Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4716.67 yuan / ton on May 17 to 4733.33 yuan / ton on May 19, an increase of 0.35%, and then fell to 4700 yuan / ton on May 21, a decrease of 33.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.70%, a year-on-year increase of 91.06%. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 123.14 on May 21.

The upstream support is strong, the downstream maintenance is increased, and the procurement is reduced

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 4700 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping this weekend calcium carbide offer for 4700 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small materials this weekend is 1400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; At the end of this week, the quotation of Sinochem is 1400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week; The price of Dali is 1500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was strong, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation fell from 9250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9237.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.14%, up 54.47% year on year. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, coupled with the increase of PVC maintenance, the downstream of calcium carbide purchasing enthusiasm weakened, overall, this week’s PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Lower demand, the market fell slightly concussion

In late May, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. But downstream PVC maintenance increased, the market began to fall slightly. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in late May.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of domestic rare earth products has stopped falling and recovered, most of the prices of rare earth products are weak, and the prices of Heavy Rare Earth Terbium series and dysprosium series are rising. As of May 24, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.375 million yuan / ton; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.355 million yuan / ton, and that of dysprosium metal was 3.225 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rose. On the 24th, the domestic price of terbium oxide was 6.5 million yuan / ton, and that of metal terbium was 8.05 million yuan / ton.

The main reason for the price of domestic heavy rare earth market to stop falling and recover is that the contradiction between supply and demand has been eased.

On the supply side: the situation in Myanmar remains the same. The global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the continuous rise of heavy rare earth prices. In addition, the domestic production of heavy rare earth is normal, so it can be said that the domestic demand for heavy rare earth is weak. The domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for the domestic price of heavy rare earth. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of the annual output. Recently, the domestic market supply of heavy rare earth is still tight, and the price of heavy rare earth is supported to a certain extent, and the market price rebounds slightly.

Demand: the downstream demand is relatively normal, and the demand for new energy vehicles is still high. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile industry continued to maintain a good development trend in April, with the production and sales of 2.234 million and 2.252 million vehicles respectively, down 9.3% and 10.8% on a month on month basis, and up 6.3% and 8.6% on a year-on-year basis; The overall performance of new energy vehicle production and sales is still better than that of the industry, with monthly production and sales of more than 200000 vehicles. The downstream demand is fair, the demand gap of heavy rare earth has always existed, and the market price of medium and heavy rare earth has stopped falling and recovered.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on May 24 was 489 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 51.10% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and up 80.44% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The domestic rare earth index began to fall in mid March, and the domestic light rare earth market price is still at a low level recently. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry has also boosted the price of heavy rare earths to rise slightly. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. The downstream demand remains high, but in the early stage, the manufacturers are actively preparing goods, and the on-site inventory increases, which leads to the downstream procurement is not active, and the market price of light rare earth remains low.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, we will continue to control the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining, which is conducive to the green development of the domestic rare earth industry.

As the heat of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of Rare Earth continues to grow, it is expected to drive demand growth. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand. The domestic demand for rare earth remains at a high level, and the domestic supply of rare earth starts to work normally. However, the recent on-site transaction is poor and the procurement is not active, Chen Ling, an analyst at business news agency, predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may remain low in the short term, while the market price of dysprosium series may rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on May 21, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 1.27% on a month on month basis, and the price was the same as that at the same period last year. On May 21, the salicylic acid commodity index was 87.30, flat with yesterday, down 13.22% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.60 (2011-09-19), and up 22.22% from the lowest point of 71.43 on March 29, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market was stable, most of the enterprises shipped at a stable price, and individual enterprises increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, with a small range. The price of raw material phenol is high, the cost support is acceptable, and the domestic demand is steadily advancing, but the export is weak, the orders are reduced, and the delivery and investment are poor. The operators wait and see the market, and there is no price adjustment plan for the time being. Up to now, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 13000-15500 yuan / ton, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton. There is no obvious fluctuation in the quotations of salicylic acid at all levels.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol Market is running at a high price. The on-site negotiations are slightly flat, and the price of the carrier is low. The phenol market still maintains a strong momentum. The shipment is general, the market inquiry increases, but the actual orders are general. The terminal is mainly just need to follow up, and there is a little profit during the period. The business community expects that the domestic phenol market will advance smoothly today, The market negotiation is 9700-9800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency think: at present, the price of raw materials is stable, but it is still at a high level, and the cost support is strong. Salicylic acid enterprises are stable in price, and there is little change. It is expected that the market will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, the trend of domestic rare earth market price index continued to fall in the first half of May. The price of praseodymium and neodymium series rare earths in China fell sharply, while the price of heavy rare earths continued to fall. The domestic rare earth market is no longer prosperous. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index was 499 points on May 18, down 3 points from yesterday, Compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), it decreased by 50.10%, and increased by 84.13% compared with the lowest 271 points on September 13, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that since May, the domestic rare earth prices have continued to decline. Recently, the prices of the mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have been declining, and the rare earth market has been falling continuously. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium have been declining. As of May 19, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 512500 yuan / ton, down 5.53% compared with the price at the beginning of the month; The price of metal neodymium was 627500 yuan / ton, 8.73% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 492500 yuan / ton, 9.55% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of PR nd alloy was 605000 yuan / ton, 8.33% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 517500 yuan / ton, 5.48% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium metal was 665000 yuan / ton, 5.67% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the domestic market trend of light rare earths dropped.

