Recently, the domestic methanol market has recovered in a narrow range. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 20, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2267 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year increase of 14.09%. After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenish goods appropriately, the logistics is restored, and the freight is reduced. Domestic methanol market recovered slowly.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of February 20

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

Shanxi Province: 1800-1850 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning: 2050 yuan / ton

Fujian Province: 2500-2520 yuan / ton

In the two lakes area, the ex factory reference amount is 2085-2150 yuan / ton

Anhui area: 2270-2300 yuan / ton

The ex factory price of Henan Province is 2070-2080 yuan / ton

In terms of upstream and downstream, the market price of dimethyl ether rose steadily, and the market transaction continued to be moderate; the domestic acetic acid market rose as a whole, and the market gradually resumed normal trading.

In terms of external market, as of February 19, CFR China methanol closed at US $302.00-303.00 per ton, down 3 US dollars per ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol closed at US $374.00-375.00 per ton, down 5.5 US dollars per ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 111.00-112.00 cents / gallon, up 1 cent / gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 335.50-336.50 euros / ton, up 5.5 euros / ton.

In the future, traders’ willingness to hold goods is not strong, they have to ship goods at high prices one after another, market buying remains just in demand, and transaction is weak. Affected by the impact of domestic delivery sources, spot traders often say that it is difficult to conclude a deal. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply after the festival, and the DOP market rose. As of February 19, the DOP price was 11600.00 yuan / ton, up 15.42% from 10050.00 yuan / ton before the festival.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol rose sharply after the festival, and the price of isooctanol rose to about 13000 yuan / ton. Before the festival, the start-up of octanol equipment is low, the supply of octanol is insufficient, the supply of octanol is slightly tight, the price still has room to rise, and the DOP has a greater power to rise.

 
From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, we can see that after the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP rose, and the rising power of DOP increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that after the festival, the prices of octanol and phthalic anhydride, DOP raw material costs, DOP rising pressure, DOP price rising after the festival is cost driven, DOP demand is limited, and the downstream rising support is insufficient. DOP manufacturers started construction around February 21, while most industrial chain customers started construction around February 26. DOP supply and demand are basically balanced. The lower reaches of high price DOP are more resistant, and the lower reaches of customers are less motivated to purchase. Generally speaking, DOP is affected by the rising prices of raw materials, and it may still rise sharply in the near future. However, the downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and the transaction situation of DOP is not optimistic. After the 15th of the first month, with the industrial chain customers returning to work in succession, the demand for DOP rose, the enthusiasm of DOP transaction warmed up, and the price of DOP stabilized. However, it is still difficult to determine whether the high price DOP can be maintained.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, on February 7, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 5050 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 0.66% month on month, and down 5.31% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market is weak and stable this week. The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus is basically stable, slightly higher than last week, but it is difficult to drive the phosphoric acid market. At present, the downstream demand is stagnant. Since the 8th, most phosphoric acid enterprises have stopped work for holidays, and the market as a whole is closed. Therefore, the price of phosphoric acid is mainly stable before the Spring Festival. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 7, the quotation in Sichuan was 4900-5500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was about 4900 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was about 4900-5200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was about 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi was about 5400 yuan / ton.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5500

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5200

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4800-4900

The content of ﹣ phosphoric acid in Guangxi: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5000-5400

In Beijing and Tianjin area, the content of Pu is 85% industrial grade, 4700-5600

Yellow phosphorus, domestic yellow phosphorus market price is basically stable this week, slightly higher than last week. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16300-16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton. The price of upstream phosphate rock basically remained stable. Downstream years ago, the preparation of goods entered the closing stage, there was no significant change in the quotation of enterprises, and the phosphoric acid Market tended to be stable. Yellow phosphorus business analysts believe that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, yellow phosphorus general market trading atmosphere, sporadic delivery enterprises. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable in the short term.

