1、 Price data

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from 7425.75 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7250.00 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from 7222.50 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7100-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 14, the naphtha commodity index was 91.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.47% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 116.60% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and fell, straight run naphtha rose slightly, the downstream demand was dominated, the market trading was negative, the market operation was cautious, and most of them were on the sidelines.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose and fell this week. On the whole, prices rose slightly. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve tightened its expectations on monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week, dragging down oil prices. However, OPEC + maintains a cautious plan to increase production. In the short term, the situation of short supply in the crude oil market may be difficult to improve. Supported by this, oil prices rose this week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene fell sharply this week and began to fall rapidly on Thursday. The price was 6590.40 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6500 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.37% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6220 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.89% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 4 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (7.44%), MTBE (1.44%) and WTI crude oil (0.39%). A total of 12 commodities decreased month on month, and 3 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coke (- 10.42%), fuel oil (- 6.99%) and diesel (- 5.57%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil fluctuated this week and the naphtha market was weak; In the early stage, olefins and aromatics just need to be released, the market trading limit is eliminated, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that naphtha refining may continue to decline in the near future.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.8-11.12, the same below)

Market analysis this week

This week, the magnesium market showed a stable medium strong pattern. In the early part of the week, the magnesium ingot Market was dominated by a stable trend, the market sentiment was relatively stable, the cost side support was insufficient, and the upward momentum was lack; In the later part of the week, the market turnover improved slightly, the number of downstream orders increased, and the shipment of traders was also more positive.

As of November 12, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 32700-32800 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 32700-32800 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 32800-32900 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 32900-33000 yuan / ton.

Market analysis this week

Raw material side: according to the data monitoring of the business society, the average market price of thermal coal is about 1086.25 yuan / ton, the price has decreased by 0.57%, the production capacity of the origin has been released, and the tight supply situation has been alleviated; The average price of ferrosilicon market is about 9200 yuan / ton. Influenced by the landmark steel bidding and the decline of futures in November, the market is dominated by weak operation.

Supply side: at present, there are few magnesium plants in stock, the procurement volume of downstream manufacturers is still increasing, and magnesium traders also increase magnesium prices. In addition, Yulin region is supported by local collection and storage policies, and the relationship between supply and demand is strong, forming strong support for magnesium prices.

Policy side: Yulin, Shaanxi Province has issued new regulations on dual control of energy consumption and implemented measures to limit and stop production for some key high energy consuming industries, which may have a certain impact on the release of magnesium production capacity in the later stage.

Future forecast

On the whole, although the prices of ferrosilicon and coal have continued to fall, which has a negative impact on the magnesium market, the transactions dominated by downstream just need procurement have performed well. On the one hand, there are few spot resources for the supply side magnesium plants, on the other hand, the news of collection and storage in Yulin has boosted a series of good news. The price of magnesium ingots is expected to turn from weak to strong in the short term, but the overall increase is limited.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate have been slightly explored this week, and the prices are still in a state of slight adjustment. On November 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 186800 yuan / ton, which was 1.08% higher than that in early Zhou (on November 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 184800 yuan / ton). On November 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 195000 yuan / ton, which was 1.04% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 193000 yuan / ton on November 7). As of November 11, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 183000 ~ 193000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 193000 ~ 205000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate was slightly explored this week, but most enterprises basically maintained price stability. At present, the demand side inquiry volume has increased, mainly for lithium iron phosphate enterprises. The price of electric carbon and quasi electric carbon has a slight upward trend, which is relatively obvious. In terms of industrial carbon, the market shipment is slightly poor, and the price is mostly in a state of continuous stability.

According to data, in October, China’s lithium carbonate output was about 19792 tons, an increase of 1% month on month and 40% year-on-year. With the power rationing in many places in China basically returning to normal production, the output of lithium carbonate rebounded significantly. However, affected by the low temperature in Qinghai, the output and inventory decreased relatively. However, there are still some new production lines in November, which will ease the tight supply and demand.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market operates stably. At present, the price of raw material spodumene is high, the price of lithium carbonate keeps rising steadily, the cost side is still supported, the supply side is sufficient, the demand side export orders are good, the domestic downstream demand is flat, and the price operates stably.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has increased by 2.3%. The price is stable and strong, the upstream center of gravity is high, the negotiation center of gravity is high, and the transaction atmosphere is strong. The lithium iron phosphate Market maintains a stable and strong trend.

The lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, and most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in a strong consolidation state.

Zinc prices rose on November 10

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on November 10, and the zinc market recovered. On November 10, the zinc price was 23229.00 yuan / ton, up 0.10% from the zinc price of 23206 yuan / ton on November 9 of the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 22988.00 yuan / ton on November 8, it increased by 1.05%.

Overview of zinc Market

On November 10, the spot market of zinc market was active and traded near the average price. The supply of goods circulating in the market decreased, and the willingness of traders to receive goods decreased significantly. The downstream purchase was mainly on demand, and the overall transaction in the market was general. The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters weakened, and the domestic zinc smelting output is expected to decline; The electricity price in Europe has decreased, the start-up of European zinc smelters is expected to rise, the output reduction of European zinc smelters is expected to decrease, and the global zinc supply is expected to increase; Domestic PMI decreased, domestic manufacturing production slowed down, and the supply and demand of zinc city were weak; The zinc price returned to the zinc price level in September; The market of galvanized sheet fell, and the demand of zinc market fell.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that: Recently, the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak, the zinc smelting and processing fee has decreased, the warehouse receipt inventory in Shanghai futures market and London LME market has continued to decrease, and the supply of zinc market has decreased; The transaction in the zinc market is general, and the demand in the zinc market is weakened. Zinc prices are expected to rise slightly in the future.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (November 9): 9966 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 9, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong moved downward slightly. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 9966 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 66 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.66%. On the 9th, the overall shipment performance of domestic n-butanol factories in Shandong was average, the downstream digested the early inventory, the preparation rhythm was slow, and the offer price of n-butanol in some factories decreased slightly.

Future forecast: at present, the negotiation of n-butanol in Shandong is relatively light, and the n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that the short-term n-butanol market is mainly consolidation and operation.

Zinc prices fell on November 8

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price fell on November 8, and the zinc market fell. On November 8, the zinc price was 22988.00 yuan / ton, down 0.62% from 23132 yuan / ton on November 5 of the previous trading day. Zinc market fell.

Overview of zinc Market

The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters weakened, and the domestic zinc smelting output is expected to decline; European Trafigura group reduced the output of zinc smelting by 50%, Glencore’s three zinc smelters staggered peak production, and the global zinc supply is expected to decrease; Reduction of social inventory of zinc ingots; PMI decreased, domestic manufacturing production slowed down, and the supply and demand of zinc city were both weak; The zinc price returned to the zinc price level in September; The market of galvanized sheet fell, and the demand of zinc market fell.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that: the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak, the galvanized sheet market is declining, the demand of zinc market is declining, the social inventory of zinc city is declining, the processing fee of zinc smelting is declining, the supply of zinc smelting is expected to decline, the overall supply of zinc city is decreasing, and the demand is weakening. The upward momentum of zinc market still exists, and the downward pressure is weakened. It is expected that the range of zinc price will fluctuate and adjust in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose this week. As of November 4, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12500 yuan / ton, up 2.46% from 12200 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29); This week, the aluminum fluoride market continued to rise and rose in shock.

Hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in October, and hydrofluoric acid continued to rise sharply in October. As of October 4, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 13890 yuan / ton, up 5.63% from 13150 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29); In the near future, the market of downstream refrigerants has maintained a high level, mainly on-site procurement on demand, with various advantages superimposed. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid may rise in the future. The price of hydrofluoric acid rises sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases.

High level drop of aluminum ingot

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of aluminum ingot hit a record high in the cycle on October 19 (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The aluminum price soared in the early stage, the aluminum price was high, the downstream undertaking was weak, and the fear of high was strong. Then the aluminum price plummeted. After the sharp drop, it was close to the price level in mid August. Based on the consideration of alumina cost, it is expected that the aluminum price will be strongly supported in the future, and the aluminum price may stabilize after a slight shock. The high price of electrolytic aluminum fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, and the risk of decline of aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise this week, fluctuates and rises sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases. The price range of downstream aluminum ingots fluctuated and stabilized, the demand for aluminum fluoride was general, and the momentum for aluminum fluoride to rise in the future was insufficient. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise slightly in the future.

