According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on June 10 was 38.82, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 61.18% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (September 1, 2011), and up 42.30% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since June 2022

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a fluctuating trend from June 6 to 10: the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 13090 yuan / ton on the 6th (Monday), and 13090 yuan / ton on the 10th (Friday). Among them, the highest price point of this week was 13140 yuan / ton on the 9th (Thursday), and the lowest price was 12920 yuan / ton on the 7th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.7% in the week.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

From the macro aspect of industrial analysis, on June 8, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise, with a significant increase. Under the expectation of supply tightening, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; On June 9, the international crude oil futures fell, the oil price was still running at a high point, and the supply and demand fundamentals did not change much. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: in Southeast Asia and China’s Yunnan production area, except for the impact of rain on the output, the overall rubber cutting is carried out in an orderly manner. The Hainan production area has been partially cut, and the output is very limited. It is said that the full cutting may be carried out in the middle of the year; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. Demand side: so far this month, some tire enterprises have stopped work for maintenance, which has affected the industry’s operating rate. The data show that as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1%, and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. The impact of public health incidents is weakening day by day. Under the leadership of the national policy of stabilizing the economy, a number of measures such as bank interest rates, automobile consumption and ensuring the circulation of goods have played a certain role in promoting the demand of the industry. On June 9, the Federation of passenger cars released the latest production and sales data, which showed that 1671000 passenger cars were produced in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a month on month increase of 69.5%; The retail sales volume was 1354000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month on month increase of 29.7%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.591 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a month on month increase of 67.8%. On the whole, the car market in May was significantly improved compared with April. The market generally believes that the car production and sales situation in June is expected to return to normal. In terms of inventory: statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced: on June 5, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 202700 tons year-on-year, down 41.2%; The bonded inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 3300 tons year-on-year, down 4.08%. On the same day, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1048700 tons, a decrease of 119000 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The analysis shows that it is more likely to enter the de stocking cycle again this month or next month.

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be some support in the short-term shock, focusing on the impact of the downstream demand increase and the output of new rubber on the market.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic natural rubber market was strong on June 9, with an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was about 13140 yuan / ton, up 1.39% compared with the previous trading day and 4.7% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise significantly on June 8. Under the expectation of tight supply, the US demand for gasoline increased unabated. Superimposed on the gradual recovery of China’s demand for oil, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars. On the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand is general, and the production in Yunnan Province of China is limited due to heavy rainfall. The production in Hainan Province has been partially cut, and the production is very limited; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. In terms of inventory, statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced. On the demand side, as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1% and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. In terms of futures, the external market continued to be strong, Shanghai Jiaotong rose in shock, and its positions increased significantly.

Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be a slight support in the short-term shock, and the focus will be on the impact of new rubber output on the market.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (June 8):3973.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China today is 0.42% lower than that of yesterday. Some domestic refinery units are still under maintenance. The inventory of enterprises is low, the quotation is high, the downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, the demand for sulfur purchase is weak, the ammonium phosphate Market is temporarily stable, mainly for just needed purchase, the sulfur market is high, and the downstream has resistance to high priced sulfur. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some refineries, The quotation is slightly reduced, the price of solid sulfur is reduced by 30 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur is reduced by 50-60 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

In May, DOTP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the DOTP price rose in May, and the overall DOTP market recovered. As of May 30, the price of DOTP was 12125 yuan / ton, up 1.46% from the price of DOTP of 11950 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the pressure on raw materials was great, the price of DOTP rose violently, and the DOTP market was strongly adjusted.

High price adjustment of isooctanol in May

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price was adjusted at a high level in May, and the overall isooctanol market recovered. As of May 30, the isooctanol price was 12533.33 yuan / ton, up 1.62% from 12333.33 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the high price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted, the cost pressure of DOTP remained, and the power of DOTP price rise was large.

PTA prices rose at a high level in May

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the PTA price rose in May, and the overall PTA market rose. As of May 30, the PTA price was 6860 yuan / ton, up 6.73% from the PTA price of 6427.27 yuan / ton on May 1. The crude oil price was adjusted at a high level, PTA price rose in May, DOTP cost support increased, and the downward pressure on DOTP remained due to its strong positive momentum.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, in May, crude oil prices were adjusted at a high level, PTA prices rose in shock, isooctanol prices were adjusted at a high level, DOTP costs rose, and the impetus for DOTP growth increased. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials is rising, and the momentum of DOTP rise is large. It is expected that the high price of DOTP will be adjusted in the future.

Price dynamics: on June 6, Sinopec Group in North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 9500 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical offered 9450 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 9500 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9500 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 9500 yuan / ton, Changling Refining & Chemical offers 9500 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 9550 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quoted 9253 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 9650 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market believes that the OPEC production increase plan has a limited impact on the tight supply situation. With the arrival of the peak demand for fuel oil in Europe and the United States and China’s relaxation of restrictions, the global supply is tightened and the expectation of demand growth is continuously strengthened, and the international oil price continues to rise.

Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, HSBC raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, Dongming Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical raised the price of pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and the external market continued to strengthen, with strong external support. Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9500 yuan / ton, driving the positive rise of the pure benzene market. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9200-9650 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the week was 7550.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the end of the week was 7587.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.50%, and the price increased by 66.39% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate Market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the market continued to rise this week. This is mainly because of the recent sharp rise in raw materials, the passive rise of potassium nitrate manufacturers, traders’ reluctance to sell goods, general market transactions, and the market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation of the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 7500-7700 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been strong and rising. On June 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory price was about 4480 yuan / ton, and the quotation increased by 500 yuan / ton. However, the domestic spot market is in short supply, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price of potassium chloride rises slightly. The high price of potassium chloride can provide strong cost support for potassium carbonate.

