Spot price: this week (12.20-12.24), the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7043 yuan / ton on December 24, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a monthly decrease of 2.42% and an increase of 19.02% over the same period last year.

Futures market: on December 24, the contract price of staple fiber main futures pf2205 closed at 6986, up 146 from the closing price last week, up 2.13%. Since this month, it has shown a small upward trend. The settlement price is 6956 yuan; The position was 102667, the position increased by 9641 and the basis was 57. Domestic staple fiber upstream raw material futures prices rose and fell this week, with PTA rising 3.53% and ethylene glycol falling 1.94%.

Influencing factors: 1 This week, the international crude oil price first suppressed and then increased. U.S. strategic oil reserves fell to the lowest level in 19 years, Pfizer’s new Guankou medicine was urgently launched, the impact of Omicron variant on demand was weakened, international oil prices rose to the highest point in a month, WTI New York crude oil CFD rose sharply this week and closed near us $73.7/barrel at the weekend; 2. Influenced by the rebound of international oil price, the focus of PTA cost this week moved upward, and the futures and spot prices rebounded with the oil price. However, there is no sign of significant improvement in downstream demand, and the restart of some PTA units will increase the load; 3. This week, some ethylene glycol units were restarted, the operating load increased, the total inventory in East China increased, the futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and the aftermarket may still be dominated by weak consolidation; 4. This week, the upstream staple fiber cost support, pure polyester yarn increased slightly compared with last week, the market trading atmosphere continued to be weak, the replenishment volume of downstream weaving enterprises was less than last year, the inventory continued to rise, and pure polyester yarn may continue to operate weakly; 5. Affected by the price rebound of main raw materials, the futures price of polyester staple fiber rebounded slightly this week, but the downstream demand is still weak, the domestic power restriction policy has basically ended, the supply has improved, and the spot trend of staple fiber is stable. Recently, xinfengming Zhonglei chemical fiber direct spinning staple fiber 1.56dtex * 38mm finished product quality data is perfect and users are satisfied.

Future forecast: in the short term, the international crude oil price will rise slowly and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will be strengthened. In some provinces of China, COVID-19 local cases continue to affect the polyester industry chain upstream and downstream start up and production and marketing. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will fluctuate in a narrow range. The high price of staple fiber has fallen for more than two months and has fallen greatly. Since this month, the shock has rebounded slowly, and there seems to be signs of stabilization. Pay close attention to cost side price fluctuations and epidemic changes.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 23 is 4850 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 20, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 692800 tons, an increase of 71800 tons, an increase of 11.56%, and 59200 tons, an increase of 9.34%, compared with last Thursday.

On December 22, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4780 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and down 146 yuan / ton from last week.

Stimulated by the larger than expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, the rise of raw materials squeezed the profit space of ethylene glycol, while the demand side continued to operate weakly. In addition, some ethylene glycol units were restarted, the operating load increased, and the drag on the fundamentals of supply and demand still existed.

Forecast: weak shock.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 22, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4300.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.57% compared with the price on December 17, a decrease of 14.00% compared with the price on November 22, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.81% in a three-month cycle.

The market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material caustic soda has risen, the prices of liquid ammonia and sulfuric acid have been temporarily stable, the methanol market is lower, the cost support is small, the market supply is tight, the actual demand in the downstream is general, the procurement is based on demand, the market trading is orderly, and the price has risen steadily.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 940.00 on December 21, an increase of 11.57% compared with December 1 (842.50); Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 22nd, the overall market of domestic liquid ammonia stabilized. The prices in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei, southwest and two lakes did not change much, with a rise and fall range of 50 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable on December 22; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2545 yuan / ton on December 22. In terms of spot goods, domestic shipments were poor in many places, and futures fell weakly. The focus of bidding in northern Shandong shifted significantly, and the market atmosphere was empty. Crude oil rebounded partially, power coal support was still weak, and there was downward space in many regions of methanol in the short term.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is relatively limited, the supply side is tight to support the market, and the market atmosphere is OK. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate stably and strongly in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Price list of magnesium ingots in Shaanxi on the 13th

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on the 21st, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 42000 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from last weekend, and the quotation of factories in main production areas of Shaanxi was reduced by 1500 yuan / ton including tax.

Yesterday’s market was mainly wait-and-see. Compared with yesterday, the price of magnesium fell by 1500 yuan / ton. Last week, foreign customers replenished before the festival. This week, due to the holiday, orders also decreased simultaneously; There are still few domestic spot goods, mainly futures signing, increasing caution in downstream procurement, low willingness to accept high-priced magnesium ingots, insufficient price support at the raw material end, and the market price of metal magnesium is cold and under pressure.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the supply and demand sides are still in a stalemate game, and the short-term coal price has a rational downward trend.

1、 Price data

As of December 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7363.25 yuan / ton, down 1.87% from 7503.25 yuan / ton on December 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of December 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7092.50 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 7122.50 yuan / ton on December 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7000-7200 yuan / ton.

