In September 2021, the phosphorus chemical market ushered in a sharp rise, which can be described as “soaring”, and the prices of related products have reached a new high in ten years! Even in the environment where the prices of more than 100 kinds of commodities in the “golden nine” are rising, the “edge” of phosphorus chemical products can not be covered up. The gratifying market is by no means achieved overnight. As early as may this year, the phosphorus chemical industry began to “warm up” the rise. In addition, the boost of recent policies has stimulated an uncontrollable rise, making the phosphorus chemical industry index break new highs repeatedly.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of September 30, the phosphorus chemical index was 2253 points, the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 200.80% from the lowest point of 749 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, 163 commodities rose month on month in September 2021, mainly in the chemical sector (79 in total) and the rubber and plastic sector (18 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were phosphoric acid (161.44%), metallic silicon (139.74%) and yellow phosphorus (108.70%).

According to the list of bulk commodities in September monitored by the business society, yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid “stand out” occupied the first and third place in the increase of the plate. Among them, some manufacturers of yellow phosphorus prices began to close their offer after mid month, and the actual trading was higher. As follows:

The yellow phosphorus market was booming in September, with a half month increase of more than 100%

In September, under the influence of environmental protection inspector and “double control” policy, prices “soared”. During the month, Yunnan development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing a good job in the work related to dual control of energy consumption. It is mentioned that the production control of yellow phosphorus industry shall be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 shall not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. reduce the output by 90%). Affected by this news, yellow phosphorus enterprises limited voltage load, reduced production capacity and intensified spot tension. The downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price, and the price of yellow phosphorus increased significantly. In mid September, the market quotation of yellow phosphorus was about 60000-65000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 100%. After the middle of the year, the external quotation of most yellow phosphorus enterprises was suspended, and only a few sporadic enterprises made external quotation. Be cautious in downstream procurement and prepare goods slightly.

In September, the phosphoric acid market soared with the “original”, with an increase of nearly 160% in the month

In September, the phosphoric acid market soared, with an increase of nearly 160% in the month, a year-on-year increase of more than 300%, and its value doubled, quickly becoming the leading product in the chemical industry. The main reason for the rise of phosphoric acid in September was that driven by the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus in the upstream, the raw material goods were tight and the price was high, resulting in the forced shutdown and production reduction of phosphoric acid manufacturers, the tightening of market supply, the shortage of goods, and the continuous rise of supporting prices, breaking through the 20000 yuan mark at one stroke, creating a new height in the past decade, which is extremely eye-catching.

In the first week of September, the phosphoric acid market was dominated by horizontal consolidation, and there was no obvious fluctuation, but some enterprises had planned to increase; In the second week, due to the impact of environmental protection, the start-up of raw material yellow phosphorus was low, and the price rose to 30000 yuan. The cost side promoted the phosphoric acid market to actively follow up, quickly breaking through the 9000 yuan mark, with a sword pointing at 10000 yuan; In the third week, the raw material yellow phosphorus rose to 60000 yuan, the increase of phosphoric acid increased, with an increase of more than 40% within the week, and the number of start-up enterprises decreased, the market supply side was tight, so it was necessary to queue up for delivery; In the fourth week, before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, the market price of phosphoric acid has not stopped rising. Enterprises have few goods and many customers, and the quotation is basically above 20000 yuan. Moreover, with the upgrading of dual control of energy consumption, the speculation atmosphere in the market has become more intense. The market price rises day by day. Until the end of the month, the rise of phosphoric acid market runs through September. At the end of the month, enterprises mostly adjust the price according to inventory, although the increase has narrowed, However, the rise continued, and the actual transactions were mainly negotiation.

In September, domestic phosphorus ore rose strongly, with an increase of more than 10%

In September, the domestic phosphorus ore market generally increased. Although the increase was not as obvious as that of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid, the price was relatively strong. At the beginning of June, due to the tight supply of phosphorus ore in the mine, the price increased. The phosphate ore market in Guizhou and Hubei remained high. In the middle of the month, the phosphorus ore market rose for the second time in the month. Affected by the violent rise in the downstream Yellow Phosphorus and phosphoric acid market prices, the phosphorus ore market was further higher. In addition, during the month, the inventory in the phosphate rock quarry remained low, and the demand for storage and preparation before the downstream Festival performed well. The overall transaction atmosphere of the phosphate rock Market in September was good, and the overall trend showed a strong upward trend.

