1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose this week, and the price trend of North and South was divided. On April 11, the price of toluene was 5452 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 18), the price was 5641 yuan / ton, up 189 yuan / ton or 3.47% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 100 / + 250 (yuan / ton). Toluene inventories at ports in East China rose this week. This week, the toluene Market in Shandong Province was driven by the continuous rise of gasoline, the market became warmer and the price rose. In addition, the strong crude oil provides favorable support, and the East China market has a strong bullish mentality. Due to the sales pressure in South China, the price is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $707 / T, up by US $27 / T or 3.97% on April 9, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $730 / T, up by US $27 / T or 3.84% on April 9.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news was positive and the price rose. Good news: IEA and OPEC increase global crude oil demand, US commercial crude oil inventory decreases continuously, and refinery operation rate increases; bad news: OPEC + decides to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places is severe. On April 9, Brent rose $3.64/barrel, or 5.85%; WTI rose $3.84/barrel, or 6.47%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China stopped falling and turned to rising this week. The price of domestic goods was 16333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.51% over last week and 64.43% over the same period last year. The domestic market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, the inquiry enthusiasm is not high, just need to purchase.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was the same as last week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The price trend of domestic PX market is stable, the operating rate is more than 60%, there are more overhauls of overseas units, and the price trend of domestic PX remains high. As of April 16, closing prices in Asia were $838-840 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil still has upward momentum, with better cost support. However, the speculation brought about by the continuous rise of gasoline is limited, and the downstream demand has not changed significantly. Coupled with the restart of some maintenance units, toluene market supply is expected to increase. Overall, toluene may maintain a weak and stable trend next week. Focus on the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash has been running steadily this week. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China was 1752 yuan / ton, up 18.38% from last year. On April 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.77% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business club, soda ash in East China has been operating steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the price of downstream glass may play a leading role in soda. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda is mainly consolidated. The total amount of soda ash inventory is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Some data show that the overall inventory of domestic soda ash is about 870000 tons, and now most of the orders are executed in the early stage.

Upstream and demand: upstream: the national raw salt market is mainly stable, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. The rising price of downstream glass supports the price of soda ash, or stimulates the demand for soda ash. However, the downstream glass is now in a wait-and-see state for high price alkali, and its acceptance is not high. The buyer and the seller still play a price game.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 14th week of 2021 (4.5-4.9), the price of chlor alkali industry increased by 1 commodity, decreased by 2 commodities, and decreased by 0 commodity. The main commodities rising were PVC (1.49%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.76%) and caustic soda (- 4.59%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.57%.

Business analysts believe that: the glass market price rise or pull the demand for raw material soda, downstream glass price rise, good soda, soda price support, but there is still resistance to high price soda, wait-and-see mentality is strong, and more on-demand procurement. According to the comprehensive forecast, the short-term domestic soda price mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of April 14, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas in China was around 470 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on April 6. Compared with April 1 (average reference price of phosphate rock was 446 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 24 yuan / ton, or 5.22%; compared with March 1 (average reference price of phosphate rock was 423 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 47 yuan / ton, or 11% .02%.

After the price rise, the domestic phosphorus ore market maintains a high and stable operation

From 20201 to now, China’s phosphorus ore market as a whole has been rising steadily. In the early spring festival, the recovery of domestic phosphorus ore market is still relatively slow. The accelerated recovery of phosphorus ore market is mainly reflected in the spring. After the arrival of spring planting season, the recovery of downstream terminal market provides strong support for phosphorus ore. from March to now, the domestic phosphorus ore market has raised the market price of phosphorus ore three times The most recent market price increase was after the Qingming Festival. On April 6, the main phosphorus ore producing areas in China, such as Guizhou, Guangxi and Hebei North, all increased their market prices in different ranges, with an overall increase range of 10-40 yuan / ton.

