According to the data of business agency, on June 12, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441ා) was 10675 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.39% compared with 11050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.79%, a decrease of 14.91% compared with 12500 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival.

The price of 441 × silicon in each region on December 12 is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10300-10400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 11200-11400 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 10600-10800 yuan / ton 。

Increasing supply of silicon metal gradually entering the wet season

In June, the price of metal silicon 441 was greatly affected by the supply and demand.

At the supply end, as the southwest region gradually enters the wet season, silicon enterprises open more furnaces. In the direction of Yunnan, the starting load of Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants increases; in the direction of Sichuan, the enthusiasm of silicon plants to open furnaces increases greatly; in the direction of Xinjiang, the production problems caused by the shortage of silica and the factors of power supply equipment are basically solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

The operating rate of silicon enterprises has increased, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the supply of metal silicon has increased. However, the demand of downstream consumers has not increased at the same time, and the overall bargaining power of silicon enterprises has shifted down.

On the one hand, the export market is still weak in June, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; on the other hand, the downstream demand in the domestic market is relatively picking up, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the expectation of raw materials is short, the raw materials procurement is more cautious, mainly on demand, and the raw materials inventory is low.

Three downstream demand poor raw material procurement cautious

1. Polysilicon

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic polysilicon price in June continued the downturn since April, with the bottom low operating mainly.

It is reported that the domestic polysilicon output in May was 32000 tons, a decline of more than 10% on a month on month basis. In June, there were still more than five polysilicon manufacturers in China, including Xinjiang Daquan, Dongfang hope, new special energy, Sichuan Yongxiang, etc. Although domestic polysilicon manufacturers cut production and stop production, the price of imported silicon materials has been innovatively low, which has a great impact on the domestic market price.

On the one hand, the installation of demand end and global terminal is blocked, and the overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, which causes the operation rate of domestic component manufacturers to be lowered one after another, which has a great impact on domestic polysilicon demand; on the other hand, the polysilicon import volume in April and may has always been at a low level, according to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis, down 34% on a year-on-year basis. Although the import volume at the import end moved down, the price of polysilicon imported materials continued to decline at the beginning of June, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton in the first week of June, which had a great impact on the domestic market price.

It is expected that in June, the operating rate and output of domestic polysilicon will move down, which is bad for the demand of raw metal silicon.

2. Organosilicon DMC

According to the data of business agency, after the return of the year, the price of organosilicon DMC fell sharply, and the low-level operation was mainly from April to May.

At the end of May, the market of organosilicon DMC opened, and the demand for organosilicon DMC improved in June. On the one hand, based on the positive replenishment of downstream, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is small. On the other hand, some factories have plans to cut production and stop repairing, and the market is expected to be better. (see the figure below for the equipment of some manufacturers)

Name of enterprise date price (yuan / ton including tax) commencement of equipment

On June 10, 17100 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was in normal operation

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. on June 10, 16500 yuan / ton, normal operation of the plant

Zhejiang Hesheng group on June 10, 17000 yuan / ton normal operation

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng will not receive the single unit temporarily on June 10, in the process of shutdown and maintenance

Shandong Jinling group will not make an offer temporarily on June 10. There is a maintenance plan this week

Hubei Xingfa group does not offer the equipment for normal operation temporarily on June 10

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily not submitting the offer for maintenance on June 10

Shandong Dongyue Group will not offer a set of equipment maintenance on June 10

The price rise of downstream organosilicon DMC is mainly due to the increase of shutdown and maintenance of manufacturers, the improvement of demand and supply factors.

However, at present, organosilicon, especially some monomer plants, based on the factors of supply chain management, raw material procurement is affected by the expected factors of buying up and not buying down, and is mainly operated cautiously. The stock of raw materials is not large. At present, consumption stock and a small amount of stock replenishment procurement are mainly based on demand. In short term, the demand for raw metal silicon is not significantly enlarged, and the benefits are not outstanding.

3. Aluminum alloy

Recently, the inventory of aluminum industry chain has been significantly reduced. As of June 4, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 46000 tons to 847000 tons compared with that of last Monday (the social inventory of aluminum ingots on May 21 was 964000 tons). It is reported that the consumption of domestic profile and aluminum foil plate is good, and the consumption of aluminum plate, strip and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable is general, but the export is not optimistic. In May 2020, China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials were 382900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%.

