1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda is adjusted and operated, and the average market price is 2216.67 yuan / ton. On September 17, the commodity index of baking soda was 147.12, the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 66.67% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the downstream market purchases more on demand in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is 2150-2250, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 2150-2300 tons, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be strong in the later stage.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong, and the market is running. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2350-2500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is low and the transaction is average. The downstream is more cautious in purchasing, which is inconsistent with the high price soda ash.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the price of baking soda is adjusted in the near future. Business analysts believe that: the price of soda ash, the raw material in the upstream of baking soda, is strong, and the demand for baking soda in the downstream of medicine, textile and food is general recently. However, due to the high level of raw materials, the price of baking soda is short-term or consolidation operation market, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of the business society, as of September 16, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18300 yuan / ton. Compared with September 10 (propylene glycol reference price 18233 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.37%. Compared with September 1 (propylene glycol reference price 17066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1234 yuan / ton, or 7.23%.

Last week, the supply of propylene glycol in the domestic market was tight, the downstream was afraid to rise, the atmosphere for taking goods was good, and the market price of propylene glycol rose sharply.

Entering this week, the domestic propylene glycol market fluctuated and sorted out. On the 13th of the week, the domestic propylene glycol market was explored in a narrow range, and the overall increase was small. In terms of supply, at the beginning of the week, although the propylene glycol shutdown plants were started one after another, the overall operating rate was still not high, the pressure at the supply end in the yard was still small, and the high-level operation of raw propylene oxide still supported the market. In terms of demand, the downstream demand for propylene glycol is cold, and the inquiry mood is not high. In the middle of the week, the market trend of propylene glycol was shaken and consolidated. Some propylene glycol factories in Shandong and Anhui slightly reduced the price of propylene glycol by about 100 yuan / ton. Near the weekend, on the 16th, the market price of propylene glycol continued to fluctuate and operate. The on-site supply was not high, and the downstream was still weak. At present, as of September 16th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 18000-18600 yuan / ton, and the average price was 18300 yuan / ton. Compared with the last weekend, the overall price rose slightly, up 0.37%.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall propylene oxide Market in Shandong rose steadily this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 16, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 16660 yuan / ton. Compared with the 10th of last weekend, the average price increased by 134 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.81% during the week. Compared with the beginning of this month, the average price increased by 567 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.53%.

Future trend analysis

At present, the domestic propylene glycol market is stable and small, and the fundamentals of the market are still relatively stable in a narrow range. From the current performance of supply and demand, propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly focus on consolidation.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 15): 2506.67 yuan / ton

On September 15, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on September 13, with a year-on-year increase of 48.62%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have increased slightly recently, with strong cost support. From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to rise slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2550 yuan / ton.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (September 14): 12583 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber price was 12583 yuan / ton on the 14th, down 0.59% from the previous day. Since September, the price of natural rubber has fluctuated at 12300 ~ 12800 yuan / ton, which has a short impact on styrene butadiene rubber. On the cost side, although the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, the price of styrene gradually rose, which supported styrene butadiene rubber to a certain extent. On the 14th, the ex factory prices of the main suppliers of styrene butadiene rubber were stable, and the offers of traders fell slightly.

Future forecast: the price of natural rubber is low and fluctuates in a narrow range, and the price of raw material styrene is supported. Overall, the impact on styrene butadiene rubber is more than empty, and it is expected that styrene butadiene rubber will be mainly weak in the short term.

Domestic cobalt prices picked up this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell first and then rose this week, and the cobalt Market resumed its upward trend. As of September 13, the cobalt price was 379666.66 yuan / ton, up from 375666.66 yuan / ton on September 6, the beginning of last week, and the cobalt price increased by 1.06%; Compared with the cobalt price of 369000.00 yuan / ton on September 1, it increased by 2.89%.

Monthly sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year. In August, the production and sales of new energy continued to set a new record. In August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to 17.8%, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is close to 20%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have doubled, the market of new energy vehicles has risen, the penetration of new energy vehicles has accelerated, the new energy vehicle industry has taken off, and the future demand of cobalt market has risen sharply.

According to the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in terms of output, in August 2021, the output of ternary battery was 8.4gwh, accounting for 42.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month on month increase of 4.8%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 11.1gwh, accounting for 56.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 268.2% and a month on month increase of 18.8%. In terms of loading volume, in August 2021, a total of 5.3gwh of ternary batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 51.9% and a month on month decrease of 2.1%; Lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded with a total of 7.2gwh, a year-on-year increase of 361.8% and a month on month increase of 24.4%. The output of ternary battery rises slowly, the demand for cobalt rises, the installed capacity of ternary battery declines month on month, the demand growth of cobalt market is slow, and the room for cobalt price rise is limited.

International cobalt prices resume rising

As can be seen from the data released by LME market, LME cobalt price resumed rising this week, the international cobalt market recovered, and the rising power of domestic cobalt market increased.

According to the data released by Experian, from January to July 2021, the registration of zero emission vehicles in the United States rose to 255393 from 119628 in the same period last year. The registered volume of electric vehicles accounted for 2.6% of the total registered volume, higher than 1.6% in the same period last year. The registration of electric vehicles in the United States has more than doubled, the sales of electric vehicles have doubled, and the demand of cobalt market has increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that from the sales data of new energy vehicles, it can be seen that the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year in August, and also rose sharply month on month. New energy vehicles have entered the outbreak period. The registration of electric vehicles in the United States doubled from January to July, and electric vehicles have become the first choice for more and more people to buy cars. The rise in the production and sales of electric vehicles stimulated the rise of cobalt market. However, the installed capacity of ternary batteries declined, the growth of cobalt demand was insufficient, and the room for cobalt price rise was limited. It is expected that the shock of cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10450 yuan / ton, and the average price of EPS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10625 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.67% and 32.81% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic EPS price has risen sharply. Boosted by the shutdown news of Zhejiang Petrochemical, coupled with the good support of pure benzene, styrene futures and spot stocks strengthened significantly. The cost side support is obvious, the EPS market negotiation atmosphere is obviously active, the speculative demand is obvious, and the market turnover is large. However, the market turnover weakened on Thursday and the overall turnover increased month on month during the week.

