At the beginning of July, the domestic EVA market price continued to be weak as a whole, and the price continued to fall. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 23400.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 23000.00 yuan / ton on July 6. During this period, the price fell by 1.71%, up 27.07% compared with the same period last year.

As of July 6, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Products, manufactor., model., Ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical, 18J3., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., Beijing Organic, Y2022., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., BASF Yangzi, V5110J., 25000 yuan / ton

In July, the domestic EVA market as a whole still weakened, and the ex factory quotations of petrochemical enterprises were individually reduced. Although the international crude oil price increased significantly at the beginning of the month, the cost side brought some support. However, the negative factors in the market are obvious, the terminal demand has not changed yet, the demand of downstream manufacturers remains rigid and needs to be followed up, the willingness to purchase is low, the market trading atmosphere is depressed, the merchants’ shipments are slow, most of them make profits to stimulate shipments, and the price is weak.

In terms of current costs, the international crude oil price fell sharply on the 5th, resulting in a bad market mentality, insufficient terminal demand, slow consumption of market supply, poor enthusiasm for downstream market entry, and a light overall trading atmosphere. It is expected that the price of domestic EVA market may still weaken in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, from June 24 to July 1, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell first from 10983 yuan / ton and then rose to 11016 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.30% in the week, and the price fell by 5.11% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 4.52%.

This week, domestic cyclohexanone fell first and then rose, and the market rebounded in a narrow range. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost is relatively stable. In the early stage, the pressure of cyclohexanone shipment was too high, and the price kept falling. With the restart of the downstream Lunan caprolactam plant, the self use of cyclohexanone increased, and the supply of commodities decreased. The downstream chemical fiber just needed to follow up. Coupled with the loss of cyclohexanone, cyclohexanone stopped falling and rebounded.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of July 1:

region ., Price

East China, 11300-11400 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11600-11800 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rises first and then falls. Crude oil rose continuously, and the market price rose driven by the demand for short supply at the end of the month. With the downward impact of bulk commodities and styrene, the market mentality has weakened and the center of gravity has weakened.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam fell. In terms of supply, the chemical plant in Lunan was restarted, and the overall operation in the North remained at a high level. The spot supply of caprolactam was sufficient, while the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the caprolactam market fell under pressure.

In the short term, pure benzene is operating at a high level, the cost support is still stable, and cyclohexanone has lost money, and the demand may increase. Cyclohexanone analysts of business society predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is expected to continue to rise in a narrow range.

The spot tin market price (6.24-7.1) fell after the market shock this week. The average price in the domestic market was 218110 yuan / ton last weekend and 203360 yuan / ton this weekend, down 6.76% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the overall trend of lead price is weak after April.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the 26th week of 2022 (6.27-7.1), there was a total of one commodity with a month on month increase in the non-ferrous sector, and the increase was antimony (1.22%). A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 1 commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were tin (-5.42%), silicon (-4.53%) and cobalt (-4.37%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.49%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 192000 yuan / ton- 12860 yuan / ton, four thousand four hundred and twenty-four

London tin, 26150 dollars / ton+ 975 dollars / ton, three thousand five hundred and sixty

In the futures market, Shanghai tin fell broadly this week, with a weekly drop of 12860 yuan / ton. The large decline this week was mainly affected by the entry of short funds. At present, the overall inventory of Shanghai tin is still low, and the market is significantly disturbed by funds. After the continuous rise of tin price in the past year, the market speculation was heavy, so the funds were withdrawing from profits. Later, this round led the decline of non-ferrous metals. After a month and a half of decline, the price was basically flat in the same period last year. From a fundamental point of view, the smelter has gradually entered the maintenance period since June. At present, the number of manufacturers offering prices in the market has decreased significantly, boosted by the reduction of supply sources. At present, the manufacturers have a strong attitude of supporting prices, the overall demand performance in the downstream is general, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will remain wide-ranging and volatile.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the natural rubber commodity index on July 1 was 38.41, up 0.29 points from yesterday, down 61.59% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 40.80% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since 2022

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week (June 27 July 1), the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market showed a fluctuating trend: the mainstream market in the domestic market on Monday was about 12870 yuan / ton, and on Friday was 12954 yuan / ton, up 0.65% week on week. Among them, the highest price of this month is 12954 yuan / ton on Friday, and the lowest price is 12854 yuan / ton on June 30, with a maximum amplitude of 0.78%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since 2022

