This week’s spot lead price fluctuated (4.13-4.17)

1、 Price trend

 

This week, the lead market (4.13-4.17) was up in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 14000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14050 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.36%.

 

On April 19, the lead commodity index was 85.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.19% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.58% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

2、 Market trend analysis

 

Domestic market: this week’s Lund lead market is mainly volatile, closed on Monday, hit a high and fell back on Tuesday, with a minimum of $1750 / ton. As of Friday, Lund lead reported at $1698 / ton. Shanghai lead’s main 2004 contract turned into 2005 contract, which showed a trend of rising and falling down. The high level once reached 13945 yuan / ton, while the low level reached 13585 yuan / ton. As of Friday, Shanghai lead reported 13720 yuan / ton. The spot market price is 14150-14450 yuan / ton. The price of spot lead this week is basically stable with that of last week. The market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, South China, Henan Jinli, Yuguang and other brands of lead. There are few single transactions, and the transaction is still dominated by long single transactions

 

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Industry: this week, the basic metals rose under the stimulation of a lot of more information. At the beginning of this week, OPEC + oil producing countries reached a historic production reduction agreement. Subsequently, European and American countries successively introduced various plans to restart the economy, boosting market confidence. The domestic economic data released in the first quarter showed that the economy had gone out of an obvious positive trend compared with last month. The central bank implemented targeted reduction and other measures for small and medium-sized banks.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 10 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are zinc (2.63%), aluminum (1.75%) and tin (1.71%). There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are titanium concentrate (- 3.28%), neodymium (- 1.39%) and silicon (- 1.21%). This week’s average was 0.12%.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Next week, most of the basic metal market will be supported by long single transactions, and the spot market will maintain a certain degree of activity and persistence. Today, Xinhua news agency has announced that the 17th session of the 13th National People’s Congress will be held from April 26 to 29, and the market expects more policy guidance. Bulls can still make a difference, and each basic metal will be ready to make a breakthrough.

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The price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week (4.13-4.17)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2180.00 yuan / ton, down 6.24% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 69.21 on April 17.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation in late April. The market of potassium chloride is faced with three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

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BDO market atmosphere remains depressed (4.13-4.17)

1、 Price trend

 

The domestic BDO market atmosphere continued to be depressed. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of April 17, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9600 yuan / ton, with a 1.64% month on month drop in price and a 5.91% year-on-year increase.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the domestic BDO market atmosphere continued to be depressed this week. BDO’s main factories, such as Heci, Kaixiang and Dongyuan, have no plans to restart due to inventory pressure and weak market. There is no turning point in the international epidemic, and the terminal demand is not expected to be good. After the main downstream PBT plants stop at Kaixiang and weijiao, Meizhou Bay and Meiyuan are also passively stopped, and other factories operate at low load; meanwhile, the spandex inventory is high, and the demand for PTMEG is weak; other downstream PBT plants, such as PU slurry, are also at low level. In the downstream, the digestion of raw materials is slow, and the settlement of high price is in conflict. The combination of contract and spot purchase is highly stressed. Because BDO social inventory is on the high side, the actual single trading is thin, and some operators are short-sighted, and they often make profits and promotions in a reasonable space.

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In terms of devices, this week, Heci stopped for maintenance on March 27; Kaixiang stopped for maintenance, and the restart time was not determined; MEC’s load was 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device was in normal operation, The restart time of other units is to be determined; Dongyuan shut down for maintenance on March 5 and the restart time is not determined; Tunhe phase I is 50% and phase II is shut down; Ronghe shut down for maintenance; Xinye shut down for catalyst replacement on March 25; Sinopec load drops to about 50%; heimao shut down for catalyst replacement on April 10, which is expected to be 15 days.

 

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol market rose first and then fell this week, with a general turnover. Last week, the smooth delivery and investment in various regions, coupled with the favorable temporary maintenance of Kaiyue and Yumei coal chemical devices, led by the strong price mentality of upstream production enterprises. At present, the industry is bearish on the future market, Shenhua Yulin continues to overhaul, and the methanol consumption in the northwest region is reduced, so it is expected that the methanol weakness will decline next week.

