1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 29, the average price of domestic LNG was 6060 yuan/ton, which was higher than the average price of 4900 yuan/ton on December 1. The domestic LNG price rose by 23.67% this month.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from October 3, 2022 to December 25, 2022 that the domestic LNG rose a lot in December, and the maximum decline in December was 23.39% in the week of December 5

 
In December, domestic LNG rose first and then fell. The cost of the liquid plant increased due to the rise of feed gas price. In the first half of December, the price of domestic LNG rose sharply, breaking 8000 yuan/ton. In the second half of December, domestic LNG prices began to decline at a high level. Downstream demand support is weak, and the market continues to fall. Market supply exceeded demand, the bearish sentiment on the floor increased, and the high liquid price began to continue to cover the decline.

Mainstream market

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on December 29:

Region/ offer

Inner Mongolia/ 6000-6300

Shaanxi/ 5700-6400

Shanxi region/ 5900-6450

Ningxia/ 6200-6350

Henan/ 6500-7000

Sichuan/ 5900-6600

Shandong/ 6750-7100

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that the domestic LNG market is weak in recent days, with obvious oversupply in the market and lack of good support on the market. Tomorrow’s raw gas auction will increase the wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese in East China will drop sharply from January 1 to December 26, 2022, with the average price at the beginning of the year at 39500 yuan/ton and the average price at the end of the year at 17400 yuan/ton, down 55.95%. Looking at the 2022 trend chart of the East China market of electrolytic manganese, it can be found that the market is basically divided into three stages: the first stage is a period of high level consolidation, the second stage is a period of rapid decline, and the third stage is a period of post drop shock.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, in 2022, the labor force will rise in seven months and fall in four months, with the largest drop in March, down 51.59; The biggest increase was in January, up 6.01%.

The first stage of high level shock consolidation (January 1 to February 28)

At the beginning of the year, the trend of electrolytic manganese market continued to rise for 21 years. In the 22nd year, electrolytic manganese manufacturers began to implement their three-month production suspension and upgrading plan. Most of the manufacturers were out of production. The market news said that the overall production suspension plan in the 22nd year would actually reach about half a year. It was expected that the market supply would decrease in the future. The manufacturers had limited supplies, few quotations, strong reluctance to sell, and rising prices. In the middle of the year, the market was waiting for the guidance of the steel bidding. The overall wait-and-see mood was strong, and the market price was temporarily stable. After the last ten days of January, as the holiday is approaching, the market negotiation atmosphere is relatively light, the downstream purchase intention is low, most manufacturers have entered the holiday, the market demand starts to decline, and the price drops slightly. After the Spring Festival, most manufacturers are still in the holiday season, and there are few market quotations. Due to the shortage of goods in the market when manufacturers stop production, the overall turnover is limited. The whole February was significantly affected by the holiday, and the trend was volatile. At the end of February, the market mainstream price was 39000-39500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand sides had a strong game psychology.

Phase II rapid decline period (March 1 to May 31)

The trend of this stage is highly anticipated. In addition to the supply and demand factors, we also need to understand another major factor that affects the price of electrolytic manganese – electricity. The main steps of the production process of electrolytic manganese metal are “leaching — purification — electrolysis”. Manganese carbonate powder is used to react with inorganic acid to prepare a manganese salt solution. Ammonium salt is added as a buffer. Iron is removed by adding an oxidant for oxidation and neutralization. Sulfide is added to remove heavy metals. After “sedimentation filtration deep purification filtration”, pure manganese sulfate solution is obtained. Finally, it enters the electrolytic cell for electrolysis to produce metal manganese. From the above steps, it can be seen that in addition to the impact of raw materials, electric power is also an important factor affecting the production of electrolytic manganese. The electrolytic manganese manufacturers in China are mainly concentrated in Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangzhou, Hunan and other places. In addition to Ningxia, other areas are mainly water conservancy and power generation. The local water conservancy and power generation are greatly affected by the flood season and dry season, so the annual April October is usually the golden period for the production of electrolytic manganese. Other times are subject to the power situation, and the overall operating rate of manufacturers is low.

Since the beginning of March, the electrolytic manganese market has entered a month long downward channel. Since the introduction of Korean pricing at the end of February, it is far lower than the market expectation, which aggravates the bearish mentality of the market. After the introduction of the domestic steel bidding price, due to the unsatisfactory price, the market mentality was affected again, the spot market price continued to decline, and the factory price in the mainstream regions was significantly reduced, and some low price deals appeared in the market. At present, the main application of electrolytic manganese in the downstream is 200 series stainless steel. After experiencing the high price of electrolytic manganese caused by the joint production reduction and goods control of the electrolytic manganese alliance, the downstream receiving capacity has been significantly reduced. Most downstream manufacturers use waste stainless steel and low-carbon ferromanganese to replace them. As a result of this lack of demand, the price of steel bidding has been lowered again and again.

