1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week, with the average domestic PVC price of 613333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6041.67 yuan/ton on Friday. The price fell 1.49% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC continued to decline this week. This week, the spot market was relatively light, with futures market prices underperforming. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was significantly reduced, and raw material support was weak. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence in the market. The inquiry atmosphere in the spot market is weak, and prices are falling. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see, and actual orders are cautiously traded. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5700-6250 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, according to monitoring, the domestic price of 92 # gasoline on the 23rd was 8456.4 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the price on the 10th; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil is 7555.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the price on the 10th. Since the middle of the year, the crude oil market price has decreased significantly. Due to cost factors, the market price of refined oil has decreased slightly.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average price of calcium carbide at the beginning of the week was 3350 yuan/ton, compared to 3066.67 yuan/ton on Friday, with a decrease of 8.46% during the week. The price of calcium carbide manufacturers fell sharply this week. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1250 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average carbide cost support. The downstream PVC market has recently declined slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. Superimposed high calcium carbide inventory, resulting in oversupply. In the future, it is expected that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and fall, with the main trend being consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 3000 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

PVC analysts from Business News believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand for PVC spot market is weak. Upstream calcium carbide prices fell sharply, while crude oil market prices fell sharply, leaving the overall market atmosphere somewhat empty. It is expected that in the short term, there is no shortage of possibility for the PVC market to continue to explore, and close attention will be paid to changes in the news.

The domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has increased. As of the 17th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8700 yuan/ton, 1.90% higher than the price of 8537.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable. The delivery situation of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly.

Cost side: price trend of ortho benzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene has increased. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend has increased by 2.41%. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory has decreased. The rise in ortho benzene price has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has increased slightly.

Demand side: The trend of DOP market is volatile, mainly based on demand procurement

The price trend in the downstream DOP market has fluctuated, with a slight increase of 0.10% this week. Currently, the domestic DOP price is 10010 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started operations steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand procurement. The mainstream DOP price is between 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand in the plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level due to the impact of the DOP price fluctuation, but the overall price has increased slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the short-term price trend of ortho xylene is mainly upward, but the downstream plasticizer industry is operating in a volatile manner. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand situation is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride will slightly increase in the future.

This week (3.13~3.20), the market for dichloromethane declined slightly. As of March 20, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2767 yuan/ton, down 2.72% from last Monday’s 2845 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the cost support for dichloromethane slightly weakened; The downstream refrigerant R32 price continues to rise slightly. In the peak season, support for dichloromethane procurement is just needed, but the supply of methane chloride is loose. The factory price of dichloromethane enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and the price of dichloromethane has decreased slightly.

This week (3.13~3.20), the start of the methane chloride plant fluctuated slightly, but the start of dichloromethane is still at a high level and the supply side is loose.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support for dichloromethane was weak. According to the business news agency, as of March 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2633 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from 2647 yuan/ton last Monday. The low consolidation of international crude oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the domestic raw material coal range, will not lead to a significant upward trend in methanol prices in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane is expected to be stable and weak.

This week (3.13~3.20), the downstream refrigerant gradually entered the traditional peak season of the industry, with the inventory consumption and price of the downstream third generation refrigerant R32 rising, and dichloromethane replenished as needed. In addition, downstream pharmaceutical and diluent industries also have a strong demand for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business News Agency, the downstream of dichloromethane is currently in need of support, but the industry is still at a high level and the supply side is loose, coupled with insufficient support on the cost side. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

DOP prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of DOP was 10130 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.30% compared to the price of DOP of 10000 yuan/ton on March 10. Cost support still exists, and this week’s DOP market fluctuated and rose.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, as of March 20, the price of isooctanol was 9321.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared to the fluctuating price of isooctanol of 9285.71 yuan/ton on March 10. This week, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose, and the cost of DOP raw materials increased. The upward momentum of DOP increased, and downward pressure remained.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and declined

