Since September, the domestic liquid ammonia market has ended the bottom consolidation of nearly two months, and a perfect rebound has emerged in the middle and early days. Shandong, Hebei, Lianghu and other major production areas saw an increase of 600-800 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 20, the percentage increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province since September has reached 15.09%, and the current mainstream quotation range is 4200-4400 yuan/ton. The sharp increase in the market is mainly related to the tension between supply and demand, as well as the cost positive impact of the high upstream coal and natural gas prices.

Supply side: tightening supply in main production areas

On the supply side, since the end of August, the operating rate of main liquid ammonia production areas has continued to decline. Fujian, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong all have large factories that have entered the maintenance period or temporarily stopped due to faults, and enterprises that have stopped in the early stage, such as Hebei Kaiyue, Shandong Luzhou and Hubei Heyuan, have been unable to resume production. During this period, the superposition of “early shutdown” and “new shutdown” devices has led to a sharp reduction in market supply. In addition, many downstream devices of co production enterprises have resumed operation, increasing self consumption and reducing the supply of goods that can be circulated to the market. The continued contraction of supply is the main reason for this upward trend.

Cost: High coal and natural gas prices and ammonia enterprises face upward pressure

The high cost is also the driving force for the rise of liquid ammonia. Since the end of August, the coal market has continued to rise. As of September 20, the steam coal has risen by nearly 15% since September, which has continuously brought profit pressure to downstream ammonia enterprises. At the same time, with the help of the tight supply and demand of liquid ammonia, the ammonia enterprises’ motivation and willingness to increase prices have been supported. However, with the national regulation of coal prices, the rise of coal has been restrained to some extent, and the profits of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other products are still within a reasonable range. The price of natural gas also rose sharply in September, which also played a cost driven role for ammonia enterprises in Southwest China. According to the monitoring of the business community, LNG rose as high as 15.89% this month.

Demand side: demand boosts market confidence

In the end, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia continues to rise. The price of urea continued to rise, and the urea rose by 7.0% in September. The number of new orders sold by many manufacturers increased, and the price of new orders kept rising. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer in autumn was followed up, and the industrial demand also improved. In addition, the export and light storage promoted the market. As of September 20, the urea market price had reached 2550-2650 yuan/ton. Relative to the supply tension, the recovery of downstream demand also forms a strong support for the market.

From the above figure, we can see that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. In September, the price difference between the two narrowed significantly, and the curve crossed at the near end. The strength of liquid ammonia compared with downstream urea also showed the tight situation at the supply side, as well as the continuous improvement of the profits of ammonia enterprises.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the current profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain are fair, and the price increase of natural gas upstream of the gas head is strong, which affects the profits of ammonia enterprises in the southwest gas head. However, the sharp rise of the liquid ammonia price has eased the pressure on the profits of ammonia enterprises. The pressure of downstream fertilizer enterprises is relatively high. The growth of urea, boric acid and other products was weaker than that of the upstream, while that of ammonium chloride (- 14.85%), ammonium nitrate (- 4.61%), diammonium phosphate (- 8.81%) and other products was weaker.

Future market forecast

The liquid ammonia analysts of the business community believe that since this week, the rising momentum of domestic ammonia enterprises has generally weakened, and the supply and demand side of the market has gradually moved towards easing. The expected resumption of production in the later period may bring some negative effects to the market, and the release of some new capacity has also increased the supply expectation. However, before the National Day holiday, the market procurement demand is still there, and the continuation of the downstream peak season effect will make ammonia enterprises continue to rise in price. Based on comprehensive consideration, it is estimated that liquid ammonia will still be subject to strong shock in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the market of hydrogen peroxide rose slightly. As of September 19, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 930 yuan/ton, 1.45% higher than that before the festival.

The hydrogen peroxide market rose slightly due to tight supply

After the Mid Autumn Festival, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in terminal printing, paper industry and other industries was stable, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to operate stably. As some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down for maintenance, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is relatively tight. This week, the hydrogen peroxide market is rising, with the mainstream quotation of about 900 yuan/ton, up more than 1%.

 
Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business community, believes that the supply is tightening, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1438 yuan/ton on September 13, and 1411 yuan/ton on September 16. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 1.85% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. Because the price of ammonium sulfate is at a high level, the downstream has a resistance to the high price of ammonium sulfate. In order to reduce inventory, enterprises have lowered prices slightly. The urea market rose this week, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market. The downstream compound fertilizer market is heating up, the demand for raw materials is increasing, and the supply and demand of ammonium sulfate in the plant are stable. As of September 16, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province was 1450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province was about 1360 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1420-1580 yuan/ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is warming up, the market turnover is good, and the purchase of ammonium sulfate is increasing. At present, wheat fertilizer is mainly sold in the compound fertilizer market. This week, the urea cost was supported well, and the agricultural demand was small, and the compound fertilizer plant actively followed up. It is expected that some regions will have limited production, and urea will rise slightly in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that the current trend of ammonium sulfate market is high and falling, and the downstream price is depressed, but the market demand is stable. The supply of ammonium sulfate was sufficient, and the manufacturer lowered the price slightly to digest the inventory. It is expected that the market price of ammonium sulfate will fall slightly in the short term.

The domestic cobalt price fell on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the cobalt price fell on September 15, and the cobalt market fell back. On September 15, the cobalt price was 345600 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from 345800 yuan/ton on the previous trading day. On September 15, the cobalt commodity index was 124.32, down 0.07 points from yesterday, down 47.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 238.91 (2018-04-15), and up 78.01% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Key points of analysis

The LME market cobalt price has stabilized, MB cobalt price has risen slightly, and the international cobalt price has risen slightly; After the end of power rationing in Sichuan Province, the cobalt salt and lithium salt industry chain enterprises started to recover, the cobalt salt price became strong and stable, the supply and demand of the new energy battery market recovered in succession, and the upward momentum of the cobalt market weakened and downward pressure remained.

