1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on October 23 was 3867 yuan / ton, an increase of 67 yuan / ton or 1.75% compared with last week, according to business agency data.

On October 22, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3845 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton or 0.26% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of October 22, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1183800 tons, a decrease of 97200 tons or 7.59% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 26400 tons or 2.18% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang have slightly improved this week compared with last week. The average daily shipment of Zhangjiagang is about 7800 tons, and that of Taicang is 5900 tons.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 55%, down 3% from last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 88%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 600000 tons in Xinjiang Tianye was shut down for maintenance during the 11th Five Year Plan period. At present, the overhaul is coming to an end, and it is expected to restart feeding next week. The 300000 t / a syngas to ethylene glycol plant in western Guizhou was shut down at the beginning of this month to replace the catalyst, which is expected to resume operation in the near future.

3、 Analysis and prediction

In terms of demand, although the textile terminal is expected to be better due to the transfer of orders in the near future, due to the consumption of inventory in the short term, the production and sales of polyester end are flat, so there is little support for ethylene glycol. In terms of supply, domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level, and foreign imports have decreased. Due to the small arrival volume, although the shipment is not much, the port inventory is still falling continuously this week. It is expected that in the short term, it is still in the stock removal cycle, and the price of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product

2、 Market analysis

On October 21, the market of lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of October 21, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, with a half year cycle falling by 4.09% year-on-year. Recently, the market of lithium hydroxide has been running steadily, and the major lithium salt factory director has been mainly supplying overseas. The supply and demand of small and medium-sized enterprises is in the state of accumulation, and the price is stable under the support of cost.

Production data of lithium hydroxide: in September 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was around 873 tons, up 1.16% month on month and 34.31% year on year.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate price after the festival temporarily stable, may be good in the short term. According to the data of business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on October 20 was 39500 yuan / ton, which was 1.54% higher than that on September 20 (38900 yuan / ton). On October 20, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which was 0.68% higher than that on September 20 (43900 yuan / ton). At present, the demand growth of power market is obvious, the output is gradually rising, and the supply tension is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may be in a favorable state in the short term, but it is difficult for the price to rise in the long term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 20, 2020, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were butadiene (7.10%), DMF (4.57%) and sulfur (4.12%). There were 9 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were acetone (- 5.33%), isopropanol (- 1.60%) and potassium nitrate (- 1.20%). The average rise and fall was 0.34%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide Market is under pressure at present, but under the support of cost, it is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will run smoothly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the price of pure benzene this week stopped falling and rose. On October 11, the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3300 yuan / ton (average price was 3280 yuan / ton); this Sunday (October 18), the listed price of pure benzene was 3180-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3360 yuan / ton), with an increase of 2.44%.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the domestic pure benzene market was mainly driven by styrene, and the market trading atmosphere rose. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure capital twice this week, a total of 100 yuan / ton. The higher price of pure benzene stimulated the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the market transaction was active.

On the external side, on Friday (October 16), South Korea imported 419.5 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 19.17 US dollars / ton, or 4.79% compared with October 9; and East China imported 428.5 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 15.5 US dollars / ton, or 3.75% compared with October 9.

In terms of crude oil, Brent fell $0.305/barrel, or 0.73%, compared with October 9, and WTI rose 0.21/barrel, or 0.51%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 37.62% and WTI decreased by 32.34%.

Downstream: the domestic styrene price rose strongly this week, driving the pure benzene market to rise. On October 16, the price of styrene in Shandong was 6050 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 11.01%.

Aniline enterprise inventory is low, combined with the main contract and shipping, the spot supply is less, the price is rising continuously. On October 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6500-6600 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health events in Europe and the United States is tightening, and the market is worried about the limited demand for crude oil. Next week, oil prices may be under pressure.

It is expected that the price of styrene will continue to rise next week, and the positive will drive the pure benzene to continue to rise. But pure benzene inventory is still at a high level, short-term consumption is difficult to limit the rise.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (October 19): 1706.67 yuan / ton

On October 19, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.99%, compared with that on October 16. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. On the afternoon of 14, India’s RCF urea tender was launched. The total bidding volume was 3.6 million tons, and the lowest price was 279.25 CFR US dollars / ton on the east coast. The price was not significantly different from the domestic mainstream regional prices, forming a certain support for the domestic market.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 1710 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of some domestic rare earth market declined, heavy rare earth price fell back, light rare earth market price trend temporarily stabilized. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on October 16 was 357 points, which was the same as yesterday, 64.30% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 31.73% higher than 271 point, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 322000 yuan / ton, which was equal to 322000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 409000 yuan / ton, which was flat with 409000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 347000 yuan / ton, which was equal to 347000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 433000 yuan / ton, which was stable this week, and the price of praseodymium oxide was 322500 yuan / ton, This week the price trend is stable; the metal praseodymium price trend is stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic light rare earth industry is mainly due to the negative downstream procurement, strong wait-and-see attitude, reduced trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, some prices in the light rare earth market remain at a low level, and the price trend of other products is mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth is low, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level 。 In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on rare earth production and export, overseas demand has not improved, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has remained low in recent years.

This week, the price trend of domestic direct family declined slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.63 million yuan / ton, which was 0.31% lower this week; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.62 million yuan / ton, which was 1.62% lower this week. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the information of collection and storage is not accurate At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths. However, the downstream demand is not positive in recent years, and the market price of heavy rare earth continues to fall. In recent years, the market is general, heavy rare earth prices remain high, downstream demand has not significantly improved, heavy rare earth market prices slightly lower.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has declined compared with the previous period. The price of domestic rare earth parts fell this week.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has fallen down compared with the previous period. In addition, the downstream purchasing is not active and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to decline in the future.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 6338 yuan / ton on October 9 and 6363 yuan / ton on October 12, with an increase of 0.39% in the three days after the festival, with a month on month increase of 6.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 44.96%. In terms of enterprises, the butadiene supply price of Sinopec’s sales companies remained stable at 6500 yuan / ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 tons / year butadiene extraction unit was in normal operation, 600 tons of goods were sold through competitive bidding, with the bottom price of 5700 yuan / ton and the transaction price of 5830-5840 yuan / ton. As for the market, as of the end of last week (10.9), the butadiene market in Shandong was slightly stronger, and the dealer’s offer was about 6400-6500 yuan / ton; the butadiene market in East China continued to be deadlocked, and Jiangyin’s offer was about 6500 yuan / ton.

The external supply price of butadiene of Sinopec production enterprises is as follows:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamics

Normal operation of 6500 165000 T / a unit in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd

Normal operation of 65.012 million T / a unit in Shanghai Petrochemical Company

Normal operation of 65.012 million T / a unit in Yangzi Petrochemical Company

Sinopec’s 65.2 million T / a unit is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical’s 650015000t / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount of export

The 65.03 million T / a unit of Guangzhou Petrochemical Company is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

The 65.013 million tons / year butadiene extraction unit of Wuhan ethylene is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

External market: as of October 9, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at 835-845 US dollars / ton, CFR China closed at 835-845 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 615-625 USD / T, stable; FD northwest Europe closed at 495-505 euro / T, up 10 euro / T.

The external price of butadiene is still expected to go up, and the supply price of domestic manufacturers is still expected to rise, which drives up the offer of traders and makes it difficult to find the source of low-cost goods in the market. Business agency butadiene analysts expect that this week the domestic butadiene market high finishing.

The average price of TDI market in East China on the 30th was 17833.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with yesterday and increased by 39.69% compared with last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On September 29, the TDI commodity index was 94.36, flat with yesterday, down 61.95% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 79.53% higher than the lowest point of 52.56 on May 05, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The domestic TDI market has been reorganized and operated, and the atmosphere in the market is relatively empty. Most of the downstream pre Festival stock transactions are in the bottom price range, and the high price shipment resistance is relatively high. At present, most of the domestic TDI markets are in the holiday state, and the market trading enthusiasm is weak, and the floor operators mainly wait and see. On the upstream side, the price of toluene decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the market supply was still surplus. However, the demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream showed signs of improvement. With the long holiday approaching, the market showed a slight wait-and-see caution. It is expected that the toluene Market will remain weak in the future.

