According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 27, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 16975.00 yuan / ton, the overall market maintained a stable operation, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintained about 17000 yuan / ton, the focus of negotiation was stable, the downstream just needed procurement, and maintained a stable trend in the short term.

Domestic PMMA operates smoothly with general transaction atmosphere. The downstream just needs to purchase and the negotiation atmosphere is flat. Some manufacturers supply tight spot goods. The upstream MMA operates smoothly with just needs to purchase and real orders and real negotiations.

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that PMMA market will be sorted and operated in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

According to the data of business agency, as of July 25, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4800.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.10% from 4795.00 yuan / ton on July 19.

On July 25, the fuel oil commodity index was 97.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.12% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 110.98% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The decline of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of July 25, the quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil for low sulfur in Zhoushan area was 4700 yuan / ton and 4800 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5000 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price rebounds after falling, and the news of OPEC + production increase will be gradually digested. With the economic recovery, the optimistic prospect of international energy demand or supporting crude oil shows a strong and volatile trend, the international crude oil price may remain high, and the international crude oil will continue to rise under great pressure.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 21, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 1.346 million barrels, rising to a six week high of 24.434 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent shock and rebound in crude oil prices, light trading in the domestic ship fuel market, limited ship refueling business in some areas due to rainfall and typhoon, weak terminal shipping demand and great upward resistance. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1025 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1062.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year increase of 83.9%. On July 22, the thermal coal commodity index was 126.81, the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 183.69% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of origin: in terms of origin, coal mines around the country have resumed production one after another, and the power coal supply has increased. However, due to the coal mine accident in Yulin recently, the power coal supply is still tight due to the impact of safety inspection.

Downstream power plants: due to the impact of summer to meet the peak, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, and the coal inventory of the power plant remains low. Data show that the average daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is about 2.2 million tons, and the number of days available for inventory is reduced to about 8 days. Due to rainfall, the coal transportation channel was damaged to varying degrees, which affected the coal transportation to a certain extent, and the coal transfer in volume of the port decreased.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in June, China imported 12.322 million tons of thermal coal (including bituminous coal and other bituminous coal), a year-on-year increase of 7.34% and a month-on-month increase of 31.65%. From January to June, China imported 59.467 million tons of thermal coal, down 21.2% from 75.467 million tons in the same period last year. In June, China imported 11.109 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year increase of 57.7% and a month on month increase of 48.1%. From January to June, China imported 53.533 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04%.

Analysts of business society believe that the supply guarantee policy is frequent and the power coal supply side is tight. Due to the weather in the downstream, the daily consumption of the power plant increases and the inventory is low. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage of power coal. It is comprehensively expected that the price of power coal in the later stage is still strong and mainly depends on the demand of the downstream market.

On July 21, the price of spandex was 78200 yuan / ton, up 15.68% from three months ago, and 2800 yuan / ton, up 3.71% from the beginning of the month. Since July, the overall trend of spandex has been on the rise. In the middle of July, the price of spandex has decreased slightly, but after that, the price of spandex has recovered rapidly. At present, the spandex market remains high, the performance of cost side support is acceptable, the spot supply is tight, the manufacturers continue to hand over orders, and the new orders are temporarily not received, so the overall market demand cannot be alleviated.

The price rise of spandex is mainly due to raw materials. On July 2, kostrong issued a letter to announce that its 420000t / a MDI plant in brunsbit, Germany, will take effect from now on. It is reported that the MDI device was shut down for routine maintenance and preparation of the device from August to September. The reason for the shutdown was due to an unexpected failure of the production system. It is uncertain how long this situation will last, but it is expected to lead to a significant delay in the delivery of all MDI products.

In addition to the rise in raw materials, the rebound in demand is an important reason for the rise in spandex prices. In terms of demand, the export volume of spandex from January to May increased by about 58% over the same period last year. In addition, after the epidemic, people pay more attention to sports and health, and the downstream demand for comfortable fabrics, especially yoga clothes and sportswear is increasing. Benefited from this, the proportion of spandex application increased, ordinary sportswear spandex accounted for 10% ~ 20%, some even up to 30%. In addition, in the near future, the lower reaches are also preparing for autumn fabrics.

Affected by the surge of spandex, a large number of counterfeit spandex appeared in the market recently. Xinxiang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. issued a solemn statement on the recent appearance of counterfeit egret Spandex Products in the market. The quality of egret Spandex Products has prominent advantages in the industry and has been widely praised by the industry and sought after by customers, the article said. But some time ago, it was found that a number of spandex products were produced and sold illegally under the brand of “Egret”. Egret spandex produced by the company is produced in Xinxiang, Henan Province, and there is no production branch or entrusted factory. Please purchase egret Spandex Products from Xinxiang Chemical fiber spandex marketing department or official cooperative dealers to avoid unnecessary losses. The loss caused by customers purchasing products in informal channels has nothing to do with our company.

