This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7312.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 6.17% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 12th last weekend, which was 6887.50 yuan/ton. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable at a low level, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The Spring Festival stocking has ended, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased. The price of ortho benzene is strong and temporarily stable, the cost of raw materials is stabilizing, and the driving force for the price increase of phthalic anhydride still exists.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with approximately 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory levels, resulting in tight supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw materials such as benzene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of ortho xylene was 7200 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.78% compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 12th last week, which was 6680 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. Industrial naphthalene prices are consolidating strongly, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is rising. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials still exists.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the DOP price was 8613.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.53% compared to the DOP price of 8401.25 yuan/ton on January 13th. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride is in urgent need of procurement, and the replenishment of plasticizers by manufacturers during the Spring Festival has ended. The support for phthalic anhydride demand still exists.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fluctuated and risen, while the price of industrial naphthalene has remained strong and consolidated. The cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, and there is a strong driving force for the increase in phthalic anhydride costs; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, and with the end of Spring Festival stocking, the support for phthalic anhydride demand has weakened. Overall, cost support still exists, downstream demand has weakened, and the future phthalic anhydride market has slightly fallen from its high level.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11866/ton, with a price increase of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market transactions are positive, and industry insiders are mostly optimistic, focusing on the market transaction situation.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The market for fruit shell charcoal is stable, and there is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials. The industry should pay more attention to this.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is improving, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market showed a stable trend this week. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remains stable this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite still provides some support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3603.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (3622.50 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: As the end of the year approaches, refrigerant quotas are depleted, inventory remains low, but there is still a demand for stocking downstream, and market prices continue to remain firm.

Market forecast: High support from the raw material side, insufficient profit margin in the hydrofluoric acid industry, low downstream inventory, and still high and firm quotations will provide favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. Overall, the hydrofluoric acid market will mainly maintain its current situation next week, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the price of isooctanol was 7633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.78% compared to the price of 7933.33 yuan/ton on January 6th. The construction of new equipment has been stable. This week, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises started at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory ended, and the demand for isooctanol decreased. The increase in isooctanol supply and demand decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week.

This week, the supply of isooctanol increased and the demand decreased

This week, isooctanol enterprises started operating at a high level, coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, resulting in an increase in isooctanol supply. After the holiday, downstream manufacturers have completed their inventory replenishment, resulting in a decrease in demand for isooctanol and an increase in downward pressure on its price.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.32% compared to the DOP price of 8513.75 yuan/ton on January 6th. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, plasticizer enterprises are actively operating, downstream plasticizer enterprises have high operating rates, and plasticizer supply is sufficient. After the end of the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory has ended, and the demand for plasticizers has slightly fallen, while the support for the demand for raw material isooctanol has weakened.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, this week’s high equipment start-up of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new capacity, has eased the supply shortage of isooctanol and increased its supply; High profits, active downstream production, and the end of post holiday inventory replenishment have weakened the support for isooctanol demand. In the future, the supply shortage of isooctanol has been alleviated, and stocking up before the Spring Festival has provided strong demand support. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will consolidate strongly in the future.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3603.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3603.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 5.03%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the shortage of supply combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature, the supply of fluorite has decreased. This week, the fluorite.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market still acceptable

This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In January, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry has experienced a decline in production, coupled with low prices of hydrofluoric acid, overall demand is not expected to improve. Overall, the domestic fluorite market may be mainly volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to operate under pressure at the beginning of the 25th year, with weak fluctuations. As of January 7th, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 76000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% from the same period last month at 78400 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 78600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the same period last month at 81200 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

From the perspective of new energy vehicles, January is the traditional off-season in China, and there is a reduction in power batteries. However, due to the expectation of overseas policies, the demand for exports is expected to be strong, and the overall reduction on the demand side will be better than the same period in previous years.

In December, the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate were strong, and the demand for ternary materials remained stable. There is an expectation of a decrease in downstream demand after January 2025. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is about 65%, and the operating rate of ternary materials is about 44%.

