According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3883 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3916 yuan/ton, up 0.86%.

The domestic potassium sulfate price is firm. Recently, the operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant has slightly increased, and the national average operating rate has exceeded 30%. At present, the factory price of 52% of Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly discussed. The demand of the northeast market is still concentrated on the granular potassium sulfate. The plant of resource based potassium sulfate manufacturers is still limited in operation. CITIC Guoan will resume production at the weekend. The production of SDIC Luoke is stable, and traders still have more supplies.

The supply of goods in the domestic potash fertilizer market is relatively concentrated, the production of domestic potash plants has decreased slightly, the recent resistance of railway transportation of goods sources is large, and the arrival of goods in various regions is limited. The marketable quantity of imported potassium is still limited, the signing of new orders for border trade is still unclear, and the growth of supply side is limited.

Forecast: Enquiries in the potash fertilizer market are increasing, the supply of goods is relatively concentrated, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by shock consolidation.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.2-12.9) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 186710 yuan/ton last weekend and 196410 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.02%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the figure above that tin prices will rise continuously after November 2022 due to macro factors.

Futures market situation this week

Variety./Closing price./Compared with the same period of last week./Inventory (ton)./Inventory change compared with last week (ton)

Shanghai Tin./198090 yuan/ton./+11190 yuan/ton./5696./+988

London tin./24165 dollars/ton./+595 dollars/ton./3140./+80

The futures market has a strong trend this week, rising as a whole. Affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the beginning of the week, the metal market has generally strengthened, and tin prices have surged. The trend of Lunxi is basically similar to that of Shanghai Tin, rising rapidly at the beginning of the week and rising slightly later.

This week, the spot market price basically coincided with the trend of Shanghai Tin, the overall market trading was slightly weak, business transactions were limited, and downstream purchasing remained just in demand. Fundamentals have not changed much in recent years, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Although the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to improve in the near future, the market mentality is slightly boosted. However, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual demand has not changed much. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The top three commodities that rose were nickel (3.91%), dysprosium oxide (2.37%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (2.25%). There were 9 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and the top three products that declined were metal silicon (-2.77%), aluminum (-1.36%) and silver (-1.36%). The average rise or fall this week was 0.2%.

The domestic acetic acid market operates in a weak way. Although the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity in the market declines, the downstream demand is sluggish. The market trading atmosphere is general. In addition, the raw material market is weak, and the acetic acid market lacks effective support. In order to relieve the inventory pressure, acetic acid enterprises move down their transaction focus, market supply is weak, and the price of acetic acid continues to decline.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, as of December 9, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3200.00 yuan/ton, down 3.98% compared with 3332.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and down 7.04% month on month. As of December 9, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions in the week were as follows:

Region./December 2./December 9./Price rise and fall

South China./3200 yuan/ton./3150 yuan/ton./- 50

North China./3100 yuan/ton./3050 yuan/ton./- 50

Shandong region./3175 yuan/ton./3100 yuan/ton./- 75

Jiangsu region./3050 yuan/ton./2950 yuan/ton./- 100

Zhejiang region./3150 yuan/ton./3050 yuan/ton./- 100

The upstream methanol market fell first and then rose. As of December 9, the average price in the domestic market was 2680.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.37% compared with 2670.00 yuan/ton on December 2. Affected by the wide fluctuation of crude oil, methanol prices continued to decline at the beginning of the week. Later, the price of methanol in the external market rose, boosting the domestic market. Methanol prices rebounded. However, on the whole, the supply side has sufficient supply of methanol, downstream demand is weak, and future market support is insufficient. It is expected that the methanol market will be adjusted and operated.

The downstream acetic anhydride market was weak. As of December 9, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5566.67 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from 5700.00 yuan/ton on December 2. The upstream acetic acid is weak, and the cost support of acetic anhydride is insufficient. The downstream demand for acetic anhydride is weak, and the purchase is mainly just needed. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price of acetic anhydride is reduced.

The downstream market of ethyl acetate was sorted up. As of December 9, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 6800.00 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from 6750.00 yuan/ton on December 2. The upstream price of acetic acid was lowered, and the support for ethyl acetate was weak. The downstream demand for ethyl acetate was good, and the market purchase was active. The enterprise’s shipment was smooth, and the price of ethyl acetate rose slightly.

According to the acetic acid analysts of the business community, the downstream demand for acetic acid is sluggish, and the on-site trading and investment is weak. In addition, the on-site maintenance enterprises are likely to resume production in the later period, so the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity will increase, the market supply is weak and the demand is weak, and there is a lack of good news. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the NMP market stopped falling and rebounded this week (12.5-12.9). The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the week was 22333 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 22833 yuan/ton, up 2.24%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 21000-22000 yuan/ton. The bottom of raw material BDO price is weak, the price of monomethylamine has been raised recently, and the downstream market has been lower. Driven by demand, NMP rebounded from the bottom, but the rebound is limited.

