According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market recovered slightly. As of March 30, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6134 yuan / ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day and 38.67% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 6082, up 52, or 0.86%.

Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA plant was restarted on March 28, and the load was insufficient. The 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical was overhauled on March 25 and restarted around April 11. Ineos 1.25 million ton PTA plant was overhauled on March 26 and is planned to restart around May 1. The unit restart and maintenance are carried out in parallel, and the current operating rate of the industry has increased to about 76%.

The downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production, and the demand for PTA is expected to weaken, but the crude oil price rebounded, recovering most of the decline of the previous day and night, and the cost support is enhanced.

Business analysts believe that the terminal demand is weak due to the epidemic, and PTA supply and demand are both weak. However, the current PTA price fluctuation is still deeply affected by oil prices. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate slightly and adjust the operation.

Data monitoring shows that on March 29, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was about 16128.57 yuan / ton, which has continued to weaken slightly since the last ten days.

Key point analysis: at present, manufacturers in the main production areas of Henan have sufficient product inventory. So far this year, the epidemic has a great impact on the economy and demand. The downstream demand is weak and the transaction is general. Under the control measures, the transportation capacity is tight, the cost has increased to a certain extent, and it is difficult to deliver goods in some areas. The price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile remained stable in the near future until it was increased by 50 yuan / ton on the 29th. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is about 11550 yuan / ton; The market price of raw acrylic acid fell sharply in the past two days, down 5.73% from the price on the 27th.

Future forecast: at present, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country is tense, the delivery and transportation are affected, and the cost increases. In terms of raw materials, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials increases little and has a downward trend, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient, and the demand under multiple control is also affected. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will be stable and weak in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on March 28 was 5200 yuan / ton, up 1.13% from the previous trading day and down 2.80% year-on-year.

In terms of units, a new 400000 ton syngas MEG unit in Guanghui, Xinjiang was put into operation as planned last week, and products are expected to be produced near the end of the month; A 300000 ton ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi Meijin has been put into operation and produced qualified products. At present, it is in low load operation. Two sets of MEG units with a total of 1.55 million tons / year in Zhejiang have successively reduced the load recently. A set of MEG unit with a total of 500000 tons / year in Fujian is planned to reduce the production by 20% in April due to the impact of cracking and reducing the load.

Today, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly, Meg’s external market was strong, and the recent cargo negotiation was estimated to be around 690 US dollars / ton. Although the crude oil price fell today, the overall trend range is still at a high level, and ethylene glycol enterprises suffer serious losses. The load reduction plan of two sets of MEG units in Zhejiang and one set in Fujian is beneficial to the ethylene glycol market, and the market enthusiasm has been improved. The polyester plant is expected to reduce the burden, but the downstream textile demand has not been greatly improved. High raw material prices are hard to shake the weak demand, so we need to pay close attention to the changes in supply and demand.

Forecast: wide range shock.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 73810 yuan / ton, up 0.39% from 73521.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 12.03% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

Copper’s recent high shock trend is dominated. On Friday night, LME suggested banning Russian copper from entering the warehouse, and the short-term copper price fluctuation may intensify. The retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March is expected to be 1.58 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. As there are many areas affected by the epidemic and the epidemic is still in dynamic change, the specific impact of the auto market in March still needs to be further observed.

To sum up: disturbed by the concentrated outbreak of the epidemic in some parts of China, the delivery efficiency of smelters has declined, and it is rumored that some smelters will stop production under financial pressure. Overall, the impact of supply is significantly greater than that of demand. It is expected that domestic inventory will continue to be destocked under the dual weak pattern of supply and demand. Copper prices will be dominated by high volatility.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda this week was stable and dynamic. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2523.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2520 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 0.13% and a year-on-year increase of 55.88%. On March 17, the commodity index of baking soda was 167.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.99% from the highest point of 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 89.74% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2450-2600 yuan / ton. Raw materials: the price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton in the mainstream market. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2800 yuan / ton. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash this week was 89.75%, the output of soda ash was 589200 tons, and the output of soda ash increased slightly.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general. Raw materials, soda ash operates in a large, stable and small way, the downstream still maintains a wait-and-see attitude, the trading atmosphere is light and stable, and the soda ash price is adjusted and operated. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may maintain the consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

Price: 480000 yuan / ton for industrial grade lithium carbonate and 501000 yuan / ton for battery grade lithium carbonate

Analysis: Although the price of lithium carbonate has increased slightly recently, there has been a callback in the quotation of sporadic enterprises in the market. At present, most lithium salt plants on the supply side maintain a high opening rate, and imported lithium carbonate may also arrive in Hong Kong after March to April. At that time, the domestic lithium carbonate supply situation will be effectively alleviated. After late March, the downstream procurement of the market declined, and the subsequent preparation for production was also in many wait-and-see stages.

