The domestic cobalt price fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the average domestic cobalt price was 352300 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from 358700 yuan/ton on October 12; The cobalt price increased by 1.73% from 346300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. In October, the cobalt price rose first and then fell. After the festival, enterprises replenished their stocks. The demand for cobalt recovered briefly, and the cobalt price rose slightly. After the replenishment, the domestic cobalt price began to fall due to the decline of the international cobalt price.

Trend Chart of MB Cobalt Price in October

It can be seen from the MB cobalt price trend chart that the MB cobalt price in October failed to continue the rise in September. Although the MB alloy cobalt price rose slightly, the standard cobalt price fell sharply. As of October 21, the average price of standard cobalt was 25.775 dollars/pound, down 0.325 dollars/pound from the standard cobalt price of 26.1 dollars/pound at the beginning of the month; The international cobalt market fell, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the rising support of the cobalt market was weakened.

Future outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that in October, the supply and demand of the domestic cobalt market were limited, and the supply and demand of the cobalt market were relatively balanced. The rise of the cobalt price supported the limited downward pressure. The cobalt price was relatively stable, but the international cobalt price fell, which was bad for the domestic cobalt market. In the future, due to the negative impact of the international market, the upward momentum of the domestic cobalt market has weakened. It is expected that the cobalt price in the future will stabilize or fall back slightly.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price trend of cryolite in Henan Province rose slightly this week. On October 21, the average market price in Henan Province was 7875 yuan/ton, 1.29% higher than the price of 7775 yuan/ton on October 15, and 1.94% higher month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market sorted out and went up. The cryolite quotation rose slightly. The raw material end manufacturers started low, the market supply was tight, the cryolite raw materials were tight, and the enterprises were limited to start work. The cryolite devices in the site were operated at low loads. The prices of coal and natural gas were high in terms of fuel. The cost pressure of cryolite manufacturers increased. The manufacturers were firm in mind. The cryolite price was high, and the downstream demand was general. The enterprises shipped according to demand, The industry is mainly wait-and-see. Within the week, the cryolite manufacturers raised their prices according to their own shipment conditions. As of October 21, the factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 8000 yuan/ton, the factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7500-9000 yuan/ton, and the interval price was 100 yuan/ton higher.

The upstream fluorite remained stable at a high level. As of October 21, the market average price was about 2956.25 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price on October 15. The supply side mining enterprises were short of production due to safety and environmental protection requirements. The processing costs of fluorite enterprises were under pressure, the inventory was tight, and the fluorite price remained stable at a high level.

In the downstream aluminum market, the market fell first and then rose. On October 21, the aluminum price was about 18676.67 yuan/ton, 0.27% higher than that on October 15. Inventory pressure suppresses the aluminum price market. Only when there is a large gap between supply and demand in the global aluminum market can a sustained rebound trend be formed. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected that the trend will remain volatile in the short term.

Future market forecast

The raw material side continues to be tight, the cryolite commencement is limited, and the price is high and firm, while the downstream is wait-and-see, buying on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The cryolite enterprises ship on demand. At present, the market supply and demand are deadlocked, and the short-term cryolite market is expected to be high and stable.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the PC market generally fell in mid October, and the spot prices of various brands stabilized after falling. As of October 22, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 18400 yuan/ton, up or down by – 2.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. In addition, the industrial load has increased, and the upstream and downstream are weak and resonant. But this week, the price level has fallen to near the cost, and it is hard to lower it further. In addition, the supply of low price goods stimulated downstream replenishment, and the market momentum recovered. The spot offer bottomed out and rebounded within the week.

In the middle of October, the bisphenol A market recovered in a narrow range after falling, and the PC cost side was generally supported. In terms of industry load, Shandong PC enterprises had a certain maintenance scale this week, the industry operation rate was low, and the supply of goods on the market was tightened. The supply side support strength rose to hedge against the raw material negative, and the market improved in the second half of the week. The actual demand in the downstream is less than that in previous years. In the first half of the week, the merchants gave up their profits and took orders. The warming of the market near the weekend stimulated buyers to enter the market. However, the terminal enterprises just need to maintain production to get goods, and there are still not many actual PC orders delivered on the market.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believed that the domestic PC market stabilized after the decline in mid October, the upstream bisphenol A market fell back to a warmer level, and the cost side did not support PC well. On the supply side, the on-site supply of goods has shrunk due to the recent capacity loss, and the pressure on the supply side has eased slightly. The demand is weak, and there are scattered small orders to follow up after the price reduction. It is expected that PC spot price will recover in a narrow range in the near future.

