According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market rose in June. As of the 28th day, the price of phthalic anhydride by ortho phthalic method was 5212.5 yuan / ton, 4.51% higher than the price of 4987.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 8.55% lower than the same period last year. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose accordingly.

In June, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market went up, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride market was normal. The high price of crude oil boosted domestic petrochemical products, the price of ortho benzene was affected higher, and the price of phthalic anhydride market was affected by the support of raw materials. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is about 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site trading market is general. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China is higher, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China is 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and the observable state of phthalic anhydride in the market still exists. The market price of phthalic anhydride is rising, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising.

In June, the price of domestic phthalic acid rose sharply. By the end of the month, the price of phthalic acid was 4460 yuan / ton, 6.19% higher than the price of 4200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The increase of domestic phthalic acid price is the most favorable support for phthalic acid Market. In addition, the import phthalic acid Market in port area has warmed up, and the external price of phthalic acid has increased. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed. In addition, the phthalic acid merchants on the site are very bullish, The price of phthalic anhydride increases with the increase of o-benzene price.

In June, the market price of DOP downstream of phthalic anhydride rose. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of DOP in June rose by 5.49%. The market performance of DOP was strong. By the end of the month, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, 5.49% higher than that of DOP at the beginning of the month, 6983.33 yuan / ton higher than that of isooctanol, and the market price of DOP was higher. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, and the price of DOP market is 7300-7500 yuan / ton. The trading enthusiasm of market plasticizer is increased, and the downstream market is higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and phthalic anhydride market is higher.

Overall, crude oil prices rose. According to the monitoring of the business association, the settlement price of the main contracts in the US WTI crude oil futures market was $38.49/barrel on the 26th, and that of the main contracts in the Brent crude oil futures market was $40.93. Crude oil prices continued to rise in June, driven higher by the agreement on production reduction reached by major oil producers. At present, the contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of oversupply is still the primary problem that puzzles the oil market. However, with the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. Driven by the increase of crude oil price, the price of domestic petrochemical products will be boosted, and most of domestic petrochemical products will increase in varying degrees.

In the near future, the crude oil price is high and volatile, and the raw material o-benzene price trend is stable, but the trading price of plasticizer is general. The downward pressure of DOP market is still there, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in July will be slightly lower.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Since June, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market has been in weak and stable operation. The average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises as of June 24 was 54666.67 yuan / ton, down 1.80% compared with the beginning of the month and 4.09% compared with April 24, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies.

At the beginning of May, the orders of large lithium hydroxide plants were relatively stable, the shipments of small and medium-sized enterprises were relatively general, and the focus of market negotiations was temporarily stable. According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average price of industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 57000 yuan / ton. With the weak operation of the upstream lithium carbonate market, the cost support was weakened, and the new orders of the market were generally closed. The price of lithium hydroxide was reduced to 55666.67 yuan / ton, 6 In June, the upstream lithium carbonate market continued to bear pressure. The downstream demand was flat, and the cost and demand were double drag. At present, the average price of industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, down 5.20% compared with the beginning of the year.

In the near future, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is relatively stable. According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China as of June 23 was 39860 yuan / ton, down 0.85% compared with the beginning of the month and 3.25% compared with May 23; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China as of June 23 was 44200 yuan / ton, down 2.21% compared with May 23. At present, the market stock is relatively high, the spot transaction situation is weak, and the impact of imported lithium carbonate on the domestic market, it is expected that the market price of lithium carbonate will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the recent lithium carbonate market tends to be relatively stable, with limited cost support, and general domestic downstream demand. It is expected that in the short term, the market of industrial lithium hydroxide will be weak and stable.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 21, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was around 7833.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price of 8766.67 on June 14 a week ago, the price was reduced by 930 yuan / ton, or 10.65%. Compared with the beginning of the month (the reference average price on June 1 is 6233.33), the price increased by 1600 yuan / ton, or 25.67%. The maximum amplitude is 40.11% from June 1 to 22.

Butanone market soared 40.11% in early June

Although the overall market of butanone in May is still sluggish, most of the operators did not report much expectation on the market of butanone in June at the end of the month, but it is the sluggish situation for several months in succession, and the overstocked expectation of the operators has become the fuse of the soaring market of butanone in the first ten days of June.

