According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 10, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4200 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.61% compared with Monday’s price, a decrease of 44.00% compared with November 10, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.39% in a three-month cycle.

The market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid rose this week. Recently, the price of raw materials caustic soda and liquid ammonia has stabilized, the price of sulfuric acid has increased, the price of methanol has decreased, the cost support is general, the price in the early stage has fallen sharply, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has increased, and the price has rebounded slightly.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 785.00 on December 9, a decrease of 6.82% compared with December 1 (842.50); For the upstream liquid ammonia, the market of Shandong liquid ammonia stabilized on December 10, and the price changed little near the weekend. Most manufacturers’ quotations maintained yesterday’s price level. The manufacturers had a strong price mentality, and the dealers’ offers were mainly based on the market; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on December 10; For upstream methanol, on December 9, the reference price of methanol was 2637.50, a decrease of 4.78% compared with December 1 (2770.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is relatively limited, the market atmosphere has improved, and the supply and demand support is OK. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate stably and strongly in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price first fell and then rose this week. The quotation first fell from 2498.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2450.00 yuan / ton on December 6, a decrease of 1.92%, and then rose to 2456.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.24%, a year-on-year increase of 35.69%. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On December 10, the urea commodity index was 114.23, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 20.99% from the highest point of 144.57 points in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 105.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2410 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2400 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 6383.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 26.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell slightly. The quotation fell from 1085.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1083.75 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.12%, a year-on-year increase of 58.62% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The quotation fell from 4630.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4410.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4.75%, up 37.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 16126.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 12726.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 21.08%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea decreased significantly, which had a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is advancing slowly, while industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. The future market of urea price is uncertain, the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, and the production plan is postponed. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. From the perspective of supply: the shutdown and maintenance time of gas head enterprises is delayed, and it is expected to stop one after another in mid December. At present, the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle of December, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have fallen sharply, the cost support is insufficient, and the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, urea enterprises entered the centralized maintenance period in mid December, the supply is tight, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of December 9, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8900 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 9133 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.55%.

This week, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a downward trend, and the focus of on-site transactions continued to decline. The poor performance of the downstream demand side of n-propanol has always dragged down the market. Although there is little pressure on the spot of n-propanol in the field, the lack of demand has gradually crushed the confidence of n-propanol operators. This week, starting from the 7th of the week, the holders of n-propanol in Shandong continued to make small profits to ship, reducing the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8600-8900 yuan / ton. On August 8, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing was also lowered again, with a reduction range of about 200-500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future. At present, as of December 9, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol is around 8600-9500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 8900 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.55% during the week. At present, the downstream demand just needs replenishment, the demand side is still generally boosted, and the n-propanol Market is weak.

In terms of upstream ethylene, this week, the external ethylene market fell first and then rose, with an overall increase of 2.11%. On December 8, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $652-670 / T, down US $6 / T. recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On December 8, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1361-1370 / T, up US $56 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1286-1294 / T, up US $60 / T. On December 8, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 1076-1086 US dollars / ton and CFR Southeast Asia quoted 1041-1051 US dollars / ton.

Internationally, international oil prices rose on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $72.36/barrel, up US $0.31 or 0.4%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $75.82/barrel, up US $0.38 or 0.5%. People are gradually indifferent to the destructive effect of Omicron mutant strain on the economy, and the main tone of market warming remains unchanged for the time being. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the supply of n-propanol is still supported. The downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly on demand, and the preparation and replenishment are still more cautious. The analysts of business society n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market mainly focuses on the weak consolidation and operation, and the sharp fluctuation of the market is limited. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of the morning of December 8, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 15566.67 yuan / ton, down 3.51% compared with the price on the 1st, 20.85% compared with the price on November 8, and 1.27% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market fell this week (12.1-12.8). At present, the price of raw propylene is rising slightly, the raw glycerol market is weak, the cost support is relatively general, the demand side support is weak, the downstream consumption inventory or long-term contract is mainly, the inquiry purchase intention is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market transaction is weak, and the price of epichlorohydrin is lower.

For upstream propylene, on December 7, the reference price of propylene was 7553.83, an increase of 0.11% compared with December 1 (7545.50).

