1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 25th, the nickel price plummeted, of which the spot price was 166750 yuan / ton, down 7.5% from the previous trading day, and the nickel futures price fell sharply. Earlier, nickel prices rose sharply by more than 180000 yuan / ton.

At present, the fundamentals of nickel have not changed much. At present, there is still a shortage of supply and strong demand for green energy. The high price of nickel has dropped, which is mainly affected by several reasons:

The handling fee of the deposit raised in the previous period

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that since the closing and settlement on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, the proportion of trading margin and the range of price limit will be adjusted. The proportion of trading margin of nickel, tin and stainless steel futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% and the range of price limit will be adjusted to 12%.

Qingshan high nickel matte shipping

The first batch of high nickel matte products in morowali Park, Castle Peak, Indonesia were collected at the port and officially loaded and shipped home. At present, there are 3 high nickel matte production lines in morowali Park, with a monthly nickel metal production capacity of about 3000 tons. It is preliminarily understood that in addition to the existing production lines, Indonesia Castle Peak Park plans to build several new production lines in the future. This is the first shipment of products other than samples since the announcement of Qingshan high nickel matte in March last year. Previously, Castle Peak signed an agreement with Huayou and Zhongwei on the annual supply of 75000 tons of high nickel matte, with the supply period from October 2021 to October 2022. It is understood that the total shipping volume is about 500 tons.

Affected by multiple factors such as Qingshan high nickel matte shipment, the increase of margin handling fee in the previous period, and the decline of European and American stock markets caused by the tense situation in Ukraine, the high nickel price fell. However, the large-scale production of high nickel matte still takes time, and the fundamentals have little impact for the time being. Nickel prices are expected to rise and fall, mainly based on capital game, and maintain a shock pattern in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose first and then fell this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 16520.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16647.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol rose this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17000 yuan / ton, which fell by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 15142 yuan / ton, which was 582 yuan / ton higher than that at the weekend. The distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17800 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 16833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 13666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3166.66 yuan / ton, or 18.81%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may decline slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6050 yuan / ton on January 17 and 6050 yuan / ton on January 21. The price of chlorinated paraffin was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the supply of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased, the market demand was poor, and the cost price decreased. The overall trend of chlorinated paraffin is weak and stable, and the manufacturer mainly sells at a stable price. As of January 21, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 6300 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 7100 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 5600 yuan / ton, that in South China is 5600-6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 5000-5400 yuan / ton, The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 6000-6500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose and fell this week, and the overall market was stable. The market mentality is good and there is little fluctuation in the short term. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell this week. There is sufficient supply in the site and insufficient downstream demand. The price of liquid chlorine may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffins of business society believe that at present, the price of raw liquid chlorine is lower and the cost support is weakened. The demand for downstream goods preparation is poor, and the manufacturer mainly delivers goods smoothly. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the chlorinated paraffin will be in weak finishing operation in the short term, and there will be no great change in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on January 20 is 5325 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of January 17, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 663600 tons, a decrease of 39400 tons, a decrease of 5.60%, and 45200 tons, a decrease of 6.38%, compared with last Thursday.

On January 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5305 yuan / ton, up 112.5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 138.67 yuan / ton compared with last week.

The crude oil is in strong operation, and the superimposed ethylene glycol is in good condition to go to the warehouse. In the afternoon, the price center of MEG outer plate rises slightly, and the recent ship offer is around 710 US dollars / ton. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the demand side performance is flat, coupled with the restart of a 300000 t / a syngas MEG unit in Shaanxi, the two 500000 t MEG units in Fujian and Ningbo are expected to restart this weekend, and the supply is expected to increase, limiting the upward space.

Forecast: shock consolidation.

According to the data of business society, the price of soda ash in 2021 shows a trend of first rising and then restraining. As can be seen from the ten-year price chart of soda ash, the price of light soda ash in 2021 has reached a high level in the past ten years, the highest point in the year is on November 6, and the average market price is about 3687.5 yuan / ton. From January to August, the price of soda ash was still at a relatively low level, which was not conspicuous. Since August, the price began to rise by leaps and bounds. Prices fell from the end of October.

From the monthly K column chart of soda ash, in 2021, the overall price of soda ash increased by more months and decreased by less months. Only in May, November and December did prices fall, while in other months they mainly rose. And the highest increase in September reached 34.05%.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average market price of soda ash at the beginning of the year was about 1340 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 2700 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 101.49%.