Recently, the rare earth market has been declining. According to the feedback of some enterprises, the overall transaction situation is not good, and the downstream permanent magnet manufacturers are not active in purchasing. However, in the early stage, the manufacturers are active in preparing goods, and the inventory on the floor has increased, which leads to the low enthusiasm of the downstream replenishment. As a result, the prices of mainstream rare earth products have declined. Sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down and the rare earth industry has been affected. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile industry continued to maintain a good development trend in April, with the production and sales of 2.234 million and 2.252 million vehicles respectively, down 9.3% and 10.8% on a month on month basis, and up 6.3% and 8.6% on a year-on-year basis; The overall performance of new energy vehicle production and sales is still better than that of the industry, with monthly production and sales of more than 200000 vehicles. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the market price of light rare earth is falling, and the market price of heavy rare earth is falling.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China has dropped sharply. As of the 19th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan / ton, which was 14.73% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.295 million yuan / ton, down 14.84% since May, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.175 million yuan / ton, down 7.97% since May; The domestic price of terbium series dropped sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.3 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium at 8.05 million yuan / ton. There are few transactions in the domestic rare earth market. The upper, middle and lower reaches of the market are mainly on the lookout. Traders tend to buy at a low price, and the market price of heavy rare earth keeps falling. However, Myanmar’s political situation is unstable, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The supply of heavy rare earth in the market is general, but the downstream resistance is more serious, and the market price trend has dropped sharply.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the market of rare earth products has been objective, but the lower reaches of the business purchase significantly, resulting in the market price continued to decline.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will continue to be controlled, and the national policy is favorable. However, the demand for rare earth and tungsten mines is poor, the accumulation of reserves is serious, and the trend of some products in the rare earth market will decline sharply.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand is general, but the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. In addition, the recent on-site transaction is not good, and the purchase is not active. Business analyst Chen Ling predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to decline in the short term.

After the May Day holiday, the LPG market did not continue the downward trend at the end of April, but rebounded. However, on the whole, the civil gas market in Shandong Province after the holiday showed twists and turns, still rising compared with the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4066.67 yuan / ton on May 5, and 4233.33 yuan / ton on May 17, with an increase of 4.10% during the period and 45.98% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 17, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Motor transport North China 4160-4300 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport East China 4000-4250 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport South China 3950-4100 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport Shandong Province 4250-4300 yuan / ton

First of all, the market of Shandong civil gas after the festival. After the festival, the focus of Shandong civil gas has moved up, and the manufacturers have increased one after another. The main reasons for the rise after the festival are as follows: first, the international crude oil price maintains a small rising trend after the festival, and the news has brought some positive support to the LPG market. Second, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good, and the transportation is limited during the holiday period. The shipping atmosphere of manufacturers has improved significantly during the holiday period. The mentality is firm, and the price is mainly adjusted. However, as the price rose to a relatively high level, the market dropped in the middle of May. Due to little change in supply in Shandong, the supply in the region was relatively sufficient, and the international crude oil fell sharply on the 14th, and the downstream also had limited ability to accept high prices. With the end of replenishment, one after another withdrew from the market to wait and see, the market transaction atmosphere declined, the quotation of manufacturers became loose, and the shipment was mainly made with a small margin of profit. Entering this week (May 17), the price of LPG rose again. Over the weekend, the price of LPG in Shandong continued to rise, and the LPG futures market also rose sharply. Most of the manufacturers’ inventories were in a controllable state. The civil gas in Shandong went up, but the rise was not large. Due to the obvious warming of the weather, the terminal consumption slowed down, which brought some restraint to the market.

