1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12037 yuan/ton on July 10, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12162 yuan/ton on July 14. The price of Caprolactam rose 1.04% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, and cost support was strengthened. The spot price of Caprolactam rose with the cost. At present, the supply side is gradually increasing, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on demand. The Caprolactam market continues to be strong. As of July 14, the delivery price of Caprolactam liquid in East China of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng was 12400 yuan/ton. The settlement price of Sinopec high-end Caprolactam is 12550 yuan/ton, and the liquid is superior, which will be accepted and picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the price of pure benzene was 6378 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 14th), the price of pure benzene was 6396 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to last week and a decrease of 29.77% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 6600 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise recently, and the cost side support is favorable. The market supply has not eased yet, and terminal demand is being followed up as needed. Under the favorable market factors, it is expected that the Caprolactam market will continue to rise strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has risen in a narrow range. From July 6th to 13th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3752 yuan/ton to 3816 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month increase of 1.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.91%. Boosted by favorable factors such as the recent rise in crude oil prices, relatively low supply, and tight availability of resources, the domestic asphalt market price has slightly increased.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, and the supply side has a positive outlook.

On the cost side, US inflation data has fallen, core CPI growth is less than expected, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate hikes, providing support for oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.75 per barrel, an increase of $0.92 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $80.11 per barrel, an increase of $0.71 or 0.9%. International crude oil futures continued to rise, and the domestic Petroleum industry chain was positively affected.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The rainfall in the northern region has increased, and some terminal construction has been hindered. The demand performance is average, and actual transactions are mostly low. The weather in the southern region has improved, and the market has just started to improve overall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of July 13th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3750 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3766 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3727 yuan/ton. It closed at 3757 yuan/ton, an increase of 18% or 0.48% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 196102 lots, the holding volume was 356308 lots, and the daily increase was 8161 lots.

According to future forecasts, the international crude oil market is experiencing high volatility, which provides strong support for refinery costs. Some refineries have reduced supply of maintenance goods, and the weather is improving. Demand is expected to further increase. Asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will be relatively strong in the short term, with consolidation being the main focus

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic mainstream market rose from 7033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.90%. Weekend prices fell by 2.71% year-on-year. On July 10, the Isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.55, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 65.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 21.35% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side, the quotation of Isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week, and the inventory was low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of Isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 6683.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6563.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.80%. Weekend prices fell by 12.03% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of Isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of Neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 9600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 0.35%. Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and downstream demand was weak, which had a negative impact on Isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late July, Isobutyraldehyde market trend may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business agency believe that the short-term Isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline, mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the Isobutyraldehyde market.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Chlorinated paraffins will rise first and then decline in the first half of 2023. On January 1, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5400 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5283 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell 2.16%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the K column chart from January to June 2023, in the first half of the year, domestic Chlorinated paraffins rose and fell in the cycle. February saw a significant increase, with a maximum increase of 8.13%. April saw the largest decline, with a maximum decline of 3.49%.

In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of Chlorinated paraffins rose first and then fell. In the first quarter, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fluctuated and rose. The prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, and cost support has been strengthened. Under cost pressure, Chlorinated paraffins manufacturers raised prices. The market demand is stable, and the transaction focus has increased. In the second quarter, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell sharply. The raw material prices have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, procurement enthusiasm is poor, and market transactions are weak. As of June 30, the ex factory quotation of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 5600 yuan/ton, and that of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 5250 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Chlorinated paraffins from the business agency believe that the prices of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax have continued to rise recently, cost support has been strengthened, and Chlorinated paraffins is running steadily and well. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average and transactions are relatively low. It is expected that the price of Chlorinated paraffins will rise steadily in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.

This week (July 3-7, 2023), a new round of prices for viscose staple fiber factories has been introduced, resulting in a decrease in prices. The new prices range from 12800 to 13200 yuan/ton, with some factories offering additional discounts and rebates, and downstream customers experiencing a new round of centralized order signing. The production cost has little change, the raw materials are maintained, the cost support is limited, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp is stable, and the domestic market is basically stable; The price of imported Dissolving pulp was basically maintained. The demand for human cotton yarn has been delayed and weak, and prices have declined slightly. Due to the high temperature and high inventory, a few yarn factories are considering shutdown and vacation, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, new factory prices have been introduced this week (July 3-7, 2023), and the price center of viscose staple fibers has declined. As of July 7, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fibers is 12960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from last week’s price, a decrease of 1.97%.

Raw material market

Recently, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp has weakened. Domestic Dissolving pulp: two manufacturers in Shandong and Hunan produce broad-leaved Dissolving pulp, and domestic Dissolving pulp is quoted at about 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Recently, the quotation of imported Dissolving pulp has remained stable, about 870 dollars/ton for broad-leaved Dissolving pulp and 880-890 dollars/ton for coniferous Dissolving pulp.

