1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on March 1 was 1116 yuan/ton, and the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on March 29 was 890 yuan/ton. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 20.30% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell sharply this month. In the first half of March, the market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly. The market demand for ammonium sulfate is stable, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with acceptable on-site trading. Export prices remained stable. In the second half of February, the price of ammonium sulfate continued to decline. The market demand for ammonium sulfate continues to weaken, with a small amount of downstream purchases and weak new orders. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation is sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate dropped significantly, and the domestic grade ammonium sulfate followed the downward trend. As of March 29, the mainstream ex-factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 860 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex-factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 870-920 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from January 2, 2023 to March 20, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in March, with the largest decline of -11.08% in the week of March 20.

The downstream compound fertilizer market is weak this month. The market for raw materials has weakened, and cost support has weakened. The manufacturer flexibly adjusts the price. The enthusiasm for terminal fertilizer use is not high, and the composite fertilizer market is dominated by low price transactions, with weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from the Business Agency, the recent downturn in the ammonium sulfate market has resulted in weak intramarket trading, and the industry is mostly on the sidelines. The performance of the international market is still poor, with low order prices. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term, and the main trend will be consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from the Business News Agency, the price of chlorinated paraffins rose first and then decreased this month. On March 1st, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5766 yuan/ton. On March 28th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5733 yuan/ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 0.58% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, domestic chlorinated paraffin enterprises started construction stably, and the unit was operating normally. In early March, the prices of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax continued to rise, strengthening cost support. The market demand is stable, and the transaction focus has increased. After that, the market demand for chlorinated paraffins weakened and the trust atmosphere was general. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards stabilizing prices, while the price of chlorinated paraffins remains stable. At the end of the month, the cost of chlorinated paraffins fell somewhat, and the transaction focus of chlorinated paraffins was lowered. As of March 28, the factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui Province was about 6300 yuan/ton, the factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong Province was about 5400 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from January 2, 2023 to March 20, 2023, it can be seen that domestic chlorinated paraffins fluctuate during the cycle. March was more stable.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose steadily in the first ten days of this month, with good intramarket trading. The price began to decline in the second ten days. Liquid wax fluctuates with crude oil prices. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price trend of liquid chlorine was relatively strong in the first half of this month, with a good market trading atmosphere and smooth enterprise shipments. Later this month, the price of liquid chlorine was lowered, resulting in average enterprise shipments and low enthusiasm for downstream procurement.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to chlorinated paraffins analysts from Business News, raw material prices have begun to fall recently, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand performance was poor, and the transaction atmosphere was light. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffins will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in raw material prices.

1、 Price data

As of March 27, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7599.00 yuan/ton, down 7.82% from 8244.00 yuan/ton on March 20. The actual transaction price of local refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

As of March 27, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 7514.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% compared to March 20, when the price was 8089.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

The naphtha commodity index on March 27 was 93.79, down 3.42 points from yesterday, down 22.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 122.04% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha continued to decline, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring just required replenishment, and a small amount of ethylene demand was released. Market trading was limited, market trading was sluggish, and market sentiment was pessimistic.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, the pressure of the banking crisis eased, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of toluene has shown a downward trend this week. On March 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7300.00 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the benchmark price was 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42%. The expected decline in the long-term supply and inventory of toluene supports the mentality of businesses. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers is moderate, but the mentality of the industry is unstable. The volatility of the toluene market price still lacks autonomy, and it is still good in the short term. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On March 17th, the price was 7500 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the price was 7440 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from last week. In the PX market, this week, the overall operation of the px device was stable, with normal supply of goods on the site, good delivery, stable market operation, and temporarily stable price trend. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Energy analysts from Business News believe that the price of refined naphtha has continued to decline this week, with strong market pessimism and weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring just requires replenishment, a small amount of ethylene demand is released, market trading is cold, terminal demand is weak, and refineries are actively reducing prices to ship. It is expected that refined naphtha may continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week, with the average domestic PVC price of 613333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6041.67 yuan/ton on Friday. The price fell 1.49% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC continued to decline this week. This week, the spot market was relatively light, with futures market prices underperforming. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was significantly reduced, and raw material support was weak. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence in the market. The inquiry atmosphere in the spot market is weak, and prices are falling. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see, and actual orders are cautiously traded. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5700-6250 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, according to monitoring, the domestic price of 92 # gasoline on the 23rd was 8456.4 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the price on the 10th; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil is 7555.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the price on the 10th. Since the middle of the year, the crude oil market price has decreased significantly. Due to cost factors, the market price of refined oil has decreased slightly.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average price of calcium carbide at the beginning of the week was 3350 yuan/ton, compared to 3066.67 yuan/ton on Friday, with a decrease of 8.46% during the week. The price of calcium carbide manufacturers fell sharply this week. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1250 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average carbide cost support. The downstream PVC market has recently declined slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. Superimposed high calcium carbide inventory, resulting in oversupply. In the future, it is expected that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and fall, with the main trend being consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 3000 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

