1、 Price data

As of August 21, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 8093.33 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from 8076.67 yuan / ton on August 15. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100 yuan / ton.

As of August 21, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7967.50 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from 7957.50 yuan / ton on August 15. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 8000 yuan / ton.

On August 21, the naphtha commodity index was 99.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 17.88% from the highest point 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle and up 136.48% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the price continued to rise due to the high price of gasoline, diesel and reforming products; In the second half of the week, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, and the market price of naphtha fell.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data are generally weak, which once again raises the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which makes the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, toluene rose slightly this week. On August 12, the price was 7460 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the price was 7480 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.27% over last week. This week, the price of mixed xylene was stable and small. On August 12, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business news agency, the international crude oil price fluctuated this week, the naphtha market had a strong wait-and-see attitude, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, the naphtha market price fell, the terminal demand was not significantly favorable, and the market was cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refined in the near future will be mainly processed.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6570 yuan / ton last Friday and 6325 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 3.73% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC decreased. At present, the spot market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods is not high. This week, the futures prices showed a downward trend of increasing positions as a whole. In addition, the real estate data continued to perform poorly, the market confidence was obviously insufficient, the market situation weakened, and the sales of carriers were under pressure. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 5950-6580 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, on August 19, the domestic SC crude oil futures rose, and the international oil price rebounded for two consecutive trading days. On Thursday, Brent crude oil rose by more than 3%, and SC crude oil rose in the internal market. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by 3.40% to close at 692.7 yuan. The US economic data showed strong performance. Last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased to 250000, the first drop in three weeks, indicating that the demand for labor is still healthy. In addition, the commercial crude oil inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was good, and the crude oil and gasoline inventories fell sharply more than expected. The fuel demand was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession. Future forecast: according to the crude oil analysts of business club, in the short term, the oil price may also be affected by sudden factors in addition to the basic factors. The hurricane climate in North America is approaching. According to the judgment of previous years, it may damage the refinery facilities along the Gulf of Mexico, which may help the oil price rebound. In addition, in the medium term, it may be affected by the soaring natural gas price in Europe, which will drive the oil price higher. In the long run, the risk of economic recession and epidemic situation are still the biggest constraints on oil prices, and the risk of far-end oil prices is high.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide last Friday was 4050 yuan / ton, and the average price of this Friday was 3766.67 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 7% during the week. This week, the factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable, and the prices of individual enterprises increased. The price of blue carbon in the upstream is low, and the cost is generally supported. The price of PVC in the downstream decreases slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakens.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general. The performance of real estate data is poor, and the downstream enterprises mostly wait and see. The trading is not warm and the market trading atmosphere is general. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still be shaken and sorted out. We will pay close attention to the changes in the news.

Price trend

According to the data of the business community’s bulk list, this week the POM market was adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the spot prices of various brands were mainly stable. As of August 18, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding grade sample enterprises of business community was about 18733.33 yuan / ton, up or down + 1.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, this week, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong was weak and consolidated, and the market was basically stable. The domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level, and the transaction was general. The traders just needed to replenish, and their mood was poor. The cost support is general, the downstream operating rate has not been greatly improved, the just needed purchase is maintained, the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments, and the market is weak. The demand of wood panel factory is weak, and the price of formaldehyde is expected to fall slightly.

The upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost side is generally supported. In terms of industrial load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently. This week, Yuntianhua has a production line parking, but 80% of the industry’s operating rate leads to high supply, and the competition in the field is strong. The inventory of manufacturers and midstream is high, and the off-season market continues. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The consumption of POM continues to lag. The main support point of spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing operations, mainly taking small orders and resisting high-priced goods sources, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the offer of the merchants is stable but drops secretly. The offer mainly follows the enterprise or follows the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is stable but weak this week, the upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost is generally supported. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of supply side is poor. However, the consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment. It is expected that the price of POM will fall in the short term due to the continuous contradiction between supply and demand.

On August 17, the domestic cobalt price rebounded and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price rose on August 17, and the cobalt market recovered. On August 17, the cobalt price was 342400 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.03% over the cobalt price of 342300 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The recent purchase and storage news stimulated the cobalt price to rise.

Key points of analysis

The LME market cobalt price fluctuated and fell, the MB cobalt price fluctuated and rose, and the international cobalt price recovered and rose; The installed capacity of ternary batteries increased, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, the sales volume of mobile phones decreased, and the domestic cobalt market supply declined due to the stimulation of the national storage information. The price of cobalt salt rises, and the driving force of metal cobalt increases.

Future forecast

The demand is stable and the supply is declining, the cobalt industry chain is rising, and the driving force of cobalt price is increasing. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise in the future.

Last week (August 8-15), the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, the viscose staple fiber market was deadlocked, showing a situation of price without market, and the price was stable. The operation rate of the downstream cotton yarn factory is low, and the enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials is not high. Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the speed reduction production method to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and the rising inventory, and at the same time, delay their own pulp inventory consumption. The cotton yarn price of downstream people fell, the popularity was low, and the inventory was high.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of viscose staple fiber was stable last week (August 8-15). As of August 15, 2022, the ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15400 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month. The price of human cotton yarn fell, and the average ex factory price (30s, ring spinning, first-class goods) was 18666 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 100 yuan / ton.

Cotton yarn Market

Cotton yarn price trend chart

From the analysis of the reasons, the cost support is not reduced, the market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high, and the production cost of viscose staple fiber is generally maintained at a high level. However, the downstream demand for cotton yarn is weak, showing a situation of price without market. The factory inventory increases, the factory is cautious, and the desire to stabilize the price is strong. The operating rate of the cotton yarn factory is low, around 40-50%.

