Supply and demand slightly deadlocked, butanone market consolidated

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 10366 yuan / ton. Compared with November 28 (the participating price of butanone was 10333 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.32%.

This week, after the domestic butanone market rose slightly, it mainly operated stably. At the beginning of the week, the ex factory price of butanone in some factories in Shandong increased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. On November 29, the reference price of butanone in the domestic market was around 10200-14500 yuan / ton. The slight upward price did not significantly improve the overall trading atmosphere of butanone. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue was still cold, with sporadic small orders traded, supported by tight supply. Until the weekend, most butanone operators continued to make strong quotations, the supply and demand in the venue were slightly deadlocked, the overall operation was weak, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the intention to prepare goods was not high. As of December 2, The average ex factory price of domestic butanone is 10366 yuan / ton. There is little change in the overall price this week, and there is no significant fluctuation in the market.

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In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on December 1 was 112.68, the same as yesterday, down 2.15% from the highest point of 115.16 in the cycle (June 22, 2014), and up 123.31% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Upstream, this week, the domestic liquefied gas market in Shandong rose and fell each other. At the beginning of the week, on November 30, Shandong civil gas market rose steadily, and the sharp rise of international crude oil in the morning gave a significant boost to the market. The price of Shandong civil gas market was relatively low, and the downstream market bought goods on bargain hunting. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market was good, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, most of them had no sales pressure, their mentality was relatively strong, and some of them increased slightly. On the 2nd, the liquefied gas market in Shandong fell as a whole, the international crude oil fell, the market mentality was bad, and some manufacturers reduced their prices. As of December 2, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong was 5310 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared with November 29.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the stalemate between supply and demand in the domestic butanone market has been revealed. The butanone data division of the business society believes that the long-term effective support for the butanone market should also come from the improvement of the demand side. Therefore, in the future, more attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the demand side of butanone, and the short-term butanone market will continue to consolidate and operate.

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The cost side dragged down the market price of ammonium chloride in November

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market price of ammonium chloride fell in November. The price at the beginning of the month was around 1205 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was around 1145 yuan / ton, down 4.98%.

In November, the prices of urea and raw liquid ammonia fell sharply, which had a negative impact on ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4413 yuan / ton, down 14.03% from 5133 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of November 30, the domestic urea price was 2504 yuan / ton, down 10.32% from 2792 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

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In November, the downstream demand for ammonium chloride was slightly warmer than that in the early stage, but it was still weak. The construction of compound fertilizer industry was around 30 ~ 40%. The winter storage in Northeast China was started slowly, and the market procurement increased, but mostly small orders. However, the start-up of Lianhe soda enterprises was around 70%, which was higher than that in the early stage, and the supply side increased slightly.

Future forecast: ammonium chloride analysts of business society believe that at present, the impact of supply and cost on ammonium chloride is empty, and the start-up strength and quantity on the demand side are small. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market may be weak and slightly lower in the later stage.

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Macro risks increased and polyacrylamide market continued to be weak in November

On November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 110.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.24% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.86% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Crude oil fell sharply this month, the price of petrochemical raw materials continued to decline, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment decreased; Although the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products continued to adjust slightly, and the adjustment range of polyacrylamide market in November was small, only about 1.37%. According to the data monitoring of business society, polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fluctuated downward this month, of which the mainstream price on the 1st was about 18250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 18000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.37%. Recently, the macro level continues to be short, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the manufacturer’s price continues to adjust slightly downward.

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As shown in the figure above, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first went up and then down in November. There was a slight rebound at the end of the month, but the momentum was weak. On the whole, it showed a small upward trend this month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market on the 1st was about 15433.33 yuan / ton, and the main quotation on the 30th was about 15716.67 yuan / ton, up 1.84% on a monthly basis; It is reported that the recent startup rate of manufacturers is the lowest in the year, and the main manufacturers have concentrated accidental maintenance of devices in the fourth quarter, and the output has not increased significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month. According to the analysis of business agency, although the price of raw material propylene has occasionally increased recently, the overall decline of propylene price since November is the main. In addition, the recent international crude oil decline risk is high. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid first fell and then rose in November. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 18733.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 30th was 17000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 9.25%. The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is slightly weak, the inventory of production plants is low, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic LNG fell in November, and the price generally showed a trend of decline rise flat. The average price of domestic LNG on the 1st was 8276.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on the 29th was 6990 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 15.55% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. According to the analysis of the business agency, the domestic LNG market operated weakly as a whole in November, the market trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price fluctuated lower. Although the cost was still supported, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced the price for shipment to find a good profit. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term, maintaining a weak trend of shock.

