Styrene Market weakened today. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 9520.00 yuan / ton, down 1.04% from 9620.00 yuan / ton yesterday.

Styrene market fell today. There was a correction in crude oil, the raw material pure benzene continued to fall, the current price difference in the market period was slightly small, the import cost and listing price cost were supported, and the overall negotiation atmosphere was light. The cost support of styrene was temporarily stable, some shipments were closed actively in the market price decline, and the selling price was allowed. The increase of bad news suppressed some bargain hunting replenishment transactions. It is expected that the styrene market may still fall slightly in the short term.

Today, the price of styrene in East China was reduced to around 9300-9350 yuan / ton. The quotation in Northeast China is reduced to about 8950 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 9150-9200 yuan / ton.

In November, bisphenol a market opened wide and fell. On Monday, a petrochemical enterprise in East China closed the auction of 17200 yuan / ton (2300 yuan / ton lower than last week’s auction). The offer in the spot market fell sharply, and then the market offer fell to 17800 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, with the cooling of the market and the aggravation of the favorable atmosphere, the market offer reached 17500 yuan / ton. With the sharp decline of bisphenol A, The related products ECH and epoxy resin also declined to varying degrees. As of the afternoon closing, the mainstream offer in East China was 17500 yuan / ton, and the offer in North China market was 17500 yuan / ton. Compared with last week, it fell by more than 1000 yuan / ton.

Phenol and acetone in the feed end descend in a narrow range

In terms of phenol, the opening negotiation in East China market weakened to 9600-9650 yuan / ton, mainly due to the aggravation of bad conditions in upstream and downstream, the weakening of upstream pure benzene, the decline of cost support, and the decline of downstream bisphenol A and other products. In terms of ports, with the arrival of port inventory in the early stage, the port inventory is expected to increase, but there are still export shipments this week, which has little impact on the overall inventory of random ports. Although the market is weak, traders have little intention to lower the price, and the market is mainly organized and operated.

In terms of acetone, some petrochemical enterprises cut 100 yuan / ton at the opening of the new January, which exacerbated the bearish atmosphere in the market. The opening decline in East China was dominated, and the negotiated price was 6300-6400 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the petrochemical enterprises decreased intensively, on the other hand, the port inventory increased, and the supply was expected to increase. Offers from major mainstream regions are as follows: offers from East China are 6300-6400 yuan / ton, offers from South China are 6800-6850 yuan / ton, and offers from Yanshan and Shandong are 6500-6600 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin high position wide downward

The overall breadth of domestic epoxy resin is low, closing the offer in East China liquid resin market to 31000-32000 yuan / ton, barrel acceptance and delivery, and the offer in solid epoxy resin market to 27000-27500 yuan / ton. The two main raw materials fell at the same time, with a large decline. The support for the cost of epoxy resin decreased, the intention of factories to lower prices increased, major factories lowered prices one after another, and downstream inquiries were cautious.

According to business analysts, the bulk chemical market has weakened recently and the mentality is weak. The bisphenol a market was affected by the sharp decline in the petrochemical auction at the beginning of the week, and the market bad was intensified. It is understood that in November, the overhaul of domestic and Korean LG and other major devices was completed one after another, and the market is expected to increase the supply, which is difficult to say good. The business agency expects the short-term bisphenol a market to continue to bottom out. We still need to pay attention to the impact of external market and domestic industry policy news.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price first rose and then fell this month. The quotation first rose from 15500 yuan / ton on October 1 to 19066.67 yuan / ton on October 12, an increase of 23.01, and then fell to 16500.00 yuan / ton on October 31, a decrease of 13.46. On the whole, isobutyraldehyde market fluctuated and rose this month.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in October

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased this month, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month was 16500 yuan / ton, which increased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde quoted 16500 yuan / ton at the end of this month, an increase of 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 16500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell. The quotation first rose from 8092.17 yuan / ton on October 1 to 9692.33 yuan / ton on October 12, up 1600.16 yuan / ton, up 19.77%, and then fell to 7950.67 yuan / ton on October 31, down 17.97%, up 18.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The cost support was weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde. The price of downstream neopentyl glycol decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from about 19800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 19500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 300 yuan / ton. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde this month.

