Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver in the early trading on August 3 was 4361.67 yuan / kg, down 1.60% from the average price of 4432.677 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 8.56%.

On August 3, the spot market price of gold was 385.53 yuan / g, up 0.94% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.53%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Aftermarket forecast

Influenced by the geopolitical factors between China and the United States, the uncertainty caused by the early visit of US House Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan triggered a rise in risk aversion.

After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan became an established fact, the price of precious metals fell. After the price of precious metals stagnated, it is likely to return to the fundamentals of the interest rate hike environment in the later stage.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

In terms of factories, Sinopec East China factory increased by 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with the implementation of 9300 yuan / ton; Today’s opening, Lihua yiweiyuan increased by 100 yuan / ton, and 9400 yuan / ton was implemented, which shows that the atmosphere in the floor is high.

In terms of market, the national mainstream market rose 150-220 yuan / ton yesterday, of which the market in East China rose to 9400 yuan / ton.

The reasons are as follows: on the one hand, the port inventory fell at the beginning of the week, about 25000 tons, which is relatively low; on the other hand, the maintenance plan of phenol ketone plant increased in August, and the contract volume decreased. Therefore, the traders on the floor were positive, the offer pushed up, the low price did not go out, and the inquiries of intermediate and terminal traders increased, but the transactions on the floor were general.

At present, the tightening of phenol spot and expected supply is a positive support for the market. The business agency expects the negotiated price in East China to remain at 9400 yuan / ton, and the focus of the phenol Market is strong.

Price dynamics: on August 1, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 8650 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 8650 yuan / ton, Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 8650 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8650 yuan / ton;

Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 8650 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical offers 8850 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 8850 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8853 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market focus turned to the opec+ meeting, and there were doubts about opec+’s ability to increase production. The expected tightening of oil supply boosted oil prices.

Today, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical pure benzene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton.

At the end of the month, the filling of empty space in the downstream ends, and the demand for pure benzene weakens; In addition, the market’s expectations for August are weak, and the price of pure benzene may continue to decline. Today, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 8650 yuan / ton. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 8650-8950 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the domestic spandex market price maintained a downward trend from July 25 to 29 this week, with a weekly decrease of 3.16% and a year-on-year decrease of 54.23%. Some spandex manufacturers reduced production to 72%, but the market supply is still sufficient.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D .,30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 41000-45000, 36000-40000, 34000-38000

Shandong, 42000-46000, 37000-4000, 35000-38000

Fujian, 42000-45000, 37000-40000, 36000-38000

Jiangsu, 41000-45000, 36000-40000, 34000-38000

Raw material pure MDI market fell, demand was weak, traders sold goods at a profit, and the focus of market mainstream negotiation fell. As of July 27, the mainstream negotiation in the market was 20000-20500 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels. The market price of ptme was weak, and the decline in cost slowed down slightly, but the price reduction of downstream spandex continued. The market quotation of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) was 28000-30000 yuan / ton, and the industry construction fell to 5.6%.

At present, the textile industry is in the off-season, coupled with the sound of film restrictions, the starting level of round knitting and yarn wrapping in Xiaoshao, Zhejiang Province is maintained at 30-50%; The operating level of the yarn wrapping Market in Jiangsu remains at 40-50%; Lace and warp knitting in Fujian are started in 50-60%; In Guangdong, the start-up of round knitting machine and yarn wrapping is slightly low, and the start-up of warp knitting field is acceptable, and the overall start-up remains at 30-60%.

The demand of downstream end textile enterprises is light. At present, the textile industry is in the off-season, and the high-temperature power consumption in the south is at a peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power rationing notices. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. Follow up on demand, demand has not recovered, and continues to decline.

Business analysts believe that the current textile industry has obvious characteristics in the off-season, and the demand side remains weak. The cost side support is also weak. The overall spandex market has strong negative sentiment, and all parties are mainly on the sidelines. It is expected that the short-term spandex market will maintain a downward trend.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, the overall PC market fell in July, and the drop in spot prices of various brands is still not small. As of July 28, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 16583.33 yuan / ton, up or down -6.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, in early July, bisphenol a market fell below the new low in two years, and there was little demand in the market. The industry chain is difficult to be positive, the terminal support is difficult, and the demand is weak. After a long period of sharp decline, the number of downstream inquiry enterprises increased in the second half of the month, and the market attention increased. With the consumption of factory inventory, the price of bisphenol A was supported and stopped falling. The short-term market is stable, but the upside is also lack of positive support.

