Price trend

In the first ten days of March, the domestic EVA market was stable and positive, and the spot price generally rose. As of March 13, the average ex-factory price of EVA in China was 16766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.71% from the beginning of the month, according to the monitoring data of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

In the near future, the market of ethylene at the raw material end has been stable after rising, and the good news such as the shutdown and maintenance of South Korean devices in the early stage has been gradually exhausted, and the increase of market supply and inventory is expected. However, the price of petroleum naphtha at the cost side has strengthened, and ethylene has been supported to some extent, and the overall market is strong. The domestic downstream plants of vinyl acetate are generally in operation, and the on-site consumption tends to be just in demand. The load of calcium carbide method device on the supply side is low, and the quantity of goods in the field is acceptable. The strong cost and the lagging demand coexist, and the spot price is stable and small. The market of raw materials is relatively stable, and the support for EVA market is general.

Supply:

In the past two weeks, domestic EVA manufacturers have been operating steadily in terms of load. The current industry operating rate is 79.5%, up 1.3% from the beginning of the month. At the same time, domestic production was stable, with a total output of 36200 tons last week, almost unchanged from the previous week. The factory inventory pressure is low, and the supplier has some support for the spot goods. The ex-factory price of the manufacturer is in line with the price, and the price of the auction source is rising steadily. Spot prices of mainstream brands generally rose by more than 500 yuan/ton.

Demand:

In the near future, the domestic market atmosphere of EVA is optimistic, and the momentum of the downstream market of the industrial chain and the mentality of the industry have increased simultaneously. At present, the downstream photovoltaic materials, the main force of EVA, are smoothly shipped, and the consumption continues to support the price market. On the other hand, the demand for foaming materials is differentiated from that of photovoltaic materials. The improvement of the delivery of foaming materials such as shoe materials is limited, and the follow-up is relatively slow, and the transaction continues to be flat. EVA demand-side support mainly comes from photovoltaic materials.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the recent EVA market performance is positive and the price is rising steadily. The raw material market is generally stable, and the support for EVA spot is stable. The starting point of downstream demand support is concentrated on photovoltaic materials, and replenishment is mainly to follow up the rigid demand. EVA polymerization plant inventory continued to be stable, and the ex-factory price was firm. The merchants’ mentality is supported by the suppliers and the offer keeps rising. It is expected that the domestic market of EVA will mainly digest the increase, and the price may run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3350 yuan/ton on March 6, and that of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3330 yuan/ton on March 10. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.60% this week.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton on March 6, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton on March 10. The market price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur rose, and the cost support was good. Downstream demand is weak, and intra-field transactions are small. As of March 10, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was about 3300 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan was about 3250-3350 yuan/ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan was about 3250-3450 yuan/ton, which was mainly based on actual negotiation.

The price of DAP was stable this week. The price of raw materials is high and the cost support is strong. The supply of diammonium chloride is tight and the price remains firm. At present, there are many orders to be issued, and most manufacturers suspend the receipt of orders. As of March 10, the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in North China was about 3950-4050 yuan/ton, and the 64% market price of diammonium chloride in Shandong was about 4000-4170 yuan/ton. The actual deal was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week. The sulfur refinery unit operates normally, the market supply is stable, the terminal industry has good delivery and investment, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchase in the market has increased. The sulfur refinery is actively shipping, and some manufacturers have raised their prices according to their own inventory.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. The domestic phosphorus ore market rose slightly this week. With the coming of the spring planting season, the demand for phosphate fertilizer downstream of the phosphate rock terminal will also gradually increase. The demand side will give more support to the phosphate rock. The supply in the phosphate rock field will continue to be tight. With the joint support of supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock market will continue to close up.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the business agency, the price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur has risen recently, which has caused great cost pressure. The demand for monoammonium is light, and the transactions on the market are relatively small, and the pending orders for diammonium are mainly. It is expected that the stable operation of ammonium phosphate will prevail in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 7, the average nickel spot market price was 197233.33 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from the previous trading day and 6.6% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, the price of nickel has been falling from 23 million yuan to 190 thousand yuan. It has fallen 17.45% in two months, and is now rebounding from the low point. The current price is equivalent to the price in the middle of October 2022. The current nickel price has fallen and rebounded. Has the nickel price reached the inflection point?

Historical price curve of nickel in ten years:

According to the price data of the Business Agency, the current nickel price is at a relatively high level in 12 years, which is the same as the price in the middle of October last year.

Annual nickel price comparison chart:

According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community, except for the sharp rise of nickel price in March 2022 due to the warehouse squeeze, which once soared to 300000 tons, the nickel price in March 2020 and 2021 fell slightly.

Loose supply expectations

In February, the Philippines shipped 23 ships of nickel ore, about 1.09 million wet tons, about the same year on year; The arrival of nickel ore in China’s major ports was about 1.69 million wet tons, down 10% from January. The nickel ore port destocks 300000 wet tons (4.5%). The newly-built pure nickel production capacity is still to be released, and the domestic smelters are also expected to increase. The supply shortage of pure nickel has been alleviated, and the existing production line of Jinchuan Group has increased by 600 tons/month; There are also enterprises in the market that purchase nickel sulfate and prepare electrolytic nickel. The output is about 300 tons/month. Since the beginning of the year, the supply of nickel market has been significantly sufficient. It is expected that the output of pure nickel will be in a climbing state in March. The import side is expected to increase after the news of Russian nickel mixed pricing came out last week.