PVC analysts from Business News believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand for PVC spot market is weak. Upstream calcium carbide prices fell sharply, while crude oil market prices fell sharply, leaving the overall market atmosphere somewhat empty. It is expected that in the short term, there is no shortage of possibility for the PVC market to continue to explore, and close attention will be paid to changes in the news.

The domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has increased. As of the 17th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8700 yuan/ton, 1.90% higher than the price of 8537.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable. The delivery situation of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly.

Cost side: price trend of ortho benzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene has increased. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend has increased by 2.41%. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory has decreased. The rise in ortho benzene price has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has increased slightly.

Demand side: The trend of DOP market is volatile, mainly based on demand procurement

The price trend in the downstream DOP market has fluctuated, with a slight increase of 0.10% this week. Currently, the domestic DOP price is 10010 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started operations steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand procurement. The mainstream DOP price is between 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand in the plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level due to the impact of the DOP price fluctuation, but the overall price has increased slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the short-term price trend of ortho xylene is mainly upward, but the downstream plasticizer industry is operating in a volatile manner. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand situation is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride will slightly increase in the future.

This week (3.13~3.20), the market for dichloromethane declined slightly. As of March 20, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2767 yuan/ton, down 2.72% from last Monday’s 2845 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the cost support for dichloromethane slightly weakened; The downstream refrigerant R32 price continues to rise slightly. In the peak season, support for dichloromethane procurement is just needed, but the supply of methane chloride is loose. The factory price of dichloromethane enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and the price of dichloromethane has decreased slightly.

This week (3.13~3.20), the start of the methane chloride plant fluctuated slightly, but the start of dichloromethane is still at a high level and the supply side is loose.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support for dichloromethane was weak. According to the business news agency, as of March 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2633 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from 2647 yuan/ton last Monday. The low consolidation of international crude oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the domestic raw material coal range, will not lead to a significant upward trend in methanol prices in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane is expected to be stable and weak.

This week (3.13~3.20), the downstream refrigerant gradually entered the traditional peak season of the industry, with the inventory consumption and price of the downstream third generation refrigerant R32 rising, and dichloromethane replenished as needed. In addition, downstream pharmaceutical and diluent industries also have a strong demand for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business News Agency, the downstream of dichloromethane is currently in need of support, but the industry is still at a high level and the supply side is loose, coupled with insufficient support on the cost side. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

DOP prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of DOP was 10130 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.30% compared to the price of DOP of 10000 yuan/ton on March 10. Cost support still exists, and this week’s DOP market fluctuated and rose.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, as of March 20, the price of isooctanol was 9321.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared to the fluctuating price of isooctanol of 9285.71 yuan/ton on March 10. This week, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose, and the cost of DOP raw materials increased. The upward momentum of DOP increased, and downward pressure remained.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and declined

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of March 20, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.96% compared to the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 10. The price of o-xylene rose, but the willingness to stand up for phthalic anhydride remained. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after a shock rise, resulting in a stalemate in the market for phthalic anhydride and a strong upward momentum for DOP.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOP data analysts from the Business News Agency, the price of isooctanol, a raw material for DOP, fluctuated and rose this week, while the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant after rising, and the cost of DOP stabilized after rising. In the future, the demand for DOP is temporarily stable and the cost is recovering. It is expected that the price of DOP will consolidate strongly in the future.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price remained stable and advanced overall this week. The average weekly price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2416.67 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 2416.67 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged overall.

In the middle of March, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market as a whole maintained a stable progress, with the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range of 2400-2500 yuan/ton this week. The rising trend of raw material costs has stabilized, the overall operating rate of sodium metabisulfite production enterprises is low, the inventory of sodium metabisulfite is relatively low, and enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not yet been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the manufacturer’s final pricing. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of March 17, the price of domestic soda ash stabilized and then slightly decreased, with a monthly decrease of 0.36%. The price of sulfur rose by 7.69%. The overall price of upstream raw materials stabilized and then slightly decreased. The cost stabilization will support the continued strong and stable operation of the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market in the future.

Aftermarket Forecast

Analysts from Business News believe that the overall upward trend of upstream raw material prices is stabilizing, and in the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will follow the overall stable progress of cost.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and fell this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 69021.67 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from 69285 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.14% year on year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, in the past three months, the price of copper rose by 7% and fell by 4%, and there was a slight correction after the recent slight rebound.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopic aspect: In his testimony to Congress this week, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the Federal Reserve may speed up the pace of interest rate increase and raise the interest rate to a higher level than previously expected, which has heightened people’s concerns about economic activity and global industrial metal demand. China’s CPI fell in February, with a year-on-year increase of 1%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 0.5% lower than the previous month; The production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI was flat on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The year-on-year decrease was 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

Supply side: China’s refined copper output in February was 907800 tons, up 6.5% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 900000 tons. The electrolytic copper output in March may continue to exceed expectations, and the interference at the South American mining end is slightly slow. Many long-awaited projects will reach production in 2023-2024, including those in Peru, Chile, Central Africa and Mongolia. It is estimated that by the end of 2024, the copper supply will increase by about 12% from that of 2021. Not only will the supply of primary copper ore increase, but also the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase.

On the demand side: the operating rate of refined copper rod was 62.1%, and the circumferential ratio rose by 3.5 percentage points; The operating rate of regenerated copper rod was 58.52%, and the circumferential ratio decreased by 1.8 percentage points. The price difference of refined waste is around 1700 yuan/ton, and the substitution of recycled copper for refined copper consumption is enhanced. In terms of terminals, processing and downstream enterprises gradually resumed production, and orders for wires and cables and enameled wires increased.

To sum up, the short-term macro market suppresses the copper price, and the supply has increased. However, the domestic market has entered the seasonal consumption season, and the demand is expected to increase. In the case of both supply and demand, the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.

The market of dichloromethane has risen since March

The market price of dichloromethane has risen since March. As of March 13, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2845 yuan/ton, up 6.75% from 2665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support of dichloromethane weakened slightly; Downstream refrigerant R32 prices rose sharply, which just needed support for dichloromethane procurement, and the factory price of dichloromethane enterprises was slightly adjusted upward; The price of dichloromethane rose.

The basic game of the industrial chain is the late or narrow fluctuation of dichloromethane

Since March, the start of methane chloride unit has risen slightly, and the pressure of dichloromethane supply has increased, which has a negative impact on the market of dichloromethane in the later period.

Since March, the price of raw material methanol has declined slightly, and the cost support of dichloromethane has weakened. According to the business news agency, the spot price of methanol was 2647 yuan/ton as of March 13, down 3.23% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the 13th, the international crude oil price fell sharply, and the domestic coal market as a whole was stable and slightly fluctuating. The methanol price would not rise significantly in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane was expected to be stable and weak.

Since March, the downstream refrigerant has gradually entered the traditional peak season of the industry. The inventory consumption and price of the downstream third-generation refrigerant R32 have increased, and dichloromethane has been replenished as needed. In addition, the demand for dichloromethane in downstream pharmaceutical and diluent industries also increased slightly. The demand for dichloromethane has a rigid need for support.

Future prediction: The methane chloride data analyst of the Business News believes that the downstream of dichloromethane just needs to be supported, but the early maintenance device is restarted, there is a slight pressure on the supply side, and the support on the cost side is insufficient. Due to the basic game of the industrial chain, the market of dichloromethane is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.