Supply side:

Due to the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, domestic mines are expected to reduce production on the supply side. Based on intelligence and shipping data from Argentina, the import volume is expected to remain balanced.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, there are maintenance plans in the upstream of lithium carbonate, coupled with a strong pre holiday stocking mentality and better than expected production scheduling in the downstream. In the short term, it may experience strong fluctuations, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 30 to January 6, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6110 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 6210 yuan/ton on January 6th. This week, there were slight regional differences in the performance of the xylene market, with insufficient downstream demand in Shandong region and most of the listed prices of local refineries being lowered. Huaben and South China regions have tight inventories, and the rise in crude oil prices has driven up the spot market.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 6th, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6350 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 6th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7100 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on December 30th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 3rd, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 819-821 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to December 30th.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to perform well in the near future, and it is anticipated that cost support will remain strong in the future. On the supply side, the inventory in Shandong region has been running at a low level recently, with good support from the supply side. Demand is facing the upcoming holiday, and downstream demand expectations are gradually weakening, providing weak support for the market. Overall, the market demand is relatively weak, and it is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash decreased narrowly in late December. As of December 31, the average market price of soda ash was 1528 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the price of 1538 yuan/ton on December 21, a decrease of 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

The soda ash market was weakly consolidating in late December. The early stage equipment runs smoothly, the soda ash manufacturer actively ships, the downstream follows up as needed, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable, the supply and demand on site are relatively balanced, and the soda ash price runs steadily; In the later stage, the load of soda ash plants in some regions of China increased, and the supply of soda ash in the region increased. The mentality of operators weakened, and at the same time, the downstream market situation decreased, which had a negative impact on the upstream market. As a result, the market price of soda ash slightly fell.

As of December 31st, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 30 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market first rose and then fell. From December 21st to 31st, the price of glass increased from 16.40 yuan/square meter to 16.45 yuan/square meter, and then fell back to 16.40 yuan/square meter. The operating rate of the glass market did not change much in the latter half of the year, and downstream entry enthusiasm was not high. Follow up was mainly based on demand, and overall shipments from manufacturers were limited. Market destocking was poor, and glass prices fluctuated slightly.

Future forecast: Currently, the inventory level in the domestic soda ash market is high, and spot soda ash factories are actively shipping. The sales pressure on enterprises still exists, and the downstream glass market demand is average, with more emphasis on on-demand replenishment. This has limited support for the soda ash market, and there is a game of supply and demand in the market. In the short term, soda ash will operate weakly and steadily. Specific attention should be paid to following up on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly increased recently (12.24-12.31). As of December 31, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16890 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72% from 16604 yuan/ton on December 24. Recently, raw material prices have fluctuated slightly at high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly increased; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, while the Shanghai rubber market has risen this week, driving the natural rubber spot market slightly higher.

December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. However, the recent rainstorm has once again hit the important rubber planting areas in southern Thailand, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is high, driving the domestic price of natural rubber raw materials to remain firm; As of December 31st, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas is around 17200 yuan/ton, running at a high level.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 29, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477600 tons, an increase of 7600 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of December 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

Future forecast: The supply of raw materials at home and abroad is gradually rising in the current season, but the short-term rainstorm impacts the main production areas of Thailand, supporting the price of raw materials; The tire market provides strong support for natural rubber demand; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate within a certain range in the short term.

Analysis: This week (12.23-27), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.25%. The main reason is that the contradiction of oversupply is difficult to alleviate, and the supply pressure has increased. The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the poor performance of the urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2500-2600 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The market enters the traditional off-season, fertilizer procurement cools down, downstream fertilizer factory operating rates significantly decrease, industrial demand follows suit, supply is sufficient, and supply pressure may continue to increase in the later stage. But in the later stage, the market will show regional differentiation. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week. The main production areas will continue to decline, but some areas may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.