Market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Recently, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has consolidated. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5400.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5350.00 yuan/ton, down 0.93%, down 3.31% year on year.

Market price trend chart of methanol-polyformaldehyde

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly. The quotation of methanol manufacturers in southern Shandong was concentrated at 2670 yuan/ton, and it was reported that the mainstream factory price was 2600 yuan/ton. Enterprises in the central and eastern part of Shandong Province have a factory output of 2610-2680 yuan/ton; The reference price of Dongying and surrounding areas is 2570-2580 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market has fluctuated, and the cost support is general. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the polyformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the domestic isopropanol market price fell this month, and the overall price fell. The average price of isopropanol on January 1 was 6680 yuan/ton, and the average price on January 30 was 6520 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 2.4% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic market price of isopropanol fell first and then rose this month, with the price falling mainly on the whole. The price of isopropanol fell in the first half of this month. The overall market price was relatively stable in the middle of the year. During the Spring Festival holiday in the last ten days, the market basically stagnated and the price was stable. After the holiday at the end of the month, the market price began to rebound. Up to now, most of the prices quoted in the isopropanol market in Shandong are around 6300-6700 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang isopropanol market are around 6400-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the acetone level fell first and then rose this month. The average price of acetone was 5550 yuan/ton on January 1 and 5060 yuan/ton on January 30. The price fell by 8.83% during the month. After the festival, the prices quoted in the major mainstream markets increased. According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the overall offer in the East China market in the main domestic region after the festival pushed up 150-200 yuan/ton, with the negotiation range of 4900-5000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose in January, with the average price of 7244.6/ton at the beginning of January, and the average price of 7640.6/ton on January 30, with a monthly increase of 5.47%. Downstream stock preparation before the festival, there was a wave of purchase peak, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream stock flow was smooth, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. The market fluctuated slightly after the holiday, and the overall rise was mainly this month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the domestic isopropanol on-site cost support is acceptable this month. The acetone market rose after the holiday, driving the isopropanol market to stop falling and rebound, and the overall market was stable and improving. It is expected that the isopropanol market will rise slightly in the short term.

The domestic acetic acid market is waiting to be sorted out and operated. Near the Spring Festival holiday, under the downstream stock operation, the prices in the south and north are differentiated. The stock in Shandong and North China is active, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the price of acetic acid rises slightly; Downstream stock in East China and South China performed generally, with light intra-field trading, and the downstream mainly followed up as required. The price was stable during the week. The domestic acetic acid market has sufficient supply, which is affected by the downstream demand as a whole.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 2950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% compared with the price of 2912.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and a decrease of 7.09% month-on-month. As of January 13, the market price of acetic acid in various regions during the week was as follows:

Region/ January 6/ January 13/ Price rise and fall

South China/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 0

North China/ 2800 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ +100

Shandong region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ +50

Jiangsu Province/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang Province/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated and fell. As of January 13, the average price in the domestic market was 2651 yuan/ton, down 1.08% compared with the price of 2680 yuan/ton at the end of last week. The coal price on the cost side is stable, the methanol support is weakened, the external methanol market is falling, the supply side is abundant, the downstream purchase demand is general, the market buying gas is weak, and the methanol market trend is declining.

The downstream acetic anhydride market was in a weak downward trend. As of January 13, the ex-factory price of acetic anhydride was 5312.50 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of last week was 5350.00 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The upstream acetic acid price fluctuates slightly, the acetic anhydride cost support is limited, the downstream demand is temporarily stable, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the acetic anhydride market is wait-and-see.

The downstream ethyl acetate market is weak. As of January 13, the average ex-factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 6883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% compared with the price of 6933.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week. In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market is weak, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream follow-up at the demand end is weak, the stock intention is general, and the market is weak.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the business agency believes that the demand for downstream stock increases near the Spring Festival holiday, the acetic acid manufacturers are actively shipping, and the on-site trading atmosphere may improve, but the downstream demand is limited, and the short-term acetic acid price fluctuates little. It is expected that the acetic acid market will sort up slightly, and pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average price of domestic industrial grade and superior cyclohexane was 7100.00 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the same period last week, or about 100 yuan/ton. In the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable and strong.

This week, the average price of cyclohexane, a domestic industrial top-grade product, was 7100.00 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7000 yuan/ton. At present, the supply range is normal, and the logistics has been shut down near the end of the year. The overall market just needs to purchase, and the delivery is slow.