From January to March, the price of domestic soda ash rose. On the one hand, the total inventory of domestic soda ash is large, but the regional distribution is uneven, and the inventory of some manufacturers is tight, resulting in a rise in prices; On the other hand, the rise of glass prices in the downstream has driven the demand for soda ash prices. The downstream has resumed production and transportation, and the market atmosphere is good. The recent rise in glass prices has a certain pulling effect on soda ash.

From April to June, it runs relatively smoothly from April to May. The operating rate was stable and the glass price was consolidated. In June, the price rose, the glass market price rose, driving the demand for raw material soda ash, and the downstream glass price rose, which was good for soda ash and supported the soda ash price.

From July to September, the high price of soda ash rose. Recently, affected by double control and power restriction, some soda ash enterprises shut down or reduce their units, the overall operating rate has decreased, and the short-term operating rate is expected to remain low. According to the data, the latest soda ash plant warehouse is only 265600 tons, which is at an absolute low level in recent three years. However, the market expects that the double control measures such as power and production restriction in the main production areas will continue, the power and production restriction areas may expand, the soda ash output is expected to decline further, and the inventory will remain low. At present, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery is dominated by early orders. The price of raw salt in the upstream is affected by the dual control policy. Glass prices are weak. Glass protection and soda ash play a price game. They are resistant to high priced soda ash, but soda ash is mainly purchased on demand.

From October to December, the price rose by 15.32% in October. The main reason for the rise is the impact of the dual control policy. Then, the price of soda ash decreased in November and December, mainly due to the increase of soda ash inventory and the general market atmosphere. Downstream glass is mainly purchased on demand, with strong wait-and-see mood. He is resistant to high priced soda ash. At present, they are still resistant to the price of soda ash, and the manufacturers carry out one more single negotiation.

It can be seen from the upstream and downstream industrial chain diagram monitored by the business community that the demand side factors mainly focus on the downstream consumption of soda ash. Most domestic soda ash is used in industrial production, and the proportion can reach 96%. The mainstream consumers of soda ash are float glass and photovoltaic glass. Therefore, the downstream demand side of soda ash focuses on the glass industry. It is reported that soda ash accounts for about 30% of the production cost of float glass. Let’s take another look at the price rise and fall chart of soda ash industry chain tracked by business agency. It shows that the downstream corresponding to light soda ash has increased rapidly, which supports the spot soda ash price to a certain extent. Among them, sodium pyrosulfite increased by 62.38%, bromine increased by 59.43%, cryolite increased by 25.86%, baking soda increased by 84.41% and glass decreased by 10.22%.

Demand: glass fell from the fourth quarter. This is the price trend chart of glass in 2021. At the beginning of the year, the average price of glass market was 27.7 yuan / m2, and at the end of the year, the average price of glass market was 24.87 yuan / m2, with a decrease of 10.22%. The highest point in the year was on September 14, 38.75 yuan / square meter. Prices rose in the first, second and third quarters and began to decline in the fourth quarter.

Then look at the operating rate chart and inventory chart. From the operating rate, it can be seen that the operating rate of soda ash in 2021 will remain between 70-85%, and the operating rate will remain at a high level from January to May. It has declined since July, mainly because of the production and power restriction policy, manufacturers produce less soda ash.

As can be seen from the inventory chart, the inventory of soda ash was high at the beginning of the year, which reached about 1.1 million tons in February. The output decreased in August, September and October, about 200000-400000 tons. The inventory of soda ash showed an upward trend at the end of the year.

Analysts of business society believe that: soda ash forecast: from the current supply, the manufacturer’s operation is stable and there will be no large fluctuation in the operation rate. We will also attach great importance to the safety inspection before and after the Spring Festival. Soda ash will mainly maintain the weak consolidation operation before and after the Spring Festival. In terms of downstream glass, it is now affected by the general environment. With the increase of temperature, the epidemic situation will improve. In March next year, the global environment will improve, the demand for glass will pick up, or the demand for light soda ash will increase. At present, soda ash has a high opening rate, and the shutdown of Lianyungang plant may lead to a gap in soda ash next year. It is comprehensively estimated that soda ash may have a trend of first restraining and then increasing in 2022 next year, but the details still depend on the downstream demand.

Yesterday, the price of ethylene oxide was lowered. The latest ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China was 6900 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China was 7000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, on Monday, the CIF price of imported crude oil in Qingdao rose with the rise of the international crude oil futures market. The geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine ignited concerns about supply interruption and boosted oil prices. Despite the strength of crude oil, near the domestic Spring Festival, the ethylene market has sufficient supply, coupled with the bearish demand trend, and the market price has declined. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 925 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton compared with the price on the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $965 / ton. The quotation of Luxi Chemical and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today was 7300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.