From the macro perspective of industrial analysis, on June 30, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $105.76 / barrel, down $4.02 or 3.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $109.03 / barrel, down $3.42 or 3.04%. The main reason was that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (opec+) confirmed that its production increase in August was consistent with the previously announced increase, and the supply tension was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price was under pressure.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: the supply of Southeast Asian production areas continued to increase, the output of Yunnan production areas in China increased steadily, the output of Hainan increased, the output increased, the commencement of processing plants resumed, and the purchase price of local raw materials fell, or even fell by about 3000 yuan / ton. Inventory: the current import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: it is reported that recently, the operating rate of all steel tires has decreased on a weekly basis, while the operating rate of semi steel tires has rebounded. The average operating rate of semi steel tires and all steel tires in June was higher than that in May, which was also slightly lower in the fourth week. The inventory of finished tires is high, and the purchase of raw rubber has not been greatly improved; The production and sales of downstream vehicles increased month on month. In terms of import and export: since late June, the source of imported goods has increased significantly, especially the arrival of Vietnamese rubber, causing the price of Vietnamese rubber to decline significantly faster than that of Thai rubber. Statistics show that the import volume of natural latex from January to June 2022 was about 240800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of about 12.34%. Among them, the spot shortage of latex in major domestic import ports is serious, and the price is extremely high. At present, the barrel packaging of imported latex in Thailand is as high as 16000-16500 yuan / ton, and the shortage of supply leads to confusion in the market quotation; The obstinacy of downstream manufacturers towards brands has led to the very high price of cigarette adhesive like Hong Manli, ignoring the market price advantages of Lianyi, Taihua and other brand adhesives.

Aftermarket forecast: with the improvement of the situation of public health event control, the improvement of the domestic economy and the boost of policies such as automobile consumption, the demand of downstream tire and product factories will gradually improve. However, with the continuous supply of large quantities, it is expected that the natural rubber market is more likely to continue to fluctuate in the range, and the driving force for a substantial upward trend is still insufficient.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 28, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10666.67 yuan / ton, down 8.31% compared with that on June 1, down 11.36% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 27.93% compared with the same period last year.

The propylene oxide market fell in June. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene fell, the cost support was insufficient, the supply side was stable, the factory inventory was controllable, and the downstream reduction was followed up. The market was gradually under pressure, and the price stalemate of propylene oxide weakened. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fell, factory shipments were flat, and some units fluctuated, but the supply side was abundant, the downstream demand was light, the reduction and price reduction were followed up, the purchasing mentality was cautious, and the price of propylene oxide continued to decline.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, on June 28, the reference price of propylene was 7738.25, a decrease of 4.24% compared with June 1 (8080.60).

Downstream propylene glycol, domestic propylene glycol fell in June. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 28, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 12266 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol was 13533 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.36%..

The propylene oxide analyst of business agency believes that at present, the cost support is limited, the supply side has increased steadily, and the demand side support is still not strong. The market is cautious to wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be deadlocked and weakened, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market fell. As of June 29, the domestic market was 6732 yuan / ton, down 2.85% from the previous day and up 31.97% year-on-year.

The crude oil price remained upward, and the support for PTA cost was still strong. Most of the oil producing countries of OPEC are close to the upper limit of production capacity, and it is increasingly difficult to increase production in the later stage. With the discussion of new sanctions against Russian oil by the group of seven western countries, supply expectations are tightened to boost oil prices. On June 28, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $111.76/barrel; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was USD 113.80/barrel.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry has dropped below 80%, and there is an expectation of overhaul due to the high operating rate. Among them, two sets of 6.6 million ton PTA units of Yisheng new material reduced the load by 20% on June 29, and the recovery time is to be determined. The 1million ton unit of chuanneng chemical was overhauled for one week on June 28. In addition, in July, two units of Hengli petrochemical and fuhaichuang planned to be overhauled.

However, the start-up of terminal load is still about 56% lower, and the enthusiasm for PTA stock up is poor. The news that the downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production led to the decline of PTA. Business analysts believe that demand drag, short-term PTA market shocks weak.

From June 1 to June 28, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price fluctuated upward. The price at the beginning of the month was 5087.50 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 5322.50 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 4.62%.

On June 27, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 183.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.23% from the highest point of 189.66 in the cycle (2022-05-18), and up 289.25% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Changes in the bidding price of coal, coke and oil in Shanxi in June 2022 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, Price on June 9, Price on June 16, Price on June 23, Monthly rise and fall

Linfen, 4950.,5050., 5290.,+340

Luliang, 4980.,5090., 5290.,+310

Taiyuan, 4950.,5050., 5330.,+380

In June, 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi rose as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the obvious rise of industrial naphthalene in Shanxi boosted the market mentality. The downstream goods were actively received, and the bidding price increased significantly. At the end of the month, although the downstream deep processing industry suffered widespread losses recently and had a strong mentality of resisting high price tar, the bidding price increased again due to the tight supply of tar in Shanxi.

