1、 Price trend

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers increased from 2402.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2420.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 17.50 yuan / ton or 0.73%, and a decrease of 20.00% compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, calcium carbide market rose slightly this week, and the carbide commodity index on July 20 was 63.41.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide from ovicanon at the end of this week was 2450 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia and China Union was 2540 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 70 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia was 2300 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2300-2500 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2300 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 560 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 580 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of upstream raw materials and the general cost support have a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market prices, PVC factory prices fell slightly this week. The price of PVC dropped from 6532.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6510.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.34%, but a decrease of 3.30% compared with the same period last year. This week, the PVC price fell slightly, the market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide was also general. Overall, the PVC market this week had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide. However, the supply of calcium carbide is insufficient in the near future, and the procurement is tight.

3、 Future forecast

In late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has declined, the decline is limited. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, and the calcium carbide production capacity is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is relatively tight. The later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late July.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 5125 yuan / ton, which was 0.73% lower than the price of 5162.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 14.11% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly. The situation of phthalic anhydride market was general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride was stable. The poor downstream demand led to a small decline of phthalic anhydride price. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started normal operation, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was normal. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchased on demand, and the market price of phthalic anhydride decreased slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China declined slightly, and the high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 5000-5200 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene process was 4800-5000 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 5000-5200 yuan / ton, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride was still in the market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream raw material o-benzene is temporarily stable. Sinopec’s implementation price for domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product is 4400 yuan / ton in East China and 4500 yuan / ton in North China. The import price of phthalic anhydride in port area fluctuates and keeps stable. The recent high level of port orthobenzene inventory and the external quotation of o-benzene fluctuate and adjust. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The actual price is discussed in detail The trend of Georgia is stable, and the decline of phthalic anhydride market price is limited.

As of the end of the week, the domestic DOP market price was 7033.33 yuan / ton, down 1.87% this week. Recently, the domestic plasticizer industry demand is not good, the price of isooctyl alcohol is lower, and the DOP market price is declining. The market of plasticizer industry fell down, DOP market quotation was 7000-7200 yuan / T, plasticizer transaction was limited in the market, and the downstream market was down, which was a negative impact on domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the trend of phthalic anhydride market declined.

In recent years, crude oil price mainly fluctuates, and the price trend of raw material o-benzene is temporarily stable. In addition, the transaction situation of plasticizer is general, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and lower in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s comprehensive market price is 13766.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic PC market is running weakly and stably with a narrow range of fluctuation. The industry is cautious and wait-and-see. The downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm is general. Therefore, more discussions are given priority to.

The domestic PC market is light and wait-and-see operation. Domestic PC manufacturers have strong willingness to stand up for price, and the downstream demand is difficult to boost. The number of actual transactions is limited, raw materials are weak and falling, and the cost is lack of good support. At present, the reference range of PC prices in East China is 13800-14300 yuan / ton, Luxi Chemical 13000 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan is 13500 yuan / ton, Shanghai Kesi is 14800 yuan / ton, and Lotte chemical is 12350 yuan / ton.

The upstream bisphenol A was in a downward trend, with negative atmosphere and low negotiation focus. The reference price in East China market was 9000-9300 yuan / T, and the demand was light.

On July 13, the chemical index was 664, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 34.65% from the highest point of 1016 (2012-03-13), and increased by 11.04% from the lowest point of 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PC analysts of business agency think: it is expected that the PC market will maintain a weak and stable operation in the short term, and the demand will be weak and difficult to boost. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory price of octanol in Shandong decreased from 7516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7283.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.10%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.46% compared with the same period of last year. Overall, octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index of 53.55 on July 10.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province fell this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7350 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 720 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 300 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol was 7350 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was lower than that at the beginning of the week 200 yuan / ton.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 6714.55 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6891.91 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.64%, and a decrease of 15.60% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market price rise, affected by the supply and demand side, has a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price fell this week. DOP quotation fell from 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.68%. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement declined, octanol demand was general, and the decline of DOP price had a negative impact on octanol market. After the market operators more watch the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of July, the market trend of octanol in Shandong was mainly fluctuating and falling. Although the upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support was weak, the downstream DOP market began to fall, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. Octanol analysts from the business agency believe that: in mid July, the octanol market in Shandong Province may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the mainstream domestic styrene price rose first and then decreased slightly this week, slightly higher than last Friday. On Friday (July 3), the price of sample enterprises of the business agency was 5366.67 yuan / ton, and this Friday (July 10) was 5400 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.62. The price was 39.78% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the styrene market price rose first and then decreased slightly, slightly higher than last Friday. On July 6, East China styrene closed at 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and on July 10, it was 5350-5450 yuan / ton, down by 50 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang export price. On July 6, South China styrene closed at 5600-5650 yuan / ton, and on July 10, 5550-5600 yuan / ton, falling by 50 yuan / ton, and the above-mentioned factories delivered to the price. In general, styrene showed a horizontal finishing this week, the overall situation of a small decline.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil remained stable during the week, and the price of pure benzene rose slightly at the beginning of the week. Due to the sharp rise in the stock market, the spot price on the spot was firm. However, due to no substantial improvement in demand, the market trading atmosphere turned to be cautious and wait-and-see, and the price stabilized in the later stage. As of Friday (July 10), the mainstream quotation of pure benzene was 3150.00 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.96% from 3120.00 yuan / ton on Friday (July 3).