Chemical index: The chemical index was 910 points on January 12, down 2 points from yesterday, down 35.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 52.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Cyclohexane analysts from the Business Agency believe that the cyclohexane market will maintain stable, medium and strong operation in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 11, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 156000 yuan/ton. The market for lithium iron phosphate was weak, and the price was slightly reduced, 4.88% lower than that of the same period last week. The mainstream price range was around 155000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not received.

The price of lithium iron phosphate is weak, down 8000 yuan/ton, or 4.88%, compared with the same period last week. At present, the mainstream price is 155000 yuan/ton. The downstream just needs to purchase, the logistics is slow, and the weak operation is maintained in the short term. The manufacturers supply only old customers, and new customers do not accept orders.

Chemical commodity index: The chemical index was 912 points on January 10, up 3 points from yesterday, down 34.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 52.51% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of LiFePO4 of the Business Agency believes that the market of LiFePO4 will operate in a narrow range and weak in the short term.

From December 30 to January 6, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose. The price at the end of last week was 75000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of this week was 76250 yuan/ton, up 1250 yuan/ton, up 1.67%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, and remained flat for seven consecutive weeks. At the end of October, the price began to decline continuously, and recovered slightly after the end of December.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was temporarily stable, and the price was at $11500/ton as of January 6, which was temporarily stable during the week, which had a certain boost to market sentiment.

The antimony ingot market recovered slightly this week, with an increase of about 1000-1250 yuan/ton in the week. Near the end of the year, the market had a certain stock demand, while some manufacturers in the industrial chain began to shut down one after another, and the market supply was further tight, so the market price continued to rise in the week. Enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market supply is slightly tight. In the future, the business association believed that the fundamental changes in the antimony ingot market were not big, and the supply of the ore end was still tight, and the recent release of downstream demand was also mostly caused by the stock preparation before the holiday. In the future, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term, and the market will be gradually weak in the near holiday in the long term, and the market will be temporarily stable.

Antimony oxide market rose slightly this week, due to a wave of rebound in the stock market before the holiday. In general, the sales situation of antimony oxide market is still weak, and the downstream market purchases on demand. The flame retardant market performs generally, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. The purchase of antimony ingots by antimony oxide enterprises is still on demand in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly, and the domestic light rare earth market rose. The rare earth index was 670 points on January 8, down 33.47% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 147.23% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide rose, and the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 875000 yuan/ton as of the 9th day, up 1.16% from the 1st day; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 717500 yuan/ton, 1.06% higher than that of the first day; The price of neodymium oxide was 790000 yuan/ton, 2.60% higher than that of the first day; The price of neodymium metal was 967500 yuan/ton, 1.67% higher than that of the first day; The price of praseodymium metal was 935000 yuan/ton, 2.19% higher than that of the first day; The price of praseodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable.

The supply of light rare earths in China has decreased, and the production cost is high near the end of the year. In addition to the overhaul and factory commissioning at the end of the year, the separation plant and waste recovery enterprises have reduced production and shut down a lot recently. The spot supply of rare earths in the market is in short supply, and the downstream purchasing and stocking sentiment is high, and the light rare earths market is rising. Recently, there have been many production holidays, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is high. The delivery situation of dealers has improved, and the transaction price has risen.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of automobiles in China reached 2.386 million and 2.328 million respectively in November 2022, down 8.2% and 7.1% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 768000 and 786000 respectively, up 65.6% and 72.3% year on year, and the market share reached 33.8%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose, the demand in the new energy field supported, and the rare earth market rose.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of the rare earth industry are sustainable development. The supply of production enterprises has been reduced recently. In the short term, the market price of rare earth will still rise. In the long term, the demand for rare earth is still guaranteed. We are optimistic about the development of the rare earth industry.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 6, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9150.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that on Tuesday (January 3).

This week, the epoxy propane market is in a stalemate. In the near future, the price of propylene as raw material has been largely stable and slightly changed, with little impact on the cost. The supply side started to work slightly, but the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation was general, so we should be cautious to wait and buy. The factory shipments became weak, and the inventory slowly came under pressure. Under the supply and demand game, the market consolidated and shipped. On the 6th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 8950-9100 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was stable and slightly moved this week, maintaining overall stability. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7244 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.08%.