September this year is destined to be an extraordinary September for the phosphorus chemical industry sector. In the phosphorus chemical industry sector, except that the ammonium phosphate Market has little change and the high-level consolidation operation, phosphoric acid and phosphate rock have followed the rise one after another driven by the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus. Under the background of double control policy, yellow phosphorus enterprises have serious power restriction, reduced production capacity and tight market supply, which is difficult to change significantly in a short time. However, at present, most phosphorus chemical products have risen to a high level, and downstream enterprises are more cautious except that they just need to take goods. Overall, the phosphorus chemical sector may usher in a certain callback in the future, but the high price situation is difficult to change in a short time.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on September 29, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5083 yuan / ton, down 2.49% from the previous day. In the futures market, the main futures (2201) closed at 5108, down 122, or 2.33%.

PTA was in sufficient supply and slightly accumulated inventory, ending the trend of de inventory for 6 consecutive months. At present, many PTA units are planned to be overhauled, and Hengli Petrochemical announced that the contract supply in October is 60%. However, the downstream demand is weakened, the traditional demand for polyester and terminal weaving is not prosperous in the peak season, the loom production in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reduced, and the operating load is reduced to less than 50%. Meanwhile, the international oil price fell slightly on the 28th, weakening the support for PTA cost.

Business analysts believe that the current crude oil is high and the cost support remains, but the PTA market has sufficient supply and insufficient demand. The overall market sentiment has cooled before the National Day holiday. It is expected that the short-term PTA market is weak and mainly sorted out.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price is strong. On September 28, the market price of bromine was 48062.5 yuan / ton, up 58.45% over the same period last year. On September 27, the bromine commodity index was 167.32, an increase of 1.75 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 183.98% over the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is rising. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 47000-50000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is running at a high level. The output of bromine enterprises in Shandong declined due to the impact of precipitation. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the output is still in short supply. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have started and stopped production recently, but the demand support is OK, the demand for bromine is OK, and the bromine price has been adjusted. Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow, and the output of bromine enterprises is generally low. However, the start-up of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries still supports bromine, and the demand for bromine is acceptable. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will still be high in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5663.25 yuan / ton on September 26 and 5595.75 yuan / ton on September 27, with a single day decline of 1.19%, an increase of 12.29% compared with September 1.

On September 27, the rise in the domestic propane market was suspended, and most of the ex factory quotations in Shandong market were reduced. At present, the mainstream quotation is 5500-5650 yuan / ton. The high level of international crude oil has brought some support to the market, but the National Day holiday is coming, the manufacturers’ demand for storage and discharge before the holiday and the price has been slightly corrected. It is expected that the price of propane market may still be reduced in the short term, but the space is limited.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China on September 26 was 8080 yuan / ton, down 8.8% from the same period last week.

Price of main hydrogenated benzene Market in China on September 26 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, September 26 price

East China, 7950

Shandong, 7850

In terms of crude oil, on September 24, the international oil price continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $73.98/barrel, an increase of US $0.68 or 0.9%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $77.23/barrel, an increase of US $0.77 or 1.0%. On the one hand, the recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf region was slow, adding that the capacity utilization rate of refineries on the east coast of the United States increased to 93%, the highest since May, and the continuous decline of U.S. crude oil inventories formed a strong support for oil prices.

Recently, the high level of pure benzene market fell, which was mainly dragged down by the downstream. Affected by the dual control policy, the load of many downstream units is reduced or shut down for maintenance, especially in East China, the recent operating rate has decreased significantly, the demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene has slowed down, and the purchase intention is low. This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene three times, a total of 700-800 yuan / ton to 7650-7700 yuan / ton. Although there is a certain demand for goods preparation near the holiday, the downstream pure benzene inventory is OK and the overall demand is general. In an environment with many negative fundamentals, it is expected that the pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene markets will be under pressure in the short term.