In terms of ethylene, due to the maintenance of ethylene plants in Asia, the supply of ethylene increased, and the price dropped significantly. As of Friday (July 10), the mainstream ethylene quotation was 763.50 yuan / ton, down 21.75 yuan / ton or 2.77% from 785.25 yuan / ton on Friday (July 3).

In terms of inventory, the total inventory in East China decreased slightly this week. The total inventory in East China this week was 370200 tons, down 3.25% from 382600 tons last week. But inventories are still high. In the short term, the oversupply has not changed. In terms of domestic styrene, styrene was restarted and increased in July, some enterprises’ inventory increased slightly, and the overall output was basically the same as last week. The average domestic styrene operating rate was 82.2% last week and 81.99% this week, down 0.21%.

On the downstream side, the overall steady decline of styrene downstream this week, still maintain considerable production and marketing profits. In the PS market, as of Friday (July 10), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 8066.67 yuan / ton, down 33.33 yuan / ton or 0.41% from 8100.00 yuan / ton on Friday (July 3).

In the EPS market, as of Friday (July 10), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 8100.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday (July 3). The supply of EPS market in East China and South China is still tight. Some factories restrict orders. The supply in the northern market has eased slightly. Some traders replenish goods across regions. Some downstream companies enter the off-season season. In addition, the cost support is insufficient. Downstream businesses are cautious in buying, and the overall trading remains rigid.

In ABS market, as of Friday (July 5), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday (July 3). In July, the off-season of home appliance production has entered, and the operating rate of some home appliance factories has decreased compared with that of last month, and the demand for ABS procurement has decreased, while the supply side has accumulated inventory. Although air conditioning decreased by 3.57% month on month in July, it increased by 30.65% year-on-year, and the demand was still supported.

3、 Future prospects

In July, the import volume of styrene decreased on a month on month basis, but the overall supply was still surplus. The price of pure benzene and ethylene in the upstream weakened, the support for styrene weakened, and the demand for styrene from downstream EPS weakened, mainly to maintain rigid demand. Styrene spot sales pressure is still large, it is expected that styrene will be mainly horizontal finishing next week. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Price trend

This week, PVC first fell and then rose. The weekend spot market was driven by the rise of futures and the price rose. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the domestic mainstream average price of PVC on July 3 was 6257.5 yuan / ton, up 0.12% compared with the previous day, and decreased by 7.64% compared with the same period last year. The maximum amplitude in the period is 17.09%

2、 Market analysis

On July 3, PVC market stopped falling and turned to rise. Due to the sharp rise of futures and the strength of the market, PVC spot market followed closely. This week, the PVC market is weak, futures shocks, the spot market is also in a state of callback. At this stage, it is the traditional off-season, some downstream factories are operating with reduced load, limited receiving capacity, and just in demand procurement is given priority to, and the consignors are offering profits to ship goods. The PVC market is stagnant. However, on July 2, the sharp rise of futures broke the deadlock, the mainstream prices in different regions rose to varying degrees, the focus shifted upward, and the enterprises’ shipment was fair. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the enthusiasm of market participants increased. At present, the social inventory continues to be de stocked, some enterprises are still in the state of maintenance, the supply side still has some favorable support, the enterprise shipment is normal, the manufacturer’s confidence in supporting prices has been enhanced, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. On the whole, the fundamentals have not changed much, and the relationship between supply and demand is relatively stable.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 3, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6100-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type tourmaline in Changzhou is around 6200-6260 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6300-6380 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is around 6400-6450 yuan / ton, which can be negotiated.