 

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market was affected by the decline of PVC manufacturers, and the price dropped significantly. At present, the inventory of production enterprises in Northwest China is under pressure, and the market trading atmosphere is light. In order to promote shipment, the production enterprises reduce the ex factory price. At present, the ex factory price in Wuhai is 2250-2300 yuan / ton, and there is still a trend of further exploration. Influenced by the cost pressure, calcium carbide enterprises have also kept down the purchase price of Lancan in the near future. It is understood that the price of Lancan intermediate materials in Shaanxi is 620 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the market load is about 40%, but the effect of limiting production and insuring price is very little. The terminal demand is still in a low state, the downstream industries are forced to produce at a low negative rate, the consumption of raw materials BDO is slow, and the downstream industries are strongly resistant to the hanging settlement. At the same time, they choose the spot purchase mode, and the market price is low, just need to make up the position. Supply and demand are weak, negotiation and saw saw. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to be weak next week, specifically focusing on the main downstream construction and device dynamics.

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Propane market rose significantly (4.6-4.10)

1、 Price trend

 

This week, propane market continued to rise. The average market price of propane at the beginning of the week was 2905.00 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the week was 3107.50 yuan / ton, up 6.97% in the week, 30.83% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: the domestic propane Market Trading atmosphere this week is better than that in the earlier stage. As of April 10, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3080 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3150 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao oil refining Co., Ltd The ex factory price of propane of Industrial Co., Ltd. is 2950 yuan / ton.

 

After the Qingming Festival, the price of propane in Shandong increased significantly, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved. At the beginning of this week, the market atmosphere was driven by the continuous rise of international crude oil, and the downstream bullish mentality was obvious. In addition, there was a demand for replenishment after the festival, so the market atmosphere was more positive. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the inventory is low, and the price continuously pushes up. At present, the terminal market has returned to normal, and the market demand has increased, which has also brought certain benefits.

 

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Latest CP price: Saudi Aramco announced in April that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $230 / T, down $200 / T from last month; butane $240 / T, down $240 / T from last month.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 28 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 13 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 14.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are pure benzene (21.34%), crude benzene (20.34%) and acetone (15.79%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 11.31%), butadiene (- 10.19%) and aniline (- 5.63%). This week’s average was up or down 1.05%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

This week, with the support of international crude oil, the trading atmosphere in the market improved, the upstream inventory was running at a low level, and the terminal demand in the later period was expected to grow. There was more good news in the market, and the industry was more optimistic about the future market, and it is expected to continue to rise next week.

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The price of hydrogen peroxide keeps falling due to poor demand

On April 14, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 86.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.09% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 20.70% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency: since April, the price of hydrogen peroxide has continued to decline in a weak way, and the price has kept falling. As of April 14, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide had fallen below 800 yuan / ton, and the market average price was 796 yuan / ton, which was 6.64% lower than last week and 11.81% lower than the beginning of the month.

 

Products: after the Qingming Festival, the supply of hydrogen peroxide has been in a loose state, the demand of the terminal paper and printing industry is poor, and the export orders have been decreasing. Hydrogen peroxide is in a situation of oversupply and the price has been falling all the way. 27.5% of the mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in China has fallen below 800 yuan / ton. The mainstream price is 760-850 yuan / ton, and the price is almost reduced by 50 yuan / ton every week.

 

As of April 14, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

 

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Shandong Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 780 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Hebei Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry is 760 yuan / ton, 90 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Anhui Province: 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price of Quansheng in Anhui Province is 850 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Hunan Province: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1000 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Zhejiang Province: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1050 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Industry chain: after the rebound of terminal caprolactam, the market fell. The paper and printing industry as a whole remained weak. In addition, the export orders fell, the terminal demand was weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market was weak.

 

Outlook for the future

 

Hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: terminal demand is poor, supply is relatively loose, hydrogen peroxide Market is still under pressure.

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The market of activated carbon is still cold, and the price is weak

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11133 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11033 yuan / ton, down 0.90%.

 

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Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is stable temporarily. At present, the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton. The domestic activated carbon market is purchased on demand, the market transaction is cold, and the dealers mainly wait and see.

 

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. Downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The market for purchasing activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. Environmental protection policies boost the market for activated carbon. The market lacks good news support, and the price goes down.

