Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

1. In the morning opening, Lihua yiweiyuan raised its listing price, and phenol increased by 300 to 9000 yuan / ton. The factory continued to control the volume of shipments, and local traders followed suit to push up the offer.

2. Subsequently, Huizhou Zhongxin 300000 t / a phenol ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on July 20. The restart time is still uncertain, and the platform continues to pay attention to the trend.

3. In the afternoon, Sinopec East China and Gaoqiao Petrochemical raised phenol by 300 to 8900 yuan / ton. Sinopec Mitsui raised 300 to 8900 yuan / ton. Zhejiang Petrochemical phenol increased by 200 to 9000 yuan / ton. Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II 650000 tons / year failed to restart after shutdown yesterday, and the time is to be determined.

Although the price adjustment of some other factories has not been released, the market situation has completely shown that it continues to rise today. So far, the negotiated price in the East China market has pushed up to 9300 yuan / ton. However, it is understood that the inquiry of downstream enterprises has increased, but there are few transactions, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is heavy, which still needs time to digest. The offer of the shipper is high, and the on-site trading is quiet. Continue to pay attention to on-site procurement and raw material side fluctuations.

This week, the domestic methanol market was depressed and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 11 to 18, the average price of domestic methanol market fell from 2630 yuan / ton to 2560 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 2.66% during the cycle, and the price fell by 5.62% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.59%.

As of the close of July 118, methanol rose sharply in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Ma2209 contract opened at 2324 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2398 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2303 yuan / ton. It closed at 2394 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, up 93 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract position was 1123400 hands, down 93400 hands from the previous trading day.

As of July 18, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2330-2370 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2630-2640 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, 2400-2450 yuan / ton, cash exchange nearby

Two lakes region, Negotiation reference: about 2380-2430 yuan / ton

Anhui region, Transaction range refers to 2480-2550 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province, The shipping price is 2500 yuan / ton

The price of products in the methanol industrial chain fell steadily, the price of natural gas in the upstream of methanol was stable, the price of coal fell narrowly, and the cost support of methanol weakened; Among downstream products, Shandong methane chloride price fell the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong fell the most.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on July 15, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $360.00-361.00 / ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 100.00-100.50 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 344.50-345.00 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia ., 360.00-361.00 USD / ton, – 1 USD / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 100.00-100.50 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam ., 344.50-345.00 euros / ton, – 1 euro / ton

The production cost of methanol may be weakened, the supply of methanol will not be reduced, and the downstream rigid demand will prevail. Methanol analysts at business club predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market may still decline at a low level.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on July 15:

Qingdao refinery quoted 8300 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery quoted 8150 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan / ton, and Yangba quoted 7900 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8300 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8100 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the market expressed doubts about the capacity of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase production, mainly because of its limited space for residual capacity; In addition, Saudi Arabia said it would not immediately increase oil production, and the tight supply is expected to boost oil prices.

Today, Sinopec South China reduced the price of mixed xylene by 200 yuan / ton; Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of mixed xylene by 100 yuan / ton.

Crude oil rebounded on Friday, while mixed xylene in the external market fell. Crude oil rose today, driving the focus of the spot market to rise slightly, but the actual market transactions were limited.

According to the data of business agency, on July 15, the average p value of oil glycol was 4516.67 yuan / ton, down 91.66 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, down 1.99% year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, as of July 14, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1.178 million tons, a decrease of 26800 tons, or 2.22%, compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 3200 tons, or 0.27%, compared with this Monday.

On the upstream side, investors are concerned about the prospect of a substantial interest rate hike in the United States later this month, which will curb inflation and weaken crude oil demand. During the week, crude oil prices showed a downward trend as a whole, except for the technical rebound on Wednesday. The naphtha cracking ethylene plant continued to suffer losses, the producers’ enthusiasm for production was reduced, and they intended to limit production and protect prices. Ethylene was expected to bottom out. MEG external market fell back in the afternoon, and the negotiated price was around us $517 / ton. During the week, the operating rate of MEG unit rose slightly, and the port inventory was slightly removed from the warehouse, but the overall level remained high and fluctuated, and the process of removing the warehouse was slow. The production and sales of downstream polyester have not substantially improved, and it is difficult to be bullish on the demand side in the short term.

Prediction: weak operation.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of July 14, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with July 10 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8316 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.60%, and compared with July 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8233 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.40%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that this week (7.11-7.14), the domestic n-propanol market first rose in consumption and then fell slightly, and the market range fluctuated slightly. On July 11 at the beginning of the week, the market situation of n-propanol in Shandong Province rose slightly, and some n-propanol suppliers increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-300 yuan / ton. Then the market was relatively stable and operated for two days. On the 13th, the market situation of n-propanol fell violently. Affected by the price adjustment of large manufacturers, the market situation adjusted downward with large manufacturers, with a reduction range of about 200-300 yuan / ton. As of July 14, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7200-8000 yuan tons, with an amplitude of 0.6% compared with that at the beginning of the week. Dealers around the country still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region. The actual order negotiation is the main thing, and we will wait and see the changes in raw material prices and shipments in the future.

Forecast of future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol market mainly continues to be just for purchasing. The trading atmosphere on the floor is mild, and the supply side changes little. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be mainly stable and small, and the consolidation operation will be the main. Specifically, we need to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, since July, the terminal demand has weakened, and the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen endlessly, with a decline of more than 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan / ton. On July 13, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 893 yuan / ton, down 5.63%.