In terms of futures, PVC 2009 contracts on the 2nd day were lower and higher, closing at 6290 yuan / T, + 125 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume 214774 hands, + 120148 hands; 190668 positions, + 14887 hands, basis difference of – 50 yuan, – 130 yuan; 9-1 price difference of 180 yuan, + 15 yuan. The opening price of V2009 contract on March 3 was 6275, the highest price was 6380, the lowest price was 6260, and the closing price was 6335, + 115, up 1.85%.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises this week was more than 70%. Most of the maintenance enterprises have recovered and their output has increased to a certain extent. After July, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased. Recently, some enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Xinjiang Zhongtai, Zhonggu mining, Zhongyan Jilantai, Inner Mongolia Yili, etc., have maintenance plans. Some enterprises’ maintenance plans have been postponed to August. Social inventory continues to decline, but the speed slows down From the point of view, the supply tends to rise in a stable way, but it is gradually weakening.

In terms of demand, at present, the terminal operating rate is at a slightly higher level in the year, and the manufacturing market is still recovering. At present, it is in the off-season, and there is more precipitation in the plum rain season. The real estate industry is affected to a certain extent. However, the start-up of enterprises such as pipes and profiles is still at a high level, and other enterprises are at a medium and low level, and exports continue to be sluggish. On the whole, the performance of the demand side is fair, but it is difficult to drive the market to rise sharply in the off-season.

On the 2nd, international oil prices rose, with wti08 contract up $0.83/barrel at 40.65 and Brent 09 contract by 1.11/barrel at 43.14. Recently, the external price of ethylene showed an upward trend. On the 2nd, the European ethylene market rose, with FD northwest Europe offering 738-747 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe offering 724-732 US dollars / ton, up 33 US dollars / ton. Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 845-855 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 785-795 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 218-236 U.S. dollars / ton; generally speaking, the recent European and American ethylene market is mainly up, the overall ethylene market demand is good, the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the PVC analysts of the business agency, at present, the overall inventory of PVC continues to be removed, the maintenance enterprises are reduced, and there are still some advantages. The demand side is in the traditional off-season, while the support is still in place, and the trading atmosphere is getting better. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will be more volatile, with the possibility of continued rise, but the space is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices rose sharply in June. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 1 was 9916 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 10400 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.87%.

On June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 52.31, down 0.33 points from yesterday, 47.69% from 100.00 points (2017-03-02), and 32.77% higher than the lowest 39.40 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to March 1, 2017 to now)

2、 Market analysis

As of June 30, baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was listed at 11000 yuan / ton, and the settlement price was 10750 yuan / ton. The 450000 tons / year plant was normally started and accepted. Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year unit normal start-up, acceptance delivery. Fujian Shenyuan caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10900 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / T, and the factory has a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed.

The raw material pure benzene market rose to fall in June. In the first week, the price of domestic pure benzene rose slightly. Crude oil and external disk have strong support for pure benzene. In the second week, Sinopec adjusted the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, narrowing the price difference between internal and external markets, and strengthening the support at the bottom of the market. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a downward trend. The port inventory is high, the speed of delivery is slow, and the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Shandong refining enterprises inventory increase, driving prices continue to fall.

In June, the trend of downstream PA6 changed from strong to weak. In the first half of the month, the domestic market of PA6 was relatively strong, and the spot price of each brand increased to a certain extent. The upstream caprolactam inventory is low and the supply is still tight, which strongly supports the cost side of PA6. The demand of downstream slicing plant is general, and the purchase strategy of just need is mainly. The performance of PA6 in the second half of the month was average, and the business offer was deadlocked, and the shipment situation declined. The domestic operating rate is fair. Although the increase of overseas plasticizer consumption demand is good for domestic enterprises to remove inventory, the recent follow-up of orders from downstream factories is slow, and the reaction to high price goods is general, and the stock preparation is mainly on bargain hunting.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the raw material prices continue to rise in early June, caprolactam supply is tight. The downstream demand for caprolactam increased. In the later stage, raw materials and terminal markets fell together, the cost support weakened, and the downstream demand was weak, which led to the poor market of caprolactam. It is expected that caprolactam market will consolidate in the future, and the market may go down again.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the overall trend of domestic PE spot market showed a steady upward trend in the second half of June (June 15-29), among which LDPE rose the most, with the increase of 3.58% in the second half of June. At present, although it is in the traditional off-season of demand, due to the large number of maintenance of petrochemical units, the market supply is greatly reduced, which brings some support to some areas.

