In July, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell, and it rose slightly at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 29, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2425 yuan/ton, up 3.63% from 2340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 6.46% from the monthly high of 2592 yuan/ton. The price of methanol as raw material fluctuated higher, and the cost of dichloromethane became stronger; The pressure on the low to high supply surface continues before the start of the methane chloride plant; The price of downstream refrigerant R 32 is mainly small orders for dichloromethane procurement, with limited demand support; The dichloromethane market rose first and then fell.

In July, the methane chloride unit slightly decreased in the early stage of operation, and slightly increased after some units were restarted in the later stage. In the later stage, the supply pressure of the new Jiuhong unit is expected to increase again.

In July, the price of raw methanol rose in shock, and the cost of dichloromethane strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2281 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% from 2180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2137 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2314 yuan/ton.

The downstream receives orders on demand, and the overall commencement is stable. The downstream refrigerant R 32 market is slightly higher, and the commencement is stable. The demand for dichloromethane is mainly supported by a small amount of rigid demand, which is slightly weaker than that at the beginning of the month. The inventory of dichloromethane manufacturers was slightly accumulated.

Future forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane is expected to increase, coupled with limited demand support, and the supply side of dichloromethane is weak, but the cost side may continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

In July 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market will fluctuate downward. The average market price in East China will be 81250 yuan/ton on the first day and 76000 yuan/ton on the 28th, down 6.46%.

On July 26th, the antimony commodity index was 105.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 12.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 125.20% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. In March, prices fell broadly, while in April and May, the trend remained stable. After June, prices continued to decline for seven consecutive weeks.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market continued to decline in July, with a quote of $11450/ton as of the 27th, a decrease of $400/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market fell broadly in July following the trend of antimony ingots. Driven by the antimony ingot market, the monthly decrease was 5500 yuan/ton. Currently, market trading is light, downstream demand is generally weak, and future expectations are not good. Market prices have continued to decline.

In July, the antimony ingot market accelerated its decline. Under the supply and demand game of the past three months, the willingness of antimony ingot manufacturers to raise prices gradually declined. Some manufacturers adjusted their sales strategies to sell at reduced prices due to financial needs. However, downstream antimony oxide has performed poorly this month, with market transactions consistently weak. Market participants are generally bearish about the future market, with few market discussions and weak transactions. Antimony oxide manufacturers also have low intentions to purchase raw antimony ingots, which has a negative impact on the antimony ingot market mentality. The overseas situation is also not optimistic. The European region is about to enter a summer break, and overseas demand is expected to decline. The price of small metals in Europe has been continuously lowered by $400/ton for the month. Moreover, according to the latest export data, the export volume of antimony oxide and antimony ingots has decreased. The weakness of the overseas market has also affected the mentality of the domestic market, and the market’s outlook for the future is not good. Overall, the market demand is weak and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is difficult to improve the downstream demand market expectations, and in the case of low demand, the market performance is weak. In the future, the business society predicts that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate weakly.

Recently, the quotation of metal silicon has remained stable, with a strong willingness to stand up in the Southwest region. At present, the price of 441 # in Kunming is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, while the price in Sichuan is 13500-13700 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production in the main production areas continued to increase last week.

In the Sichuan region,

Affected by the Universiade, in order to ensure the electricity supply and air quality in Chengdu during the Universiade, some silicon factories in the surrounding areas of Chengdu have requested to suspend production. It is understood that last week, all five industrial silicon furnaces in Yingjing County of Ya’an were shut down. At zero o’clock on the 26th, a total of 10 silicon plants in Jinkouhe District, Ebian County and Baoxing County of Ya’an will be shut down. The supply in Sichuan has decreased.

In the Yunnan region,

The construction is at a high level, and most manufacturers have resumed production. Currently, the start-up rate has exceeded 70%, and there is limited room for growth in the later stage.

Xinjiang region,

In the early stage, the resumption of production of furnaces after shutdown was promoted, and there was still room for further growth of output, which also led to an increase in low price transactions in the northwest market.

In terms of demand, the overall market demand remains unchanged. The organic silicon DMC market continues to decline, with high inventory. A single factory in Shandong and a leading large factory have lowered their prices, while some single factories have followed suit. The price of polycrystalline silicon remains stable, and silicon material manufacturers continue to operate normally. However, inventory continues to digest due to the improvement in downstream demand, and prices will remain low in the near future. The process of continuing to rise in the short term will not be too long. The aluminum alloy market remained stable, and the operating rate of aluminum alloys remained flat month on month.