Downstream, after a brief rebound in the monomer market yesterday morning, the market was impacted by the news of ethylene oxide falling price, and the price returned to the bottom for consolidation. At present, most downstream factories are waiting and waiting, and there is great pressure for manufacturers to support the market.

In terms of ethylene oxide, Sri Lanka has a short stop. It is expected to restart on the 26th. The restart of Yangzi, Zhenhai and Fude units is imminent. The supply side will be in large quantities. There are loose expectations for the supply side in East China.

Temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of January 16, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 11166.67 yuan / ton, down 4.56% from the average price of 11700.00 yuan / ton on January 10, down 36.43% from the same period last month, and there was a rebound trend in the second half of the week.

On January 16, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 105.19, the same as yesterday, down 36.80% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 105.53% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. Recently, the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, successively entering the shutdown period, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 16th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10700 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 10700 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 10700 yuan / ton. In the second half of the week, the domestic maleic anhydride market price callback, the factory has the intention to support the price, the spot is tight, and the transaction is positive.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. The average price of pure benzene was 7280 yuan / ton on January 7 and 7530 yuan / ton on January 14, an increase of 250 yuan / ton or 3.43% over last week. The market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose this week, at 7100 yuan / ton last weekend and 7400 yuan / ton this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5610.00 yuan / ton as of January 16.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price has been corrected in the second half of this week. The factory has the intention to support the price, the spot is tight, and the transaction is positive. However, the downstream resin is close to the shutdown cycle, the operating rate is down, and it just needs to slow down. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, on January 14, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 17000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 0.99% compared with the beginning of the month, and up 22.01% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market has operated steadily this week, and the price of raw phenol has increased recently. At present, the negotiated price reference is 11000-11200 yuan / ton, and the cost support has been strengthened. However, after the early increase, salicylic acid enterprises mostly focus on staying stable and waiting, and basically do not plan to make a significant price adjustment. Near the end of the year, the downstream demand has increased, the operator’s mentality is positive, and the market focus has moved upward. Up to now, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises is mostly in the range of 14000-19000 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade is mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade is mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on January 12, the focus of the domestic phenol Market weakened. The negotiation reference in East China was 11100 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation was mainly 11200 yuan / ton. On January 11, the market center weakened, and the negotiation price reference was 11000-11200 yuan / ton. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises was not high. The cargo holders declined slightly in the morning, made positive profits and shipped goods, and the focus decreased significantly in the afternoon.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that the current rise in raw material prices and good downstream demand support the upward shift of the focus of the salicylic acid market. However, after the early rise, most salicylic acid enterprises focus on the wait-and-see market. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will remain stable in the short term, with some upward expectations.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market was weak in early January, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of January 13, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 36250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.68% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China is relatively strong, mainly finishing, the price of raw material pure benzene is strong, and the cost side is slightly improved. However, large early maintenance plants have returned to work one after another, and the market supply is still abundant. The inventory of manufacturers and dealers increased, mainly making profit and shipping due to inventory pressure, and the downstream demand maintained rigid demand. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, the production load of domestic PA66 enterprises is restricted by adiponitrile.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is rising steadily, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. At present, the operating rate of the industry has recovered compared with that in the early stage, but the tight demand pattern of adiponitrile remains, and the operating rate of domestic PA66 industry is not high. The inventory in each port is insufficient. Affected by international health events, the overseas systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, and the domestic goods are in a long-term shortage situation. In terms of demand, buyers follow up slowly with goods, and there is great resistance to the transaction of high price goods. In addition, enterprises have holidays before the festival, the demand is gradually weakened, the seller’s mentality is loose, and the offer is weak.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 was weak in early January. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not been improved, and the adipic acid market is strong. The low load of PA66 enterprise due to material shortage has increased compared with that in the early stage, and the supply side’s support for spot goods is acceptable. However, downstream users have a deep resistance to high price sources, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. The downstream user’s goods preparation tide is in the late stage, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to adjust and operate in a weak position in the near future.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 312600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 335000 yuan / ton

Analysis: the price of lithium carbonate has been rising rapidly recently. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the maintenance period of lithium salt manufacturers has led to the continuous reduction of lithium salt output, but the price of lithium salt continues to rise under the background of strong downstream stock demand. At present, the downstream goods preparation in February and March in the market is slightly general, coupled with a small supply in the market, which will continue to promote the continuous rise of lithium salt prices

Forecast: at present, the output of lithium carbonate has declined for nine consecutive weeks, the gap between supply and demand is still widening, and the demand side of cathode material production scheduling still maintains a high boom. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise strongly in the short term.