According to the monitoring data of East China, the average price of acetic acid rose by 4880 yuan / ton in November, compared with 428 yuan / week in East China. As of March 11, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

region . March 5th . March 11th . Price rise and fall

South China . 3550-3650 yuan / ton . 4700-4800 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

North China . 3350-3500 yuan / ton . 4550-4650 yuan / ton . 1250/1100

Shandong region . 3400-3500 yuan / ton . 4500-4650 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

Jiangsu region . 3500-3600 yuan / ton . 4650-4750 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

Zhejiang region . 3600-3700 yuan / ton . 4750-4850 yuan / ton . 1150/1150

During the week, the acetic acid market rose strongly, and the manufacturer’s quotation continued to rise sharply. Mainly because the price of acetic acid continued to fall to the cost line in the early stage, downstream traders took goods actively with the bottom reading mentality, the inventory pressure of manufacturers was reduced, and driven by the rising market of raw methanol, the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers rose. The large rise in the bidding price of acetic acid in the main factories in Northwest and Henan during the week was good for the market mentality, the speculation mood of cargo holders was strong, and the price of acetic acid returned rapidly, Increase by about 200-350 yuan / ton in a single day.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate rose sharply. On March 11, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8350 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.49% in the week. In terms of commencement, there was little change in ethyl acetate. The main factories remained stable compared with last week, and the downstream of the demand side gradually recovered. In addition, the cost drove the price of ethyl acetate to rise.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, the rising trend of acetic acid market continues, and the pressure on enterprise inventory is released under the mentality of buying up but not buying down. Due to the rapid rise in the short term, in the short term, the market situation may be in a stalemate next week. We will wait and see the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the long term, there is market news that the main manufacturers in North and East China plan to overhaul at the end of March, It is expected that the future market will be sorted upward, and attention will be paid to the installation of enterprises.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 10, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 15333 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on March 6, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 15466 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.86%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak and operated downward. At the beginning of the week (7th), the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol yard was cold, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was heavy, the buying sentiment was weak, and a small number of actual orders were followed up on demand. Affected by the insufficient support at the demand side, the propylene glycol market was weak and operated downward. The propylene glycol factory slightly reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by about 100-200 yuan / week, and then in the middle of the week, The domestic propylene glycol market continued to be weak, and the downstream demand was not significantly boosted. On the 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market fell again in a narrow range, and the offer prices of some propylene glycol factories were slightly reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of the 10th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 15100-15600 yuan / ton, and the overall decline in the week was 0.86%. At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol is general, and the market is weak.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, in March, the domestic propylene oxide market rose as a whole. In this week, the rise of propylene oxide slowed down. According to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene oxide was 12400 yuan / ton as of March 9, up 6.59% compared with March 1 (11633.33 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand for propylene glycol continues to be weak, and the on-site wait-and-see mood does not decrease. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that the propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on March 9 was 5466.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of March 7, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 931000 tons, a decrease of 9700 tons or 1.03% compared with last Monday and 32100 tons or 3.33% compared with last Thursday.

Today, the word “up” remains the main theme of the crude oil market, with strong cost support. New York crude oil futures rose $4.3 to $123.70 a barrel in April, while Brent crude oil futures rose $4.77 to $127.98 a barrel in May. Meg’s external market performance was strong in the afternoon of ethylene glycol today, and the recent cargo negotiation was around us $770 / ton. The operating rate of polyester in the downstream was slightly corrected. Today, the production and sales were generally not high, the inventory pressure could not be effectively released, and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream continued to be weak.

Forecast: cautiously chasing the rise.

On March 8, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on March 8, and the cobalt market rose. On March 8, the price of cobalt was 575200 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from 563600 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market rose sharply and the price of cobalt rose.

Key points of analysis

The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the intensification of European sanctions against Russia, and the obstruction of Russian cobalt exports have stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, the rise of international cobalt prices and the increase of price differences at home and abroad; The price of nickel soared in London, the high nickel of ternary battery was limited, the demand for cobalt may rise slightly, the consumption of new energy vehicles increased, the demand growth of cobalt market exceeded expectations, the output of ternary battery increased year-on-year, the sales of mobile phones increased month on month, the demand of cobalt market increased strongly, and the rising power of cobalt market increased. Cobalt prices rose too fast, and the risk of future decline remains.

Future forecast

Demand exceeded expectations, cobalt supply was expected to decrease, and the price of cobalt was expected to rise in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 7. The average market price in East China was 6482 yuan / ton, up 6.31% from the previous day and 39.82% year-on-year. PTA’s main contract rose by the limit. The main contract 2205 closed at 6466 and settled at 6332, up 366 or 6%.

Crude oil once again set a new high since 2008. On March 4, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.68/barrel, up US $8.01 or 7.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $118.11/barrel, up US $7.65 or 7.9%. Western sanctions blocked Russian oil exports, overshadowing the supply benefits brought by Iran’s return to the international market.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the 350000 ton PTA plant of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. The load of 3.3 million T / a PTA unit of Yisheng new material decreased to a lower level in the evening of March 2, and it is planned to start to increase the load on March 7. Chuanneng chemical’s PTA plant with an annual output of 1 million tons was shut down for about one week on March 5. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 74%. The downstream polyester market was pushed up by raw materials. The quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. The rigid demand of terminal weaving factories was properly followed up and procurement was mainly cautious.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA processing fee is low, the maintenance of PTA devices will increase significantly in the future, and the pressure on the supply side will further decline. In addition, as the continuous rise of crude oil price gives great impetus to the market, PTA cost side support remains strong in the short term, driven by this, PTA price will continue to rise.

