At present, the latest quotation of ethylene oxide industrial chain: the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, that of ethylene oxide in Central China is 7800 yuan / ton, that of ethylene oxide in South China is 7700 yuan / ton, that of ethylene oxide in North China is 7700 yuan / ton, and that of ethylene oxide in East China is 7700 yuan / ton.

Due to the double drag of cost and demand, the price of ethylene oxide has experienced an expected decline. At present, the latest ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 7800 yuan / ton.

Upstream ethylene has briefly returned to calm, but the weak supply-demand situation has not changed. However, the high prices of crude oil and naphtha limit the decline. Some market participants predict that ethylene may have a situation of limiting production and protecting prices. At present, the latest Northeast Asia ethylene outer disk price is $1050 / ton, Southeast Asia ethylene outer disk price is $1150 / ton, and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene’s quotation today is $8350 / ton, flat compared with the previous trading day. Based on the current outer disk price, Ethylene oxide is currently losing about 100 yuan. At present, the supply side of ethylene oxide is still abundant, the demand side continues to be under pressure and the possibility of improvement in the near future is small. Before the EO price reduction, the downstream monomer offer has begun to loosen, and some dealers have reduced the monomer price in advance. Today, the situation of a small negative decline in the monomer price still exists. The stimulation and boost effect of the ethylene oxide price reduction on the downstream is very limited.

Forecast: the fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious positive in the short term, and the decline is mainly digested.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8388.25 yuan / ton, up 3.13% from 8133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha rose.

According to the latest monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 31, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 8265.00 yuan / ton, up 3.05% from 8020.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining straight run naphtha rose as a whole.

On May 31, the naphtha commodity index was 103.53, up 0.87 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 145.10% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of local refined naphtha rose violently this month. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8200-8400 yuan / ton. In April, the international crude oil rose violently, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of May 25, the inventory of residual fuel oil including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil in Singapore increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

Upstream: in May, international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: in May, the price of toluene rose in a wide range. On May 1, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan / ton, and on May 27, the price was 7920 yuan / ton, an increase of 610 yuan / ton, or 8.34%, compared with the beginning of the month. In May, mixed xylene rose violently, and the price rose broadly. On May 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan / ton; On May 27, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 7.5% from the beginning of the month. In May, the price of p-xylene rose. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% from the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 54.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price rose sharply in May, supported by the naphtha cost, but there is no obvious positive effect on the terminal demand at present. The naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market turnover is general. At the end of the month, the terminal prepared goods before the holiday, and the refineries actively pushed up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may rise slightly.

Bisphenol A in East China market: 15100-15200 yuan / ton; light trading volume continues to decline

At the end of the month and the beginning of the week, the spot negotiation of bisphenol A was light, and the focus fell again. The offer of East China was 15100-15200 yuan / ton, while the offer of other factories was suspended, and the offer of lihuayi was 15100 yuan / ton. Today, the bidding of Zhejiang Petrochemical fell 200-300 yuan / ton again compared with last week, making the bisphenol a market worse. Today, the market became more bearish and the downward speed of the market accelerated.

region ., Quotation, Up and down

East China, 15100, – two hundred

Shandong region, 15150, – one hundred and fifty

Yesterday, the raw material phenol / acetone plants are now rising. Although the market follow-up is insufficient, the offer of the on-site shipholders is strong and the cost side is good. The mainstream offer of phenol in East China is 10700 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price of acetone in East China is 6000 yuan / ton, both of which are at the highest level in the month. However, the downstream epoxy resin and PC market declined broadly. Although the cargo holders made profit step by step, the actual single trading was still limited, and the pessimism in the market increased. The downstream liquid resin is offered in barrels of 25500-25800 yuan / ton, and the East China injection molding low-end is negotiated at 20000 yuan / ton, with few firm offers.

Since the market continued to decline in late May, the holders have been selling goods at a lower price. Although the raw material phenol ketone rose, it had little impact on the market. The downstream continued to fall and the trading volume was difficult to improve. The short-term market was still dominated by bad news. After a sharp decline, the holders’ intention to sell at a lower price weakened. Recently, they have paid attention to the downstream procurement and factory price adjustment.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the TDI price trend in East China this week was stable. As of May 27, the average market price in East China was 16775 yuan / ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of the week, with a month on month decrease of 6.28%.

During the week, the TDI market was weak. After the load of the Shanghai factory was increased, the on-site spot supply was relatively sufficient. However, the demand of downstream terminals was still weak, there were few foreign trade export orders, insufficient follow-up of on-site purchase, quiet market news, cold on-site trading atmosphere, large and stable offers from the holders, and negotiation on shipment for profit. The market performance was weak and stable. As of the 27th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 16300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is 16600-17000 yuan / ton, mainly through negotiation. The dealer’s quotation is adjusted with the market news, and the market is stable for the time being.

The upstream toluene market was up, and the price trend continued to rise during the week. As of May 27, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7910 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.27% over the beginning of the week. With the arrival of the peak demand for gasoline in the United States, the price of toluene in the U.S. gold plate has pushed up. There is a strong demand for toluene in Asia. Domestic toluene exports are positive. The atmosphere in the East China market is active, and the quotation of toluene is rising.