Styrene Market weakened today. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 9520.00 yuan / ton, down 1.04% from 9620.00 yuan / ton yesterday.

Styrene market fell today. There was a correction in crude oil, the raw material pure benzene continued to fall, the current price difference in the market period was slightly small, the import cost and listing price cost were supported, and the overall negotiation atmosphere was light. The cost support of styrene was temporarily stable, some shipments were closed actively in the market price decline, and the selling price was allowed. The increase of bad news suppressed some bargain hunting replenishment transactions. It is expected that the styrene market may still fall slightly in the short term.

Today, the price of styrene in East China was reduced to around 9300-9350 yuan / ton. The quotation in Northeast China is reduced to about 8950 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 9150-9200 yuan / ton.

In November, bisphenol a market opened wide and fell. On Monday, a petrochemical enterprise in East China closed the auction of 17200 yuan / ton (2300 yuan / ton lower than last week’s auction). The offer in the spot market fell sharply, and then the market offer fell to 17800 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, with the cooling of the market and the aggravation of the favorable atmosphere, the market offer reached 17500 yuan / ton. With the sharp decline of bisphenol A, The related products ECH and epoxy resin also declined to varying degrees. As of the afternoon closing, the mainstream offer in East China was 17500 yuan / ton, and the offer in North China market was 17500 yuan / ton. Compared with last week, it fell by more than 1000 yuan / ton.

Phenol and acetone in the feed end descend in a narrow range

In terms of phenol, the opening negotiation in East China market weakened to 9600-9650 yuan / ton, mainly due to the aggravation of bad conditions in upstream and downstream, the weakening of upstream pure benzene, the decline of cost support, and the decline of downstream bisphenol A and other products. In terms of ports, with the arrival of port inventory in the early stage, the port inventory is expected to increase, but there are still export shipments this week, which has little impact on the overall inventory of random ports. Although the market is weak, traders have little intention to lower the price, and the market is mainly organized and operated.

In terms of acetone, some petrochemical enterprises cut 100 yuan / ton at the opening of the new January, which exacerbated the bearish atmosphere in the market. The opening decline in East China was dominated, and the negotiated price was 6300-6400 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the petrochemical enterprises decreased intensively, on the other hand, the port inventory increased, and the supply was expected to increase. Offers from major mainstream regions are as follows: offers from East China are 6300-6400 yuan / ton, offers from South China are 6800-6850 yuan / ton, and offers from Yanshan and Shandong are 6500-6600 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin high position wide downward

The overall breadth of domestic epoxy resin is low, closing the offer in East China liquid resin market to 31000-32000 yuan / ton, barrel acceptance and delivery, and the offer in solid epoxy resin market to 27000-27500 yuan / ton. The two main raw materials fell at the same time, with a large decline. The support for the cost of epoxy resin decreased, the intention of factories to lower prices increased, major factories lowered prices one after another, and downstream inquiries were cautious.

According to business analysts, the bulk chemical market has weakened recently and the mentality is weak. The bisphenol a market was affected by the sharp decline in the petrochemical auction at the beginning of the week, and the market bad was intensified. It is understood that in November, the overhaul of domestic and Korean LG and other major devices was completed one after another, and the market is expected to increase the supply, which is difficult to say good. The business agency expects the short-term bisphenol a market to continue to bottom out. We still need to pay attention to the impact of external market and domestic industry policy news.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price first rose and then fell this month. The quotation first rose from 15500 yuan / ton on October 1 to 19066.67 yuan / ton on October 12, an increase of 23.01, and then fell to 16500.00 yuan / ton on October 31, a decrease of 13.46. On the whole, isobutyraldehyde market fluctuated and rose this month.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in October

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased this month, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month was 16500 yuan / ton, which increased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde quoted 16500 yuan / ton at the end of this month, an increase of 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 16500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell. The quotation first rose from 8092.17 yuan / ton on October 1 to 9692.33 yuan / ton on October 12, up 1600.16 yuan / ton, up 19.77%, and then fell to 7950.67 yuan / ton on October 31, down 17.97%, up 18.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The cost support was weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde. The price of downstream neopentyl glycol decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from about 19800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 19500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 300 yuan / ton. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde this month.

The market outlook fell slightly

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of November. The price of upstream propylene has fallen sharply recently, the cost support has weakened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market has declined slightly, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.