Trade name: naphtha

Latest price (November 30, 2020): 4592.50 yuan / ton

Analysis points: international crude oil rose sharply, supporting naphtha cost. It is understood that WTI crude oil price is 45.53 USD / barrel. At present, the refinery inventory is low, and the delivery pressure is not great. The demand of terminal gasoline market is slightly improved, and the market trading is positive.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the naphtha price in the mainland will rise steadily in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in November, the domestic price of p-xylene dropped. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4450 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4300 yuan / ton, with a price trend of 3.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.76%. The low price of PX in the external market fluctuated at a low level. The domestic PX market has a high degree of external dependence, and the low external price has a certain negative impact on the domestic price.

In November, the domestic market price of p-xylene declined slightly, and the domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. put into operation a 600000 ton new unit, Yangzi Petrochemical plant was in stable operation, fuhaichuang plant was in the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant was in stable operation, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant was running smoothly, and Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load The operation of Shandong Petrochemical plant is stable, and Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, the demand is not improved, and the price trend of p-xylene is falling. The international crude oil price rose in November, while the external price of PX rose. As of the 26th, the closing prices in Asia were 546-548 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 564-566 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia was about 60%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia was normal. The closing price of PX in November was mainly fluctuating, while that of domestic companies was 2% The price trend of toluene market declined slightly.

With the recovery of foreign economy, the closing price of international crude oil at the end of November fluctuated around $45 / barrel. As of the 26th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was at $45.71/november, which was mainly affected by the decline of US crude oil inventory data. However, three sources close to OPEC recently said that despite the rise in oil prices, OPEC, including Russia, had increased Novel coronavirus pneumonia is likely to postpone the planned oil production plan next year, which will support the market during the second wave of new crown pneumonia and Libya’s oil production. Crude oil prices have risen, but domestic market prices for p-xylene have been slightly lower.

In November, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose slightly, while the domestic PTA spot market rose. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3400 yuan / ton, and PTA price rose by 1.66% in November. The main reason is that the international oil price continued to rise in November. On the one hand, the positive news of the new crown vaccine boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is beneficial to the supply expectation. At the end of November, PTA began to accelerate the accumulation of inventory, and Fujian Baihong new production capacity was planned to be put into operation next month, resulting in increased supply pressure. In addition, the textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, new orders in the market are not good, and the inventory level rises after purchasing raw materials on a bargain. Therefore, it is expected that the purchase intention is not strong in the short term, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the price trend of PX market is limited.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of the business agency, believes that the new production capacity will have a certain impact on the market. In addition, the production and sales of polyester in the downstream have fallen down, and PTA market is facing a downward risk. In addition, the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene in December will not change much.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic soda ash market is weak. The average market price is 1600 yuan / ton, down 2.64% compared with the same period last year. On November 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 93.16, unchanged with yesterday, 20.96% lower than 117.86 (2017-11-21), and 47.52% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the atmosphere of domestic soda ash market is light, and downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The price of soda ash in Shandong is stable for the time being. The mainstream light alkali factory offers 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is fair. Downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. According to the price of soda ash in Central China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1450-1600 yuan / ton, and the market atmosphere is OK. However, the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be stabilized in the short term. The main reasons for the price decline of soda ash are as follows: first, the total inventory of soda ash continues to be large; second, the downstream demand continues to be low, and the downstream enterprises mainly wait-and-see attitude, and the enterprises do not ship well and sell at reduced prices.

Raw materials: domestic crude salt trading atmosphere is good this week, and prices in some regions are stable and rising. The operation of sea salt is stable, the well and mineral salt areas perform well, and the price rises. The performance of lake salt is not good, the downstream purchasing intention is not good, and the market performance is weak.