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is average, the supply side is mainly stable, and the downstream reduction is wait-and-see. The market atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will operate under pressure in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, in December, the PP market rose and fell with each other, the wire drawing brand ran in shock, and the fiber products rose. As of December 31, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) was about 7858.33 yuan/ton, up or down by – 0.32% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. Subsequently, due to the rising cost, the downstream product profit was tightened, and the commencement was reduced, so the procurement was restrained. In order to stabilize the delivery of propylene, the prices of propylene enterprises decreased successively. In the middle of the month, the price of propylene fell to a low level, and the downstream bought on bargain. The supply of low price goods was smooth, and the price rose a small peak. In the late ten days, due to the impact of domestic public security incidents, transportation and manpower were affected. The offer of propylene continued to decline, with a fall of 5.8% for the whole month, 4.03% YoY.

Propylene prices rose and then fell, and PP cost side support was first strong and then weak this month. In terms of industry load, the maintenance and resumption of work of PP polymerization enterprises coexisted in December, and the industry load increased overall, adjusting operation at about 80%. The supply of goods on the site is sufficient, and the inventory position drops within the month. In terms of demand, the market of the products started by downstream plastic knitting enterprises is average, and the stock volume of BOPP enterprises has limited change, while it has declined year-on-year. In December, the wire drawing materials ran in shock, and the end of the month was weak. The power for the rise in the middle of the month was driven by the blowout demand for wire drawing materials.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8133.33 yuan/ton, up or down 1.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and+0.21% year-on-year. In this month, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main source of PP fiber, increased, the profit of spunbonded non-woven fabrics was fair, and the demand of terminal enterprises increased significantly. The digestion speed of nonwoven end products has increased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP is moderate. The kinetic energy on the site will remain firm, and it may still maintain consolidation and operation in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the market of meltblown PP rose significantly in December. As of December 31, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 11133.33 yuan/ton, which was+23.70% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, and+16.99% higher than the same period last year. In terms of international health events, the current optimization of China’s health event disposal has led to a large demand for masks. Social consumption has played a significant role in pulling medical melt blown fabric materials, but the trend has weakened at the end of the month. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped. At present, the supply of melt blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises have high starting saturation, but the inventory has not accumulated. Therefore, the price of melt blown materials may be stable when the demand momentum slows down.

Future market forecast

PP analysts from the business agency believed that the good performance of polypropylene market in December was mainly due to the high demand for meltblown materials. The raw material propylene market rose first and then fell, and the cost side support weakened. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain their strength, and the trading in the market is OK, but the buyers are cautious in their operations. It is expected that the PP market will continue to operate firmly in the short term.

Zinc price fell in December

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 23974 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 4.07% from 24992 yuan/ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month. The demand of zinc market was less than expected, and the zinc price fell in December.

Domestic PMI fell continuously, and the demand of zinc market was lower than expected

In December, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 47.0%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point. The manufacturing industry’s production and operation prosperity level fell back from the previous month. PMI has been lower than 50% for three consecutive months. Affected by the impact of the epidemic situation and other factors, China’s purchasing manager index has declined from last month. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the market trend is expected to recover in the later period.

Supply and demand factors in zinc market

In terms of supply, the cold wave is coming, domestic electricity is occupying industrial electricity, European zinc smelting may be affected by production reduction, and zinc supply is expected to shrink. All EU countries agreed that the price ceiling of natural gas is set at 180 euros/megawatt hour, which is far lower than the price proposed by the EU last month. Natural gas prices fell, zinc smelting costs fell, zinc smelting output is expected to increase, and European zinc supply is expected to increase.

On the demand side, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal while reducing the rate increase. The Federal Reserve decided to continue to raise interest rates. The optimistic expectation of the market was frustrated, and the pessimism of economic recession spread. The domestic prevention and control measures have changed, the macroeconomic recovery has not been as expected, the domestic factory output has slowed down, retail sales continue to decline, the supply and demand of zinc market have not met expectations, the impact of the epidemic has affected part of the employment, most enterprises plan to leave in advance, the off-season effect may be greater than in previous years, and the downward pressure on zinc prices has increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business society, the cold wave is coming, industrial power consumption is decreasing, and zinc smelting output is decreasing. With the reduction of zinc smelting costs in Europe, the supply of zinc is picking up. In terms of demand, the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates, and the market pessimism is spreading. However, the domestic market recovery is not as expected, and the demand for zinc is poor. In general, the expected increase in supply and demand of zinc market was less than expected, and the zinc price fell in shock. In the future, the supply of zinc is expected to recover, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly.