1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on November 20 was 5016.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 1.35% month on month, 6.23% lower than the beginning of the year, and 5.94% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market has been running steadily with little change. The raw material yellow phosphorus price is high consolidation, the cost side support is strong, the phosphoric acid price is relatively firm, the industry is stable and wait and see the market, the price fluctuation is not big, but the demand side has not obvious good boost, there are few new orders, the short-term market is glued, with the implementation of low water price in the future market, as well as environmental protection factors, the phosphoric acid market may rise again under the strong support of cost. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 20, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5016.67 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, and the price was stable; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Tianjin, the price was 5 About 600 yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; the price in Jiangsu Province is about 4600 yuan / ton, which is slightly increased, but the price changes little in different places.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% Nov 20 5390-5400

Phosphoric acid content in Southwest China: 85% Nov 20 4900-4920

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

Yellow phosphorus, at present, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, yellow phosphorus Market Spot slightly tense. The raw material phosphate rock rose slightly, the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises increased, and the requirements of atmospheric monitoring and environmental protection in autumn and winter were met. Due to the environmental protection requirements, some yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas reduced production, stopped furnace and suspended the order receiving status, which made the spot of yellow phosphorus tight. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus still has a bullish expectation in the short term, but the increase is limited.

Phosphate rock, more than half of November, China’s domestic phosphate ore market rose slightly in the early days of the month, with Guizhou and Guangxi as the main regions to increase the price, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the overall stable operation of the market is given priority to. At present, the market mainly deals with old orders, while the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the new orders are limited. According to the phosphorus ore data division of the business society, the phosphorus ore market is mainly stable in the short term, and the overall fluctuation is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society believe that the current cost support is strong, the price of phosphoric acid is relatively firm, the operators are stable and wait-and-see market, the price fluctuation is not big, but there is no obvious positive boost in the demand side, the market is tight in the short term, the trend is mainly stable, and the cost side change should be paid attention to.

According to the statistics of the business agency, on November 19, the spot price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region ran smoothly, and the average market price of 32S polyester yarn was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on November 10. The yarn Market in Hangzhou, Suzhou and Jiaxing is generally good. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market situation was poor from March to May this year. Since May, it began to improve, and recently the market has declined. The production opening rate of the enterprise has basically reached 100%, and the product inventory is small. However, some enterprises have also reflected that due to the recent market downturn, the yarn price has dropped and the profit margin is low.

Yarn manufacturers started normal as a whole. Recently, yarn prices began to decline. Under the double influence of the end of the “double 11″ market and the aggravation of overseas epidemic situation, domestic and foreign orders decreased significantly. In the future market and the lack of downstream demand, yarn market is difficult to have a good market. Due to the later manufacturers to prepare goods for the new year, so the current good, is expected to maintain orders until the end of December.

The supply and demand side is not good. Some polyester factories in the upstream promote their sales, but the production and sales are not prosperous as a whole. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% – 150%, and some of the better factories are 170%. The overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days. The price of polyester staple fiber is 5800-5900 / T, slightly lower than the previous period.

In terms of the starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to about 91%. There are fewer orders and sales volume of the enterprise, and the inventory is more than one month. The enterprise has a production restriction plan. If the market continues to shrink, or some enterprises take measures to limit production, the situation is not optimistic. The order is close to one month, and the cloth product inventory is about one month. In the near future, grey cloth prices are in a downward trend, and it is expected that the market as a whole will remain weak before the Spring Festival.

Aftermarket forecast: foreign orders did not improve significantly, domestic market placed orders cautiously, still dominated by small orders, do domestic spot enterprises increase product inventory. The export market cannot recover in the short term, and the domestic market potential needs to be continuously released. Hope that at the end of this month, spring and summer fabrics will be placed in succession. However, due to the increase of uncertain factors in the market, the downstream garment enterprises have little confidence in the market. At present, the whole state of the textile industry chain seems to be very similar to that when it just returned to work at the beginning of the year. In the short term, the market is not very optimistic, and the yarn price may continue to fall in the later period.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

The domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable this week. According to the data of the business club, as of November 13, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, and increased by 6.45% compared with October 13. In recent years, the downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industries started relatively stable, while the leather industry started in general, while the pharmaceutical industry mainly purchased on demand. The overall demand remained stable and the market was stable.

