Ethylene oxide has been consolidated for more than two months, but only in Northeast China is stable and small. The national ex factory price including tax ranges from 7200 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, of which the factory tax inclusive price in mainstream East China is 7200 yuan / ton.

Ethylene market weak downward, the decline is very obvious, as of today (30), ethylene CFR Northeast Asia price is 775.00 US dollars / ton. The supply of ethylene glycol is loose, the fundamentals are weak, the surfactant market is mainly sorted out, and the ethanolamine supply is sufficient to meet the weak demand. The main downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market is declining, and the peak season of gold, silver and ten is not fully prosperous. At present, the trend of monomer supply exceeding demand is hard to shake, the fundamentals are weak and the market atmosphere is strong. The tight supply of ethylene oxide continues, and the decrease of supply forms a certain support for the market, but under the influence of negative factors, the price has entered a dilemma.

We should pay close attention to the change of supply and demand in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

As of October 28, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 13833.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Wednesday, 6.74% lower than the beginning of the month, 6.74% lower than the beginning of the month, and 20.19% lower than the beginning of the year, according to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the R22 market of refrigerant market has been running weakly and steadily, and the price has dropped steadily. Downstream major air conditioning manufacturers started low, demand was scarce, foaming agent demand decreased, orders were not many, the demand side is difficult to boost the market, raw material surface hydrofluoric acid and chloroform industry trend is stable, there is no good signal, although the end of the year quota reduction, but the market return to buyer led, R22 short-term market weakness is still. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of October 28, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of refrigerant R22 market were about 12500-16500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was low.

In terms of raw materials, on October 28, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory prices of domestic manufacturers remained stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the on-site supply was normal, which was affected by the stable price of fluorite. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will remain low in the future.

Trichloromethane: at present, the domestic chloroform market is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of the downstream market is flat, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards chloroform. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the burden and reduce the pressure. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the support of the raw material end is insufficient, the downstream demand is sluggish, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and the R22 market is running weakly and steadily, and the price is falling steadily. It is expected that refrigerant R22 will continue low consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the high price of raw materials, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has risen steadily. As of October 27, the average price in Shandong was about 3100 yuan / ton, up 1.64% compared with the same period last week and 19.23% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

440000 T / A in Jinling, Shandong Province

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Low load of 400000 tons / year in Luxi Chemical Industry

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 30%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 30%

Jiangsu Liwen: 160000 tons / year

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua: 300000 tons / year: 50%

At present, the price of dichloromethane in China has risen to a high level, and the downstream market has not accepted it very well. As the market trading activity has declined, with the continuous increase of raw material liquid chlorine, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high, and the enterprises are forced to follow the increase. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3100-3140 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3550 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3050 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, methanol market is running at a high level with low market inventory. Downstream enterprises and traders are active in purchasing and operating strongly in a short period of time. At present, the liquid chlorine market is affected by the maintenance plan of main production enterprises, and the downstream and traders’ intention to prepare goods increases, and the market transaction is active, and the price of liquid chlorine is firm and upward. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the refrigerant market is weak and stable, the domestic market is weak, the transaction environment continues to be depressed, traders are cautious in taking goods, and the market is expected to weaken in the short term; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there is insufficient support for dichloromethane.

Analysts of methane chloride data from business society believe that at present, domestic dichloromethane is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and they hold a wait-and-see attitude towards dichloromethane. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the burden and reduce pressure, and it is expected that the price of dichloromethane will remain stable in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 26, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13500 yuan / ton, which was flat on the previous day, up 2.53% month on month and 11.96% lower than that at the beginning of the year.

