Commodity index: on July 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.99% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 6.00% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business society, in late July, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. The local water treatment enterprises stopped production for about a week and finally restarted production after the power was restored. However, it will take some time for the road to recover and the logistics transportation is blocked. The current inventory situation is different. Some raw materials are slightly tight and the price has an upward trend. Some trading enterprises have high inventory and small price reduction for shipment. From the data, the mainstream price on the 16th, that is, the monthly highest price, was 14460 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th, that is, the lowest price of 14380 yuan / ton this month, down 0.55% in the first half of the month, with a small price fluctuation.

The manager of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. understands that the price of some products in the upstream of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. has been stable since the rainstorm. In terms of logistics, it is difficult to find cars now. Moreover, some sections are inconvenient to pass. ” Referring to the future, manager Wang said that due to the recent continuous increase in the price of acrylic acid, the subsequent price of polyacrylamide may rise, and the prices of brown corundum and ferrous sulfate also show some signs of rising.

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business society, the market price of acrylic acid has continued to rise slightly since the 20th: the mainstream quotation on the 20th was 12150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 28th was 13750 yuan / ton, an increase of about 13%. As shown in the figure:

Acrylonitrile, as the main raw material of polyacrylamide, increased by 50 yuan / ton in the middle of the year, and the mainstream market quotation was about 14750 yuan / ton until the end of the month. Recently, despite the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has not been significantly affected. The delayed shipping schedule will arrive in Hong Kong at the end of this month or early next month. With the production plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II next month, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Limited by the downstream demand with limited growth, the future acrylonitrile market is generally weak.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process.

region Specifications July 27th July 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4680-4900 3450-3800 + 1230/+1100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4750-5050 3670-3800 + 1080/+1250

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-4950 3600-3800 + 1250/+1150

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4780-4880 3680-3850 + 1100/+1030

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5210 3670-3850 + 1330/+1360

Hebei liquified natural gas 4950-5200 3750-3950 + 1200/+1250

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4600-5000 3500-3900 + 1100/+1100

The sharp rise of liquid price in July was mainly due to the increase of cost, the decrease of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, and the continuous rise of air intake. Multiple positive factors superimposed to support the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places increased by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity shifted significantly upward. In the second half of the month, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season. On the 16th, the domestic mainstream quotation was 4506.67 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream quotation was 5146.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.19%, which was very eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Downstream demand: at the beginning of the third quarter, the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The production in the main production areas was affected to a certain extent due to the rainstorm, and the inventory of some enterprises was consumed; Although the production is suspended for about a week, due to road damage, short-term repair is difficult, logistics and transportation are limited, raw material procurement and finished product delivery are affected, and the demand and consumption rate of polyacrylamide will slow down.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business society, since the third quarter, the production has been interrupted for a short time due to the rainstorm, the transportation has been blocked, the prices of some raw materials have risen, and the production cost may rise. For enterprises with small inventory, production pressure increases; For enterprises with high inventory, there is still room for price reduction and shipment. The downstream demand has not improved much this month. The small change in price comes from the high and low inventory of products and raw materials, and the market is stable and weak. In the future, considering the strong impact of the above factors and the future trend of LNG, the polyacrylamide market may fluctuate to some extent, the ex factory prices of some manufacturers may rise slightly, and the trading enterprises with high inventory will have a larger price range.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable in July. By the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10020 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 11.09%.

In July, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 9500-9800 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price. The actual transaction market on the floor is normal. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. The spot supply of domestic hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight, and the price trend on the floor is temporarily stable.

In July, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was slightly tight, and some hydrofluoric acid units in the site operated stably, but the price of fluorite, the upstream raw material of hydrofluoric acid, fell slightly. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 9500-9800 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9400-9800 yuan / ton. In July, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was mainly stable, and the manufacturers reported that the recent delivery was normal, and there was no lack of upward trend in the later stage.