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of March 20, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.96% compared to the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 10. The price of o-xylene rose, but the willingness to stand up for phthalic anhydride remained. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after a shock rise, resulting in a stalemate in the market for phthalic anhydride and a strong upward momentum for DOP.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOP data analysts from the Business News Agency, the price of isooctanol, a raw material for DOP, fluctuated and rose this week, while the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant after rising, and the cost of DOP stabilized after rising. In the future, the demand for DOP is temporarily stable and the cost is recovering. It is expected that the price of DOP will consolidate strongly in the future.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price remained stable and advanced overall this week. The average weekly price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2416.67 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 2416.67 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged overall.

In the middle of March, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market as a whole maintained a stable progress, with the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range of 2400-2500 yuan/ton this week. The rising trend of raw material costs has stabilized, the overall operating rate of sodium metabisulfite production enterprises is low, the inventory of sodium metabisulfite is relatively low, and enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not yet been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the manufacturer’s final pricing. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of March 17, the price of domestic soda ash stabilized and then slightly decreased, with a monthly decrease of 0.36%. The price of sulfur rose by 7.69%. The overall price of upstream raw materials stabilized and then slightly decreased. The cost stabilization will support the continued strong and stable operation of the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market in the future.

Aftermarket Forecast

Analysts from Business News believe that the overall upward trend of upstream raw material prices is stabilizing, and in the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will follow the overall stable progress of cost.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and fell this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 69021.67 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from 69285 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.14% year on year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, in the past three months, the price of copper rose by 7% and fell by 4%, and there was a slight correction after the recent slight rebound.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopic aspect: In his testimony to Congress this week, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the Federal Reserve may speed up the pace of interest rate increase and raise the interest rate to a higher level than previously expected, which has heightened people’s concerns about economic activity and global industrial metal demand. China’s CPI fell in February, with a year-on-year increase of 1%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 0.5% lower than the previous month; The production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI was flat on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The year-on-year decrease was 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

Supply side: China’s refined copper output in February was 907800 tons, up 6.5% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 900000 tons. The electrolytic copper output in March may continue to exceed expectations, and the interference at the South American mining end is slightly slow. Many long-awaited projects will reach production in 2023-2024, including those in Peru, Chile, Central Africa and Mongolia. It is estimated that by the end of 2024, the copper supply will increase by about 12% from that of 2021. Not only will the supply of primary copper ore increase, but also the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase.

On the demand side: the operating rate of refined copper rod was 62.1%, and the circumferential ratio rose by 3.5 percentage points; The operating rate of regenerated copper rod was 58.52%, and the circumferential ratio decreased by 1.8 percentage points. The price difference of refined waste is around 1700 yuan/ton, and the substitution of recycled copper for refined copper consumption is enhanced. In terms of terminals, processing and downstream enterprises gradually resumed production, and orders for wires and cables and enameled wires increased.

To sum up, the short-term macro market suppresses the copper price, and the supply has increased. However, the domestic market has entered the seasonal consumption season, and the demand is expected to increase. In the case of both supply and demand, the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.

The market of dichloromethane has risen since March

The market price of dichloromethane has risen since March. As of March 13, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2845 yuan/ton, up 6.75% from 2665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support of dichloromethane weakened slightly; Downstream refrigerant R32 prices rose sharply, which just needed support for dichloromethane procurement, and the factory price of dichloromethane enterprises was slightly adjusted upward; The price of dichloromethane rose.

The basic game of the industrial chain is the late or narrow fluctuation of dichloromethane

Since March, the start of methane chloride unit has risen slightly, and the pressure of dichloromethane supply has increased, which has a negative impact on the market of dichloromethane in the later period.

Since March, the price of raw material methanol has declined slightly, and the cost support of dichloromethane has weakened. According to the business news agency, the spot price of methanol was 2647 yuan/ton as of March 13, down 3.23% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the 13th, the international crude oil price fell sharply, and the domestic coal market as a whole was stable and slightly fluctuating. The methanol price would not rise significantly in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane was expected to be stable and weak.