On the 18th, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline, and the mainstream offer was 12800-13000 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. The upstream raw material phenol declined by a narrow margin, the acetone market offer was firm, and the factory raised the price by 200 yuan/ton. The two major downstream markets fell significantly, and the decline in the operating rate was negative for the raw materials, which was difficult to be positive on the demand side. The participation of middlemen significantly depressed the price. The bisphenol A market fell frequently, and it has been close to the low level in the short term. The market attention has increased. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to weaken today.

The offer of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market as of the last trading day:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 12900., – 300

Shandong, 12800., – 300

According to the data from the list of bulk commodities of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has declined recently. On the 11th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1446.67 yuan/ton, and on the 18th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1393.33 yuan/ton, down 3.69%. The current price rose by 5.56% month on month, and the current price fell by 37.14% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fallen, which can be seen from the figure above. As of October 18, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has declined, and the cost support is poor. The formaldehyde market has been affected by methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. The purchase of just needed products is maintained. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market has weakened slightly.

Upstream methanol situation: the domestic methanol market in East China has rebounded. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 3246 yuan/ton to 2812 yuan/ton from October 8 to 18. During the cycle, the price dropped by 13.37%, with a month on month increase of 1.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.87%. Before the National Day, due to the availability of goods before the festival and the tight supply and demand in some regions, the domestic methanol market price rose sharply, and the port price broke the 3000 yuan/ton mark. With the increase of arrival and inventory in some regions, as well as the consumption of pre holiday stock in downstream areas after the holiday, the methanol price market has turned “upside down”. After the festival, the domestic methanol market continued to decline unilaterally, and the quotations of manufacturers were also lowered for many times. The market atmosphere was “calm”.

This week, the methanol market failed to withstand the pressure and began to decline. The downstream panel plants are currently operating in an ordinary way. They are mostly wait-and-see attitude towards the formaldehyde market and have a strong bargaining mood. The market inventory is not well digested. The formaldehyde manufacturers adjusted their prices for shipment, and the formaldehyde market is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has declined, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants continues to be poor. Under the dual pressure, the formaldehyde market is difficult to improve greatly. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predict that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong is mainly weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 17 was 94.36, down 0.17 points from yesterday, 15.38% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% from the lowest point of August 2, 2020, 82.89. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has been basically stable since October, mainly reporting about 15471.43 yuan/ton. At present, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, have stopped production since the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements, and the industry is expected to resume production this month; At the same time, some areas have been in a state of silence due to public health incidents recently. The cost of raw materials has risen to a certain extent, and the downstream demand is general. Due to the sufficient spot inventory, the overall market of polyacrylamide is mainly stable, and some brands of a small number of enterprises have decreased slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the domestic acrylonitrile market has been strong since October. Among them, the domestic market reported 9870 yuan/ton on the first day and 10250 yuan/ton on the 17th, up only 3.85%. In terms of industry, after the festival, the supply side operating rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall starting rate of 60% to 70%. The listing price of enterprises was raised, and the business offer was slightly higher; The price of raw propylene rose slightly, while the price of ABS downstream of acrylonitrile continued to rise and the inventory declined. As for the future market, the analysis shows that the cost and demand of acrylonitrile are supported to some extent, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the domestic market of acrylic acid has risen first and then declined since October. The quotation in East China rose from 833.33 yuan/ton on the first day to 8566.67 yuan/ton on the 10th, and then fell to 8433.33 yuan/ton on the 17th. According to the analysis, at present, the raw propylene market is running strongly, and the cost support is still strong. The supply and demand side procurement is mainly just in demand, and the market turnover is moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will run strongly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, since October, the LNG market has declined 7.2% due to turbulence: the average price on the first day is 6834 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 17th day is 6342 yuan/ton. During this period, the average price has risen in the first ten days and has fallen since the middle ten days. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. Transportation is limited in some regions due to the epidemic situation, while liquid prices in other regions are higher, with obvious regional differences. The domestic LNG price began to fall around the 10th, and the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak. The epidemic situation has a great impact on upstream shipment, and the market continues to fall. It is expected that the price of LNG will be stable in the short term.

Future market forecast: Gongyi, the main production area of polyacrylamide in China, will stop production since the 10th of this month, and the current public health events in some regions have a certain logistics impact. This year’s water treatment market is lower than the same period in 2021. It is expected that the production cost in some regions will rise when the raw materials have risen to a certain extent. However, due to the low demand and sufficient stock, the future market will still be dominated by stability, supplemented by a small adjustment in some markets.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated widely this week. As of October 14, spot nickel quoted 192016.67 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day and 33.21% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still volatile.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

On October 13, LME nickel inventory was 52698 tons, 30 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 702 tons, a decrease of 1.3%.