For phosphate rock, as of February 5, in Hubei Province, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate rock is around 370-390 yuan / ton, and the price is basically stable. Guizhou region: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 340-380 yuan / ton nearby; 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton nearby. Guangxi region: 28% of the price of phosphate rock slab is around 290-320 yuan / ton, and 30% of the price of phosphate rock slab is 340-370 yuan / ton. Downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have suspended receiving orders one after another, and the mines are mainly supplying orders from old customers in the early stage. Phosphorus ore analysts from the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market is mainly stable on the eve of the Spring Festival.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of Shangshe chemical branch, at present, the raw material price is relatively stable, the downstream demand is stagnant, and most phosphoric acid enterprises also shut down for holidays. The market as a whole is closed. It is expected that the phosphoric acid price will run smoothly before the Spring Festival.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 8, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 7183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (7116 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.94%. Compared with the price on January 25 (the reference price of butanone was 6666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 516 yuan / ton, or 7.75%.

Since the end of January, the domestic butanone market has slightly recovered. In the first week of February, the domestic butanone market continued to rise steadily. At the beginning of the week, the overall inventory pressure of domestic factories was relatively low, and the factory quotation was firm, with an increase rate of 100-200 yuan / ton. However, there were not many new orders on the whole site. Most of the purchases were made by shippers before the festival, and then the market remained high and stable. At the end of the week, the trading atmosphere of butanone market was cold, and the downstream terminal was in a low level Factories have been parking for holidays. I heard that many secondary traders also said they were short of the market, with few new orders.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 8, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 7183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (7116 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.94%. Compared with the price on January 25 (the reference price of butanone was 6666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 516 yuan / ton, or 7.75%.

In terms of raw materials, in February, after the raw material ether, the market of C4 began to weaken, the overall trend maintained stable operation, the downstream replenishment basically ended, the procurement mostly maintained daily consumption, coupled with the reduction of transport vehicles, the transport capacity decreased, resulting in the poor delivery of some C4 manufacturers, which was limited by the pressure of warehouse discharge. It is expected that the mainstream price of C4 will maintain stable operation before and after the festival.

Butanone high finishing before the festival and weak price rise after the festival

At present, Before the Spring Festival, the downstream procurement is basically over, and the fluctuation of price has little stimulation to the current market demand. Therefore, it is expected that there will not be a substantial price adjustment before the festival, and it is mainly to maintain a stable and high-level finishing operation. After the festival, the downstream butanone is expected to need to digest inventory in a short time, and there is not much support for new orders after the festival. Therefore, it is expected that the upward trend of butanone price after the festival is less likely.

On February 4, the commodity index of hydrobenzene was 50.38, up 3.1 points from yesterday, down 50.61% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 67.99% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

This week (February 1-5), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, at 4075 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 925 yuan / ton.

On February 4, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and 5150 yuan / ton was implemented after the adjustment. Among them, Qilu Petrochemical Company implemented 4950 yuan / ton. It’s only five days since the last price adjustment on January 30, with a continuous rise of 350 yuan / ton within five days.

On January 28, the restart of the pure benzene unit of Sinochem failed, and its 480000 ton annual production unit will not be restarted until the end of February, one month later than the expected start-up time. The whole February has a certain impact on the market supply, and the downstream purchasers of CICC are mainly long-term contract customers concentrated in East China. In the East China market, due to the expected decrease in supply, the market transactions have surged, and some customers have increased the stock volume, resulting in a large increase in demand in a short period of time, and the market price in East China has been rising one after another. Shandong followed the East China market and began to increase sharply around Wednesday. As a substitute for pure benzene, the trend of hydrogenated benzene is basically consistent with that of pure benzene. Driven by the price of pure benzene and the improvement of purchasing enthusiasm in East China, the market of hydrogenated benzene has been rising all the way. Although Shandong rose late, it rose more this week.

 
The recent start-up of hydrobenzene unit is good, and some enterprises that reduced the load in the early stage started to improve this week. There are still some enterprises that stopped work last year and have not started work yet.

The business association thinks that the current pure benzene market has reached a high level in nearly a year, but this time, the price has increased by a large margin and the time is relatively concentrated, which has basically digested the increase after the festival in advance. When the stock returns to rational, the price will eventually return to a reasonable level.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

The overall trend of epichlorohydrin market price fell in January. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 31, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10900 yuan / ton, down 12.80% compared with that on January 1, and up 0.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the first ten days of January, the market supply was relatively abundant, the manufacturers’ shipment was not smooth, the middle and lower reaches lacked confidence in the future market, the purchase intention of raw materials was not high, and the market was weak. In the middle of this year, the market continued its downward trend, the accumulated inventory increased, the follow-up of demand was insufficient, and the low price supply was frequent. In the latter half of the year, the lower reaches mainly need to prepare goods, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see.