Business analysts believe that since 2021 / 4 / 18, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started the upward trend. At present, the two moving average continue to move upward. According to the calculation of 2021 / 7 / 18, the probability of changing the operation situation in the next seven days (that is, the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average) is only 5.18%.

DOP price reaches its peak again

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, DOP prices in July changed from the downward trend in late June, DOP prices rose sharply, and DOP market went on the “roller coaster” again. As of July 19, the DOP price was 14412.50 yuan / ton, up 8.36% from 13300.00 yuan / ton on July 1. On July 19, the DOP commodity index was 103.99, up 3.52 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 152.83% from the lowest point of 41.13 on April 7, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). DOP prices hit the peak again, DOP market rose strongly.

Raw material prices rise again

It can be seen from the price trend chart of ISO octanol that the market of ISO octanol in July failed to continue the downward trend in late June, the market of ISO octanol rebounded and rose sharply in July, the price of ISO octanol rose by 11% in July, the cost of DOP rose sharply in July, the profit of DOP decreased, and the rising power of DOP increased in the future. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the commodity index of ISO octanol on July 19 was 126.72, up 8.09 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 260.51% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of isooctanol set a record, which stimulated the price of DOP to rise sharply.

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fluctuate and rise in late June. The price of phthalic anhydride rose all the way in July, up 1.4%, and the momentum of DOP increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that the DOP price of plasticizer and the price of raw material isooctanol both set historical records in the cycle, and the rising price of raw material stimulates the market of plasticizer all the way up. As the price of plasticizer continues to rise, the rebound of cost pressure of downstream customers increases, the rising power of plasticizer in the future weakens, and the downward pressure increases. In terms of raw materials, the short-term price of isooctanol is expected to stabilize with the recovery of operating rate, and the support of raw materials to the rise of DOP is weakened. Generally speaking, DOP’s rising trend slowed down in the future, DOP’s price rose slightly in the short term, and DOP’s price peaked and fell in the long term. 15000 yuan / ton is expected to be a ceiling of DOP.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fluctuated little this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6433.33 yuan / ton last Friday, and 6416.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 0.26% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from May to July

Isopropanol prices fluctuated little this week. Internationally, the closing price of isopropanol in the United States was stable on July 13, while the European market closed down. Up to now, the quotation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 6150-6400 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu Province is about 6350-6450 yuan / ton. The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is 6350-6400 yuan / ton. The domestic raw material acetone market continued to maintain a weak operation, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, the on-site inquiry was general, and the on-site trading of isopropanol was short.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market continued to maintain a weak operation. The downstream terminal factories were very limited in replenishment. The trading atmosphere was tepid and tepid. The atmosphere of on-site negotiations was general. The attitude of the cargo holders was under pressure. The offer was slightly revised. Most downstream enterprises were just in need, and the trading volume did not significantly improve. East China negotiated to 5000-5100 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the market will maintain the current trend today, and the East China market is expected to negotiate about 5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, the price of propylene market decreased this week. The average domestic propylene price was 7796.73 yuan / ton last Friday and 7654.91 yuan / ton this Friday. The price was reduced by 1.82% within the week. International crude oil prices fall, bad market mentality. Downstream factories have light demand for raw materials, cautious trading and short trading in the yard.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are general. The price of propylene fell due to the weak operation of acetone. The supply of spot goods is sufficient, and the pressure of factory delivery is not small. The competition of Shandong factory is relatively fierce, and the delivery pressure of the goods holder is large. The lower reaches are mainly wait-and-see, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is light, and the price is relatively stalemate. It is expected that isopropanol will be mainly consolidated at low level in the short term.

The market of NBR rose slightly this week (7.12-7.16). According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of NBR was 21100 yuan / ton as of July 16, a slight increase of 0.64% compared with the price of 20966 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The factory price of NBR in China has been increased. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of July 16, the factory price of NBR n41e of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was 19200 yuan / ton; 3305e report 20300 yuan / ton; 3308e reported 21200 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze 6500 T / a unit is in normal operation, with a large inventory of manufacturers. The factory price of nitrile 3355/3365 is 20800 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 3380 is 21300 yuan / ton. After July, high temperature weather has appeared in China, and power consumption peaks have appeared in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Henan. Some downstream enterprises started to start working and demand side support is weak.

