1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market ran sideways in mid November, and the spot price rose steadily. As of November 18, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.33% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

At present, the domestic potassium sulfate Market is running smoothly, and the supply of low-cost goods is further reduced. In the domestic potash fertilizer market, the market momentum is slightly slow, the spot supply remains slightly tight, and the market change is limited. The high level of upstream potassium chloride is stable, and the spot price of potassium sulfate is still stable. There is no large-scale purchase of potassium sulfate by end users, and the shipping resistance of traders is still. However, recently, the operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises continues to decrease, and the overall load is low and stable. The benefit on the supply side strengthened the confidence of the industry, and the spot offer of potassium sulfate on the site was strong. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4300 yuan / ton. The factory reference price of Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder is quoted as 4200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate Market was stable in mid November, and the market of potassium chloride remained high. At present, the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is relatively stable, and the demand of downstream users is generally followed up, but the supply side remains low. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to stabilize in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 17, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 100 yuan / ton or 1.03% compared with November 15 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9700 yuan / ton); Compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 10600 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.55%.

In early November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to decline. At the end of last week, the overall market trend of n-butanol was still weak. The price of Shandong factory was mainly stable, the transaction atmosphere of new orders was flat, and the purchase was mainly just needed. The main downstream users showed general enthusiasm for spot procurement of raw materials. This week, on Monday (15th), the prices of individual factories were still reduced in the n-butanol market. Subsequently, affected by the overhaul of n-butanol units in some regions, the supply of n-butanol in the field is expected to decrease and the supply pressure is reduced. In two days on Tuesday and Wednesday, the market of n-butanol in Shandong finally warmed up slightly. The factory price of n-butanol increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton, the market trend is slightly stronger, and the downstream is replenished periodically, The trading atmosphere on the floor was improved, the pressure of n-butanol shipment was relieved, and the normal shipment was improved compared with the previous period. As of November 17, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong, East China and South China was around 9700-9900 yuan / ton, 9800-10000 yuan / ton and 9900-10100 yuan / ton respectively.

In terms of upstream propylene, on the 16th, the overall propylene market in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan / ton, and the average propylene price in Shandong was 7792 yuan / ton, down 1.33% from the 15th. The downstream gas buying is insufficient, especially the weakness of polypropylene, the main demand, is difficult to change. Propylene enterprises take the goods in line with the trend, and the price is reduced. There is no obvious positive effect on the propylene market, and it is expected that the propylene market will be weak in the near future.

Internationally, on November 15, the international oil price rose and fell. The main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly, with the settlement price reported at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly, reported at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, there are regional n-butanol unit maintenance in China, and some downstream factories take the initiative to receive orders on demand. Spot transactions are relatively smooth, and there are many supply areas, which will continue to support the market mentality. The n-butanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong will continue a strong trend.

On November 16, the domestic cobalt price was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on November 16, and the cobalt market recovered. On November 16, the cobalt price was 423900 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the cobalt price on the previous trading day (November 15), and decreased by 0.56% compared with the cobalt price of 426300 yuan / ton on November 12; Compared with the cobalt price of 423900 yuan / ton on November 11, it is temporarily stable.

Cobalt Market Analysis

In October 2021, the power battery output and installed capacity reached 25.1gwh and 15.4gwh respectively; In terms of cobalt intermediate products, the signing of long-term cobalt intermediate products agreement is still not ideal, based on the fact that the global cobalt inventory tension will be relieved in 2022 and the current high price and lower downstream acceptance. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, the production and sales of ternary batteries increased, and the installed proportion of ternary batteries decreased month on month; International cobalt prices rose slowly; New energy vehicle enterprises increase orders for lithium batteries, and ternary batteries are expected to break out in 22 years.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of the business society, believes that the supply and demand balance of the cobalt market is still in the near future, and the market is dominated by rational investment. There is no room for the sharp rise and fall of the cobalt price. The high copper price increases the enthusiasm of mining enterprises for copper and cobalt mining, and the cobalt supply increases. With the advent of the off-season of the copper market, the cobalt supply may decline slightly. In the future, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to burst in 22 years, the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise sharply, the supply growth is limited, the demand is expected to rise, the driving force of cobalt price rise is large, and the cobalt price is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Price data

