In the case of stable supply and demand, the impact of power coal storage on the price increases. In August, the average daily coal consumption decreased, while the production of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi gradually recovered, and the power plant inventory was also at a high level. Therefore, the price of steam coal in late August dropped and adjusted, and the probability of decline increased.

Average daily coal consumption will decrease

From January to July, China’s power generation increased by 3.33% year-on-year, of which thermal power generation increased by 2.63%. From the monthly data, the average daily coal consumption of the six power generation groups increased significantly in March, especially from the middle of March. The month on month growth rate was 25% in March, 4.2% in April, 13.16% and 0.96% in May and June, respectively. In July, although the rainstorm affected the downstream construction progress, the average daily coal consumption remained at a high level. In August, with the end of large-scale rainfall in southern China and the recovery of downstream construction, it is expected that the average daily coal consumption of industrial enterprises will rise month on month in the middle and late August, while the civil power consumption is still at a high level. Recently, the electricity consumption in Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places has reached an all-time high. The average daily coal consumption in the middle and last ten days of August may be the highest in the year.

In addition, from the seasonal point of view, the peak of thermal power generation is from July to August every year, which is also the peak season of power coal consumption. According to the statistical data analysis of the past eight years, the thermal power generation in August was higher than that in July in six years, except for 2014 and 2017. In absolute terms, the average daily thermal power generation in August increased by 0.5% – 1% compared with that in July. Therefore, we speculate that the thermal power generation capacity in August this year is still rising compared with July, but the range is limited.

Coal supply is gradually restored

As one of the largest coal producing areas in China, Inner Mongolia has been looking back at coal mines for 20 years since the end of April. Since 2000, all coal mines in Inner Mongolia have been included in the inventory, including planning and approval, investment audit, resource allocation and environmental audit. In this case, the output of Inner Mongolia fell by 12.9% in May and 9.6% in June. It is expected that coal production will gradually recover from July to August.

Since the middle and late July, the tense situation of coal spot market supply has eased, especially recently, the mine mouth coal supply in Inner Mongolia has increased, the spot shipment is slightly under pressure, and the price is weakening. However, since the end of July in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, the overall sales have weakened, the inventory has accumulated and the coal price has been lowered.

On the other hand, import coal increased more than expected. In August, Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal steam coal price rose to 543 yuan / ton, Shanxi Youhun 5500 kcal steam coal price rose to 578 yuan / ton, which is already in the high price area of the guiding price. Once the price rises to 600 yuan / ton, it will touch the lower limit of the red range of coal price proposed in the memorandum on suppressing the abnormal fluctuation of coal market price, and the state will start to stabilize the abnormal fluctuation price Mechanism. Therefore, there is limited space for coal prices to rise further. In addition, 8.39 million tons of steam coal were imported in June, an increase of 2.42 million tons compared with 5.97 million tons in May. Although the import volume in July decreased by 20.6% year-on-year, it increased by 810000 tons on a month on month basis. This shows that when the price of domestic coal is high, the control on imported coal will be relaxed.

As of the middle of July, the electric coal inventory of the power plants of the national unified dispatching was about 140 million tons, an increase of 5.1 million tons compared with the end of June, which was the highest level in the history of summer, and the available days of inventory increased to 27 days. The inventory of national key power plants also rose to a high level of 86 million tons, and the available days remained above 22 days.

At the same time, port inventory is also increasing. Since the end of May, coal stocks in both southern and northern ports have been on the rise, indicating that consumption in the South has also declined with the increase of supply in the north. The purchase intention of downstream terminal is low, the actual transaction of coal in the market is cold, and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the mainstream quotations rise first and then fall. The basis has dropped from more than 30 yuan per ton in mid July to about – 17 yuan / ton at present, significantly down.

Yesterday, the domestic butadiene market was stable. In the morning, Sinopec announced a price adjustment plan. Dalian Hengli, Inner Mongolia Jiutai and Liaoyang petrochemicals all increased significantly. In the afternoon, Sinopec sales companies announced a price increase of 200 yuan / ton, and each petrochemical enterprise implemented 5400 yuan / ton. On August 18, the closing price of butadiene in Asia and Europe remained stable. Dealers have two attitudes: one is to follow the trend and the other is to keep the price unchanged and wait and see. At present, the market is generally optimistic, but the specific transaction follow-up is insufficient. Downstream synthetic rubber market quotation slightly increased, but obviously insufficient support. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic butadiene market high volatility.

