According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of thermal coal rose as a whole this month. On September 29, the energy index was 1161 points, up 8 points from yesterday, down 25.62% from the highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 127.20% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The overall price of steam coal in this month is relatively strong. In terms of origin, affected by the epidemic situation and safety reduction, coal mines are now mainly used to ensure long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. The downstream non electricity demand is fair. In addition, due to the arrival of the National Day holiday, enterprises are actively stocking up, and the supply of coal falls short of demand. In addition, the overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices.

Macro data: The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 27th that from January to August 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve operating revenue of 87.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year on year. The business income of mining owners was 4458.15 billion yuan, up 31.6% year on year. Among them, the main business income of coal mining and washing industry was 265.359 billion yuan, up 45.1% year on year; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 840.46 billion yuan, up 46.6% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 334.38 billion yuan, down 19.0% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 222.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.4%; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 272.08 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.31 billion yuan, up 54.1% year on year. Among them, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry was 709.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0%; The total profit of the oil and gas exploitation industry was 290.1 billion yuan, up 111.0% year on year; The total profit of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 47.95 billion yuan, down 27.9% year on year; The total profit of nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 48.06 billion yuan, up 44.3% year on year; The total profit of non-metallic mining and beneficiation industry was 28.64 billion yuan, up 10.6% year on year.

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall price of steam coal in September was relatively strong. At present, coal mines are still mainly guaranteed supply and long-term cooperation with coal. There are few marketable resources in the market. Traders’ quotations are relatively firm. The overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices. However, considering the policy aspect, it is comprehensively expected that steam coal will be mainly used to collate the operating market in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose in September, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry stopped falling and rebounded. On September 29, the rare earth index was 664 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.06% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 145.02% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The price trend of products in the domestic light rare earth market rose, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series in the light rare earth market rose. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have increased to varying degrees. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 755000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 15.27%; The price of neodymium metal was 920000 yuan/ton, up 7.60%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 745000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.03%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 672500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.35%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 815000 yuan/ton, up 9.03%; The price of praseodymium metal is 995000 yuan/ton, with the monthly price rising 5.29%. Recently, the price of rare earth industry rebounded.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market rose. The downstream magnetic material factories continued to replenish their stocks before the National Day holiday. In addition, the rare earth industry gradually entered the peak season, and some downstream businesses started to stock up. The demand increased, and the price of rare earth market rose. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply is tight, and the market price continues to rise. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, and the demand for spot purchases has risen, supporting the rise of rare earth market. Downstream demand improved, replenishment increased, traders offered actively, and the domestic light rare earth market rose.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has improved. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1 time, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, and the demand in the new energy field was still supported. The price of light rare earth in the domestic market was favorable, and the price of rare earth rose.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has risen. As of the 30th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.3 million yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.75%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.275 million yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.08%; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.995 million yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.27%; The price trend of domestic terbium series rose slightly. The price of domestic terbium oxide was 13.025 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium was 16.35 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths has risen, the raw material inventory of the separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places has decreased, the production enterprises have gradually started to work, and the rare earth market atmosphere has improved. In addition, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has risen.

In 2022, the first batch of rare earth total amount control indicators met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the total control index for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, up sharply year on year. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of oversupply has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on September 30 was 110.47, unchanged from yesterday, 22.55% lower than the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and 31.01% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) rose slightly in late September. On the 21st, the market reported 2027.5 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, 2043.75 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. Since September, affected by the rising cost of raw materials and energy, manufacturers once offered one price a day or one price for one product in the first ten days of the year. The market is bullish, and the price of enterprises with tight supply has risen by tens to hundreds of yuan. However, the actual transaction price of manufacturers with more inventory has been limited, and the external quotation is also relatively moderate; In the middle and late ten days, the factory started work normally, the inventory was sufficient, the driving role of raw material factors was weakened, and the market fell back. At the beginning of this month, this round of upward market of polyaluminum chloride had temporarily ended. Due to the restriction of some logistics vehicles during the National Day, the difficulty in finding vehicles and the increase of transportation costs have a certain impact on the market of polyaluminum chloride. With the arrival of the National Day holiday, the procurement is flat, and the market is expected to continue to be stable in the future.