Demand has warmed up

Although the contradiction of stainless steel supply is difficult to solve for a while, it also forces some enterprises to start the maintenance plan in advance, and last week, the stainless steel went to the warehouse slightly, and the demand showed a warming signal; In the new energy vehicle industry, according to the data, the global sales of new energy vehicles in January 2023 was 658000, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, penetration rate of 12.1%, and China’s share of 56.9%. At the same time, the policy helped to stimulate demand, and the share of new energy vehicles market was expected to increase unchanged.

FCA will take regulatory action on LME

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has begun a “mandatory” investigation of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which froze and cancelled billions of dollars worth of nickel trading in response to the historic price surge. The Financial Conduct Authority will monitor LME’s efforts to improve its shortcomings in behavior, control and governance, which were exposed when the Exchange suspended the nickel market a year ago. FCA will investigate some behaviors, systems and control measures of LME during the freezing of nickel trading at the beginning of 2022.

LME inventory

As of March 7, LME nickel inventory was 444.18 million tons, down 24.67% from the beginning of the year. The current inventory is at a relatively low level.

To sum up: nickel prices have been falling since the beginning of the year, and spot nickel rebounded slightly on March 7, which seems to have a reversal trend. However, from the perspective of nickel price fundamentals, domestic nickel supply is expected to be loose, and demand has slightly recovered. The price comparison data of the past three years shows that, except for the sharp rise of nickel price due to the squeeze in March 2022, and the slight drop in price in 2021 and 2020, the FCA is now supervising LME, and it is unlikely that there will be a similar surge in squeeze price. In general, the supply is loose, and the nickel price does not have the conditions for unilateral rise for the time being. However, supported by the low inventory and the recovery of demand, the price has limited room for further decline. It is expected that the short-term low volatility trend of nickel price will prevail.

The price of DOTP rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 6, the average price of DOTP was 10037.50 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the average price of 9975 yuan/ton on February 27. Plasticizer enterprises started to recover, DOTP supply was sufficient, DOTP cost support remained for rising raw material prices, and the price of DOTP rose in shock this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of March 6, the price of isooctanol was 9471.43 yuan/ton, up 4.46% from 9066.67 yuan/ton on February 27. Downstream demand is slowly recovering, and downstream customers are often looking for bargains to replenish stocks. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose, and the rising power of DOTP increased. Later, the stable demand for isooctanol started to warm up, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, and the rising power of DOTP increased.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of March 6, the PTA price was 5790 yuan/ton, up 3.44% from the shock price of 5297.27 yuan/ton on February 27. This week, PTA enterprises began to resume construction. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, PTA demand rose, PTA prices fluctuated and rose in the future, and DOTP cost support remained. It is expected that DOTP rising power in the future will remain.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, the prices of the raw materials of the plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol and PTA, rose sharply this week, and the cost of the raw materials of the plasticizer DOTP rose; Downstream customers are looking for bargains to replenish stocks, and the demand for DOTP has warmed this week, while the support for DOTP demand remains. With the economic recovery, the price of isooctanol rose, and the peak season came. PTA prices fluctuated and rose this week, and the demand for PVC recovered slowly. In the future, the cost support still remained and the demand recovered slowly. It is expected that DOTP will rise slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5960 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5940 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, up 1.11% month-on-month, and the current price fell 6.70% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week’s domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuated and fell. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate market fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market fluctuated and fell. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the supply of goods in Qinghai is mostly in the process of continuous export, and the price has declined slightly. Potassium nitrate was affected by the decline in cost. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), which varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have declined. Recently, the international potassium chloride market has insufficient demand, and the prices have shown a downward trend. The domestic spot market of potassium chloride has a general trading volume, and the price of potassium chloride has fallen slightly. It is expected that the market of potassium chloride will consolidate at a high level in the future.

The domestic potash fertilizer market consolidates, the supply of the market is relatively sufficient, the cost support is general, and the downstream is just in need of procurement. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market will still need to wait and see.

Price trend

In February, the domestic PA6 market was weak, and the spot prices fell more or less. As of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14133.33 yuan/ton, up – 1.4% from the average price at the beginning of the month, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic caprolactam market price fluctuated and fell in February. The price of raw material pure benzene fell first and then rose, and the cost support was acceptable. The spot supply of caprolactam is stable. Downstream demand is insufficient, with low-price procurement as the main part, and the delivery and investment at the end of the month have improved. The supply of caprolactam is expected to decrease, and the overall market is stable. It is expected that caprolactam prices will stabilize and rise in the short term.

Supply:

In February, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises fluctuated and adjusted between 66% and 70%, and the overall operation was stable. The market supply is stable, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the ex-factory price is loose.

Demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industry has increased, but it will take time to digest the raw materials before the festival, the demand for replenishment is weak, the intra-field trading is weak, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is poor.