Upstream propylene, as of January 29, Shandong propylene market price has stabilized. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th, and rose or stabilized in the later stage. It rose by about 250-300 yuan / ton this month. It began to decline continuously on the 21st, and dropped by 500-550 yuan / ton on the 28th. Today, it is generally stable. The market transaction is between 6900-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still between 6900-7350 yuan / ton 000 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock pressure is too big, the shipment situation is desolate

As for downstream epoxy resin, as of January 29, the liquid epoxy resin in East China has been running smoothly at a high level, the mainstream negotiation price is 25800-27000 yuan / ton, the factory mainly delivers orders, and the logistics transportation is limited near the end of the year.

3、 Future forecast

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, the overall trend of epichlorohydrin in January was downward. In February, there was no pressure on manufacturers’ stock at present, and most of the downstream companies needed to follow up. With the end of pre Festival stock preparation in the downstream, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose in January. By the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10270 yuan / ton, 7.76% higher than 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 0.29% higher than the same period last year.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose sharply in January. So far, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly higher. Recently, domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, and the market price trend continues to rise.

The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2741.11 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.82% in January. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply is tight, and the temperature is low. Some manufacturers in the North are parking, and the supply in the yard is slightly tight. The domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is affected by the favorable support, and the trend is rising.

The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-16000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers reduced load operation, which supported R134a price rising. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the downstream refrigerant market is improving, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising slightly.

In general, due to the high price of raw material fluorite, the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, and the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. Supported by multiple positive factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

In 2021, the domestic lead ingot Market fluctuated and rose. The average price of domestic market was 14862.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15318.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly rise of 3.07%.

On January 28, the lead commodity index was 93.23, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 30.43% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) in the cycle, and up 24.92% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Since January, at the beginning of the month, the sales of downstream battery enterprises increased, the lead ingot inventory was postponed, the downstream demand improved, the spot lead market negotiations increased, and the market price trend was good. Around the 7th, affected by the public health incident in Hebei, transportation was limited, many refineries in Hebei Province entered the overhaul ahead of time, the overall operating rate declined, the demand for raw materials weakened, and the market price entered the downward cycle. Since the middle of this year, with the gradual recovery of transportation and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream manufacturers have a certain demand for goods, and the price of spot lead has fluctuated higher. However, towards the end of the month, downstream manufacturers began to repair or stop production one after another, and the manufacturers that did not stop production also announced the shutdown time, and their willingness to prepare raw materials declined. They mainly purchased a small amount of raw materials, and most of them were long-term customers. Only in Henan and other areas where there is no work stoppage during the holidays, the transaction is slightly better. As of the 29th, most enterprises have finished preparing goods before the festival. According to the announcement, most enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday early next month. As for futures, LME’s lead inventory was removed again by the 29th, with a decrease of 3025 tons to 10415 tons. This month, LME’s lead inventory was continuously and intensively removed, with the main trend of lead shock. In January, Shanghai lead was first restrained and then rose. In the first half of the month, the downward trend stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the month, with a monthly increase of about 4%.

In the future, the business club believes that the stock preparation before the festival is basically over, and the traders have more demand for funds and strong shipping intention near the end of the new year. However, the downstream batteries continue to be in the doldrums, and the lead price without demand support is difficult to increase significantly. Due to the recent uncertainties in Sino US relations, the futures market failed to continue its early rise, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate before the festival.

Relevant data:

WBMs: the global lead market will be short of 86000 tons from January to November 2020: according to the latest report released by the world Bureau of metal statistics on Wednesday, the global lead market will be short of 86000 tons from January to November 2020, compared with 264000 tons in 2019. From January to November, the global refined lead output was 11.969 million tons, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 5.759 million tons, an increase of 420000 tons over the same period in 2019, accounting for about 48% of the global total. In November 2020, the output of refined lead is 1.2068 million tons, and the demand is 1.2284 million tons.

