Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 479400 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 503600 yuan / ton

Analysis: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has decreased slightly. In terms of supply, the increase of new capacity in the market continues, and the supply continues to rise. At present, the overall market demand is relatively weak, the market spot tension has eased, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to maintain stability. In terms of demand, the demand for the four cathode materials fell due to the reduction of orders. Smelting enterprises also delivered at low prices, leading to the decline of small and medium-sized lithium salt plants and traders. The upstream and downstream game in the market is loose.

Forecast: there is strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market, and there is no large-scale procurement. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may still be reduced in the short term.

Aluminum price lowered on April 11

According to the data of business agency, on April 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 21256.67 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 3.20%, a year-on-year increase of 21.42%, down 6.52% from the average market price of 22740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (4.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 4.35%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 12.31% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 13.71% recently.

Main reasons for aluminum price reduction on April 11

1. Foreign news

According to the data of Iran mining development and innovation organization, in the past 1400 years (as of March 20, 2022), the output of aluminum ingots in Iran was 538600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Among the four major producers in Iran, Iranian aluminum company ranks first, producing 177000 tons of aluminum ingots. At present, Iran is the 18th largest aluminum producer in the world. Iran plans to achieve an annual output of 1.5 million tons of aluminum ingots in 1404 (March 2025 March 2026).

2. Domestic data

(1) According to the inventory data, the main social inventory has remained above 1 million tons in the near future. At present, it has risen slightly, and the inventory is about 1.075 million tons; According to the delivery data of major regions, the domestic weekly delivery volume decreased month on month and year-on-year, and the delivery volume of Wuxi, Foshan and Gongyi decreased.

(2) In the early stage, the price was high, 23000 yuan mark. After many games between the supply and demand sides, the downstream operating rate has narrowed and suppressed the supply side in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10433 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10533 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price increase of 0.96%.

At present, the domestic price of activated carbon is strong. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12000 yuan / ton; Due to the improvement of local logistics and transportation restrictions and the enhancement of cost support, some terminal merchants replenished goods appropriately in the market, and the overall transaction improved.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell and straw. Activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon may be dominated by strong shock. Please contact the manufacturer for specific price consultation and negotiation.

On April 7, nylon filament continued its weak operation, and the price fell slightly. The supply of goods on the site is sufficient, the trading atmosphere is general, and the downstream end customers lack confidence in the future market, which still needs to be followed up.

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d / 24F)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of April 7, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D / 24F) in Jiangsu Province was 19780 yuan / ton; The quotation of nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) is 17225 yuan / ton; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d / 12F) is 20600 yuan / ton.

Outlook

Downstream purchase on demand, general demand, sufficient supply of goods on site, inventory pressure of some manufacturers, and cautious wait-and-see in the industry. Business analysts expect the nylon filament market to remain weak in the short term.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 481400 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 505600 yuan / ton

Analysis: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has remained stable, the current market operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply shows an upward trend. In the demand side market, the orders of cathode materials decreased slightly in April. In terms of iron and lithium, orders were affected due to the suspension of some terminal models and the high inventory of battery factories. The procurement demand of the material end in the overall market is relatively light.

Prediction: at present, the downstream has low acceptance of high price lithium carbonate, less market trading volume, the bidding enterprises still maintain strong price, and the upstream and downstream game mood is strong. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may be weak and adjusted by shock.

According to the data of business agency, from March 25 to April 2, the domestic MTBE market fell first and then stabilized. The overall decline was obvious. The MTBE price fell from 7975 yuan / ton to 7387 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 7.37%, the price fell by 1.37% month on month and increased by 29.76% year-on-year.

MTBE market stopped rising and fell, with a decline of 700-800 yuan / ton. The main reason for this week’s price reduction is that the crude oil fluctuates lower and the market mentality is bad; The transportation demand in some areas continues to be limited, resulting in poor shipment of merchants.

In terms of methanol, the methanol market opened high and went low this week, the crude oil fluctuated widely, and the weak demand led to the terminal’s resistance to receiving goods at high prices, and the domestic methanol market was slightly deadlocked.

Comparison chart of crude oil and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

Comparison chart of gasoline and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of diesel and MTBE price trend of business society:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on April 1, the closing price of Asian MTBE market decreased by US $36 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $1068-1070 / ton. The closing price of European MTBE market increased by US $22 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $1164-1164.5/ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by US $0.92/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $1222.26-1222.62/ton (344.30-344.40 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, USD 1068-1070 / T, – USD 36 / ton

Europe, FOB ARA., USD 1164-1164.5/t, $22 / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, USD 1222.26-1222.62/t, USD 0.92/ton

In terms of enterprises, the 200000 t / a isomerization unit of Shandong Chengtai new material stopped on March 23. At present, the sales inventory is mainly, and the MTBE quotation is 7800 yuan / ton. Shi dashenghua MTBE is stable, and the quotation is 7250 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is 7250 yuan / ton. The 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally, and the 200000 t / a isobutane dehydrogenation unit operates normally. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was 7250 yuan / ton.