In July, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite decreased slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2611.11 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 1.05%. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and the units of some manufacturers in the North operated normally. However, recently, the environmental protection supervision was strict, and the affected units in some areas stopped. Generally speaking, there was little change in the supply in the yard, The price trend of domestic fluorite decreased slightly in July. By the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The decline in the price of fluorite in the venue was a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable.

In July, the price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products fell, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field was not high, the sales of the automobile industry fell recently, the refrigerant market trend fell, the demand was mainly based on demand, and the price of the refrigerant industry decreased slightly. However, the manufacturers were under pressure to ship, the sales pressure was high, the operation of the refrigerant industry was low, and the market demand for hydrofluoric acid was limited. On the whole, the refrigerant market is dominated by negative factors, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform is stable, resulting in pressure on the refrigerant industry. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturer is not high, the inventory is within a reasonable range, and the market price trend drops slightly, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the shipment of cargo carriers is normal, some merchants still have cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-16300 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a is declining. However, at present, the procurement is mainly based on demand, the operation of downstream enterprises is not high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-21000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the market trend of downstream refrigerant is declining, and the price trend of fluorite is declining slightly, However, the supply of goods in the hydrofluoric acid market is slightly tight, and the price trend is temporarily stable.

From the industrial chain chart, the price trend of fluorochemical industry is declining, the price of raw fluorite is lower, and the price of downstream refrigerant products is declining. In addition, the recent stable operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid units and a slight shortage of on-site spot supply. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business society, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 28, the comprehensive price of PC market was 25125.00 yuan / ton. PC has been stable and fluctuated in a narrow range recently. The price has increased by 4.36% compared with the same period last week and 4.18% compared with the same period last month. The manufacturer has positive shipment, smooth logistics, general enthusiasm for downstream procurement, and maintains strong operation in the short term.

The overall market price of PC has increased slightly, the focus of negotiation is stable, the PC market is mainly high and volatile, the upstream decline is running, and the PC cost pressure is increasing. At present, the supply side is normal, the downstream demand is general, the wait-and-see atmosphere still exists, and there is a strong shock in the short term.

The price of upstream bisphenol A fell, the downstream demand was cold, the overall market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the weak operation was maintained in the short term.

On July 27, the bisphenol a commodity index was 245.98, down 4.16 points from yesterday, down 13.14% from the highest point of 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 241.21% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2020-03-01 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe that: the PC market is expected to be stable and fluctuate in a narrow range（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 27, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 16975.00 yuan / ton, the overall market maintained a stable operation, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintained about 17000 yuan / ton, the focus of negotiation was stable, the downstream just needed procurement, and maintained a stable trend in the short term.

Domestic PMMA operates smoothly with general transaction atmosphere. The downstream just needs to purchase and the negotiation atmosphere is flat. Some manufacturers supply tight spot goods. The upstream MMA operates smoothly with just needs to purchase and real orders and real negotiations.

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that PMMA market will be sorted and operated in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

According to the data of business agency, as of July 25, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4800.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.10% from 4795.00 yuan / ton on July 19.

On July 25, the fuel oil commodity index was 97.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.12% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 110.98% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The decline of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of July 25, the quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil for low sulfur in Zhoushan area was 4700 yuan / ton and 4800 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5000 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price rebounds after falling, and the news of OPEC + production increase will be gradually digested. With the economic recovery, the optimistic prospect of international energy demand or supporting crude oil shows a strong and volatile trend, the international crude oil price may remain high, and the international crude oil will continue to rise under great pressure.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 21, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 1.346 million barrels, rising to a six week high of 24.434 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent shock and rebound in crude oil prices, light trading in the domestic ship fuel market, limited ship refueling business in some areas due to rainfall and typhoon, weak terminal shipping demand and great upward resistance. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1025 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1062.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year increase of 83.9%. On July 22, the thermal coal commodity index was 126.81, the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 183.69% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of origin: in terms of origin, coal mines around the country have resumed production one after another, and the power coal supply has increased. However, due to the coal mine accident in Yulin recently, the power coal supply is still tight due to the impact of safety inspection.

