According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on June 10 was 38.82, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 61.18% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (September 1, 2011), and up 42.30% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since June 2022
According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a fluctuating trend from June 6 to 10: the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 13090 yuan / ton on the 6th (Monday), and 13090 yuan / ton on the 10th (Friday). Among them, the highest price point of this week was 13140 yuan / ton on the 9th (Thursday), and the lowest price was 12920 yuan / ton on the 7th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.7% in the week.
Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022
From the macro aspect of industrial analysis, on June 8, the international crude oil futures price continued to rise, with a significant increase. Under the expectation of supply tightening, the oil market continued to heat up, and the rise of crude oil significantly boosted butadiene and synthetic rubber; On June 9, the international crude oil futures fell, the oil price was still running at a high point, and the supply and demand fundamentals did not change much. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. In the context of the country’s sustained and stable economy, the national leaders required to further open up the main artery and microcirculation of transportation and logistics, strengthen the freight support of key industries, regions and enterprises, and benefit the tire configuration demand of passenger cars.
Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022
Supply side: in Southeast Asia and China’s Yunnan production area, except for the impact of rain on the output, the overall rubber cutting is carried out in an orderly manner. The Hainan production area has been partially cut, and the output is very limited. It is said that the full cutting may be carried out in the middle of the year; Recently, the price of local made thick glue in China has continued to decline. Some data show that the decline since June has reached nearly 4000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 20%. Demand side: so far this month, some tire enterprises have stopped work for maintenance, which has affected the industry’s operating rate. The data show that as of the week of May 31, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire production lines closed at 56.1%, and that of semi steel tire production lines closed at 64.9%, with an overall year-on-year increase of +5.7%. With the introduction of policies to stimulate the consumption of passenger cars in various regions, the operating rate of semi steel tires has been significantly better than that of all steel tires, achieving a four week ring and year-on-year increase. The impact of public health incidents is weakening day by day. Under the leadership of the national policy of stabilizing the economy, a number of measures such as bank interest rates, automobile consumption and ensuring the circulation of goods have played a certain role in promoting the demand of the industry. On June 9, the Federation of passenger cars released the latest production and sales data, which showed that 1671000 passenger cars were produced in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a month on month increase of 69.5%; The retail sales volume was 1354000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month on month increase of 29.7%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.591 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a month on month increase of 67.8%. On the whole, the car market in May was significantly improved compared with April. The market generally believes that the car production and sales situation in June is expected to return to normal. In terms of inventory: statistics show that the inventory of natural rubber general trade warehouse and bonded area in Qingdao has been continuously reduced: on June 5, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 202700 tons year-on-year, down 41.2%; The bonded inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 3300 tons year-on-year, down 4.08%. On the same day, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1048700 tons, a decrease of 119000 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The analysis shows that it is more likely to enter the de stocking cycle again this month or next month.
Future forecast: the macro policy will be improved, the consumption stimulating policy will be issued, and the goods circulation conditions will be improved; The output of new rubber is limited, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao continues to be low; After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the local inventory spread rapidly, which was beneficial to the circulation and procurement of natural rubber. Due to the high inventory of finished tires, the tires in the short term were mainly consumed inventory. Driven by the policy, the operating rate of the tire factory was more selective. It is expected that there will be some support in the short-term shock, focusing on the impact of the downstream demand increase and the output of new rubber on the market.