The trend of crude oil is uncertain and the market mentality is bad; The downstream demand is weak, and the sales pressure of merchants remains. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

In March, the epoxy resin market continued to be depressed and downward, especially in the latter half of the year, with an obvious decline, with a cumulative decline of 5.57%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was 27400 yuan / ton on March 1, and fell to 25675 yuan / ton on April 1. As of press time, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China was 24700-25800 yuan / ton, and the offer of solid resin Market in Shandong was 22300-22700 yuan / ton.

Raw material bisphenol A went down significantly. In March, the domestic bisphenol a market was depressed first and then increased, and the overall decline was mainly due to the fermentation of domestic public events, the serious obstruction of logistics and consumption, and bisphenol a broke down for many times. At the end of the month, due to the centralized replenishment at the downstream PC end and the limited spot resources in the market, the market rose. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the national market was quoted at 17187 yuan / ton on March 1, fell to 15825 yuan / ton on March 25, and rose to 16550 yuan / ton on March 31. It was first restrained and then raised during the month, with an overall decline of 3.71%.

The high level of raw material dicyclohydrin is stable. In March, epichlorohydrin market rose first and then fell. In the middle and early ten days, the price of raw material propylene rose first and then fell, the cost support changed from strong to weak, the price of glycerol was high, the cost support was strong, the market operating rate was relatively low, the manufacturers had no inventory pressure, the intention of low output was not strong, the price of epichlorohydrin pushed up, the logistics and transportation in some regions were limited, and the market atmosphere was light. In the last ten days, the cost support of propylene method was weakened, the cost side of glycerol method had some support, the demand side dragged down the market mentality, the shipment of goods holders was under pressure, and the price was weak.

From the perspective of business society, the cost support is limited, the current downstream demand is weak, and the logistics is seriously blocked. It is expected to weaken in the short term, adjust the operation, and pay attention to the upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain.

Aluminum prices continued to fall this week

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on March 31 was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily drop of 0.44%, down 1.66% from the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on Friday of 23023.33 yuan / ton

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.

Analysis on the main causes of slight correction during the week

In terms of fundamentals, although the energy price in Europe is at a high level and the reduction of overseas aluminum ingot production is still expected, the aluminum price has been driven up in the early stage and is currently at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the downstream operating rate of domestic aluminum ingots is affected by traffic factors, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and foils has rebounded; In terms of inventory, social inventory has been slightly removed recently. The slight correction during the week was mainly due to the high aluminum price driven by the early external market, which hit a wall at the actual demand end.

Future forecast

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23000 mark. Under the long short game, the upward space will be narrowed, and the stable and weak shock operation will be dominated.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market recovered slightly. As of March 30, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6134 yuan / ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day and 38.67% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 6082, up 52, or 0.86%.

Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA plant was restarted on March 28, and the load was insufficient. The 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical was overhauled on March 25 and restarted around April 11. Ineos 1.25 million ton PTA plant was overhauled on March 26 and is planned to restart around May 1. The unit restart and maintenance are carried out in parallel, and the current operating rate of the industry has increased to about 76%.

The downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production, and the demand for PTA is expected to weaken, but the crude oil price rebounded, recovering most of the decline of the previous day and night, and the cost support is enhanced.

Business analysts believe that the terminal demand is weak due to the epidemic, and PTA supply and demand are both weak. However, the current PTA price fluctuation is still deeply affected by oil prices. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate slightly and adjust the operation.

Data monitoring shows that on March 29, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was about 16128.57 yuan / ton, which has continued to weaken slightly since the last ten days.

Key point analysis: at present, manufacturers in the main production areas of Henan have sufficient product inventory. So far this year, the epidemic has a great impact on the economy and demand. The downstream demand is weak and the transaction is general. Under the control measures, the transportation capacity is tight, the cost has increased to a certain extent, and it is difficult to deliver goods in some areas. The price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile remained stable in the near future until it was increased by 50 yuan / ton on the 29th. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is about 11550 yuan / ton; The market price of raw acrylic acid fell sharply in the past two days, down 5.73% from the price on the 27th.

Future forecast: at present, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country is tense, the delivery and transportation are affected, and the cost increases. In terms of raw materials, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials increases little and has a downward trend, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient, and the demand under multiple control is also affected. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will be stable and weak in the future.