2、 Market analysis

On October 26, the salicylic acid market was stable temporarily, and the market was relatively stable. In October, the salicylic acid market has improved, the demand has gradually rebounded, and after the early price reduction and promotion, the shipment situation has improved. However, the overseas market is still uncertain, and the export has not changed significantly compared with the previous one, which is relatively stable. The purchase volume is not large, the manufacturer’s shipment is stable, and the sales pressure is not great. The enthusiasm of traders to take goods is improved, and the price is firm. As of October 26, the industrial price of salicylic acid is mostly in the range of 10000-15000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable; the price of pharmaceutical grade is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable; the price of sublimation level is mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

Last week, the phenol market was weak, and the market continued to decline. The phenol market has been in a stalemate. When the phenol market went up in the early stage, most downstream users had a wait-and-see view on the later stage of the market, but it was also the case. In the current market of 5450 yuan / ton in East China, the terminal was still mainly in demand, and the sentiment of large quantity replenishment was not high, and there was also pressure on the shipholders. At present, the market price was under the pressure of cost, and the profit making space was not large, and the trading was slightly deadlocked. The domestic phenol Market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the reference price of phenol in East China is predicted to be about 5500 yuan / T.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that: in October, salicylic acid market is warming up, demand is gradually rising, and after the early price reduction and promotion, the shipment situation is better, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the salicylic acid price trend is expected to be relatively strong in the short term.

On the 22nd, the domestic phenol market continued to be weak, and there were still traders making profits and actively shipping on the floor. The downstream just needed to follow up and actively replenish, and the willingness to store goods needs to be released. There is still pressure on shippers to ship goods. There is a little profit yield when the market goes with the market, but there is too much room for profit making under the pressure of cost. Looking back this year, the phenol market has been bumping forward in the deadlock. Seeing that gold, silver and ten have passed, most market people are under pressure.

At present, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plant is maintained within 80%, and the port supply will continue to be replenished next week. Under the unfavorable factors of Lihua Yiwei yuan phase II commissioning and Zhejiang Petrochemical phenol ketone plant restart, it is difficult to say that the market is optimistic in the later stage. The business association predicts that the domestic phenol market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the specific market sentiment still needs to be paid close attention to. Near the end of the month, although there are not many contract holders, the negative factors such as plant production and port supply are also in front of us. The business association predicts that the reference offer space of East China market is 5360-5550 yuan / ton.

The quotations of phenol in various markets in China yesterday were as follows:

Regional price rise and fall

East China 5500

5700 – 50 in Shandong Province

The surrounding area of Yanshan mountain is 5800 – 50

South China 5600 – 100

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on October 23 was 3867 yuan / ton, an increase of 67 yuan / ton or 1.75% compared with last week, according to business agency data.

On October 22, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3845 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton or 0.26% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of October 22, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1183800 tons, a decrease of 97200 tons or 7.59% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 26400 tons or 2.18% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang have slightly improved this week compared with last week. The average daily shipment of Zhangjiagang is about 7800 tons, and that of Taicang is 5900 tons.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 55%, down 3% from last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 88%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 600000 tons in Xinjiang Tianye was shut down for maintenance during the 11th Five Year Plan period. At present, the overhaul is coming to an end, and it is expected to restart feeding next week. The 300000 t / a syngas to ethylene glycol plant in western Guizhou was shut down at the beginning of this month to replace the catalyst, which is expected to resume operation in the near future.

3、 Analysis and prediction

In terms of demand, although the textile terminal is expected to be better due to the transfer of orders in the near future, due to the consumption of inventory in the short term, the production and sales of polyester end are flat, so there is little support for ethylene glycol. In terms of supply, domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level, and foreign imports have decreased. Due to the small arrival volume, although the shipment is not much, the port inventory is still falling continuously this week. It is expected that in the short term, it is still in the stock removal cycle, and the price of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product

2、 Market analysis

On October 21, the market of lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of October 21, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, with a half year cycle falling by 4.09% year-on-year. Recently, the market of lithium hydroxide has been running steadily, and the major lithium salt factory director has been mainly supplying overseas. The supply and demand of small and medium-sized enterprises is in the state of accumulation, and the price is stable under the support of cost.