According to the analysis of TDI datagrapher of business society, most domestic TDI devices are overhauled, the manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, and the spot supply is OK. However, in the case of insufficient demand, the supply side is weak. The downstream demand in the market is light, the trading atmosphere is cold, and the demand is difficult to be positive in the off-season. It is expected that the short-term TDI situation will continue to be in a stalemate, and the future market trend will pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the acrylonitrile market was weak and fluctuated slightly this week (5.13-5.26). As of May 26, the price of acrylonitrile was 11520 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.17% from 11540 yuan / ton on May 13. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose, and the market offer is slightly adjusted. As of May 26, the market offer of acrylonitrile in East China was between 11200 and 12000 yuan / ton.

Since May, the price of raw material propylene has increased first and then decreased, and the cost support has changed from strong to weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 26, the domestic propylene price was 8121 yuan / ton, down 3.48% from 8414 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the downstream ABS industry has started around 90%, the acrylic fiber industry has started around 70%, and the acrylamide industry has started around 60-70%. The demand for acrylonitrile has a certain rigid need to be supported. Since May, the supply side of acrylonitrile has continued to be under pressure.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that, on the one hand, there is still pressure on the supply side and the support of downstream demand is stable; On the other hand, the cost weakened slightly, and the price of acrylonitrile is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a narrow range in the later stage.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the dichloromethane market was weak and fell this week (5.13-5.25). As of May 25, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 4165 yuan / ton, down 6.93% from 4475 yuan / ton on May 13.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride units has increased to around 80%. In particular, the Jinling unit in Shandong is operating at 90%, Dongyue is operating at full load and Luxi unit is operating at 80%. In addition, the 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase of Dongying Huatai new is planned to be put into operation in the near future. The supply pressure in Shandong is further increased, which has another impact on the domestic market in the later stage. The demand of downstream market is weak, and more purchases are made on demand.

The spot price of methanol decreased slightly in May. According to the business agency, as of May 25, the price of methanol was 2650 yuan / ton, down 3.46% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the current supply and demand side is under pressure, and dichloromethane is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan rose steadily this week. On May 22, the average market price in Henan was 7600 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from the price of 7575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 0.65% from the previous month.

quotations analysis

During the week, the cryolite market was mainly waiting and sorting, and the quotation of main enterprises in Henan increased by 100 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of raw materials, the production cost pressure of cryolite manufacturers increased, the cryolite device operated at low load, the enterprise inventory was small, and the market quotation was mainly high, while the downstream demand was stable and the enterprise shipment was smooth. Individual cryolite enterprises increased their quotation according to their own shipment. As of May 22, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7000-8600 yuan / ton, with little change in the range price.

The upstream soda ash rose at a high level. As of May 22, the average market price was about 2750 yuan / ton. This week, the soda ash market was stable and small, and the on-site trading was OK. The downstream was resistant to the high price soda ash. Most of the market purchases were based on demand, and the manufacturers delivered flexibly. The price trend rose slightly during the week.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated this week. On May 22, the aluminum price was about 20520 yuan / ton, with little change compared with the beginning of last week. During the week, the price trend first fell and then rose, the downstream demand was general, the aluminum social inventory accumulated, and the aluminum market fell. In the later part of the week, the whole external metal market closed up, driving the domestic market to rise slightly. On the whole, the market situation is still weak.

Future forecast

Domestic cryolite manufacturers have high costs, low load operation of on-site devices, tight market supply, stable operation of downstream demand, good market trading atmosphere, strong support for the high level of cryolite market, short-term cryolite trend is mainly high-level wait-and-see, and specific attention is paid to the downstream demand.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on May 20:

Qingdao refinery offers 7600 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 7450 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7650 yuan / ton and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7550 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, with the peak of gasoline demand in the United States, the oil supply tightened in the later stage, and the demand in Asia gradually recovered, and the international oil price continued to rise.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of mixed xylene by 50 yuan / ton.

The cost side support is strong, but the market performance of mixed xylene is general, mainly driven by the rise of toluene and gasoline prices.

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, oil prices fell on Friday as investors worried that weak global economic growth and the tightening of monetary policy by the central bank might curb the recovery of fuel demand. The weakening of upstream crude oil and naphtha prices has led to a sharp decline in ethylene prices in Asia, and some industry insiders believe that there is still a bearish trend in demand in the future.

The cost of ethylene oxide is loose, the market of CO produced ethylene glycol is poor, and the supply side of EO is relatively abundant. Based on the current external market and exchange rate, EO has been running near the cost line, and the commencement remains around 70%.

The downstream monomer market demand is still recovering at a slow speed, there will be no shortage on the supply side, and the market pessimism is becoming stronger.

Prediction: the continuous decline of ethylene has made room for the decline of ethylene oxide, which may end the platform period that has lasted for more than two months.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the week was 7350.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the weekend was 7383.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.45%, and the price increased by 64.07% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate Market showed a volatile upward trend, and the market continued to rise this week. This is mainly due to the shortage of goods in the market, the shortage of supply, the reluctance of traders to sell goods, and the market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of business agency: this week, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been at a high level. At present, the self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5200 yuan / ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 4400-4900 yuan / ton. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium nitrate.

Recently, the price of potash fertilizer in China has remained high, the cost has remained high, and the market supply is in short supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).