DOP prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, DOP prices fluctuated and rose this week, and the DOP market picked up. As of March 4, the DOP price was 12450 yuan / ton, up 4.73% from 11887.50 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. DOP market rose this week, and DOP price fluctuated and rose.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price rose this week, the crude oil price rose sharply this week, the chemical sector followed, and the isooctanol price rose sharply. As of March 4, the price of isooctanol was 12966.67 yuan / ton, up 5.42% from 12300 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of isooctanol rose sharply, the cost of DOP rose, and the driving force of DOP rise increased.

Phthalic anhydride prices rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week. As of March 4, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8475 yuan / ton, up 5.12% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, the price of DOP raw materials rose, and the cost support increased.

PVC market fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price stopped falling and rose this week, and the PVC market picked up and rose. As of March 4, the price of PVC was 8750 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton or 3.43% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of PVC rose this week, and the rigid demand for PVC warmed up; DOP market is more favorable.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that this week, DOP raw material isooctanol rose violently, phthalic anhydride prices rose violently, and DOP costs rose strongly; The price of raw materials rose at a high level, and the upward momentum of DOP increased. In the future, the demand for plasticizers has warmed up, the upward momentum of DOP has increased, and the price of DOP has risen strongly.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (March 3): 16033.33 yuan / ton

On March 3, the market of acrylic acid in East China was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 15.90% compared with the price on February 3. At present, the market price of raw propylene is rising, the cost support is strengthened, the maintenance of some units is expected, the downstream demand is gradually restored, and the market is high.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market will run better in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 2. The average market price in East China was 5995 yuan / ton, up 4.68% from the previous day and 32.15% year-on-year. PTA main contract rose by the limit, and PTA futures main 2205 closed at 5988, up 6.02%.

WTI crude oil set a new high since June 2014, PTA followed the rise of crude oil, and the cost support was strong. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory result in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and the market expectation of future energy supply interruption is further strengthened. A multinational agreement to release strategic crude oil reserves also failed to curb the rise in oil prices. On March 1, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $103.41/barrel, up US $7.69 or 8.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $104.97/barrel, up US $7.00 or 7.1%.

From the perspective of supply and demand, under the low processing cost, the maintenance of domestic factories increased. Among them, the 350000 ton PTA unit of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 78%, and the expectation of destocking helps PTA prices rise. Most of the downstream polyester market rose, and the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton.

Business analysts believe that the pattern of strong crude oil remains unchanged in the short term, PTA’s own factory devices are overhauled one after another, the supply side is expected to shrink further, and the weaving start of superimposed terminals will gradually recover. Therefore, PTA fundamentals are expected to be better, and the price will remain upward.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 449600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 468000 yuan / ton

Analysis: at the beginning of the week, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. At present, the market output of lithium carbonate is still affected by the shortage of resources, and the market gap still exists. In March, the downstream lithium iron phosphate plate experienced maintenance and production reduction in varying degrees, which slightly slowed down the procurement demand. With the rising price of lithium carbonate, the cost of downstream enterprises has increased sharply, the pressure has increased, the acceptance of high lithium price is low, and the short-term upstream and downstream game has heated up.

Forecast: at present, there are relatively few high price transactions in the lithium carbonate market, mostly just in need of purchase. At the beginning of the month, the downstream enters the state of monthly supplement. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will still rise slightly.

Cobalt prices rose sharply in February

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply in February, and the cobalt market rose. As of February 28, the average price of cobalt was 546500 yuan / ton, up 8.78% from 502400 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. On February 28, the cobalt commodity index was 196.58, down 17.72% from the highest point 238.91 in the cycle (April 15, 2018), and up 181.47% from the lowest point 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of cobalt is approaching a historical high, and the risk of falling cobalt price is increasing.

The international cobalt price rose slightly

As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, the price of MB cobalt resumed rising in February, and the price of international standard cobalt rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt market. However, from the increase of cobalt price, it can be seen that the increase of international cobalt price in February was limited, and the support of international cobalt Market for the domestic cobalt market was weak.

Sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations

According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in January, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively. From past experience, January is usually the off-season for the sales of new energy vehicles, and the consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to decline significantly due to the decline of subsidies in January 2022. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, the demand of cobalt market increased, and the rise of cobalt price supported greatly.

According to the latest data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in terms of output, in January 2022, China’s power battery output totaled 29.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 146.2% and a month on month decrease of 6.2%, of which the output of ternary battery was 10.8gwh, accounting for 36.5% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 57.9% and a month on month decrease of 5.4%; In January 2022, China’s power battery loading volume totaled 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9% and a month on month decrease of 38.3%, realizing a significant year-on-year increase. The ternary battery loading volume was 7.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a month on month decrease of 34.0%. The output of ternary batteries increased sharply year-on-year, the installed capacity increased year-on-year, the demand of cobalt market increased, the output and installed capacity of power batteries decreased month on month, and the decline proportion of ternary batteries was less than that of power batteries. The demand of ternary batteries in the future is optimistic, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the off-season of new energy vehicles in February was not light, and the demand of cobalt market exceeded expectations. The rising demand of cobalt Market stimulated the sharp rise of domestic cobalt price. In February, the increase of international cobalt price was less than that of domestic cobalt price, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices decreased, and the cobalt price in February approached a historical high. The domestic cobalt price rose too fast, and the risk of decline in the domestic cobalt market still exists. In the future, the demand growth and the rising power of cobalt market are large. The domestic cobalt price rises too fast, and the risk of cobalt market decline still exists. The rising trend of cobalt Market in the future still exists, but the increase decreases. It is expected that the cobalt price in the future will rise slightly.