The operation rate of domestic aluminum alloy is affected by the improvement of terminal automobile consumption, and the operation rate is relatively high. According to the data of China Travel Federation, the retail sales of major manufacturers in May reached an average of 49000 vehicles per day, an increase of 12% on a month on month basis compared with April, and the year-on-year data basically matched the same period last year.

However, with the opening of the profit window of aluminum ingot import, the imported aluminum alloy may occupy the domestic aluminum alloy Market in the later stage. It is expected that the consumption of silicon metal for aluminum alloy will be weakened after June.

Future forecast

The metal silicon purchased under rigid demand is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. With the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity has been released, while the downstream consumption is not likely to expand synchronously. It is expected that in the near future, the metal silicon will be mainly operated in the air, and in the later stage, the environmental policy factors and the impact of the average cost of social production on the supply side will be focused.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene on May 31 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton); the price of pure benzene on Sunday (June 7) was 3550-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3660 yuan / ton), 1.67% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of pure benzene rose slightly. Crude oil and outer plate have strong support for pure benzene. Port inventory rose in the week, but the increase decreased.

On Friday (June 5), South Korea imported 429.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 31.33 US dollars / ton, up 7.87% from May 29; East China imported 435 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 28 US dollars / ton, up 6.88% from May 29.

Crude oil rose in a volatile week. It is said that OPEC + meeting will be held in advance in the week, and the market is bullish. Thursday’s meeting was not called in advance, but the atmosphere was still good. Brent rose $6.62, or 19.26%, this week from May 29, while WTI rose $3.96, or 11.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 38.59% and WTI by 34.51%

This week, the market price of styrene rose first and then declined slightly, with the overall increase. On June 5, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 5583.33 yuan / ton, up 166.66 yuan / ton or 3.08% from last week.

This week, aniline was stable as a whole, and individual enterprises cut prices for shipment. On June 5, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500-4820 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Next week, with the OPEC meeting, the oil price will rise as a whole. The resumption of work and production in foreign countries has been promoted, and the external price is firm. It is expected that the pure benzene will run stronger next week.

In May, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose first and then stabilized. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of the month was 11475 yuan / ton, and the price of the aggregate MDI at the end of the month was 12350 yuan / ton, up 7.63% in the month, down 9.36% compared with the same period last year.

Product: the average load on the supply side is low this month. Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman devices are under maintenance. The devices in Ryanair factory are still in shutdown state. The load of kostron and Chongqing BASF devices has slightly increased, but the market supply is limited. At the end of the month, the monthly listing prices of major factories are mainly rising, with an increase of about 500 yuan / ton, boosting the market price..

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: in the first ten days of the month, driven by the sharp increase in crude oil and pure benzene gold plate, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province rose. Downstream factory replenishment after the festival, refining good delivery, can sell less. In addition, the hydrogenation benzene is driven by crude benzene, rising to 3400 yuan / ton, supporting the pure benzene in Shandong at 3400-3450 yuan / ton, which is hard to find at a low price. In the middle of June, driven by Sinopec’s rise of 150 yuan / ton, Shandong refining pure benzene rose. However, the downstream is in conflict with the high price of pure benzene, and the delivery from the refineries is poor, and the market focus in Shandong has dropped to 3400-3450 yuan / ton. Crude oil rose sharply in the next month, stimulating the market, and the price of refining rose to 3600-3700 yuan / ton. However, the downstream is in conflict with the high price, the delivery of local refining is poor, and the transaction is mostly concentrated at the low end.

In terms of aniline, the domestic aniline market fell slightly in the month. As of May 29, the main negotiated price in East China market is 4600-4800 yuan / ton for acceptance. The mainstream negotiation price in Shandong market refers to 4400 yuan / ton spot exchange and 4490 yuan / ton acceptance.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

The suppliers’ attitude toward the market is expected to be the same, the supply may be more tense than that in May, and the market quotation will rise slightly. MDI analysts predict that the market will be strong before the middle of next month, but the market price may be difficult to maintain with the gradual resumption of Shanghai overhauled devices. However, Wanhua Yantai device is reported to have a maintenance plan in the middle and late of June, so it is necessary to pay attention to the dynamic changes of the market at any time.

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 4100 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 43.84% year on year.

The domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new plant is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, the first line of fuhaichuang plant is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, and the operation of Qilu Petrochemical plant is stable , Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, domestic p-xylene market price trend on Friday. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. This week, the external price trend of PX rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 485-487 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 505-507 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the rising price of international crude oil, the external price of PX rose this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported , the closing price rise of PX external market has a certain positive impact on the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market price rose this week, with main contract settlement price at 37.41 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil futures market price rising, main contract settlement price at 39.99 US dollars / barrel, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil also reached their highs in nearly three months, mainly driven by the expected warming of OPEC + extended production reduction agreement and economic recovery sentiment in the United States and Europe, driven by raw materials Favorable support effect, domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The price trend of PTA Market in the downstream of this week is rising. As of the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China was negotiated at 3650-3750 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry is 86%, and the rising crude oil price has driven the price of PTA market to rise. Up to now, PTA inventory has risen to a high near 3.55 million tons. According to the calculation of the existing capacity, the PTA operating rate is nearly 10% lower than the polyester operating rate, so the market can be basically balanced. Compared with the current PTA industry’s 86% operating load, polyester operation is obviously insufficient. Although the demand side of the downstream terminal has improved, after the middle of May, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly, and the market entered the traditional off-season. The order performance is not stable, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly cautious. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of the loom load reduction will not be ruled out in the later period. The substantial recovery still needs to be observed, and the short-term PTA stock accumulation situation is difficult to change. However, the price rise of downstream PTA market brings some good support to PX market, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is not good. For the upstream PX on-demand procurement, the PX market price trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the trend of crude oil price continues to rise in the near future, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises remains around 60%, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will remain around 4100 yuan / ton next week.

Aluminum market trend

According to the data of business agency, as of May 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13476.67 yuan / ton, up 5.18% compared with the average market price of 12813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1), and up 16.92% compared with the average market price of 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of April (April 1).

Aluminum price in May led the basic metal plate

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). Among the basic metal plates, aluminum ranked first in terms of growth, followed by aluminum (5.18%), tin (3.20%), lead (2.91%), copper (2.63%), zinc (0.26%), and nickel (0.43%).

Aluminum price in May led the basic metal plate. On the one hand, aluminum price fell deeply in the early panic decline process of non-ferrous plate, ranking second in the basic metal plate, second only to copper. The vacancy hit by the fall is deep, and there is a large space for retaliatory rebound. The increase in April is relatively low, and the aluminum price rebounded rapidly in May. As of May 29, the relative range of aluminum price rebound ranked third in the basic metal plate, lagging behind tin and lead.

According to the data of the business association, the deepest decline order of the year beginning (January 1) is copper (- 24.93%), aluminum (- 22.79%), zinc (- 20.36%), nickel (- 18.66%), tin (- 15.09%) and lead (- 13.09%). As of May 29, the order of the closest benchmark price is Sn (- 1.80%), Pb (- 4.67%), Al (- 7.40%), Zn (- 9.09%), Cu (- 9.60%) and Ni (- 11.40%).

The price recovery of non-ferrous plate reflects the gradual recovery of manufacturing economy with the full expansion of domestic resumption of production from April to May. According to BCI data, in May 2020, BCI was 0.37, with an average increase of 4.45%. The increase of BCI shows that the manufacturing economy is expanding compared with last month.

The domestic supply and demand data of electrolytic aluminum also confirmed the above views.

***Production is obvious without subtracting inventory***

In April 2020, China’s electrolytic aluminum production reached 2.958 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year on year. From January to April, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was 11.934 million tons, up 3.6% year on year. According to relevant data, the domestic aluminum consumption in April was 3.3-3.35 million tons, an increase of about 580000 tons compared with March.

In the middle and late May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) was below 1 million tons for the first time. On May 22, the total inventory of aluminum ingots for consumption in domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) was 964000 tons, a decrease of 472000 tons on a month on month basis. In May, under the background of increasing supply, domestic aluminum ingot inventory realized continuous high-speed de stocking, mainly based on the demand exceeding expectations and the increase of aluminum water supply.

Among them, the terminal product demand industry exceeded the expected performance, driving the industry chain to better expectations. For example, in the automobile industry, the automobile output in April was 2.012 million, up 2.26% year on year. In April, the automobile sales volume was 2.069 million, up 4.41% year on year, continuing the recovery momentum in March. In April, the real estate development prosperity index was 98.86, 0.67 points higher than that in March.

Note: orders for building profiles are concentrated in the fields of doors and windows, curtain walls and formworks, and the expected demand for old transformation and new infrastructure construction is strengthening. The demand for instant noodles for automobile, household appliances and mechanical equipment continues to recover.