For downstream epoxy resin, on December 7, the low-level offer in the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China continued to fall by 500 yuan / ton. Today, it was discussed that the offer was delivered in barrels of 26000-27000 yuan / ton, and the raw material end was sorted and operated horizontally.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business society, to sum up, the current cost support is limited and the market atmosphere is light under the pressure of weak demand. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 7 is 4900 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 6, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 621500 tons, an increase of 49800 tons, an increase of 8.71%, and 20600 tons, an increase of 3.43%, compared with last Thursday.

On December 6, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4800 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 134.5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

International oil prices rose nearly 5% on Monday as concerns about Omicron’s new crown variant virus eased and some OPEC member States expressed confidence in the market. Downstream, the overall production and marketing of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yesterday was weak, and the demand remained weak. Therefore, despite the strong cost side support, the overall decline of ethylene glycol continued. The weekly average gross profit of coal to ethylene glycol decreased by about 23%.

Forecast: the demand side is weak, and the weak market continues.

CIS polybutadiene rubber weakened slightly this week (11.29-12.3). According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 3, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 15900 yuan / ton, down 1.36% from 16120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week (November 29-December 3), the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises was stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 3, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 15400 yuan / ton; Affected by loose supply and low cost, the market offer adjusted slightly downward. According to the business agency, at present, the mainstream prices in Shunding markets such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan and Sichuan are around 15500 ~ 16000 yuan / ton.

Butadiene prices continued to fall sharply this week, with serious drag on the cost side. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 3, the price of butadiene was 6120 yuan / ton, down 10.26% from 6820 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The natural rubber market continued a slight downward trend this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of natural rubber was 13660 yuan / ton as of December 3, down 2.22% from 13970 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that, on the one hand, raw butadiene continues to fall sharply, on the other hand, the supply and demand of the industrial chain weakens. Overall, it is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak in the later period.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.29-12.3, the same below)

Market analysis this week

Magnesium prices rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the magnesium market maintained a high consolidation operation. Although there was a slight stalemate between supply and demand, the magnesium plants intended to be firm and stable in their quotation. Since Wednesday, the quotations of some magnesium plants were biased towards high prices, but the downstream acceptance was not strong. There was a small peak on Thursday. By Friday, the average ex factory tax spot exchange price of domestic magnesium ingots was 38000 yuan / ton.

As of December 3, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 38000-38100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 38100-38200 yuan / ton.

Cost side impact

In terms of thermal coal: affected by the snowfall in some areas of Shaanxi, individual prices fell slightly, and the overall price operated weakly and stably. According to the data of business society, the average market price of thermal coal was 1085 yuan / ton, the supply of origin increased, and the production capacity was released, but the overall market was deadlocked.

In terms of ferrosilicon: the mainstream quotation of 75 ferrosilicon in the main production area of Ningxia is around 8400-8600 yuan / ton, the price of large materials of blue carbon is adjusted to 1730 yuan / ton, and the price of small and medium materials of blue carbon is adjusted to 1700 yuan / ton. The notice of Zhongwei Bureau of industry and information technology and Ecological Environment Bureau on peak shifting production in some industrial industries in winter and spring 2021-2022 involves 14 ferroalloy enterprises. However, from the current market reflection, it is slightly numb to the double control policy of Zhongwei.

Impact of environmental protection inspector’s news

Recently, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team carried out supervision work in Shaanxi in December. The commencement of magnesium plant was affected by this news, which made the transaction price of magnesium rise rapidly. However, according to the sales personnel of magnesium plant, it is unclear whether there is a production reduction plan for the follow-up production of this environmental protection supervision team.

Impact of market supply shortage

The overall inventory of the magnesium plant itself is small, and orders are basically arranged, and some orders have been arranged until next month. The joint quotation of Zhouwei magnesium plant has driven the market, which makes it more difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. The rise of prices also makes downstream customers affected by the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”, which speeds up the pace of transaction. However, the downstream is not willing to receive goods at high prices and maintains cautious procurement.

Future forecast

On the whole, in view of the current low spot inventory of factories and the strong price support sentiment of magnesium manufacturers, it is difficult to find low price spot in the market. Superimposed with the inspection news of environmental protection inspectors in Shaanxi, magnesium manufacturers have good expectations for the future market and are expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term, but the downstream is not active in high price procurement, and there is limited room for significant fluctuation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 10366 yuan / ton. Compared with November 28 (the participating price of butanone was 10333 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.32%.