At present, as of the 14th, a week has passed since the latest price increase. The domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole has maintained a high and stable operation. It is heard that the mine has the idea of continuing to move towards the high end for the actual price of the new order. At present, the price of 30% grade ammonium phosphate ore in Guizhou is around 400-440 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade ammonium phosphate ore in railway station is 200-240 yuan / ton The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate ore in North China is about 570-600 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore in Guangxi is about 350-380 yuan / ton.

After the Qingming Festival, the market of the downstream product monoammonium phosphate was temporarily stable, and the domestic price remained unchanged. The price remained high and firm, the operating rate dropped, and the business owners issued early orders. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 2400-2550 yuan / ton, and that of 58% powdered ammonium is 2550-2650 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction atmosphere of monoammonium phosphate is general, and the lower reaches purchase on demand, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Downstream DAP, after the festival DAP deadlocked operation, mainly exports, the domestic market is weak. This week, the maintenance of some enterprises’ devices was completed, and the operating rate was slightly improved. Spring ploughing is coming to an end, and there are many enterprises waiting to go. At present, 64% of the domestic mainstream of diammonium factory offer 3100-3200 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations. The domestic market is flat and the export market is active.

It is expected that the phosphorus ore will continue to be strong and stable in the short term

Before May Day, traders of downstream Yellow Phosphorus and other products are likely to prepare goods before May Day, so the downstream purchasing volume will increase. Therefore, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is smooth, and the inquiry atmosphere will continue to be good in the short term. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market can continue to be strong and stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 13, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 28400 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 833 yuan / ton, or 2.85%, compared with the price on April 1 (29233 yuan / ton).

In mid March, the domestic market price of silicone DMC once exceeded the 30000 yuan / ton mark. Before that, the ex factory quotation of a large silicone DMC factory in Shandong rose to 30200 yuan / ton, causing an uproar in the market. However, the game between supply and demand immediately appeared at a high level. The market price of silicone DMC dropped rapidly for several days. Near the end of the month, the market decline stopped temporarily, and the price callback was around 29000 yuan / ton.

After the Qingming Festival, the factory price of silicone DMC dropped continuously, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood became increasingly strong

In April, a few days before the Qingming Festival, the overall trend of the domestic silicone DMC market did not change much, but returned after the festival. On the 6th, Shandong’s last big manufacturers reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC by 600 yuan / ton, and the low-end quotation of silicone DMC fell to 28600 yuan / ton. Most of the other manufacturers maintained a temporary stable quotation, and some manufacturers continued to seal the market, so the market continued to be stable We are in a strong mood, and the number of new orders from manufacturers has decreased compared with the previous period.

Entering this week, on Monday (12th), Luxi Chemical, a large factory in Shandong Province, once again sharply reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC. At present, the ex factory price of silicone DMC in this factory has dropped to 26400 yuan / ton, which is 2200 yuan / ton lower than the price after the festival. The price of other factories is still stable, and the price of individual factories is reduced by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, as of December 12, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC is around 26400-29500 yuan / ton, the average price is 28400 yuan / ton, and some high-end offers are 29800 yuan / ton.

What’s the future of silicone industry?

At present, after Dachang cliff type falls Although most of the other manufacturers did not keep up with the price drop of large manufacturers, the sharp drop in this round still severely damaged the confidence of the industry. In addition, the downstream orders have decreased recently, the overall demand has weakened, and the wait-and-see mood in the market is more intense. For the future trend of silicone DMC, the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude, worried about the future trend of silicone DMC, and the inner mentality of the industry is different. According to the analysts of silicone DMC of business news agency, there is no strength to break through the short-term silicone DMC, but most factories can still maintain stable quotation with the support of early orders. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of silicone DMC in the short term will mainly maintain stable operation.

On April 12, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) was lowered. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13291.67 yuan / ton on April 12, a decrease of 2.57% compared with the average market price of 13641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of April (4.1).

On December 12, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12700-12900 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13100-13300 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13000-13200 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 13800-14000 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu is 13300-13500 yuan / ton .