Downstream power plants: due to the impact of summer to meet the peak, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, and the coal inventory of the power plant remains low. Data show that the average daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is about 2.2 million tons, and the number of days available for inventory is reduced to about 8 days. Due to rainfall, the coal transportation channel was damaged to varying degrees, which affected the coal transportation to a certain extent, and the coal transfer in volume of the port decreased.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in June, China imported 12.322 million tons of thermal coal (including bituminous coal and other bituminous coal), a year-on-year increase of 7.34% and a month-on-month increase of 31.65%. From January to June, China imported 59.467 million tons of thermal coal, down 21.2% from 75.467 million tons in the same period last year. In June, China imported 11.109 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year increase of 57.7% and a month on month increase of 48.1%. From January to June, China imported 53.533 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04%.

Analysts of business society believe that the supply guarantee policy is frequent and the power coal supply side is tight. Due to the weather in the downstream, the daily consumption of the power plant increases and the inventory is low. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage of power coal. It is comprehensively expected that the price of power coal in the later stage is still strong and mainly depends on the demand of the downstream market.

On July 21, the price of spandex was 78200 yuan / ton, up 15.68% from three months ago, and 2800 yuan / ton, up 3.71% from the beginning of the month. Since July, the overall trend of spandex has been on the rise. In the middle of July, the price of spandex has decreased slightly, but after that, the price of spandex has recovered rapidly. At present, the spandex market remains high, the performance of cost side support is acceptable, the spot supply is tight, the manufacturers continue to hand over orders, and the new orders are temporarily not received, so the overall market demand cannot be alleviated.

The price rise of spandex is mainly due to raw materials. On July 2, kostrong issued a letter to announce that its 420000t / a MDI plant in brunsbit, Germany, will take effect from now on. It is reported that the MDI device was shut down for routine maintenance and preparation of the device from August to September. The reason for the shutdown was due to an unexpected failure of the production system. It is uncertain how long this situation will last, but it is expected to lead to a significant delay in the delivery of all MDI products.

In addition to the rise in raw materials, the rebound in demand is an important reason for the rise in spandex prices. In terms of demand, the export volume of spandex from January to May increased by about 58% over the same period last year. In addition, after the epidemic, people pay more attention to sports and health, and the downstream demand for comfortable fabrics, especially yoga clothes and sportswear is increasing. Benefited from this, the proportion of spandex application increased, ordinary sportswear spandex accounted for 10% ~ 20%, some even up to 30%. In addition, in the near future, the lower reaches are also preparing for autumn fabrics.

Affected by the surge of spandex, a large number of counterfeit spandex appeared in the market recently. Xinxiang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. issued a solemn statement on the recent appearance of counterfeit egret Spandex Products in the market. The quality of egret Spandex Products has prominent advantages in the industry and has been widely praised by the industry and sought after by customers, the article said. But some time ago, it was found that a number of spandex products were produced and sold illegally under the brand of “Egret”. Egret spandex produced by the company is produced in Xinxiang, Henan Province, and there is no production branch or entrusted factory. Please purchase egret Spandex Products from Xinxiang Chemical fiber spandex marketing department or official cooperative dealers to avoid unnecessary losses. The loss caused by customers purchasing products in informal channels has nothing to do with our company.

Business analysts believe that since 2021 / 4 / 18, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started the upward trend. At present, the two moving average continue to move upward. According to the calculation of 2021 / 7 / 18, the probability of changing the operation situation in the next seven days (that is, the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average) is only 5.18%.

DOP price reaches its peak again

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, DOP prices in July changed from the downward trend in late June, DOP prices rose sharply, and DOP market went on the “roller coaster” again. As of July 19, the DOP price was 14412.50 yuan / ton, up 8.36% from 13300.00 yuan / ton on July 1. On July 19, the DOP commodity index was 103.99, up 3.52 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 152.83% from the lowest point of 41.13 on April 7, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). DOP prices hit the peak again, DOP market rose strongly.