Average price range of regional varieties and specifications on June 15 to June 29

East China LLDPE 7042 6766.67 yuan / ton 6933.33 yuan / ton + 2.46%

East China LDPE 2426h 8025.00 yuan / ton 8312.50 yuan / ton + 3.58%

In East China, HDPE 5000S 7616.67 yuan / ton: 7783.33 yuan / ton + 2.19%

In late June, the prices of the three varieties in the PE spot market were mainly rising. Most petrochemical enterprises have raised their ex factory prices to boost the market mentality. From June 15 to 17, international crude oil rose for three consecutive days, which also brought benefits to the market. At present, it is in the centralized maintenance stage of petrochemical enterprises, and the market supply has decreased, so the market price is relatively firm. However, due to the traditional off-season sales, the overall demand of downstream users is less, and more replenishment is required, so the market transaction atmosphere is general. Business mentality is good, more with the market, small push up. On June 22, plastic futures rose in shock, which benefited the spot market, and PE saw the rise again. Petrochemical enterprises raised the ex factory price for several consecutive days, with the increase range of 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the petrochemical inventory has accumulated, which is difficult to consume in the short term. However, due to the high level of petrochemical plant maintenance, the impact on the market is not significant, and the price is still strong.

At present, the impact of social and public health events on the domestic market is limited. The downstream gradually returns to work and production. The operating rate is significantly higher than that in the previous period, and the market demand shows signs of warming. And currently in the maintenance peak season, the market supply is greatly reduced, and the supply is relatively tight, which brings benefits to the market. However, with the end of the maintenance season, the domestic market supply increased significantly, and the market supply and demand situation is not optimistic. It is expected that the future market will rise first and then fall.

According to the data, the natural rubber commodity index on June 29 was 29.60, down 0.71 points compared with yesterday, 70.40% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 8.50% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in the first half of 2020

From the beginning of January to June of 2020, the overall market of natural rubber showed a downward trend and then a small upward trend. The price of natural rubber at the end of March and early April was a periodic bottom. In May, the Tianjiao Jedi rebounded and fluctuated upward. In June, the natural rubber continued the upward trend of last month and first rose to the near-term highest point. Subsequently, due to insufficient demand support, the price turned downward, and then there was a certain degree of shock rebound. According to the natural rubber (bid 1) data in East China monitored by the business agency, in June, the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk market was about 10120 yuan / ton on the 1st day and 10078 yuan / ton on the 30th day, up 0.42% so far this month. Among them, the price of 10370 yuan / ton on the 5th day was the highest point in recent two months, and 9980 yuan / ton on the 29th was the lowest price of this month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 3.76%. Generally speaking, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of Baodao whole milk was 10370 yuan / ton, which was the highest in recent two months, The price of natural rubber fluctuated between 10100-10400 yuan / ton. On the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the sharp drop of nearly 300 points in Shanghai rubber, the spot price of natural rubber was adjusted, and the mainstream price of domestic whole milk broke through 10000 yuan again. On the last trading day of this month, it rose slightly and returned to more than 10000 yuan.

So far this year, NR has highlighted several aspects of its “difference”:

First, due to the globalization of the epidemic situation since 2020, it is inevitable that the demand for natural rubber at home and abroad will be greatly reduced. Crude oil will rebound after a continuous drop. As a natural rubber that is easily affected by crude oil, with the downward process of crude oil, natural rubber experienced a breakthrough of 10000 yuan in the first half of the year, and then experienced a slow rebound for three months. So far, the market is weak and weak.

Second, at the same time, crude oil fell sharply, and butadiene went down sharply. As a result, the price of alternative rubber was low, and some demand of tire manufacturers turned to the market of substitute rubber. The already poor demand of Tianjiao was replaced by a part.

Third, the demand is not good, and the operating rate of tire factories will be affected. The data shows that the current operating rate of domestic tire factories is about 60-70%, which is the highest operating data so far this year. The statistics of automobile sales data have only rebounded since May, but only on a month on month basis, which is still an inevitable decline on a year-on-year basis.

Fourth, the year 2020 is different. It is doomed that the opening of new rubber will be delayed due to weather disasters and pest disasters. China’s traditional cutting season has come, but there is no wait for the domestic production to increase significantly. However, the production of Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries will not be listed until the end of this month. There is no doubt that the inventory of natural rubber will continue to increase, especially in Qingdao free trade zone Inventory of.

Fifthly, the difference of natural rubber in 2020 is also reflected in the regional differences in domestic supply. As early as mid May, the shortage of natural rubber in Yunnan, especially in Banna, has resulted in the continuous firmness of rubber prices. According to local traders, the delay in the listing of new rubber this year and the fact that some import indexes have not been released in previous years have resulted in the shortage of local supplies At the end of last month and in the middle of this month, many articles of our press had analyzed the regional differences in the domestic natural rubber market in detail. Up to the end of June and the beginning of July, this situation still existed, and the regional transmission of goods sources also appeared.

