On March 25, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) was lowered. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13791.67 yuan / ton on March 25, up 0.98% compared with the average market price of 13658.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (3.1).

On the 25th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13500-13600 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14500-14700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 13900-14000 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu is 13900-14000 yuan / ton .

Import and export data: from January to February 2021, the export volume of metallic silicon was 112000 tons, an increase of 18.4% year on year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 24, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 12400 yuan / ton, which was 1366 yuan / ton lower than that on March 15 (13766 yuan / ton), with a decrease of 9.93%; and 2733 yuan / ton lower than that on March 1 (15133 yuan / ton), with a decrease of 18.06%.

Continuous insufficient support of demand, n-butanol fell sharply in late March

In early March, stimulated by the increase in exports, the n-butanol market once again reached a historical high. However, the “high” was short-lived, the downstream costs were under too much pressure, the demand was cold, the market was deadlocked, and the focus of transaction continued to move down into late March, The n-butanol market in Shandong Province continued to decline. On the 15th, the offer price of n-butanol plants in Shandong Province was sharply reduced by 500-1000 yuan / ton. The mainstream offer price in the market was around 13500-14000 yuan / ton. The low-end price transaction was acceptable. The market trading atmosphere was eased. The main downstream users of butyl acrylate maintained purchasing on demand. Subsequently, the market as a whole remained weak and fell slightly, and the transaction continued to loosen.

Due to the lack of continuous purchasing support from the demand side, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong fell sharply on the 22nd, and the difference between the market price of n-butanol in Shandong and that in South China widened. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong was lowered to 12000-12500 yuan / ton, down 8000-1300 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. After the significant profit concession of n-butanol plants, the trading volume increased, but there was no change The phenomenon of rush for goods downstream.

Positive device to boost n-butanol fell slightly after the rally

On the 23rd and 24th, driven by the favorable maintenance of n-butanol units in some regions of China, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users increased, and the market price rose slightly. By the end of the 24th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 12400 yuan / ton. Compared with the 22nd, the price had a correction of 233 yuan / ton, up 1.92%. Compared with the 21st, the price had a decrease of 933 yuan / ton, down 7%. Compared with the 15th, the price had a decrease of 1366 yuan / ton, down 9.93%.

Upstream, March 24, Shandong propylene market prices fell slightly stable. According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. The current market transaction has dropped to 7950-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7950-8000 yuan / ton. The US propylene market dropped sharply on the 18th, which also had a certain impact on the domestic market. Propylene market is now no pressure on inventory, shipment is relatively smooth.

The market fluctuated rapidly, the downstream was cautious, and n-butanol remained weak and stable in the short term

As the recent fluctuation of n-butanol market is relatively fast, and the range is relatively large, although the current n-butanol market price is the low price in the market for nearly a month, the fluctuation still aggravates the wait-and-see mood of downstream procurement, the mentality of downstream industry is obviously more cautious, and the demand is not fully opened due to the low price. Therefore, the n-butanol data analysts of the business community believe that the n-butanol market in the short term The price rebounds sharply, the motive force is insufficient, and Duowei is weak and stable.

On the 22nd, the quotation range of lead ingot in domestic spot lead market was about 15050-15150 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15100 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. On the evening of the 19th, Shanghai lead continued to strengthen under the double positive effects of the domestic macroeconomic data and the decline of lead ingot inventory. Shanghai lead continued to rise at the opening of the 22nd and ended up 350 yuan / ton, or 2.36%.

In terms of inventory, Shanghai Futures lead inventory on the 19th was 50656 tons, down 7414 tons, while the social inventory of lead ingots also decreased by about 2400 tons compared with the same period last week. The spot market is driven by the rise of futures prices, but the overall trading situation is not ideal. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and the market trading is mainly medium and long-term just need customers, so it is difficult to find loose orders.

The ex factory offer of smelters followed the upward trend, but the range was small, far lower than the futures market, and the shipping intention was still positive. Market traders responded that today’s shipping pressure is greater, the downstream is still in the off-season of consumption, the demand for lead ingots is relatively stable, the price is rising, the market inquiry turns light, and the trading is cold. In the future, in the case of no obvious improvement in downstream demand, there is a certain resistance to the upward price of lead ingot, which is expected to be mainly shock consolidation.

In recent years, the domestic ethanol market has been volatile, and the market performance of different regions is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 19, the domestic ethanol market price was 7275 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 0.34%, and a year-on-year rise of 37.26%.

In terms of regional market, the ethanol market in Henan is stable; the ethanol market in Northeast China is weak; the ethanol market in East China and Shandong is stable; the corn ethanol market in Dongguan, South China is high; the corn ethanol market in Sichuan is stable; the cassava ethanol market in Anhui is stable; the cassava ethanol market in Dongguan, Guangdong is weak; some cassava ethanol plants in Yunnan are running; the market in Guangdong is stable; The molasses ethanol market in Guangxi is strong, while the molasses ethanol market in Yunnan is stable.

Although the price of raw materials for molasses will continue to rise, the price of raw materials for molasses will remain high. From the demand point of view, the terminal chemical enterprises have gradually recovered, and the downstream just need to purchase.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7400 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi: 7050-7250 yuan / ton

Anhydrous ethanol in Guangxi: 7700-7950 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

About 7800-8000 yuan / ton of anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong

Shandong Province: 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ superior corn ﹣ 8000-8200 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province, ﹣ 7950-8000 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, the price of the general grade is less than 7300 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average corn yield is about 7150-7200 yuan / ton

About 7100-7150 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8000-8050 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7300-7350 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-7950 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Province ﹣ corn alcohol general grade ﹣ 6850-7000 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 8150-8300 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 7050 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6950 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

Corn prices declined slightly, the market circulation of grain increased, enterprises actively purchase, but the price still can not match the price of ethanol, enterprise production is still at a loss. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market price mainly fluctuates in a narrow range.

After deep adjustment, the risk of over speed rise in the early stage is fully released. Looking back on the historical trend, rubber market is usually prone to a high level around February, while according to the correlation analysis between NiO 3.4 index and Shanghai rubber, the rubber price usually falls in a round after Lanina phenomenon. No matter how short-term fluctuation, the main trend of the upward oscillation of rubber center of gravity is not changed.

Supply and demand increase in the overall situation

ANPRC issued data and trend report on natural rubber, and the main view is that the supply and demand of natural rubber in 2021 will rebound significantly, but the market rebalancing state may be repeated.

ANRPC expects that the global natural rubber production will reach 13.678 million tons in 2021, a significant increase of 8.6% year-on-year, but lower than the level of 1384200 tons in 2019; in 2021, the global demand for natural rubber is expected to reach 13.336 million tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, which is also lower than 13.768 million tons in 2019.

Long term statistics and estimates may not be significant for real-time trend and guidance of small and medium-sized transactions in the session, but these conclusions are clear again that the focus of natural rubber in the middle of the shock is the future market trend.

Basic elements are generally balanced

In terms of supply, Southeast Asian rubber producing countries enter a seasonal low production period. If the phenological conditions are normal, they will be opened and cut in the middle of April; the natural rubber production areas in China are in the stop cutting period, and Yunnan is expected to open and cut in late March, and Hainan will wait until the first ten days of April. In general, the global natural rubber production is at its lowest in a year, focusing on weather and disease and disease before cutting, and tracking Thailand’s progress in its plans to buy 200000 tons of glue. Although the epidemic situation in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other rubber producing countries has not been effectively controlled, from the experience of last year, except for the tight labor force of rubber cutting, the epidemic does not appear to have significantly affected the rubber production link. In terms of demand, with the comprehensive recovery of production by domestic tire enterprises, the overall starting load will continue to steadily increase; the situation of overseas epidemic situation is relieved and the economic recovery will bring the demand for replenishment of the warehouse. In terms of inventory, the rubber inventory micro increase sheet of the last period was stable, and the low level logic of warehouse order before the delivery of ru2105 contract was still established.

