Aluminum prices continued to rise on the 11th

According to the data of business agency, on January 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 21633.33 yuan / ton, and yesterday’s average market price was 21240 yuan / ton, up 1.85%; Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1), an increase of 6.20%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 10.75% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 15.73% recently.

Main cause of recovery

The main reasons for the recovery of aluminum prices in this round: mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the European energy crisis, the rise of electricity prices caused by natural gas factors, resulting in the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”. Recently, the social inventory data of aluminum ingots have improved. As of the 10th, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 752000 tons, down 24000 tons from last Thursday; The increase in downstream enquiries and the superposition of the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival have supported the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum prices in the near future.

Future forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. The recent aluminum price trend is good, but it should not be too high. It is expected that the vibration is strong and the operation is dominated.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 10, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 15900.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fluctuated upward this week, which remained stable compared with the same period last week, and the DMF trend was stable, medium and strong in the short term.

This week, the DMF market operates smoothly, the price remains stable, and the focus of negotiation is flat. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. At present, the manufacturer has positive shipments, general inventory, stable operating rate, no pressure on inventory, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Upstream methanol: the trend is mainly stable. There is no obvious negotiation on the methanol market in Dongying, Shandong. Considering the impact of public health events, it is not ruled out that the price may continue to rise. The offer price of methanol in southern Shandong is 2530 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange nearby. The offer price of local goods in Linyi is about 2540 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. Logistics offers are rare. During the negotiation, downstream purchase on demand.

On January 9, the chemical index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.29% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 84.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the trend of DMF is stable and strong in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

The latest p value price of ethylene oxide on January 7 was 7300 yuan / ton.

Upstream ethylene stabilized. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1020 / T, that in Southeast Asia was US $1005 / T, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8000 yuan / T today, which was the same as that of the previous trading day.

The downstream monomer is light, the stock market has not started yet, the demand is poor, and there are few inquiries. In particular, the market demand in Northeast China has basically stagnated, the temperature in North China has dropped significantly, the market demand is coming to an end, some mixing plants have been shut down for holidays, and only a few key projects are still catching up. In some areas, due to the impact of environmental protection early warning, vehicle transportation and site construction are limited. Compared with the beginning of the week, hPEG decreased by 1.16%; TPEG fell 1.14%; Monoethanolamine; Diethanolamine; Triethanolamine was flat; AEO-9 fell 0.8%.

Ethylene oxide production and sales are under obvious pressure in the short term, and market uncertainties remain. Market participants predict that there may still be room for reduction before the festival, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the latest news guidelines of the factory.

Aluminum prices rose on the 6th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on January 6 was 20763.33 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from the average market price of 20323.33 yuan / ton on January 5; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 9.86%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 14.34% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 11.07% recently.

Aluminum price

The recent recovery of aluminum prices is mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the energy crisis in Europe. Natural gas factors led to the rise of electricity prices, which led to the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”.

According to the data, the removal of aluminum ingots to the warehouse is good, the domestic aluminum price has been callback sideways for a long time, the amount of downstream inquiries has increased, and the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival has been superimposed, supporting the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum price in the near future.

In 2021, the domestic ethyl acetate Market generally showed a fluctuating upward trend. Specifically, it rose in the first half of the year. There was a correction in the market from July to August, and it rose sharply in September, reaching a new high of more than five years. The market gradually fell in the fourth quarter and the market returned to rationality. According to the monitoring of business society, the annual increase of ethyl acetate reached 24.15%. The main reason is that the upstream cost is good and the downstream demand is improved.

Let’s take a look at the ethyl acetate Market in stages:

In the first half of the year, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose in shock, and the price rose from the lowest 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9800 yuan / ton in mid May, an increase of 3200 yuan / ton or 48.5%. Firstly, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is mainly driven by the price of raw acetic acid. In particular, the price of acetic acid in China has continued to rise since the fourth quarter of 2020. In the first half of this year, domestic acetic acid continued to rise, with an increase of more than 70% in the first half of this year. Affected by the shortage of supply, the price in Jiangsu once exceeded the 8000 mark, reaching the highest level in recent ten years. The sharp rise of acetic acid directly drives the downstream ethyl ester to rise. However, it is obvious that the increase of ethyl ester is far less than that of acetic acid. Therefore, ethyl ester manufacturers have been in the stage of loss for a long time. In terms of demand, the market recovered gradually in the later stage of the epidemic, the downstream demand increased, the rigid demand for raw materials in the terminal market was still in progress, and the output of ethyl acetate was significantly higher than that of last year. This year, the output of ethyl acetate was about 900000 tons, up 12.5% year-on-year.