Can aluminum price fill the “epidemic pit” in June

At present, in the futures market, the recent contract price is higher than the forward contract, and the futures market is expected to be short, mainly based on the consideration of import and export factors.

***Poor overseas demand, export pressure***

Under the influence of the overseas epidemic, China’s export orders have a greater impact. China exported 441177.1 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April, according to the General Administration of customs. In the first four months of 2020, the total export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 1628923.2 tons, down 15.9% from 1936337.8 tons in the same period of last year.

In April 2020, 72000 tons of waste aluminum will be imported, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3% and a month on month decrease of 6.7%. From January to April, 270000 tons of waste aluminum were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%.

***Strong uncertainty of production capacity after profit recovery***

Rough weighted estimation shows that 1.93 tons of alumina, 0.48 tons of anode carbon block, 0.02 tons of aluminum fluoride, 0.01 tons of cryolite and 13500 degrees of electric power are consumed per ton of aluminum, and the weighted cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is about 11800-12000 yuan / ton. The profit of aluminum plant will gradually go out from the market of pit bottom explosion loss, and the subsequent domestic production capacity may be released. (the new capacity in 2020 is estimated by quarter, as follows)

***Export pressure of internal and external aluminum price differentiation increases***

With the recovery of domestic aluminum price, foreign aluminum price is suppressed by the epidemic situation, and the market lags behind obviously. At present, the profit window of aluminum ingot import is gradually opened. As of June 1, the price of lemd is around 11000 yuan / ton, and the main price of Shanghai aluminum is around 13100 yuan / ton.

 
The supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have improved effectively, social inventory has continued to move down, domestic demand is expected to turn warm in the second quarter, and the price has risen significantly. The supply and demand of foreign market is relatively weak, and the price difference between domestic and foreign market is large, which is bad for export.

Based on domestic demand, aluminum price in June may enter a period of shock

The current price trend is: spot price of domestic aluminum ingots > recent contract price of Shanghai aluminum > forward contract price of Shanghai aluminum within the year > contract price of lunwai aluminum.

From April to may, the price of aluminum rose, and the influence factor of spot was large. It can also be confirmed from the domestic aluminum production in April:

Monthly production of aluminum in each region in March and April (unit: 10000 tons)

Domestic terminal consumption has recovered, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to move down. At present, the consumption of downstream consumer profiles and aluminum foil plates is better, while the consumption of aluminum strip and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable tends to be weaker, taking into account 7 and 8 The month is the traditional off-season of aluminum consumption (although in the historical price trend, the off-season has no obvious impact on the price). In the environment of difficult export and based on domestic demand, ye Jianjun, an analyst of the business club, predicted that the aluminum price in June was weak. With the gradual convergence of the overseas market, the probability of a sharp jump in domestic aluminum price was not large, and it is expected to run in a volatile way within the 12800-13800 yuan / ton range Lord.

According to the monitoring and statistics of the business agency, the price of domestic fluorite fell in May. The price at the end of the month was 2655.56 yuan / ton, down 4.02% compared with 2766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of fluorite first decreased and then increased in the whole may, but the overall price still fell.

In May, the price trend fell first and then rose. At the beginning of May, due to the increase of domestic fluorite price supply and the Limited procurement of downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, the market price of fluorite declined significantly. In the middle of the year, fluorite price remained low and fluctuated. Some fluorite manufacturers reported that the price was near the cost line, and fluorite price trend was stable. However, at the end of the month, domestic enquiries increased. Some manufacturers reported that their orders for fluorspar had increased recently. Stimulated by the increase of enquiries, domestic fluorspar manufacturers had strong rising sentiment. The price of fluorspar was ready to be issued, and the price in the market bottomed out and rebounded. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher. As of the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. In recent years, domestic fluorite merchants are bullish, and the trading market of domestic fluorite market is warmer, but the overall price in May Georgia is still down.

In May, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite declined. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China was 8630 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 10.66%. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the overall price of fluorite fell. Affected by public health events, domestic refrigerant industry demand is not good. On the one hand, the domestic demand is not good, the refrigerant industry starts to maintain less than 30%, which is not good for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand. On the other hand, the export of refrigerants in the past two months has been limited to a certain extent, and the domestic safety and health time is serious. The economy of overseas enterprises has just started to resume work, and the export of refrigerants has declined sharply, resulting in the low price of domestic refrigerants industry. In May, the price of refrigerant products fell. As of the end of the month, the price of domestic R22 products was 14833.33 yuan / ton, down 10.10% in two months; the price of R134a was 18833.33 yuan / ton, down 15.67%. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry is in a downturn, the market price of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is significantly lower, foreign special events are serious, the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, in addition to the low start of domestic air conditioning industry, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. Overall, domestic and foreign demand are not as expected. The price of refrigerant products continued to decline. In addition, the procurement of downstream industries was not active, and the demand situation was poor. The price of refrigerant products was low, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The price of fluorite market still fell in May.