Market forecast: the holiday is approaching, and the downstream stock up has been completed. At present, the market support attitude of the suppliers is relatively obvious. It is expected that the domestic TDI market will be sorted out and operated in the future, and the follow-up situation of the downstream will be paid attention to.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic bromine price continued to rise in September. As of September 29, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 30333 yuan / ton, up 4.6% compared with the beginning of the month, and 1.15% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: affected by the weather and policies, the bromine output in September was lower than expected, and the downstream flame retardant market production entered the peak season. The overall supply of the industry was in short supply. In addition, Shandong began to levy resource tax, and the price of bromine continued to rise. Near the end of the month, downstream users and traders basically completed the preparation before the festival, and they also had some resistance to the high price of bromine The market gradually stabilized. At present, mainstream bromine enterprises offer 30000-31000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the sulfur market was strong and upward in the month, refineries in various regions maintained low inventory operation, sulfur quotation was temporarily stable, and the market price was firm. At present, domestic demand and export of phosphate fertilizer in the downstream were stable. Traders and factories made more replenishment on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The sulfur market in the future was concerned about the follow-up of the downstream, which was about 843 yuan / ton. The sulfuric acid market was affected by the rise of raw materials The impact is that the fluctuation is higher in the month, and the downstream demand for sulfuric acid is positive, and the double advantages support the upward trend of sulfuric acid price, which is about 395 yuan / ton at present; the domestic liquid alkali price is stable and weak, and the overall downstream performance is general, most manufacturers still purchase on demand, and it happens to be Shuangjie manufacturers who are mainly stable in shipping, and some manufacturers’ prices remain unchanged, showing a wait-and-see state. The market of main downstream flame retardants of bromine gradually recovered, and the price support of bromine on the demand side was fair; the industry of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates started in general, and the support of demand side for bromine price was flat.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of the bromine industry of the business society believe that at present, bromine enterprises generally have low inventory and obvious intention to raise prices when the inventory is not under pressure, but the downstream market has completed the preparation before the festival, and the market trading atmosphere is declining, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on September 21 was 536 yuan / ton, and that on September 27 was 533 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.62% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic ammonium sulfate fell slightly this week. The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 550-650 yuan / ton, that of Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 460-530 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 530-580 yuan / ton, that of East China is 550-650 yuan / ton, that of North China is 500-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was weak and stable. The raw material market of compound fertilizer fluctuated slightly, the price of compound fertilizer was adjusted slightly, and the price of some enterprises was lowered. Now the market trend is not clear, compound fertilizer market big stable small move.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate Market domestic market is flat, near the National Day holiday, some enterprises prices down. The export order of ammonium sulfate is stable and the price is firm. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will decrease steadily in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will run smoothly.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market remained stable, and the overall market price remained stable. The overall market price of aluminum fluoride remained stable. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on September 25 was 8833 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week.

The price trend of domestic fluorite market is stable for the time being. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that their goods are not in good condition, and the downstream demand is not improved, and the fluorite price changes little. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been started normally, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.

The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream remain low and volatile, and the aluminum fluoride market is weak. In addition, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride is high, and the spot inventory of some factories is high. The overall inventory of aluminum fluoride industry is on the high side, and the price of aluminum fluoride is low. Under the game between supply and demand, the transaction price of aluminum fluoride has little fluctuation. The overall price of aluminum fluoride market remained stable.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society believe that: the upstream fluorite price is low, and the current aluminum fluoride inventory is high, the low price pressure plate of the downstream electrolytic aluminum plant, and the price of aluminum fluoride is weak. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market will continue to operate stably in the near future.