Raw material prices rise again

It can be seen from the price trend chart of ISO octanol that the market of ISO octanol in July failed to continue the downward trend in late June, the market of ISO octanol rebounded and rose sharply in July, the price of ISO octanol rose by 11% in July, the cost of DOP rose sharply in July, the profit of DOP decreased, and the rising power of DOP increased in the future. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the commodity index of ISO octanol on July 19 was 126.72, up 8.09 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 260.51% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of isooctanol set a record, which stimulated the price of DOP to rise sharply.

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fluctuate and rise in late June. The price of phthalic anhydride rose all the way in July, up 1.4%, and the momentum of DOP increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that the DOP price of plasticizer and the price of raw material isooctanol both set historical records in the cycle, and the rising price of raw material stimulates the market of plasticizer all the way up. As the price of plasticizer continues to rise, the rebound of cost pressure of downstream customers increases, the rising power of plasticizer in the future weakens, and the downward pressure increases. In terms of raw materials, the short-term price of isooctanol is expected to stabilize with the recovery of operating rate, and the support of raw materials to the rise of DOP is weakened. Generally speaking, DOP’s rising trend slowed down in the future, DOP’s price rose slightly in the short term, and DOP’s price peaked and fell in the long term. 15000 yuan / ton is expected to be a ceiling of DOP.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fluctuated little this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6433.33 yuan / ton last Friday, and 6416.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 0.26% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from May to July

Isopropanol prices fluctuated little this week. Internationally, the closing price of isopropanol in the United States was stable on July 13, while the European market closed down. Up to now, the quotation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 6150-6400 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu Province is about 6350-6450 yuan / ton. The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is 6350-6400 yuan / ton. The domestic raw material acetone market continued to maintain a weak operation, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, the on-site inquiry was general, and the on-site trading of isopropanol was short.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market continued to maintain a weak operation. The downstream terminal factories were very limited in replenishment. The trading atmosphere was tepid and tepid. The atmosphere of on-site negotiations was general. The attitude of the cargo holders was under pressure. The offer was slightly revised. Most downstream enterprises were just in need, and the trading volume did not significantly improve. East China negotiated to 5000-5100 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the market will maintain the current trend today, and the East China market is expected to negotiate about 5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, the price of propylene market decreased this week. The average domestic propylene price was 7796.73 yuan / ton last Friday and 7654.91 yuan / ton this Friday. The price was reduced by 1.82% within the week. International crude oil prices fall, bad market mentality. Downstream factories have light demand for raw materials, cautious trading and short trading in the yard.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are general. The price of propylene fell due to the weak operation of acetone. The supply of spot goods is sufficient, and the pressure of factory delivery is not small. The competition of Shandong factory is relatively fierce, and the delivery pressure of the goods holder is large. The lower reaches are mainly wait-and-see, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is light, and the price is relatively stalemate. It is expected that isopropanol will be mainly consolidated at low level in the short term.

The market of NBR rose slightly this week (7.12-7.16). According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of NBR was 21100 yuan / ton as of July 16, a slight increase of 0.64% compared with the price of 20966 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The factory price of NBR in China has been increased. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of July 16, the factory price of NBR n41e of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was 19200 yuan / ton; 3305e report 20300 yuan / ton; 3308e reported 21200 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze 6500 T / a unit is in normal operation, with a large inventory of manufacturers. The factory price of nitrile 3355/3365 is 20800 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 3380 is 21300 yuan / ton. After July, high temperature weather has appeared in China, and power consumption peaks have appeared in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Henan. Some downstream enterprises started to start working and demand side support is weak.

The price of butadiene raw materials has risen greatly, and the cost side is more supported. According to the business agency, the price of butadiene as of July 16 was 10876 yuan / ton, up 13.58% from 9576 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Post market forecast: the NBR analyst of business agency thinks that the demand side support is weak, but the cost side support is strong, and the NBR market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.