The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3603.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3603.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 5.03%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the shortage of supply combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature, the supply of fluorite has decreased. This week, the fluorite.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market still acceptable

This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In January, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry has experienced a decline in production, coupled with low prices of hydrofluoric acid, overall demand is not expected to improve. Overall, the domestic fluorite market may be mainly volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to operate under pressure at the beginning of the 25th year, with weak fluctuations. As of January 7th, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 76000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% from the same period last month at 78400 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 78600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the same period last month at 81200 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

From the perspective of new energy vehicles, January is the traditional off-season in China, and there is a reduction in power batteries. However, due to the expectation of overseas policies, the demand for exports is expected to be strong, and the overall reduction on the demand side will be better than the same period in previous years.

In December, the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate were strong, and the demand for ternary materials remained stable. There is an expectation of a decrease in downstream demand after January 2025. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is about 65%, and the operating rate of ternary materials is about 44%.

Supply side:

Due to the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, domestic mines are expected to reduce production on the supply side. Based on intelligence and shipping data from Argentina, the import volume is expected to remain balanced.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, there are maintenance plans in the upstream of lithium carbonate, coupled with a strong pre holiday stocking mentality and better than expected production scheduling in the downstream. In the short term, it may experience strong fluctuations, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 30 to January 6, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6110 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 6210 yuan/ton on January 6th. This week, there were slight regional differences in the performance of the xylene market, with insufficient downstream demand in Shandong region and most of the listed prices of local refineries being lowered. Huaben and South China regions have tight inventories, and the rise in crude oil prices has driven up the spot market.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 6th, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6350 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 6th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7100 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on December 30th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 3rd, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 819-821 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to December 30th.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to perform well in the near future, and it is anticipated that cost support will remain strong in the future. On the supply side, the inventory in Shandong region has been running at a low level recently, with good support from the supply side. Demand is facing the upcoming holiday, and downstream demand expectations are gradually weakening, providing weak support for the market. Overall, the market demand is relatively weak, and it is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash decreased narrowly in late December. As of December 31, the average market price of soda ash was 1528 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the price of 1538 yuan/ton on December 21, a decrease of 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

The soda ash market was weakly consolidating in late December. The early stage equipment runs smoothly, the soda ash manufacturer actively ships, the downstream follows up as needed, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable, the supply and demand on site are relatively balanced, and the soda ash price runs steadily; In the later stage, the load of soda ash plants in some regions of China increased, and the supply of soda ash in the region increased. The mentality of operators weakened, and at the same time, the downstream market situation decreased, which had a negative impact on the upstream market. As a result, the market price of soda ash slightly fell.

As of December 31st, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 30 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market first rose and then fell. From December 21st to 31st, the price of glass increased from 16.40 yuan/square meter to 16.45 yuan/square meter, and then fell back to 16.40 yuan/square meter. The operating rate of the glass market did not change much in the latter half of the year, and downstream entry enthusiasm was not high. Follow up was mainly based on demand, and overall shipments from manufacturers were limited. Market destocking was poor, and glass prices fluctuated slightly.

Future forecast: Currently, the inventory level in the domestic soda ash market is high, and spot soda ash factories are actively shipping. The sales pressure on enterprises still exists, and the downstream glass market demand is average, with more emphasis on on-demand replenishment. This has limited support for the soda ash market, and there is a game of supply and demand in the market. In the short term, soda ash will operate weakly and steadily. Specific attention should be paid to following up on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly increased recently (12.24-12.31). As of December 31, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16890 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72% from 16604 yuan/ton on December 24. Recently, raw material prices have fluctuated slightly at high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly increased; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, while the Shanghai rubber market has risen this week, driving the natural rubber spot market slightly higher.

December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. However, the recent rainstorm has once again hit the important rubber planting areas in southern Thailand, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is high, driving the domestic price of natural rubber raw materials to remain firm; As of December 31st, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas is around 17200 yuan/ton, running at a high level.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 29, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477600 tons, an increase of 7600 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of December 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

Future forecast: The supply of raw materials at home and abroad is gradually rising in the current season, but the short-term rainstorm impacts the main production areas of Thailand, supporting the price of raw materials; The tire market provides strong support for natural rubber demand; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate within a certain range in the short term.