Aftermarket forecast

In February, the market price of PA6 fell due to volatility. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased steadily, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, it tends to be rigid. Caprolactam is weak, and PA6 cost support is general. The market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, and the volume of real orders has shrunk. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market declined in late February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of February 28 was 7540.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 2.08% from 7700.00 yuan/ton on February 20.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on February 28 was 71.03, down 1.69 points from yesterday, down 57.32% from the highest point of 166.43 points in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late February, the upstream n-butane and liquid anhydride prices continued to decline, and the downstream resin replenishment was prudent, and the purchase was based on demand. As of the 28th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7200 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7200 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7500 yuan/ton.

The recent trend of international crude oil prices is volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, and the economic data is strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

In the upstream, the price of pure benzene rose in late February. The average price of pure benzene was 7013 yuan/ton on February 20 and 7103 yuan/ton on February 28, up 1.28%. The ex-factory price of hydrobenzene in North China rose by 0.74% to 6800 yuan/ton on February 20 and 6850 yuan/ton on February 28. In late February, the n-butane market declined as a whole, and as of February 28, the price in Shandong was about 5800 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Club believes that at present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious deficit, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; In the near future, the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and some resins in the downstream are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in chasing up the price, and mainly purchase according to demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

DOP prices fell sharply in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of DOP was 9940 yuan/ton, down 7.19% from 10710 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the plasticizer enterprises resumed operation, and the operating rate of DOP production enterprises rose. In February, the DOP market fell sharply.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, down 15.00% from the price of isooctanol on February 1, 10666.67 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is still weak, pre-holiday inventory is still in stock, and downstream customers are mostly bargain hunting. In February, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride slightly recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 27, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 1.22% from the price of 8225 yuan/ton on February 1. The price of o-xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly in February, and the upward momentum of DOP remained.

Downstream PVC market fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the PVC quotation was 6313.33 yuan/ton as of February 27, down 0.39% from the price of 6338.33 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, the market recovered and PVC demand slowly recovered, but the demand growth was less than expected. The growth of DOP demand was limited and the support for DOP growth was insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOP data analysts of the Business Agency, the price of isooctanol, the raw material of DOP, fell sharply in February, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the cost of DOP fell; PVC growth is less than expected, and DOP demand support is limited; However, after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), DOP enterprises resumed operation, and the supply of DOP increased. The overall demand growth was less than the supply growth, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. In the future, the demand for DOP in the future will recover slowly and the decline of cost will slow down. It is expected that the price of DOP in the future will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 11600 yuan/ton on February 24. The domestic carbon black market price fell first and then rose this month, and the current shock is relatively strong.

Cost side: The current high price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material has been consolidated, continuing to rise. At present, the enthusiasm of coke enterprises to start construction is general, and the supply of coal tar market is still tight, showing a situation of tight supply and high price. Carbon black enterprises are under great pressure to receive goods, and most enterprises are in a loss situation. The resistance to coal tar is rising, but the willingness of coke enterprises to stand up is strong.

Supply and demand: At present, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises is stable and the market supply is sufficient.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the overall operating rate has increased, but there is still resistance to the current carbon black price, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

In general, the high price of high temperature coal tar as raw material supports the price of carbon black. At present, the increase of demand for carbon black by downstream tire enterprises is dominated by favorable factors in the market as a whole. It is comprehensively estimated that the carbon black market will operate in a relatively strong way in the short term, and the future will focus on the recovery of demand in the downstream.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 23, 2023, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was referenced at 17660 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of February 1, 2023 (the reference price of silicone DMC was 16820 yuan/ton), the price increased by 840 yuan/ton, or 4.99%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic silicone DMC market has been steadily rising since February (2.01-2.23). After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand of organosilicon DMC recovered steadily, and the demand side support was still good. In the first ten days of February, the organosilicon DMC market ushered in a warmer operation. At the beginning of the month, Shandong large factories took the lead in raising the price of organosilicon DMC, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable and strong. Later, some other factories also followed in the footsteps of large factories, raising the price of organosilicon DMC successively. On February 15, The domestic market price of organic silicon is around 17300-17700 yuan/ton, and the DMC of organic silicon rose 4.04% in early February.

In late February, the rise of organosilicon DMC slowed down, and the price of organosilicon DMC in Shandong Dachang remained stable. Some suppliers in the market raised the price of organosilicon DMC sporadically and slightly, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. Then the market remained stable as a whole. On the 21st, the organosilicon DMC market experienced a partial rise, with an increase of about 200 yuan/ton, and the high price of organosilicon DMC reached around 18000 yuan/ton. As of February 23, the domestic market price of silicone DMC is about 17400-18000 yuan/ton.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organosilicon DMC is mild. After a small increase in the market, the bullish mood of the market is gradually rising, the enthusiasm of the downstream stage stock preparation is improved, the overall demand side is slightly boosted, and the operator is in a good mood. The organosilicon DMC factory is in a strong attitude of price appreciation as a whole. The traditional peak season in March is coming, and the market is expected as a whole. The organosilicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, The domestic silicone DMC market will mostly be stable and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.