According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose sharply on March 2. The average market price in East China was 5995 yuan / ton, up 4.68% from the previous day and 32.15% year-on-year. PTA main contract rose by the limit, and PTA futures main 2205 closed at 5988, up 6.02%.

WTI crude oil set a new high since June 2014, PTA followed the rise of crude oil, and the cost support was strong. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory result in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and the market expectation of future energy supply interruption is further strengthened. A multinational agreement to release strategic crude oil reserves also failed to curb the rise in oil prices. On March 1, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $103.41/barrel, up US $7.69 or 8.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $104.97/barrel, up US $7.00 or 7.1%.

From the perspective of supply and demand, under the low processing cost, the maintenance of domestic factories increased. Among them, the 350000 ton PTA unit of Yizheng Chemical fiber was overhauled for about 20 days on March 1. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 78%, and the expectation of destocking helps PTA prices rise. Most of the downstream polyester market rose, and the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton.

Business analysts believe that the pattern of strong crude oil remains unchanged in the short term, PTA’s own factory devices are overhauled one after another, the supply side is expected to shrink further, and the weaving start of superimposed terminals will gradually recover. Therefore, PTA fundamentals are expected to be better, and the price will remain upward.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 449600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 468000 yuan / ton

Analysis: at the beginning of the week, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. At present, the market output of lithium carbonate is still affected by the shortage of resources, and the market gap still exists. In March, the downstream lithium iron phosphate plate experienced maintenance and production reduction in varying degrees, which slightly slowed down the procurement demand. With the rising price of lithium carbonate, the cost of downstream enterprises has increased sharply, the pressure has increased, the acceptance of high lithium price is low, and the short-term upstream and downstream game has heated up.

Forecast: at present, there are relatively few high price transactions in the lithium carbonate market, mostly just in need of purchase. At the beginning of the month, the downstream enters the state of monthly supplement. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will still rise slightly.

Cobalt prices rose sharply in February

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply in February, and the cobalt market rose. As of February 28, the average price of cobalt was 546500 yuan / ton, up 8.78% from 502400 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. On February 28, the cobalt commodity index was 196.58, down 17.72% from the highest point 238.91 in the cycle (April 15, 2018), and up 181.47% from the lowest point 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of cobalt is approaching a historical high, and the risk of falling cobalt price is increasing.

The international cobalt price rose slightly

As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, the price of MB cobalt resumed rising in February, and the price of international standard cobalt rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt market. However, from the increase of cobalt price, it can be seen that the increase of international cobalt price in February was limited, and the support of international cobalt Market for the domestic cobalt market was weak.

Sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations

According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in January, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively. From past experience, January is usually the off-season for the sales of new energy vehicles, and the consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to decline significantly due to the decline of subsidies in January 2022. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, the demand of cobalt market increased, and the rise of cobalt price supported greatly.

According to the latest data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in terms of output, in January 2022, China’s power battery output totaled 29.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 146.2% and a month on month decrease of 6.2%, of which the output of ternary battery was 10.8gwh, accounting for 36.5% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 57.9% and a month on month decrease of 5.4%; In January 2022, China’s power battery loading volume totaled 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9% and a month on month decrease of 38.3%, realizing a significant year-on-year increase. The ternary battery loading volume was 7.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a month on month decrease of 34.0%. The output of ternary batteries increased sharply year-on-year, the installed capacity increased year-on-year, the demand of cobalt market increased, the output and installed capacity of power batteries decreased month on month, and the decline proportion of ternary batteries was less than that of power batteries. The demand of ternary batteries in the future is optimistic, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the off-season of new energy vehicles in February was not light, and the demand of cobalt market exceeded expectations. The rising demand of cobalt Market stimulated the sharp rise of domestic cobalt price. In February, the increase of international cobalt price was less than that of domestic cobalt price, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices decreased, and the cobalt price in February approached a historical high. The domestic cobalt price rose too fast, and the risk of decline in the domestic cobalt market still exists. In the future, the demand growth and the rising power of cobalt market are large. The domestic cobalt price rises too fast, and the risk of cobalt market decline still exists. The rising trend of cobalt Market in the future still exists, but the increase decreases. It is expected that the cobalt price in the future will rise slightly.

Spot price: the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber stabilized and rebounded this week (2.21-2.25). According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7810 yuan / ton on February 25, up 0.97% from the beginning of the week and 1.34% from the same period last year.