Demand: the general trend of glass spot market is general, the situation of production enterprises leaving the warehouse slightly changes, and the market turnover sentiment is flat. With the decrease of temperature in northern China, the rush time is coming to an end, and the orders of glass processing enterprises are also slowing down. Other regional market transactions are fair, basically able to maintain the balance of production and sales, market turnover sentiment has not been affected. On the whole, the current stock out situation can still be maintained for a period of time, which is expected to slow down at the end of this month or the beginning of next month. In terms of regions, affected by the decrease in temperature, the number of orders for processing enterprises to rush to work in the northern part of the country has slightly decreased, and the speed of purchasing glass sheets has also changed. In terms of regional situation, the markets in East and South China remained relatively good, with no impact on changes, and the market transactions were fair; transactions in some parts of North China slowed down, and prices of some manufacturers were loosened, mainly to increase delivery; in some southwest regions, the market prices rose slightly, and the transaction remained stable.

Demand: ammonium chloride demand off-season, coupled with high inventory, it is expected that the market of ammonium chloride will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, and the price will continue to decline.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week (11.16-11.20) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and 0 kinds of falling commodities, and 2 kinds of commodities are up and down. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (4.12%), PVC (3.58%) and hydrochloric acid (3.28%); this week, they all rose or fell by 2.2%.

Analysts from the business agency believe that: the performance of soda ash market is weak, downstream manufacturers purchase on demand, enterprises actively ship, downstream procurement is mainly on-demand procurement, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market price changes little. According to the comprehensive forecast, the weak operation of domestic soda ash market in the short term is given priority to.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7750.00 yuan / ton on November 22 and 8050.00 yuan / ton on November 23, with a one-day increase of 3.87% and an increase of 7.10% compared with November 1 at the beginning of the month.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11300.00 yuan / ton on November 22 and 1160.00 yuan / ton on November 23, with a one-day increase of 2.65% and an increase of 11.14% compared with November 1 at the beginning of the month.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8433.33 yuan / ton on November 22 and 8533.33 yuan / ton on November 23, with a one-day increase of 1.19% and an increase of 2.40% compared with November 1 at the beginning of the month.

Regional variety manufacturers rose and fell from November 1 to November 23

East China LLDPE 7042 Jilin Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / T 8050 yuan / T + 550 yuan

East China LLDPE 7042 Daqing Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 8050 yuan / ton + 550 yuan

East China LLDPE 7042 Dushanzi Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 8050 yuan / ton + 550 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical Company 10400 yuan / ton 11350 yuan / ton + 950 yuan / ton

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 10400 yuan / ton 11350 yuan / ton + 950 yuan / ton

East China HDPE 5000S Daqing Petrochemical Company 8300 yuan / ton 8500 yuan / ton + 200 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 8300 yuan / ton 8500 yuan / ton + 200 yuan

In November, the three varieties of PE spot market and the futures market showed an upward trend as a whole. Among them, the three varieties in the spot market rose periodically within the month, while the futures market was mainly weak in the first ten days of the month, and the rising route began on November 11. On November 23, the futures and futures rose hand in hand, and the spot rise was more prominent. Among them, high-pressure varieties led the rise, followed by linear varieties, while low-pressure varieties were driven by the other two varieties to follow up slightly. One of the reasons for this rise is that the supply of high-voltage market is affected by the shutdown of equipment of Maoming Petrochemical and other enterprises, which leads to the decrease of supply, the tight supply of goods in the market and the sharp increase of prices. Secondly, the futures market continued to rise sharply, which obviously supported the trading atmosphere of the spot market. International crude oil and ethylene prices continue to rise in recent years, bringing certain benefits to the market. Petrochemical factory prices mainly rise, business mentality is good, market prices are higher.

In November, the sharp rise of plastic futures brings strong support to the spot market

On November 23, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2101 was 7760, the highest price was 7970, the lowest price was 7720, the closing price was 7965, the previous settlement price was 7800, the settlement price was 7865, up 165, or 2.13%, the trading volume was 394112, the position was 266921, and the daily increase was 2302. (unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of upstream ethylene market, Asian ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 20th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 940-950 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at 855-865 USD / T. European ethylene market prices rose, as of the 20th, FD northwest Europe closed at 744-755 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 708-717 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. also rose significantly. As of the 20th, the price was 471-485 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of November, the market of ethylene in Europe and America rose sharply. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market improved, the atmosphere was active, and the market rose sharply.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film has decreased, the demand for greenhouse film is reduced, and the plastic film is in the off-season, which has no good support for the price. However, the continuous rise in the futures market supported the bullish confidence of the industry. The crude oil and ethylene markets rose one after another, and the cost support was strengthened, which was beneficial to the market mentality. Polyethylene market is expected to rise in the short term.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices rose this week, acetic anhydride market slowed down. As of November 23, the average price of acetic anhydride was 6175.00 yuan / ton, which was 4.88% higher than 5887.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (November 16), and 2.31% higher than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart that the acetic acid price continued to rise this week, with an increase of 6.15%. The overall acetic anhydride market rose sharply this week, with the cost of acetic anhydride rising and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising.