The price of butadiene raw materials has risen greatly, and the cost side is more supported. According to the business agency, the price of butadiene as of July 16 was 10876 yuan / ton, up 13.58% from 9576 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Post market forecast: the NBR analyst of business agency thinks that the demand side support is weak, but the cost side support is strong, and the NBR market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

This week (7.5-9), the domestic liquid ammonia market had little change compared with last week, and the market price was generally stable. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia was 0.38%. After entering July, the price of liquid ammonia remained high. This week, the liquid ammonia manufacturers generally reported stability. Affected by the devices in some areas, the price rose slightly. With the resumption of some maintenance devices, the market supply increased, the shortage of supply in most parts of the country eased obviously, and the liquid ammonia market also stopped rising and stabilized.

This week, the atmosphere of domestic liquid ammonia market was acceptable, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable. This week, the amount of ammonia in this region was moderate, and the enterprises were shipping normally. Due to the low output of the device, the price of some enterprises rose slightly, but the range was not large, about 50 yuan / ton. At present, inventory pressure is general, most manufacturers reported stable, weekend market prices remain at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price in this area is 4250-4400 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of urea and profit driven, the liquid ammonia discharged by manufacturers in this area is still on the low side, and the price is expected to be stable in the near future..

The price of liquid ammonia in Hebei also remained stable, with little change over the weekend compared with that at the beginning of the week. At present, the pressure on the supply and inventory of goods in this region is general, and the quotations of large factories remained stable throughout the week. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the mainstream price in this area is 4200-4300 yuan / ton. At present, the production of liquid ammonia by the manufacturer is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is not big. It is expected that the price will stabilize at a high level in the near future.

In the future, most of the domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers are stable, and the ammonia volume has slightly increased compared with the previous period, but it is still in a controllable range. It is estimated that there may be little upward space in the near future. However, due to the continuous strength of urea and the export boost by printing standard, there is no downward space for the price of liquid ammonia, and it is expected to maintain a high level and narrow range adjustment

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 12, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 550 yuan / ton, which was increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 3.77%, compared with July 11 (530 yuan / ton); Compared with the price on June 1 (reference average price of phosphate rock 510 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 40 yuan / ton, or 7.84%.

In the first ten days of July, China’s phosphorus ore market was in a high level, and the supply of mines in Guizhou was tight. The phosphate rock industry expected that the price of phosphate rock would continue to move towards the high end. On July 12, Guizhou phosphate rock enterprises took the lead in raising the initial and high-end grade price of phosphate rock by 20-50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the reference price of 30% grade in Guizhou is 490-510 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade in Guizhou is 440-470 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 550 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous working day, the one-day increase was 3.77%. At present, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is still tight, some mining enterprises in Guizhou are in a state of shortage, and the overall market quotation is high and firm. As of July 12, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is about 510-530 yuan / ton. Compared with early July, the market price of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also been increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in Guangxi is around 430-470 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 470-510 yuan / ton. The overall phosphorus ore market is running at a high level.

At present, the yellow phosphorus market is weak. After the electric furnace is opened in Yunnan, the output is gradually increasing. At present, the market turnover is around 18800-19000 yuan / ton.

At present, since July, the domestic phosphoric acid market has maintained a stable consolidation operation, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

In July, after the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply at the end of June, the market price of monoammonium phosphate continues to be high and stable.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

It has been heard that the recent power rationing in Yunnan may lead to the price rise of yellow phosphorus market. If the downstream market goes up and the supply of phosphorus ore is tight, the phosphorus ore analysts of business association predict that in the short term, the market price of phosphorus ore in China will continue to be high and firm.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic vitamin C price is temporarily stable this week, with the average price stable at 50.67 yuan / kg, without any rise or fall.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price map of the business agency, the domestic vitamin C market shows strong and weak trend. The current mainstream quotation is 48-50 yuan / kg. In July, the factory continued to stop reporting and market attention increased. Traders are active in goods and the actual transaction price is mainly discussed. The price of corn in the upstream is still weak, and the demand of downstream is generally.

The mainstream price of vitamin A this week is 310-325 yuan / kg. The factory stops reporting, and the traders are shipping actively. The new and VA oil plant is scheduled to start maintenance for 10 weeks in early July. This week VA market price is high, downstream on demand procurement, market investment is still acceptable.

The mainstream price of vitamin E this week is 78-80 yuan / kg, the purchase and sale in the site is light, the supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers have maintenance plan. Downstream demand is general, traders are keen on goods, ve prices are down slightly.

3、 Future forecast

The vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: in a comprehensive view, the current vitamin market supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the vitamin market will be sorted and operated in the near future.