Cobalt prices rose sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply after the festival, and the cobalt market rose. As of February 14, the average price of cobalt was 529700 yuan / ton, up 5.43% from 502400 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. The off-season of new energy vehicles is not light, and the price of cobalt rose sharply after the festival.

Rising international cobalt prices

Time Category specification . minimum price. Rise and fall . The highest price Up and down Company

February 4th . Standard grade cobalt . thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 4 Alloy grade cobalt . thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 USD / lb

February 7 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 7th . Alloy grade cobalt thirty-four point three . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 8 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0.1. thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 8 Alloy grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0.1. thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 9 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 9 Alloy grade cobalt thirty-four point four . 0 . thirty-four point eight . 0 . USD / lb

February 10 Standard grade cobalt thirty-four point five . 0.1. thirty-five zero point two . USD / lb

February 10 Alloy grade cobalt . 34.5. zero point one . thirty-five zero point two . USD / lb

February 11 Standard grade cobalt . thirty-four point five . 0 thirty-five 0 . USD / lb

February 11 Alloy grade cobalt . thirty-four point five . 0 thirty-five 0 USD / lb

From the MB cobalt price list, it can be seen that after the festival, the LME cobalt price resumed to rise, and the international electrolytic cobalt price rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt Market and increased the rising power of the domestic cobalt market.

New energy vehicles are not light in the off-season

From past experience, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the superposition of manufacturers’ impulse factors in December of the previous year, January is usually the off-season for the sales of new energy vehicles. Moreover, due to the decline of subsidies in 2022, the consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to decline significantly. However, from the perspective of sales this year, the off-season of the new energy vehicle market in January was not light, and new energy brands such as BYD, GAC AIAN and Xiaopeng achieved sales growth in January. BYD, for example, sold 92900 new energy vehicles in January, second only to 93945 in December last year, ranking second in the monthly sales list in history. The sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, the demand of cobalt market increased, and the rise of cobalt price supported greatly.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that the off-season of new energy vehicles is not light, the rising demand of cobalt Market stimulates the sharp rise of domestic cobalt price, and the compound rise of MB cobalt price is good for the domestic cobalt market. In the future, the demand growth of cobalt market exceeded expectations, the support for the rise of cobalt price increased, and the shock rise of cobalt price in the future.

From January 28 to February 11, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased by 8.13% from 5999 yuan / ton last weekend to 6487 yuan / ton this weekend.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

February 11, 7950.,-150

On February 11, 2021, the listing price of pure benzene of Sinopec was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical was 7900 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on February 10, international crude oil futures prices rose and fell. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed up slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $89.88/barrel, up US $0.22 or 0.25%. Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $91.41/barrel, down US $0.14 or 0.15%. Previous data showed that the US crude oil inventory fell unexpectedly, the demand for refined oil reached a record high, and the demand supported the strengthening of oil prices; But at the same time, crude oil is constrained by Iran’s return to the international market and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. At present, the market is intertwined and the oil market is anxious.

After the opening of the festival, the price of crude benzene was corrected as a whole. The bidding price increased significantly this week. The mainstream price in Shandong was 6580 ~ 6585 yuan / ton, up 370 yuan / ton from the last bidding price. During the Spring Festival, crude oil rose sharply, driving the price of pure benzene higher. After the festival, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, and the hydrogenated benzene market rose, boosting the confidence of the industrial chain. And there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival. Under the support of multiple benefits, the bidding price increased significantly this week.

In the future, the downstream demand of fundamentals is OK, but the pure benzene market has a slight correction, coupled with the impact of production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games, the negative factors have increased, and the demand for crude benzene is expected to decrease in the future, which may have room for decline.

From January 28 to February 10, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 74500 yuan / ton last weekend and 75000 yuan / ton this weekend, with an increase of 500 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

The antimony ingot Market has entered a period of shock consolidation since the end of November. The market has a strong game mentality. Near the end of the year, some businesses have the demand to return funds. Therefore, the price was reduced before the year, the downstream manufacturers entered the holiday earlier, and the overall trading of the market is limited. After the opening of the market after the festival, the downstream did not return to the market for the time being, but the production of mainstream enterprises in Guangxi at the supply side was affected to a certain extent, the market supply was expected to decline, and the price of antimony ingot began to rise slightly. However, the downstream purchase intention is slightly lower, and it is still based on demand, and the overall transaction is limited. Focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises in the future.

Price trend

After the festival, the domestic propylene market ushered in a wave of rise, in which propylene (Shandong) rose to 8300-8350 yuan / ton. The long-span rise in prices is mainly affected by two factors. First, crude oil prices rose strongly during the Spring Festival, forming obvious support on the cost side; Second, the supply and demand side of propylene has not been fully restored, some propylene plants have not returned to work, and the transportation is not smooth due to festivals and weather, resulting in tight supply in the region and further contributing to the rise of propylene.

Forecast: in terms of cost and supply and demand, there is still some room for propylene to rise in the short-term market.