Pay attention to the high yield expectation in Yunnan

The annual natural rubber cutting season is approaching. At present, the physical and climatic conditions in Xishuangbanna area are basically normal, and the rubber cutting cycle in 2021-2022 is expected to start in advance.

According to Zhuo Chuang research, the phenology of Yunnan production area is better than that of previous years. There are sporadic rainfall before and after the Spring Festival, and the germination of rubber trees is relatively ideal. March is the key period of rubber leaf growth. If there is no severe weather such as low temperature and drought, it is expected that a small part of the leaves will be cut in the middle and late ten days. Most areas will be ahead of the previous year before and after the end of the month. In order to ensure that the normal opening and cutting of rubber trees can be ensured, some areas have begun to fight pesticides.

In view of natural and human factors, the production area of Yunnan Province will be able to cut on time or in advance this year. All rubber factories are preparing for production and processing. After the last round of low production, the enthusiasm of rubber cutting and acquisition has been greatly enhanced this year, and the output materials will rebound year-on-year after cutting. Compared with this year and last year, the expectations of the natural rubber supply end are quite different. If upstream production is in accordance with the schedule, the gradual release of raw materials in the middle of the year will ease the market tension and shake the logic of delivery shortage in the 09 contract.

Strong demand support for tire vehicles

The characteristics of domestic tire enterprises starting around the Spring Festival are that although they are in the low seasonal law, they are better than the same period of previous years. From the beginning of the year, in order to complete the order, the enterprises have raised the commencement rate to over 80%, and the large factories have more full load production. During the holiday period, the measures of Floating Personnel staying in the new year reduce the risk of epidemic and ensure the rapid recovery of labor demand in manufacturing industry. Therefore, the pace of the downstream tire resumption after the festival is faster than in the previous years, especially in large-scale enterprises, which has a stable and good start-up, and the traditional off-season demand is significantly stronger than in the previous years.

According to the statistics of key enterprises, the report issued by China Automobile Industry Association estimates that: in the first two months of 2021, the cumulative sales volume of China’s auto industry has reached 3.95 million, an increase of 76.8% over the same period of last year. From the perspective of the segment market, the sales of passenger vehicles in China increased 69.4% year on year, while that of commercial vehicles increased by 80% year on year. The logic of the demand for rubber tires led by heavy truck was unchanged. After the two consecutive years of decline in 2019-2020, China’s auto market will return to the upward normal track in 2021. Overall, it is expected that China’s auto market will recover strongly in 2021, with a huge rubber consumption potential brought by base and growth rate.

Vibration and consolidation, inherent law core

Looking back on the trend of energy-based varieties, crude oil rose rubber first, and rubber plate adjusted to lead the decline, again reminded us that the basic rubber surface has not improved significantly from the accumulation of poverty and weakness. With the trend of commodity market overheating, it will enter the stage of shock sorting in a certain period. At present, rubber may be disordered in the relatively high position in the short and medium term, and the fluctuation of the disk surface is highly uncertain.

There is a common phenomenon in commodity analysis including natural rubber. Inflation logic is used when rising and the basic contradiction between decline and decline will be observed. After that, it is not enough to explain the price rise and fall through attribution. We can only judge the main logic of market transaction according to the market’s own trend. The cycle operation law of rubber itself is the blueprint of the main trend trend of the future.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 16, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2566.67 yuan / ton, down 2.52% compared with last Monday (March 8), down 3.14% compared with February 16, and up 11.59% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The formic acid market is weak recently. In terms of cost, the price of upstream raw materials has been lowered recently, and the support for formic acid has been weakened. On the demand side, the downstream industries maintain the just need to buy, the market trading atmosphere is general, the negotiation of profit making and shipping, and the market focus moves down.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.)

