In August, the aluminum price fluctuated sideways

According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18453.33 yuan / ton, down 0.65% on a daily basis, up 0.75% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), down 13.12% from the average market price of 21240 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 23.87%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery increases by 5.75%.

Overview of recent Fundamentals

1. Supply side:

At home, the power shortage in Sichuan has eased. Except for the high load industries, the power consumption of large industries is gradually restored. Aluminum profile enterprises in the aluminum industry are promoting the resumption of production; The start-up period of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is long after power limit and shutdown. On August 29, Zhongfu industrial announced that the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Guangyuan Linfeng and Guangyuan Zhongfu involved in the shutdown will be resumed in an orderly manner from August 28, 2022. At present, other enterprises are still in the state of shutdown; Most aluminum rod enterprises are temporarily shut down due to lack of aluminum water supply, and some production capacity using waste aluminum has been restored. It is expected that the supply of aluminum bars in Sichuan market will be tight in September.

Internationally, on August 30, Alcoa announced a reduction in production, and its lista electrolytic aluminum plant in Norway will reduce production by one third due to high energy costs. The aluminum plant has a production capacity of 94000 tons / year. The production reduction will be completed within 14 days, involving a production capacity of 31000 tons / year.

2. Demand side:

Domestic aluminum downstream consumption continued to be weak, and the regional epidemic and high-temperature power limit interfered with the downstream construction, and the aluminum rod and aluminum profile plants in Sichuan were basically shut down.

3. Inventory data:

The social inventory in the mainstream areas of domestic aluminum ingots is relatively stable, at a historical low level, and has accumulated a little recently. As of August 29, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots was 686000 tons.

4. Influencing factors of policy:

The domestic LPR reduction combined with the relevant policies of real estate, the news is favorable for the construction aluminum, but the short-term impact on the downstream demand of aluminum is limited. The hawkish probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September has increased, the European economy has been hit hard by energy, and the manufacturing PMI index of Germany and France in August continues to be lower than the 50th percentile, which is not optimistic. Macro factors suppress international bulk prices.

Future market forecast

On the whole, overseas energy is still tight, Europe may face a more severe production reduction crisis, and some electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still expected to be reduced. On the domestic side, the power restriction is expected to be eased and the domestic supply is expected to be improved, but the uncertainty is still strong. In the short term, the aluminum price is mainly fluctuated in a wide range, with a range of 18000-19000 yuan / ton. In the future, attention will be paid to the downstream consumption and social inventory.

In August, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell

According to the data of the business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell in August, and the price of aluminum fluoride declined. As of August 30, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10650 yuan / ton, down 2.74% from 10950 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The demand for aluminum fluoride declined, and the market of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell.

High temperature power limited electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to decline

The office of emergency command leading group for energy supply guarantee of Sichuan Province issued a notice that in order to spare no effort to ensure safety, people’s livelihood and key points, Sichuan Province extended the period of industrial power limitation and shutdown to 24:00 on August 25. Affected by this, the production reduction scope of Sichuan electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been expanded comprehensively, and the operation capacity of Sichuan electrolytic aluminum is facing the risk of full shutdown, and the load reduction production in Chongqing is also affected. The start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises declined, the demand for aluminum fluoride declined, and the pressure of aluminum fluoride decline increased.

In August, the price of raw materials was relatively stable

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of fluorite rose slightly in August, with an increase of 1.92%; The price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, with a decrease of 0.09%. The raw material market fluctuated and adjusted slightly, the overall cost of aluminum fluoride was relatively stable, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained and the downward pressure weakened.

Adjustment of downstream cryolite price shock

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of cryolite was adjusted in August, and the cryolite market was consolidated. As of August 30, the price of cryolite was 7675 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from 7650 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of cryolite fluctuated and adjusted, the demand for cryolite was consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable.

In August, the market of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose in August, and the price of electrolytic aluminum rose. As of August 30, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18573.33 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from 18316.67 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. Under the influence of power limitation, the start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride decreased.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency, in August, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials was relatively stable, the supply of aluminum fluoride was relatively stable, and the high-temperature power limit led to the decline in the start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the decline in the demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, with the decrease of temperature and the increase of precipitation, the power restriction will be eased. It may take a long time for the power restriction to be fully lifted. In the short term, the demand for aluminum fluoride will be low. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will be stable in the short term, and there will be a certain increase in the future.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride continued to rise this week. As of August 28, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7680.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.92% over the price of 7320.00 yuan / ton on August 22, and an increase of 0.79% over the same period of last month.