Analysis: This week (12.23-27), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.25%. The main reason is that the contradiction of oversupply is difficult to alleviate, and the supply pressure has increased. The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the poor performance of the urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2500-2600 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The market enters the traditional off-season, fertilizer procurement cools down, downstream fertilizer factory operating rates significantly decrease, industrial demand follows suit, supply is sufficient, and supply pressure may continue to increase in the later stage. But in the later stage, the market will show regional differentiation. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week. The main production areas will continue to decline, but some areas may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic toluene market at the beginning of 2024 is 6570 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year is 6050 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 7.91%. The overall trend of the toluene market in 2024 is weak and can be divided into two stages. In the first half of the year, it fluctuated upwards and then experienced a slight correction, followed by a continuous decline in the second half of the year.

From the monthly K-bar chart of Shengyi Society’s toluene market, it can be seen that in 2024, the toluene market experienced more declines than gains. There were four months of upward movement and seven months of downward movement, with the highest increase in January being 5.63% and the highest decrease in September being 13.89%.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.

1、 Review of the toluene market in 2024

First half of the year: Supported by favorable supply and demand, it rose 14.76%

In the first half of 2024, the overall prices of crude oil and naphtha will rise, especially in the first quarter where the increase is significant, and the cost will face strong market support. The supply side showed a tight performance throughout the first half of the year, firstly due to high and then low port inventory in the East China region, with overall good destocking situation. Secondly, there was a wave of centralized maintenance of domestic facilities after March and April, which affected the market supply in April and May. Under the influence of market expectations of tight supply, refinery prices continued to rise, especially with the increase of export enterprises in Shandong region, which led to high market activity and continued upward trend in the spot market. Overall, the supply side support was good in the first half of the year. The downstream disproportionation industry on the demand side performed well in the first half of the year, with overall high profits and stable and positive demand for toluene. The export volume of toluene steadily increased from January to May, with good demand support. Although before the May Day holiday, due to the fact that the price of toluene was already at its highest point of the year, downstream high-level receiving capacity declined, and demand expectations were insufficient, the toluene market experienced a wave of decline in mid to late April. After entering June, prices rebounded again under the boost of the diversified industry. Overall, in the first half of 2024, supported by both supply and demand, the toluene market maintained a high level of operation.

In the second half of the year, both supply and demand fell to a two-year low

In the second half of 2024, the toluene market first stabilized and then fell, with a cumulative decline of 19.76%. After entering the third quarter, geopolitical and storm premium factors eased, and the crude oil market fell under pressure. Brent and WTI successively fell below the $70 mark, and the trend of naphtha prices was also weak, resulting in a bearish overall cost performance. Since late July, the supply side has resumed production of equipment that entered maintenance in the first half of the year. The total domestic operating rate has increased from nearly 60% to around 75%, indicating a significant easing of market supply. At the same time, there was a significant increase in import volume in the second half of the year. In August alone, the import volume reached 19489.31 tons, an increase of 280.69% month on month and 281.74% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the total import volume of 5722.88 tons from January to June. The overall supply performance in the second half of the year was bearish. In the second half of the year, the downstream disproportionation industry performed well on the demand side, and overall demand remained stable, providing essential support for the toluene market. But in the oil blending industry, which performed well in the first half of the year, as the price difference between xylene and toluene continued to decrease or even invert, the intention of the oil blending industry to purchase toluene continued to shrink, and the demand side performance weakened. Overall, under the dual negative impact of supply and demand, the toluene market has been declining, falling to a low level in nearly two years.

2、 Industrial chain structure

Toluene is an important organic chemical raw material, and its production is mainly achieved through two pathways: petroleum refining and coal chemical industry. Petroleum refining mainly involves the hydrogenation extraction of crude benzene from fractionated coal tar to obtain hydrogenated toluene; Coal chemical industry is the extraction of petroleum toluene from catalytic cracking of naphtha.

The downstream products of toluene mainly include TDI, benzoic acid, phenol, caprolactam, and PTA. It has a wide range of applications, including blending gasoline to increase its octane rating, as well as preparing various toluene derivatives such as xylene, o-xylene, benzyl alcohol, etc. Its application terminals involve industries such as petrochemicals, fuels, pesticides, and synthetic materials.

3、 Outlook for the toluene market in 2025:

Cost side: The 2025 oil price range is fluctuating, and the cost side support is relatively stable

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2025, under the premise of maintaining the current level of production policy in OPEC+, global oil supply will show a surplus of over 1 million barrels. Business Society believes that the supply-demand balance in 2025 will transition from a tight equilibrium state to a balanced state, mainly based on the current production capacity and the premise of moderate growth in US crude oil supply in the future; In addition, it is also based on the current geopolitical foundation, without further intensifying geopolitical conflicts and taking into account the risk premium. Therefore, the upward range of oil prices is suppressed. In addition, major institutions are relatively pessimistic and conservative about oil prices in 2025, with Brent’s average oil price generally predicted to be in the range of $73-76. The prediction of oil prices by Business Society for 2025 basically conforms to this viewpoint

Raw material surface: The production of naphtha is steadily increasing, and the supply of raw materials is sufficient

Naphtha is the main raw material for producing toluene, and its production and operation will directly affect the development of the toluene industry. With the continuous improvement of China’s refining capacity and the sustained release of downstream market demand for naphtha, China’s naphtha production continues to steadily increase. Data shows that the cumulative production of naphtha in China from January to November 2024 is about 73.3 million tons. Currently, the main production areas of naphtha in China are Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning and other provinces, with Shandong Province having the most prominent production. The steady growth of naphtha production provides important raw material guarantees for the development of the toluene industry.

Supply side: Expected increase in toluene supply by 2025

Toluene is an important chemical raw material, and the demand in the international and domestic markets is constantly increasing. In recent years, driven by increased downstream demand and good export performance, China’s toluene enterprises have actively expanded their capacity and production. Domestic toluene production capacity continues to rise, and new facilities will continue to be put into operation in the future. Affected by the production development direction of reducing oil and increasing chemical production, the willingness of main refineries and local refining enterprises to export toluene has increased. Especially in the Shandong region, the performance has been outstanding, with the addition of toluene production capacity increasing by over 50% in the past three years. In the future, production enterprises will place greater emphasis on the toluene commodity market, with increased enthusiasm for exports. It is expected that the domestic market supply of toluene will continue to rise by 2025.

Demand side: Stable with upward trend

Toluene has a wide range of applications, including blending gasoline and preparing various toluene derivatives such as xylene, o-xylene, benzyl alcohol, etc. At present, the downstream consumption structure of toluene in China is stable, with oil blending accounting for about 52%, disproportionation accounting for about 26%, solvents accounting for about 12%, and TDI and other components accounting for about 10%. It can be seen that the main downstream consumption of toluene is still gasoline blends. As an octane enhancer, toluene can improve the combustion performance of gasoline, reduce exhaust emissions, and better meet national environmental requirements. With the increase of domestic car ownership, the consumption of gasoline has also increased, driving the demand for toluene to increase. However, due to the continuous improvement of domestic gasoline quality requirements, the proportion of toluene added has decreased in recent years. In addition, with the increasing proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, the demand growth rate of toluene in gasoline blends is relatively slow. However, with the increase in production capacity of the disproportionation device, the demand for disproportionation is expected to increase in the future. Overall, the demand for toluene industry is stable with an upward trend.

Export surface: The export volume of toluene is steadily increasing

Between 2017 and 2021, the import volume of toluene in China was significantly higher than the export volume, but this situation has changed significantly in 2022. Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in the export volume of toluene in China, which has completely transformed the country from a net importer of toluene to a net exporter of toluene in the same year. Specifically, the import volume of toluene (29023000) in China in 2022 was 67700 tons, a decrease of 67% compared to 206200 tons in 2021; The export volume was 649000 tons, an increase of 571% year-on-year from 96700 tons in 2021.

According to customs data, China exported a total of 471000 tons of toluene from January to November 2024, an increase of 13500 tons compared to the same period in 2023 and a year-on-year increase of 2.94%. It is expected that the export volume of toluene in 2024 will exceed the 508000 tons in 2023, and the export volume will reach a new high, which will provide certain positive support for the domestic market.

Market forecast:

In the short term, the toluene market at the end of the fourth quarter has seen a certain rebound in prices, driven by the strengthening of the oil blending industry in Shandong and the release of traditional downstream stocking demand in December. The increasing demand in the disproportionation industry led to a small upward trend in the toluene market at the end of the fourth quarter, and maintained a high volatility trend until the end of December. In the upcoming year of 2025, there do not seem to be many bright spots in terms of cost and supply, and the overall trend is stable. However, there are still positive developments on the demand side, and there is still room for growth in the oil blending market in Shandong before and after the Spring Festival. The disproportionation industry is also boosted by high prices of pure benzene, and there are certain positive factors. In recent years, the export performance has been impressive, and with the support of favorable demand, it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the toluene market at the beginning of the 25th.

In the long run, the international crude oil price range will fluctuate in 2025, and the cost of toluene will still support the expected increase in supply. Downstream demand still has some room for growth. Overall, the future demand performance is more worthy of attention. With the interweaving of negative and positive market conditions on the supply and demand side, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a range oscillation trend in 2025.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since December 17th, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to decline weakly, with a drop of over 2%. On December 17th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton. On December 26th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.01%.

Poor demand for adipic acid leads to a weak and declining market

After December 17th, the domestic adipic acid market continued to weaken. The main reason is that the upstream raw material pure benzene and cyclohexanone have poor market conditions, with limited cost boosting effect, and the terminal demand for adipic acid procurement is average. Due to the ongoing supply pressure in the adipic acid market and the dominance of negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to weaken, with mainstream market prices ranging from 8100-8200 yuan/ton, indicating a weak and stable trend.

The analyst of Business Society’s adipic acid believes that the bearish trend is dominant, and in the short term, the rise of adipic acid market is still weak.

1、 Price trend

In 2024, the price of DMF experienced ups and downs, with the lowest point occurring in August when the price broke through 4000 yuan/ton and the highest point in January when the price was around 4800 yuan/ton. Since entering 2024, the price of DMF has shown a continuous downward trend. Due to overcapacity and long-term losses of factories, the DMF market has continued to decline, and prices have hit a new low in three years. In the past three years, DMF production capacity has nearly doubled, and traditional downstream acceptance has been slow, leading to an increase in market supply surplus contradictions.

2、 Review of DMF Market in 2024

In recent years, the overall production capacity of DMF has doubled, and the situation of overcapacity is obvious. Especially in the past three years, the production capacity has increased from 910000 tons to 1.77 million tons, and the supply-demand contradiction has become apparent. However, the downstream industry has been slow to accept it, and the demand follow-up is continuously insufficient. The significant increase in production capacity has led to many enterprises stopping work and production to alleviate inventory pressure. In the first half of 2024, at the end of March and the beginning of April, the 120000 ton DMF plant in Guizhou was successfully put into operation, and other DMF plant projects are following suit. Oversupply has caused the market price of DMF to continue to decline, and many enterprises have stopped production. In July 2024, the operating rate of DMF decreased to about 50%, and the factory has been operating at a loss.

DMF market under pressure in the second half of 2024

September 2024 is the traditional peak season for DMF. After the sustained trend in the first half of the year, the mentality of industry players has increased their expectations for the second half of the year, hoping that the market will improve. However, DMF experienced a brief rise in September and then fell back again, with downstream demand increasing and inventory rapidly emptying, causing a slight rebound in DMF prices. In December, prices declined again. The overall DMF market in 2024 is not optimistic, and companies are under pressure to operate. The mentality of stopping production and production is becoming more intense, and factory profits are continuously compressed. They continue to maintain low operating rates, but still fail to raise prices, and the mentality of industry players is pessimistic.

3、 Industrial chain structure

DMF is a widely used chemical raw material and an excellent solvent with a wide range of applications. Its industrial chain structure includes three parts: upstream raw materials, midstream DMF production, and downstream applications. The upstream main raw materials include carbon monoxide, dimethylamine, methanol, liquid ammonia, and sodium sulfide. Through the chemical reaction of these raw materials, midstream product DMF is produced. Midstream DMF, as an important organic solvent, is widely used in downstream industries such as PU (polyurethane) coatings, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and intermediates. It plays an important role and has a wide range of applications in the fields of chemical engineering, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

In the downstream demand structure of DMF, PU slurry is the largest downstream application of DMF, accounting for 59%. The terminal demand is for industries such as luggage, clothing, shoes, and hats, which are widely used in polyurethane coatings and synthetic leather. The electronics industry accounts for 20%, mainly used for electronic product manufacturing and processing, and the pharmaceutical industry accounts for 11%. DMF plays an important role as a solvent and reaction medium in drug synthesis, with intermediates accounting for 7%, used for synthesizing other chemical products, and other application areas accounting for 8%, covering multiple industries such as coatings, inks, and resins. Overall, PU slurry and the electronics industry are the main downstream markets for DMF, reflecting its importance in high-performance materials and high-tech manufacturing.