On December 19, the naphtha commodity index was 90.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.06% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 115.15% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week, the terminal demand was weak, the market mentality was cautious and the transaction was general.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated this week. OPEC believes that the recovery of crude oil demand is delayed to a certain extent due to the impact of the new variant virus. Second, U.S. oil reserves continued to decline, and U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories decreased comprehensively. According to the data of the U.S. energy information administration, as of the week of December 10, the U.S. crude oil inventory was 428.86 million barrels, down 4.58 million barrels from the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 218.585 million barrels, a decrease of 720000 barrels over the previous week. The slight decrease in crude oil inventory was good for crude oil prices and the long short game in the crude oil market.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell this week. The price was 5800.20 yuan / ton on December 10 and 5710.20 yuan / ton on December 17, down 1.55% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell this week. The price was 5840 yuan / ton on December 10 and 5840 yuan / ton on December 17, which was the same as that of last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 50th week of 2021 (12.13-12.17), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (5.95%), petroleum coke (2.01%) and fuel oil (1.59%). A total of 8 commodities fell month on month, and the top 3 products were liquefied gas (- 3.30%), thermal coal (- 2.42%) and MTBE (- 2.05%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil fluctuates, the cost support of naphtha market is limited, and the downstream reformer is not obviously good. The transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the acrylonitrile market rose slightly this week (12.10-12.17). As of December 17, the price of acrylonitrile was 15750 yuan / ton, up 1.07% from 15583 yuan / ton last Friday.

The price of raw propylene fell slightly and remained low, and the cost continued to be weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 17, the domestic propylene price was 7425 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.06% compared with 7505 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream acrylic fiber industry started less than 50%, and the demand for acrylonitrile is weak; Nitrile rubber is stable in operation and mainly needs acrylonitrile. However, the acrylonitrile plant has a maintenance plan, the commencement is reduced, the supply side is expected to boost the market, and the market offer is slightly higher. According to the business news agency, the 260000 T / a acrylonitrile installation of Zhejiang Petrochemical started shutdown and maintenance on the 15th, and the second propylene unit of Jilin Petrochemical plans to start shutdown and maintenance in late December.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene weakens again. In addition, the demand side has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

On December 16, the price of o-benzene was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of o-xylene of Sinopec was temporarily stable on December 16. On December 16, the average quotation price of o-xylene was 6300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the listing price of o-xylene Sinopec on December 15 of the previous trading day. The market of orthobenzene is stable.

Overview of upstream and downstream market

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rose on December 16, and the price of mixed xylene on December 16 was 5900 yuan / ton, up 2.79% from 5740 yuan / ton on December 7; Compared with December 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of mixed xylene was 5910 yuan / ton, down 0.17%; The price of mixed xylene rebounded from the bottom, the cost of o-xylene increased, the driving force of o-xylene increased, and the downward pressure remained.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride hit the bottom and rebounded in December. The price of phthalic anhydride was 7050 yuan / ton on December 16, up 1.44% from 6950 yuan / ton on December 8; Compared with December 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride was flat at 7050 yuan / ton; The downstream phthalic anhydride market bottomed out and rebounded, the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the downward pressure of o-xylene market weakened.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of o-xylene raw material mixed xylene rebounded recently, the cost of o-xylene rose, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for o-xylene recovered. As the cost of orthobenzene rises and the demand picks up, the downward pressure on the orthobenzene market weakens and the rising power increases. In addition, the price of orthobenzene in the external market rises. It is expected that the price of orthobenzene will be strongly adjusted in the future and the rising power will increase.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 13966.67 yuan / ton, down 4.34% from last Wednesday (December 8), 11.60% from November 15, and 15.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

the near future (12.8-12.15) the market price of propylene oxide fell. On the 8th, the market price of propylene oxide was deadlocked and stable, the price of raw propylene gradually declined, the cost support gradually weakened, the downstream demand was cold, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the factory inventory pressure was small, and the price was mainly supported. With the slow increase of factory inventory, the downstream bearish mood was strong, the purchase enthusiasm was not high, and the focus of negotiation decreased , the market atmosphere was weak. On the 15th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 13350-13500 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 14, the reference price of propylene was 7437.17, a decrease of 1.44% compared with December 1 (7545.50).

According to the monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol, as of December 14, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 17616 yuan / ton, Compared with the price on December 9, 2021 (propylene glycol reference price 16800 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 816 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.86%, and compared with the price on December 1 (propylene glycol reference price 17933 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 317 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.77%.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is small, the factory shipment is general, the demand side is slightly insufficient, the downstream is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 14, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 17625.00 yuan / ton, which maintained a stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintained about 17600 yuan / ton. The PMMA price mainly maintained stable operation, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the price range this week was small.

This week, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 17625.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 17600 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, the price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall price change was not obvious, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on December 13, the rubber and plastic index was 780 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 26.42% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 47.73% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that PMMA prices are expected to operate smoothly in the short term with limited fluctuation range. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on December 10 was 127.70, an increase of 0.34 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 10.47% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 51.45% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of polyaluminium chloride has continued to adjust slightly since December: the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 2356.25 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 10th was about 2362.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.27%. The recent reduction of raw material costs and the requirements of environmental protection and dual control in many provinces have a certain impact on manufacturers’ production, thus affecting market supply and demand.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price continued to fluctuate slightly from December 1 to 10, similar to the “L” shape: 324 yuan / ton on the 1st and 300 yuan / ton on the 10th, a decrease of 7.41%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride market have fallen slightly, the downstream purchase intention is general, and hydrochloric acid has fluctuated slightly recently.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell in early December. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 12th was 14900 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 12.35%. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, the inquiry and transaction were general, and the market was weak and stable. With the return of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was improved, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was not followed up, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the inquiry and transaction were depressed, and the market price fell again; The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is limited, and the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term.

As for the future market, the raw material support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, and the current polyaluminium chloride market fluctuates slightly; Under the policy of environmental protection and regional dual control in winter, the market generally predicts that the production of manufacturers will be limited and the market price will rise in the later stage. At present, the price mainly fluctuates slightly.