The market outlook fell slightly

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of November. The price of upstream propylene has fallen sharply recently, the cost support has weakened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market has declined slightly, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene opened an upward channel after the national day, and the price rose continuously and fell by the end of the month. On October 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 / ton; On October 29, the price was 6830 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5860 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 7060 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.55% over the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 1200 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

During the national day, the crude oil market continued to rise, driving the collective rise of relevant bulk commodities; The demand for gasoline and diesel oil is good, and the price rises all the way. Boosted by multiple advantages, the mixed xylene market is actively pushed up, and the price rises all the way. Sinopec’s price of mixed xylene increased actively, which gave a positive boost to the market, and there was high enthusiasm for speculation on the floor. Crude oil callback in the middle of the month, but gasoline and diesel prices were strong, and mixed xylene maintained a strong trend.

At the end of the month, the trend of crude oil was still strong, but related bulk commodities generally weakened, gasoline and diesel fell broadly, downstream demand weakened, dragged down the mixed xylene market mentality, and the high price fell..

In terms of crude oil, with the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere and the easing of the epidemic, energy demand is expected to increase. Global natural gas and coal prices soared, and some power plants were replaced by oil. The shortage of crude oil supply continued to drive the international oil price higher, with oil distribution and US oil both exceeding US $80 / barrel. Brent rose 6.07 USD / barrel this month, or 7.75%; WTI rose $8.54/barrel, or 11.38%.

In terms of external market, as of October 28, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $802.5/t, an increase of US $56 / T or 7.5% compared with September 30.

Downstream, in the PX market, in the PX market, the price of PX stabilized after rising in October. The price was 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 2.82% compared with the beginning of the month and 64.04% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fluctuated and fell after rising in October. The price was 5069.82 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 5100 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.6% over the beginning of the month and 52.24% over the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China increased significantly twice this month, and the rest remained stable. The price was 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6900 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.15% over the beginning of the month and 56.82% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rose continuously to a high level this month and fell broadly at the end of the month. The price was 7738 yuan / ton on October 1 and 8464.8 yuan / ton on October 29, an increase of 9.39% over the beginning of the month and 64.03% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the Iranian nuclear negotiations may be restarted, but the prospect is still uncertain. Crude oil supply is expected to be tight, the pattern is difficult to change, the global epidemic has eased, energy demand is expected to improve, and short-term crude oil prices are expected to remain high. The market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting to be held on November 4 to discuss the output policy. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

On the whole, the cost of crude oil may fall, the demand side is difficult to maintain, the market continues to be weak, factory shipments are blocked, and mixed xylene is expected to shock and callback. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 9290.00 yuan / ton on October 24 and 8920.00 yuan / ton on October 28, with a decline of 3.98% during the week and an increase of 8.12% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 12825.00 yuan / ton on October 24 and 12075.00 yuan / ton on October 28, with a decline of 5.85% during the week and an increase of 6.50% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9500.00 yuan / ton on October 24 and 8933.33 yuan / ton on October 28, with a decrease of 5.96% during the week and an increase of 2.10% compared with September 1.

This week, the domestic polyethylene futures and current markets were dominated by weak decline, and the three major spot varieties collectively fell, showing a continuous downward trend during the week. Among them, the decline of HDPE in East China was the most obvious, and LLDPE and LDPE were also reduced to varying degrees. There are strong negative factors in the market this week. First, petrochemical enterprises collectively reduced the ex factory price by 200-1200 yuan / ton. Liansu futures fell significantly during the week, which is bad for the mentality of the spot market. The price of thermal coal fell, the effect of intervention policy appeared, the coal output increased, the tight supply situation eased, the coal production capacity was released in stages, the coal price fell, and the cost side support weakened. However, due to the impact of power restriction on the terminal, the demand is not prosperous in the peak season, the downstream just needs to enter the market, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is poor, the merchant price follows the weakness, and the firm price focuses on a single discussion.