Sixth, the existence of trade friction. On June 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the preliminary findings of the fourth review on anti-dumping of passenger car and light truck tires against China. Two compulsory responding enterprises obtained 76.46% of the dumping duty rate for refusing to participate in the investigation, and seven enterprises received zero tax rate. On the 26th and 27th of last month, the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India issued a series of announcements to initiate anti-dumping investigations on China’s nitrile rubber and rubber additive px-13. Although trade frictions are not rare, this year’s difficult situation and the frequent occurrence of such incidents make the export situation even more severe.

To sum up, the natural rubber situation in 2020 is difficult. With regard to the future market, the analysis of the business agency believes that the recent focus is that Thailand’s new rubber has begun to be listed in large quantities, while the domestic natural rubber inventory is still high and facing a substantial increase. However, the downstream demand rebounds slowly, the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent, and the price will be subject to certain pressure. Due to the low level of rubber every day, there is little room for decline; Yunnan, especially in Banna, is in short supply, which will form a certain support for prices, especially local prices. It is expected that the demand of new infrastructure will be boosted. The serious epidemic situation in foreign countries and the local rebound of domestic situation will inevitably cause emotional worries. Long and short will affect the market comprehensively. It is expected that the volatility trend of Tianjiao will continue in the future. We should guard against the impact of a large number of new rubber listed on the price.

1、 Price trend

The market continued to decline in June. According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on June 28 was 4866.67 yuan / ton, 1.68% lower than that on June 16, 6.41% lower than 5200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1), and 5.8% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the center of gravity of phosphoric acid continued to move downward. The sharp decline of phosphoric acid in this month is mainly due to the lower raw material yellow phosphorus and bad cost. With the rapid decline of yellow phosphorus, the price of thermal process phosphoric acid has dropped significantly, and the performance is relatively mild near the end of the month, and the trend tends to be stable; in terms of demand, the follow-up is insufficient, the export is still weak, and the phosphoric acid enterprises have certain difficulties in shipping. With the increase of controllable price space, phosphoric acid enterprises continue to reduce prices for sales. In recent years, the price of wet process phosphoric acid has not been greatly reduced, the manufacturers’ inventory is not high, and the shipment is still good. Generally speaking, the downstream procurement of phosphoric acid market is relatively cautious, the actual transaction atmosphere is not high, and the business attitude of buying up and not falling, the market entrants are lack of confidence, and the cost side negative factors are still exist, so the trend of phosphoric acid is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4866.67 yuan / ton, and the price in Sichuan was 4500-5100 yuan / ton, which continued to decline; the quotation in Hubei was 4800 yuan / ton, which was weak and stable; the quotation in Tianjin was 5200 yuan / ton, which continued to decline; the price in Beijing was 4900 yuan / ton, which was weak and stable; the price in Yunnan was 4800 yuan / ton, which was weak and stable The western region quoted 4450 yuan / ton, down sharply.

The raw material phosphate ore market is currently in the off-season. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore market was 386 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price a week ago; compared with the price half a month ago (15th), the average price was reduced by 7 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.69%. Business Club phosphate ore analysts believe that at present, phosphate rock and its direct downstream market as a whole is weak, the downstream demand performance is weak, support is insufficient. It is expected that most of the phosphate rock will be operated in a weak position in the near future, and it is not ruled out that the market price in some areas will be reduced by a narrow margin.

The market price of yellow phosphorus was lowered. Yunnan Province entered the wet season in June. After the implementation of the electricity price in the wet season, the enterprise cost went down and the market price fell to a certain extent. At present, the yellow phosphorus market starts to rise slightly, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. At present, the yellow phosphorus Market in Yunnan is light, and the market quotation is about 14000-14300 yuan / ton. The market situation is not good, the price is seriously depressed, and many yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer. Guizhou yellow phosphorus market is mainly operated at a low level, and the current mainstream quotation is about 14300 yuan / ton. The downstream demand market is general, and manufacturers mainly take enough as needed. The yellow phosphorus Market in Sichuan is weak and stable. At present, the quotation in Sichuan is about 15000-14200 yuan / ton. Downstream manufacturers take whatever they want, and the spot sales are not so good.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to decrease in wet season, and the negative factors are still existing. The price of phosphoric acid is easy to fall but difficult to rise, and it is necessary to pay attention to the change of cost.