For upstream caustic soda, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 13, the average price quoted by enterprises was 490 yuan / ton, which was 1.01% lower than that on November 1. The downstream purchasing demand was general, and there was a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda sorting would be weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price quoted by enterprises as of November 13 was 2966.67 yuan / ton , down 7.77% from November 1 Upstream sulfuric acid, the recent (11.01-11.13) Shandong sulfuric acid market rose, upstream sulfur market rose slightly, cost support is good, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, sulfuric acid supply is normal, the future market sulfuric acid factory price fluctuates slightly; upstream methanol, according to business and social monitoring data, as of November 13, the average price quoted by enterprises was 2110 yuan / ton, compared with November 1 It was up 12.08%.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45 th week (11.9-11.13) of 2020, there were 42 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector which rose month on month, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 19.6% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were propylene glycol (15.52%), bisphenol A (14.46%) and styrene (13.15%). There were 16 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were TDI (- 10.00%), sodium bicarbonate (- 7.89%) and dichloromethane (- 6.25%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.79%.

3、 Future forecast

Formic acid analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, raw material prices have been rising and falling, downstream demand has been basically stable, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the formic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Trend analysis

According to the data of business agency, the price of cobalt fell in November, and the market of cobalt Market weakened. As of November 16, the cobalt price was 267500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from 268666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1).

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the statistics of China mobile phone market, the total number of domestic mobile phone sales decreased by 0.261-2.21 billion in the year-on-year basis. In October, domestic mobile phone sales rose on a month on month basis, but fell sharply year-on-year. The demand for cobalt market recovered, but it was still not enough to support the rise of cobalt price.

Domestic new energy vehicle market

According to the statistical data of CAAC, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 167000 and 160000, respectively, up 69.7% and 104.5% year-on-year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 914000 and 901000, respectively, down 9.2% and 7.1% year-on-year. From July to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles broke the historical records of the month in April, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to rise in a single month, and the market of new energy vehicles recovered. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole year still fell sharply year on year, and the recovery of new energy vehicle market was not enough to support the recovery of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, believes that mobile phones rose month on month in October, new energy vehicle sales rose sharply, and cobalt market demand recovered. However, in the global market, affected by the epidemic situation, the sales of major mobile phones and new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States dropped sharply, and the overall demand of cobalt market declined. The recovery of domestic cobalt market demand is difficult to change the overall market trend of weak global cobalt market demand, and the rising motivation of cobalt price is insufficient.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market is up this week. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of November 13, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 6733.33 yuan / ton, up 7.45% compared with the beginning of the week and 20.24% higher than that on October 13. Manufacturers to implement early orders, spot supply is tight, the market is willing to rise, melamine prices go up.

At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 5900 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 6500 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, November 13, Shandong urea market rose. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that in the near future, the upstream urea price has risen slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, and the spot supply in the market is tight. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance for the specific trend.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market of cis-1,1-11-10 fell in the first ten days of November (11.1-11.10), with the price at 11060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 10640.00 yuan / ton as of November 10, with an overall decrease of 3.8%.

In the first ten days of November, the ex factory price of some domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and petrochemical manufacturers was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. As of November 10, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-butadiene of PetroChina Northeast sales company was implemented at 10700 yuan / ton. In November, the operating rate of domestic petrochemical CIS polybutadiene rubber plant did not change significantly compared with that at the end of October, and the overall operating rate was around 70%. According to the business agency, Yantai Haopu New Material Technology Co., Ltd. shut down the 60000 ton nickel based high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant on November 24 and restarted operation on November 2; Yanshan Petrochemical’s 120000 T / a nickel based CIS polybutadiene unit was in normal operation, and the rare earth cis-1,1-polybutadiene unit was shut down The 100000 t / a high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance from November 4, with an estimated time of 7-12 days; the cis-1,4-polybutadiene units of Lande, Qixiang and Qilu are in normal operation.

