprises have raised their ex factory prices to boost the market mentality. From June 15 to 17, international crude oil rose for three consecutive days, which also brought benefits to the market. At present, it is in the centralized maintenance stage of petrochemical enterprises, and the market supply has decreased, so the market price is relatively firm. However, due to the traditional off-season sales, the overall demand of downstream users is less, and more replenishment is required, so the market transaction atmosphere is general. Business mentality is good, more with the market, small push up. On June 22, plastic futures rose in shock, which benefited the spot market, and PE saw the rise again. Petrochemical enterprises raised the ex factory price for several consecutive days, with the increase range of 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the petrochemical inventory has accumulated, which is difficult to consume in the short term. However, due to the high level of petrochemical plant maintenance, the impact on the market is not significant, and the price is still strong.

At present, the impact of social and public health events on the domestic market is limited. The downstream gradually returns to work and production. The operating rate is significantly higher than that in the previous period, and the market demand shows signs of warming. And currently in the maintenance peak season, the market supply is greatly reduced, and the supply is relatively tight, which brings benefits to the market. However, with the end of the maintenance season, the domestic market supply increased significantly, and the market supply and demand situation is not optimistic. It is expected that the future market will rise first and then fall.

According to the data, the natural rubber commodity index on June 29 was 29.60, down 0.71 points compared with yesterday, 70.40% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 8.50% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in the first half of 2020

From the beginning of January to June of 2020, the overall market of natural rubber showed a downward trend and then a small upward trend. The price of natural rubber at the end of March and early April was a periodic bottom. In May, the Tianjiao Jedi rebounded and fluctuated upward. In June, the natural rubber continued the upward trend of last month and first rose to the near-term highest point. Subsequently, due to insufficient demand support, the price turned downward, and then there was a certain degree of shock rebound. According to the natural rubber (bid 1) data in East China monitored by the business agency, in June, the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk market was about 10120 yuan / ton on the 1st day and 10078 yuan / ton on the 30th day, up 0.42% so far this month. Among them, the price of 10370 yuan / ton on the 5th day was the highest point in recent two months, and 9980 yuan / ton on the 29th was the lowest price of this month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 3.76%. Generally speaking, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of Baodao whole milk was 10370 yuan / ton, which was the highest in recent two months, The price of natural rubber fluctuated between 10100-10400 yuan / ton. On the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the sharp drop of nearly 300 points in Shanghai rubber, the spot price of natural rubber was adjusted, and the mainstream price of domestic whole milk broke through 10000 yuan again. On the last trading day of this month, it rose slightly and returned to more than 10000 yuan.

So far this year, NR has highlighted several aspects of its “difference”:

First, due to the globalization of the epidemic situation since 2020, it is inevitable that the demand for natural rubber at home and abroad will be greatly reduced. Crude oil will rebound after a continuous drop. As a natural rubber that is easily affected by crude oil, with the downward process of crude oil, natural rubber experienced a breakthrough of 10000 yuan in the first half of the year, and then experienced a slow rebound for three months. So far, the market is weak and weak.

Second, at the same time, crude oil fell sharply, and butadiene went down sharply. As a result, the price of alternative rubber was low, and some demand of tire manufacturers turned to the market of substitute rubber. The already poor demand of Tianjiao was replaced by a part.

Third, the demand is not good, and the operating rate of tire factories will be affected. The data shows that the current operating rate of domestic tire factories is about 60-70%, which is the highest operating data so far this year. The statistics of automobile sales data have only rebounded since May, but only on a month on month basis, which is still an inevitable decline on a year-on-year basis.

Fourth, the year 2020 is different. It is doomed that the opening of new rubber will be delayed due to weather disasters and pest disasters. China’s traditional cutting season has come, but there is no wait for the domestic production to increase significantly. However, the production of Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries will not be listed until the end of this month. There is no doubt that the inventory of natural rubber will continue to increase, especially in Qingdao free trade zone Inventory of.