Looking at the futures market, the sharp rise of LPG futures market on the 17th brought some positive support to the spot market. On May 17, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2106 was 4150, the highest price was 4328, the lowest price was 4142, the closing price was 4248, the former settlement price was 4107, the settlement price was 4254, up 141, or 4.75%, the trading volume was 91531, the position was 24601, and the daily increase was – 3249（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Generally speaking, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream has some resistance to the price, the enthusiasm to enter the market is general, and the weather and temperature are rising, and the demand is expected to weaken in the later stage. At present, the overall inventory of manufacturers is under control, and there is no obvious pressure on the inventory. It is expected that the price of Shandong civil gas market will be relatively strong in the short term, and there is still the possibility of decline in the long term.

According to the data monitoring of business association, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market continued to be weak during the week (5.10-5.14), with the price at 12310 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 12120 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.54%.

This week (5.10-5.14), the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market declined, the ex factory price of the manufacturers was low before the festival, and the ex factory price of the manufacturers increased by 200 yuan / ton after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of May 14, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company was 12200 yuan / ton; According to the business news agency, the mainstream price of Shunding market in Daqing, Qilu and Yanshan is around 12000-12200 yuan / ton.

The supply side increased slightly during the stable period. According to the business news agency, the start of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant changed this week. Yantai Haopu’s 60000 T / a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was shut down for maintenance on the 12th, and the maintenance time was about 10 days; Yanshan Petrochemical’s 150000 T / a Shunding unit is being restarted gradually.

enterprise Plant capacity Commencement

Yantai Haopu 60000 tons / year parking

Shandong Wanda 50000 tons / year normal operation

Qi xiangtengda 50000 tons / year normal operation

Qilu Petrochemical 70000 tons / year normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 tons / year parking

yanshan petrochemical 150000 tons / year restart

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 tons / year parking

Taixiang Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Lande, Xinjiang 50000 / year normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year normal operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Shandong Huamao 100000 / year Stop, plan to restart in June

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year Normal operation, scheduled for maintenance in May

The price of butadiene decreased slightly and the support of cost side was weak. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 14, the price of butadiene was 6848 yuan / ton, down 0.12% from 6840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Natural rubber prices fell sharply, forming a short atmosphere for styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 14, the price of domestic natural rubber was 12875 yuan / ton, down 8.30% compared with 14040 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the lower prices of natural rubber and butadiene and the formation of a strong negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene, but some cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage, the pressure on the supply side is not big, coupled with a significant decline in the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is expected to be stable in the short term.

This week (5.10-5.14) NBR market showed a weak rebound. According to the monitoring of business community, as of May 14, the price of NBR was 20600 yuan / ton, which was 0.49% higher than the price of 20500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the domestic nitrile rubber rebounded slightly, which was the weak rebound in the sharp decline since April. On the one hand, the price of NBR has dropped by 8.98% since April. After a month of continuous decline, the quotation of some NBR varieties increased in May. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 14, the factory price of NBR n41e of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was 17700 yuan / ton; At present, 3305e offers 18800 yuan / ton; At present, 3308e offers 19700 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the downstream construction is stable, the main consumption is inventory, the inquiry is not active, and it is difficult to form a strong rebound for the lack of support for NBR. According to the monitoring of business news agency, on the 14th, the mainstream of Lanhua’s NBR 3305 market is 20000 yuan / ton, the mainstream of Nandi 1052 market is 22600 yuan / ton, the mainstream of Russia’s 3365 market is 18300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of South Korea’s lg6250 market is 18500 yuan / ton.

The price of butadiene decreased slightly and the support of cost side was weak. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 14, the price of butadiene was 6848 yuan / ton, down 0.12% from 6840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business community believe that the cost side and demand side are weak, and the supply side has little pressure. It is expected that the NBR market will be weak in the future.