In June, with the sharp rise of crude oil market and the sharp rise of acetone market, the butanone market was strongly supported. Butanone market operators are in a good mood, and the downstream market is also replenished. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the market price keeps rising. In the second week of June, the butanone market continued to rise and rise. Starting on the 9th, many factories stopped for maintenance. The factory inventory decreased and the supply was tight, which brought certain benefits to the market. It is understood that the butanone market as a whole began to increase broadly from the 10th, but most butanone factories chose to close the offer without reporting due to the market price turbulence. After the quotation was resumed on the 12th, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of butanone had risen to around 8733 yuan / ton, and the price during the closing period increased by 2000 yuan / ton, or 30.2%, which was 40.11% higher than that at the beginning of June. However, some insiders said that the sharp rise in prices did not rule out the intention of high price speculation. Under the real high price, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, with few replenishers, and the supply-demand stalemate was revealed. We heard that the actual transaction in the butanone market on the 11th and 12th had shown signs of let loose.

The butanone market fell nearly 11% this week

On Monday (15th), many butanone factories closed their offers but failed to make them available. A few of them began to reduce their prices rationally. The price reduction range is around 100-300 yuan / ton. The factory inventory is always low. At present, the inventory is mainly in the secondary market. The weakness of the terminal demand affects the delivery rhythm. The downstream procurement conflicts with the high price, and the procurement strength is limited. The butanone market fell all the way this week. The industry More careful operation. At present, as of the 21st day, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 7833 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price of 8766.67 on June 12 a week ago, the price has been reduced by 933 yuan / ton, nearly 11%. Among them, the market in South China is not smooth, the reference price of butanone factory is around 7600 yuan / ton, which falls by 1000 yuan / ton this week after the sharp rise, with a weekly drop of 11.6%; the market in East China is weak, and the reference price of butanone factory is around 7700 yuan / ton, which falls by 800 yuan / ton this week after the sharp rise, with a weekly drop of 9.41%; the market in North China is down, and the reference price of butanone factory is around 7400 yuan / ton, which falls after the sharp rise This week, it fell 600 yuan / ton, down 7.5%.

Attached are the starting conditions of some butanone plants in this week (6.15-6.19) (for reference only):

Name of enterprise, capacity, unit operating rate and operation

Lanzhou Petrochemical 60000t / a 80% normal

40 thousand tons / year of Dongming Petrochemical, 80% normal

Zibo Qixiang 150000t / a 80% normal

Hebei Zoje 30000 T / a 100% normal

Ningbo Haiyue 40000 tons / year 0 parking

Dushanzi Tianli 40000 / T 80% normal

On the upstream side, in June, the decline of liquefied natural gas came to an end for the time being, and a wave of small gains came in the first ten days. According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on June 11 was 2503.33 yuan / ton, 1.35% higher than 2470 yuan / ton on June 1, and 27.51% lower than the same period last year. This week, the LNG market rose weakly, and the overall market was relatively stable at the beginning of the week, with a slight downward trend in some regions over the weekend (19). According to the monitoring data of business association, the reference price of LNG on June 19 was 2483.33 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton or 0.54% compared with 2470 yuan / ton on June 1.

On the whole, although the butanone inventory is at a low level, but in the absence of a clear positive overall supply and demand, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the market will be dominated by narrow range consolidation in the short term, and traders will continue to reduce the ex factory price of butanone in order to stimulate shipment.

Magnesium market trend

On June 22, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas varied. At present, the mainstream quotation began to differentiate, with the overall range of 13050-13500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation was the main part.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 22nd was 13233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.13% compared with the average price of 13216.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of June (6.1); the average price of market on the 19th weekend was 13133.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76%.

Magnesium price has been fluctuating for a long time

In June, the market of magnesium ingot mainly fluctuated at the bottom of the market, with a relatively stable trend. The manufacturer’s quotation was basically stable, with slight mobilization from time to time, and the overall trend was stable.

Market participants believe that at present, the price of magnesium ingots is stable in June, and domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they are basically purchasing on demand, and they are not willing to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are less willing to reduce price and promote sales, more willing to stop production and repair, and the market supply and demand game tends to be stable.

Supply and demand are relatively stable

According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to April 2020, China’s Communist original magnesium 255800 tons, down 6.00% year on year. The output of the first four months has slightly decreased. In summer, with the influence of weather factors and the superposition of traditional maintenance practices, the manufacturer’s operating rate is expected to move down.

Note: the annual output of raw magnesium in 2019 is 969000 tons.

On the export side, the export market in the first four months was good, and the recent export was weak, but domestic consumption returned to normal. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to April 2020, the total export volume of six kinds of tax number magnesium products in China is 162500 tons, an increase of 1.63% year on year.

Among them, from January to April, 86500 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, up 1.63% year on year; 43600 tons of magnesium alloy, up 6.08% year on year; 27500 tons of magnesium powder, down 10.71% year on year; 2600 tons of magnesium waste, up 116.67% year on year; 15000 tons of magnesium products, down 6.25% year on year; and 0800 tons of magnesium processing materials, the same as the same period last year.