Today, the silicon price of the port generally fell, with a drop of 150-200 yuan / ton. At present, the silicon price fell mainly based on two factors.

First, the south is expected to have abundant water, and the Southwest has a high operating rate, so the current market supply is relatively sufficient. Although the social inventory of silicon metal in the three places is slightly lower than that at the beginning of this month, with a range of about 7000 tons, the overall supply and demand is expected, and the market expects a larger increase in the supply side.

Second, after a wave of soaring prices in the downstream market, terminal consumption is under pressure, and the driving force of silicon metal based on the demand side is weakened.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of April 9, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10900.00 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market price rose steadily and continued the stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price rose by 0.31%, and compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 5.83%.

This week, the domestic DMF market was stable and on the upper side, the market price maintained the early trend, the trend of big stability and small movement, and some enterprises’ centralized maintenance was recovering in succession. Henan Junhua is expected to recover in May, Shaanxi Xinghua’s start-up is low, the upstream methanol transaction atmosphere is general and weak, some enterprises’ prices are down, and the cost support of DMF is weak. The current reference price of DMF is 11450-11600 yuan / ton in East China market, South China market 11700-11800 yuan / ton, up

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: it is expected that DMF will run stably in the short term, maintain the early trend, lack of momentum, no pressure on inventory, the overall market supply and demand balance, and the fluctuation range is limited. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

Recently, the domestic ethanol market has been in a narrow decline, and the performance of the markets in different regions is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, as of April 7, the price of domestic ethanol market was 6912 yuan / ton, with the price falling 4.82% on a month-on-year basis, and the price rose 32.61% year on year.

In terms of market conditions in various regions, the ethanol market in Henan and East China is weak; the ethanol market in Northeast China is stable; the ethanol market in Dongguan continues to decline; the ethanol market in Guangxi is stable; the ethanol market in Yunnan is stable.

From the aspect of raw materials, from the perspective of raw materials, corn price range fluctuates. Recently, the policy-based regulation and control efforts have been constantly upgraded. At the end of March, the state has extended the period of storage of rice for directional auction. At the beginning of April, relevant departments revised the auction and trading rules of entrusted wheat again, limiting the participation of feed and flour enterprises in the auction, and can only be used by themselves and not monopolized. From the perspective of demand, the domestic market of ethyl acetate rose. The downstream goods prepared before the downstream Festival digested the stock in the site smoothly last week, with the recent increase of raw acid significantly, the market of ethyl acetate and demand support strong, and the manufacturers adjusted the price of offer to rise successively.

The latest price trends of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

General level 6900-7000 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

Superior level in Henan Province 7180-7250 yuan / ton tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province 7800-7950 yuan / ton tax

Hebei Province general level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

No water in coal in Hebei Province 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Corn alcohol general grade in Heilongjiang Province RMB 6650-6800 / ton tax

General alcohol in Jilin Province rmb6650 / ton tax

Shandong Province general level 6750-6800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province corn superior grade RMB 7500 / T

No water in corn in Shandong Province 7750-7800 yuan / ton

General class of South Jiangsu Province 6900 yuan / ton

North Jiangsu Province: general level: 6850 yuan / ton

General corn grade in Anhui Province is about 7150-7200 yuan / ton

General cassava grade in Anhui Province is about 6900-7000 yuan / ton

Anhydrous water in Anhui Province is about RMB 7850-7900 / ton

Guangxi area honey alcohol 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi area 6800-7050 yuan / ton

Anhydrous ethanol in Guangxi area 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangdong Province is about 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province is about 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Corn alcohol in Sichuan Province is about 7900-8100 yuan / ton with tax

Molasses alcohol in Yunnan Province is about 7050 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Yunnan Province is about 6950 yuan / ton

Corn price consolidation and operation, in the short term, there is no possibility of rising downstream demand, market supply and demand imbalance. Ethanol analysts of business agencies expect that in the short term, corn ethanol is weak.