Raw hydrochloric acid: In late September, the domestic hydrochloric acid market was basically stable at about 153.3 yuan/ton, but the price at the end of the month fell 43.27% year-on-year. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market has risen sharply, providing good support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market is less supportive, and the downstream manufacturers are less active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market price of LNG rose 1.79% in late September. The average price on the 21st day was 6828 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 30th day was 6950 yuan/ton. Although there were downward fluctuations during this period, the price continued to rise 10.6% from the 23rd to the 28th of this ten day. Near the National Day holiday, due to transportation considerations, a large number of downstream replenishment. There was a strong buying atmosphere on the floor, and the rising trend continued. With the maintenance of the Sino Russian pipeline, the on-site supply is reduced. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to rise in the short term.

Future forecast: the supply and demand level is relatively stable, the limited transportation market during the National Day holiday is flat, and the polyaluminum chloride market is expected to continue to be stable, moderate and small after the festival.

In September, the domestic cyclohexanone market stopped falling and recovered. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the beginning of the month was 9550 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the end of the month was 9900 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.41%.

In September, the cost of cyclohexanone, supply and demand both performed well, the price market stopped falling and recovered, and the ladder rose.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose by a narrow margin, mainly due to the rising market of raw material pure benzene. Cost oriented good support. Downstream caprolactam rose steadily. Chemical fiber companies need to follow up. Driven by the good news of cyclohexanone, the low price decreased and the transaction focus increased.

In the middle of this month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was reorganized after rising, mainly in shock. The raw material pure benzene is slightly favorable. The downstream chemical fiber steel needs to be purchased. There is no obvious pressure on cyclohexanone for the time being. The manufacturer’s low price is reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic market of cyclohexanone was in a strong shock, and the price of Hualu Hengsheng, the main manufacturer, rose from 9700 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, mainly because the cost was supported by the upstream and the downstream pre holiday replenishment and merchants pushed up, and the transaction focus rose.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of September 29:

Region, price

In East China, 10000-10100 yuan/ton will be sent to

In South China, 10100-10200 yuan/ton of spot exchange will be sent to

In Shandong, 9900-10000 yuan/ton of spot exchange is sent to

Raw material pure benzene: According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic pure benzene market has risen significantly. The price at the beginning of the month was 7617 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7899 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.24%.

Downstream caprolactam: the business community monitored that the domestic caprolactam spot market rose first and then fell, with the price of 11816 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 11469 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decline of 2.94% in the cycle.

Raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, with stable cost support, and the intention of downstream goods preparation increased before the festival. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business community predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market would be dominated by a strong consolidation.

1、 Summary of prices of mixed xylene on September 27:

Qingdao Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7850 yuan/ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan/ton, Yangba quoted 7950 yuan/ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan/ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton,

Changling Refining&Chemical offered 8200 yuan/ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+meeting is coming, and the market expects that the meeting policy may be aimed at reducing supply; Before the arrival of Hurricane Ian, the supply in the US Gulf region was limited, and international oil prices rebounded yesterday.

Today, Sinopec’s mixed xylene in East China decreased by 150 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical’s mixed xylene decreased by 50 yuan/ton.

Crude oil rebounded and gasoline slightly strengthened, boosting the mixed xylene market. However, the market negotiation was light, and Sinopec lowered the price of mixed xylene in East China, so the industry was cautious.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the price of PET water bottle has been operating in a narrow range and weak. At present, the average price is 8310 yuan/ton, down 0.95% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is operating in a narrow range and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is low, the market shipments are average, the logistics is smooth, and the operating rate is stable.

The domestic PET price is narrow and weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price has decreased slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers mainly give up profits and take orders, the shipment is active, the logistics is smooth, the supply side is normal, the overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 8300 yuan/ton, and the small reduction is weak,

Upstream ethylene glycol: As of September 26, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4366.67 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from the market average price of 4441.67 yuan/ton on September 16. Downstream demand was weak, mainly weak in the short term.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 26, the rubber and plastic index was 705 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 33.49% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 33.52% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business community believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, and the price fluctuation range is limited.

According to the data from the business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell this week. As of September 25, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 8620.00 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the price of 8700.00 yuan/ton on September 19, and up 13.42% from the same period last month.