This week, the domestic benzoic maleic anhydride market was shut down. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin resin market started at a low level, and the demand was mainly rigid. As of December 28, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7600 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 7700 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 8000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 8000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene fluctuated this week. On August 28, the average price of pure benzene was 7608.83 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the average price of pure benzene was 7592.17 yuan / ton, up 0.22%. The delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month was basically completed, and the downstream demand was not improved well. The price of pure benzene refined in Shandong Province fell by a wide margin at the weekend. This week, the price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased slightly, reaching 7766.67 yuan / ton on August 28 and 7700.00 yuan / ton on August 22, with a price increase of 0.87%. As for n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5700 yuan / ton as of August 28.

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of business club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is in serious deficit at present, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation is small. The recent rise in the n-butane oxidation process is mainly due to the concentrated delivery of goods by downstream and merchants, and the tight delivery of the factory. At present, the supply of main production areas continues to increase, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. It was 2.94% higher than that at the beginning of the month, which was 6.25% lower than that at the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24333.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. Compared with the price of 22500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, it increased by 8.15%, and increased by 9.77% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall price of refrigerant R22 kept steady, and the price offered by enterprises remained stable. The price of raw material chloroform rebounded in the whole month, the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be weak and stable, and the raw material cost rose slightly. In addition, the price of R22 market in the future will be supported to a certain extent.

This week, the overall market price of R134a kept steady. Since August, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has been generally weak and stable, and the price of trichloroethylene has continued to rise. In addition, the production lines in some regions have been shut down for maintenance. The market supply of R134a has decreased slightly. Meanwhile, summer is the traditional peak season for refrigerant demand, and the cost and demand will further support the price of R134a in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business club, the enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the domestic R22 and R134a prices are expected to have some room for recovery in the short term under the support of the continuous high raw material cost and demand

On August 25, the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on August 25, the aluminum fluoride market was weak and temporarily stable, and the aluminum fluoride price was weak and temporarily stable. As of August 25, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on August 24 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 2.74% compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on August 1 at the beginning of the month, which was 10950 yuan / ton.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, the price of fluorite is temporarily stable, and the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable; Due to high temperature and drought, Sichuan limited power, electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to decline, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream fluctuated and increased, the price of cryolite was temporarily stable, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was low. The overall downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Future forecast

The cost is temporarily stable and the demand drops. The downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increases and the upward momentum remains. In the future, the market of aluminum fluoride tends to be weak and stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 24, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is referenced at 7133 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 7033 yuan / ton), the price is increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.42%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that from August to August (8.1-8.24), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole has been rising first and then falling. In the first ten days of August, the inventory of dimethyl carbonate in the market was low, and the supply side supported the market market. As of August 14, the factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was 7566 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 7% in half a month. At the end of August, the trading volume of dimethyl carbonate in the market turned weak, the trading atmosphere was general, and under the influence of insufficient demand support, the market of dimethyl carbonate began to move downward gradually on the 15th, and some factories began to sell goods at a profit. As of August 24, the factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 6400-7000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.42% in the month. At present, the atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market is still light, and the market consolidation is the main operation.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, from August to August (8.1-8.24), the domestic propylene oxide market has been in a volatile operation as a whole. According to the data of the business agency, the reference price of propylene oxide was 8933.33 yuan / ton on August 23, a decrease of 0.37% compared with that on August 1 (8966.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market is general, and the market is relatively stable. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

The phenol offers in the national markets today are as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 9150-9200, 50-100

Shandong Province, 9350, 50

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 9300, 30

South China, 9250-9300, 50

Today, the phenol Market in the mainstream regions of China has different rising trends. Although it is still mainly driven up, the increase is not obvious. In East China, the overall upward trend is 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation is close to 9200 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the supply pressure is not great. At present, the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry is around 80%, which is lower than that of the previous August. The supply side is reduced. The import source is relatively stable and the supply is flat. On the other hand, as the average contract price is on the high side near the end of the month, the holders have little intention to sell low. In addition, although the carriers are in the mood of pushing up, the terminal just needs to participate in replenishment, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited. In this case, the market shows a slight upward trend and the increase is limited.

