Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average offer price of PC domestic sample enterprises was 18433.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and the domestic price was 18116.67 yuan/ton on November 8. The range of decline was -1.72%, up and down by -4.31% compared with the price on October 1.

Cause analysis

The global high inflation macro-economy has continued to affect the petrochemical industry chain, but the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase and slowdown has been released recently, and the negative side of the market is less than expected. In addition, the international crude oil production reduction plan was announced. Last week, crude oil rebounded after falling, and PC macro environment and remote costs supported the recovery.

In terms of raw materials: from the figure above, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market continued to be weak in November, and the price continued to fall. At present, from the macro perspective of the chemical industry, the overall situation shows a downward trend. Bisphenol A’s own industrial chain is also in a downward trend, and the support of the industry fundamentals is absent. As of November 7, in the morning, a petrochemical company in East China had bid for first class and superior products at a starting price of 11800 yuan/ton and 11900 yuan/ton. The East China market had implemented an offer of about 12000-12100 yuan/ton, and the on-site negotiations were sluggish. There are few active inquiries in the market. In the short term, the market lacks of advantages.

In terms of supply: Recently, the utilization rate of PC capacity has continued to decline, and the total load of domestic PC enterprises has dropped from more than 55% to nearly 45% within one month. As the industry neared the end of the year, the maintenance was gradually concentrated, and the supply side was significantly tightened. However, the flow of goods in the market is slow, which has hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing.

Demand: the actual demand of PC downstream before did not match the traditional peak season, and the actual demand was less than that of previous years. However, at the end of the current traditional demand season, the terminal enterprises started down, and just needed to support the overall decline. There is little trading on the market, and the actual orders are mainly scattered small orders. Buyers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for preparing goods is poor.

Future market forecast

In the first ten days of November, the PC market fell, the upstream bisphenol A was weak and difficult to change, and the support for PC cost collapsed. The load of domestic polymerization plants is lower, and the supply side has a good profit and is still expected to decline in the short term. In terms of demand, it has weakened synchronously, and the rigid demand support has weakened. The smoothness of goods delivery of merchants is low, and most of them have the operation of making profit order. In general, the supply reduction of PC failed to offset the negative impact, and the market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand and cost collapse. However, the near low spot price will certainly stimulate buying, and it is expected that the recent decline in PC market will narrow and stabilize.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fallen recently. On the first day, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8308.33 yuan/ton, and on the seventh day, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8191.67 yuan/ton, down 1.40%. The price fell by 13.04% year on year.

styrene

Styrene market prices fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fallen in shock, and this week the price continues to fall. The main reason is that the port inventory keeps rising, and the inventory of styrene in East China port is 75000 tons, increasing month on month. Tianjin Dagu styrene plant plans to restart, domestic styrene supply increases synchronously, styrene inventory pressure is high, it is difficult to support the styrene market, downstream demand recovery is poor, market transactions are light, and the spot price of styrene continues to decline.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell broadly this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7750 yuan/ton (average price: 7472 yuan/ton), and at the weekend, the price of pure benzene was 6900-7050 yuan/ton (average price: 6967 yuan/ton). The average price fell 6.76% from last week and 8.57% from the same period last year. The market purchasing interest is general, the demand in the north is weak, and the factory is willing to ship. The supply side increased while the demand side declined, and the price fell continuously during the week.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10166 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10100 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. Downstream and middleman procurement slowed down, and merchants’ shipment was blocked. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market was 9350-10900 yuan/ton, and that of HIPS (polystyrene) was 10000-11600 yuan/ton.

EPS price is stable this week. Overall transaction weakened month on month. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 11025 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market price is weak. The manufacturer maintains a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand is sluggish.

At the beginning of November, the domestic ABS market was weak and the price gradually fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS was 12100 yuan/ton on October 30 and 12000 yuan/ton on November 7, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.83% and a year-on-year increase or decrease of – 29.82%. Recently, the load of ABS industry is high, and the plant commencement is generally maintained at a high level of 80% to 90%, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The market competition is strengthened, the pressure on suppliers is highlighted, and petrochemical plants have reduced the factory price to take delivery.

Recently, the pure benzene market fell, and the cost support was poor. Part of the downstream seasonal slack season, demand is expected to soften. On the whole, if the raw materials decline next week, the styrene market will follow suit.