Trade name: dichloromethane

Latest price (May 12): 3663 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3663 yuan / ton on the 12th, up 1.10% from the previous day. This week, the factory prices of some dichloromethane manufacturers in Shandong increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 12, dichloromethane bulk water of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. had been delivered in cash at 3730 yuan / ton; Shandong Jinling dichloromethane bulk water ex works at 3630 yuan / ton; Shandong Dongyue dichloromethane bulk water ex factory in cash at 3730 yuan / ton. It is reported that a few manufacturers have plans to overhaul their devices in the near future. The bullish atmosphere of the market has increased slightly. Coupled with the stable demand in the downstream, the price of dichloromethane has risen slightly.

Future forecast: after the festival, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong fell sharply, and the cost was dragged by dichloromethane; However, the maintenance plan of methane chloride in the later period will provide some support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane will still be mainly explored in the later period.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (May 10): 4716.67 yuan / ton

On May 10, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose by 100 yuan / ton, or 2.17%, compared with the quotation on May 7. The price of raw material blue carbon rose sharply, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream PVC market also rose slightly in the near future, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement rose.

It is expected that the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4800 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market in April fell on the whole, and the spot prices of various brands decreased to a certain extent. As of April 30, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8683.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.34% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 14.76% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic market continued to rise in the first ten days of April, and the price dropped sharply in the last ten days. The overall increase was 1.28%, with a monthly high of 8.49% at 8619 yuan / ton on April 24. In the second half of March, the price of propylene dropped sharply. In early April, the market continued to pick up and the price rose slowly. In the latter half of the year, the domestic market was significantly affected by the decline of propylene in the external market. At present, there is no pressure in propylene market, and some units are still under maintenance. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight. Downstream operating rate is fair, the market is more than empty.

April PP raw material propylene market trend amplitude is wide, PP cost side support fluctuation operation. The recent PP market to undertake the industry high load environment, the first quarter of this year, the domestic polypropylene plant overall average operating rate of 93%, located in the historical high area. The competition in the industry is strengthened, and the profit of some PP polymerization enterprises is inverted. In addition, in recent years, China is still in the stage of rapid expansion of polypropylene production capacity. Before the domestic production line was put into production, there was a certain degree of contradiction between supply and demand in PP market in April. The increase of overseas orders had less impact on the market than expected. The high price of goods depressed the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users. In the latter half of the year, the business operation gradually turned to let the profit go. Business analysts believe that the increase in trading resistance is one of the main reasons for the decline in April.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of April 30, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8816.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.34% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 3.73% compared with the same period last year. In April, the fiber PP production scheduling decreased compared with the previous period, and the proportion of recent production scheduling continued to fluctuate. At present, the demand of fiber PP is stable, which is not the same as that of the same period last year. The direct downstream spunbonded non-woven industry competition is strengthened, and the reduction of the profit of the production traders makes the decrease of the fiber material spot is larger than that of the drawing material.

Melt blown materials, melt blown PP market in April down, spot price has been stable in the level of 10000 yuan. As of April 30, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10800 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, the new situation in some areas has no obvious pulling effect on the demand for medical protective equipment, and the saturation situation of domestic epidemic prevention materials is relatively stable. The overseas epidemic situation is still the same, especially the epidemic situation in some Asian Pacific countries is gradually deepening in the near future, which may increase the pressure of epidemic prevention work in neighboring countries and regions in the future. But on the whole, the domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market has high saturation, strong competition and scattered profits. It is expected that the melt blown PP market will continue to be stable.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business news agency think: in April, domestic PP demand performance was poor, downstream factory profit space was compressed, the bearish attitude in the market was heavy, and the spot market trend fell. At the end of the month, social inventory was low, indicating that supply side pressure was reduced. The upstream propylene price fluctuated in a wide range. The price recovered at the end of April and the beginning of May, and the support for PP cost side was acceptable. But about the end of May, PP production unit involves 750000 tons of production capacity. At the moment of insufficient recovery of terminal demand, the yard is likely to be affected by increased competition pressure in the near future. It is expected that in the short term, PP prices may rise due to upstream support. In the medium and long term, there may be room for decline.