The market of NBR rose slightly this week (7.12-7.16). According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of NBR was 21100 yuan / ton as of July 16, a slight increase of 0.64% compared with the price of 20966 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The factory price of NBR in China has been increased. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of July 16, the factory price of NBR n41e of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was 19200 yuan / ton; 3305e report 20300 yuan / ton; 3308e reported 21200 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze 6500 T / a unit is in normal operation, with a large inventory of manufacturers. The factory price of nitrile 3355/3365 is 20800 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 3380 is 21300 yuan / ton. After July, high temperature weather has appeared in China, and power consumption peaks have appeared in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Henan. Some downstream enterprises started to start working and demand side support is weak.

The price of butadiene raw materials has risen greatly, and the cost side is more supported. According to the business agency, the price of butadiene as of July 16 was 10876 yuan / ton, up 13.58% from 9576 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Post market forecast: the NBR analyst of business agency thinks that the demand side support is weak, but the cost side support is strong, and the NBR market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

This week (7.5-9), the domestic liquid ammonia market had little change compared with last week, and the market price was generally stable. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia was 0.38%. After entering July, the price of liquid ammonia remained high. This week, the liquid ammonia manufacturers generally reported stability. Affected by the devices in some areas, the price rose slightly. With the resumption of some maintenance devices, the market supply increased, the shortage of supply in most parts of the country eased obviously, and the liquid ammonia market also stopped rising and stabilized.

This week, the atmosphere of domestic liquid ammonia market was acceptable, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable. This week, the amount of ammonia in this region was moderate, and the enterprises were shipping normally. Due to the low output of the device, the price of some enterprises rose slightly, but the range was not large, about 50 yuan / ton. At present, inventory pressure is general, most manufacturers reported stable, weekend market prices remain at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price in this area is 4250-4400 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of urea and profit driven, the liquid ammonia discharged by manufacturers in this area is still on the low side, and the price is expected to be stable in the near future..

The price of liquid ammonia in Hebei also remained stable, with little change over the weekend compared with that at the beginning of the week. At present, the pressure on the supply and inventory of goods in this region is general, and the quotations of large factories remained stable throughout the week. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the mainstream price in this area is 4200-4300 yuan / ton. At present, the production of liquid ammonia by the manufacturer is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is not big. It is expected that the price will stabilize at a high level in the near future.

In the future, most of the domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers are stable, and the ammonia volume has slightly increased compared with the previous period, but it is still in a controllable range. It is estimated that there may be little upward space in the near future. However, due to the continuous strength of urea and the export boost by printing standard, there is no downward space for the price of liquid ammonia, and it is expected to maintain a high level and narrow range adjustment

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 12, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 550 yuan / ton, which was increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 3.77%, compared with July 11 (530 yuan / ton); Compared with the price on June 1 (reference average price of phosphate rock 510 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 40 yuan / ton, or 7.84%.

In the first ten days of July, China’s phosphorus ore market was in a high level, and the supply of mines in Guizhou was tight. The phosphate rock industry expected that the price of phosphate rock would continue to move towards the high end. On July 12, Guizhou phosphate rock enterprises took the lead in raising the initial and high-end grade price of phosphate rock by 20-50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the reference price of 30% grade in Guizhou is 490-510 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade in Guizhou is 440-470 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 550 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous working day, the one-day increase was 3.77%. At present, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is still tight, some mining enterprises in Guizhou are in a state of shortage, and the overall market quotation is high and firm. As of July 12, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is about 510-530 yuan / ton. Compared with early July, the market price of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also been increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in Guangxi is around 430-470 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 470-510 yuan / ton. The overall phosphorus ore market is running at a high level.

At present, the yellow phosphorus market is weak. After the electric furnace is opened in Yunnan, the output is gradually increasing. At present, the market turnover is around 18800-19000 yuan / ton.

At present, since July, the domestic phosphoric acid market has maintained a stable consolidation operation, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

In July, after the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply at the end of June, the market price of monoammonium phosphate continues to be high and stable.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

It has been heard that the recent power rationing in Yunnan may lead to the price rise of yellow phosphorus market. If the downstream market goes up and the supply of phosphorus ore is tight, the phosphorus ore analysts of business association predict that in the short term, the market price of phosphorus ore in China will continue to be high and firm.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic vitamin C price is temporarily stable this week, with the average price stable at 50.67 yuan / kg, without any rise or fall.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price map of the business agency, the domestic vitamin C market shows strong and weak trend. The current mainstream quotation is 48-50 yuan / kg. In July, the factory continued to stop reporting and market attention increased. Traders are active in goods and the actual transaction price is mainly discussed. The price of corn in the upstream is still weak, and the demand of downstream is generally.