Recently, the price of potash fertilizer in China has remained at a high level, the cost has remained at a high level, and the market is in short supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details).

The cost side rose and the demand side recovered, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber rose in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of styrene butadiene 1502 was 12700 yuan / ton, up 6.80% from 11891 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber has increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 31, Sinopec North China sales company Qilu 1502 reported 12800 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price. The international oil price rose, the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene rose, and the cost side supported; In addition, the construction of downstream tire enterprises is between 60% and 70%, and most of them have the behavior of purchasing and replenishing stock, so the offer of traders is higher.

In May, the prices of butadiene and styrene rose, which strengthened the support of styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11274 yuan / ton, up 14.86% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the price of styrene was 10264 yuan / ton, up 5.46% from 9733 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

The natural rubber market rose slightly in May. As of May 31, the price was 12922 yuan / ton, up 3.28% from 12512 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: the analysts of the business community believe that the cost side is rising and the demand side is supporting. It is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level in the later period.

At present, the latest quotation of ethylene oxide industrial chain: the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, that of ethylene oxide in Central China is 7800 yuan / ton, that of ethylene oxide in South China is 7700 yuan / ton, that of ethylene oxide in North China is 7700 yuan / ton, and that of ethylene oxide in East China is 7700 yuan / ton.

Due to the double drag of cost and demand, the price of ethylene oxide has experienced an expected decline. At present, the latest ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 7800 yuan / ton.

Upstream ethylene has briefly returned to calm, but the weak supply-demand situation has not changed. However, the high prices of crude oil and naphtha limit the decline. Some market participants predict that ethylene may have a situation of limiting production and protecting prices. At present, the latest Northeast Asia ethylene outer disk price is $1050 / ton, Southeast Asia ethylene outer disk price is $1150 / ton, and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene’s quotation today is $8350 / ton, flat compared with the previous trading day. Based on the current outer disk price, Ethylene oxide is currently losing about 100 yuan. At present, the supply side of ethylene oxide is still abundant, the demand side continues to be under pressure and the possibility of improvement in the near future is small. Before the EO price reduction, the downstream monomer offer has begun to loosen, and some dealers have reduced the monomer price in advance. Today, the situation of a small negative decline in the monomer price still exists. The stimulation and boost effect of the ethylene oxide price reduction on the downstream is very limited.

Forecast: the fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious positive in the short term, and the decline is mainly digested.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8388.25 yuan / ton, up 3.13% from 8133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha rose.

According to the latest monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 31, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 8265.00 yuan / ton, up 3.05% from 8020.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining straight run naphtha rose as a whole.

On May 31, the naphtha commodity index was 103.53, up 0.87 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 145.10% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of local refined naphtha rose violently this month. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8200-8400 yuan / ton. In April, the international crude oil rose violently, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of May 25, the inventory of residual fuel oil including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil in Singapore increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

Upstream: in May, international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: in May, the price of toluene rose in a wide range. On May 1, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan / ton, and on May 27, the price was 7920 yuan / ton, an increase of 610 yuan / ton, or 8.34%, compared with the beginning of the month. In May, mixed xylene rose violently, and the price rose broadly. On May 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan / ton; On May 27, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 7.5% from the beginning of the month. In May, the price of p-xylene rose. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% from the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 54.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price rose sharply in May, supported by the naphtha cost, but there is no obvious positive effect on the terminal demand at present. The naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market turnover is general. At the end of the month, the terminal prepared goods before the holiday, and the refineries actively pushed up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may rise slightly.

Bisphenol A in East China market: 15100-15200 yuan / ton; light trading volume continues to decline

At the end of the month and the beginning of the week, the spot negotiation of bisphenol A was light, and the focus fell again. The offer of East China was 15100-15200 yuan / ton, while the offer of other factories was suspended, and the offer of lihuayi was 15100 yuan / ton. Today, the bidding of Zhejiang Petrochemical fell 200-300 yuan / ton again compared with last week, making the bisphenol a market worse. Today, the market became more bearish and the downward speed of the market accelerated.

region ., Quotation, Up and down

East China, 15100, – two hundred

Shandong region, 15150, – one hundred and fifty

Yesterday, the raw material phenol / acetone plants are now rising. Although the market follow-up is insufficient, the offer of the on-site shipholders is strong and the cost side is good. The mainstream offer of phenol in East China is 10700 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price of acetone in East China is 6000 yuan / ton, both of which are at the highest level in the month. However, the downstream epoxy resin and PC market declined broadly. Although the cargo holders made profit step by step, the actual single trading was still limited, and the pessimism in the market increased. The downstream liquid resin is offered in barrels of 25500-25800 yuan / ton, and the East China injection molding low-end is negotiated at 20000 yuan / ton, with few firm offers.

Since the market continued to decline in late May, the holders have been selling goods at a lower price. Although the raw material phenol ketone rose, it had little impact on the market. The downstream continued to fall and the trading volume was difficult to improve. The short-term market was still dominated by bad news. After a sharp decline, the holders’ intention to sell at a lower price weakened. Recently, they have paid attention to the downstream procurement and factory price adjustment.