In July, the upstream bisphenol a market bottomed out and leveled off after a narrow rebound, and the PC cost side support did not weaken further. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises is generally sideways, and the load increases after the maintenance of some production lines in the early stage. The inventory position of the industry is high, and the pressure on the PC supply side is still large. Previously, the far upstream international crude oil fluctuated violently due to the impact of macro inflation factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, which weakened the far-end support of PC. Downstream demand is still in the off-season market, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, but the buyer’s mentality has changed as the PC fell below the historical low, and bargain hunting on the floor digested some low-end offers. Market transactions are picking up, but the wait-and-see atmosphere on the demand side is still heavy, and business confidence is not strong.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: in July, the decline in the domestic PC market gradually narrowed, the upstream bisphenol a market stopped falling, and the cost side did not have a strong support effect on PC. On the supply side, there are abundant goods on the floor, high inventories, bargain hunting on the demand side, and the overall improvement is limited. In the later stage, the supply of upstream bisphenol A and PC is expected to increase at the same time, and it is expected that the spot price may continue to maintain a weak market in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 27, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16775.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the price fluctuation range was small, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, the overall PMMA market price remained stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced.

This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA is 16775.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is mainly stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively ship and give up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA remains unchanged. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and just need to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on July 27, the rubber and plastic index was 715 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.55% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 35.42% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of business news agency believe that PMMA prices are expected to run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 26, 2022, the market price reference of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas was 20100 yuan / ton, which was 420 yuan / ton higher than the price on July 1, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price 19680 yuan / ton), or 2.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since July (7.1-7.26), domestic organosilicon DMC has shown an overall upward trend. In the first ten days of July, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was steadily rising, and major manufacturers in Shandong and leading enterprises in East China raised the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC one after another. As of July 15, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price was around 20600-21000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 500-1000 yuan / ton in the first ten days of July, with a half month increase of 6.1%.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in late July, the domestic metal silicon price was mainly stable. The silicon plant had a strong willingness to stabilize the price due to cost support, and the market performance was relatively strong, but the demand was still relatively flat, and the wait-and-see mood was relatively strong. As of July 26, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of 441# metal silicon in the domestic market was 18120 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week.

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the downstream demand of organosilicon DMC is cautious, and the purchase is calm. The factory actively receives orders in August. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mostly weak, and the consolidation operation is the main. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

1、 Summary of mixed xylene prices on July 22:

Qingdao refinery quoted 8300 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery quoted 8150 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8100 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8200 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8300 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the EU adjusted its sanctions against Russia, which will allow Russian state-owned companies to ship oil to third countries. The tight supply is expected to ease slightly, and the oil price fell.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical’s mixed xylene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton.

Crude oil fell for three consecutive days, and the cost side support was loose. It is reported that Fuhai Petrochemical is about to sell xylene, and the Shandong market is under pressure.

According to the data of business news agency, on July 22, the average p value of oil glycol was 4533.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.66 yuan / ton over the previous statistical cycle, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year.

Higher than expected interest rate hikes and concerns about the economic downturn have pushed commodity futures downward, and energy, chemicals, metals, precious metals and agricultural products have been impacted to varying degrees.

In the upstream, the international crude oil futures price fell, and the trading on the floor was relatively quiet. Insiders tried to balance the weak energy demand and the tight supply caused by the reduction of Russian oil after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The domestic epidemic is sporadic, and the sealing and control policy may aggravate the low profit situation in the downstream, which continues to pose pressure on the demand side of naphtha. At present, the naphtha ethylene cracking unit continues to suffer losses, and the production enterprises intend to reduce the negative insurance price.

MEG external market is still weak today, and the negotiated price is around $520 / ton. The depressed market price and continuous losses made the MEG unit operating rate continue to fall, and the process of port destocking slowed down. As of July 21, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1573 million tons, a decrease of 20700 tons or 1.76% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 0600 tons or 0.05% compared with this Monday. Downstream polyester further reduced production, terminal orders have always been weak and there are cumulative expectations, and the margin of supply and demand has not been substantially improved.

Prediction: the fundamental performance is still weak, and the short-term low range fluctuates.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic spandex market has maintained a downward trend since July. As of July 21, the average market price of 40d specification was 38000 yuan / ton, down 9.95% from the beginning of the month and 51.41% year-on-year.

At present, 77% of the spandex industry has started, and some manufacturers have reduced their production, but the supply of goods is sufficient. Downstream end customers continue to buy on demand and watch carefully.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D ., 30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 42000-48000., 37000-42000., 35000-39000

Shandong, 43000-48000., 38000-42000., 36000-39000

Fujian, 43000-48000., 38000-42000., 36000-39000

Jiangsu, 42000-48000., 37000-42000., 35000-39000

Recently, the market price of PTMEG has been weak, and some devices have fallen to 64% under the pressure of inventory. BDO on the cost side continued to decline, and the downstream spandex entered the market to depress the price. The transaction atmosphere was light. The current market quotation of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) was 28000-30000 yuan / ton. The market focus of pure MDI is weak, and the market reference price is 21500-21800 yuan / ton. Telegraphic transfer can be carried out in barrels.

The trading atmosphere in the downstream end market is general, and the overall market is difficult to be optimistic. The current off-season characteristics are obvious, with 30-40% of the round machine industry and 60% of the warp knitting industry. Lack of confidence in the future market, and the mood of taking goods weakened.

Business analysts believe that at present, the spandex market remains weak, the supporting role of the cost side is general, the downstream terminals follow up on demand, and the market turnover is light. It is expected that the spandex market will maintain a downward trend in the short term.