Price trend

PP market is relatively negative in the second half of 2022. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic PP wire drawing materials was 8608.33 yuan/ton on July 1, which is also the highest point in the second half of 2022. Since then, the price has fluctuated and fell. By November 22, it had fallen below the 8000 mark. The price was 7883.33 yuan/ton, a half year decline of 8.42%, 5.31% lower than the price in the same period last year.

Cause analysis

Macro aspect: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the weakening of international crude oil, and other multiple factors have deepened the pattern of high inflation in the global economy. The macro negative economic environment has long weighed on the PP industry chain.

In terms of raw materials, far upstream international crude oil fell in the second half of the year, and the cost end support of oil based PP and propylene based polypropylene gradually weakened. The adjustment of domestic propane market was weak in the second half of the year, and the amplitude gradually narrowed. The methanol market rose sharply after finishing and running, and the cost support of PDH and FMTP was weak and strong within half a year. In the second half of the year, the polypropylene raw material side rose and fell, and the overall support for the PP cost side was weak.

Supply: China’s PP industry has expanded rapidly in recent years. Since 2018, the average annual capacity growth rate in China has been 10.27%. As of October this year, 2.8 million tons of new production has been put into production, and the total PP production capacity has reached 34.87 million tons. In the long run, the supply is expected to remain loose. In the second half of 2022, the average monthly unit load of the industry is 78.05%, and the average monthly output is stable at about 55.73 tons. In terms of inventory, except for rapid inventory removal during the peak consumption season of “Jinjiu”, the inventory in other months is mainly accumulated, and the effect of inventory removal this month is fair. In the second half of the year, the supply side was under great pressure, which dragged down the spot price.

Demand: In the second half of 2022, the PP terminal factory will generally maintain production in terms of goods, and the weak and strong need to follow up. Although the demand in the peak season of September this year arrived as expected, the horizontal comparison of consumption over the years was slightly inferior. The confidence of downstream operators is not strong, and the stocking operation is cautious and conservative. The raw material inventory level of downstream plastic knitting enterprises and BOPP enterprises, the main force of wire drawing materials, is gradually reduced.

The load of non-woven fabric enterprises downstream of fiber material and melt blown PP was stable at more than 45% within half a year, the digestion speed of end products was stable, and the profit of enterprises fluctuated in a narrow range. In the second half of the year, the situation of international health events in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown fabric materials and strong market competition. The market of fiber materials and melt blown materials is consistent with the overall market of polypropylene.

Future market forecast

In the second half of 2022, the macro inflationary economic environment will not change, and the profits of petrochemical enterprises will shrink due to its impact. As a whole, the upstream raw materials have weakened their support for PP. In the past six months, most of the market prices have been guided by the fundamentals of the supply and demand game. At present, the PP industry chain is full of empty space, and the mentality of practitioners is not strong. Downstream activities tend to be conservative, and the market momentum is average. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, mainly for consolidation and operation.

This week, DOTP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the average price of DOTP was 9900 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the average price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on November 13. The price of raw materials rose in shock, while the DOTP rose in shock.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose

According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol rose sharply this week. As of November 21, the price of isooctanol was 9366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.18% from 9166.67 yuan/ton on November 13. The inventory of isooctanol was low, and the cost rose. The market was supported by a certain amount of good news, and the price of isooctanol rose in shock.

According to the data of the business community, as of November 21, the PTA price was 5713.33 yuan/ton, down 1.38% from the price of 5793.33 yuan/ton on November 13. The low level of international crude oil prices was adjusted by shocks, PTA costs decreased, PTA supply and demand were relatively balanced, PTA prices fell by shocks, and the upward momentum of DOTP was weakened.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business agency believed that the raw material isooctanol rose in shock this week, PTA prices fell slightly in shock, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials rebounded in shock. DOTP cost support still exists, and it is expected that DOTP will become stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC calcium carbide method SG5 operated in shock this week. On the whole, the price decreased slightly. The average domestic PVC price at the beginning of the week was 6028.57 yuan/ton, the average weekend price was 6022.86 yuan/ton, and the price decreased 0.09% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC calcium carbide method SG5 was put into operation in shock, and the overall price decreased slightly. At present, the overall trading and investment situation of the market is relatively light, the actual transaction situation of the spot market is general, the enthusiasm of downstream customers is weak, the market confidence is insufficient, the actual transaction is more cautious, and the demand is strong. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5550-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply on November 17. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 89.87 dollars/barrel, down 3.08 dollars or 3.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell from 3700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3683.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.45%. The upstream carbon price was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that PVC fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decline. The upstream carbide decreased slightly. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase is mainly based on demand, and the new order transaction is cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market price will fluctuate and consolidate. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market recovered in the middle of November, and the price rose by more than 4% compared with the beginning of the month. On November 4, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 823 yuan/ton, and on November 17, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 860 yuan/ton, up 4.45%.

The demand for hydrogen peroxide rose sharply

After November 4, the decline of terminal caprolactam market slowed down, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased, supporting the rise of hydrogen peroxide price. Among them, orders from some manufacturers increased and prices rose steadily. The hydrogen peroxide market of other manufacturers is mainly stable. The overall fluctuation of domestic hydrogen peroxide market is relatively strong. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is about 780 yuan/ton, and that in Anhui is about 950 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

Hydrogen peroxide analysts from the business community believe that the terminal paper industry is in a downturn, and hydrogen peroxide is still under pressure after rising.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 16, 2022, the market price reference of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 5933 yuan/ton, which was down 50 yuan/ton, or 0.56%, compared with November 9, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5983 yuan/ton). On November 16, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 5700-6100 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the near future (11.9-11.16), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak and running downward. The trading atmosphere in the market is light, and downstream demand is cautious. Some factories have slightly reduced the price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, at present, the downstream of dimethyl carbonate mainly continues to purchase just in need, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, the turnover of new orders is low, and the demand side gives insufficient support to the dimethyl carbonate market.