On the whole, fluorite prices fell in May. In recent years, fluorite market reflected the increase of inquiry list, the shortage of spot supply of fluorite, and the reluctance of merchants to sell. However, the market of downstream refrigerant industry did not improve significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that fluorite prices will maintain an upward trend in June, but the demand of refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, and fluorite market growth will be affected to a certain extent Limitations.

Commodity index: on May 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Business agency (100 ppi.com ）According to the monitoring data, after the reduction of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) in April 2020, the overall quotation range of the whole country did not change much in May, the quotation of quotation enterprises monitored by the business association was stable, and the prices of some other manufacturers were slightly reduced, about 20-50 yuan / ton. Main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12% including tax 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860 yuan / ton; content 24% quoted price 1100-1200 yuan / ton; content 26% price 1280-1400 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1580-2000 yuan / ton; spray type content is more than 30% 30% yuan 1600-1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content is more than 28% 28% price quoted yuan yuan / ton, food grade quoted price About 0 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, in the upstream products of polyaluminium chloride, the factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China increased slightly in May, 196 yuan / ton on May 1, 209 yuan / ton on May 29, with a range of 6.64%, and the monthly variation frequency was not high. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem. Downstream: the current market demand is still the biggest factor affecting the price of products, while the downstream demand is still relatively low.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area have stopped production and delayed to return to work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area have resumed production in succession; in March, the logistics has gradually recovered, and the transportation cost has returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, due to the difficulty of delivery, some enterprises still have high inventory, and the production is affected; in May, polyaluminium chloride The overall demand has not recovered, the market situation is poor, the shipment is average, and the transaction continues to be weak.

With regard to the future market, the analysis of the business agency shows that the price of raw materials fluctuated slightly in the upstream in May, the downstream demand did not get better, the transaction atmosphere was general, the future market of polyaluminium chloride will remain stable, and the enterprises with higher inventory will reduce the price.

US gasoline cracking price gap continues to fall, API inventory growth higher than expected

Yesterday morning we suggested that the adjustment of crude oil is not over and there may be a significant correction. WTI fell 6.07% yesterday. API inventory growth was higher than expected, adding to the decline in crude oil. Yesterday’s API inventory report showed an increase of 8.73 million barrels in crude oil, 1.12 million barrels in gasoline, 6.91 million barrels in heating oil and 3.37 million barrels in Cushing. With the recovery of oil prices, crude oil production is expected to pick up. The price of more than $30 per barrel will enable some shale oil companies to survive. For prices above $40, the discipline of OPEC + production reduction will be reduced.

Us fuel seasonal peak demand started flat. Memorial Day usually marks the beginning of the summer driving season in the United States. From last Thursday to Monday, the demand for gasoline in the United States decreased by 1.34% compared with the previous week, and the consumption on Monday decreased by 0.5% compared with the previous week. The consumption of gasoline on this long weekend decreased by 25% to 35% compared with the previous week. Despite the open beaches and the impact of the epidemic, people drive locally, whereas in previous years they travel far away. The price difference of gasoline cracking in the United States continues to fall, while gasoline keeps up with crude oil. In the near future, the price difference of gasoline cracking in the United States continues to fall, indicating that the gasoline price is weak with the rising crude oil price.

The limited boost in gasoline demand after the resumption of work in the United States may be related to the trend of home office. The follow-up crude oil needs to be shaken and consolidated, waiting for the global resumption of work to further strengthen, so as to promote the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil and boost the cracking profit, so that crude oil can have a new impetus to a new level. Short term attention Brent 08 contract support around 34-35, SC due to the relatively strong depreciation of RMB. The crude oil monthly spread weakened. In the middle of May, Brent’s monthly difference between January and February strengthened to – 0.24, the highest since the middle of March this year. The recent high volatility of crude oil, Brent’s monthly difference between January and February weakened to – 0.71 again yesterday. Middle East to Far East freight rose 0.17 to 1.81. EFS-0.69。

Industry highlights: 1. Some organizations predict that the global oil market may realize the balance of supply and demand in June;

① Compared with Russia’s news on the recovery of supply and demand balance of oil market in July, some analysts and banks predict that the global crude oil market may achieve supply and demand balance as early as June, with the easing of the epidemic blockade, the reduction of production by top producers and the recovery of demand.

② JBC Energy said: “as we approach June, the market sentiment will further strengthen, and the global net short crude oil position will reach 1.5 million barrels / day, the lowest level since August 2019.”

③ Traffic congestion data from some of the world’s capitals show that gasoline demand has returned to its level a year ago.

④ The IEA expects the pressure on global storage to ease significantly in the second half of the year. Neil Atkinson, head of IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said: “as we fall into supply shortages in the second half of the year, the trend of inventory filling will begin to reverse.”

⑤ Goldman Sachs said this month that the global oil market would be in short supply in June, adding that the biggest improvement in demand was the use of gasoline for road transport in China, the US and Germany.

⑥ But Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International is expected to reach a balance by the end of August or mid September, saying that the rise in liquidity so far “will not offset the collapse of demand.”.

⑦ Bank of America’s global research department is cautious about any forecast, saying: “we cannot rule out the second spread of the epidemic and further blockade. Any surplus in the oil market may quickly break this delicate balance.”

2. Wood McKenzie: China’s gasoline and diesel demand is expected to achieve year-on-year growth in the third quarter;

① China’s gasoline and diesel demand is expected to grow year-on-year in the third quarter of this year as the economy restarts on a larger scale, and China’s oil demand is expected to grow 2.3% year-on-year in the second half of this year, wood McKenzie, an international energy consultancy, said Tuesday.

② Wood McKenzie predicted that China’s oil demand will pick up to 13 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, up 16.3% on month, but still down 2.5% year on year.

③ Wood Mackenzie said that private cars are favored due to safety under the impact of the epidemic, China is also relaxing the epidemic restrictions on social, commercial and tourism activities, and gasoline demand is rapidly recovering, which is likely to pick up to the same level last year in June.

1、 Price trend

This week (5.18-22), the domestic polysilicon market continued the decline in the first ten days of May, and the price continued to explore the bottom. The prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees, mainly because the prices of manufacturers continued to decline, and the price of imported silicon materials successively hit the domestic market with a new low. However, the root cause is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. Therefore, the market price of polysilicon continued to decline this week, and the price of new orders in the market dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material decline is 4.49%. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for six consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon has reached a new low.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, at present, polysilicon supply is still abundant. Affected by inventory pressure and sluggish downstream procurement, the number of maintenance manufacturers is also increasing. As of May 22, the number of domestic polysilicon maintenance and load reduction manufacturers increased from 2 in April to 5. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, polysilicon import price continued to decline this week, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, and cheap silicon materials continued to impact the domestic market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage, most of which are signed in June, and some of them have signed orders in June. In addition, affected by the increase of transportation cost caused by high-speed charges, the profits of manufacturers are further squeezed, and the delivery speed of manufacturers is further reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 38000-42000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still weak, especially the external demand continues to decline, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operation rate of domestic component manufacturers to be reduced, which is transmitted to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain, especially at present, the epidemic situation in India is becoming increasingly serious, the demand temperature is delayed, and the polycrystalline demand is significantly reduced The mouth is greatly affected. The production time of new single crystal production capacity can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply side to some extent. On the other hand, the downstream components are affected by the decline of overseas demand, and the reduction of orders causes the price to drop again and again, which is transmitted to the upstream silicon material industry, forcing enterprises to reduce the price for shipment..

3、 Future prospects

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure of polysilicon is still obvious at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprise maintenance, it is currently 5 enterprise maintenance, which is expected to increase to 7 by the end of the month, and the supply pressure in the later stage may be resolved. However, the demand side problem is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, mainly due to the fact that the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled, especially in India, where the demand for photovoltaic products in China has shrunk, the price of orders has fallen, and the overseas anti-dumping efforts against photovoltaic products in China have increased, the export situation in the short term is still not optimistic, and the recent price of silicon materials is still under pressure.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China this week was temporarily stable, with an offer of 203.33 yuan / ton. On the whole, hydrochloric acid market is stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index of 53.51 on May 22.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the quotation of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the overall market is average. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 420 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is 150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in the near future, while the downstream rare earth and fuel demand is weak. Business analysts believe that the recent low consolidation of hydrochloric acid mainly.