Fifthly, the difference of natural rubber in 2020 is also reflected in the regional differences in domestic supply. As early as mid May, the shortage of natural rubber in Yunnan, especially in Banna, has resulted in the continuous firmness of rubber prices. According to local traders, the delay in the listing of new rubber this year and the fact that some import indexes have not been released in previous years have resulted in the shortage of local supplies At the end of last month and in the middle of this month, many articles of our press had analyzed the regional differences in the domestic natural rubber market in detail. Up to the end of June and the beginning of July, this situation still existed, and the regional transmission of goods sources also appeared.

Sixth, the existence of trade friction. On June 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the preliminary findings of the fourth review on anti-dumping of passenger car and light truck tires against China. Two compulsory responding enterprises obtained 76.46% of the dumping duty rate for refusing to participate in the investigation, and seven enterprises received zero tax rate. On the 26th and 27th of last month, the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India issued a series of announcements to initiate anti-dumping investigations on China’s nitrile rubber and rubber additive px-13. Although trade frictions are not rare, this year’s difficult situation and the frequent occurrence of such incidents make the export situation even more severe.

To sum up, the natural rubber situation in 2020 is difficult. With regard to the future market, the analysis of the business agency believes that the recent focus is that Thailand’s new rubber has begun to be listed in large quantities, while the domestic natural rubber inventory is still high and facing a substantial increase. However, the downstream demand rebounds slowly, the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent, and the price will be subject to certain pressure. Due to the low level of rubber every day, there is little room for decline; Yunnan, especially in Banna, is in short supply, which will form a certain support for prices, especially local prices. It is expected that the demand of new infrastructure will be boosted. The serious epidemic situation in foreign countries and the local rebound of domestic situation will inevitably cause emotional worries. Long and short will affect the market comprehensively. It is expected that the volatility trend of Tianjiao will continue in the future. We should guard against the impact of a large number of new rubber listed on the price.

1、 Price trend

The market continued to decline in June. According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on June 28 was 4866.67 yuan / ton, 1.68% lower than that on June 16, 6.41% lower than 5200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1), and 5.8% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the center of gravity of phosphoric acid continued to move downward. The sharp decline of phosphoric acid in this month is mainly due to the lower raw material yellow phosphorus and bad cost. With the rapid decline of yellow phosphorus, the price of thermal process phosphoric acid has dropped significantly, and the performance is relatively mild near the end of the month, and the trend tends to be stable; in terms of demand, the follow-up is insufficient, the export is still weak, and the phosphoric acid enterprises have certain difficulties in shipping. With the increase of controllable price space, phosphoric acid enterprises continue to reduce prices for sales. In recent years, the price of wet process phosphoric acid has not been greatly reduced, the manufacturers’ inventory is not high, and the shipment is still good. Generally speaking, the downstream procurement of phosphoric acid market is relatively cautious, the actual transaction atmosphere is not high, and the business attitude of buying up and not falling, the market entrants are lack of confidence, and the cost side negative factors are still exist, so the trend of phosphoric acid is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4866.67 yuan / ton, and the price in Sichuan was 4500-5100 yuan / ton, which continued to decline; the quotation in Hubei was 4800 yuan / ton, which was weak and stable; the quotation in Tianjin was 5200 yuan / ton, which continued to decline; the price in Beijing was 4900 yuan / ton, which was weak and stable; the price in Yunnan was 4800 yuan / ton, which was weak and stable The western region quoted 4450 yuan / ton, down sharply.

The raw material phosphate ore market is currently in the off-season. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore market was 386 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price a week ago; compared with the price half a month ago (15th), the average price was reduced by 7 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.69%. Business Club phosphate ore analysts believe that at present, phosphate rock and its direct downstream market as a whole is weak, the downstream demand performance is weak, support is insufficient. It is expected that most of the phosphate rock will be operated in a weak position in the near future, and it is not ruled out that the market price in some areas will be reduced by a narrow margin.