As for the future, crude oil fell sharply, the macro level continued to weaken, the price of raw materials decreased, the market support was insufficient, and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the continued weak trend of polyacrylamide; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the macro weak environment, the polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term.

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The trading was flat in November, and the price of LNG fell

1、 Price trend

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According to the monitoring data of business agency: on November 29, the average price of domestic LNG was 7100 yuan / ton, down 14.22% from the beginning of the month and up 96.49% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell, and the price generally showed a decline rise flat trend. The decline in the month was 14.22%, and the focus shifted downward. The price decline this month was mainly caused by poor demand, flat market trading and increased inventory of liquid plant. The price fluctuated and fell. During this period, it rebounded due to cost support, but there was no obvious inflection point, and the market was still weak. In the first week, the demand was sluggish, and the market supply increased due to the start-up and sales of Huanggang, Hubei Province. The domestic liquid price fell by about 8% during the week; In the second week, due to the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory of the liquid factory was controllable and the shipping atmosphere was improved. The price of the liquid factory increased by 7.44% during the week; From the third week to the end of the month, the domestic liquid price did not continue to rise, the downstream receiving capacity was insufficient, the purchasing mood became weak, the liquid factory shipment was not smooth, the price stopped rising and stabilized, and fluctuated in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the final transaction price of feed gas auction was 4.63-4.64 yuan / m3. The cost was reduced, which continued to be bad for the domestic liquid market, and the price continued to fall.

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from September 6 to November 28, 2021 that the rise and fall of domestic liquefied natural gas show each other in the cycle. The rise was as high as 17.75% in the week of October 11, and then stopped rising and turned into falling, which is quite volatile.

At present, 7050-7250 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7000-7200 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 6900-7500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7110-7200 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7000-7200 yuan / ton in Hebei, 7100-7300 yuan / ton in Henan and 7350-7500 yuan / ton in Shandong. The price of air inlet is about 6400-7900 yuan / ton.

region Specifications November 29th November 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 7050-7250 8000-8500 – 450/-1250

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 7000-7200 8270-8900 – 1270/-1700

Shanxi liquified natural gas 6900-7500 8300-8800 – 1400/-1300

Ningxia liquified natural gas 7110-7200 7900-8500 – 790/-1300

Henan liquified natural gas 7100-7300 8500-8900 – 1400/-1600

Hebei liquified natural gas 7000-7200 8100-8600 – 1100/-1400

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the domestic methanol market fell unilaterally in November, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3156 yuan / ton at the beginning of November and 2692 yuan / ton at the end of November. The price decreased by 14.72% and increased by 27.58% year-on-year. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term.

Liquid ammonia, on the 29th, the market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable, and the market price basically maintained the level of last week. The quotations of most manufacturers were not adjusted. The dealers mainly offered low and flat prices, and the downstream procurement took the goods normally and just needed to purchase. At present, with the increase of manufacturers’ shipments, there are more sources of goods in the market and the inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4100-4300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the ammonia price may continue to be weak and stable in the near future.

Urea, upstream coal prices are stable, LNG prices have increased slightly recently, and cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was slow, and large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plants. The inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers is high, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and the urea output will decline. On the whole, the urea cost support is general, the downstream demand is mainly just demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced. In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea price may rise slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analysts of business agency, the overall domestic LNG market in November was weak, the trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price went down. Although the cost support was ok, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced prices and made good shipments. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to maintain a weak trend of shock in the short term

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Acrylonitrile market price fell slightly (11.19-11.26)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell slightly this week (11.19-11.26). As of November 26, the acrylonitrile price was 15633 yuan / ton, down 1.78% from 15916 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

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The price of raw propylene rose slightly, supported by the cost side. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 26, the domestic propylene price was 7742 yuan / ton, up 1.86% from 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Downstream acrylic fiber, nitrile rubber and other industries are mostly purchased on demand, and the offer of market traders is adjusted in a narrow range.