The mainstream price of vitamin A this week is 310-325 yuan / kg. The factory stops reporting, and the traders are shipping actively. The new and VA oil plant is scheduled to start maintenance for 10 weeks in early July. This week VA market price is high, downstream on demand procurement, market investment is still acceptable.

The mainstream price of vitamin E this week is 78-80 yuan / kg, the purchase and sale in the site is light, the supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers have maintenance plan. Downstream demand is general, traders are keen on goods, ve prices are down slightly.

3、 Future forecast

The vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: in a comprehensive view, the current vitamin market supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the vitamin market will be sorted and operated in the near future.

The price of asphalt in some areas of Sinopec rose sharply. The price of asphalt in Shandong increased by 100 yuan / ton, and that in South China increased by 50 yuan / ton, which led to a narrow upward trend in the domestic asphalt market. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 7, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 34601 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 5.49% and a year-on-year increase of 41.95%.

On July 7, the main contract 2109 of petroleum asphalt futures opened and closed at 3416 yuan / ton, down 4.21%. The sharp decline of international crude oil led to the downward trend of asphalt futures. The enthusiasm of some current companies to sell their sources of goods has increased. The downstream receiving strength is not strong, and the price of asphalt futures is mainly adjusted in a weak way.

Some refineries started to reduce the load to drive the supply downward, the overall resource concentration is slightly higher, the market low-cost resources are limited, business community asphalt analysts predict that the asphalt spot market is mainly strong in the short term.

The dichloromethane market rose first and then fell in June. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of dichloromethane was 3840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3796 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Overall, the end of the month was 1.13% lower than the beginning of the month.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is low, and the cost support is weak. The lower price of methanol also formed a certain negative atmosphere for chloroform. According to the business news agency, as of the end of June, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was around 850 yuan / ton, down 58.54% from 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; Methanol price dropped from 2665 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2555 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 4.13%.

In summer, the start-up of downstream part of peak power consumption is reduced, and the downstream parts of film, diluent and foaming agent are purchased on demand, which weakens the support for dichloromethane.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the domestic dichloromethane market supply is sufficient, coupled with lower support weakened, it is expected that the price of dichloromethane will fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (July 5): 15700.00 yuan / ton

On July 5, the ex factory quotation of ISO octanol in Shandong increased by 166.67 yuan / ton, or 1.07%, compared with the quotation on July 2. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the cost support was good, the downstream DOP market also had an upward trend, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the octanol supply was tight.

In recent years, the factory price of octanol in Shandong may rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 16000 yuan / ton.

Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market fell mainly in June, and most brands of spot products fell. As of July 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 17700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a rise of 33.58% compared with the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic styrene price continued to decline in May, with weak supply and demand in the first and second half of the market and low trading momentum. It stopped falling and rebounded in the last ten days. Domestic factories and ports in Jiangsu Province were at a low level throughout the month, and good support from the supply side was acceptable. However, it is expected that the supply of styrene abroad, especially in the near ocean, will pick up, and the import volume is expected to gradually increase. At the end of the month, the average operating load of domestic styrene plants was about 80%, slightly lower than before. As for pure benzene, due to the unexpected production reduction of large-scale plants in East China and the delayed arrival of US dollar cargoes at the port, the inventory of pure benzene was low. The price of pure benzene rose mainly in June, and the price hit a new high in the year, which was good for the cost side of styrene. However, with the recent restart of styrene short-term shutdown unit and the commissioning of Gulei petrochemical, the supply has picked up, and the demand will continue to be weak in the off-season. It is expected that the price fluctuation of styrene will be weak in the later period.

Upstream butadiene: the domestic butadiene market continued the upward trend in June. The price of butadiene in China rose to a new high in the year, driven by the continued high rise of the external market. During the month, the delayed start-up of phase II plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the unexpected situation of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Quanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., as well as the supply side news such as domestic exports of goods all gave obvious support to the market. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, the terminal performance was not good. The butadiene market went up without the continuous support of downstream demand. In the middle and late ten days, with the butadiene industry reaching a high level, the transaction of some high price sources was gradually weak. In addition, affected by the policy, the downstream construction was not good at the end of the month, and the transportation in some areas was limited, the market trading was gradually weakening, and the market performance stopped rising and consolidation. Business community butadiene analysts expect that short-term domestic butadiene market high consolidation.