ILZSG: the global lead market was short of 8000 tons in October: according to the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG), the global lead market was short of 8000 tons in October and 300 tons in September. In the first 10 months of 2020, global lead supply was in excess of 164000 tons, compared with a shortage of 42000 tons in the same period last year.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, on January 29, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 5050 yuan / ton, which was the same as 5050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.34% month on month and down 5.61% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market was running smoothly. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was stable, slightly lower than that of last week. The cost support was still in progress. However, as the Spring Festival approached, the trading volume of phosphoric acid market gradually weakened and the main orders were issued. At present, the lower reaches of the year before the end of the stock, coupled with limited logistics, demand reduction, industry cautious wait-and-see attitude, no price adjustment plan, stable price shipping. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of January 29, the quotation in Sichuan was 4900-5500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was about 4900 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was about 4900-5200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was about 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi was about 5400 yuan / ton.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5500

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade – 4900-5200

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4800-4900

The content of ﹣ phosphoric acid in Guangxi: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5000-5400

In Beijing and Tianjin area, the content of Pu is 85% industrial grade, 4700-5600

Yellow phosphorus, domestic yellow phosphorus market price is basically stable this week, slightly lower than last week. At present, there are few new orders in the market, and the enterprises mainly make orders in the early stage, and the delivery volume before the festival is also very small. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16300-16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

For phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market is generally stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The price of 28% low-grade phosphate rock in Guizhou Province is around 300-330 yuan / ton. Compared with a week ago, the price fluctuates little, the market atmosphere is general, and the orders are mainly in the early stage of delivery.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been stable recently, and the cost support is still in progress. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of downstream products before the year is coming to an end. In addition, the logistics is limited, and the demand is reduced, so the phosphoric acid market is gradually weakening. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will maintain a stable operation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market price has been fluctuating upward in the past week. As of January 28, the average ex factory price of domestic spandex was 46300 yuan / ton, up 6.44% from January 21 and 45.14% year on year. The start-up of the industry is around 90%, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, the terminal market is gradually on holiday, the market is tight and the price is high, so we should wait and see carefully.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang: 51000-54000-50000-52000-42000-45000

Shandong Province: 52000-55000 50000-5300 42000-46500

Fujian Province 52000-55000 50000-53000 42000-46500

Jiangsu 51000-54000-50000-52000-41000-44000

In recent years, the price of PTMEG in the raw material market has been running upward, the support of cost has been strengthened, the inventory of PTMEG factory has no pressure, the orders are received smoothly, and the price intention is strong. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight source is 19500-20500 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is 19500-20000 yuan / ton. The start-up of the industry is maintained at around 80%. Specifically, among the 40000 ton plants in Yizheng Dalian, the 60000 ton plant in Panjin Changchun is not in high operation load, and the 46000 ton plant in Chongqing Chiyuan chemical is about 70%.

Pure MDI market wait-and-see arrangement is the main, and the stock preparation is basically completed near the holiday downstream. Most of the goods holders have cleared their positions and held the goods. Sporadic offers are stable, and the trading atmosphere is weak. Refer to 22500-23500 yuan / T T telegraphic transfer in barrels, and the actual order negotiation shall prevail. In January 2021, the listing price of pure MDI barrels of Wanhua chemical was 24000 yuan / ton, which was 4000 yuan / ton lower than that in December 2020. In December 2020, the settlement price was 23500 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton month on month.

The terminal textile factory gradually finished the finishing of the holiday, and had a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the raw materials. The market trading atmosphere was flat, and part of the early orders had not yet been handed over. Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms have now dropped to about 60%, with 30-40% of the round looms and 40-60% of the warp knitting looms in operation, which are running light. In the traditional textile market, there is still a drop in the spot subscription of the north and South merchants in winter, and the order undertaking is relatively limited, and the overall market turnover is lower than that in the earlier period.

Business analysts believe that at present, the price of spandex market is strong, the support of upstream cost side is increasing, the supply tension of spandex factory has not been eased, and the holiday atmosphere in the terminal market is relatively strong. All parties hold a market-oriented attitude, and it is expected that the short-term spandex market will fluctuate and adjust at a high level.