As of September 9, Jiangsu ordinary materials were 10400 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 400 yuan / ton, or 4%, and resistance fuel was 11000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 400 yuan / ton, or 3.77%.

3、 Future forecast

Zhejiang Petrochemical plant has become a key factor for fundamental transformation. It is expected that the domestic production will increase slightly, and the downstream demand has not recovered significantly. It is expected that the EPS market will be restrained first and then increased next week.

This week (8.30-9.3), the market price of nitrile rubber rose. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 3, the price of nitrile rubber was 23900 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 23233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber is stable. According to the monitoring of business society, Lanzhou Petrochemical reported 20800 yuan / ton of nitrile n41e as of September 3; RMB 21900 / T for 3305e; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally. The ex factory price of nitrile 3355 / 3365 is 22000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 3380 is 23000 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers control orders, the market supply is tight, traders are reluctant to sell, and the market offer rose. This week, the downstream rubber products industry started stably, and the demand for nitrile rubber was rigidly supported.

The raw material butadiene fell sharply, and the cost was short of the impact of nitrile rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 3, the price of butadiene was 9938 yuan / ton, down 7.10% from 10698 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that although the cost is bad, the market supply is relatively tight, and there is still rigid support for demand. It is expected that the high level of NBR market will be strong in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of September 5, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 12000.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.98% over the average price of 11766.67 yuan / ton on August 30, and an increase of 6.19% over the same period last month.

On September 5, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 113.04, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.60% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 120.87% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started upward this week, and concentrated construction was started in Shanxi in early September. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is basically stable. The resin market is dominated by weak consolidation and just need procurement. As of the 5th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11800 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 12000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 12000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 12000 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 12300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene rose this week, with an average price of 7700 yuan / ton on September 5 and 7580 yuan / ton on August 30, up 120 yuan / ton, or 1.58%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose, with an average price of 7660 yuan / ton on September 5 and 7540 yuan / ton on August 30, up 120 yuan / ton, or 1.59%. At present, the fundamentals are well supported by pure benzene, and the downstream demand has picked up to a certain extent. However, at present, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene is large, and the start-up of enterprises is reduced. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 5200 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there are 42 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 10.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were lithium hydroxide (11.39%), phosphate rock (11.24%) and polymerized MDI (8.23%). A total of 26 commodities decreased month on month, and 4 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were butanone (- 10.47%), butadiene (- 7.10%) and ammonium chloride (- 6.48%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.72%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the supply of domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories are pre sold to late September, the supply of upstream hydrogenated benzene is reduced, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future

Crude oil remained mainly in a narrow range, with no obvious positive support for Fundamentals, and its short-term boost to the asphalt market was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 30 to September 6, the average spot price of domestic asphalt fell from 3393 yuan / ton to 3376 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.49%, the price fell by 1.07% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 32.81%.

From the supply side, qilingnan, the main production area in Shandong, has stable production, driving the increase of construction in the area. The recent rainy weather, the overall shipment situation is general, and the factory and warehouse continue to increase; On the demand side, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection in some areas recently, the progress of terminal projects has slowed down, and most operators mainly purchase on demand.

On the supply side, the overall supply has not changed significantly yet and remains stable; From the demand side, rainfall in some areas has a certain obstacle to rigid demand, and it is difficult to have a better expectation of actual demand. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt spot market will still be mainly sorted out in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 3, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 626 / ton. Compared with the price on September 1 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 563 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 63 yuan / ton, or 11.24%.

In the first week of September, the phosphorus ore market in many regions in China rose sharply again. The main reason for the rise was that there was a shortage of phosphorus ore in stock in mines. In some mines in Guizhou, medium and high-grade phosphorus ore was out of stock. It was only supplied to contract users and no new orders were received. The prices of other mines with tight goods began to rise at the beginning of the week. This increase was large, In Guizhou, the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore truck board rose to 570-600 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphorus ore basically exceeded 500 yuan / ton, with the quotation around 500-530 yuan / ton. The market situation of phosphorus ore in Hebei also increased greatly. The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Hebei Fanshan Phosphate rock group rose to 700 yuan / ton, which increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the end of August. The phosphate ore market in Guangxi has also increased, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton, of which the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is 560-580 yuan / ton and that of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is 490-520 yuan / ton. At present, as of September 3 at the weekend, the domestic phosphorus ore market has maintained a high and stable operation after rising.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 570-600 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 500-530 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 600-620 yuan / ton Ship board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 560-580 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 490-520 yuan / ton Factory price

Downstream yellow phosphorus, at present, entering September, the domestic yellow phosphorus market is running upward, and the spot price continues to rise. At present, the market transaction reference is 28000-28500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of yellow phosphorus is 28833 yuan / ton as of September 3, up 0.29% compared with September 1 (28750 yuan / ton), and 8.12% compared with early August.

As for downstream phosphoric acid, in September, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running smoothly as a whole, and many operators were watching the market. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 3, the domestic reference price of phosphoric acid was 7650 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.22% compared with September 1 and early August.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the supply of phosphorus ore market remains tight. After the rise of on-site mining enterprises, they continue to wait and see the market. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that China’s phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.