According to the monitoring data of business society, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on May 15 was 122.64, the same as yesterday, down 14.02% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 45.45% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride remained stable during the week from May 9 to 15, and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was about 2268.75 yuan / ton. So far this month, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, the impact of commodity transportation and circulation on the water treatment industry is close to normalization, the cost increases, the process is overweight, the transaction is not easy, the business of manufacturers and suppliers is difficult to do, and the recent mainstream market has not changed much.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid was temporarily stable in the week from September 15, with an average price of 300 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32.35% year-on-year. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream market rose and fell with each other. The downstream products had general enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid, which had a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid. In the future, it is expected that hydrochloric acid will rise slightly in the near future.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material cost has not changed much, the circulation process is overweight, and the downstream transaction slows down. It is expected that the polyaluminium chloride market will be stable in the near future, with little room for change.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. On May 6, the price of pure benzene was 8650-8900 yuan / ton (average price 8750 yuan / ton). On Friday (May 13), the price of pure benzene was 8500-9100 yuan / ton (average price 8940 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 190 yuan / ton, or 2.17%, and 8.63% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil market plummeted half a week ago due to the decline in the center of gravity of pure benzene. Affected by the impact of low-cost hydrogenated benzene in Shandong, enterprises generally take goods, and the price has fallen continuously. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the wide rise of Asian pure benzene, the cost support strengthened, and the center of gravity of pure benzene rebounded. Due to the decline of Sinopec’s output and the continuous decline of East China port inventory to about 97000 tons, the supply of pure benzene is expected to be tight, and the price of main refineries is rising. Shandong was supported to rise, but the increase was limited.

This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 9100 yuan / ton. The overall output of SINOPEC enterprises decreased and the price was strong.

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rebounded broadly after falling this week. On Thursday (May 12), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1222 / ton, with a year-on-year price increase of US $51 / ton, or 4.36%; The reference import price in East China was US $1242 / T, with a year-on-year increase of US $47 / T or 3.93%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week. The price was 10033.33 yuan / ton on May 6 and 9975 yuan / ton on May 13, down 0.58% from last week and 2.21% from the same period last year.

Aniline: domestic aniline is stable and small this week. On May 13, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week and 7.29% lower than that of the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Affected by the US gold market, it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in Asia will be strong in the short term. Domestically, the arrival of pure benzene in the later stage is still small, the port inventory may continue to decline, and the price of pure benzene in East China remains relatively high. The lower reaches of Shandong Province prefer to purchase low-cost hydrogenated benzene, which drags down the pure benzene market and has a price difference with East China. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trend, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on the price of pure benzene.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on May 12 was 8492 yuan / ton, up 0.35% from the previous trading day and 20.43% year-on-year. Today, the main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 8280 in the morning, up 2.30% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 8302. Staple fiber raw material futures closed higher today, with PTA rising 5.11% and ethylene glycol rising 0.36%.

Due to the interruption of the supply of natural gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, the price of international crude oil futures closed up sharply overnight. PX supply and demand continued to be tight, PTA recently reduced the burden more, and the limit rose last night. Recently, the supply side of ethylene glycol has increased, but at present, the port inventory is low and the rebound space is limited. Recently, the production reduction of staple fiber maintenance has increased, the operating load has decreased, many downstream yarn mills just need to purchase, and the weaving terminal orders are poor, which are only sporadic orders. The staple fiber futures closed up in shock today.

Business analysts believe that the recent adjustment of crude oil shock is relatively strong, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is strong. In the short term, the supply and demand in the north of Jiangsu is still tight. However, in the later stage, some staple fiber devices are expected to restart. In the future, it is expected that polyester staple fiber will be relatively strong in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of May 11, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 6266.67 yuan / ton, down 33.80% compared with the price on May 7, down 13.76% compared with the price on April 11, and up 37.23% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of formic acid fell at a high level, with a one-day price drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton and a five-day decline of 33.80%. In the recent period, the upstream prices have fluctuated with each other, and the cost has little impact on the formic acid market. The construction of mainstream enterprises has recovered, the market supply is sufficient, the formic acid price has risen to a high level in the early stage, the downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is increasing, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the domestic demand is weak, and the formic acid market price has fallen sharply.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated on May 11. The overall supply in Shandong changed little, and the downstream purchased more on demand; Upstream liquid ammonia: on May 11, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong continued to rise. On Wednesday, the prices of most large factories in Shandong still increased, mostly by 50 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market fell on May 11; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business agency, on May 10, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2727 yuan / ton, down 0.82% from the previous working day, down 9.76% month on month and up 4.60% year-on-year.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is limited, and the supply and demand side dominates the market. However, with the early price reduction, it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may fall and wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1813 yuan / ton on May 1 and 1820 yuan / ton on May 10. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 0.37% this week.

2、 Market analysis

After the festival, the price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly and fluctuated at a high level. Due to the continuous rise of ammonium sulfate before the festival, the inquiry of ammonium sulfate after the festival increased. Downstream enterprises and dealers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and it is expected that there will still be an upward trend in the short term. This week, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the high price of self grade ammonium sulfate was mainly strong. Urea continued to rise, which was good for the market of ammonium sulfate. As of May 10, the factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate and mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1750 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1820-1940 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market was strong this week. The bullish atmosphere increased. Due to the sharp rise of urea, monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer as raw materials of compound fertilizer and the increase of cost pressure, some compound fertilizer enterprises suspended their quotation and mainly issued early orders.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that the current ammonium sulfate market may rise again and the downstream inquiry will increase. There was a strong buying atmosphere in the venue, but the transaction was limited. Urea continues to rise, which is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate and rise in the short term.

Domestic cobalt prices fell on May 9

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the cobalt price fell on May 9, and the cobalt market fell. On May 9, the price of cobalt was 534300 yuan / ton, down 0.78% from 538500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with the cobalt price of 540000 yuan / ton on May 1, it fell by 1.06%. After the festival, the cobalt price fell and the cobalt market fell.

Key points of analysis

The international cobalt price fluctuated and rose, with a large price difference at home and abroad; Tesla in Shanghai has resumed work and production, the installed capacity of ternary batteries is expected to rise, the demand of cobalt market is expected to pick up, the inflection point of the epidemic is not clear, the large-scale resumption of work and logistics transportation of enterprises have not been fully recovered, and the industrial chain of cobalt City is limited, and the supply and demand are both weak; The price rise of new energy vehicles was transmitted to the terminal, and the sales of new energy vehicles were lower than expected. The price of cobalt salt fell sharply, the metal cobalt fell affected, and the pressure of cobalt price decline increased.

Future forecast

The recovery of demand was lower than expected, the price of cobalt salt fell sharply, and the domestic cobalt price is expected to stabilize in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 7, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12700.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price was weak this week, down 0.78% compared with the same period last week. In the short term, the DMF market was mainly stable.

As of May 7, the domestic DMF price was weak, down 0.78% compared with the same period last week. At present, the mainstream price range is 13000-13200 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is fair, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs procurement, and the logistics is smooth. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: 13000 yuan / ton for Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd., 13000 yuan / ton for Jinan Jutai Chemical Co., Ltd., 13000 yuan / ton for Shandong Zhiying New Material Co., Ltd., 13000 yuan / ton for Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. and 13000 yuan / ton for Jinan Hengtong Chemical Co., Ltd.

For upstream methanol, as of May 5, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2712 yuan / ton, down 1.18% from the previous working day and up 5.96% year-on-year. On May 5, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated strongly. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2784 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, up 75 yuan / ton or 3.46% compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

Chemical commodity index: on May 7, the chemical index was 1177 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 15.93% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 96.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF is mainly strong. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price stalemate market is running this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 55400 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 55500 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 41.4%. On April 21, the bromine commodity index was 194.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.72% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 229.92% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of bromine enterprises in Shandong is about 55000-56000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is deadlocked. Now there is no inventory pressure on bromine enterprises as a whole, and the intention to support the price is obvious. Downstream flame retardants, pharmaceutical intermediates industry procurement enthusiasm is OK, but more on-demand procurement.

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic sulfur increased. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 3586.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3683.33 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.69% and a year-on-year increase of 147.76%. The inventory of domestic refineries is low and there is no pressure on the inventory of manufacturers. During the May Day holiday, the sulfur demand is stable and positive. The quotation in Shandong Province is slightly increased. Individual enterprises adjust the quotation according to their own shipment situation, and the sulfur price of refineries in Shandong Province is increased by 20-50 yuan / ton. The downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, the support for sulfur is weakened, the market of ammonium phosphate is temporarily stable, the fertilizer for spring ploughing is coming to an end, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices have been adjusted and operated recently, enterprises have no inventory pressure, bromine enterprises mostly support prices, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediate industries start to purchase on demand, enterprises actively ship goods, and buyers and sellers still play a game. It is comprehensively expected that the main players in the short-term bromine price adjustment will depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on May 4:

Qingdao refinery offers 7300 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 7150 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7350 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7450 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 7600 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 7400 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the EU has formulated a plan to gradually stop importing Russian oil, which has aroused widespread concern in the market and led to a sharp rise in oil prices.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of mixed xylene by 100 yuan / ton.

Crude oil soared and cost support strengthened; Gasoline prices rise, and downstream mining and compensation are expected to improve; Superimposed on the price rise of Sinopec, the spot market actively followed the rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on April 29, the average price of P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4891.67 yuan / ton, down 83.33 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Unit: the 600000 ton ethylene glycol unit in sanning, Hubei Province has a load reduction operation plan since May and will be overhauled in June; The 300000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Qianxi coal chemical industry and the 120000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Inner Mongolia Yigao have maintenance plans in May; Shenhua Yulin 400000 ton ethylene glycol plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance for about 20 days in early June.

The price focus of ethylene glycol fell this month and the trading was deadlocked. As of April 28, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1151500 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons or 0.13% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 13500 tons or 1.19% compared with Monday. The operating rate of ethylene glycol fell sharply this month, and the load reduction and shutdown of EG unit increased. Due to the low operating rate and limited logistics, the enthusiasm of polyester manufacturers to pick up goods was affected, the remaining MEG tank space in the port continued to be tightened, and the overall supply surface was still slightly abundant. International crude oil is still at a high level. Some analysts pointed out that if there is a broader and longer blockade in May and beyond, there will be a continuous downward risk in domestic oil demand and prices, and the oil market will continue to fluctuate widely under pressure. At present, the demand support of downstream polyester for MEG is still weak. The average polymerization rate of polyester in April is expected to be around 87%, but there is a strong expectation.

3、 Forecast: Although the thrust brought by the current crude oil market is large, the demand side is constrained and the surge is still subject to resistance. It may be improved after the demand side is improved.