The demand turns weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market declines

Since July, the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen endlessly, falling for more than ten days, and the mainstream quotation has fallen below 900 yuan / ton. The main reason is the sluggish terminal demand, the decline in market trading volume and the decline in manufacturer quotations. As of July 13, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 893 yuan / ton, a decrease of more than 5%. Terminal demand is poor, hydrogen peroxide supply is loose, and the market is all the way down.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst at business club, believes that terminal demand continues to weaken, and the price of hydrogen peroxide will continue to consolidate in the future.

Price dynamics: on July 12, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 9150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical offered 9150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical offered 9300 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 9300 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9300 yuan / ton;

Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 9300 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9000 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, based on the fact that the tight supply situation is difficult to ease, the oil price has been supported, but the expected risk of future demand cooling remains, and the high oil price is deadlocked.

Today, Jingbo Petrochemical’s pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, and Dongming Petrochemical’s pure benzene was reduced by 100 yuan / ton.

Crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range yesterday, and the external market in Asia was closed, and there was no guidance on the external news. The supply of pure benzene is tight, domestic trade shipments are reduced, and the port destocks. The spot market negotiation is general, and the price is sideways. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9000-9300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners rose this week. On July 10, the average market price in Shandong was 4588.25 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from 4495.75 yuan / ton on July 4.

On July 10, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 356.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.68% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 433.52% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries rose as a whole, the inventory of refineries was low, the shipment was good, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has fallen. Affected by high inflation and interest rate hike, the risk of economic recession will put pressure on oil prices. The game point of the future market is the supply shortage caused by geography and the economic recession risk that may be derived from the Fed’s interest rate hike. Taking into consideration, under the premise of tight supply and demand, the driving force of sharp decline is not very strong, but the oil market may intensify the shock in the future, the amplitude will increase, and the market risk will also increase.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon continues to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to decline, and as of July 10, the price was 18490.00 yuan / ton.

Analysts of petroleum coke of business agency believe that: international crude oil fell this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; However, the inventory of local refining enterprises was low, the shipment of petroleum coke was good, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the inventory increased at the weekend. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

Spot price: this week (7.4-7.8)), the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a unilateral downward trend. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 8526 yuan / ton on July 8, down 2.10% from the beginning of the week and up 17.5% from the same period last year.

Futures market: this week, the main force of short fiber futures showed a volatile downward trend. The main contract of staple fiber pf futures closed at 7676 on Friday, down 1.41% from the closing price of last week. The settlement price is 7676 yuan. This week, the main force of PTA futures of domestic staple fiber upstream raw material fell 1.88% to close at 6168, and the main force of ethylene glycol futures rose 2.92% to close at 4474.

Influencing factors: 1 This week, the international crude oil price showed a trend of shock and sharp decline. Concerns that the global economic recession may curb fuel demand exceeded fears of supply disruptions, and international oil prices extended their decline this week. This week, USOC fell nearly 6% and closed near $102 a barrel on Friday (as of 17:30 Beijing time). 2. PTA spot tightness eased this week, downstream demand was weak, and both upstream PX and crude oil fell, dragging down PTA prices. 3. Ethylene glycol price rebounded weakly after continuous decline this week. Recently, the supply of ethylene glycol has contracted under the continuous loss, and many units have announced maintenance or production conversion plans, and the supply and demand pattern has eased periodically. 4. This week, polyester staple fiber continued to break down after briefly stabilizing in the early stage. In addition to the decline of upstream crude oil and PTA prices and the weakening of cost support, the supply is expected to increase this month, and the demand for the traditional off-season start-up of downstream mills and weaving mills is also weakening.

Future forecast: under the expectation of global economic recession, the short-term oil price may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. The United States is discussing the abolition of tariffs on China, and downstream demand may be expected to pick up. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will be weak and stable after continuous decline. Pay attention to the changes in raw material prices, the adjustment of U.S. tariff policies, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the epidemic situation.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate was in a stable state this week. On July 7, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on July 3, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton). On July 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on July 3, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton).

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate stabilized this week, and most market transactions were long orders. In terms of supply, due to the arrival of summer, the production capacity of salt lake is stable, while other new production lines are also in a climbing state, and the market lithium carbonate production is stable and rising. At present, the price of lithium carbonate is very high, which makes the downstream demand mainly focus on rigid demand procurement, and the atmosphere of stocking is not increased, so the price of lithium carbonate runs smoothly.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable. At present, the price of lithium hydroxide is still at a high level, and the transaction is mainly for rigid purchase. The willingness of downstream manufacturers to stock goods at a high price is not strong. There is no obvious increase in domestic orders of ternary high nickel materials, and the recovery speed is still slow. The overall purchase price is mainly to maintain stability.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is running smoothly. Recently, the price of iron phosphate has generally declined, and the price of lithium salt has stabilized, driving the cost of lithium iron down slightly. In July, the orders were generally better, and the inquiry frequency of downstream enterprises increased, but the price game between the two sides continued, and the price temporarily stabilized.

The lithium carbonate analyst of business club believes that although the price of lithium carbonate has stabilized at present, the price is still at a high level, and the acceptance of high price lithium carbonate in the downstream market is not good. The two sides are still in the game, and it is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate may continue to maintain stability.