In March, the market price of NBR was stable after soaring. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of NBR was 19900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, rising all the way to 22950 yuan / ton, the highest point of the month. The price of NBR was mainly stable in late March. Overall, the end of the month increased by 15.33% compared with the beginning of the month.

In March, the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile increased by about 2700 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 31, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 19600 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 21200 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 21600 yuan / ton; as of March 31, Sinopec xibuer 2665 reported 20200 yuan / ton, and 3365 reported 20600 yuan / ton. In March, the nitrile manufacturers started operation stably and the inventory was low. At the beginning of this month, the downstream product enterprises started to recover gradually after the Spring Festival, the demand for goods preparation increased, and the demand side support was strong; at the later stage, the demand side support was mainly just demand support, and the demand side support was weakened. The high price of nitrile also made the upstream and downstream slightly deadlocked, and the market price gradually stabilized. As of the end of the month, the market offer of Lanhua n41 was around 19800-20000 yuan / ton, South Korea lg6250 was around 22000 yuan / ton, Russia 3365 was around 19700-20000 yuan / ton, and Nandi 1052 was around 24000-24500 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials is stable and weak, and the cost side is empty. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of butadiene was 8368 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7860 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decrease of 6.08%.

Future forecast: NBR business analysts believe that the overall pressure on the supply side of NBR is not big, but on the one hand, the international crude oil is weak and volatile, and there is a downward risk on the cost side. In addition, the downstream procurement of NBR is not strong, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. It is expected that NBR will be weak and fall slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market was strong and stable after rising. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 31, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 75000 yuan / ton, up 15.98% compared with March 1, 44.23% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and 31.58% compared with the same period last year.

In the first half of March, the cost support was strong, the spot supply was tight, the downstream enterprises actively inquired, and the demand side performance was fair, which boosted the mentality of manufacturers. The enterprise’s low price shipping intention was not strong, and the market atmosphere was strong. The average price of the enterprise rose to 75000 yuan / ton. In the second half of March, the enterprise mainly delivered early orders, the downstream demand was relatively stable, and the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was high Stable operation.

In March 2021, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to rise steadily. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of March 31, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86800 yuan / ton, which was 11.86% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 77600 yuan / ton on March 1). On March 31, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, which increased by 9.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of March (the average price of carbon in East China was 82800 yuan / ton).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in March 2021, there were 56 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 33 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 35.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were chloroform (23.76%), organosilicon DMC (23.52%) and aniline (21.56%). There were 33 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 20 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products with a decrease were phthalic anhydride (- 23.34%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 23.13%) and isooctanol (- 22.15%). The average rise and fall this month was 2.07%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of lithium hydroxide from business news agency believe that in April, the upstream lithium carbonate market is mainly stable, and the demand side is relatively stable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may be mainly stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite decreased slightly in March. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2738.89 yuan / ton, 0.80% lower than 2761.11 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 16.16% lower than the same period last year.

In March, the price trend of fluorite dropped slightly. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was general, the shipping situation of the merchants on the floor was normal, the supply of fluorite on the floor increased, and the price trend of fluorite on the floor dropped slightly. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably. The start-up of mines and flotation units in the fluorite yard has increased. The delivery of fluorite in the fluorite yard is general, and the fluorite market price has declined. In March, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, and the terminal downstream was mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / T, the mainstream negotiation of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / T, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan / T, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / T Slightly down.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite rose slightly. By the end of the month, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10622.22 yuan / ton, up 0.0% in March. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remained high, which had a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite did not decline much. The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 15500-17000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers reduced load operation, which supported R134a price rising. At present, the follow-up of the demand side is insufficient, the demand of the car market is not good, and the transaction of the high price R134a new order is general, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the lower refrigerant market is improving, the fluorite price trend is supported, and the fluorite price remains high.

Overall, the market of downstream refrigerant industry has improved slightly. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has remained high recently, but the supply of fluorite has increased. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of fluorite may fall slightly in the short term.