Futures market: this week, the main force of staple fiber pf futures showed a shock upward trend. On February 25, the main contract of staple fiber pf futures closed at 7612, up 256 or 3.48% from the closing price of last week. The settlement price is 7682 yuan; The position was 112749, the position decreased by 649 and the basis was 198. Domestic staple fiber upstream raw material futures prices rose and fell this week, with PTA rising 5.94% and ethylene glycol falling 0.91%.

Influencing factors: 1 International crude oil prices rose sharply this week. The tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and the international oil price soared sharply. On the 24th, the CFD of WTI New York crude oil exceeded US $100 / barrel. At the weekend, affected by the weaker than expected us and European sanctions against Russia, the oil price fell sharply, and the US oil rose by about 4% this week; 2. This week, the cost side of PTA benefited from the strong performance of international oil prices. The maintenance of PTA unit is expected to rise under low processing cost, and the downstream is gradually started, but the demand recovers slowly; 3. This week, the social inventory of ethylene glycol continued to accumulate slightly, the overall supply and demand pressure was large, and the futures and spot prices fell slightly; 4. This week, the market of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn was sorted horizontally. The market performance was insufficient and the mentality was generally weak. The yarn factory mainly delivered goods cautiously, and the factory transaction was general, mainly delivered orders; 5. Affected by the rise in the price of main raw materials, the price of polyester staple fiber rebounded slightly this week. The downstream yarn mills and weaving mills resumed work one after another, and the production and sales rebounded. However, the recovery in demand is still less than expected, and the spot price trend of staple fiber is relatively stable.

Future forecast: in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate, the oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is strong. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a strong shock trend in the short term in the future. Pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, changes in raw material prices and the resumption of upstream and downstream work.

On the 24th, aluminum prices operated smoothly

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 24 was 22706.67 yuan / ton, up 5.16% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.47%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.33% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.47% recently.

The long short game of aluminum price increased slightly

According to statistics, on the 24th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream market was 1118000 tons, and 15000 tons were accumulated in the week. In terms of inventory in the plant area, it has decreased on the whole, and it is in the state of de stocking on the whole within the week. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment pressure is relatively small. In the downstream market, at present, the price of aluminum ingots is relatively high, and there is little willingness to hoard goods in the downstream. In terms of outbound volume, except for a small month on month increase in Chongqing this week, Wuxi’s outbound volume decreased due to epidemic factors; The outbound volume in Foshan, Changzhou and Gongyi areas decreased; The ex warehouse volume in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin and Shenyang changed little month on month.

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of February 23, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 34716 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 31660 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 3056 yuan / ton, or 9.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that during the Spring Festival holiday in early February, the domestic silicone DMC market operated smoothly and the on-site trading was relatively quiet. After the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market as a whole showed a weak trend and fell slightly. On the 7th, a large domestic monomer factory in Shandong lowered the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 31000 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The price adjustment of the large factory brought some wait-and-see mood to the silicone DMC market after the festival. The downstream demand was mostly purchased on demand, and other factories were mainly large and multi-dimensional and stable prices.

In late February, the domestic silicone DMC market ushered in an upward trend for nearly half a month. Downstream demand has been expanding one after another, and the trading atmosphere on the floor has improved. Since the 14th, the domestic silicone DMC market has opened a continuous rising mode. Shandong large factory has raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 1300 yuan / ton. On the 15th, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory rose to 32300 yuan / ton. On the 16th and 17th, other monomer factories also followed the upward trend, The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was raised by 300-500 yuan / ton. As of the 17th, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 32300-32600 yuan / ton. The downstream demand followed up normally, and the overall market situation of organosilicon DMC was stable. Starting from the 21st, under the double support of tight supply and warmer demand in the field, Shandong large factory raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC for three consecutive days. As of the 23rd, the ex factory price of silicone DMC in the factory increased to around 35100 yuan / ton, the phenomenon of plate sealing in the field increased, and the high-end quotation in the field rose to around 36000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is good.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, on February 23, the metal silicon (441#) market was relatively strong, and the logic of 441# metal silicon price rise remained unchanged. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market was 21920 yuan / ton, and the price of metal silicon still had the power to rise with the increase of cost. The downstream demand of the demand side is good, especially the silicone and polysilicon are rising all the way. The operating rate of the main production area in the southwest of the supply side decreases seasonally, and the supply is expected to decline. The silicon plant is looking forward to the market. On the whole, the bullish psychology of silicon plants is getting higher and higher, and the price of metal silicon is expected to be stable in the short term.

