According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell slightly this week (11.19-11.26). As of November 26, the acrylonitrile price was 15633 yuan / ton, down 1.78% from 15916 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw propylene rose slightly, supported by the cost side. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 26, the domestic propylene price was 7742 yuan / ton, up 1.86% from 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Downstream acrylic fiber, nitrile rubber and other industries are mostly purchased on demand, and the offer of market traders is adjusted in a narrow range.

The listing price of some acrylonitrile manufacturers in November was slightly higher than that in October, and the market quotation changed slightly.

Listing price of domestic acrylonitrile in November

enterprise Listing price in November (yuan / ton)

Fushun Petrochemical sixteen thousand and five hundred

Anqing Petrochemical fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Zhejiang Petrochemical fourteen thousand and seven hundred

Shanghai SECCO fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Jilin Petrochemical fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Kollur fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Haijiang, Shandong fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Silbon fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that although the price of raw propylene rose this week, the overall decline of propylene price has been dominated since November. In addition, the risk of international crude oil falling in the near future is high, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 25, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 89000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market price of lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, the overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was normal, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the manufacturers actively delivered goods.

This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer shipped actively. At present, the supply side is normal, the focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream just needs procurement, the procurement atmosphere is general, the focus of the upstream market is high, the price rises, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is stable and small.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate rises slightly, the center of gravity is high, the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state, and it is expected that the price of short-term lithium carbonate is still in a strong consolidation state.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term and the price fluctuation is limited. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8990.00 yuan / ton on November 14 and 9040.00 yuan / ton on November 19, with an increase of 0.56% during the week and 1.35% compared with November 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 12312.50 yuan / ton on November 14 and 12462.50 yuan / ton on November 19, with an increase of 1.22% during the week and 4.40% compared with November 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8833.33 yuan / ton on November 14 and 8833.33 yuan / ton on November 19. The price was stable during the week, down 0.38% compared with November 1.

In the middle of November, the three domestic polyethylene spot varieties rose steadily, with different trends. Among them, LDPE in East China showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing, LLDPE showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and HDPE operated smoothly in the week. On the whole, there was little fluctuation, and the price was mainly arranged in a narrow range. Due to more maintenance of high-voltage devices, the import volume has decreased, the price trend of LDPE is strong, and it has increased successively at the beginning of the week, and the price has stabilized in the later part of the week. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises will be adjusted in a narrow range within a week, with a range of about 50-200 yuan / ton. At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is acceptable, and the downstream makes up for it as needed. There is little pressure on supply, and petrochemical inventory is at a medium level. In terms of demand, plastic film is in the off-season of demand, the peak season of pipe demand is coming to an end, agricultural film is in the peak season of demand, and factory orders have increased.

Liansu futures fell first and then rose this week, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On November 19, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8674, the highest price was 8924, the lowest price was 8594, the closing price was 8825, the former settlement price was 8718, the settlement price was 8734, up 107, or 1.23%, the trading volume was 753962, the position was 244762, and the daily position was increased by – 1792. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is acceptable, the market supply pressure is not large, the petrochemical inventory is mostly at the medium level, the demand for agricultural film is still in the peak season, and the orders of downstream factories have increased. In addition, the Liansu futures market rose in the late week, which has brought a certain boost to the spot market. PE spot market is expected to be dominated by strong prices in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 23, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 13666.67 yuan / ton, up 0.49% compared with the previous trading day, down 13.50% compared with the price on Tuesday (November 16) and 24.63% compared with the price on October 23.

Recently (11.16-11.23), the market price of propylene oxide first fell and then rose. Since the 16th, the price of raw propylene has gradually weakened, the cost support has gradually loosened, the market supply is relatively loose, the downstream is mainly cautious, the procurement enthusiasm is general, the market atmosphere is cold, and the price has fallen continuously under the pressure of the factory. At the beginning of this week, with the rise in the price of raw propylene, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream terminal followed up and picked up, and the inventory was gradually digested. The price of propylene oxide stopped falling and rose. On the 23rd, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 13300-13400 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on November 22, the reference price of propylene was 7650.50, up 0.65% compared with last Friday, down 1.82% compared with November 16, and down 6.42% compared with November 1 (8175.50).

