According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 29 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) fluctuated slightly in the second half of November (16-29). On the 16th, it was reported as 15471.43 yuan/ton, and on the 29th, it was reported as 15471.43 yuan/ton. The highest price in the stage was 15514.29 yuan/ton on the 18th, the lowest was 15442.86 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and the maximum amplitude in the half month was only 0.46%. In the second half of this month, the central heating season began in the north. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products decreased sharply. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The raw material acrylonitrile market fell slightly at a high level, the acrylic acid market was stable, the polyacrylamide market was not supported enough, and the market was flat, stable and slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market that has been going up since the beginning of September reached a stage price peak of 11590 yuan/ton around November 15, and then turned around and went down, with a decline of 8.51% by 10600 yuan/ton on November 29. The golden nine silver ten peak season has passed. With the downstream construction declining and the resistance to the high price of acrylonitrile, the high price of listing has fallen back. In addition, public health events have spread in many places, the demand for acrylonitrile has weakened compared with the previous period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the second half of November (16-29) was down in a volatile manner. On the 29th, the market reported 7366.67 yuan/ton, down 8.30% from 8033.33 yuan/ton on the 16th. It fell 0.45% in a three-month cycle, down 56.67% compared with the same period last year. The atmosphere of downstream procurement was light. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fluctuated, and the cost was still supported. The plant load was slightly adjusted, the operating rate declined compared with the previous period, and the market supply shrank. However, the downstream operating load was also not high, the purchasing mentality was cautious, the market atmosphere was flat, and the price fell first and then stabilized. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the price of domestic LNG fell by 7.57% in the second half of November (16-29), including 4414 yuan/ton on the 16th and 4126 yuan/ton on the 29th. Recently, due to the weakening of cost support, on-site supply exceeds demand, terminal demand release is limited, and the LNG market continues to decline. The new raw gas auction is about to start, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the LNG market will consolidate and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in cost side and downstream demand.

Future forecast: due to the impact of public health events in many places across the country, sealing and control management, and the cold weather, the downstream demand for construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid are not supported. Lacking favorable impetus, the market will remain stable and weak in the future.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the supply and demand relationship. The price of raw material pure benzene was lowered, and the cost support was average. The supply of commodities is stable and abundant, but the downstream demand is weak, the market shipping resistance is large, and the transaction center is falling.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, from November 28 to December 5, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market fell from 9466 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.76%, and the price fell 3.93% month on month and 4.45% year on year.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 5:

Region./Price

East China./8800-9000 yuan/ton cash transfer to

South China./9000-92000 yuan/ton cash transfer to

Shandong region./8600-8700 yuan/ton spot exchange sent to

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene rebounded after falling. East China spot traded at 6300-6630 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Downstream caprolactam: caprolactam market fell. The prices of upstream crude oil and pure benzene fell, and the listing of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered to 6500 yuan/ton, with the cost continuing to be weak. Although some supply on the supply side has decreased, with the decrease of terminal demand, downstream polymerization commencement has declined, the demand for caprolactam has weakened, the overall supply pattern is loose, and the price center has declined.

The cost side is surging, the cost side support is still stable, the supply of cyclohexanone commodity is slightly oversupply, and the market may weaken in a narrow range. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market was weak.

The domestic aggregate MDI market demand is insufficient, and the market is narrow. The monthly settlement prices of manufacturing enterprises have been announced successively, which are significantly lower than that of last month. The market atmosphere is relatively low, the downstream demand is poor, the market situation is weak and difficult to change, and the traders’ quotations are down. As of December 5, the mainstream offer price of domestic Wanhua goods (PM200) was 13800-14000 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) was 13600-13800 yuan/ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 28 to December 5, the domestic aggregate MDI market price fell from 14460 yuan/ton to 14240 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.52%, a month on month drop of 5.07% and a year-on-year drop of 25.29%.

According to the price rise and fall chart of the polymerized MDI industrial chain products of the business community, the products with the price decline of the polymerized MDI industrial chain during the cycle include aniline (- 27.52%), formaldehyde (- 4.1%), polymerized MDI (- 5.07%) and spandex (- 5.26%).

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 5:

Region./Wanhua Goods./Shanghai Goods

East China/13800-14100 yuan/ton above/13500-13600 yuan/ton

North China/. 13900-14000 yuan/ton nearby/. 13400-13600 yuan/ton

South China/. 13800-14000 yuan/ton/. 13500-13600 yuan/ton

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene rebounded after falling. East China spot traded at 6300-6630 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Aniline: The business community monitored the price fluctuation of the domestic aniline market, which was 10437 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10596 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.53% in the cycle.

The downstream consumption capacity is weak, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant. Business agency MDI analysts expect that the domestic MDI market will be mainly on the sidelines.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3833 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3883 yuan/ton, up 1.30%.