In terms of supply, in the fourth quarter, the domestic supply side of dimethyl carbonate had sufficient capacity. With more supply side growth, the pressure from the supply side also increased. Therefore, the market support for dimethyl carbonate from the supply side was also weak.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall trading and investment of dimethyl carbonate in the plant is cold, and the support from both sides of supply and demand is ordinary. According to the dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly weak, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 15, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 170000 yuan/ton, up 3.03% compared with the same period last week. The overall market was stable and strong. At present, the operating rate is stable, the procurement atmosphere is general, and the mainstream price range is about 170000 yuan/ton. The main target is contract customers, and new customers do not take orders.

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 170000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong, and the price range is maintained at 170000 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream just needs procurement, and the operating rate is stable. The overall market of lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong. The manufacturer supplies only old customers, but the number of new customers is limited. As of November 15, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been lowered, and the operation is weak. The industrial market price is 585000 yuan/ton, The battery level market price is 595000 yuan/ton.

Chemical commodity index: On November 14, the chemical index was 943 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 32.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.69% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

Analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community believe that the LiFePO4 market will operate stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price was consolidated at a low level this week. The average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China this week was 9666.67 yuan/ton. On November 13, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 46.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.03% from the highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22) in the cycle, and up 0.34% from the lowest point of 46.43 on November 4, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable this week

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.88%. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future market forecast

Neopentyl glycol market trend in the middle and late November may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market declined slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi at the beginning of the week was 9237.50 yuan/ton, and the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi at the weekend was 9162.50 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the current price rose 13.82% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been declining recently, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. Recently, the domestic potassium manufacturers have started to operate more units than in the early stage, and the inventory in the plant is sufficient. The downstream demand is not good, and the purchase of just needed goods is maintained. The transactions in the potassium carbonate market are light, and the market fluctuates and falls. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate mainstream factory this week is about 9000-9200 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fallen, the supply of potassium chloride is abundant, and the market turnover is poor. At present, the sales price of 60% domestic potassium crystals in the market is 3450-3800 yuan/ton. The price of 57% powder in Qinghai small factories is 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 62% Russian white potassium in border trade areas is 3300-3400 yuan/ton. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is 3600-3750 yuan/ton. The price of large particles at the port is mostly 3550-3650 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

In the near future, the overall trend of domestic potash fertilizer market is weak, the supply of potassium chloride exceeds the demand, and the cost support is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

On November 9, the average price of polyformaldehyde production in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week. A year-on-year decrease of 24.88%.

Chart of market price trend of methanol polyoxymethylene

Upstream methanol: the market in East China rebounded at a low level, and the transaction was fair. Futures stopped falling and rebounded, production facilities of major enterprises in some regions stopped, supply decreased, and market buying improved. The logistics in some regions is limited but the demand is weak, and the downstream receiving price is weak.

Recently, the methanol market has a callback trend, and the cost support is good. However, the transportation in Shandong is not smooth, and the market transaction is not good. The polyformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price may rise slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average offer price of PC domestic sample enterprises was 18433.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and the domestic price was 18116.67 yuan/ton on November 8. The range of decline was -1.72%, up and down by -4.31% compared with the price on October 1.

Cause analysis

The global high inflation macro-economy has continued to affect the petrochemical industry chain, but the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase and slowdown has been released recently, and the negative side of the market is less than expected. In addition, the international crude oil production reduction plan was announced. Last week, crude oil rebounded after falling, and PC macro environment and remote costs supported the recovery.

In terms of raw materials: from the figure above, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market continued to be weak in November, and the price continued to fall. At present, from the macro perspective of the chemical industry, the overall situation shows a downward trend. Bisphenol A’s own industrial chain is also in a downward trend, and the support of the industry fundamentals is absent. As of November 7, in the morning, a petrochemical company in East China had bid for first class and superior products at a starting price of 11800 yuan/ton and 11900 yuan/ton. The East China market had implemented an offer of about 12000-12100 yuan/ton, and the on-site negotiations were sluggish. There are few active inquiries in the market. In the short term, the market lacks of advantages.

In terms of supply: Recently, the utilization rate of PC capacity has continued to decline, and the total load of domestic PC enterprises has dropped from more than 55% to nearly 45% within one month. As the industry neared the end of the year, the maintenance was gradually concentrated, and the supply side was significantly tightened. However, the flow of goods in the market is slow, which has hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing.

Demand: the actual demand of PC downstream before did not match the traditional peak season, and the actual demand was less than that of previous years. However, at the end of the current traditional demand season, the terminal enterprises started down, and just needed to support the overall decline. There is little trading on the market, and the actual orders are mainly scattered small orders. Buyers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for preparing goods is poor.

Future market forecast

In the first ten days of November, the PC market fell, the upstream bisphenol A was weak and difficult to change, and the support for PC cost collapsed. The load of domestic polymerization plants is lower, and the supply side has a good profit and is still expected to decline in the short term. In terms of demand, it has weakened synchronously, and the rigid demand support has weakened. The smoothness of goods delivery of merchants is low, and most of them have the operation of making profit order. In general, the supply reduction of PC failed to offset the negative impact, and the market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand and cost collapse. However, the near low spot price will certainly stimulate buying, and it is expected that the recent decline in PC market will narrow and stabilize.