This week, after the domestic butanone market rose slightly, it mainly operated stably. At the beginning of the week, the ex factory price of butanone in some factories in Shandong increased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. On November 29, the reference price of butanone in the domestic market was around 10200-14500 yuan / ton. The slight upward price did not significantly improve the overall trading atmosphere of butanone. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue was still cold, with sporadic small orders traded, supported by tight supply. Until the weekend, most butanone operators continued to make strong quotations, the supply and demand in the venue were slightly deadlocked, the overall operation was weak, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the intention to prepare goods was not high. As of December 2, The average ex factory price of domestic butanone is 10366 yuan / ton. There is little change in the overall price this week, and there is no significant fluctuation in the market.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on December 1 was 112.68, the same as yesterday, down 2.15% from the highest point of 115.16 in the cycle (June 22, 2014), and up 123.31% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Upstream, this week, the domestic liquefied gas market in Shandong rose and fell each other. At the beginning of the week, on November 30, Shandong civil gas market rose steadily, and the sharp rise of international crude oil in the morning gave a significant boost to the market. The price of Shandong civil gas market was relatively low, and the downstream market bought goods on bargain hunting. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market was good, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, most of them had no sales pressure, their mentality was relatively strong, and some of them increased slightly. On the 2nd, the liquefied gas market in Shandong fell as a whole, the international crude oil fell, the market mentality was bad, and some manufacturers reduced their prices. As of December 2, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong was 5310 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared with November 29.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the stalemate between supply and demand in the domestic butanone market has been revealed. The butanone data division of the business society believes that the long-term effective support for the butanone market should also come from the improvement of the demand side. Therefore, in the future, more attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the demand side of butanone, and the short-term butanone market will continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market price of ammonium chloride fell in November. The price at the beginning of the month was around 1205 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was around 1145 yuan / ton, down 4.98%.

In November, the prices of urea and raw liquid ammonia fell sharply, which had a negative impact on ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4413 yuan / ton, down 14.03% from 5133 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of November 30, the domestic urea price was 2504 yuan / ton, down 10.32% from 2792 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the downstream demand for ammonium chloride was slightly warmer than that in the early stage, but it was still weak. The construction of compound fertilizer industry was around 30 ~ 40%. The winter storage in Northeast China was started slowly, and the market procurement increased, but mostly small orders. However, the start-up of Lianhe soda enterprises was around 70%, which was higher than that in the early stage, and the supply side increased slightly.

Future forecast: ammonium chloride analysts of business society believe that at present, the impact of supply and cost on ammonium chloride is empty, and the start-up strength and quantity on the demand side are small. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market may be weak and slightly lower in the later stage.

On November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 110.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.24% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.86% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Crude oil fell sharply this month, the price of petrochemical raw materials continued to decline, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment decreased; Although the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products continued to adjust slightly, and the adjustment range of polyacrylamide market in November was small, only about 1.37%. According to the data monitoring of business society, polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fluctuated downward this month, of which the mainstream price on the 1st was about 18250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 18000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.37%. Recently, the macro level continues to be short, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the manufacturer’s price continues to adjust slightly downward.

As shown in the figure above, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first went up and then down in November. There was a slight rebound at the end of the month, but the momentum was weak. On the whole, it showed a small upward trend this month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market on the 1st was about 15433.33 yuan / ton, and the main quotation on the 30th was about 15716.67 yuan / ton, up 1.84% on a monthly basis; It is reported that the recent startup rate of manufacturers is the lowest in the year, and the main manufacturers have concentrated accidental maintenance of devices in the fourth quarter, and the output has not increased significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month. According to the analysis of business agency, although the price of raw material propylene has occasionally increased recently, the overall decline of propylene price since November is the main. In addition, the recent international crude oil decline risk is high. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid first fell and then rose in November. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 18733.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 30th was 17000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 9.25%. The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is slightly weak, the inventory of production plants is low, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic LNG fell in November, and the price generally showed a trend of decline rise flat. The average price of domestic LNG on the 1st was 8276.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on the 29th was 6990 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 15.55% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. According to the analysis of the business agency, the domestic LNG market operated weakly as a whole in November, the market trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price fluctuated lower. Although the cost was still supported, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced the price for shipment to find a good profit. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term, maintaining a weak trend of shock.

As for the future, crude oil fell sharply, the macro level continued to weaken, the price of raw materials decreased, the market support was insufficient, and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the continued weak trend of polyacrylamide; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the macro weak environment, the polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term.