Production data of lithium hydroxide: in September 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was around 873 tons, up 1.16% month on month and 34.31% year on year.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate price after the festival temporarily stable, may be good in the short term. According to the data of business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on October 20 was 39500 yuan / ton, which was 1.54% higher than that on September 20 (38900 yuan / ton). On October 20, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which was 0.68% higher than that on September 20 (43900 yuan / ton). At present, the demand growth of power market is obvious, the output is gradually rising, and the supply tension is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may be in a favorable state in the short term, but it is difficult for the price to rise in the long term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 20, 2020, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were butadiene (7.10%), DMF (4.57%) and sulfur (4.12%). There were 9 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were acetone (- 5.33%), isopropanol (- 1.60%) and potassium nitrate (- 1.20%). The average rise and fall was 0.34%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide Market is under pressure at present, but under the support of cost, it is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will run smoothly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the price of pure benzene this week stopped falling and rose. On October 11, the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3300 yuan / ton (average price was 3280 yuan / ton); this Sunday (October 18), the listed price of pure benzene was 3180-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3360 yuan / ton), with an increase of 2.44%.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the domestic pure benzene market was mainly driven by styrene, and the market trading atmosphere rose. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure capital twice this week, a total of 100 yuan / ton. The higher price of pure benzene stimulated the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the market transaction was active.

On the external side, on Friday (October 16), South Korea imported 419.5 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 19.17 US dollars / ton, or 4.79% compared with October 9; and East China imported 428.5 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 15.5 US dollars / ton, or 3.75% compared with October 9.

In terms of crude oil, Brent fell $0.305/barrel, or 0.73%, compared with October 9, and WTI rose 0.21/barrel, or 0.51%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 37.62% and WTI decreased by 32.34%.

Downstream: the domestic styrene price rose strongly this week, driving the pure benzene market to rise. On October 16, the price of styrene in Shandong was 6050 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 11.01%.

Aniline enterprise inventory is low, combined with the main contract and shipping, the spot supply is less, the price is rising continuously. On October 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6500-6600 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health events in Europe and the United States is tightening, and the market is worried about the limited demand for crude oil. Next week, oil prices may be under pressure.

It is expected that the price of styrene will continue to rise next week, and the positive will drive the pure benzene to continue to rise. But pure benzene inventory is still at a high level, short-term consumption is difficult to limit the rise.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (October 19): 1706.67 yuan / ton

On October 19, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.99%, compared with that on October 16. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. On the afternoon of 14, India’s RCF urea tender was launched. The total bidding volume was 3.6 million tons, and the lowest price was 279.25 CFR US dollars / ton on the east coast. The price was not significantly different from the domestic mainstream regional prices, forming a certain support for the domestic market.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 1710 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of some domestic rare earth market declined, heavy rare earth price fell back, light rare earth market price trend temporarily stabilized. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on October 16 was 357 points, which was the same as yesterday, 64.30% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 31.73% higher than 271 point, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 322000 yuan / ton, which was equal to 322000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 409000 yuan / ton, which was flat with 409000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 347000 yuan / ton, which was equal to 347000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 433000 yuan / ton, which was stable this week, and the price of praseodymium oxide was 322500 yuan / ton, This week the price trend is stable; the metal praseodymium price trend is stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic light rare earth industry is mainly due to the negative downstream procurement, strong wait-and-see attitude, reduced trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, some prices in the light rare earth market remain at a low level, and the price trend of other products is mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth is low, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level 。 In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on rare earth production and export, overseas demand has not improved, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has remained low in recent years.

This week, the price trend of domestic direct family declined slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.63 million yuan / ton, which was 0.31% lower this week; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.62 million yuan / ton, which was 1.62% lower this week. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the information of collection and storage is not accurate At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths. However, the downstream demand is not positive in recent years, and the market price of heavy rare earth continues to fall. In recent years, the market is general, heavy rare earth prices remain high, downstream demand has not significantly improved, heavy rare earth market prices slightly lower.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has declined compared with the previous period. The price of domestic rare earth parts fell this week.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has fallen down compared with the previous period. In addition, the downstream purchasing is not active and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to decline in the future.