Price trend

At the beginning of November, the domestic POM market trend was stable and small, and the price was maintained. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13800 yuan/ton on October 30 and 13700 yuan/ton on November 5, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.72% and a year-on-year increase or decrease of – 30.46%.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of November, the domestic market of POM was generally stable, and the price was mixed. Upstream methanol has risen recently, and POM cost end support is fair. In terms of industry load, the overall load of domestic POM industry enterprises is maintained at more than 90%. Some enterprises are overhauled within a week, and the supply is reduced in a narrow range. At the same time, the health incident affected the shipment and reception of goods in some regions, and some regions were in short supply; The factory price of POM in petrochemical plants has increased and decreased, but the increase is a little bit more, and the supplier’s positive effect is acceptable. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and the location is general. In terms of purchasing, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, the supply of goods at high prices is relatively resisted, and the overall demand is just in need. The merchant’s actual orders are mainly small orders. The smoothness of high price goods is average, and the merchants talk about it in a single way.

Future market forecast

At the beginning of November, the POM market operation was generally stable, and the upstream methanol increased to support the POM cost side. The load of POM industry is high. There are still maintenance plans for enterprises next week, and the supply is expected to be tightened. The demand of terminal enterprises is limited to follow up and change, and enterprises mainly digest inventory and purchase scattered small orders. At present, some parts of the market may have a tight supply due to shipping and other problems. In addition, the early supplier price adjustment will boost. It is expected that in the short term, the POM market will play a long and short game, and the price may still operate in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 3, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate is 6000 yuan/ton, which is 266 yuan/ton lower than October 30, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 6266 yuan/ton), a decrease of 4.26%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market situation this week was weak and fell by more than 4%. The main factors to lower the center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate come from the following two aspects:

First, in terms of demand, domestic downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate continued to be weak this week, and the terminal market was short of gas, so it was difficult to form effective support for dimethyl carbonate on the demand side.

Second, the supply side. It is understood that in the fourth quarter of 2022, multiple sets of dimethyl carbonate units are expected to be put into production. With the increase of supply, the supply pressure on the site will follow. Therefore, the supply side has not given enough support to the dicarboxylic acid market.

Therefore, in the case of weak supply and demand, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate continues to decline in the game. As of November 3, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 5900-6100 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 300-500 yuan/ton this week.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall domestic propylene oxide market was stable in November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9566.67 yuan/ton on November 2, a decrease of 5.28% compared with October 1 (10,100.00).

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall trading and investment atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is light, the supply and demand transmission is slow, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

In October, the domestic EVA market trend was weak, and the price fell, showing a trend of first stabilizing and then falling. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20666.67 yuan/ton on October 1, and 19833.33 yuan/ton on October 27. The monthly drop was 4.03%, 18.04% lower than the same period last year.

In October, the domestic EVA market was mainly weak, showing a trend of first stabilizing and then falling. There was a lack of positive support in the month. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises was relatively firm in the first half of the month, and decreased continuously in the second half of the month. After returning from the National Day holiday, the EVA market was dominated by horizontal consolidation, and there was no significant fluctuation for the time being. However, in the second half of the month, petrochemical enterprises continuously lowered the ex factory price, coupled with a sharp drop in the supply of goods for auction, which brought significant pressure on the market. In terms of demand, there is no obvious change in the demand for photovoltaic materials. The demand for foaming materials is poor. The downstream multi-dimensional companies need to purchase rigid materials. The market trading atmosphere is light. Businessmen are pessimistic and prices follow the trend of weakening.

In a word, the current market is not obviously favorable. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises is stable for the time being, but the follow-up of terminal demand is insufficient. The downstream is cautious, and Duowei holds to make up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the domestic EVA market price in November will still have a downward trend.