With the coming of April, the city is about to enter the peak season of electrolytic manganese production. At that time, the market expected that most manufacturers would have loose supply after returning to production in April. Therefore, the market saw a strong atmosphere and prices fell all the way down. Low price goods are frequently available, market confidence is affected, and transactions are limited under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. In late March, as the public health events in many places in China affected the transportation, the transportation of manganese products was blocked, which was once again bad for the market. There are many kinds of news in the market, the overall wait-and-see mood is heavy, the supply and demand game mentality is heavy, and the bearish mood prevails. Without the support of good news, the price further declines. Near the end of the month, after experiencing a long-term decline, the electrolytic manganese market entered a short period of stability. As the price became stable, market inquiries increased to a certain extent, but the mentality of buying up rather than buying down dominated the market transaction, which was not ideal. At the end of the month, the market had a steel bidding price of 17200 yuan/ton, which affected the market mentality again, and the market was weak.

The third stage is the post fall shock period (June 1 to December 26, 2022)

After entering June, after experiencing the previous sharp drop, the price has been at a relatively low level, the decline has basically slowed down, the overall price has fluctuated widely, the market atmosphere is still the overall weak consolidation, the downstream continues to maintain just need procurement, but the overall transaction situation is still normal, and the market trading is relatively cold. After entering winter, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, there is a certain reserve demand for electrolytic manganese. The market demand is large, and the market is expected to improve to a certain extent. The market price is slightly warmer, driving a wave of slightly warmer market at the end of the year.

In the future, the business community believes that, in general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. There is no actual increase in steel plant bidding, and the downstream demand is average. Although there is a certain amount of winter storage, it is difficult to provide long-term support to the market. In December, the overall supply was loose, which significantly affected the electrolytic manganese market. At present, the mainstream market quotation has dropped to 15800-16000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the overall electrolytic manganese market will be weak under the pattern of loose supply and weak demand in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of silicon manganese (specification: FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was 7862 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year, and 7275 yuan/ton (tax included) on December 21, down 7.47%. On the whole, it was between 7000-8500 yuan/ton of cash delivered in the year, and remained at a high level of more than 8000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it experienced a significant decline from 8000 yuan/ton to about 7200 yuan/ton in July. In the third and fourth quarters, the price fluctuated slightly, around 70,000-7300 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year was 6970 yuan/ton in August, and the highest point was 8537 yuan/ton in March. Future outlook: Inner Mongolia’s silicon manganese alloy enterprises will struggle to maintain in 2022, and the profit margin for the whole year will be low. Since December, the epidemic prevention and control policy has been continuously optimized, the travel code has been cancelled, the number of people infected has increased, and some silicon manganese alloy manufacturers across the country are facing the shortage of workers due to short-term diagnosis, and the difficulty in delivering iron. However, the market liquidity brought by the optimization of epidemic control is visible to the naked eye, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, the external environment has gradually improved, and the macro favorable policies have continued to work. In a comprehensive way, The future of silicon manganese market is expected in 2023.

Relevant data:

According to customs data, in October 2022, the total import of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 5000.026 tons, up 149.95% month on month and 312.38% year on week; In October 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 20,800.215 tons, down 11.36% month on month and 6.74% year on year (the export volume in October last year was 22,303.59 tons).

Price trend

In the middle of December, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and the price fluctuated. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price was 11,750 yuan/ton on December 20, with a range of – 0.42%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, the three upstream materials of ABS rose and fell respectively in mid December, and the overall performance was fair. Among them, acrylonitrile market rebounded narrowly after falling. Since December, the manufacturer’s listing price has been gradually lowered, and the merchant’s offer has declined. The price bottomed out in the middle of the year due to the enterprise’s independent load reduction and the gradual digestion of the supply of goods. However, the current supply pressure is still high, and the increase of acrylonitrile may be limited.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market continues to rise. After early consumption, traders have less supply of goods, which coincides with the periodic replenishment of some downstream markets, once driving spot prices higher. At present, Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is lagging behind in resuming its work, but other manufacturers are expected to increase their load. The downstream continues to meet the rigid demand, and it is difficult to get a good boost in the short term, so the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fall under pressure in the short term.

Recently, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen. The market of pure benzene was consolidated, and the cost support was average. Although the downstream is just in demand, the purchase intention is good, which has certain support for the market. The port inventory may have a small drop expectation, which is good for the styrene market. The short-term styrene market is expected to be dominated by gains.

In terms of supply: In mid December, the load of ABS industry was at a high level, and the current plant commencement was stable, and the on-site supply continued to be abundant. Enterprises are under a certain degree of supply pressure, and the ex factory price is under pressure.