Future Market Forecast

Sichuan and Yunnan have limited production growth and stable quotations, while Xinjiang is actively resuming production, with more low-priced transactions in the market, suppressing prices in the south. Overall, there has been no significant change in the fundamentals of metallic silicon, and it is expected that the price of metallic silicon will operate smoothly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have been operating weakly this week, with a slight decline. On July 24th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8666 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature Coal tar remained stable this week, and so far, the market price of Coal tar is 4062 yuan/ton. After the introduction of the consumption tax policy, there are few new products in the market, and the overall operation of coke enterprises is poor. It is expected that the Coal tar market will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, still in the traditional sales off-season. Recently, there has been insufficient construction and construction work, and domestic demand has further weakened. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and terminal demand continues to be weak. The overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be reorganized and operated in the short term.

On the 21st, precious metals saw a slight decline from their high levels

Precious metal prices rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, on July 21, 2023, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 459.28 yuan/g, a daily drop of 0.44%; Compared with the price of 448.60 yuan/g in the Spot market of gold at the beginning of the month (July 1), it rose 2.38%.

Silver fell back to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average silver market price will be 5843.67 yuan/kg on July 21, 2023, a daily drop of 1.36%, up 7.57% from 5432.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Policy Fundamentals Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK rose 7.9% year-on-year in June, lower than expected.

noble metal

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

Silver rose significantly in July, and its price was overestimated by fundamentals, leading to profit taking in funds. In addition, with the July Fed meeting approaching, interest rate hikes are expected to be high, although it may be the last rate hike in the Fed’s most aggressive tightening rate hike cycle in 40 years. Interest rate hikes suppress precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals have been volatile and bearish after recent highs; In the medium to long term, it remains bullish. Mainly due to the end of the tightening cycle, overall commodities may gradually improve, and silver commodities have a larger attribute and still have upward momentum.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly decreased this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 178.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 174.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.25%. Weekend prices fell 80.49% year-on-year. On July 16th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 27.08, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 85.60% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 753.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 770.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 56.66% at the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9585.71 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 10.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 15650.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 15516.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.85%. Weekend prices fell 18.33% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide market has slightly declined, while the hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has declined due to supply-demand conflicts. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12037 yuan/ton on July 10, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12162 yuan/ton on July 14. The price of Caprolactam rose 1.04% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, and cost support was strengthened. The spot price of Caprolactam rose with the cost. At present, the supply side is gradually increasing, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on demand. The Caprolactam market continues to be strong. As of July 14, the delivery price of Caprolactam liquid in East China of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng was 12400 yuan/ton. The settlement price of Sinopec high-end Caprolactam is 12550 yuan/ton, and the liquid is superior, which will be accepted and picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the price of pure benzene was 6378 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 14th), the price of pure benzene was 6396 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to last week and a decrease of 29.77% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 6600 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise recently, and the cost side support is favorable. The market supply has not eased yet, and terminal demand is being followed up as needed. Under the favorable market factors, it is expected that the Caprolactam market will continue to rise strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has risen in a narrow range. From July 6th to 13th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3752 yuan/ton to 3816 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month increase of 1.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.91%. Boosted by favorable factors such as the recent rise in crude oil prices, relatively low supply, and tight availability of resources, the domestic asphalt market price has slightly increased.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, and the supply side has a positive outlook.

On the cost side, US inflation data has fallen, core CPI growth is less than expected, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate hikes, providing support for oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.75 per barrel, an increase of $0.92 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $80.11 per barrel, an increase of $0.71 or 0.9%. International crude oil futures continued to rise, and the domestic Petroleum industry chain was positively affected.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The rainfall in the northern region has increased, and some terminal construction has been hindered. The demand performance is average, and actual transactions are mostly low. The weather in the southern region has improved, and the market has just started to improve overall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of July 13th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3750 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3766 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3727 yuan/ton. It closed at 3757 yuan/ton, an increase of 18% or 0.48% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 196102 lots, the holding volume was 356308 lots, and the daily increase was 8161 lots.

According to future forecasts, the international crude oil market is experiencing high volatility, which provides strong support for refinery costs. Some refineries have reduced supply of maintenance goods, and the weather is improving. Demand is expected to further increase. Asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will be relatively strong in the short term, with consolidation being the main focus

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic mainstream market rose from 7033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.90%. Weekend prices fell by 2.71% year-on-year. On July 10, the Isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.55, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 65.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 21.35% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side, the quotation of Isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week, and the inventory was low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of Isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 6683.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6563.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.80%. Weekend prices fell by 12.03% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of Isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of Neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 9600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 0.35%. Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and downstream demand was weak, which had a negative impact on Isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late July, Isobutyraldehyde market trend may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business agency believe that the short-term Isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline, mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the Isobutyraldehyde market.