As of December 9, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/November 18

East China/21000-21500 yuan/ton

Central China/21000-22000 yuan/ton

Southwest China/20500-21500 yuan/ton

Raw materials: BDO fluctuated narrowly this week. In the near future, some equipment maintenance or expectations exist, which supports the continuation of the supplier’s price keeping mentality, and some factories are bidding to stabilize the market. The enthusiasm of downstream market purchasing is not high, and the market focus fluctuates little due to the negotiation and game between supply and demand.

 
3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts from Business Agency believe that although there is a rebound signal in the near future, the downstream order support is limited and the cost support is average. It is expected that the NMP market will be dominated by weak and stable operation next week.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 29 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) fluctuated slightly in the second half of November (16-29). On the 16th, it was reported as 15471.43 yuan/ton, and on the 29th, it was reported as 15471.43 yuan/ton. The highest price in the stage was 15514.29 yuan/ton on the 18th, the lowest was 15442.86 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and the maximum amplitude in the half month was only 0.46%. In the second half of this month, the central heating season began in the north. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products decreased sharply. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The raw material acrylonitrile market fell slightly at a high level, the acrylic acid market was stable, the polyacrylamide market was not supported enough, and the market was flat, stable and slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market that has been going up since the beginning of September reached a stage price peak of 11590 yuan/ton around November 15, and then turned around and went down, with a decline of 8.51% by 10600 yuan/ton on November 29. The golden nine silver ten peak season has passed. With the downstream construction declining and the resistance to the high price of acrylonitrile, the high price of listing has fallen back. In addition, public health events have spread in many places, the demand for acrylonitrile has weakened compared with the previous period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the second half of November (16-29) was down in a volatile manner. On the 29th, the market reported 7366.67 yuan/ton, down 8.30% from 8033.33 yuan/ton on the 16th. It fell 0.45% in a three-month cycle, down 56.67% compared with the same period last year. The atmosphere of downstream procurement was light. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fluctuated, and the cost was still supported. The plant load was slightly adjusted, the operating rate declined compared with the previous period, and the market supply shrank. However, the downstream operating load was also not high, the purchasing mentality was cautious, the market atmosphere was flat, and the price fell first and then stabilized. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the price of domestic LNG fell by 7.57% in the second half of November (16-29), including 4414 yuan/ton on the 16th and 4126 yuan/ton on the 29th. Recently, due to the weakening of cost support, on-site supply exceeds demand, terminal demand release is limited, and the LNG market continues to decline. The new raw gas auction is about to start, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the LNG market will consolidate and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in cost side and downstream demand.

Future forecast: due to the impact of public health events in many places across the country, sealing and control management, and the cold weather, the downstream demand for construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid are not supported. Lacking favorable impetus, the market will remain stable and weak in the future.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the supply and demand relationship. The price of raw material pure benzene was lowered, and the cost support was average. The supply of commodities is stable and abundant, but the downstream demand is weak, the market shipping resistance is large, and the transaction center is falling.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, from November 28 to December 5, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market fell from 9466 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.76%, and the price fell 3.93% month on month and 4.45% year on year.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 5:

Region./Price

East China./8800-9000 yuan/ton cash transfer to

South China./9000-92000 yuan/ton cash transfer to

Shandong region./8600-8700 yuan/ton spot exchange sent to

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene rebounded after falling. East China spot traded at 6300-6630 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Downstream caprolactam: caprolactam market fell. The prices of upstream crude oil and pure benzene fell, and the listing of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered to 6500 yuan/ton, with the cost continuing to be weak. Although some supply on the supply side has decreased, with the decrease of terminal demand, downstream polymerization commencement has declined, the demand for caprolactam has weakened, the overall supply pattern is loose, and the price center has declined.

The cost side is surging, the cost side support is still stable, the supply of cyclohexanone commodity is slightly oversupply, and the market may weaken in a narrow range. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market was weak.

The domestic aggregate MDI market demand is insufficient, and the market is narrow. The monthly settlement prices of manufacturing enterprises have been announced successively, which are significantly lower than that of last month. The market atmosphere is relatively low, the downstream demand is poor, the market situation is weak and difficult to change, and the traders’ quotations are down. As of December 5, the mainstream offer price of domestic Wanhua goods (PM200) was 13800-14000 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) was 13600-13800 yuan/ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 28 to December 5, the domestic aggregate MDI market price fell from 14460 yuan/ton to 14240 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.52%, a month on month drop of 5.07% and a year-on-year drop of 25.29%.

According to the price rise and fall chart of the polymerized MDI industrial chain products of the business community, the products with the price decline of the polymerized MDI industrial chain during the cycle include aniline (- 27.52%), formaldehyde (- 4.1%), polymerized MDI (- 5.07%) and spandex (- 5.26%).

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 5:

Region./Wanhua Goods./Shanghai Goods

East China/13800-14100 yuan/ton above/13500-13600 yuan/ton

North China/. 13900-14000 yuan/ton nearby/. 13400-13600 yuan/ton

South China/. 13800-14000 yuan/ton/. 13500-13600 yuan/ton

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene rebounded after falling. East China spot traded at 6300-6630 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Aniline: The business community monitored the price fluctuation of the domestic aniline market, which was 10437 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10596 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.53% in the cycle.