In June, the price of ABS cost side fluctuated, and the overall support for ABS cost side was acceptable. The domestic production units have the news of repair and resumption of work, and the supply is weak on the whole, but the benefit to the spot is not obvious. The continued weakness of ABS market in June and the negative trend of spot price are typical off-season market. Under the traditional off-season, the pattern of weak supply and demand of ABS is difficult to open, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is lower. Downstream enterprises are slow to follow up and tend to buy up but not down. The market as a whole is short and the offer is weak.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS spot market in June weak operation, raw materials, mixed trend, the cost of ABS support. The low market momentum in off-season is the main bad news in the market. Enterprises and businesses tend to give up profits and take orders. The actual trading is mainly small orders. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to be weak in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market fell in June, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of June 30, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 38650 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.90% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 104.05% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

Upstream adipic acid, June to undertake may domestic spot prices fell sharply. Enter this month, adipic acid Market horizontal stalemate operation. Under the influence of relatively weak demand, the price lost its direction. In terms of operating rate, the load of adipic acid enterprises has dropped in the month, but the enterprise inventory is high, the supply is under pressure, and the market is weak. In the early stage, enterprises reduced prices to arrange warehouses. Now the prices are basically back to the equilibrium point, and the prices are stable at 10000 yuan. It is estimated that the downward space is not large in the short term, and it may be weak and stable in the near future.

The raw material adipic acid was running horizontally, and the cost side support of PA66 was maintained. In June, the overall supply and demand of PA66 market was weak, and the characteristics of off-season market were prominent, and the spot price gradually rose downward. The overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry is still not high, and the load of some enterprises increased in the month. The support from the cost side and the supply side of the rubber and plastic industry is average. The overall market momentum is insufficient and the wait-and-see mentality is heavy in the off-season of the rubber and plastic industry. The merchants are flexible to negotiate with each other and the end users are slow to follow up. The resistance of high price source of goods is still large. Throughout the month, the market atmosphere was light, the market inquiries were limited, and the actual transactions were mostly small.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency said: in June, the domestic PA66 market was weak, and the profits of aggregation enterprises and end users were poor. At present, the industry is still affected by the traditional off-season, lack of consumption. Although there is a certain support of capacity loss in the market, the market atmosphere is weak and supply and demand are weak. It is expected that PA66 market will be easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride declined in June as a whole

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride offer as of June 30 was 9650.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.53% compared with 9800.00 yuan / ton on June 1.

On June 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 89.96, which was flat with yesterday, down 27.26% from the highest point 123.67 in the cycle (2017-12-26), up 75.77% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the market price of maleic anhydride fell as a whole, and the international crude oil rose, leading to the rise of domestic chemical prices, the lower unsaturated resin commencement rate, strong wait-and-see sentiment in the resin market, and the purchase was required. As of the 30th, the solid anhydrides in Shandong Province were about 9800 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Province was about 9700 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was about 9800 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province was about 9800 yuan / ton, and that of South China was about 9800 yuan / ton.

International crude oil fluctuated, international economy in multiple regions recovered gradually, vaccination in the United States continued to increase, US crude oil demand ushered in a peak season, the expectation of recovery of European and American demand boosted the crude oil market, and OPEC + alliance continued to adhere to the measures of gradually resuming supply in June-July, offsetting the risk of oil price support caused by the consensus reached in the negotiation of the US Iraq nuclear agreement.

At present, affected by environmental factors, the downstream unsaturated resin commencement rate is down, the resin market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is just to be purchased.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the overall operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises in June was about 80%, up from last month, most of the units started normally, and some of the early shutdown units had restart plans. At present, the price of hydrobenzene is high. As of June 30, the price of hydrogenated benzene in North China is 7950.00 yuan / ton, the profits of the enterprise have improved, and the production and sales are positive. The start-up and parking cost of hydrogenation benzene enterprises is lower than that of pure benzene, and most of the manufacturers are discharged according to the profit. The price of Shandong Province is 4200 yuan / ton for n-butane.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of the business society believe that: the international crude oil rose and the market cost of maleic anhydride was supported. Although the downstream resin demand continued to be weak, it was just needed to support, and the trend of maleic anhydride market price is expected to rise in the near future.