Near the end of the month, the business agency expects that the market will continue to operate strongly tomorrow, and the mainstream reference in East China is 9250 yuan / ton.

1、 Price data

As of August 21, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 8093.33 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from 8076.67 yuan / ton on August 15. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100 yuan / ton.

As of August 21, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7967.50 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from 7957.50 yuan / ton on August 15. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 8000 yuan / ton.

On August 21, the naphtha commodity index was 99.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 17.88% from the highest point 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle and up 136.48% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the price continued to rise due to the high price of gasoline, diesel and reforming products; In the second half of the week, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, and the market price of naphtha fell.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data are generally weak, which once again raises the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which makes the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, toluene rose slightly this week. On August 12, the price was 7460 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the price was 7480 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.27% over last week. This week, the price of mixed xylene was stable and small. On August 12, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business news agency, the international crude oil price fluctuated this week, the naphtha market had a strong wait-and-see attitude, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, the naphtha market price fell, the terminal demand was not significantly favorable, and the market was cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refined in the near future will be mainly processed.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6570 yuan / ton last Friday and 6325 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 3.73% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC decreased. At present, the spot market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods is not high. This week, the futures prices showed a downward trend of increasing positions as a whole. In addition, the real estate data continued to perform poorly, the market confidence was obviously insufficient, the market situation weakened, and the sales of carriers were under pressure. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 5950-6580 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, on August 19, the domestic SC crude oil futures rose, and the international oil price rebounded for two consecutive trading days. On Thursday, Brent crude oil rose by more than 3%, and SC crude oil rose in the internal market. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by 3.40% to close at 692.7 yuan. The US economic data showed strong performance. Last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased to 250000, the first drop in three weeks, indicating that the demand for labor is still healthy. In addition, the commercial crude oil inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was good, and the crude oil and gasoline inventories fell sharply more than expected. The fuel demand was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession. Future forecast: according to the crude oil analysts of business club, in the short term, the oil price may also be affected by sudden factors in addition to the basic factors. The hurricane climate in North America is approaching. According to the judgment of previous years, it may damage the refinery facilities along the Gulf of Mexico, which may help the oil price rebound. In addition, in the medium term, it may be affected by the soaring natural gas price in Europe, which will drive the oil price higher. In the long run, the risk of economic recession and epidemic situation are still the biggest constraints on oil prices, and the risk of far-end oil prices is high.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide last Friday was 4050 yuan / ton, and the average price of this Friday was 3766.67 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 7% during the week. This week, the factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable, and the prices of individual enterprises increased. The price of blue carbon in the upstream is low, and the cost is generally supported. The price of PVC in the downstream decreases slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakens.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general. The performance of real estate data is poor, and the downstream enterprises mostly wait and see. The trading is not warm and the market trading atmosphere is general. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still be shaken and sorted out. We will pay close attention to the changes in the news.

Price trend

According to the data of the business community’s bulk list, this week the POM market was adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the spot prices of various brands were mainly stable. As of August 18, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding grade sample enterprises of business community was about 18733.33 yuan / ton, up or down + 1.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, this week, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong was weak and consolidated, and the market was basically stable. The domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level, and the transaction was general. The traders just needed to replenish, and their mood was poor. The cost support is general, the downstream operating rate has not been greatly improved, the just needed purchase is maintained, the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments, and the market is weak. The demand of wood panel factory is weak, and the price of formaldehyde is expected to fall slightly.

The upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost side is generally supported. In terms of industrial load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently. This week, Yuntianhua has a production line parking, but 80% of the industry’s operating rate leads to high supply, and the competition in the field is strong. The inventory of manufacturers and midstream is high, and the off-season market continues. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The consumption of POM continues to lag. The main support point of spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing operations, mainly taking small orders and resisting high-priced goods sources, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the offer of the merchants is stable but drops secretly. The offer mainly follows the enterprise or follows the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is stable but weak this week, the upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost is generally supported. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of supply side is poor. However, the consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment. It is expected that the price of POM will fall in the short term due to the continuous contradiction between supply and demand.