The listing price of some acrylonitrile manufacturers in November was slightly higher than that in October, and the market quotation changed slightly.

Listing price of domestic acrylonitrile in November

enterprise Listing price in November (yuan / ton)

Fushun Petrochemical sixteen thousand and five hundred

Anqing Petrochemical fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Zhejiang Petrochemical fourteen thousand and seven hundred

Shanghai SECCO fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Jilin Petrochemical fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Kollur fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Haijiang, Shandong fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Silbon fourteen thousand and eight hundred

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that although the price of raw propylene rose this week, the overall decline of propylene price has been dominated since November. In addition, the risk of international crude oil falling in the near future is high, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to fall in the later stage.

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Lithium iron phosphate continued to be stable this week

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 25, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 89000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market price of lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, the overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was normal, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the manufacturers actively delivered goods.

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This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer shipped actively. At present, the supply side is normal, the focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream just needs procurement, the procurement atmosphere is general, the focus of the upstream market is high, the price rises, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is stable and small.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate rises slightly, the center of gravity is high, the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state, and it is expected that the price of short-term lithium carbonate is still in a strong consolidation state.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term and the price fluctuation is limited. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

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The market atmosphere is acceptable, and the polyethylene spot market is stable and rising

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8990.00 yuan / ton on November 14 and 9040.00 yuan / ton on November 19, with an increase of 0.56% during the week and 1.35% compared with November 1.

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According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 12312.50 yuan / ton on November 14 and 12462.50 yuan / ton on November 19, with an increase of 1.22% during the week and 4.40% compared with November 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8833.33 yuan / ton on November 14 and 8833.33 yuan / ton on November 19. The price was stable during the week, down 0.38% compared with November 1.

In the middle of November, the three domestic polyethylene spot varieties rose steadily, with different trends. Among them, LDPE in East China showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing, LLDPE showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and HDPE operated smoothly in the week. On the whole, there was little fluctuation, and the price was mainly arranged in a narrow range. Due to more maintenance of high-voltage devices, the import volume has decreased, the price trend of LDPE is strong, and it has increased successively at the beginning of the week, and the price has stabilized in the later part of the week. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises will be adjusted in a narrow range within a week, with a range of about 50-200 yuan / ton. At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is acceptable, and the downstream makes up for it as needed. There is little pressure on supply, and petrochemical inventory is at a medium level. In terms of demand, plastic film is in the off-season of demand, the peak season of pipe demand is coming to an end, agricultural film is in the peak season of demand, and factory orders have increased.

Liansu futures fell first and then rose this week, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On November 19, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8674, the highest price was 8924, the lowest price was 8594, the closing price was 8825, the former settlement price was 8718, the settlement price was 8734, up 107, or 1.23%, the trading volume was 753962, the position was 244762, and the daily position was increased by – 1792. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is acceptable, the market supply pressure is not large, the petrochemical inventory is mostly at the medium level, the demand for agricultural film is still in the peak season, and the orders of downstream factories have increased. In addition, the Liansu futures market rose in the late week, which has brought a certain boost to the spot market. PE spot market is expected to be dominated by strong prices in the short term.

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Propylene oxide Market Price stopped falling and rose back (11.16-11.23)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 23, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 13666.67 yuan / ton, up 0.49% compared with the previous trading day, down 13.50% compared with the price on Tuesday (November 16) and 24.63% compared with the price on October 23.

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Recently (11.16-11.23), the market price of propylene oxide first fell and then rose. Since the 16th, the price of raw propylene has gradually weakened, the cost support has gradually loosened, the market supply is relatively loose, the downstream is mainly cautious, the procurement enthusiasm is general, the market atmosphere is cold, and the price has fallen continuously under the pressure of the factory. At the beginning of this week, with the rise in the price of raw propylene, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream terminal followed up and picked up, and the inventory was gradually digested. The price of propylene oxide stopped falling and rose. On the 23rd, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 13300-13400 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on November 22, the reference price of propylene was 7650.50, up 0.65% compared with last Friday, down 1.82% compared with November 16, and down 6.42% compared with November 1 (8175.50).