List of monthly exports of unwrought and rolled magnesium in 2019-2020:

 
April is the starting point for commodity prices (including non-ferrous metals) to rise to fill the price hole of the epidemic hit at the beginning of the year. The price of magnesium ingot also stopped falling and stabilized in the first ten days of April, but the upward attack was weak, and the basic magnesium price fluctuated mainly at the bottom, based on the following two factors:

1. In recent years, the price trend of magnesium ingot is good and relatively high;

 
On June 21, the magnesium commodity index was 80.08, the same as yesterday, 30.02% lower than the highest point 114.43 (2012-08-01), and 10.18% higher than the lowest point 72.68 on January 10, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-03-01 to now).

2. The export proportion of magnesium ingots is relatively large, and the external environment has a relatively large impact on the price of magnesium ingots. According to relevant statistics, in 2019, China exported 452000 tons of various magnesium products, accounting for 46.6% of the total magnesium output.

Domestic demand is not enough to drive up the market of magnesium ingots. Since mid April, the price of magnesium ingots has been running steadily.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingots is low, and the weather is gradually turning hot. It is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply side will have some good price for magnesium. When the Dragon Boat Festival comes, some manufacturers will increase their price, and they are expected to break the steady state in the near future, with a slight increase. In the later stage, they will pay attention to the change of downstream purchase rhythm.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market has been stable temporarily in the near future. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method was 5275 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 5.41% year on year.

This week, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is stable, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride market is normal. The high price of crude oil has boosted domestic petrochemical products, the price of ortho benzene has been affected, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has been shaken. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is about 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site trading market is picking up. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is higher, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China is 5200-5400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 4900-5100 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride in North China is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the observation state of the phthalic anhydride in the market still exists, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is generally stable.

This week, the good support of phthalic anhydride market price is the rising price of domestic phthalic acid, the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, the execution price of domestic phthalic Sinopec increased by 200 yuan / ton to 4460 yuan / ton, the import price of phthalic acid in port area recovered, the external quotation of phthalic acid rose, the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed. In addition, there is strong bullish sentiment among the phthalic acid merchants, the price of phthalic acid rose, and the upstream raw material phthalic acid Price rise is a good support for phthalic anhydride market price.

Another positive support is the higher price of downstream DOP market. This week, the price of plasticizer DOP rose slightly, and the market performance of DOP market was strong. Recently, the price of DOP in East China is 7233.33 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from 7133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. In addition, the price of isooctanol is rising, and the market price of DOP is higher. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, and the price of DOP market is 7300-7400 yuan / ton. The trading enthusiasm of market plasticizer has increased, and the downstream market has gone higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile.

In the near future, crude oil price is high and volatile, the price trend of raw material o-benzene is rising, and the transaction of plasticizer is positive. The downward pressure of DOP market in the future is still strong, and the sustained good support is still there. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell slightly this week, from 335.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 330.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.49%. Overall, hydrochloric acid fell slightly this week, with the June 12 hydrochloric acid commodity index at 86.84.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation fell slightly, the overall market is average. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 420 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is 190 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan lower compared with the beginning of the week /Tons.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has a general market, which has weak support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream white carbon black market has a low consolidation, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market has a high consolidation, which has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to have declined slightly this week, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid shipment is still a major problem.

3、 Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in the near future, while the downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride are mainly purchased on demand. Business analysts believe that the recent low consolidation of hydrochloric acid mainly.

According to the data of business agency, on June 12, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441ා) was 10675 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.39% compared with 11050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.79%, a decrease of 14.91% compared with 12500 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival.

The price of 441 × silicon in each region on December 12 is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10300-10400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 11200-11400 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 10600-10800 yuan / ton 。

Increasing supply of silicon metal gradually entering the wet season

In June, the price of metal silicon 441 was greatly affected by the supply and demand.

At the supply end, as the southwest region gradually enters the wet season, silicon enterprises open more furnaces. In the direction of Yunnan, the starting load of Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants increases; in the direction of Sichuan, the enthusiasm of silicon plants to open furnaces increases greatly; in the direction of Xinjiang, the production problems caused by the shortage of silica and the factors of power supply equipment are basically solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

The operating rate of silicon enterprises has increased, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the supply of metal silicon has increased. However, the demand of downstream consumers has not increased at the same time, and the overall bargaining power of silicon enterprises has shifted down.