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from 7425.75 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of November 14, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7250.00 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from 7222.50 yuan / ton on November 8. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7100-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 14, the naphtha commodity index was 91.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.47% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 116.60% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and fell, straight run naphtha rose slightly, the downstream demand was dominated, the market trading was negative, the market operation was cautious, and most of them were on the sidelines.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose and fell this week. On the whole, prices rose slightly. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve tightened its expectations on monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week, dragging down oil prices. However, OPEC + maintains a cautious plan to increase production. In the short term, the situation of short supply in the crude oil market may be difficult to improve. Supported by this, oil prices rose this week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene fell sharply this week and began to fall rapidly on Thursday. The price was 6590.40 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6500 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.37% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton on November 5 and 6220 yuan / ton on November 12, down 1.89% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 4 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (7.44%), MTBE (1.44%) and WTI crude oil (0.39%). A total of 12 commodities decreased month on month, and 3 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coke (- 10.42%), fuel oil (- 6.99%) and diesel (- 5.57%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil fluctuated this week and the naphtha market was weak; In the early stage, olefins and aromatics just need to be released, the market trading limit is eliminated, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that naphtha refining may continue to decline in the near future.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.8-11.12, the same below)

Market analysis this week

This week, the magnesium market showed a stable medium strong pattern. In the early part of the week, the magnesium ingot Market was dominated by a stable trend, the market sentiment was relatively stable, the cost side support was insufficient, and the upward momentum was lack; In the later part of the week, the market turnover improved slightly, the number of downstream orders increased, and the shipment of traders was also more positive.

As of November 12, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 32700-32800 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 32700-32800 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 32800-32900 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 32900-33000 yuan / ton.

Market analysis this week

Raw material side: according to the data monitoring of the business society, the average market price of thermal coal is about 1086.25 yuan / ton, the price has decreased by 0.57%, the production capacity of the origin has been released, and the tight supply situation has been alleviated; The average price of ferrosilicon market is about 9200 yuan / ton. Influenced by the landmark steel bidding and the decline of futures in November, the market is dominated by weak operation.

Supply side: at present, there are few magnesium plants in stock, the procurement volume of downstream manufacturers is still increasing, and magnesium traders also increase magnesium prices. In addition, Yulin region is supported by local collection and storage policies, and the relationship between supply and demand is strong, forming strong support for magnesium prices.

Policy side: Yulin, Shaanxi Province has issued new regulations on dual control of energy consumption and implemented measures to limit and stop production for some key high energy consuming industries, which may have a certain impact on the release of magnesium production capacity in the later stage.

Future forecast

On the whole, although the prices of ferrosilicon and coal have continued to fall, which has a negative impact on the magnesium market, the transactions dominated by downstream just need procurement have performed well. On the one hand, there are few spot resources for the supply side magnesium plants, on the other hand, the news of collection and storage in Yulin has boosted a series of good news. The price of magnesium ingots is expected to turn from weak to strong in the short term, but the overall increase is limited.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate have been slightly explored this week, and the prices are still in a state of slight adjustment. On November 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 186800 yuan / ton, which was 1.08% higher than that in early Zhou (on November 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 184800 yuan / ton). On November 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 195000 yuan / ton, which was 1.04% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 193000 yuan / ton on November 7). As of November 11, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 183000 ~ 193000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 193000 ~ 205000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate was slightly explored this week, but most enterprises basically maintained price stability. At present, the demand side inquiry volume has increased, mainly for lithium iron phosphate enterprises. The price of electric carbon and quasi electric carbon has a slight upward trend, which is relatively obvious. In terms of industrial carbon, the market shipment is slightly poor, and the price is mostly in a state of continuous stability.

According to data, in October, China’s lithium carbonate output was about 19792 tons, an increase of 1% month on month and 40% year-on-year. With the power rationing in many places in China basically returning to normal production, the output of lithium carbonate rebounded significantly. However, affected by the low temperature in Qinghai, the output and inventory decreased relatively. However, there are still some new production lines in November, which will ease the tight supply and demand.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market operates stably. At present, the price of raw material spodumene is high, the price of lithium carbonate keeps rising steadily, the cost side is still supported, the supply side is sufficient, the demand side export orders are good, the domestic downstream demand is flat, and the price operates stably.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has increased by 2.3%. The price is stable and strong, the upstream center of gravity is high, the negotiation center of gravity is high, and the transaction atmosphere is strong. The lithium iron phosphate Market maintains a stable and strong trend.

The lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, and most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in a strong consolidation state.

Zinc prices rose on November 10

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on November 10, and the zinc market recovered. On November 10, the zinc price was 23229.00 yuan / ton, up 0.10% from the zinc price of 23206 yuan / ton on November 9 of the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 22988.00 yuan / ton on November 8, it increased by 1.05%.

Overview of zinc Market

On November 10, the spot market of zinc market was active and traded near the average price. The supply of goods circulating in the market decreased, and the willingness of traders to receive goods decreased significantly. The downstream purchase was mainly on demand, and the overall transaction in the market was general. The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters weakened, and the domestic zinc smelting output is expected to decline; The electricity price in Europe has decreased, the start-up of European zinc smelters is expected to rise, the output reduction of European zinc smelters is expected to decrease, and the global zinc supply is expected to increase; Domestic PMI decreased, domestic manufacturing production slowed down, and the supply and demand of zinc city were weak; The zinc price returned to the zinc price level in September; The market of galvanized sheet fell, and the demand of zinc market fell.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that: Recently, the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak, the zinc smelting and processing fee has decreased, the warehouse receipt inventory in Shanghai futures market and London LME market has continued to decrease, and the supply of zinc market has decreased; The transaction in the zinc market is general, and the demand in the zinc market is weakened. Zinc prices are expected to rise slightly in the future.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (November 9): 9966 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 9, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong moved downward slightly. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 9966 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 66 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.66%. On the 9th, the overall shipment performance of domestic n-butanol factories in Shandong was average, the downstream digested the early inventory, the preparation rhythm was slow, and the offer price of n-butanol in some factories decreased slightly.

Future forecast: at present, the negotiation of n-butanol in Shandong is relatively light, and the n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that the short-term n-butanol market is mainly consolidation and operation.

Zinc prices fell on November 8

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price fell on November 8, and the zinc market fell. On November 8, the zinc price was 22988.00 yuan / ton, down 0.62% from 23132 yuan / ton on November 5 of the previous trading day. Zinc market fell.

Overview of zinc Market

The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters weakened, and the domestic zinc smelting output is expected to decline; European Trafigura group reduced the output of zinc smelting by 50%, Glencore’s three zinc smelters staggered peak production, and the global zinc supply is expected to decrease; Reduction of social inventory of zinc ingots; PMI decreased, domestic manufacturing production slowed down, and the supply and demand of zinc city were both weak; The zinc price returned to the zinc price level in September; The market of galvanized sheet fell, and the demand of zinc market fell.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that: the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak, the galvanized sheet market is declining, the demand of zinc market is declining, the social inventory of zinc city is declining, the processing fee of zinc smelting is declining, the supply of zinc smelting is expected to decline, the overall supply of zinc city is decreasing, and the demand is weakening. The upward momentum of zinc market still exists, and the downward pressure is weakened. It is expected that the range of zinc price will fluctuate and adjust in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose this week. As of November 4, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12500 yuan / ton, up 2.46% from 12200 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29); This week, the aluminum fluoride market continued to rise and rose in shock.

Hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in October, and hydrofluoric acid continued to rise sharply in October. As of October 4, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 13890 yuan / ton, up 5.63% from 13150 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29); In the near future, the market of downstream refrigerants has maintained a high level, mainly on-site procurement on demand, with various advantages superimposed. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid may rise in the future. The price of hydrofluoric acid rises sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases.

High level drop of aluminum ingot

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of aluminum ingot hit a record high in the cycle on October 19 (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The aluminum price soared in the early stage, the aluminum price was high, the downstream undertaking was weak, and the fear of high was strong. Then the aluminum price plummeted. After the sharp drop, it was close to the price level in mid August. Based on the consideration of alumina cost, it is expected that the aluminum price will be strongly supported in the future, and the aluminum price may stabilize after a slight shock. The high price of electrolytic aluminum fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, and the risk of decline of aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise this week, fluctuates and rises sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases. The price range of downstream aluminum ingots fluctuated and stabilized, the demand for aluminum fluoride was general, and the momentum for aluminum fluoride to rise in the future was insufficient. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise slightly in the future.