4、 Development Trends of DMF Market in 2025:

In terms of market demand

DMF, as an excellent solvent and important chemical raw material, is widely used in industries such as polyurethane (PU), electronics, synthetic fibers, pharmaceuticals, dyes, etc. Among them, DMF used in polyurethane (PU) slurry accounts for more than 60%. DMF’s end consumer products are mainly concentrated in clothing, shoes, hats, furniture, bags and other products. With the recovery of the economy, the textile and clothing industry has begun to recover, and the market price of PU slurry has begun to rise. Some industry insiders have pointed out that due to the overlap between most coal chemical products and petrochemical products, the price of coal chemical products will also rise to varying degrees due to the rise in raw oil prices.

Competitive landscape

At present, the market competition pattern of DMF is relatively stable, with concentrated production capacity and gradual elimination of small production capacity. Although new production capacity continues to be added, the competition pattern will be difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that several leading enterprises will continue to occupy the majority of the market share in 2025.

In terms of production capacity

In recent years, China’s DMF production capacity has been increasing year by year. From 2017 to 2023, the production capacity increased from 9.9 million tons to 1.72 million tons. Starting from 2024, the DMF operating rate has been relatively low. The peak of DMF operating rate was from 2018 to 2021, followed by a decreasing trend year by year. In 2024, the DMF operating rate continued to decrease at around 50%, and the overall industry is facing a situation of oversupply. It is expected that the overall market operating rate will remain the same this year in 2025, with the main focus on reducing inventory pressure. It is also possible to alleviate the situation of oversupply in the market by reducing production capacity. Overall, there is an urgent need to optimize capacity utilization and adjust market demand in 2025.

Expected increase in exports

In recent years, there have been significant fluctuations in DMF exports. Before 2020, the export status of DMF in China was relatively stable, but after 2021, there was a significant increase. The export volume in 2021 was 150000 tons, and the international market demand was relatively high, resulting in an increase in export volume. In 2022, the export volume decreased, reaching 130000 tons. In 2023, the export volume was 106000 tons, and it is expected to be around 140000 tons in 2024. However, the export volume in the past two years is far lower than that in 2021. From the development trend in recent years, it is expected that the export volume of DMF in 2025 will be comparable to that in 2024, with an estimated export volume of around 145000 tons.

In terms of consumption volume

Due to the overall fluctuation trend of apparent consumption in China’s DMF industry in recent years, the apparent consumption of DMF was 570000 tons in 2019, slightly declining to 528000 tons in 2020. With the recovery of the economy, the consumption rebounded to 639000 tons in 2021. The overall DMF market has performed well, with a significant increase in consumption. In 2022, the consumption decreased to 619000 tons due to insufficient demand, and the consumption decreased to 584000 tons in 2023. Overall, the Chinese DMF market has experienced significant fluctuations in the past few years, from being demanded to having overcapacity and oversupply. The current situation of oversupply is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and it is expected that the consumption will steadily increase in 2025. The supply side is loose, with an increase compared to 2024, but not too much.

Technical aspects

With the high attention paid by the country to environmental protection, environmental protection issues have become increasingly severe. Enterprises have strengthened their investment in green production technology, continuously promoted the high-end, green, and intelligent development of the chemical industry, discharged pollutants in the production process, improved resource utilization, eliminated outdated energy, increased productivity and reduced costs through technological innovation and improvement, thereby enhancing market competitiveness. It is expected that DMF will further improve in technology by 2025.

market prospect

In recent years, due to the oversupply of DMF production capacity in China, enterprises have turned their attention to the international market and actively developed export trade. The export volume of DMF is also relatively large. Currently, some foreign DMF production enterprises are planning to close their existing production facilities due to environmental protection, production costs, and other factors. This also provides an opportunity for China’s DMF production enterprises to develop foreign trade. It is expected that there will still be more than 100000 tons of exports in China every year by 2025. With the continuous development of downstream DMF products and the increasing demand gap abroad, China’s DMF will still have great development prospects. Overall, DMF is expected to steadily rise in 2025.

Shandong’s demand has declined, spot transactions have fallen short of expectations, and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods in the middle and lower reaches is average. As projects continue to shut down, the demand for essential procurement in the market is decreasing. The main refineries in East China maintain intermittent production, and most refineries mainly rely on shipping. Traders and social warehouses continue to ship goods. With the decrease in temperature and project closure, the market demand has significantly declined, and the supply of goods in circulation has also decreased. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3531 yuan/ton on December 22.

With the decline in temperature, the demand for asphalt in various regions has decreased. As the end of the year approaches, rush projects are gradually coming to an end. Due to funding issues, prices are relatively high, and winter storage enthusiasm is average, with some support on the cost side. Asphalt prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.