Liansu futures fell broadly this week, bringing obvious bad news to the spot market. On October 28, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8730, the highest price was 8875, the lowest price was 8570, the closing price was 8760, the former settlement price was 8895, the settlement price was 8700, down 135, or 1.52%, the trading volume was 593760, the position was 246379, and the daily position was increased by – 24427. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the atmosphere of adult trading in the market is poor, the overall trend of the three PE spot varieties is in the doldrums, and petrochemical enterprises have greatly reduced the ex factory price. The downstream mentality is cautious, multidimensional holds replenishment on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. In terms of demand, the film is limited, and the downstream is generally improved, showing a trend of not flourishing in the peak season. PE spot market is expected to continue to weaken in the short term.

In October, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply and stabilized after falling sharply

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the DOP price plummeted in October, and the overall DOP market returned to stability after the sharp rise and fall in October. Affected by centralized procurement after the National Day holiday and manufacturers’ power rationing and production reduction, DOP prices soared by 18.38% from October 1 to 11; With the end of centralized procurement and the recovery of plasticizer manufacturers, DOP prices plummeted. From October 12 to October 19, DOP prices plummeted by 11.60%; After a week of sharp decline, the DOP market entered a relatively calm period. From the 20th to the 27th, the DOP price fluctuated slightly, down only 3.47%. As of October 27, the DOP price was 12500 yuan / ton, up 1.4% from the DOP price of 12375 yuan / ton on October 1; Overall, DOP prices fluctuated and stabilized in October.

In October, the price of isooctanol soared, plummeted and fluctuated continuously

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol soared and plummeted in October. In early October, the price of isooctanol soared due to the impact of centralized procurement after the festival and the soaring price of raw material coal to syngas; With the end of centralized procurement, the demand for isooctanol declined, the downstream PVC price of plasticizer plummeted, the purchasing intention of plasticizer manufacturers declined seriously, and the downstream manufacturers of plasticizer no longer paid for the high price, the high price isooctanol lost support, the downward pressure of isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol plummeted; After that, the high price of isooctanol raw material coal syngas stimulated the rise of isooctanol price. However, with the national macro-control, the rising momentum of coal related products was blocked, the rise of isooctanol was frustrated again, and the price of isooctanol fell again. However, due to the high cost of isooctanol, there is limited room for the decline of isooctanol in the future.

The price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise in October

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise in October. Affected by the rise in the price of phthalic anhydride and the start-up of downstream plasticizer manufacturers, the demand for phthalic anhydride increased, the phthalic anhydride market continued to be strong, the cost of DOP rose sharply, and the driving force of DOP rise increased.

PVC rose first and then fell in October

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price first rose and then fell in October. After the festival, PVC manufacturers purchased intensively, and the PVC price rose sharply. As of October 12, the PVC price soared by 15.2%; After centralized procurement, the price of PVC plummeted. As of October 27, the price of PVC plummeted by 23.75% compared with October 12. As of October 27, PVC prices fell by 12.02% in October; Overall, the PVC market plummeted in October, the demand for plasticizers declined, the downstream customers of plasticizers were less motivated to purchase, and the downward pressure on DOP prices was great.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at the business agency, believes that in early October, affected by the centralized procurement after the festival and the reduction of power supply, the market demand surged in the short term, the supply shortage intensified, and the product price of the plasticizer industry chain soared; After the end of centralized procurement, the start of plasticizer manufacturers picked up, the supply of plasticizer increased, the demand decreased, and the product price of plasticizer industrial chain plummeted. After two weeks of adjustment, after the 20th, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain products are relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer has entered a relatively stable period. The main influencing factors of plasticizer DOP price are raw material cost and downstream purchase intention. The price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride continued to rise in October, and the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell. After October, the price still kept rising slightly, the cost of DOP was high, and the space for DOP to fall was limited; Downstream PVC prices continued to decline, downstream demand for high DOP was insufficient, procurement intention declined seriously, and DOP fell under great pressure. Overall, DOP has great downward pressure in the future, and DOP prices are expected to fluctuate slightly.

Trade name: lithium iron phosphate

Latest price (October 26): 86000.00 yuan / ton

As of October 26, the lithium iron phosphate market was mainly stable, with a price increase of 8.86% compared with the same period last week and 34.38% compared with the same period last month. The price was dominated, and the upstream price was high. Lithium iron phosphate followed the upward trend all the way. The negotiation focus was high, the trading atmosphere was strong, and the lithium iron phosphate Market maintained a stable, medium and strong trend.