7. In August, the price of ethyl acetate began to fall, and the price fell from the highest point of 9800 yuan to 7200 yuan, a decrease of more than 17%. This period of time is in the traditional off-season of the market, and the downstream demand slows down. At the same time, the repeated epidemic situation in Jiangsu and other places has brought certain restrictions to market transportation. The shipment of manufacturers has been affected, and the price has begun to fall sharply. At the same time, it is also the resistance of the downstream that forces the high price.

Then, September ushered in the largest increase of the whole year. According to the monitoring of business society, ethyl acetate rose by 30% in less than a month from September 1 to 24. The price reached the highest point of the whole year, 10850 yuan / ton, which is also the highest point in recent five years. On the one hand, “golden nine” traditional consumption peak season. The main reason is that the short-term serious supply shortage has brought about the rapid development of prices. With the implementation of the dual control policy, in September, ethyl acetate units in Shandong, Jiangsu and South China markets stopped or reduced their load in a large area, and the overall operating rate of the market fell to an unprecedented low, less than 30%. At the same time, the price of raw acetic acid rose sharply and the cost soared. And downstream factories prepare goods before the festival, and the downstream demand has increased unabated. Multiple positive factors helped the ethyl ester Market reach a new high.

In the fourth quarter, the ethyl acetate market began to callback, and the price fell all the way, from 10850 yuan to 8800 yuan / ton. The decrease was about 2000 yuan. On the one hand, acetic acid opens the downward channel, which is bad for the downstream ethyl ester. More importantly, the contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent, and the increase of supply pressure leads to the continuous price reduction and inventory arrangement of enterprises, and the market price keeps falling. Although the Thorpe unit was overhauled in November, the operating rate of domestic units was generally high and the market supply was sufficient. However, affected by the weather, the terminal enterprises are in the off-season of production, the new orders are limited, and the downstream procurement slows down gradually, which brings bad news to ethyl acetate. The contradiction between supply and demand has led to a long-term decline in the price of ethyl acetate.

2022 outlook

In terms of cost, there may be more new capacity of glacial acetic acid in the upstream in the future, which is expected to suppress the price in the future, which will alleviate the profit situation of ethyl ester plants in the downstream to a certain extent. At the same time, the price of acetic acid is expected to return to rationality, which will also suppress the price of ethyl acetate to a certain extent.

In terms of supply and demand, at present, the concentration of domestic ethyl acetate industry is high, and there is overcapacity. Although some enterprises have withdrawn from the market in recent years, the market supply pressure has been reduced. However, the pressure on the supply side has not been completely resolved in the future, and some production capacity still needs to be put into operation in the future. Zhuhai Qianxin ethyl acetate plant with an annual output of 300000 tons is planned to be put into operation in 2022. It is expected that the market supply will still be in a loose pattern in 2022. Domestic demand will continue to grow in 2022, but the increase is likely to slow down. It is comprehensively expected that the price of domestic ethyl acetate next year may be weaker than this year, and the amplitude will be further reduced.

In December, the domestic Shunding market was weak and fell. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber at the beginning of the month was 16120 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 14290 yuan / ton, down 11.35% from the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the supply of polybutadiene rubber is relatively loose; On the other hand, the downstream start-up is reduced, and the demand for Shunding is weak; In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, dragging the cost side. Since December, Shunding enterprises have successively reduced the ex factory price of Shunding rubber. As of December 31, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported to be 14000 yuan / ton; Market traders followed suit.

According to the business agency, the parking enterprises in the early stage of the month gradually restarted. Although some devices stopped briefly, the overall construction started by the end of the month was higher than that in the early stage, and the supply side became loose.

Butadiene, the raw material, fell sharply in December, dragging down butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 31, the price of butadiene was 4451 yuan / ton, down 27.26% from 6120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. The price at the beginning of the month was 13770 yuan / ton, the low point in the month was 132250 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 13748 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side has become loose and the cost side has fallen sharply. It is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will be weak in the later stage.