 

Forecast: the downstream atmosphere of activated carbon market is cold and the market is recovering slowly. It is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

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PA6 prices fluctuated narrowly in early April (4.1-4.10)

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in China was weak in the first half of April, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. As of April 10, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 10400.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of April.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

In terms of caprolactam upstream of PA6, the crude oil and chemical market in the first ten days of this month remained volatile. A number of OPEC adjustments have affected oil prices. In terms of results, the price of pure benzene at the cost end rebounded, but the center of gravity was still low, the port inventory was accumulated, and the market was in a bad mood. Downstream products are dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release is slow. Upstream and demand are weakening at the same time, and the improvement of supply and demand is limited. It is expected that the market trend of caprolactam will be closely related to the price trend of international crude oil and pure benzene in the short term;

 

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In early April, the price of caprolactam was weak and fluctuated, and the improvement of PA6 cost support was limited. At present, the price of PA6 in China is also affected by the external energy and chemical industry, and the spot price has recovered in the near future. The downstream return to work rate is not high, mainly adopt the strategy of bargain hunting and replenishment. Slice enterprise inventory consumption is still slow, the market atmosphere is negative, business mentality is not strong. Industry chain resistance is still in the short term, PA6 market is expected to continue to narrow adjustment.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that: in early April, the domestic PA6 market was volatile, and some spot prices have recovered recently. The trend of upstream caprolactam is general, and the improvement of PA6 cost end support is limited. The resumption of downstream factories needs further improvement, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is expected that PA6 market will continue to adjust in a narrow range in the near future, so it is recommended to operate cautiously.

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Poor demand, sharp drop in ethylene market price

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 7th was 468.00 US dollars / ton, down 6.96% compared with the price of 503.00 US dollars / ton on the 6th, and the current price is 55.22% lower than that of last year.

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

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Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 7th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $375-385 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $405-415 / T. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 19th, the European ethylene market price for FD northwest Europe closed at $570-580 / T, CIF northwest Europe closed at $503-511 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As of the 19th, the price was US $167-185 / ton. Overall, in recent years, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States has been in a downward trend, constantly refreshing the lowest point, and the whole ethylene market has been in a downward trend. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

 

Industry chain: International: on April 7, New York Mercantile futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in May 2020 was $23.63 per barrel, down $2.45 or 9.4% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in June 2020 was $31.87 per barrel, down $1.18 or 3.6% compared with the previous trading day, with the overseas epidemic rising, and Saudi Arabia and Russia showed no signs of production reduction. The international crude oil market was under pressure. At the same time, domestic refineries returned to work, and the supply of refined oil increased. The market price of refined oil was under the double pressure of cost and supply. In the near future, the price of refined oil was running at a low level. Unable to support the price of ethylene, the external market of ethylene fell again, especially the price of ethylene in Asia fell sharply on the 7th, falling to an unprecedented position. After the price of downstream styrene rebounded and the ethanol market fell to the lowest level, the recent consolidation played a small role in supporting the price of ethylene, and the price of ethylene fell sharply.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to ethylene analyst of business agency chemical branch, public health events are becoming more and more serious in foreign countries, and oil demand is falling sharply, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, unable to support ethylene price, so data analyst of business agency predicts that ethylene price will keep a narrow decline in the future.

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Toluene price bottomed out this week (March 30 April 5)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3050 yuan / ton, down 11.59% month on week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession, adding that the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. Affected by this, the domestic toluene price followed the sharp decline. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, the international oil price jumped sharply, and the domestic toluene price finally reached the bottom Up to now, the mainstream price in East China is around 3200 yuan / ton.

 

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2. Industrial chain:

 

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, and the international oil price jumped sharply. By Friday day, Brent fell 9.36%, Brent futures rose 16.32%, WTI futures rose 11.53%, and Dubai futures fell 14.34%.

 

On the downstream side, TDI, at present, the quotation of Shanghai goods delivery with tickets is about 10000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the TDI market will stabilize next week, paying close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 456 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 474 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will rebound in shock next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Toluene analyst of business chemical branch thinks: in the short term, trump is involved in the oil price. Saudi Arabia and Russia have made statements one after another. The crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning around, and the technical impact is expected to usher in a shock rebound. In the medium term, it depends on the demand side, when the inflection point of the epidemic occurs and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will gradually fluctuate and stabilize next week. In addition, domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate and stabilize next week. However, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range under the condition that the inventory of toluene industry is too high and the industrial chain recovery is not smooth.

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Active carbon price down

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11150 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11133 yuan / ton, down 0.15%.

 

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Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is temporarily stable. At present, the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton. The domestic activated carbon market orders on demand, the market turnover is not much, and the price is under pressure.

 

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. Downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The market for purchasing activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. Environmental protection policies boost the market for activated carbon. The market lacks good news support, and the price goes down.

 

Forecast: the downstream demand of the activated carbon market is poor, and the trading atmosphere in the market is flat. It is expected that the short-term market of the activated carbon market will be dominated by weak operation.

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