Forecast: as the end of the month approaches, the market purchasing atmosphere is light, and some traders adjust prices to increase shipments. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may maintain stability.

Bisphenol a continued to decline at 15800-15900 yuan / ton in East China market

Today, the bisphenol a market continued its downward trend. At present, the terminal demand is sluggish and difficult to change. Yesterday, the bidding price of a petrochemical in East China fell by 500 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday, and the market atmosphere is cold. Today, Lihua yiweiyuan bisphenol A was reduced by 700 yuan to 15800 yuan / ton. Under the pressure of cargo holders, the offer was further lower, the intention of sporadic inquiry was low, and the differences between the two sides were obvious. The downstream large enterprises are mostly contract based, and other spot goods are difficult to supplement, and the on-site transaction volume is obviously insufficient.

The impact of the short-term epidemic on logistics and factory inventory digestion on the industry should not be underestimated. The demand of downstream factories affects the demand for raw materials to a certain extent. The transaction of bisphenol a market is insufficient, mainly short-term decline, and it is difficult to be positive in the short term. The business society expects that the short-term bisphenol a market will continue to run at the bottom.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to rise this week. On March 18, the average market price in Henan was 7475 yuan / ton, up 2.40% from 7300 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 3.10% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market wait-and-see consolidation, during the week, the quotation of main enterprises in Henan Province was basically stable, and the quotation of individual manufacturers was increased, mainly due to cost pressure and tight supply of raw materials. In addition, due to environmental protection factors, enterprises mainly use natural gas. Under the influence of the current international situation, the price of natural gas is high, the cost of cryolite enterprises increases, and the downstream demand is weak and stable. Most enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market quotation remains high. As of March 18, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6700-8500 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream soda ash was stable and small this week. As of March 18, the average market price was about 2612.50 yuan / ton, and the price decreased slightly during the week. This week, the soda ash was consolidated and operated, the downstream purchase was cautious, and held a mentality of resistance to high prices. The market transaction was weak, the manufacturer delivered flexibly, and the soda ash inventory increased.

Downstream, the aluminum market fell first and then rose. On March 18, the aluminum price was 22515 yuan / ton, down 2.85% during the week. The rise of overseas energy prices raised the cost of electrolytic aluminum, adding that the aluminum destocking was obvious this week, the aluminum price rose during the week, and the aluminum market was sorted upward.

Future forecast

The operating rate of the domestic cryolite market is low, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the downstream demand is stable, and the upstream raw material support is superimposed. The cryolite market continues to operate at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream demand.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 73266.67 yuan / ton, up 1.45% from 72220 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9.16% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

Supply and demand: the Bank of England announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, and said it may still need to raise interest rates further in the coming months. The European Central Bank said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may trigger a new inflation trend and will change the policy direction if necessary. The utilization rate of copper concentrate capacity increased, and the supply of copper mine remained stable. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, the growth rate of national real estate development investment maintained a positive growth, but the growth rate was 3.7%. With the growth of new energy vehicles and real estate investment, the recovery rate of copper demand may accelerate.

To sum up: the recent high copper price fell, crude oil continued to rise, the market still focused on the Russian Ukrainian war, and the low foreign inventory maintained stability. At present, the margin of domestic currency has improved, the M2 data fell in February, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike has become stronger, the macro multi space crisscross, the low domestic inventory, the low foreign output, and the short-term copper price may be strong.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market trend is weak and stable this week, and the spot prices of various brands are basically sideways. As of March 17, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 32250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, adipic acid, the raw material in the upstream, rose at a high level and then fell this week. The overall operation is volatile, the downstream procurement is rational, and the demand is not large for the time being. The change of adiponitrile market is limited, but the start-up of adiponitrile domestic production line is approaching, there is bad news on the spot price in the short term, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fluctuated, the change of adiponitrile market was limited, and the cost side support of PA66 was general. At present, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry is at a high level. The inventory position of the port is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and their resistance to high price sources increases instead of decreasing. In addition, the health incident affected domestic logistics and the production of individual downstream factories, the shipment fluency of merchants was poor, the transaction resistance in the venue increased, and the mentality of sellers was affected. The range of offer negotiation this week is still large.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 is weak and sideways this week. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side is limited, the adipic acid market fluctuates, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. On the supply side, the load of PA66 enterprises is high, and the on-site spot and enterprise inventory are increasing. The terminal has a deep resistance to high price goods. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.