The market price of yellow phosphorus was lowered. Yunnan Province entered the wet season in June. After the implementation of the electricity price in the wet season, the enterprise cost went down and the market price fell to a certain extent. At present, the yellow phosphorus market starts to rise slightly, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. At present, the yellow phosphorus Market in Yunnan is light, and the market quotation is about 14000-14300 yuan / ton. The market situation is not good, the price is seriously depressed, and many yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer. Guizhou yellow phosphorus market is mainly operated at a low level, and the current mainstream quotation is about 14300 yuan / ton. The downstream demand market is general, and manufacturers mainly take enough as needed. The yellow phosphorus Market in Sichuan is weak and stable. At present, the quotation in Sichuan is about 15000-14200 yuan / ton. Downstream manufacturers take whatever they want, and the spot sales are not so good.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to decrease in wet season, and the negative factors are still existing. The price of phosphoric acid is easy to fall but difficult to rise, and it is necessary to pay attention to the change of cost.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market rose in June. As of the 28th day, the price of phthalic anhydride by ortho phthalic method was 5212.5 yuan / ton, 4.51% higher than the price of 4987.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 8.55% lower than the same period last year. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose accordingly.

In June, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market went up, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride market was normal. The high price of crude oil boosted domestic petrochemical products, the price of ortho benzene was affected higher, and the price of phthalic anhydride market was affected by the support of raw materials. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is about 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site trading market is general. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China is higher, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China is 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and the observable state of phthalic anhydride in the market still exists. The market price of phthalic anhydride is rising, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising.

In June, the price of domestic phthalic acid rose sharply. By the end of the month, the price of phthalic acid was 4460 yuan / ton, 6.19% higher than the price of 4200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The increase of domestic phthalic acid price is the most favorable support for phthalic acid Market. In addition, the import phthalic acid Market in port area has warmed up, and the external price of phthalic acid has increased. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed. In addition, the phthalic acid merchants on the site are very bullish, The price of phthalic anhydride increases with the increase of o-benzene price.

In June, the market price of DOP downstream of phthalic anhydride rose. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of DOP in June rose by 5.49%. The market performance of DOP was strong. By the end of the month, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, 5.49% higher than that of DOP at the beginning of the month, 6983.33 yuan / ton higher than that of isooctanol, and the market price of DOP was higher. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, and the price of DOP market is 7300-7500 yuan / ton. The trading enthusiasm of market plasticizer is increased, and the downstream market is higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and phthalic anhydride market is higher.

Overall, crude oil prices rose. According to the monitoring of the business association, the settlement price of the main contracts in the US WTI crude oil futures market was $38.49/barrel on the 26th, and that of the main contracts in the Brent crude oil futures market was $40.93. Crude oil prices continued to rise in June, driven higher by the agreement on production reduction reached by major oil producers. At present, the contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of oversupply is still the primary problem that puzzles the oil market. However, with the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. Driven by the increase of crude oil price, the price of domestic petrochemical products will be boosted, and most of domestic petrochemical products will increase in varying degrees.

In the near future, the crude oil price is high and volatile, and the raw material o-benzene price trend is stable, but the trading price of plasticizer is general. The downward pressure of DOP market is still there, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in July will be slightly lower.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Since June, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market has been in weak and stable operation. The average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises as of June 24 was 54666.67 yuan / ton, down 1.80% compared with the beginning of the month and 4.09% compared with April 24, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies.

At the beginning of May, the orders of large lithium hydroxide plants were relatively stable, the shipments of small and medium-sized enterprises were relatively general, and the focus of market negotiations was temporarily stable. According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average price of industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 57000 yuan / ton. With the weak operation of the upstream lithium carbonate market, the cost support was weakened, and the new orders of the market were generally closed. The price of lithium hydroxide was reduced to 55666.67 yuan / ton, 6 In June, the upstream lithium carbonate market continued to bear pressure. The downstream demand was flat, and the cost and demand were double drag. At present, the average price of industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, down 5.20% compared with the beginning of the year.

In the near future, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is relatively stable. According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China as of June 23 was 39860 yuan / ton, down 0.85% compared with the beginning of the month and 3.25% compared with May 23; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China as of June 23 was 44200 yuan / ton, down 2.21% compared with May 23. At present, the market stock is relatively high, the spot transaction situation is weak, and the impact of imported lithium carbonate on the domestic market, it is expected that the market price of lithium carbonate will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the recent lithium carbonate market tends to be relatively stable, with limited cost support, and general domestic downstream demand. It is expected that in the short term, the market of industrial lithium hydroxide will be weak and stable.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 21, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was around 7833.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price of 8766.67 on June 14 a week ago, the price was reduced by 930 yuan / ton, or 10.65%. Compared with the beginning of the month (the reference average price on June 1 is 6233.33), the price increased by 1600 yuan / ton, or 25.67%. The maximum amplitude is 40.11% from June 1 to 22.