In October, the domestic methanol market rose unilaterally. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol market in East China in early October was 3012 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 2790 yuan/ton. The price fell by 7.38% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 14.07%, down 16.72% year on year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in October 2022, there were 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose month on month, including 5 kinds of commodities that rose more than 5%, accounting for 38.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were diesel (12.09%), gasoline (10.91%) and dimethyl ether (7.04%). There were 4 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 23.1% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three decline products were LNG (-9.63%), WTI crude oil (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-5.90%). The average rise and fall this month was 1.84%.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of October 31:

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

Shanxi Province, 2600 yuan/ton

Liaoning, about 2680-2720 yuan/ton

Fujian, 2830-2850 yuan/ton

In the two lakes region, about 2850-2985 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2850-2940 yuan/ton

In Henan, about 2680-2700 yuan/ton

At the beginning of this month, the domestic methanol market in East China fell back. Before the National Day, due to the availability of goods before the festival and the tight supply and demand in some regions, the domestic methanol market price rose sharply, and the port price broke the 3000 yuan/ton mark. With the increase of arrival and inventory in some regions, as well as the consumption of pre holiday stock in downstream areas after the holiday, the methanol price market has turned “upside down”. After the festival, the domestic methanol market continued to decline unilaterally, and the quotations of manufacturers were also lowered for many times. The market atmosphere was “calm”.

In the first ten days of this month, the domestic methanol market in East China rose in shock, crude oil ran in shock, and coal prices were strong to support production costs. In terms of spot goods, the supply in the domestic mainland market increased, and the port market continued to de stock mainly. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market is good. The quotation in some regions is adjusted in a narrow range, but the adjustment range is not large. The mainstream transaction is stable.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic methanol market in East China fell, some newly put into production units shipped, coupled with tight logistics, rising freight rates and the general mood of downstream customers, the methanol market fell again.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in October 2022, there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have risen month on month, including 3 kinds of commodities that have risen more than 5%, accounting for 23.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (10.58%), Brent crude oil (10.14%) and dimethyl ether (8.27%). There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 5 kinds of commodities that declined more than 5%, accounting for 38.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products of decline were LNG (-18.93%), petroleum coke (-8.97%) and methanol (-7.39%). The average rise and fall this month was – 1.6%.

In terms of external market, as of October 31, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 367.50-368.50/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 99.75-100.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 346.50-347.50 euros/ton, up 0.25 euros/ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 367.50-368.50 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 99.75-100.75 cents/gallon, 0 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 346.50-347.50 euros/ton, 0.25 euros/ton

The support of coal price may weaken in the near future, and the contradiction between supply and demand will hardly change significantly in the short term. Methanol analysts from the business community predicted that the methanol market might be weak in November.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 31 was 94.36, unchanged from yesterday, 15.38% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market declined slightly in October. At the beginning of the month, it was reported as 15471.43 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was reported as 15428.57 yuan/ton, with a downward adjustment of 0.28%. The water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, stopped production for about 10 days from the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements in the early stage of this month; In the last ten days of the year, the construction was resumed, and the inventory was sufficient. Recently, many places are under strict control due to public health incidents, which has a certain impact on production and marketing. The cost of raw material acrylonitrile rose sharply, while acrylic acid rose first and then fell. Due to the general downstream demand and sufficient stock, the overall market of polyacrylamide did not change much, but fluctuated slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile has been rising every week, except for a slight drop in the middle of September. The price of acrylonitrile continued to rise in October. As of 31, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 10,890 yuan/ton, 10.33% higher than the price of 9870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the supply side pressure of acrylonitrile is not big in the short term, on the other hand, the demand continues to just need support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data from the business community, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in October, with the overall trend declining. As of October 31, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 8200.00 yuan/ton, 3.53% lower than the price on October 1, 14.29% lower than the same period last year in a three-month period, and 56.38% lower than the same period last year. At present, the cost support is general. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, market trading is orderly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 18.93% this month: the market price of LNG on October 31 was about 5540 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the first day was 6834 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, due to the transportation obstruction, the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak in the middle of the month, and the upstream shipment pressure was high, so the market fell back. According to the analysis, the current intra market trading and investment are flat, the traffic is blocked under the control of the epidemic situation, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to fall mainly in the short term under the negative factors.