Demand: At present, the stock of downstream factories, including the main terminal household appliances industry, has slightly warmed up, the stock demand in the market has been carried out before the festival, and the delivery has gradually improved. However, the buyer’s wait-and-see mood remained unchanged. The merchants followed the trend of the market, and the total inventory of ABS decreased slightly.

Future market forecast

Last week, the trend of the three upstream materials of ABS was mixed, and the support for ABS cost side was fair. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, with stable weekly output and pressure on the supply side. The improvement on the demand side is limited, and the seller’s offer is firm. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain consolidation and operation in the short term.

Last week (December 12-19), the price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall, and the cost side support was weak. During the week, viscose staple fiber enterprises were still mainly engaged in the implementation of early orders, and some downstream regions just needed replenishment, but most of the deals were made with low price small orders. The news of production reduction of a high-end large factory in China was announced, and the overall production of the Group was reduced by about 30%. From the perspective of the downstream human cotton yarn market, the price of human cotton yarn is weak and stable. Factories in some areas cut prices to promote sales. The market demand continues to be weak. The overall trading atmosphere is light, and the overall cotton mills have slightly increased their holiday closures.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber fell slightly last week (December 12-18). As of December 18, 2022, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 12880 yuan/ton; It dropped by 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.92%. The price of human cotton yarn is weak and stable. As of December 19, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price is 17466 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of the previous week.

Supply and demand

Last week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber industry was basically maintained. At present, the overall load of the industry is about 60.4%. This week, major factories began to reduce production, and the operating rate will decline. The demand for human cotton yarn continues to be weak, and the operating rate of the factory drops slightly. The manufacturer mainly makes shipments, and the overall delivery atmosphere is light. The downstream just needs a small amount of procurement. The weaving factory has arranged a Spring Festival holiday.

Future market forecast

A new round of price policy was introduced for viscose factories, and the production restriction policy was introduced for large factories. The overall price may be supported under the supply reduction. However, some yarn enterprises and terminal weaving factories have stopped work for holidays, and the market demand for raw materials has further decreased. Under the pressure of weak cost and weak demand, analysts of the business community expect the price of viscose staple fiber to be weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18833.33 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and up 1.85% from the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from the price of 25333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 24.23% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week, and the enterprise offer was stable as a whole. As of December 16, the price of raw material trichloromethane continued to decline in the month, with an overall decline of 1.59%. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with an overall increase of 0.22%. The cost of raw materials rose and fell with each other. The price of R22 moved forward steadily as a whole.

As of December 16, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid had been operating slightly and strongly, with an overall increase of 0.22%, while the price of trichloroethylene continued to decline in a weak way, with an overall decline of nearly 9% in the month. In general, the cost of upstream raw materials continued to decline, while the downstream had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the R134a price in the future would continue to bear pressure.

In terms of raw materials, in December, the domestic hydrofluoric acid was slightly stronger after its overall rise became stable, and the stabilizing price rise of hydrofluoric acid weakened the price support of domestic refrigerant R134a in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials fluctuated slightly, and R22 prices will continue to move forward steadily in the short term. Upstream raw material prices continue to be weak. Under the pressure of cost, domestic R134a prices still have some room to fall.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6800.00 yuan/ton as of December 15, up 1.49% from Monday.

The acrylic acid market rose steadily this week (12.12-12.15). Recently, the price of raw propylene has risen, and the cost pressure has increased. In addition, the load rate of the production enterprises is not high, the spot quantity is relatively small, the enthusiasm of market inquiry has increased, the negotiation is moderate and the price focus of acrylic acid has risen.

For upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7618.60 on December 14, up 2.47% compared with December 12 (7430.60).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, at present, the cost support is strong, the plant load is low, and the market transaction is more active than in the early stage, but the actual demand is still average. The cautious wait-and-see attitude still exists. It is expected that the acrylic market will operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3883 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3916 yuan/ton, up 0.86%.

The domestic potassium sulfate price is firm. Recently, the operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant has slightly increased, and the national average operating rate has exceeded 30%. At present, the factory price of 52% of Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly discussed. The demand of the northeast market is still concentrated on the granular potassium sulfate. The plant of resource based potassium sulfate manufacturers is still limited in operation. CITIC Guoan will resume production at the weekend. The production of SDIC Luoke is stable, and traders still have more supplies.

The supply of goods in the domestic potash fertilizer market is relatively concentrated, the production of domestic potash plants has decreased slightly, the recent resistance of railway transportation of goods sources is large, and the arrival of goods in various regions is limited. The marketable quantity of imported potassium is still limited, the signing of new orders for border trade is still unclear, and the growth of supply side is limited.