Future market forecast

The supply and demand of the cobalt market recovered balance when the power limit expired, the international cobalt price rose slowly, the cobalt salt price trend became stable, the support for the early cobalt price rise was no longer, the cobalt price fell slightly, and it is expected that the future cobalt price will become stable due to shocks.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of paraformaldehyde production in Shandong was 5450 yuan/ton on September 14, and 5350 yuan/ton on September 5, up 1.87%.

Chart of market price trend of methanol polyoxymethylene

According to the monitoring data of the business community, methanol in China rose by more than 6.47% during the period from 9.14 to 9.14. Supported by the cost of methanol, polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predicted that the price might rise.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 8133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 2.05%. On September 12, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.93, which was the same as yesterday, down 62.18% from the highest point 105.58 in the cycle (September 16, 2021), and up 18.00% from the lowest point 33.84 on August 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7040.60 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7320.60 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.98%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, with the price rising from 9966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 10433.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 4.68%. Neopentyl glycol market rose slightly and downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid September may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, and cost support strengthened. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose and fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

Phenol offers in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China, 10050, 100

Shandong, 10100, 100

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain., 10050., 100

South China, 10250, 250

The domestic phenol market continues to rise, and the tight supply situation can hardly be alleviated. It is expected that the supply side of the washing tower of the phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company phase I will be tight. As shown in the above table, the major mainstream markets have pushed up one after another, the terminal inquiries are positive and the actual orders are cautious, and the acceptance of continuous increases to high prices is limited.

Average price trend of national mainstream phenol Market

DOP price fell on September 5

According to the data monitoring of business association, DOP prices fell on September 5, and DOP prices fell back. On September 5, the DOP price was 9912.50 yuan / ton, down 1.37% from the DOP price of 10050 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On September 5, the DOP commodity index was 71.52, down 0.99 points from yesterday, down 36.96% from 113.46 points (August 4, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 73.89% from 41.13 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now). Raw material prices fell, DOP costs fell, and DOP prices fell.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol fell, the price of phthalic anhydride temporarily stabilized, and the cost of DOP fell; The price of downstream plastic PVC is weak and stable, and the demand is temporarily stable; The downward pressure of plasticizers increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Future market expectations

The demand for cost reduction is temporarily stable, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the DOP price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of the business club, the domestic market of PA6 was sorted out and operated this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of September 2, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongjian 2.75-2.85 was about 13733.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 0.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the caprolactam market price is running at a high price this week, the price trend of raw material pure benzene is fluctuating, and the cost of caprolactam is generally supported. The market of downstream products is general, and the purchase of caprolactam is mainly just needed. Previously, the number of caprolactam production enterprises and equipment maintenance enterprises increased, and the decline of supply eased certain market pressure. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is high, and the cost end support of PA6 this week is OK. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants has limited changes, and generally remains at about 65%. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is average. With the production and consumption of end-users, the shipment of chips increased this week, but the improvement of the overall demand for PA6 was limited. The buyer’s stock operation just needs to maintain production, power and production restrictions in some regions have ended, and it will take some time for the operating rate of end-users and the effect of demand release to appear. The buyer still takes flexible small orders and is cautious in purchasing. The business attitude is general, and the offer is subject to the market.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 has been sorted out this week, the price of caprolactam is strong, and the cost support of PA6 is OK. Downstream enterprises just need to take goods to maintain production, and PA6 offers to stop falling sideways. It still takes time to release the demand in the traditional demand peak season, and it is expected that the PA6 market will continue to sort out.

In August, the market of nitrile rubber declined slightly and ended at the end of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 16575 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 15912 yuan / ton. The price at the end of the month was 4.00% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the month was 15762 yuan / ton. In August, the nitrile rubber industry chain was still weak: the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile declined slightly, and the cost support continued to weaken; The pressure on the supply and demand side is large, which has a certain impact on the market. As of August 31, the mainstream offer of Russian nitrile 3365 market in East China was 14800-15000 yuan / ton, the mainstream offer of shunze nitrile 3355 market was 15000-15600 yuan / ton, the mainstream offer of Lanhua nitrile 3305 market was 14800-15200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offer of Nandi nitrile 1052 market was 18500-18800 yuan / ton.

In August, the domestic nitrile rubber plant operated normally, and the supply side continued to be loose. The 100000 t / a nitrile unit of Lanzhou petrochemical works normally; The 30000 T / a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu YINGSA Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. was in normal production; The 30000 T / a nitrile rubber plant of arantai rubber has been restarted to normal operation; Zhenjiang Nandi 50000 T / a nitrile rubber plant is in normal production; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally.

In August, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 8331 yuan / ton, down 10.96% from 9356 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of August 31, the price of acrylonitrile was 8900 yuan / ton, down 7.48% from 9620 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

There is no obvious increase in the start-up of the downstream nitrile products industry, and the market transactions are mainly small orders. With the arrival of the peak season, the downstream will gradually replenish the stock in small quantities.

Future forecast: nitrile analysts of business club believe that the cost and supply and demand of nitrile rubber are still relatively weak at present, but with the arrival of the golden nine silver ten, the overall industrial chain may improve, and it is expected that the price of nitrile rubber will rise slightly in the later period.