Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the PC market generally fell in mid October, and the spot prices of various brands stabilized after falling. As of October 22, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 18400 yuan/ton, up or down by – 2.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. In addition, the industrial load has increased, and the upstream and downstream are weak and resonant. But this week, the price level has fallen to near the cost, and it is hard to lower it further. In addition, the supply of low price goods stimulated downstream replenishment, and the market momentum recovered. The spot offer bottomed out and rebounded within the week.

In the middle of October, the bisphenol A market recovered in a narrow range after falling, and the PC cost side was generally supported. In terms of industry load, Shandong PC enterprises had a certain maintenance scale this week, the industry operation rate was low, and the supply of goods on the market was tightened. The supply side support strength rose to hedge against the raw material negative, and the market improved in the second half of the week. The actual demand in the downstream is less than that in previous years. In the first half of the week, the merchants gave up their profits and took orders. The warming of the market near the weekend stimulated buyers to enter the market. However, the terminal enterprises just need to maintain production to get goods, and there are still not many actual PC orders delivered on the market.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believed that the domestic PC market stabilized after the decline in mid October, the upstream bisphenol A market fell back to a warmer level, and the cost side did not support PC well. On the supply side, the on-site supply of goods has shrunk due to the recent capacity loss, and the pressure on the supply side has eased slightly. The demand is weak, and there are scattered small orders to follow up after the price reduction. It is expected that PC spot price will recover in a narrow range in the near future.

On the 18th, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline, and the mainstream offer was 12800-13000 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. The upstream raw material phenol declined by a narrow margin, the acetone market offer was firm, and the factory raised the price by 200 yuan/ton. The two major downstream markets fell significantly, and the decline in the operating rate was negative for the raw materials, which was difficult to be positive on the demand side. The participation of middlemen significantly depressed the price. The bisphenol A market fell frequently, and it has been close to the low level in the short term. The market attention has increased. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to weaken today.

The offer of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market as of the last trading day:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 12900., – 300

Shandong, 12800., – 300

According to the data from the list of bulk commodities of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has declined recently. On the 11th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1446.67 yuan/ton, and on the 18th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1393.33 yuan/ton, down 3.69%. The current price rose by 5.56% month on month, and the current price fell by 37.14% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fallen, which can be seen from the figure above. As of October 18, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has declined, and the cost support is poor. The formaldehyde market has been affected by methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. The purchase of just needed products is maintained. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market has weakened slightly.

Upstream methanol situation: the domestic methanol market in East China has rebounded. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 3246 yuan/ton to 2812 yuan/ton from October 8 to 18. During the cycle, the price dropped by 13.37%, with a month on month increase of 1.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.87%. Before the National Day, due to the availability of goods before the festival and the tight supply and demand in some regions, the domestic methanol market price rose sharply, and the port price broke the 3000 yuan/ton mark. With the increase of arrival and inventory in some regions, as well as the consumption of pre holiday stock in downstream areas after the holiday, the methanol price market has turned “upside down”. After the festival, the domestic methanol market continued to decline unilaterally, and the quotations of manufacturers were also lowered for many times. The market atmosphere was “calm”.

This week, the methanol market failed to withstand the pressure and began to decline. The downstream panel plants are currently operating in an ordinary way. They are mostly wait-and-see attitude towards the formaldehyde market and have a strong bargaining mood. The market inventory is not well digested. The formaldehyde manufacturers adjusted their prices for shipment, and the formaldehyde market is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has declined, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants continues to be poor. Under the dual pressure, the formaldehyde market is difficult to improve greatly. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predict that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong is mainly weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 17 was 94.36, down 0.17 points from yesterday, 15.38% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% from the lowest point of August 2, 2020, 82.89. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has been basically stable since October, mainly reporting about 15471.43 yuan/ton. At present, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, have stopped production since the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements, and the industry is expected to resume production this month; At the same time, some areas have been in a state of silence due to public health incidents recently. The cost of raw materials has risen to a certain extent, and the downstream demand is general. Due to the sufficient spot inventory, the overall market of polyacrylamide is mainly stable, and some brands of a small number of enterprises have decreased slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the domestic acrylonitrile market has been strong since October. Among them, the domestic market reported 9870 yuan/ton on the first day and 10250 yuan/ton on the 17th, up only 3.85%. In terms of industry, after the festival, the supply side operating rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall starting rate of 60% to 70%. The listing price of enterprises was raised, and the business offer was slightly higher; The price of raw propylene rose slightly, while the price of ABS downstream of acrylonitrile continued to rise and the inventory declined. As for the future market, the analysis shows that the cost and demand of acrylonitrile are supported to some extent, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the domestic market of acrylic acid has risen first and then declined since October. The quotation in East China rose from 833.33 yuan/ton on the first day to 8566.67 yuan/ton on the 10th, and then fell to 8433.33 yuan/ton on the 17th. According to the analysis, at present, the raw propylene market is running strongly, and the cost support is still strong. The supply and demand side procurement is mainly just in demand, and the market turnover is moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will run strongly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, since October, the LNG market has declined 7.2% due to turbulence: the average price on the first day is 6834 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 17th day is 6342 yuan/ton. During this period, the average price has risen in the first ten days and has fallen since the middle ten days. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. Transportation is limited in some regions due to the epidemic situation, while liquid prices in other regions are higher, with obvious regional differences. The domestic LNG price began to fall around the 10th, and the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak. The epidemic situation has a great impact on upstream shipment, and the market continues to fall. It is expected that the price of LNG will be stable in the short term.