On the one hand, the export market is still weak in June, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; on the other hand, the downstream demand in the domestic market is relatively picking up, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the expectation of raw materials is short, the raw materials procurement is more cautious, mainly on demand, and the raw materials inventory is low.

Three downstream demand poor raw material procurement cautious

1. Polysilicon

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic polysilicon price in June continued the downturn since April, with the bottom low operating mainly.

It is reported that the domestic polysilicon output in May was 32000 tons, a decline of more than 10% on a month on month basis. In June, there were still more than five polysilicon manufacturers in China, including Xinjiang Daquan, Dongfang hope, new special energy, Sichuan Yongxiang, etc. Although domestic polysilicon manufacturers cut production and stop production, the price of imported silicon materials has been innovatively low, which has a great impact on the domestic market price.

On the one hand, the installation of demand end and global terminal is blocked, and the overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, which causes the operation rate of domestic component manufacturers to be lowered one after another, which has a great impact on domestic polysilicon demand; on the other hand, the polysilicon import volume in April and may has always been at a low level, according to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis, down 34% on a year-on-year basis. Although the import volume at the import end moved down, the price of polysilicon imported materials continued to decline at the beginning of June, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton in the first week of June, which had a great impact on the domestic market price.

It is expected that in June, the operating rate and output of domestic polysilicon will move down, which is bad for the demand of raw metal silicon.

2. Organosilicon DMC

According to the data of business agency, after the return of the year, the price of organosilicon DMC fell sharply, and the low-level operation was mainly from April to May.

At the end of May, the market of organosilicon DMC opened, and the demand for organosilicon DMC improved in June. On the one hand, based on the positive replenishment of downstream, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is small. On the other hand, some factories have plans to cut production and stop repairing, and the market is expected to be better. (see the figure below for the equipment of some manufacturers)

Name of enterprise date price (yuan / ton including tax) commencement of equipment

On June 10, 17100 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was in normal operation

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. on June 10, 16500 yuan / ton, normal operation of the plant

Zhejiang Hesheng group on June 10, 17000 yuan / ton normal operation

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng will not receive the single unit temporarily on June 10, in the process of shutdown and maintenance

Shandong Jinling group will not make an offer temporarily on June 10. There is a maintenance plan this week

Hubei Xingfa group does not offer the equipment for normal operation temporarily on June 10

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily not submitting the offer for maintenance on June 10

Shandong Dongyue Group will not offer a set of equipment maintenance on June 10

The price rise of downstream organosilicon DMC is mainly due to the increase of shutdown and maintenance of manufacturers, the improvement of demand and supply factors.

However, at present, organosilicon, especially some monomer plants, based on the factors of supply chain management, raw material procurement is affected by the expected factors of buying up and not buying down, and is mainly operated cautiously. The stock of raw materials is not large. At present, consumption stock and a small amount of stock replenishment procurement are mainly based on demand. In short term, the demand for raw metal silicon is not significantly enlarged, and the benefits are not outstanding.

3. Aluminum alloy

Recently, the inventory of aluminum industry chain has been significantly reduced. As of June 4, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 46000 tons to 847000 tons compared with that of last Monday (the social inventory of aluminum ingots on May 21 was 964000 tons). It is reported that the consumption of domestic profile and aluminum foil plate is good, and the consumption of aluminum plate, strip and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable is general, but the export is not optimistic. In May 2020, China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials were 382900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%.

The operation rate of domestic aluminum alloy is affected by the improvement of terminal automobile consumption, and the operation rate is relatively high. According to the data of China Travel Federation, the retail sales of major manufacturers in May reached an average of 49000 vehicles per day, an increase of 12% on a month on month basis compared with April, and the year-on-year data basically matched the same period last year.

However, with the opening of the profit window of aluminum ingot import, the imported aluminum alloy may occupy the domestic aluminum alloy Market in the later stage. It is expected that the consumption of silicon metal for aluminum alloy will be weakened after June.

Future forecast

The metal silicon purchased under rigid demand is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. With the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity has been released, while the downstream consumption is not likely to expand synchronously. It is expected that in the near future, the metal silicon will be mainly operated in the air, and in the later stage, the environmental policy factors and the impact of the average cost of social production on the supply side will be focused.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene on May 31 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton); the price of pure benzene on Sunday (June 7) was 3550-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3660 yuan / ton), 1.67% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of pure benzene rose slightly. Crude oil and outer plate have strong support for pure benzene. Port inventory rose in the week, but the increase decreased.

On Friday (June 5), South Korea imported 429.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 31.33 US dollars / ton, up 7.87% from May 29; East China imported 435 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 28 US dollars / ton, up 6.88% from May 29.