The downstream consumption capacity is weak, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant. Business agency MDI analysts expect that the domestic MDI market will be mainly on the sidelines.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3833 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3883 yuan/ton, up 1.30%.

The price of potassium sulfate in China keeps rising. Supported by raw materials and costs, the market price of potassium sulfate has generally increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of 52% of processed Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3850-3950 yuan/ton, and the price of granular potassium sulfate is mostly 3900-4050 yuan/ton. It is difficult to find a single product of granular potassium sulfate. The production of resource potassium sulfate is acceptable. The market price of 52% of SDIC’s potassium sulfate powder is about 3800 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high. The actual order will be discussed again.

The operating rate of downstream plants has been increasing, and the price of potash fertilizer market has continued to increase. Under the influence of the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, most small and medium-sized traders have successively built positions. The demand side has a certain support, focusing on the downstream market transactions.

Forecast: The current market demand is slightly supported, but the future market lacks good prospects. It is expected that the potash fertilizer market will be dominated by shock consolidation trend in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 30 was 94.70, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 15.07% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.25% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market rose first, then fell, and then rose again in November, with a slight monthly fluctuation of 0.46%: the market reported 15428.57 yuan/ton on the first day, and 15500 yuan/ton on the 30th day; The highest price in this month was 15514.29 yuan/ton around the 18th, and the lowest was 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with the maximum amplitude of only 0.56%. In the first half of this month, the manufacturer started work normally, the inventory was sufficient, the downstream demand was light, the raw material acrylonitrile market reached the peak in the early middle of the month, and the polyacrylamide market rose slightly, with some stable; In the second half of the month, the central heating season began in the north. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products decreased sharply. Water treatment enterprises in Henan, the main domestic production area, have limited transportation and weak demand; The raw material acrylonitrile market fell slightly at a high level, the acrylic acid market was stable, the polyacrylamide market was not supported enough, and the market was flat, stable and slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market that has been going up since the beginning of September mainly reported 10970 yuan/ton on November 1, reached the peak of 11590 yuan/ton on or about November 15, and then turned around and went down, to 10500 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a monthly decline of 4.28% and the maximum amplitude of 9.40%. The golden nine silver ten peak season has passed. With the downstream construction declining and the resistance to the high price of acrylonitrile, the high price of listing has fallen back. In addition, public health events have spread in many places, the demand for acrylonitrile has weakened compared with the previous period. On the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, on the other hand, the demand is weak at present; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data from the business community, the acrylic acid market in November was down by shock. On the 30th, the market reported 7366.67 yuan/ton, down 10.16% from 8200 yuan/ton on the first day. The atmosphere of downstream purchase was light. In the first half of the month, the price of propylene as raw material increased mainly, the cost support was strengthened, and some units were overhauled. However, downstream procurement was just needed, and the market atmosphere was weak. After the market fell, the market was stable. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fluctuated, and the cost was still supported. The plant load was slightly adjusted, and the operating rate declined compared with the previous period. The market supply shrank. The downstream operating load was also not high. The purchasing mentality was cautious, the market atmosphere was flat, and the price fell first and then stabilized. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic LNG on November 1 was 5450 yuan/ton, and the average market price on November 30 was 4514 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 17.17%, of which the largest drop this month was – 7.16% in the week of November 21. This month, the supply of domestic LNG market exceeded the demand, and the high liquid price began to cover the drop. In some areas, due to snow weather and epidemic control, transportation is blocked. Enterprises cut prices one after another to digest inventory. Market demand is weak and trading is flat. However, at the end of the month, domestic cold air hit, and demand increased slightly. Most liquid plants were still paying high prices. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to rise in the short term.

Future forecast: due to the impact of public health events in many places across the country, sealing and control management, and the cold weather, the downstream demand for construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid are not supported. Lacking favorable impetus, the market will remain stable and weak in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in November

According to the data of the business community, as of November 29, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 12200 yuan/ton, 825 yuan/ton higher than the price of 11175 yuan/ton on November 1, or 9.17%. The cost rose, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in November.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose slightly in November. As of November 29, the price of fluorite had risen by 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the price of 3175 yuan/ton on November 1, and 9.09% higher than the price of 2956.25 yuan/ton on October 30; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November. As of November 29, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12242.86 yuan/ton, up 10.30% from 11100 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid soared, the cost of aluminum fluoride continued to rise, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride increased.

Downstream electricity price aluminum price rises sharply

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of aluminum electrolysis in November was 19050 yuan/ton, up 5.50% from 18056.67 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, the downstream electrolytic aluminum price rose sharply, the demand for aluminum fluoride rose, and the impetus for aluminum fluoride to rise increased.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the business community, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose in shock, and the demand for aluminum fluoride rose. The overall aluminum fluoride cost rose and the demand was favorable. The momentum for aluminum fluoride to rise was increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride in the future will rise in shock.