Methanol price trend

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart, the methanol price fell first and then rose, and the methanol market dropped slightly, with a decrease of 0.24% this week. Compared with last weekend (November 15), the methanol price increased by 0.36%. The overall cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise was greater, which was good for the acetic anhydride market.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from the business agency, acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, rose sharply this week, and the price of methanol fluctuated and adjusted. The overall methanol price rose slightly and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the pressure of acetic anhydride increased, the market of acetic anhydride was favorable, and the market of acetic anhydride rose.

1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on November 20 was 5016.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 1.35% month on month, 6.23% lower than the beginning of the year, and 5.94% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market has been running steadily with little change. The raw material yellow phosphorus price is high consolidation, the cost side support is strong, the phosphoric acid price is relatively firm, the industry is stable and wait and see the market, the price fluctuation is not big, but the demand side has not obvious good boost, there are few new orders, the short-term market is glued, with the implementation of low water price in the future market, as well as environmental protection factors, the phosphoric acid market may rise again under the strong support of cost. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 20, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5016.67 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, and the price was stable; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Tianjin, the price was 5 About 600 yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; the price in Jiangsu Province is about 4600 yuan / ton, which is slightly increased, but the price changes little in different places.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% Nov 20 5390-5400

Phosphoric acid content in Southwest China: 85% Nov 20 4900-4920

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

Yellow phosphorus, at present, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, yellow phosphorus Market Spot slightly tense. The raw material phosphate rock rose slightly, the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises increased, and the requirements of atmospheric monitoring and environmental protection in autumn and winter were met. Due to the environmental protection requirements, some yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas reduced production, stopped furnace and suspended the order receiving status, which made the spot of yellow phosphorus tight. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus still has a bullish expectation in the short term, but the increase is limited.

Phosphate rock, more than half of November, China’s domestic phosphate ore market rose slightly in the early days of the month, with Guizhou and Guangxi as the main regions to increase the price, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the overall stable operation of the market is given priority to. At present, the market mainly deals with old orders, while the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the new orders are limited. According to the phosphorus ore data division of the business society, the phosphorus ore market is mainly stable in the short term, and the overall fluctuation is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society believe that the current cost support is strong, the price of phosphoric acid is relatively firm, the operators are stable and wait-and-see market, the price fluctuation is not big, but there is no obvious positive boost in the demand side, the market is tight in the short term, the trend is mainly stable, and the cost side change should be paid attention to.

According to the statistics of the business agency, on November 19, the spot price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region ran smoothly, and the average market price of 32S polyester yarn was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on November 10. The yarn Market in Hangzhou, Suzhou and Jiaxing is generally good. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market situation was poor from March to May this year. Since May, it began to improve, and recently the market has declined. The production opening rate of the enterprise has basically reached 100%, and the product inventory is small. However, some enterprises have also reflected that due to the recent market downturn, the yarn price has dropped and the profit margin is low.

Yarn manufacturers started normal as a whole. Recently, yarn prices began to decline. Under the double influence of the end of the “double 11″ market and the aggravation of overseas epidemic situation, domestic and foreign orders decreased significantly. In the future market and the lack of downstream demand, yarn market is difficult to have a good market. Due to the later manufacturers to prepare goods for the new year, so the current good, is expected to maintain orders until the end of December.

The supply and demand side is not good. Some polyester factories in the upstream promote their sales, but the production and sales are not prosperous as a whole. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% – 150%, and some of the better factories are 170%. The overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days. The price of polyester staple fiber is 5800-5900 / T, slightly lower than the previous period.