Future market forecast: the economy is declining, demand is weak, and this year’s market is not as good as the same period of previous years. Affected by low orders and sufficient inventory, the rise of raw material acrylonitrile did not drive the rise of polyacrylamide. Even if the manufacturer stopped work for more than ten days, the inventory was still rich. Judging from the current situation, the heating season is coming, and the market will remain stable and weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, on October 1, the reference average price of 85% domestic industrial thermal phosphoric acid was 10160 yuan/ton, and on October 28, the reference average price of 85% domestic industrial thermal phosphoric acid was 9840 yuan/ton. The domestic phosphoric acid price fell 3.15% this month.

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9650 yuan/ton on October 1, and the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9350 yuan/ton on October 28. The price of domestic wet process phosphoric acid fell 3.11% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market rose first and then fell in October, with a decline of 3.15% in the month. In the first half of October, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus rose, with strong cost support. The phosphoric acid market rose with the fluctuation of raw materials. The downstream just needs replenishment, and the delivery is good. In the second half of October, the price of raw yellow phosphorus was stable and the cost support was average. There was no good news on the floor. The manufacturers and dealers operated cautiously, and the industry was in a wait-and-see mood. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with stable delivery and investment. As of October 28, the average market price of 85 content industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China was about 9840 yuan/ton, and the average market price of 85 content wet process phosphoric acid in China was about 9350 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 9400-9900 yuan/ton, and the market quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85 content WPA in Hubei is about 8900 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is about 9800 yuan/ton.

Raw phosphate rock market. The overall domestic phosphorus ore market fell slightly this month. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock yard came from the continuous tension of the supply side, and the offer of the operators was multi-dimensional and stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan reduced the price of the phosphate rock market slightly, with a reduction rate of about 10 yuan/ton. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. The yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this month. At present, the market trading and investment situation is average. Overall, it rose slightly. After the National Day holiday, yellow phosphorus moved upward, and after a small rise, the market weakened. Downstream picking up slowed down, inquiries increased, actual transaction was cautious, and yellow phosphorus market price fell back. In the second half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable, and the manufacturers had a strong desire to support the price. Most manufacturers’ quotations were firm or suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market declined. Up to now, the manufacturer’s quotation is 37000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiated on a single basis.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believed that the trend of raw yellow phosphorus in October was stable after rising, and the cost support was weakened. Influenced by raw materials, the phosphoric acid market rose and fell. At present, downstream procurement is on demand, and the industry is in a wait-and-see mood, with phosphoric acid trending downward. Under the current situation that the market is not favorable, it is expected that the weak phosphoric acid market will be dominated in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 6425.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 6162.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.09%. The current price rose by 8.59% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In October, the domestic potassium nitrate market showed a downward trend. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market has declined for three consecutive months since 2022. This is mainly because the domestic potassium manufacturers have normal supply, and the price has fallen more than once. The port stock is piled up and the shipment speed is slow. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, the market transaction was relatively cold, and the market for potassium nitrate declined. According to the statistics of the business community, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 6200-6500 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in October. At present, the sales price of domestic potassium in the market is mostly 3550-3800 yuan/ton. The price of 57% powder in Qinghai small factories is 3400-3600 yuan/ton, and the price of 62% Russian white potassium in border trade areas is 3550-3650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The price of 62% white potassium at the port is mostly 3650-3900 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton at the low end). The price of large particles at the port is mostly 3750-3850 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

At present, the domestic potash fertilizer market has a flat trend, with large domestic and port supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 26, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton. In October, the price of DMF fell, from 8850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7175 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in October was 18%. At the end of October, the DMF price had an upward trend and a stronger trend. It is expected that the DMF will be stronger in November. At present, the mainstream price of DMF is about 7000 yuan/ton.

In the first ten days of September, as of October 13, the domestic DMF price had been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range was 8500 yuan/ton, and the transaction atmosphere was fair. The negotiation atmosphere was general. The manufacturer gave up profits and took orders, and the shipment was smooth. The downstream rigid needs to purchase mainly.

In the middle and late September, as of October 21, the domestic DMF price had been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range was 7275.00 yuan/ton, which continued to decline compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation atmosphere was general. The manufacturers gave up profits and took orders. The shipment was smooth, the operating rate was stable, and the downstream rigid needs to purchase mainly.

Chemical commodity index: On October 25, the chemical index was 973 points, down 9 points from yesterday, down 30.50% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.71% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to DMF analysts from Business Agency, the DMF market is expected to run strongly in November, and the price will rise.