On September 25, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 81.58, unchanged from yesterday, 50.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15), and 59.40% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was shut down this week. The supply of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the downstream has entered the pre festival stocking cycle, but the resin purchasing mood is general, stocking is cautious, and the deal is limited. As of the 25th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 8000 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 8000 yuan/ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was about 9000 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 8500 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene rose this week. On September 19, the average price of pure benzene was 7850.50 yuan/ton, and on September 25, the average price of pure benzene was 7947.17 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose this week, at 7866.67 yuan/ton on September 19, and 7966.67 yuan/ton on September 25, up 1.27% weekly. As for n-butane, as of September 25, the price in Shandong was 5800 yuan/ton.

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the business community, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has suffered a serious loss at present, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation supply is small; The supply of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the downstream has entered the pre festival stocking cycle, but the resin purchasing mood is general, stocking is cautious, and the deal is limited. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Friday was 36250 yuan/ton, and the average price this Friday was 36500 yuan/ton. The price will rise within seven days by 0.69%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this week. At present, the market transaction is fair. Downstream stock has slowed down compared with last week, and inquiries have increased. The actual transaction is more cautious and more wait-and-see. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphate rock continued to operate steadily this week. Up to now, the reference price of phosphate rock is 1064.00. The domestic market of medium and high-end grade phosphate ore is mainly stable and consolidated. The market is generally quiet, and the information has not changed much. From the supply side, the supply side is still tight, and the supply side continues to support the market at a high level. From the demand side, the low commencement of downstream phosphate fertilizer has brought some concern to the market. After the festival, the phosphate ore market was light and stable.

In terms of coke, on September 23, the coke market price of Shandong Port was temporarily stable, with the quasi first level ex warehouse price of the port at about 2650-2680 yuan/ton, and the first level ex warehouse price at 2750-2780 yuan/ton. The port market was operating stably today, with the market sentiment recovering. After the rise was opened, the market mentality was boosted, the intention of gathering ports was restored, and the freight was in a reasonable range. On the 23rd, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao at 215 yuan/ton, and the rest arrived at Rizhao at 210 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable.

For phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid fell this week. The average price of phosphoric acid last Friday was 10320 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 10130 yuan/ton. The price fell within the week, by 1.84%. The price of raw yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell, and the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market moved downward. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that the yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this week. On the whole, the price of upstream phosphate rock settled at a high level, while the price of downstream phosphoric acid market fell. The price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell this week. The situation of taking goods was not as good as that of last week. It was mainly just in demand. The yellow phosphorus market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride fell in a volatile manner this week, and the acetic anhydride market declined in a weak way. As of September 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 5700 yuan/ton, down 5% from 6000 yuan/ton at the end of last week; This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell.

The price of raw materials fell sharply this week

 
As can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of the business community, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week. As of September 22, the price of acetic acid was 3132.50 yuan/ton, down 1.65% from 3185 yuan/ton on September 15 last weekend. The demand remains weak, the transactions in the acetic acid market are light, the price of acetic acid drops in shock, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increases.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the acetic anhydride market is still flat this week, the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient and the demand is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is mainly supported by the cost of raw materials. The price of raw material acetic acid fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is weak due to the decrease of its cost. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fall in a volatile way in the future.

The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (9.14-9.21). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 21, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 13020 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from 12970 yuan/ton last Wednesday. The short-term maintenance of 150000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Corporation, the shutdown of Taixiang Yubu for maintenance, the load reduction operation of Haopu and Zhenhua units, the pressure on the short-term supply side is relieved, and the supply side forms a support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. However, at present, the construction of downstream tires in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi has not been greatly improved, mainly due to rigid demand, and the demand support is not ideal; Butadiene prices rose and cost continued to support. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil was stable, and the ex factory price of Sinopec North China Sales Company Qilu Shunding was 12600 yuan/ton.

The butadiene market rose this week (9.14-9.21), and the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber was supported. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 21, the price of butadiene was 9164 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from 9006 yuan/ton last Wednesday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week, but the price was lower than that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which was insufficient to support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 21, the price of natural rubber was 12120 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from 11956 yuan/ton last Wednesday.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the polybutadiene rubber production chain has eased, the demand side just needs weak support, and the cost side is going up. It is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the later period.