DOTP prices fell sharply in December

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price fell sharply in December, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of December 31, the price of DOTP was 9775 yuan / ton, down 13.78% from 11337.50 yuan / ton on December 1; Insufficient demand, DOTP prices continued to fall.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic isooctanol fell sharply in December, down 12.39%. The market is cautious in purchasing high-end prices. There are few new orders in the market, mainly contract orders, deadlock in high price spot negotiations, more bearish on the floor, and downstream customers just need small orders. The transaction of isooctanol was cold, the price of isooctanol fell, the cost of plasticizer DOTP fell, and DOTP fell under great pressure.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices rose in December, and the rise of international crude oil prices stimulated PTA prices to follow. On the demand side, PTA is still in the off-season of the market, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. The space for PTA price rise is limited, and PTA aftermarket price consolidation is the main trend. PTA prices of raw materials rose, and the cost of DOTP rose in December, which was good for the DOTP market. It is expected to consolidate in the future, but the good for DOTP is limited.

PVC market fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price fluctuated and fell in December, and the PVC price stabilized and the decline slowed down in late October. The PVC market has entered a weak finishing pattern. PVC is weak, the spot market is general, the demand for plasticizer is insufficient, and the DOTP market is bad. With the Spring Festival approaching in January, PVC related manufacturers may have holidays in advance, the demand for DOTP has declined, and the bad market of DOTP has increased.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, PTA price of DOTP raw material rose in December, the decline of isooctanol price slowed down and stabilized, and DOTP cost has a certain positive support; On the demand side, the price of PVC fell, the demand for plasticizer remained cold, and the Spring Festival in January was approaching, the downstream customers were about to stop production on holiday, and the future demand was expected to decline. Overall, the cost of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized, the demand is expected to decline, the downward pressure of DOTP market has increased, and it is expected that the future DOTP market will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in December was 2320.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2801.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month. It decreased by 480.50 yuan / ton during the month, with a monthly increase of 20.70%.

On December 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 217.88, up 0.98 points from yesterday, down 16.90% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 225.73% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in December, refined petroleum coke continued to rise sharply. Recently, the local refineries have good shipments and positive transactions. The inventory of some refineries is low, and the price continues to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply in December, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices remained stable as a whole in December, with signs of pushing up at the end of the month; The silicon metal market fell sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose. As of December 31, the price was 20370.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the international crude oil is rising, the petroleum coke price is supported by the cost, and the recent local refining manufacturers have good shipments and rising prices. At present, the downstream pre Festival procurement and the inventory in the local refining market are low. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly today (December 30). The average market price in East China was 4937 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from the previous day and 36.23% year-on-year. The main force of PTA futures 2205 closed at 4958 and settled at 4956, up 48 or 0.98%.

On December 29, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $76.56/barrel, up US $0.58 or 0.76%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $79.21/barrel, up US $0.54 or 0.69%. Oil prices reached the highest closing record in the last five weeks, and the inventory data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) were positive, showing that the inventory of US crude oil and refined oil fell last week, overshadowing the concern that the rapid spread of Omicron may reduce demand.

Statistics of recent changes in PTA plants in China

In terms of PTA supply, with the restart of some PTA units, the current start-up of PTA industry has increased to 80%. Recently, Yadong and Ineos will restart, and there are few maintenance plans for PTA unit in January. PTA spot supply side will increase, and there is an expectation of accumulated inventory.

Boosted by the price of raw materials, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. However, the terminal demand is still weak. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the number of terminal orders decreases, some factories have holidays, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region drops to around 60%, the follow-up of raw material procurement is insufficient, and the actual trading volume slows down.

Business analysts believe that short-term crude oil is strong and volatile, and PTA cost support still exists. However, the PTA plant is restarted to increase the load, and the supply may increase again. In addition, there is a possibility of early holiday in the downstream, it is difficult to improve the polyester operating rate, the supply and demand of PTA is weak, and it is expected that the probability of continuous upward rise of PTA price is small.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 29, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 13200.00 yuan / ton, down 22.35% compared with that on December 1, and 28.13% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

After the sharp decline of acrylic acid Market in December, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the market was weak and stable. With the price of raw propylene rising first and then falling, the supply of acrylic acid is sufficient, coupled with the weak follow-up of downstream demand, the market inquiry and transaction are depressed, and the price has fallen sharply. In the second half of the month, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream units were force majeure, the export inquiry turned better, the prices of some enterprises increased, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market inquiry and transaction performance were general.

For upstream propylene, on December 29, the reference price of propylene was 7544.60, a decrease of 0.01% compared with December 1 (7545.50). On the 29th, the trend of propylene (Shandong) was stable and small, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7550-7600 yuan / ton. The crude oil fluctuated upward, and the propylene price increased compared with that of last week under the boost of cost. However, the recent horizontal consolidation of mainstream downstream polypropylene made it difficult to significantly improve the propylene procurement.

Acrylic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, with little impact on the cost, and the downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be consolidated and operated stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.