Since March, the downstream refrigerant has gradually entered the traditional peak season of the industry. The inventory consumption and price of the downstream third-generation refrigerant R32 have increased, and dichloromethane has been replenished as needed. In addition, the demand for dichloromethane in downstream pharmaceutical and diluent industries also increased slightly. The demand for dichloromethane has a rigid need for support.

Future prediction: The methane chloride data analyst of the Business News believes that the downstream of dichloromethane just needs to be supported, but the early maintenance device is restarted, there is a slight pressure on the supply side, and the support on the cost side is insufficient. Due to the basic game of the industrial chain, the market of dichloromethane is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Price trend

In the first ten days of March, the domestic EVA market was stable and positive, and the spot price generally rose. As of March 13, the average ex-factory price of EVA in China was 16766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.71% from the beginning of the month, according to the monitoring data of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

In the near future, the market of ethylene at the raw material end has been stable after rising, and the good news such as the shutdown and maintenance of South Korean devices in the early stage has been gradually exhausted, and the increase of market supply and inventory is expected. However, the price of petroleum naphtha at the cost side has strengthened, and ethylene has been supported to some extent, and the overall market is strong. The domestic downstream plants of vinyl acetate are generally in operation, and the on-site consumption tends to be just in demand. The load of calcium carbide method device on the supply side is low, and the quantity of goods in the field is acceptable. The strong cost and the lagging demand coexist, and the spot price is stable and small. The market of raw materials is relatively stable, and the support for EVA market is general.

Supply:

In the past two weeks, domestic EVA manufacturers have been operating steadily in terms of load. The current industry operating rate is 79.5%, up 1.3% from the beginning of the month. At the same time, domestic production was stable, with a total output of 36200 tons last week, almost unchanged from the previous week. The factory inventory pressure is low, and the supplier has some support for the spot goods. The ex-factory price of the manufacturer is in line with the price, and the price of the auction source is rising steadily. Spot prices of mainstream brands generally rose by more than 500 yuan/ton.

Demand:

In the near future, the domestic market atmosphere of EVA is optimistic, and the momentum of the downstream market of the industrial chain and the mentality of the industry have increased simultaneously. At present, the downstream photovoltaic materials, the main force of EVA, are smoothly shipped, and the consumption continues to support the price market. On the other hand, the demand for foaming materials is differentiated from that of photovoltaic materials. The improvement of the delivery of foaming materials such as shoe materials is limited, and the follow-up is relatively slow, and the transaction continues to be flat. EVA demand-side support mainly comes from photovoltaic materials.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the recent EVA market performance is positive and the price is rising steadily. The raw material market is generally stable, and the support for EVA spot is stable. The starting point of downstream demand support is concentrated on photovoltaic materials, and replenishment is mainly to follow up the rigid demand. EVA polymerization plant inventory continued to be stable, and the ex-factory price was firm. The merchants’ mentality is supported by the suppliers and the offer keeps rising. It is expected that the domestic market of EVA will mainly digest the increase, and the price may run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3350 yuan/ton on March 6, and that of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3330 yuan/ton on March 10. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.60% this week.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton on March 6, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton on March 10. The market price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur rose, and the cost support was good. Downstream demand is weak, and intra-field transactions are small. As of March 10, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was about 3300 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan was about 3250-3350 yuan/ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan was about 3250-3450 yuan/ton, which was mainly based on actual negotiation.