The price of potassium sulfate in China keeps rising. Supported by raw materials and costs, the market price of potassium sulfate has generally increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of 52% of processed Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3850-3950 yuan/ton, and the price of granular potassium sulfate is mostly 3900-4050 yuan/ton. It is difficult to find a single product of granular potassium sulfate. The production of resource potassium sulfate is acceptable. The market price of 52% of SDIC’s potassium sulfate powder is about 3800 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high. The actual order will be discussed again.

The operating rate of downstream plants has been increasing, and the price of potash fertilizer market has continued to increase. Under the influence of the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, most small and medium-sized traders have successively built positions. The demand side has a certain support, focusing on the downstream market transactions.

Forecast: The current market demand is slightly supported, but the future market lacks good prospects. It is expected that the potash fertilizer market will be dominated by shock consolidation trend in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 30 was 94.70, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 15.07% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.25% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market rose first, then fell, and then rose again in November, with a slight monthly fluctuation of 0.46%: the market reported 15428.57 yuan/ton on the first day, and 15500 yuan/ton on the 30th day; The highest price in this month was 15514.29 yuan/ton around the 18th, and the lowest was 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with the maximum amplitude of only 0.56%. In the first half of this month, the manufacturer started work normally, the inventory was sufficient, the downstream demand was light, the raw material acrylonitrile market reached the peak in the early middle of the month, and the polyacrylamide market rose slightly, with some stable; In the second half of the month, the central heating season began in the north. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products decreased sharply. Water treatment enterprises in Henan, the main domestic production area, have limited transportation and weak demand; The raw material acrylonitrile market fell slightly at a high level, the acrylic acid market was stable, the polyacrylamide market was not supported enough, and the market was flat, stable and slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market that has been going up since the beginning of September mainly reported 10970 yuan/ton on November 1, reached the peak of 11590 yuan/ton on or about November 15, and then turned around and went down, to 10500 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a monthly decline of 4.28% and the maximum amplitude of 9.40%. The golden nine silver ten peak season has passed. With the downstream construction declining and the resistance to the high price of acrylonitrile, the high price of listing has fallen back. In addition, public health events have spread in many places, the demand for acrylonitrile has weakened compared with the previous period. On the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, on the other hand, the demand is weak at present; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data from the business community, the acrylic acid market in November was down by shock. On the 30th, the market reported 7366.67 yuan/ton, down 10.16% from 8200 yuan/ton on the first day. The atmosphere of downstream purchase was light. In the first half of the month, the price of propylene as raw material increased mainly, the cost support was strengthened, and some units were overhauled. However, downstream procurement was just needed, and the market atmosphere was weak. After the market fell, the market was stable. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fluctuated, and the cost was still supported. The plant load was slightly adjusted, and the operating rate declined compared with the previous period. The market supply shrank. The downstream operating load was also not high. The purchasing mentality was cautious, the market atmosphere was flat, and the price fell first and then stabilized. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic LNG on November 1 was 5450 yuan/ton, and the average market price on November 30 was 4514 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 17.17%, of which the largest drop this month was – 7.16% in the week of November 21. This month, the supply of domestic LNG market exceeded the demand, and the high liquid price began to cover the drop. In some areas, due to snow weather and epidemic control, transportation is blocked. Enterprises cut prices one after another to digest inventory. Market demand is weak and trading is flat. However, at the end of the month, domestic cold air hit, and demand increased slightly. Most liquid plants were still paying high prices. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to rise in the short term.

Future forecast: due to the impact of public health events in many places across the country, sealing and control management, and the cold weather, the downstream demand for construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid are not supported. Lacking favorable impetus, the market will remain stable and weak in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in November

According to the data of the business community, as of November 29, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 12200 yuan/ton, 825 yuan/ton higher than the price of 11175 yuan/ton on November 1, or 9.17%. The cost rose, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in November.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose slightly in November. As of November 29, the price of fluorite had risen by 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the price of 3175 yuan/ton on November 1, and 9.09% higher than the price of 2956.25 yuan/ton on October 30; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November. As of November 29, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12242.86 yuan/ton, up 10.30% from 11100 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid soared, the cost of aluminum fluoride continued to rise, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride increased.

Downstream electricity price aluminum price rises sharply

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of aluminum electrolysis in November was 19050 yuan/ton, up 5.50% from 18056.67 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, the downstream electrolytic aluminum price rose sharply, the demand for aluminum fluoride rose, and the impetus for aluminum fluoride to rise increased.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the business community, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose in shock, and the demand for aluminum fluoride rose. The overall aluminum fluoride cost rose and the demand was favorable. The momentum for aluminum fluoride to rise was increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride in the future will rise in shock.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the acrylonitrile market rose and fell in November. As of November 28, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10760 yuan/ton, 1.91% lower than 10970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The monthly peak is 11590 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.71%. In November, the listing price of acrylonitrile enterprises rose sharply in the early stage, and fell back in the late stage as the downstream construction started and the acrylonitrile enterprises resisted the high price of acrylonitrile; The market offer follows the trend of the market. As of November 28, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile market in East China was 10200~11000 yuan/ton.

