Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan rose steadily this week. On May 22, the average market price in Henan was 7600 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from the price of 7575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 0.65% from the previous month.

quotations analysis

During the week, the cryolite market was mainly waiting and sorting, and the quotation of main enterprises in Henan increased by 100 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of raw materials, the production cost pressure of cryolite manufacturers increased, the cryolite device operated at low load, the enterprise inventory was small, and the market quotation was mainly high, while the downstream demand was stable and the enterprise shipment was smooth. Individual cryolite enterprises increased their quotation according to their own shipment. As of May 22, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7000-8600 yuan / ton, with little change in the range price.

The upstream soda ash rose at a high level. As of May 22, the average market price was about 2750 yuan / ton. This week, the soda ash market was stable and small, and the on-site trading was OK. The downstream was resistant to the high price soda ash. Most of the market purchases were based on demand, and the manufacturers delivered flexibly. The price trend rose slightly during the week.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated this week. On May 22, the aluminum price was about 20520 yuan / ton, with little change compared with the beginning of last week. During the week, the price trend first fell and then rose, the downstream demand was general, the aluminum social inventory accumulated, and the aluminum market fell. In the later part of the week, the whole external metal market closed up, driving the domestic market to rise slightly. On the whole, the market situation is still weak.

Future forecast

Domestic cryolite manufacturers have high costs, low load operation of on-site devices, tight market supply, stable operation of downstream demand, good market trading atmosphere, strong support for the high level of cryolite market, short-term cryolite trend is mainly high-level wait-and-see, and specific attention is paid to the downstream demand.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on May 20:

Qingdao refinery offers 7600 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 7450 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7650 yuan / ton and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7550 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, with the peak of gasoline demand in the United States, the oil supply tightened in the later stage, and the demand in Asia gradually recovered, and the international oil price continued to rise.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of mixed xylene by 50 yuan / ton.

The cost side support is strong, but the market performance of mixed xylene is general, mainly driven by the rise of toluene and gasoline prices.

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, oil prices fell on Friday as investors worried that weak global economic growth and the tightening of monetary policy by the central bank might curb the recovery of fuel demand. The weakening of upstream crude oil and naphtha prices has led to a sharp decline in ethylene prices in Asia, and some industry insiders believe that there is still a bearish trend in demand in the future.

The cost of ethylene oxide is loose, the market of CO produced ethylene glycol is poor, and the supply side of EO is relatively abundant. Based on the current external market and exchange rate, EO has been running near the cost line, and the commencement remains around 70%.

The downstream monomer market demand is still recovering at a slow speed, there will be no shortage on the supply side, and the market pessimism is becoming stronger.

Prediction: the continuous decline of ethylene has made room for the decline of ethylene oxide, which may end the platform period that has lasted for more than two months.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the week was 7350.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the weekend was 7383.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.45%, and the price increased by 64.07% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate Market showed a volatile upward trend, and the market continued to rise this week. This is mainly due to the shortage of goods in the market, the shortage of supply, the reluctance of traders to sell goods, and the market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of business agency: this week, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been at a high level. At present, the self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5200 yuan / ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 4400-4900 yuan / ton. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium nitrate.

Recently, the price of potash fertilizer in China has remained high, the cost has remained high, and the market supply is in short supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10375 yuan / ton on May 18.

On the cost side, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market is high, and the upstream cost of the domestic carbon black market continues to be high. On the demand side, the downstream domestic demand is average. Although the tire industry gradually recovered in May, there is still a gap compared with the normal situation, and the overall operating load of the industry is low. The comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises continues to rise, and the price has generally increased recently.

Under the current high cost of domestic carbon black, the current carbon black is operating at a high level, and the future trend depends on the downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline this week. As of May 13, the average market price in East China was 17250 yuan / ton, down 1.71% during the week and 10.04% month on month compared with 17550 yuan / ton at the end of last week.

During the week, the TDI market was weak, and there was no news release in the market. Although the supplier had many sets of TDI device storage and maintenance plans, and the Shanghai factory reduced the negative operation, the downstream was affected by public health events, the terminal industry was depressed, there were few foreign trade export orders, and the demand purchase was limited. After the festival, the trading atmosphere in the market was still light, the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream was not high, the goods holders offered profits for shipment, the offer was lowered, and the trading atmosphere in the venue was still flat. As of the 13th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 16500-16600 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 17000-17500 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation will be lowered with the market news, and the market will be sorted out and down within the week.