Future forecast: the lithium iron phosphate Market is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term, with a narrow range of shocks.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose this week. On October 22, the average price of sulfur production was 2083.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.29% compared with 2036.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and an increase of 6.84% month on month.

The sulfur market trend continued to be stable, medium and upward this week. The refinery inventory in various regions in China maintained a low level. The downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The enterprise shipped smoothly and had a positive attitude on the site. During the week, the refinery in various regions adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment. The price of liquid sulfur in East China was temporarily stable, and the mainstream price was 2010-2140 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be increased by 30 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1840-1940 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be increased by 30 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 2030-2040 yuan / ton. As of October 22, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties October 16th October 22nd Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1900-1990 yuan / ton 1900-1990 yuan / ton 0 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1890-1950 yuan / ton 1920-1980 yuan / ton 30 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 2080 yuan / ton 2150 yuan / ton 70 yuan / ton

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market remained stable, the domestic market demand tended to be rational, the market trading was mainly on demand, and the shipment remained stable. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises of Monoammonium have no obvious intention to purchase raw materials and hold a wait-and-see attitude. Diammonium enterprises still mainly issue early-stage orders, with good cost support, downstream purchase on demand, and high diammonium prices. In terms of supply and demand performance, the ammonium phosphate market operates smoothly.

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, the domestic sulfur market is relatively strong, the US gold market is high, the port supply is tight, and the mentality of the freight merchants is wait-and-see, which provides effective support for the domestic refinery market. In addition, the warehouse position of domestic refinery enterprises remains low and the shipment is stable. It is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted and operated at a high level, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

Commodity index: on October 22, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 127.93, up 2.4 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 51.72% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that the market of water treatment products continued to rise this week. The manufacturer was still cautious in quotation, pricing and delivery were subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation was not accepted. In fact, it was subject to payment and order arrangement. However, compared with the early stage, the quotation at the supply end was chaotic, the downstream procurement pressure cost increased significantly, and the transaction was more difficult.

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On October 18, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 2255.56 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.4%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose this week, and the quotation rose sharply from 334 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 512 yuan / ton on Friday. The market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market situation of downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride is adjusted at a high level, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the maintenance of enterprises has increased recently, the supply of hydrochloric acid is tight, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 6160 yuan / ton on the 18th and 6744 yuan / ton on the 22nd, up 9.48% week on week. Recently, the temperature dropped sharply, the heating season came, the demand side support increased, the market trading was positive, the sales pressure of liquid plants was small, and the price of feed gas increased, the supply in some regions was tightened, and the cost supply continued to boost the market. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will maintain an upward trend, but considering that the downstream acceptance still needs to be followed up after the continuous rise, the increase slowed down, Narrow amplitude fluctuation is dominant.

As for the future, subject to the high price of upstream raw materials and the great pressure of downstream procurement of water treatment, the price of polyaluminium chloride is likely to remain high in the short term. However, with the slowdown of the rise of bulk commodities and even the correction of the trend, especially the restriction of demand reduction, it is more likely to gradually weaken in the medium and long term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent trend of PA6 domestic market fluctuated, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of October 21, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Zhongtong was about 17833.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 2.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream caprolactam, the current raw material pure benzene fluctuates and rises, and the cost side support is acceptable. The supply side is tight, and caprolactam runs at a high level after rising. Downstream on-demand procurement, enterprises start low.

Recent upstream caprolactam price stagflation finishing operation, PA6 cost side support is acceptable. The cost pressure caused by the high level of raw materials is large, and the negative profit situation of the polymerization plant has eased through its own load and order adjustment. In terms of demand, it is still the traditional peak demand season in the near future, but environmental protection policies such as double restrictions affect the load of terminal enterprises, users’ goods taking situation is not strong, and there is a lot of wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the recent cost side support of caprolactam for PA6 is acceptable, and the spot price of PA6 is high. The terminal demand is affected by the environmental protection policy and does not reach the expected effect in the peak season, and the centralized replenishment market is weakened. The market fundamentals are still stable, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 may maintain a stable operation in the short term.