For upstream sulfuric acid, on March 16, Shandong’s sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable. The recent high price of upstream sulfur market was consolidated, and the cost support was good. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid in the future fluctuated slightly. For upstream methanol, as of March 15, the ex factory price of methanol enterprises in Shandong decreased, and the mainstream negotiation price of methanol market in southern Shandong fell by 30-50 yuan / ton to 2 290-2310 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on March 15, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 25 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were hydrogen peroxide (10.36%), calcium carbide (8.85%) and chloroform (7.10%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 8.02%), DOP (- 7.73%) and isooctanol (- 5.97%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.32%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that the recent decline in raw material prices, cost support weakened, the downstream wait-and-see market, it is expected that in the short term, formic acid market will be weak and stable operation, more attention should be paid to raw material market price changes.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (March 15): 2070.00 yuan / ton

On March 15, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong fell by 30 yuan / ton, or 1.43%, compared with the quotation on March 12. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. On the demand side: most of the agricultural needs are used as soon as they are purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants is acceptable, and the follow-up of small orders on bargain hunting, most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. Some of the fresh water storage sources have been expanded, and the start-up load of urea enterprises has been increased. Based on many factors such as the rising demand of local industries and the expectation of printing standards, some manufacturers are still willing to support the price.

In the future, it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and rise mainly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2100 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10611.11 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.73%.

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stable. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly stable. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, and the market price trend is temporarily stable.

The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal. Although some hydrofluoric acid units are overhauled in the field, the hydrofluoric acid market spot is acceptable. Up to now, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the manufacturers still have bullish sentiment in the near future, but the pressure of price rise in the hydrofluoric acid Market in the later stage is not small.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, was temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2766.67 yuan / ton. The price trend of this week was stable. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply was slightly tight. However, with the warming of the temperature, some manufacturers in the north were about to start the parking device. At that time, the on-site supply might increase, and the domestic fluorite price trend remained stable this week. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains stable due to the positive support.

The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, favorable factors supported the refrigerant market generally, and the price of chloroform rose sharply, which led to the rise of refrigerant price. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, the market price continues to rise, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there are many wait-and-see emotions, the shipment situation of the goods holders is normal, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiations is 15500-17000 yuan / ton. Low load operation of domestic R134a manufacturers supported the price trend of R134a to rise slightly. However, the current demand-based procurement is the main, the downstream enterprises do not start high, and the traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, and the price is high, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the downstream refrigerant market has improved, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market is stable.

From the industrial chain diagram, the fluorine chemical industry market has risen in the past three months, the price of raw material fluorite has maintained a high level, and the price of downstream refrigerants has increased slightly. In addition, the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site is normal. Supported by many favorable factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of the business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain high Level.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of ethylene external market has risen recently, with the price of USD 1104.75/t on March 1, the average price of ethylene on March 1 being 1196.25 USD / ton, up 8.28%, and the current price rose 23.04% on a month basis, and the current price rose 64.94% year on year.

Recently, the external market of ethylene market overall showed a rising trend. After the Asian ethylene market price rose sharply, it stabilized, and as of the 10th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $1198-1204 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $1143-1150 / T. The European ethylene market price rose slightly, as of the 10th, FD northwest Europe closed at $1213-1225 / T and CIF NW Europe at $1214-1225 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.

International: on March 10, the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose in price, with the settlement price of main contract at $64.44/barrel, or 0.43 USD. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contract at $67.90/barrel, or 0.38 US dollars. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as optimism for a global recovery rose and US gasoline stocks fell sharply, but oil production surges after extreme weather Limited oil prices.

The styrene market has continued to fall in the near future. Profit taking occurred in crude oil, stock market and futures. In addition, the main port of East China failed to go to the warehouse as expected and new equipment was about to be put into operation. It is expected that styrene is still in the stage of high rise and fall consolidation in the near future, with a long period of air stagnation, and the overall weak adjustment.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: at present, the crude oil: the gasoline inventory in the United States has declined sharply, the global economic recovery is relatively optimistic, and the cost side is favorable for ethylene market. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect the ethylene external market price to be mainly increased next.

1、 Price trend

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong rose, from 377.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 402.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.62%. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 62.65 on March 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, with large inventory and general downstream demand. At the weekend, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 560 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 480 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 400 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Taiyuan kunshengda quoted 120 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the downstream are also rising, which has a positive impact on sulfuric acid.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been rising step by step recently, while the market in the lower reaches is better. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the trend of products rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.