Butanone market soared 40.11% in early June

Although the overall market of butanone in May is still sluggish, most of the operators did not report much expectation on the market of butanone in June at the end of the month, but it is the sluggish situation for several months in succession, and the overstocked expectation of the operators has become the fuse of the soaring market of butanone in the first ten days of June.

In June, with the sharp rise of crude oil market and the sharp rise of acetone market, the butanone market was strongly supported. Butanone market operators are in a good mood, and the downstream market is also replenished. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the market price keeps rising. In the second week of June, the butanone market continued to rise and rise. Starting on the 9th, many factories stopped for maintenance. The factory inventory decreased and the supply was tight, which brought certain benefits to the market. It is understood that the butanone market as a whole began to increase broadly from the 10th, but most butanone factories chose to close the offer without reporting due to the market price turbulence. After the quotation was resumed on the 12th, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of butanone had risen to around 8733 yuan / ton, and the price during the closing period increased by 2000 yuan / ton, or 30.2%, which was 40.11% higher than that at the beginning of June. However, some insiders said that the sharp rise in prices did not rule out the intention of high price speculation. Under the real high price, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, with few replenishers, and the supply-demand stalemate was revealed. We heard that the actual transaction in the butanone market on the 11th and 12th had shown signs of let loose.

The butanone market fell nearly 11% this week

On Monday (15th), many butanone factories closed their offers but failed to make them available. A few of them began to reduce their prices rationally. The price reduction range is around 100-300 yuan / ton. The factory inventory is always low. At present, the inventory is mainly in the secondary market. The weakness of the terminal demand affects the delivery rhythm. The downstream procurement conflicts with the high price, and the procurement strength is limited. The butanone market fell all the way this week. The industry More careful operation. At present, as of the 21st day, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 7833 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price of 8766.67 on June 12 a week ago, the price has been reduced by 933 yuan / ton, nearly 11%. Among them, the market in South China is not smooth, the reference price of butanone factory is around 7600 yuan / ton, which falls by 1000 yuan / ton this week after the sharp rise, with a weekly drop of 11.6%; the market in East China is weak, and the reference price of butanone factory is around 7700 yuan / ton, which falls by 800 yuan / ton this week after the sharp rise, with a weekly drop of 9.41%; the market in North China is down, and the reference price of butanone factory is around 7400 yuan / ton, which falls after the sharp rise This week, it fell 600 yuan / ton, down 7.5%.

Attached are the starting conditions of some butanone plants in this week (6.15-6.19) (for reference only):

Name of enterprise, capacity, unit operating rate and operation

Lanzhou Petrochemical 60000t / a 80% normal

40 thousand tons / year of Dongming Petrochemical, 80% normal

Zibo Qixiang 150000t / a 80% normal

Hebei Zoje 30000 T / a 100% normal

Ningbo Haiyue 40000 tons / year 0 parking

Dushanzi Tianli 40000 / T 80% normal

On the upstream side, in June, the decline of liquefied natural gas came to an end for the time being, and a wave of small gains came in the first ten days. According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on June 11 was 2503.33 yuan / ton, 1.35% higher than 2470 yuan / ton on June 1, and 27.51% lower than the same period last year. This week, the LNG market rose weakly, and the overall market was relatively stable at the beginning of the week, with a slight downward trend in some regions over the weekend (19). According to the monitoring data of business association, the reference price of LNG on June 19 was 2483.33 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton or 0.54% compared with 2470 yuan / ton on June 1.

On the whole, although the butanone inventory is at a low level, but in the absence of a clear positive overall supply and demand, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the market will be dominated by narrow range consolidation in the short term, and traders will continue to reduce the ex factory price of butanone in order to stimulate shipment.

Magnesium market trend

On June 22, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas varied. At present, the mainstream quotation began to differentiate, with the overall range of 13050-13500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation was the main part.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 22nd was 13233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.13% compared with the average price of 13216.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of June (6.1); the average price of market on the 19th weekend was 13133.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76%.