Summary of closing prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe on August 18:

Regional and national closing prices up and down

Asia FOB Korea 540-550 USD / T 0

Asia CFR China $570-580 / T 0

Europe FOB Rotterdam $395-405 / T 0

Europe FD northwest Europe 340-350 euro / T 0

On August 19, the business agency monitored the quotation of domestic traders

Enterprise specification price

High grade product of Panjin Xinya Chemical Co., Ltd., with purity over 99.5% and 5900 yuan / ton

Excellent product of Beijing ruikaiming Chemical Co., Ltd., with purity over 99.5%, 6200 yuan / ton

Shandong Zengyue Chemical Trade Co., Ltd. excellent grade product, purity more than 99.5% 5800 yuan / ton

On August 18, the business agency monitored the closing price of domestic rubber

Product price

The reference price of styrene butadiene rubber was 8041.67, up 0.1% compared with August 1 (8033.33)

The reference price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 8070.00, unchanged with August 1

The reference price of NBR was 13466.67, which was 0.74% lower than that on August 1 (13566.67)

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3520 yuan / ton, down 0.84% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international oil price rose sharply and fell back. Affected by this, the price of isomerized xylene decreased slightly this week. Meanwhile, affected by the low operating rate of downstream PX manufacturers, the demand for isomeric xylene slowed down, the market transaction was not active, and the price was weak and stable. The port inventory is high, about 160000 tons by the end of last week, and the progress of de stocking is slow. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3650 yuan / ton. As the new coronavirus epidemic leads to the reduction of crude oil demand and the impact of geopolitical tightening on economic recovery concerns, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, the international oil price rose and fell. As of Friday, Brent rose 0.255 USD / barrel to 44.515 USD / barrel, up 0.58% month on month. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand prospect and oil price trend mainly depend on the trend of global epidemic situation and the orderly recovery of national economy. At the same time, how oil producing countries and oil enterprises adjust their production is also an important factor affecting oil prices.

Downstream, PX market, domestic Sinopec’s listed price is about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 536 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 554 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the market price dropped slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3630 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 445 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / T. the external price of o-benzene is about 518 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 543 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA, API inventory data in the short term. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

Price trend:

According to the business agency data monitoring, the contract price of o-benzene Sinopec fell in August. As of August 17, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month, and the market of o-xylene is weaker.

Price trend of raw materials

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell in August. The cost of raw materials of o-benzene fell this week, and the market of o-benzene was negative, and the downward pressure of o-benzene market increased.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price continued to decline in August, and the phthalic anhydride market hit the bottom and rebounded on August 17, while the phthalic anhydride market fell and the o-benzene market was negative. The downstream demand of o-benzene decreased and the market of o-benzene was negative.

Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, the market of o-xylene continued to decline in August, and the market of o-benzene was not rising enough, and the pressure of o-benzene market falling was greater. Generally speaking, there is a greater pressure on the future market of o-benzene industry chain, and the risk of future market decline of o-benzene is greater, and the market of o-benzene is expected to decline in the future.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2340 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 18.98%. On August 14, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 123.16, which was the same as yesterday, 1.68% lower than 125.26 (2020-03-15), and 59.18% higher than 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are in a general situation of plant start-up. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Some manufacturers reflect that the goods are in general. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, the transportation is normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, some manufacturers’ prices are stable, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2200 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid fell slightly this week, with the weekend price of 1516.67 yuan / ton, and the price trend of this week dropped by 1.09%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offered 1400 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offered 1750 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical industry quoted 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance equipment has been running normally, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the situation of goods taking in the field is general, the prices of some manufacturers have fallen down, and the market price of nitric acid has slightly decreased. The decline of nitric acid price is the negative influence of ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, and the price trend of liquid ammonia rose 0.54% this week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant was normal, the spot supply was normal, and the market price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. However, due to the impact of inventory pressure, the liquid ammonia plants in Shandong are stable, and the price of liquid ammonia has returned to stable. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will not change much in the near future, and the trend of various regions will be differentiated to some extent, which may lead to partial imbalance of supply in the short term. It is said that there may be equipment maintenance in large factories in Shandong Province It has great influence on the market price of Shandong and Hebei. On the demand side, the downstream procurement may slow down in the later stage, resulting in some pressure in the later stage of liquid ammonia supply. Domestic liquid ammonia supply pressure still exists, especially the regional imbalance, which leads to greater supply pressure in some regions. In terms of demand, the peak season of downstream fertilizer demand is no longer, the upstream liquid ammonia market price rises slightly, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is limited, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are generally. The price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable, which has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may stabilize temporarily in the future.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province this weekend was 4400 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the week, it was 4433 yuan / ton, down 0.75%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4500 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than last week. Paraformaldehyde is still in general.

According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market price was 1640 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1632 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.46% during the week. The downstream market demand for paraformaldehyde was general.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, POM analysts believe that the price of POM may be weak.