The upstream toluene market was deadlocked, and the price rose first and then fell during the week. As of May 13, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7540 yuan / ton, down 0.26% from the price at the end of last week. The international crude oil fell in a wide range, the gasoline market weakened, the downstream demand was weak, coupled with logistics restrictions, the methanol quotation was reduced, and the domestic toluene Market waited and waited for consolidation and operation.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, most devices in the domestic TDI market supply are in the maintenance state, and the market supply is tight, but the downstream demand continues to be weak, the on-site trading atmosphere is general, and the toluene at the raw material end has an upward trend, resulting in increased TDI cost pressure. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will shake, sort out and operate, and the future market trend will pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on May 15 was 122.64, the same as yesterday, down 14.02% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 45.45% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride remained stable during the week from May 9 to 15, and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was about 2268.75 yuan / ton. So far this month, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, the impact of commodity transportation and circulation on the water treatment industry is close to normalization, the cost increases, the process is overweight, the transaction is not easy, the business of manufacturers and suppliers is difficult to do, and the recent mainstream market has not changed much.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid was temporarily stable in the week from September 15, with an average price of 300 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32.35% year-on-year. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream market rose and fell with each other. The downstream products had general enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid, which had a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid. In the future, it is expected that hydrochloric acid will rise slightly in the near future.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material cost has not changed much, the circulation process is overweight, and the downstream transaction slows down. It is expected that the polyaluminium chloride market will be stable in the near future, with little room for change.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. On May 6, the price of pure benzene was 8650-8900 yuan / ton (average price 8750 yuan / ton). On Friday (May 13), the price of pure benzene was 8500-9100 yuan / ton (average price 8940 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 190 yuan / ton, or 2.17%, and 8.63% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil market plummeted half a week ago due to the decline in the center of gravity of pure benzene. Affected by the impact of low-cost hydrogenated benzene in Shandong, enterprises generally take goods, and the price has fallen continuously. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the wide rise of Asian pure benzene, the cost support strengthened, and the center of gravity of pure benzene rebounded. Due to the decline of Sinopec’s output and the continuous decline of East China port inventory to about 97000 tons, the supply of pure benzene is expected to be tight, and the price of main refineries is rising. Shandong was supported to rise, but the increase was limited.

This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 9100 yuan / ton. The overall output of SINOPEC enterprises decreased and the price was strong.

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rebounded broadly after falling this week. On Thursday (May 12), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1222 / ton, with a year-on-year price increase of US $51 / ton, or 4.36%; The reference import price in East China was US $1242 / T, with a year-on-year increase of US $47 / T or 3.93%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week. The price was 10033.33 yuan / ton on May 6 and 9975 yuan / ton on May 13, down 0.58% from last week and 2.21% from the same period last year.

Aniline: domestic aniline is stable and small this week. On May 13, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week and 7.29% lower than that of the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Affected by the US gold market, it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in Asia will be strong in the short term. Domestically, the arrival of pure benzene in the later stage is still small, the port inventory may continue to decline, and the price of pure benzene in East China remains relatively high. The lower reaches of Shandong Province prefer to purchase low-cost hydrogenated benzene, which drags down the pure benzene market and has a price difference with East China. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trend, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on the price of pure benzene.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on May 12 was 8492 yuan / ton, up 0.35% from the previous trading day and 20.43% year-on-year. Today, the main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 8280 in the morning, up 2.30% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 8302. Staple fiber raw material futures closed higher today, with PTA rising 5.11% and ethylene glycol rising 0.36%.

Due to the interruption of the supply of natural gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, the price of international crude oil futures closed up sharply overnight. PX supply and demand continued to be tight, PTA recently reduced the burden more, and the limit rose last night. Recently, the supply side of ethylene glycol has increased, but at present, the port inventory is low and the rebound space is limited. Recently, the production reduction of staple fiber maintenance has increased, the operating load has decreased, many downstream yarn mills just need to purchase, and the weaving terminal orders are poor, which are only sporadic orders. The staple fiber futures closed up in shock today.

Business analysts believe that the recent adjustment of crude oil shock is relatively strong, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is strong. In the short term, the supply and demand in the north of Jiangsu is still tight. However, in the later stage, some staple fiber devices are expected to restart. In the future, it is expected that polyester staple fiber will be relatively strong in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of May 11, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 6266.67 yuan / ton, down 33.80% compared with the price on May 7, down 13.76% compared with the price on April 11, and up 37.23% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of formic acid fell at a high level, with a one-day price drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton and a five-day decline of 33.80%. In the recent period, the upstream prices have fluctuated with each other, and the cost has little impact on the formic acid market. The construction of mainstream enterprises has recovered, the market supply is sufficient, the formic acid price has risen to a high level in the early stage, the downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is increasing, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the domestic demand is weak, and the formic acid market price has fallen sharply.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated on May 11. The overall supply in Shandong changed little, and the downstream purchased more on demand; Upstream liquid ammonia: on May 11, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong continued to rise. On Wednesday, the prices of most large factories in Shandong still increased, mostly by 50 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market fell on May 11; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business agency, on May 10, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2727 yuan / ton, down 0.82% from the previous working day, down 9.76% month on month and up 4.60% year-on-year.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is limited, and the supply and demand side dominates the market. However, with the early price reduction, it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may fall and wait and see.