Future market forecast: Gongyi, the main production area of polyacrylamide in China, will stop production since the 10th of this month, and the current public health events in some regions have a certain logistics impact. This year’s water treatment market is lower than the same period in 2021. It is expected that the production cost in some regions will rise when the raw materials have risen to a certain extent. However, due to the low demand and sufficient stock, the future market will still be dominated by stability, supplemented by a small adjustment in some markets.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated widely this week. As of October 14, spot nickel quoted 192016.67 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day and 33.21% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still volatile.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

On October 13, LME nickel inventory was 52698 tons, 30 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 702 tons, a decrease of 1.3%.

On the macro level, the IMF again lowered the global GDP growth forecast for next year. It is expected that the global GDP growth rate will decline from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% this year, and further to 2.7% in 2023. On Thursday evening, the latest US inflation data exceeded market expectations. The US announced that September’s CPI was the focus of financial markets. In September, the CPI rose 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of supply and demand, nickel ore is affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the supply starts to fall back. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost support is strong. In October, the stainless steel production scheduling plan rebounded, the commencement of downstream demand side stainless steel gradually rebounded, and the demand for ferronickel also increased. The economy of ferronickel still exists, so the demand is guaranteed. Therefore, supply and demand have supported nickel price.

In general, although the long-term fundamentals of nickel price are poor, the current supply and demand are supported, the macro level is empty, and the global economy slows down. It is expected that nickel price will maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

After the festival, DOTP prices rose first and then fell

According to the data monitoring of the business community, DOTP prices rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 13, the DOTP price was 10125 yuan/ton, down 3.11% from 10450 yuan/ton on October 11; Compared with the DOTP price of 10100 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 0.25%. After a long holiday, enterprises increased replenishment, plasticizer industry chain prices rose, costs rose, and DOTP prices rose significantly; With the end of replenishment, the price of products in the industrial chain fell rapidly, and the DOTP price fell sharply.

After the festival, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 13, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; The price of isooctanol dropped by 2.86% compared with the price of 9333.33 yuan/ton on October 10. After the festival, enterprises replenished more stocks, the price of isooctanol rose, downstream demand was poor after the replenishment, the rise of isooctanol was not supported enough, and isooctanol fell under pressure.

PTA prices rose first and then fell after the festival

According to the price monitoring of the business community, affected by the changes in crude oil prices, PTA prices rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 13, the PTA price was 6021.67 yuan/ton, down 5.59% from 6378.33 yuan/ton on October 1 before the festival; It was 7.60% lower than the PTA price of 6516.67 yuan/ton on October 10. During the National Day, the international crude oil price rose sharply, stimulating the PTA price to rise. However, after the festival, the crude oil fell continuously in the opening. The PTA price fell sharply, and the DOTP cost support fell.

Future market expectation

The DOTP data analysts of the business community believe that, affected by the changes in international crude oil, the domestic chemical prices have risen and fallen significantly. After the National Day replenishment, the prices of plasticizer industrial chain products have risen sharply after the festival. With the completion of the replenishment, the international crude oil prices have fallen, the plasticizer rise has supported the decline, and the DOTP price has fallen sharply. In the future, the recovery of DOTP demand is limited, and the cost support for the decline of raw material prices is insufficient. It is expected that the future DOTP prices will be weak, volatile and stable.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to rise after the festival. As of October 12, the spot market price of acrylonitrile in China was 10050 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from 9870 yuan/ton before the festival. After the festival, the supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall operation rate of 60% to 70%. The listing price of enterprises was raised, and the business offer was slightly higher. As of October 12, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile bulk water market in East China was between 9800 and 10350 yuan/ton.

After the festival, the price of raw propylene rose slightly, supporting the cost. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 12, the domestic propylene price was 7750 yuan/ton, up 1.71% from 7620 yuan/ton before the festival.

After the festival, the price of ABS in the downstream of acrylonitrile continued to rise and the inventory declined, and ABS continued to operate at a high level of 80% to 90% when it started construction; Acrylic fiber, polyacrylamide and nitrile rubber industries started to maintain stability, and demand continued to support acrylonitrile.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost and demand of acrylonitrile are supported to some extent, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be strong in the short term.

On October 10, domestic commodity futures rose in a large area. The main contracts of low sulfur fuel oil and crude oil rose by more than 11%, fuel oil rose by more than 8%, and PTA rose by more than 6%. PTA spot market rose with each passing day. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average market price in East China on that day was 6516 yuan/ton, 0.81% higher than the previous trading day, and 20% higher than the previous trading day.

During the National Day, the production reduction agreement was reached at the OPEC+conference, which boosted the continuous rise of international oil prices, and PTA showed an increase driven by costs. PTA’s own industry started stably at around 80%, and the overall demand order of the terminal factory improved partially, but the efficiency was still poor, and the overall supply and demand continued to be weak.

Business agency analysts believe that the short-term follow cost of PTA prices will remain volatile.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of thermal coal rose as a whole this month. On September 29, the energy index was 1161 points, up 8 points from yesterday, down 25.62% from the highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 127.20% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The overall price of steam coal in this month is relatively strong. In terms of origin, affected by the epidemic situation and safety reduction, coal mines are now mainly used to ensure long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. The downstream non electricity demand is fair. In addition, due to the arrival of the National Day holiday, enterprises are actively stocking up, and the supply of coal falls short of demand. In addition, the overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices.

Macro data: The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 27th that from January to August 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve operating revenue of 87.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year on year. The business income of mining owners was 4458.15 billion yuan, up 31.6% year on year. Among them, the main business income of coal mining and washing industry was 265.359 billion yuan, up 45.1% year on year; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 840.46 billion yuan, up 46.6% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 334.38 billion yuan, down 19.0% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 222.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.4%; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 272.08 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.31 billion yuan, up 54.1% year on year. Among them, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry was 709.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0%; The total profit of the oil and gas exploitation industry was 290.1 billion yuan, up 111.0% year on year; The total profit of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 47.95 billion yuan, down 27.9% year on year; The total profit of nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 48.06 billion yuan, up 44.3% year on year; The total profit of non-metallic mining and beneficiation industry was 28.64 billion yuan, up 10.6% year on year.

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall price of steam coal in September was relatively strong. At present, coal mines are still mainly guaranteed supply and long-term cooperation with coal. There are few marketable resources in the market. Traders’ quotations are relatively firm. The overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices. However, considering the policy aspect, it is comprehensively expected that steam coal will be mainly used to collate the operating market in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose in September, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry stopped falling and rebounded. On September 29, the rare earth index was 664 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.06% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 145.02% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The price trend of products in the domestic light rare earth market rose, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series in the light rare earth market rose. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have increased to varying degrees. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 755000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 15.27%; The price of neodymium metal was 920000 yuan/ton, up 7.60%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 745000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.03%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 672500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.35%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 815000 yuan/ton, up 9.03%; The price of praseodymium metal is 995000 yuan/ton, with the monthly price rising 5.29%. Recently, the price of rare earth industry rebounded.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market rose. The downstream magnetic material factories continued to replenish their stocks before the National Day holiday. In addition, the rare earth industry gradually entered the peak season, and some downstream businesses started to stock up. The demand increased, and the price of rare earth market rose. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply is tight, and the market price continues to rise. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, and the demand for spot purchases has risen, supporting the rise of rare earth market. Downstream demand improved, replenishment increased, traders offered actively, and the domestic light rare earth market rose.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has improved. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1 time, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, and the demand in the new energy field was still supported. The price of light rare earth in the domestic market was favorable, and the price of rare earth rose.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has risen. As of the 30th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.3 million yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.75%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.275 million yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.08%; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.995 million yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.27%; The price trend of domestic terbium series rose slightly. The price of domestic terbium oxide was 13.025 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium was 16.35 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths has risen, the raw material inventory of the separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places has decreased, the production enterprises have gradually started to work, and the rare earth market atmosphere has improved. In addition, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has risen.

In 2022, the first batch of rare earth total amount control indicators met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the total control index for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, up sharply year on year. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of oversupply has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.