On February 8, the rare earth index was 880 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 12.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and up 224.72% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The domestic rare earth index rose, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 955000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 940000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1080000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium was 1.17 million yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.27 million yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide was 3.035 million yuan / ton, dysprosium ferroalloy was 3.01 million yuan / ton, and dysprosium metal was 3.83 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market increased, and the recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market was temporarily stable, the price of terbium series increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will mainly rise in the later stage.

Domestic cobalt price rose on February 7

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on February 7, and the cobalt market rose slowly. On February 7, the price of cobalt was 505400 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton or 0.60% compared with 502400 yuan / ton before the festival; After the festival, the cobalt market recovered and the cobalt price rose slowly.

Key points of analysis

The international cobalt price has risen, and the price difference at home and abroad has increased; The national subsidy for new energy has declined by 30%, the consumption of new energy vehicles may decline, the demand growth of cobalt market slows down, the mobile phone market recovers after the festival, and the strong demand of cobalt market still exists.

Future forecast

Demand growth, cobalt prices are expected to rise.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on January 27 was 5275 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of January 24, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 643500 tons, a decrease of 20100 tons or 3.03% compared with last Monday and 14300 tons or 2.17% compared with last Thursday.

On January 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5210 yuan / ton, up 108 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The international oil price fell on Thursday, the soaring momentum of the energy market was technically corrected, the coal supply in the power coal region was tightened, there were few available sources of goods, the price rose, and the cost side was supported to a certain extent. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival holiday in the downstream, weaving production stagnated and production and sales were flat. Affected by coal and ethylene, the price of ethylene glycol is driven upward. At present, the port is going to the warehouse in a narrow range, and there is a large amount of arrival in the later stage. It is expected that the warehouse will be accumulated during the Spring Festival.

Forecast: wide range shock.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of January 26, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.96% compared with the price on January 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.14% in a three-month cycle.

The market of epichlorohydrin rose in January. In the first ten days, the raw material propylene rose steadily, the glycerol market was ok, some enterprises reduced the load and stopped, the market spot supply was tight, the downstream inquiry and procurement were active, the supply of low-cost goods was difficult to find, and the price rose. In the middle of the year, with the restart of the early-stage shutdown device, the downstream was mainly on the sidelines, the replenishment was cautious, the market mentality was bearish on the future expectations, and the price of epichlorohydrin rose to a high level and fell back. In the last ten days, the cost side support weakened. With the successive holidays of downstream terminals, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement weakened, the market trading atmosphere was light, and the market was stable and weak.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene was 7770.80 on January 25, up 2.94% compared with January 1 (7548.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, on January 26, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was sorted out, and the negotiation was 27500-28000 yuan / ton. The opening of raw material bisphenol A was stable, and the on-site offer was 18550 yuan / ton. There was a lack of real orders in the on-site, and the negotiation was cold. Cyclic chlorine went down. Downstream factories have holiday plans, and most of the sites are dominated by orders. Resin Market negotiations are quiet and pay attention to the actual orders in the site.

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business agency believes that at present, the raw material propylene is weak, the price of glycerol is stable, and the cost support is general. The Spring Festival is approaching, a small amount of downstream just needs to be followed up, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin Market may be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 25th, the nickel price plummeted, of which the spot price was 166750 yuan / ton, down 7.5% from the previous trading day, and the nickel futures price fell sharply. Earlier, nickel prices rose sharply by more than 180000 yuan / ton.

At present, the fundamentals of nickel have not changed much. At present, there is still a shortage of supply and strong demand for green energy. The high price of nickel has dropped, which is mainly affected by several reasons:

The handling fee of the deposit raised in the previous period

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that since the closing and settlement on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, the proportion of trading margin and the range of price limit will be adjusted. The proportion of trading margin of nickel, tin and stainless steel futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% and the range of price limit will be adjusted to 12%.

Qingshan high nickel matte shipping

The first batch of high nickel matte products in morowali Park, Castle Peak, Indonesia were collected at the port and officially loaded and shipped home. At present, there are 3 high nickel matte production lines in morowali Park, with a monthly nickel metal production capacity of about 3000 tons. It is preliminarily understood that in addition to the existing production lines, Indonesia Castle Peak Park plans to build several new production lines in the future. This is the first shipment of products other than samples since the announcement of Qingshan high nickel matte in March last year. Previously, Castle Peak signed an agreement with Huayou and Zhongwei on the annual supply of 75000 tons of high nickel matte, with the supply period from October 2021 to October 2022. It is understood that the total shipping volume is about 500 tons.

Affected by multiple factors such as Qingshan high nickel matte shipment, the increase of margin handling fee in the previous period, and the decline of European and American stock markets caused by the tense situation in Ukraine, the high nickel price fell. However, the large-scale production of high nickel matte still takes time, and the fundamentals have little impact for the time being. Nickel prices are expected to rise and fall, mainly based on capital game, and maintain a shock pattern in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose first and then fell this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 16520.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16647.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol rose this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17000 yuan / ton, which fell by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 15142 yuan / ton, which was 582 yuan / ton higher than that at the weekend. The distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17800 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 16833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 13666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3166.66 yuan / ton, or 18.81%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may decline slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.