In June, the coal tar market fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market performance of different regions was different. The downward enterprises before the festival decreased slightly this week, and the upward regions before the festival made a sharp correction at the beginning of the month. The main reason was the market demand. At the beginning of the month, the price of coal tar pitch was significantly reduced by 200-300 yuan / ton. The overall profit of the deep processing industry was low, and the resistance to high price tar was strong, which dragged down the correction of tar price. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the price of naphthalene, the main commodity in the downstream of tar, rose sharply, and the increase in the main domestic production areas was 300-400 yuan / ton, driving the overall rise in the price of tar. With the sharp increase in the price of tar, some of the downstream had strong resistance, especially the resistance of loss making commodities. At the end of the month, although the downstream deep processing industry has suffered losses in recent years and has a strong resistance to high price tar, coking enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production due to the impact of profits, which is generally concentrated at 30-40%, affecting the recent tar output. Boosted by the tight supply of tar, the bidding price in the tar market continued to rise. By the time of press release, the implementation rate in Shandong is 5180 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 5200 yuan / ton.

In terms of commencement: in the first half of this month, the overall commencement of coking enterprises was relatively high. With the two rounds of increase in coke prices, the enterprises started actively and the tar supply was stable. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the coke was dragged down by the downstream demand, and the first round of increase and decrease of 300 yuan / ton was started. The increase before was reversed. The profit of coking enterprises was damaged, and the operating rate declined significantly as a whole. Many enterprises took the initiative to limit production, and the tar output decreased accordingly.

In the future, affected by the poor confidence of coke enterprises in the near future, the market expects that the future production will still be limited, and the tar output will still be low at that time. With the boost of tight supply, the tar market is stable, medium and strong.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 27, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was set at 20480 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 1, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 22560 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 1080 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.22%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in June, the domestic organosilicon DMC market as a whole showed a downward trend. In early June, after returning from the Dragon Boat Festival, the organosilicon DMC market experienced a rapid decline and rapid rise. In the four days after the festival, major manufacturers in Shandong adjusted prices for four consecutive times, with a price fluctuation of 2300 yuan / ton. On the 7th, after Shandong significantly reduced the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 20000 yuan / ton, it adjusted the price back to around 22300 yuan / ton on June 9. Other factories also have a small price adjustment trend with the fluctuation of large factories. In the middle and late June, due to the insufficient downstream demand and the limited digestion capacity of raw materials, the domestic organosilicon DMC market started to run downward. Shandong big manufacturers and leading monomer factories successively adjusted the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC. As of June 27, the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC in Shandong big manufacturers was around 20200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC in domestic manufacturers was around 20200-20800 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, The price is reduced by about 1000-2000 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for organosilicon DMC is still cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is still on the floor.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in June, the domestic metal silicon product name: 441\t\t market rose as a whole. As of June 27, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic metal silicon reference price was 19450 yuan / ton, up 12.88% compared with June 1 (17230 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the downstream demand in the organosilicon DMC field is generally quiet, and the demand breakthrough has not yet emerged. Although the demand side support performance is average, the rising metal silicon market at the raw material side has given organosilicon DMC cost support. In addition, the current price has also dropped to the recent low point. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mostly stable and stable, and the possibility of the market continuing to decline significantly is small, Specific trends also need to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell slightly this week (June 17-june 24). As of June 24, the acrylonitrile price was 10980 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from 11080 yuan / ton on June 17. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell their stocks at low prices. As of June 24, the acrylonitrile market offer in East China was between 10700 and 11200 yuan / ton.

This week (6.17-6.24), the price of raw propylene fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 24, the domestic propylene price was 7813 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from 7958 yuan / ton on June 17.

This week (6.17-6.24), the downstream ABS, acrylic fiber and acrylamide industries started basically, and the demand for acrylonitrile has a certain support, but the supply of acrylonitrile continues to be under pressure.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analysts of business club believe that the current supply pressure restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Paraformaldehyde price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, on June 23, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5383 yuan / ton, and the quotation remained stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol producers was 2712 yuan / ton on June 17, and 2655 yuan / ton on June 23, down 2.12%. On June 17, the average price of formaldehyde producers in Shandong was 1293 yuan / ton, and on June 23, the average price of formaldehyde producers in Shandong was 1286 yuan / ton, down 0.15%.

The domestic methanol market fell this week. Polyoxymethylene enterprises mainly offer firm prices, and the market is generally sold. The polyoxymethylene analysts of the business club predict that polyoxymethylene may be lowered.