In terms of the starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to about 91%. There are fewer orders and sales volume of the enterprise, and the inventory is more than one month. The enterprise has a production restriction plan. If the market continues to shrink, or some enterprises take measures to limit production, the situation is not optimistic. The order is close to one month, and the cloth product inventory is about one month. In the near future, grey cloth prices are in a downward trend, and it is expected that the market as a whole will remain weak before the Spring Festival.

Aftermarket forecast: foreign orders did not improve significantly, domestic market placed orders cautiously, still dominated by small orders, do domestic spot enterprises increase product inventory. The export market cannot recover in the short term, and the domestic market potential needs to be continuously released. Hope that at the end of this month, spring and summer fabrics will be placed in succession. However, due to the increase of uncertain factors in the market, the downstream garment enterprises have little confidence in the market. At present, the whole state of the textile industry chain seems to be very similar to that when it just returned to work at the beginning of the year. In the short term, the market is not very optimistic, and the yarn price may continue to fall in the later period.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

The domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable this week. According to the data of the business club, as of November 13, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, and increased by 6.45% compared with October 13. In recent years, the downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industries started relatively stable, while the leather industry started in general, while the pharmaceutical industry mainly purchased on demand. The overall demand remained stable and the market was stable.

For upstream caustic soda, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 13, the average price quoted by enterprises was 490 yuan / ton, which was 1.01% lower than that on November 1. The downstream purchasing demand was general, and there was a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda sorting would be weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price quoted by enterprises as of November 13 was 2966.67 yuan / ton , down 7.77% from November 1 Upstream sulfuric acid, the recent (11.01-11.13) Shandong sulfuric acid market rose, upstream sulfur market rose slightly, cost support is good, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, sulfuric acid supply is normal, the future market sulfuric acid factory price fluctuates slightly; upstream methanol, according to business and social monitoring data, as of November 13, the average price quoted by enterprises was 2110 yuan / ton, compared with November 1 It was up 12.08%.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45 th week (11.9-11.13) of 2020, there were 42 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector which rose month on month, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 19.6% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were propylene glycol (15.52%), bisphenol A (14.46%) and styrene (13.15%). There were 16 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were TDI (- 10.00%), sodium bicarbonate (- 7.89%) and dichloromethane (- 6.25%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.79%.

3、 Future forecast

Formic acid analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, raw material prices have been rising and falling, downstream demand has been basically stable, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the formic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Trend analysis

According to the data of business agency, the price of cobalt fell in November, and the market of cobalt Market weakened. As of November 16, the cobalt price was 267500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from 268666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1).

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the statistics of China mobile phone market, the total number of domestic mobile phone sales decreased by 0.261-2.21 billion in the year-on-year basis. In October, domestic mobile phone sales rose on a month on month basis, but fell sharply year-on-year. The demand for cobalt market recovered, but it was still not enough to support the rise of cobalt price.

Domestic new energy vehicle market

According to the statistical data of CAAC, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 167000 and 160000, respectively, up 69.7% and 104.5% year-on-year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 914000 and 901000, respectively, down 9.2% and 7.1% year-on-year. From July to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles broke the historical records of the month in April, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to rise in a single month, and the market of new energy vehicles recovered. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole year still fell sharply year on year, and the recovery of new energy vehicle market was not enough to support the recovery of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, believes that mobile phones rose month on month in October, new energy vehicle sales rose sharply, and cobalt market demand recovered. However, in the global market, affected by the epidemic situation, the sales of major mobile phones and new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States dropped sharply, and the overall demand of cobalt market declined. The recovery of domestic cobalt market demand is difficult to change the overall market trend of weak global cobalt market demand, and the rising motivation of cobalt price is insufficient.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market is up this week. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of November 13, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 6733.33 yuan / ton, up 7.45% compared with the beginning of the week and 20.24% higher than that on October 13. Manufacturers to implement early orders, spot supply is tight, the market is willing to rise, melamine prices go up.

At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 5900 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 6500 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, November 13, Shandong urea market rose. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that in the near future, the upstream urea price has risen slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, and the spot supply in the market is tight. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance for the specific trend.