Downstream propylene glycol, the domestic propylene glycol market was running upward on November 22. According to the data monitoring chart of business society, the domestic propylene glycol market was running upward on November 22. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 18600 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 1.64%; Downstream soft foam polyether, the mainstream quotation of soft foam polyether market in Shandong on November 23 was around 14000-14300 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is rising, the cost support is rising, and the manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be stable and good in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

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The price of refined petroleum coke continued to decline this week (11.15-11.21)

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to decline this week. On November 21, the average price of Shandong market was 2595.75 yuan / ton, which was 10.90% lower than that of 2913.25 yuan / ton on November 15.

On November 21, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 201.89, the same as yesterday, down 23.00% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 201.82% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the trading of refineries was general, the refinery shipment was positive, and the local refined petroleum coke price continued to decline.

Upstream: international oil prices fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil fell by 6.97% and Brent crude oil fell by 4.80%. Although the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data was positive last week, the main concern was the epidemic in Europe and the United States wanted to release strategic crude oil reserves with major economies. The short market atmosphere still put pressure on oil prices.

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Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell this week; Metal silicon market continues to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of November 21, the price was 18553.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the energy sector in the 46th week of 2021 (11.15-11.19), and the top 3 commodities are naphtha (4.70%), diesel (3.82%) and gasoline (2.73%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 5 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 12.35%), petroleum coke (- 10.90%) and asphalt (- 10.26%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.94%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has fallen recently, refineries are actively shipping, and the trading is general. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, the price of calcined coke fell, the metal silicon market continued to decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the goods were prepared carefully. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.

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PVC market price stopped falling and turned up, and the market recovered (11.15-11.19)

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9120 yuan / ton on November 19, down 120 yuan / ton compared with 9240 at the beginning of the week, down 1.3% during the week and up 14.9% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

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The PVC market continued to decline this week, stopped falling and rebounded near the weekend, and the price rose slightly. This round of rise is mainly driven by the disk. The sharp rise of futures prices has boosted market sentiment, as well as the rise of raw material prices and the improvement of market trading atmosphere, which support the current PVC price from decline to rise. Recently, futures prices continued to fall, dampening market sentiment. PVC prices fell again and again, and the offer of cargo holders continued to fall, with the price below 9000 yuan. Near the weekend, PVC futures soared by 7%, boosting the spot market. The price rose by 1.22% compared with the previous day. The increase range of enterprises was about 50-200 yuan / ton. The current quotation was mostly in the range of 8900-9600 yuan / ton. Some enterprises closed and stopped reporting, and the market rebounded. At present, the downstream demand is general, but the PVC price continues to decline, the demand for bargain hunting replenishment increases, and under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the market trading atmosphere improves. In addition, the raw calcium carbide rises to 5200 yuan / ton, and there is an upward trend, the cost support is becoming stronger, and the PVC market warms up.

In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8900-9600 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9150-9500 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9500-9600 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9660-9760 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China rebounded and rose.

At present, CFR China is down 160 at 1490 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia is down 200 at 1550 USD / T, and CFR India is down 190 at 1710 USD / T.

On November 15, international oil prices rose and fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.

For ethylene, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of ethylene was 1164.75 US dollars / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of ethylene was 1152.00 US dollars / ton, down 1.09%. The current price fell 0.24% month on month, and the current price rose 49.71% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: Recently, the crude oil market has fallen sharply and the cost support is weak, so the data analysts of the business society expect the external price of ethylene to fall mainly below.

On November 11, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose, the price of blue carbon in the upstream fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream stopped falling and rose, and the demand for calcium carbide strengthened.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the operating load of PVC enterprises has increased to a certain extent, the output has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved after the price has decreased. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has increased slightly, the cost support has gradually increased, and the negative factors are becoming weaker. It is expected that the PVC market will run in a strong shock in the short term.

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