Downstream propylene glycol, the domestic propylene glycol market was running upward on November 22. According to the data monitoring chart of business society, the domestic propylene glycol market was running upward on November 22. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 18600 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 1.64%; Downstream soft foam polyether, the mainstream quotation of soft foam polyether market in Shandong on November 23 was around 14000-14300 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is rising, the cost support is rising, and the manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be stable and good in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to decline this week. On November 21, the average price of Shandong market was 2595.75 yuan / ton, which was 10.90% lower than that of 2913.25 yuan / ton on November 15.

On November 21, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 201.89, the same as yesterday, down 23.00% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 201.82% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the trading of refineries was general, the refinery shipment was positive, and the local refined petroleum coke price continued to decline.

Upstream: international oil prices fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil fell by 6.97% and Brent crude oil fell by 4.80%. Although the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data was positive last week, the main concern was the epidemic in Europe and the United States wanted to release strategic crude oil reserves with major economies. The short market atmosphere still put pressure on oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell this week; Metal silicon market continues to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of November 21, the price was 18553.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the energy sector in the 46th week of 2021 (11.15-11.19), and the top 3 commodities are naphtha (4.70%), diesel (3.82%) and gasoline (2.73%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 5 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 12.35%), petroleum coke (- 10.90%) and asphalt (- 10.26%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.94%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has fallen recently, refineries are actively shipping, and the trading is general. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, the price of calcined coke fell, the metal silicon market continued to decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the goods were prepared carefully. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9120 yuan / ton on November 19, down 120 yuan / ton compared with 9240 at the beginning of the week, down 1.3% during the week and up 14.9% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market continued to decline this week, stopped falling and rebounded near the weekend, and the price rose slightly. This round of rise is mainly driven by the disk. The sharp rise of futures prices has boosted market sentiment, as well as the rise of raw material prices and the improvement of market trading atmosphere, which support the current PVC price from decline to rise. Recently, futures prices continued to fall, dampening market sentiment. PVC prices fell again and again, and the offer of cargo holders continued to fall, with the price below 9000 yuan. Near the weekend, PVC futures soared by 7%, boosting the spot market. The price rose by 1.22% compared with the previous day. The increase range of enterprises was about 50-200 yuan / ton. The current quotation was mostly in the range of 8900-9600 yuan / ton. Some enterprises closed and stopped reporting, and the market rebounded. At present, the downstream demand is general, but the PVC price continues to decline, the demand for bargain hunting replenishment increases, and under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the market trading atmosphere improves. In addition, the raw calcium carbide rises to 5200 yuan / ton, and there is an upward trend, the cost support is becoming stronger, and the PVC market warms up.

In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8900-9600 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9150-9500 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9500-9600 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9660-9760 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China rebounded and rose.

At present, CFR China is down 160 at 1490 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia is down 200 at 1550 USD / T, and CFR India is down 190 at 1710 USD / T.

On November 15, international oil prices rose and fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.

For ethylene, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of ethylene was 1164.75 US dollars / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of ethylene was 1152.00 US dollars / ton, down 1.09%. The current price fell 0.24% month on month, and the current price rose 49.71% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: Recently, the crude oil market has fallen sharply and the cost support is weak, so the data analysts of the business society expect the external price of ethylene to fall mainly below.

On November 11, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose, the price of blue carbon in the upstream fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream stopped falling and rose, and the demand for calcium carbide strengthened.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the operating load of PVC enterprises has increased to a certain extent, the output has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved after the price has decreased. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has increased slightly, the cost support has gradually increased, and the negative factors are becoming weaker. It is expected that the PVC market will run in a strong shock in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market ran sideways in mid November, and the spot price rose steadily. As of November 18, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.33% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

At present, the domestic potassium sulfate Market is running smoothly, and the supply of low-cost goods is further reduced. In the domestic potash fertilizer market, the market momentum is slightly slow, the spot supply remains slightly tight, and the market change is limited. The high level of upstream potassium chloride is stable, and the spot price of potassium sulfate is still stable. There is no large-scale purchase of potassium sulfate by end users, and the shipping resistance of traders is still. However, recently, the operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises continues to decrease, and the overall load is low and stable. The benefit on the supply side strengthened the confidence of the industry, and the spot offer of potassium sulfate on the site was strong. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4300 yuan / ton. The factory reference price of Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder is quoted as 4200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate Market was stable in mid November, and the market of potassium chloride remained high. At present, the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is relatively stable, and the demand of downstream users is generally followed up, but the supply side remains low. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to stabilize in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 17, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 100 yuan / ton or 1.03% compared with November 15 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9700 yuan / ton); Compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 10600 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.55%.