Although the Kruer acrylonitrile unit stopped for a short time in this month, the acrylonitrile industry has both new units put into production and multiple plants increased their load. In November, the supply of acrylonitrile continued to be loose.

In November, the raw propylene market rose significantly, and the cost of acrylonitrile rose. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the domestic propylene price was 7436 yuan/ton, up 5.68% from 7036 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of November, Shandong market was affected by domestic public health events, which led to blocked enterprise shipments, poor on-site transportation, and low end prices falling below 7000 yuan/ton. In the second week of November, the market hit the bottom and rebounded. On the one hand, logistics recovered gradually, and propylene enterprises moved smoothly. On the other hand, low prices stimulated the enthusiasm of downstream procurement to improve. Proper replenishment and restart of downstream devices led to a rapid rise in the price of propylene in Shandong to 7300 yuan/ton. From the middle of the month to the end of the month, due to the price rise and the lack of downstream purchasing stamina, the propylene market began to fluctuate and stabilize, and the market supply and demand did not change much. As of November 25, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7300 yuan/up and down.

The golden nine and silver ten peak seasons have passed, and COVID-19 has distributed in many places. In November, the downstream ABS, acrylamide/polyacrylamide and other industries of acrylonitrile started to decline; Acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industry started to maintain stability, and the demand for acrylonitrile was weaker than in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that, on the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, and on the other hand, the current demand is weak; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall in the later period.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 25, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8783.33 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from Monday.

Epichlorohydrin market rose slightly this week. From the perspective of supply and demand: the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with the previous period. Jiangsu’s large factories have raised the ex factory price, which has boosted the manufacturers’ price mentality. In addition, some enterprises have moderate purchasing enthusiasm, and the market quotation has a tentative small increase. However, the downstream market has insufficient mentality. Procurement is mainly based on small orders, and the market transaction atmosphere is flat.

From the upstream and downstream perspective: in the near future, the raw material propylene is mainly stable, the raw material glycerin is stable, and the cost is still supported by epichlorohydrin. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 16733.33 on November 25, a decrease of 9.22% compared with November 1 (18433.33), which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

The epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community believe that the current cost impact is limited, and the supply side is expected to shrink, but the demand side is not following up enough. The demand side is mainly cautious, and the demand side temporarily dominates the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and stabilized this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the DBP price was 9800 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with 9800 yuan/ton on November 18. Raw material support remains, and DBP prices are strong and stable this week.

The price of DBP raw materials fluctuated and stabilized

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8887.50 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from 9150 yuan/ton on November 18. This week, the phthalic anhydride plant was restarted, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The phthalic anhydride price fell, and the downward pressure on DBP remained.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the price of n-butanol was 7566.67 yuan/ton, up 2.25% from 7400 yuan/ton on November 18. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was stable, the industry remained strong, the price of n-butanol rose in shock, and the support of DBP cost rise remained.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the business community, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell in shock, while the price of n-butanol rose in shock. The overall cost of DBP raw materials stabilized, and the DBP cost support remained. It is expected that the DBP price will stabilize in shock in the future.

The domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, mainly due to supply and demand. The supply is abundant, but the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2799 yuan/ton to 2793 yuan/ton from November 14 to 21 (as of 10:00 a.m.). During the cycle, the price dropped by 0.31%, 3.48% month on month and 1.64% year on year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2833 yuan/ton to 2793 yuan/ton from November 14 to 20. During the cycle, the price fell by 1.41%, 3.12% month on month and 1.64% year on year.

As of the closing of November 18, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had fluctuated at a high level. The MA2301 contract was opened at 2535 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2500 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2598 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of the MA2301 contract was 1.1163 million hands, down 3400 hands from the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions by 11.18:

Region,. Price

Shanxi,. 2480-2490 yuan/ton

Liaoning, about 2670 yuan/ton

In Anhui, about 2740-2800 yuan/ton

Henan Province,. 2550 yuan/ton

The price of products in the methanol industry chain is up and down, the price of products in the methanol industry chain is up and down, the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol is stable, the price of coal is down, and the support for methanol cost is weaker; The price of downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; The price of urea in Shandong Province rose the most among related products.

In terms of external market, as of November 18, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 364.50-365.50/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 93.75-94.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 317.75-318.75 euros/ton, down 0.5 euros/ton.

Region../Country./Closing Price./Up and Down

Asia./CFR Southeast Asia./364.50-365.50 USD/ton./- 2 USD/ton

Europe and America./American Gulf./93.75-94.75 cents/gallon./- 1 minute/gallon

Europe./FOB Rotterdam./317.75-318.75 EUR/ton./-0.5 EUR/ton

There is abundant supply and little change in demand. The transportation in some areas is not smooth. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak ones.