According to the data of business agency, the average weekly quotation of domestic industrial grade purified water formic acid is 1716.67 yuan / ton this week. The overall formic acid market is relatively stable this week, and the dealers and manufacturers have not adjusted much.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a relatively stable trend, and the price was flat compared with the same period last month. In terms of equipment: the manufacturers and distributors operate normally and the shipment is acceptable. This week, the supply of formic acid market is fair, and the enterprises have inventory. In terms of price: this week, the quoted price of enterprises is basically around 1716.67 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of formic acid for industrial water purification is about 1350-1700 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is at 2750 yuan / ton. As of Friday (August 7), Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1400 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1350 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trading Co., Ltd. offered 2100 yuan / ton of 85% formic acid in barrels; Jintan local supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. offered 1950 yuan / T; Jinan senhong New Trade Co., Ltd. offered 2700 yuan / T.

The domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products was stable and slightly down. The urea market increased this week, and the price fell. The overall situation of methanol fell slightly. The domestic caustic soda market declined slightly, and the overall trend was stable. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the downstream products such as leather and pesticide industries are relatively stable, and the sales situation is general. This week, there is a small decline in formic acid products.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data analyst of the business agency, the overall price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China is relatively stable, and the current price is slightly adjusted compared with the same period last month. Recently, the inventory of dealers is fair, the upstream and downstream demand is relatively cold, and the enterprise’s shipment is not much. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (August 5): 345.00 yuan / ton

On August 5, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province dropped slightly, 12.50 yuan / ton, or 3.50%, compared with the price on August 3. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, but the high consolidation of the downstream silica and ammonium chloride market has brought a certain support to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the maintenance of enterprises has increased recently, the supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid still impacts the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is greater.

Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 350 yuan / ton.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on July 30 was 34.49, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 66.19% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and increased by 15.01% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (North China) in July 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

July 1 3050 – 200

July 23 3100 + 50

July 27 3200 + 100

30 July 3300 + 100

In July 2020, Sinopec increased the ex factory price of pure benzene three times and lowered it once. As of the end of the month, Sinopec implemented 3300 yuan / ton of pure benzene in North China, an increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of Shandong hydrobenzene monitored in the above figure that the hydrobenzene market has been running smoothly after a small rise in the first half of this month, and the price is rising towards the end of the month, with an overall upward trend of concussion. In the first half of the month, the slight price rise was mainly affected by the slight rebound of pure benzene market price in Shandong. At the beginning of the month, the pure benzene in Shandong experienced a wave of rebound, and then affected by the continuous rise of inventory, the market mentality was slightly poor and the price stabilized. In the same period, the downstream styrene market also slightly improved, aniline inventory pressure eased, prices rose slightly, hydrobenzene market fundamentals and downstream favorable led to market price rise, after the fundamentals were good digestion, pure benzene market price remained stable, hydrogenated benzene market was difficult to support, several continued to rise, entered the consolidation period. After that, the pure benzene market declined slightly in the middle of the year, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong area weakened under the pressure of delivery. Port inventory rose to 264000 tons. Hydrobenzene market fundamentals are under pressure. The price dropped slightly about 50 yuan / ton.

The bottom support of the pure benzene market was stronger, and the external market of pure benzene rose for four consecutive days. Although the port inventory was still high, there was some market purchase intention near the end of the month, which supported the price rise of pure benzene. Crude benzene experienced auction and price fluctuation in the middle and late ten days of the month, which supported the price rebound. The hydrobenzene market was supported by multiple fundamentals, and the price rose.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun Chemical Park 100000 tons

Shandong Derun Chemical Park 150000 tons

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Industry Park 100000 tons

Panjin Ruide parking 200000 tons, there are plans in the near future, to be determined

Shandong Huineng chemical 50% 200000 tons

Recently, there are still a lot of overhauling in hydrogenated benzene enterprises, some of which have been shut down for more than three months. The units of Tangshan Baoshun, Panjin Ruide, Jinneng and shouchuang have been shut down. The restart time is still to be determined, and the overall operating rate in East China is still low.

In the aftermarket, the business club believes that the pressure of hydrobenzene market cost remains, and the crude oil price fluctuates, which has caused a certain degree of market wait-and-see sentiment. In the future, the market still needs to focus on the changes of pure benzene inventory.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3510 yuan / ton, down 1.13% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

The price of isomeric xylene dropped slightly this week. Affected by the lower profit margin and lower operating rate of downstream PX manufacturers, the demand for isomeric xylene slowed down and the market transaction was not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3600 yuan / ton. Due to the weak GDP data of Europe and the United States in the second quarter, demand concerns caused by the new coronavirus epidemic and the deepening impact of geopolitical confrontation, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, international oil prices down, high, fall again, overall maintain a volatile trend. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.01 per barrel, or 0.02%, to close at $42.885. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. The future market closely watched the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil in the range of 40-44 USD / barrel.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 525 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 543 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3570 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 437 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / T. the external price of o-benzene is about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 538 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA, API inventory data in the short term. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the possible economic recovery rescue plans launched by Europe and the United States. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.