Silicone DMC market outlook forecast

At present, with the continuous rise of silicone DMC market, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is still preferred, but the actual transaction is becoming more cautious. The silicone DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is more stable, focusing on the overall operation in the medium term, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of glycol fell on Tuesday. On February 14, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5016 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 4783 yuan / ton. Glycol prices fell 4.65% on Tuesday.

The price trend of glycol was down on Tuesday. At present, the mainstream inventory is about 58700 tons. Enterprises still focus on digesting inventory. International crude oil prices rose and fell this week. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamics of crude oil market in real time. The operating rate of UPR in the downstream of diethylene glycol is about 9%, up from last week. As of February 21, the domestic market quotation in East China is 4730-4780 yuan / ton.

At present, the support of diethylene glycol raw materials is acceptable, the delivery is good, and the follow-up situation at the demand side is relatively optimistic. The diethylene glycol analyst of business society believes that the current diethylene glycol market is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of diethylene glycol will advance better in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of crude oil market and downstream demand.

This week’s bisphenol a market was mainly down, mainly due to poor demand, and the decline of upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain, with many negative factors. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer in East China was 19000 yuan / ton on February 14, and the average market offer fell to 18650 yuan / ton on February 21, with an overall decline of 1.84% during the week.

From the raw material side, the phenol and acetone market showed a downward trend. Among them, the phenol market fell from an average of 11412 yuan / ton to 11012 yuan / ton, down 3.5%. The market offer in East China is 11025 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is also 11025 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 11050 yuan / ton. The acetone market fell from 6075 yuan / ton to 5912 yuan / ton, down 2.67%. The offer in East China was 5700 yuan / ton, that in South China was 5850 yuan / ton, and that around Yanshan and Shandong was 5950-6000 yuan / ton.

The downstream epoxy resin market negotiation was loose and the performance was extremely cold in the week. Among them, the liquid resin negotiation in East China is 28500-29500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business society, the auction continued to fall this week, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are declining, which is bad for the market; However, the supply side of bisphenol a market is still tight, the factory offer is strong, and the goods holders follow the market. The business society expects the bisphenol a market to maintain stable operation in the short term

The price of orthobenzene remained stable this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene was temporarily stable this week. As of February 18, the price of orthobenzene was 7800 yuan / ton, which was the same as 7800 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend. The rise of crude oil price slowed down, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and adjusted, the rise of adjacent benzene cost slowed down, and the adjacent benzene market was strong and stable for the time being.

The price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuated and rose

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week, up 1.3%. The price rise of mixed xylene slowed down, the cost rise of o-xylene slowed down, and the rising power of o-xylene weakened.

Lower phthalic anhydride prices fall

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of February 18, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8487 yuan / ton, down 0.44% from 8525 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend. The price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, the demand for phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the demand for o-xylene was temporarily stable, and the rising power of o-xylene was weakened.

Outlook

Analysts of orthoxylene data of business society believe that affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuated slightly, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, and the positive situation of downstream market weakened. Overall, the cost of o-xylene has risen, the demand is temporarily stable, the driving force of o-xylene rise is weakened, and the price of o-xylene is expected to stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market continued to rise in mid February, and the spot price increased to a certain extent. As of February 17, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4333.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.84% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

At present, the domestic potash fertilizer market is heating up and its performance is acceptable. In the early stage, the supply of potash fertilizer enterprises based on domestic resource law increased, and the prices of Salt Lake and Zanger potassium chloride were stable, with large quantities in succession, but the market supply was still limited and the supply was tight. Potassium chloride has certain support for Mannheim enterprises. At present, the load position of domestic industry is low, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. The spot supply of potassium sulfate also remains slightly tight. At present, there is a positive impact on the cost side. After the early winter storage, the supply of traders is consumed. In addition, with the recent implementation of domestic contracts, the current on-site trading has warmed up, and the merchant’s mentality is positive.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business agency believes that the domestic potassium sulfate market rose in mid February, and the market of potassium chloride fluctuated at a high level. At present, the cost of domestic potassium sulfate is fairly supported, and the demand side is warmed up due to the impact of winter storage. It is expected that the price of domestic potassium sulfate may continue to rise in the short term.