The price of DAP was stable this week. The price of raw materials is high and the cost support is strong. The supply of diammonium chloride is tight and the price remains firm. At present, there are many orders to be issued, and most manufacturers suspend the receipt of orders. As of March 10, the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in North China was about 3950-4050 yuan/ton, and the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in Shandong was about 4000-4170 yuan/ton. The actual deal was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week. The sulfur refinery unit operates normally, the market supply is stable, the terminal industry has good delivery and investment, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchase in the market has increased. The sulfur refinery is actively shipping, and some manufacturers have raised their prices according to their own inventory.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. The domestic phosphorus ore market rose slightly this week. With the coming of the spring planting season, the demand for phosphate fertilizer downstream of the phosphate rock terminal will also gradually increase. The demand side will give more support to the phosphate rock. The supply in the phosphate rock field will continue to be tight. With the joint support of supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock market will continue to close up.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the business agency, the price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur has risen recently, which has caused great cost pressure. The demand for monoammonium is light, and the transactions on the market are relatively small, and the pending orders for diammonium are mainly. It is expected that the stable operation of ammonium phosphate will prevail in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 7, the average nickel spot market price was 197233.33 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from the previous trading day and 6.6% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, the price of nickel has been falling from 23 million yuan to 190 thousand yuan. It has fallen 17.45% in two months, and is now rebounding from the low point. The current price is equivalent to the price in the middle of October 2022. The current nickel price has fallen and rebounded. Has the nickel price reached the inflection point?

Historical price curve of nickel in ten years:

According to the price data of the Business Agency, the current nickel price is at a relatively high level in 12 years, which is the same as the price in the middle of October last year.

Annual nickel price comparison chart:

According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community, except for the sharp rise of nickel price in March 2022 due to the warehouse squeeze, which once soared to 300000 tons, the nickel price in March 2020 and 2021 fell slightly.

Loose supply expectations

In February, the Philippines shipped 23 ships of nickel ore, about 1.09 million wet tons, about the same year on year; The arrival of nickel ore in China’s major ports was about 1.69 million wet tons, down 10% from January. The nickel ore port destocks 300000 wet tons (4.5%). The newly-built pure nickel production capacity is still to be released, and the domestic smelters are also expected to increase. The supply shortage of pure nickel has been alleviated, and the existing production line of Jinchuan Group has increased by 600 tons/month; There are also enterprises in the market that purchase nickel sulfate and prepare electrolytic nickel. The output is about 300 tons/month. Since the beginning of the year, the supply of nickel market has been significantly sufficient. It is expected that the output of pure nickel will be in a climbing state in March. The import side is expected to increase after the news of Russian nickel mixed pricing came out last week.

Demand has warmed up

Although the contradiction of stainless steel supply is difficult to solve for a while, it also forces some enterprises to start the maintenance plan in advance, and last week, the stainless steel went to the warehouse slightly, and the demand showed a warming signal; In the new energy vehicle industry, according to the data, the global sales of new energy vehicles in January 2023 was 658000, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, penetration rate of 12.1%, and China’s share of 56.9%. At the same time, the policy helped to stimulate demand, and the share of new energy vehicles market was expected to increase unchanged.

FCA will take regulatory action on LME

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has begun a “mandatory” investigation of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which froze and cancelled billions of dollars worth of nickel trading in response to the historic price surge. The Financial Conduct Authority will monitor LME’s efforts to improve its shortcomings in behavior, control and governance, which were exposed when the Exchange suspended the nickel market a year ago. FCA will investigate some behaviors, systems and control measures of LME during the freezing of nickel trading at the beginning of 2022.

LME inventory

As of March 7, LME nickel inventory was 444.18 million tons, down 24.67% from the beginning of the year. The current inventory is at a relatively low level.

To sum up: nickel prices have been falling since the beginning of the year, and spot nickel rebounded slightly on March 7, which seems to have a reversal trend. However, from the perspective of nickel price fundamentals, domestic nickel supply is expected to be loose, and demand has slightly recovered. The price comparison data of the past three years shows that, except for the sharp rise of nickel price due to the squeeze in March 2022, and the slight drop in price in 2021 and 2020, the FCA is now supervising LME, and it is unlikely that there will be a similar surge in squeeze price. In general, the supply is loose, and the nickel price does not have the conditions for unilateral rise for the time being. However, supported by the low inventory and the recovery of demand, the price has limited room for further decline. It is expected that the short-term low volatility trend of nickel price will prevail.