Future forecast

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the textile terminal demand continues to be flat, the trading volume is always general, and the downstream order receiving volume is always general. The whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber shows a situation of price without market, and the factory inventory increases. Most people wait for viscose staple fiber factories to introduce appropriate price policies in cotton yarn factories. Business analysts predict that viscose staple fiber prices will face downward pressure.

Since August, the domestic spandex market has maintained a downward trend. According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of August 15, the average market price was 34100 yuan / ton, down 6.58% from the beginning of the month and 59.01% year-on-year. The supply of spandex manufacturers was stable. The spandex industry started 60% of the project, and the project started to decline.

The cost side support is weakened, the market price of PTMEG is weak and volatile, and the suppliers continue to make profit. The market price of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) is 24000-25000 yuan / ton. The pure MDI market declined slightly, and traders mostly shipped with them. The downstream demand was sluggish. The market reference price was 18200-18700 yuan / ton for telegraphic transfer barrel.

Half of August has passed, and the downstream terminal market just needs to take delivery. The overall market is full of wait-and-see atmosphere, and the actual delivery is based on sales. At the same time, according to the current orderly power consumption policy implemented in Zhejiang, some enterprises have stopped and reduced their load. The round machine industry has started 30-40%, and the warp knitting industry has started 60%. The overall startup rate has dropped significantly.

Business analysts believe that the support role of the cost side will be reduced, and downstream customers will continue to purchase just needed. All parties hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, and it is expected that the spandex market will be weak in the short term.

This week, DOTP prices fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOTP price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 12, the DOTP price was 9087.50 yuan / ton, down 2.28% from the DOTP price of 9300 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. The demand is weak, and the DOTP market falls this week.

This week, the price of isooctanol was strong and temporarily stable

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol was strong and stable this week. As of August 12, the price of isooctanol was 8466.67 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that of 8466.67 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week, and increased by 2.83% compared with that of 8233.33 yuan / ton on August 7 at the end of last week. This week, the price of isooctanol was strong and stable for the time being. The market of isooctanol recovered, and the driving force for the future market still exists.

PTA price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 12, the PTA price was 6183.33 yuan / ton, up 6.15% from the PTA price of 5825 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend. This week, PTA enterprises stopped for more maintenance, PTA supply decreased, PTA price fluctuated and increased, raw material price increased, DOTP cost increased, and the driving force for DOTP increase increased.

This week, PVC prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 12, the PVC price was 6570 yuan / ton, down 1.96% from 6701.43 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the PVC price of 6668.57 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend, the price decreased by 1.48%. Affected by the high temperature, power supply and production were limited in some areas, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell, the demand for DOTP declined, and the downward pressure of DOTP in the future increased.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, PTA equipment has been shut down and overhauled more recently due to the impact of high temperature limit, and PTA prices have been surging up; The price of isooctanol stabilized strongly and the cost of DOTP increased; The operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased, and the demand for PVC decreased. In the future, the price of DOTP raw materials will rise, the cost of DOTP will rise, the commencement of PVC will fall, the demand of DOTP will fall, and the pressure of DOTP will increase. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 11, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream regions was reference at 18960 yuan / ton, and compared with the price on August 7, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 19060 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 120 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.52%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (8.7-8.11), the domestic silicone DMC market was stable and consolidated. At the beginning of the week, on August 8, the focus of silicone DMC market was slightly down, and the downstream buying was cautious. The ex factory price of silicone DMC of Shandong large factory was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to close to 18800 yuan / ton. With the rise of the cost side market, the cost support of silicone DMC has been strengthened, and the price stabilization mentality of the operators has been strengthened. Subsequently, the mainstream offers in the silicone DMC market have been operating steadily. As of August 11, the market price of domestic silicone DMC is around 18900-19000 yuan / ton. At present, the mentality of the silicone DMC industry is relatively strong, and the market trading atmosphere is general., The order volume is good, and the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is acceptable.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, from the beginning of August to the present (8.1-8.10), the domestic metal silicon market of 441 # metal silicon has shown an overall upward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 10, the reference price of metal silicon was 18600 yuan / ton, up 3.39% compared with August 1 (17990 yuan / ton).

Forecast of the future trend of silicone DMC Market

At present, the continuous rise of raw materials has brought support to the mentality of the industry, but the performance of the demand side is still cautious. The silicone DMC data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly be adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 8, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a power type premium product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated steadily. The price fluctuation range was not large. You Gang mainly needed to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply of goods is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. The contract customers mainly arrange orders and deliver goods, and the number of new orders is limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

The price of lithium iron phosphate is 155000 yuan / ton. The price fluctuation of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious, and it operates smoothly. The price fluctuation range of the main products is not large. Yougang mainly needs to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market operates smoothly. At present, the supply of goods from the manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. The main products are orders and deliveries from contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, The current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate: as of July 27, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 461000 yuan / ton, up 0.44% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 459000 yuan / ton on July 1). On July 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 479600 yuan / ton, which was 0.33% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 478000 yuan / ton according to the report on July 1).

Chemical commodity index: on August 7, the chemical index was 977 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 30.21% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 63.38% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the analysis of lithium iron phosphate of business society, lithium iron phosphate will run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 9, the average price of PMMA of general transparent grade and excellent products in China this week was 16475.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the price of the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was small. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent grade excellent products is 16875.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is around 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants are actively shipping and giving up orders. Compared with the price of last week, the price of PMMA is stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on August 8, the rubber and plastic index was 717 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 32.36% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 35.80% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that the stable operation of PMMA price is expected in the short term and the stable operation of PMMA market in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).