Forecast: Enquiries in the potash fertilizer market are increasing, the supply of goods is relatively concentrated, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by shock consolidation.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.2-12.9) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 186710 yuan/ton last weekend and 196410 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.02%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the figure above that tin prices will rise continuously after November 2022 due to macro factors.

Futures market situation this week

Variety./Closing price./Compared with the same period of last week./Inventory (ton)./Inventory change compared with last week (ton)

Shanghai Tin./198090 yuan/ton./+11190 yuan/ton./5696./+988

London tin./24165 dollars/ton./+595 dollars/ton./3140./+80

The futures market has a strong trend this week, rising as a whole. Affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the beginning of the week, the metal market has generally strengthened, and tin prices have surged. The trend of Lunxi is basically similar to that of Shanghai Tin, rising rapidly at the beginning of the week and rising slightly later.

This week, the spot market price basically coincided with the trend of Shanghai Tin, the overall market trading was slightly weak, business transactions were limited, and downstream purchasing remained just in demand. Fundamentals have not changed much in recent years, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Although the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to improve in the near future, the market mentality is slightly boosted. However, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual demand has not changed much. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The top three commodities that rose were nickel (3.91%), dysprosium oxide (2.37%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (2.25%). There were 9 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and the top three products that declined were metal silicon (-2.77%), aluminum (-1.36%) and silver (-1.36%). The average rise or fall this week was 0.2%.

The domestic acetic acid market operates in a weak way. Although the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity in the market declines, the downstream demand is sluggish. The market trading atmosphere is general. In addition, the raw material market is weak, and the acetic acid market lacks effective support. In order to relieve the inventory pressure, acetic acid enterprises move down their transaction focus, market supply is weak, and the price of acetic acid continues to decline.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, as of December 9, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3200.00 yuan/ton, down 3.98% compared with 3332.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and down 7.04% month on month. As of December 9, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions in the week were as follows:

Region./December 2./December 9./Price rise and fall

South China./3200 yuan/ton./3150 yuan/ton./- 50

North China./3100 yuan/ton./3050 yuan/ton./- 50

Shandong region./3175 yuan/ton./3100 yuan/ton./- 75

Jiangsu region./3050 yuan/ton./2950 yuan/ton./- 100

Zhejiang region./3150 yuan/ton./3050 yuan/ton./- 100

The upstream methanol market fell first and then rose. As of December 9, the average price in the domestic market was 2680.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.37% compared with 2670.00 yuan/ton on December 2. Affected by the wide fluctuation of crude oil, methanol prices continued to decline at the beginning of the week. Later, the price of methanol in the external market rose, boosting the domestic market. Methanol prices rebounded. However, on the whole, the supply side has sufficient supply of methanol, downstream demand is weak, and future market support is insufficient. It is expected that the methanol market will be adjusted and operated.

The downstream acetic anhydride market was weak. As of December 9, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5566.67 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from 5700.00 yuan/ton on December 2. The upstream acetic acid is weak, and the cost support of acetic anhydride is insufficient. The downstream demand for acetic anhydride is weak, and the purchase is mainly just needed. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price of acetic anhydride is reduced.

The downstream market of ethyl acetate was sorted up. As of December 9, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 6800.00 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from 6750.00 yuan/ton on December 2. The upstream price of acetic acid was lowered, and the support for ethyl acetate was weak. The downstream demand for ethyl acetate was good, and the market purchase was active. The enterprise’s shipment was smooth, and the price of ethyl acetate rose slightly.

According to the acetic acid analysts of the business community, the downstream demand for acetic acid is sluggish, and the on-site trading and investment is weak. In addition, the on-site maintenance enterprises are likely to resume production in the later period, so the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity will increase, the market supply is weak and the demand is weak, and there is a lack of good news. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the NMP market stopped falling and rebounded this week (12.5-12.9). The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the week was 22333 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 22833 yuan/ton, up 2.24%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 21000-22000 yuan/ton. The bottom of raw material BDO price is weak, the price of monomethylamine has been raised recently, and the downstream market has been lower. Driven by demand, NMP rebounded from the bottom, but the rebound is limited.

As of December 9, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/November 18

East China/21000-21500 yuan/ton

Central China/21000-22000 yuan/ton

Southwest China/20500-21500 yuan/ton

Raw materials: BDO fluctuated narrowly this week. In the near future, some equipment maintenance or expectations exist, which supports the continuation of the supplier’s price keeping mentality, and some factories are bidding to stabilize the market. The enthusiasm of downstream market purchasing is not high, and the market focus fluctuates little due to the negotiation and game between supply and demand.

 
3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts from Business Agency believe that although there is a rebound signal in the near future, the downstream order support is limited and the cost support is average. It is expected that the NMP market will be dominated by weak and stable operation next week.