Crude oil rose in a volatile week. It is said that OPEC + meeting will be held in advance in the week, and the market is bullish. Thursday’s meeting was not called in advance, but the atmosphere was still good. Brent rose $6.62, or 19.26%, this week from May 29, while WTI rose $3.96, or 11.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 38.59% and WTI by 34.51%

This week, the market price of styrene rose first and then declined slightly, with the overall increase. On June 5, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 5583.33 yuan / ton, up 166.66 yuan / ton or 3.08% from last week.

This week, aniline was stable as a whole, and individual enterprises cut prices for shipment. On June 5, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500-4820 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Next week, with the OPEC meeting, the oil price will rise as a whole. The resumption of work and production in foreign countries has been promoted, and the external price is firm. It is expected that the pure benzene will run stronger next week.

In May, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose first and then stabilized. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of the month was 11475 yuan / ton, and the price of the aggregate MDI at the end of the month was 12350 yuan / ton, up 7.63% in the month, down 9.36% compared with the same period last year.

Product: the average load on the supply side is low this month. Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman devices are under maintenance. The devices in Ryanair factory are still in shutdown state. The load of kostron and Chongqing BASF devices has slightly increased, but the market supply is limited. At the end of the month, the monthly listing prices of major factories are mainly rising, with an increase of about 500 yuan / ton, boosting the market price..

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: in the first ten days of the month, driven by the sharp increase in crude oil and pure benzene gold plate, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province rose. Downstream factory replenishment after the festival, refining good delivery, can sell less. In addition, the hydrogenation benzene is driven by crude benzene, rising to 3400 yuan / ton, supporting the pure benzene in Shandong at 3400-3450 yuan / ton, which is hard to find at a low price. In the middle of June, driven by Sinopec’s rise of 150 yuan / ton, Shandong refining pure benzene rose. However, the downstream is in conflict with the high price of pure benzene, and the delivery from the refineries is poor, and the market focus in Shandong has dropped to 3400-3450 yuan / ton. Crude oil rose sharply in the next month, stimulating the market, and the price of refining rose to 3600-3700 yuan / ton. However, the downstream is in conflict with the high price, the delivery of local refining is poor, and the transaction is mostly concentrated at the low end.

In terms of aniline, the domestic aniline market fell slightly in the month. As of May 29, the main negotiated price in East China market is 4600-4800 yuan / ton for acceptance. The mainstream negotiation price in Shandong market refers to 4400 yuan / ton spot exchange and 4490 yuan / ton acceptance.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

The suppliers’ attitude toward the market is expected to be the same, the supply may be more tense than that in May, and the market quotation will rise slightly. MDI analysts predict that the market will be strong before the middle of next month, but the market price may be difficult to maintain with the gradual resumption of Shanghai overhauled devices. However, Wanhua Yantai device is reported to have a maintenance plan in the middle and late of June, so it is necessary to pay attention to the dynamic changes of the market at any time.

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 4100 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 43.84% year on year.

The domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new plant is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, the first line of fuhaichuang plant is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, and the operation of Qilu Petrochemical plant is stable , Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, domestic p-xylene market price trend on Friday. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. This week, the external price trend of PX rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 485-487 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 505-507 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the rising price of international crude oil, the external price of PX rose this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported , the closing price rise of PX external market has a certain positive impact on the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market price rose this week, with main contract settlement price at 37.41 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil futures market price rising, main contract settlement price at 39.99 US dollars / barrel, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil also reached their highs in nearly three months, mainly driven by the expected warming of OPEC + extended production reduction agreement and economic recovery sentiment in the United States and Europe, driven by raw materials Favorable support effect, domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The price trend of PTA Market in the downstream of this week is rising. As of the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China was negotiated at 3650-3750 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry is 86%, and the rising crude oil price has driven the price of PTA market to rise. Up to now, PTA inventory has risen to a high near 3.55 million tons. According to the calculation of the existing capacity, the PTA operating rate is nearly 10% lower than the polyester operating rate, so the market can be basically balanced. Compared with the current PTA industry’s 86% operating load, polyester operation is obviously insufficient. Although the demand side of the downstream terminal has improved, after the middle of May, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly, and the market entered the traditional off-season. The order performance is not stable, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly cautious. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of the loom load reduction will not be ruled out in the later period. The substantial recovery still needs to be observed, and the short-term PTA stock accumulation situation is difficult to change. However, the price rise of downstream PTA market brings some good support to PX market, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is not good. For the upstream PX on-demand procurement, the PX market price trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the trend of crude oil price continues to rise in the near future, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises remains around 60%, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will remain around 4100 yuan / ton next week.