Magnesium price has been fluctuating for a long time

In June, the market of magnesium ingot mainly fluctuated at the bottom of the market, with a relatively stable trend. The manufacturer’s quotation was basically stable, with slight mobilization from time to time, and the overall trend was stable.

Market participants believe that at present, the price of magnesium ingots is stable in June, and domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they are basically purchasing on demand, and they are not willing to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are less willing to reduce price and promote sales, more willing to stop production and repair, and the market supply and demand game tends to be stable.

Supply and demand are relatively stable

According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to April 2020, China’s Communist original magnesium 255800 tons, down 6.00% year on year. The output of the first four months has slightly decreased. In summer, with the influence of weather factors and the superposition of traditional maintenance practices, the manufacturer’s operating rate is expected to move down.

Note: the annual output of raw magnesium in 2019 is 969000 tons.

On the export side, the export market in the first four months was good, and the recent export was weak, but domestic consumption returned to normal. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to April 2020, the total export volume of six kinds of tax number magnesium products in China is 162500 tons, an increase of 1.63% year on year.

Among them, from January to April, 86500 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, up 1.63% year on year; 43600 tons of magnesium alloy, up 6.08% year on year; 27500 tons of magnesium powder, down 10.71% year on year; 2600 tons of magnesium waste, up 116.67% year on year; 15000 tons of magnesium products, down 6.25% year on year; and 0800 tons of magnesium processing materials, the same as the same period last year.

List of monthly exports of unwrought and rolled magnesium in 2019-2020:

 
April is the starting point for commodity prices (including non-ferrous metals) to rise to fill the price hole of the epidemic hit at the beginning of the year. The price of magnesium ingot also stopped falling and stabilized in the first ten days of April, but the upward attack was weak, and the basic magnesium price fluctuated mainly at the bottom, based on the following two factors:

1. In recent years, the price trend of magnesium ingot is good and relatively high;

 
On June 21, the magnesium commodity index was 80.08, the same as yesterday, 30.02% lower than the highest point 114.43 (2012-08-01), and 10.18% higher than the lowest point 72.68 on January 10, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-03-01 to now).

2. The export proportion of magnesium ingots is relatively large, and the external environment has a relatively large impact on the price of magnesium ingots. According to relevant statistics, in 2019, China exported 452000 tons of various magnesium products, accounting for 46.6% of the total magnesium output.

Domestic demand is not enough to drive up the market of magnesium ingots. Since mid April, the price of magnesium ingots has been running steadily.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingots is low, and the weather is gradually turning hot. It is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply side will have some good price for magnesium. When the Dragon Boat Festival comes, some manufacturers will increase their price, and they are expected to break the steady state in the near future, with a slight increase. In the later stage, they will pay attention to the change of downstream purchase rhythm.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market has been stable temporarily in the near future. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method was 5275 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 5.41% year on year.

This week, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is stable, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride market is normal. The high price of crude oil has boosted domestic petrochemical products, the price of ortho benzene has been affected, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has been shaken. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is about 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site trading market is picking up. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is higher, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China is 5200-5400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 4900-5100 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride in North China is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the observation state of the phthalic anhydride in the market still exists, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is generally stable.

This week, the good support of phthalic anhydride market price is the rising price of domestic phthalic acid, the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, the execution price of domestic phthalic Sinopec increased by 200 yuan / ton to 4460 yuan / ton, the import price of phthalic acid in port area recovered, the external quotation of phthalic acid rose, the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed. In addition, there is strong bullish sentiment among the phthalic acid merchants, the price of phthalic acid rose, and the upstream raw material phthalic acid Price rise is a good support for phthalic anhydride market price.

Another positive support is the higher price of downstream DOP market. This week, the price of plasticizer DOP rose slightly, and the market performance of DOP market was strong. Recently, the price of DOP in East China is 7233.33 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from 7133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. In addition, the price of isooctanol is rising, and the market price of DOP is higher. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, and the price of DOP market is 7300-7400 yuan / ton. The trading enthusiasm of market plasticizer has increased, and the downstream market has gone higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile.

In the near future, crude oil price is high and volatile, the price trend of raw material o-benzene is rising, and the transaction of plasticizer is positive. The downward pressure of DOP market in the future is still strong, and the sustained good support is still there. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.