On the macro level, the IMF again lowered the global GDP growth forecast for next year. It is expected that the global GDP growth rate will decline from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% this year, and further to 2.7% in 2023. On Thursday evening, the latest US inflation data exceeded market expectations. The US announced that September’s CPI was the focus of financial markets. In September, the CPI rose 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of supply and demand, nickel ore is affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the supply starts to fall back. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost support is strong. In October, the stainless steel production scheduling plan rebounded, the commencement of downstream demand side stainless steel gradually rebounded, and the demand for ferronickel also increased. The economy of ferronickel still exists, so the demand is guaranteed. Therefore, supply and demand have supported nickel price.

In general, although the long-term fundamentals of nickel price are poor, the current supply and demand are supported, the macro level is empty, and the global economy slows down. It is expected that nickel price will maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

After the festival, DOTP prices rose first and then fell

According to the data monitoring of the business community, DOTP prices rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 13, the DOTP price was 10125 yuan/ton, down 3.11% from 10450 yuan/ton on October 11; Compared with the DOTP price of 10100 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 0.25%. After a long holiday, enterprises increased replenishment, plasticizer industry chain prices rose, costs rose, and DOTP prices rose significantly; With the end of replenishment, the price of products in the industrial chain fell rapidly, and the DOTP price fell sharply.

After the festival, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 13, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; The price of isooctanol dropped by 2.86% compared with the price of 9333.33 yuan/ton on October 10. After the festival, enterprises replenished more stocks, the price of isooctanol rose, downstream demand was poor after the replenishment, the rise of isooctanol was not supported enough, and isooctanol fell under pressure.

PTA prices rose first and then fell after the festival

According to the price monitoring of the business community, affected by the changes in crude oil prices, PTA prices rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 13, the PTA price was 6021.67 yuan/ton, down 5.59% from 6378.33 yuan/ton on October 1 before the festival; It was 7.60% lower than the PTA price of 6516.67 yuan/ton on October 10. During the National Day, the international crude oil price rose sharply, stimulating the PTA price to rise. However, after the festival, the crude oil fell continuously in the opening. The PTA price fell sharply, and the DOTP cost support fell.

Future market expectation

The DOTP data analysts of the business community believe that, affected by the changes in international crude oil, the domestic chemical prices have risen and fallen significantly. After the National Day replenishment, the prices of plasticizer industrial chain products have risen sharply after the festival. With the completion of the replenishment, the international crude oil prices have fallen, the plasticizer rise has supported the decline, and the DOTP price has fallen sharply. In the future, the recovery of DOTP demand is limited, and the cost support for the decline of raw material prices is insufficient. It is expected that the future DOTP prices will be weak, volatile and stable.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to rise after the festival. As of October 12, the spot market price of acrylonitrile in China was 10050 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from 9870 yuan/ton before the festival. After the festival, the supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall operation rate of 60% to 70%. The listing price of enterprises was raised, and the business offer was slightly higher. As of October 12, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile bulk water market in East China was between 9800 and 10350 yuan/ton.

After the festival, the price of raw propylene rose slightly, supporting the cost. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 12, the domestic propylene price was 7750 yuan/ton, up 1.71% from 7620 yuan/ton before the festival.

After the festival, the price of ABS in the downstream of acrylonitrile continued to rise and the inventory declined, and ABS continued to operate at a high level of 80% to 90% when it started construction; Acrylic fiber, polyacrylamide and nitrile rubber industries started to maintain stability, and demand continued to support acrylonitrile.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost and demand of acrylonitrile are supported to some extent, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be strong in the short term.

On October 10, domestic commodity futures rose in a large area. The main contracts of low sulfur fuel oil and crude oil rose by more than 11%, fuel oil rose by more than 8%, and PTA rose by more than 6%. PTA spot market rose with each passing day. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average market price in East China on that day was 6516 yuan/ton, 0.81% higher than the previous trading day, and 20% higher than the previous trading day.

During the National Day, the production reduction agreement was reached at the OPEC+conference, which boosted the continuous rise of international oil prices, and PTA showed an increase driven by costs. PTA’s own industry started stably at around 80%, and the overall demand order of the terminal factory improved partially, but the efficiency was still poor, and the overall supply and demand continued to be weak.

Business agency analysts believe that the short-term follow cost of PTA prices will remain volatile.