Raw material prices slightly lower, the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support weakened. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 10, the butadiene price was 9185 yuan / ton, slightly lower than 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The start-up of downstream tire market continued to rise slightly, and the start-up of all steel tire and semi steel tire remained above 70%, and there was rigid demand for rubber.

At present, the downstream support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still obvious. On the one hand, the raw material butadiene enters a short-term stable period, and the cost support strength is weakened; on the other hand, it is the correction and adjustment of the early excessive growth. On the whole, there is no short-term strong negative factor in the market, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industrial chain is still in a relatively strong stage.

In the early stage, however, it is expected that the rubber price will remain high in the early stage, and the price of raw materials will remain high in the future.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 9): 402.50 yuan / ton

On November 9, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose by 5.0 yuan / ton or 1.26% compared with the price quoted on November 6. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 410 yuan / ton.

This week (11.2-11.6) the domestic cyclohexanone market downturn finishing. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 5850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5866 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 0.28% during the week, increased by 2.62% month on month, and decreased by 22.81% year on year. At present, the downstream polymerization plant and caprolactam are slightly weak, the chemical fiber list is shelved, and the shipment of cyclohexanone is not smooth. The traders frankly said that there is no order in the near future. The pressure of cyclohexanone delivery is still on the high side, and the price keeps falling. Business agency cyclohexanone analysts expect that the next week domestic cyclohexanone market finishing.

Regional price

6200-6300 yuan / ton in East China

6300-6400 yuan / ton in South China

5950-6050 yuan / ton in Shandong, cash delivery

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (November 2): 2896.67 yuan / ton

On November 2, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose by 33.34 yuan / ton, or 1.16%, compared with that on October 30. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. But the downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on October 29 was 38.05, down 0.03 points compared with yesterday, 62.70% lower than 102.01 points (2014-01-09), 26.88% higher than 29.99 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In October 2020, the hydrobenzene market will rise after shocks. The factory price in North China will rise by 3.45% from 3332.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3447.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (East China) in October 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

October 9 3300 – 150

October 14 3350 + 50

October 16 3400 + 50

October 20 3500 + 100

October 22 3600 + 100

In October 2020, the price of pure benzene of Yangzi Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) will be lowered once and increased four times. As of October 22, the price will be 3600 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province monitored in the above figure that the price of hydrogenated benzene Market in this month was relatively stable at the beginning of the month, the basic replenishment was completed before the festival, the market opened quietly after the festival, the price was temporarily stable, and the transaction was general. In the middle of the year, it was in the rising channel, driven by the rising styrene downstream and the rising external market. Affected by this, the market mentality was obviously improved, and the ex factory price of pure benzene rose one after another. Sinopec was listed on the 14th, 16th, 20th and 22nd, which increased by 300 yuan / ton, and Sinopec’s quotation was 3600 yuan / ton by the end of the month. Hydrogenated benzene followed the trend, the atmosphere was warm, downstream purchase on demand, but a deal. After that, with the bidding price of upstream crude benzol increased significantly, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene increased, and the support of downstream styrene to upstream was weakened, the pure benzene hydrobenzene market gradually returned to the dominant position of supply and demand changes. At the end of the month, the hydrobenzene market was mainly consolidated, the bidding price of crude benzene was reduced, and the industrial chain returned to a small adjustment trend.

In terms of downstream demand, at present, the main demand areas for hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene in East China and North China have more unit maintenance from late October to November. If the unit is shut down on time, the overall market demand is expected to weaken. However, at the end of the fourth quarter, some new production capacity will be put into production in North China. Affected by this positive effect, the mentality of market participants remains stable for a long time.

In terms of aftermarket, the business community believes that at present, the influence of fundamental factors is less, the market trend mainly follows the change of supply and demand in the nature of the market, and the hydrobenzene market will be mainly consolidated in the short term. In the fourth quarter, we still need to focus on the impact of new downstream capacity and crude oil price on the market.