In early November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to decline. At the end of last week, the overall market trend of n-butanol was still weak. The price of Shandong factory was mainly stable, the transaction atmosphere of new orders was flat, and the purchase was mainly just needed. The main downstream users showed general enthusiasm for spot procurement of raw materials. This week, on Monday (15th), the prices of individual factories were still reduced in the n-butanol market. Subsequently, affected by the overhaul of n-butanol units in some regions, the supply of n-butanol in the field is expected to decrease and the supply pressure is reduced. In two days on Tuesday and Wednesday, the market of n-butanol in Shandong finally warmed up slightly. The factory price of n-butanol increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton, the market trend is slightly stronger, and the downstream is replenished periodically, The trading atmosphere on the floor was improved, the pressure of n-butanol shipment was relieved, and the normal shipment was improved compared with the previous period. As of November 17, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong, East China and South China was around 9700-9900 yuan / ton, 9800-10000 yuan / ton and 9900-10100 yuan / ton respectively.

In terms of upstream propylene, on the 16th, the overall propylene market in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan / ton, and the average propylene price in Shandong was 7792 yuan / ton, down 1.33% from the 15th. The downstream gas buying is insufficient, especially the weakness of polypropylene, the main demand, is difficult to change. Propylene enterprises take the goods in line with the trend, and the price is reduced. There is no obvious positive effect on the propylene market, and it is expected that the propylene market will be weak in the near future.

Internationally, on November 15, the international oil price rose and fell. The main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly, with the settlement price reported at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly, reported at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, there are regional n-butanol unit maintenance in China, and some downstream factories take the initiative to receive orders on demand. Spot transactions are relatively smooth, and there are many supply areas, which will continue to support the market mentality. The n-butanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong will continue a strong trend.

On November 16, the domestic cobalt price was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on November 16, and the cobalt market recovered. On November 16, the cobalt price was 423900 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the cobalt price on the previous trading day (November 15), and decreased by 0.56% compared with the cobalt price of 426300 yuan / ton on November 12; Compared with the cobalt price of 423900 yuan / ton on November 11, it is temporarily stable.

Cobalt Market Analysis

In October 2021, the power battery output and installed capacity reached 25.1gwh and 15.4gwh respectively; In terms of cobalt intermediate products, the signing of long-term cobalt intermediate products agreement is still not ideal, based on the fact that the global cobalt inventory tension will be relieved in 2022 and the current high price and lower downstream acceptance. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, the production and sales of ternary batteries increased, and the installed proportion of ternary batteries decreased month on month; International cobalt prices rose slowly; New energy vehicle enterprises increase orders for lithium batteries, and ternary batteries are expected to break out in 22 years.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of the business society, believes that the supply and demand balance of the cobalt market is still in the near future, and the market is dominated by rational investment. There is no room for the sharp rise and fall of the cobalt price. The high copper price increases the enthusiasm of mining enterprises for copper and cobalt mining, and the cobalt supply increases. With the advent of the off-season of the copper market, the cobalt supply may decline slightly. In the future, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to burst in 22 years, the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise sharply, the supply growth is limited, the demand is expected to rise, the driving force of cobalt price rise is large, and the cobalt price is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Price data

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from 7425.75 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7250.00 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from 7222.50 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7100-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 14, the naphtha commodity index was 91.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.47% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 116.60% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and fell, straight run naphtha rose slightly, the downstream demand was dominated, the market trading was negative, the market operation was cautious, and most of them were on the sidelines.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose and fell this week. On the whole, prices rose slightly. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve tightened its expectations on monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week, dragging down oil prices. However, OPEC + maintains a cautious plan to increase production. In the short term, the situation of short supply in the crude oil market may be difficult to improve. Supported by this, oil prices rose this week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene fell sharply this week and began to fall rapidly on Thursday. The price was 6590.40 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6500 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.37% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6220 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.89% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 4 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (7.44%), MTBE (1.44%) and WTI crude oil (0.39%). A total of 12 commodities decreased month on month, and 3 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coke (- 10.42%), fuel oil (- 6.99%) and diesel (- 5.57%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil fluctuated this week and the naphtha market was weak; In the early stage, olefins and aromatics just need to be released, the market trading limit is eliminated, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that naphtha refining may continue to decline in the near future.