On September 24, the rare earth index was 599 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 40.10% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and increased by 121.03% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable, and the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 598000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 737500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 640000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 6275000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 860000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 765000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 268500 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.64 million yuan / ton and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.42 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have declined. Recently, the purchase is general, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series is mainly stable. Recently, the price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market has fallen, the price trend of terbium series is temporarily stable, the downstream purchase is not active, and Myanmar prohibits export, It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will decline slightly in the later stage.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 23, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 14600.00 yuan / ton, the DMF price decreased narrowly, and the price of DMF manufacturers decreased slightly, down 2.01% compared with the same period last week.

The DMF market is running stably for the time being, the focus of negotiation is stable, the operation is mainly narrow, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the purchase enthusiasm is general. At present, the mainstream price is around 14900 yuan / ton, the National Day holiday is approaching, some factories are shut down, the spot market is tight, and the market is stable and small in the short term.

DMF commodity index: on September 22, the DMF commodity index was 244.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.25% from the highest point 252.46 in the cycle (2021-08-29), and up 263.43% from the lowest point 67.21 on February 21, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF maintains the early trend, and the price is weak in a narrow range. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

The price of aluminum fluoride rose on September 22

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose on September 22. On September 22, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.45% over the price of 9200.00 yuan / ton on September 18 of the previous trading day; The trend of aluminum fluoride continued to rise.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the monitoring of business society, the market of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and rose, and the cost of aluminum fluoride rose; The high price of electrolytic aluminum was adjusted by shock, and the demand for aluminum fluoride remained strong. The start-up of aluminum fluoride enterprises is high, the downstream demand is strong, and the production capacity of aluminum fluoride is limited, which stimulates the rise of aluminum fluoride prices.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that: the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials fluctuates and rises, the downstream electrolytic aluminum continues to fluctuate and adjust at a high level, the demand for aluminum fluoride is strong, and the cost rises, which stimulates the price fluctuation and rise of aluminum fluoride. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda is adjusted and operated, and the average market price is 2216.67 yuan / ton. On September 17, the commodity index of baking soda was 147.12, the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 66.67% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the downstream market purchases more on demand in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is 2150-2250, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 2150-2300 tons, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be strong in the later stage.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong, and the market is running. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2350-2500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is low and the transaction is average. The downstream is more cautious in purchasing, which is inconsistent with the high price soda ash.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the price of baking soda is adjusted in the near future. Business analysts believe that: the price of soda ash, the raw material in the upstream of baking soda, is strong, and the demand for baking soda in the downstream of medicine, textile and food is general recently. However, due to the high level of raw materials, the price of baking soda is short-term or consolidation operation market, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of the business society, as of September 16, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18300 yuan / ton. Compared with September 10 (propylene glycol reference price 18233 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.37%. Compared with September 1 (propylene glycol reference price 17066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1234 yuan / ton, or 7.23%.

Last week, the supply of propylene glycol in the domestic market was tight, the downstream was afraid to rise, the atmosphere for taking goods was good, and the market price of propylene glycol rose sharply.

Entering this week, the domestic propylene glycol market fluctuated and sorted out. On the 13th of the week, the domestic propylene glycol market was explored in a narrow range, and the overall increase was small. In terms of supply, at the beginning of the week, although the propylene glycol shutdown plants were started one after another, the overall operating rate was still not high, the pressure at the supply end in the yard was still small, and the high-level operation of raw propylene oxide still supported the market. In terms of demand, the downstream demand for propylene glycol is cold, and the inquiry mood is not high. In the middle of the week, the market trend of propylene glycol was shaken and consolidated. Some propylene glycol factories in Shandong and Anhui slightly reduced the price of propylene glycol by about 100 yuan / ton. Near the weekend, on the 16th, the market price of propylene glycol continued to fluctuate and operate. The on-site supply was not high, and the downstream was still weak. At present, as of September 16th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 18000-18600 yuan / ton, and the average price was 18300 yuan / ton. Compared with the last weekend, the overall price rose slightly, up 0.37%.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall propylene oxide Market in Shandong rose steadily this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 16, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 16660 yuan / ton. Compared with the 10th of last weekend, the average price increased by 134 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.81% during the week. Compared with the beginning of this month, the average price increased by 567 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.53%.

Future trend analysis

At present, the domestic propylene glycol market is stable and small, and the fundamentals of the market are still relatively stable in a narrow range. From the current performance of supply and demand, propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly focus on consolidation.