Downstream cotton yarn market

The demand for human cotton yarn has been delayed and weak, and prices have declined slightly. Due to the high temperature and high inventory, a few yarn factories are considering shutdown and vacation, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards. As of July 7th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week’s price. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

With the arrival of high temperatures in summer and the traditional off-season of textile production, the overall purchasing and sales atmosphere in the market is limited. With the introduction of a new round of prices in the market, short-term centralized order signing is the main focus, and the market will enter a wait-and-see adjustment period. Analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be weak and stable in the short term, with prices being mainly stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market fluctuated in June, with overall fluctuations in various wire drawing brands. As of June 30th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7164.29 yuan/ton, with a+1.11% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell first and then rose in June, with a slight overall increase. In the first ten days, downstream buying was poor, and the price of propylene gradually fell to a low point. Downstream bargains entered the market, and the effect of enterprise destocking was significant. In the latter half of the year, procurement improved, while some propylene enterprises underwent temporary maintenance, resulting in a temporary decrease in market supply and a push up model for propylene. The current inventory in the propylene market is controllable, and demand changes are limited. It is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation operation in the short term.

Propylene prices rebounded after a drop, while international crude oil fluctuated frequently this month, with limited cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained between 70-80% this month, with construction approaching 79% at the end of the month, reaching an overall high level. The overall supply of goods remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of demand, it tends to be weak, with the main downstream plastic weaving production fluctuating from 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials, the operating rate of enterprises has increased to around 60% in the latter half of the year. Although there has been an increase, the overall position is not high, and the improvement of the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is limited, with procurement maintaining production as the main focus.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.17% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -17.17% compared to the same period last year. This month, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material maintained a low horizontal load, with an overall operating rate of around 31%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven fabric end products is average. Enterprises have low efforts to replenish fiber PP, resulting in narrow price fluctuations and adjustments. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may continue to undergo narrow adjustments due to supply-demand conflicts.

In terms of melt blown materials, the June melt blown PP market continued to be weak. As of June 30th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is about 7875 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -3.67%, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.97%. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand, with traders giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in excessive parking of melt blown material production lines. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the rise in the polypropylene market in June was hindered. The raw material propylene market has stopped falling and rebounded, with frequent fluctuations in distant crude oil, and average support from the cost side for the market. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is poor, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, resulting in weak demand release. The small number of market orders hinders the low level recovery of the market, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a range consolidation market early next month.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were relatively strong at the end of the month. On June 30th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9033 yuan/ton.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the auction price of new orders in the main production area of high temperature Coal tar in China rose again as a whole near the end of the month, with the range of 330-460 yuan/ton. Affected by cost fluctuations, the operating sentiment of carbon black industry has risen. Up to now, the market price of Coal tar is 3950 yuan/ton. The price of coal tar pitch also rebounded this week, and the operating profit and loss of deep processing enterprises have been improved. In this case, the downstream receiving of Coal tar just needs support, the Coal tar market has improved, and the support for carbon black cost side has become stronger.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, with little change in operating this week. Currently, the inventory of mainstream carbon black manufacturers in the market is generally low, and the overall inventory level of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a relatively balanced market supply and demand..

In terms of demand: The overall operating situation of downstream rubber conveyor belt enterprises is poor, and the demand for carbon black market is further decreasing. June is the traditional off-season for downstream tire sales, and the demand side may further weaken. The market is mostly in a wait-and-see state, and the bearish atmosphere is gradually deepening, and the transaction volume in the carbon black market is weak. At present, purchasing is mainly based on hard demand, and there is currently no obvious positive news in the market. From the demand side, the overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the trend of carbon black will be stronger in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. From June 1st to 29th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market remained at 2161 yuan/ton, with a balanced price increase and decrease during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.52%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was weak and the support for methanol production costs was weakened. The Baofeng plant was restored, and the supply in mainland China increased. Additionally, the local formaldehyde load was reduced, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly.

In the first half of this month, the domestic methanol market continued to decline, with coal prices falling, and support for methanol production costs weakening. Traditional demand entered the off-season and demand was weak. At the same time, some methanol parking devices were restored, and new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy had production plans in the near future. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient.

In the second half of this month, the domestic methanol market was in a weak state of consolidation. With the arrival of high temperature weather, there were signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there was no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side remained relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand.

Towards the end of the month, the domestic methanol market has rebounded. The narrow upward trend in raw coal prices provides some support for methanol prices. At the same time, some downstream devices are operating and actively replenishing goods, driving some demand. At the same time, some major industrial enterprises are undergoing equipment maintenance, resulting in a gradual depletion of social inventory and a decrease in port inventory. Overall, there are many positive factors.

By the end of June 29, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2114 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2170 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2114 yuan/ton. It closed at 2144 yuan/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.88% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2134258 hands, the position was 1925785 hands, and the daily increase was 144852.

On the cost side, some coal mine production tasks have been completed and production has been suspended, and the overall coal supply has been tightened. Most coal mines in the Shaanxi region maintain normal production and overall supply is basically stable. Some coal mines have undergone centralized and continuous price reductions, and the transportation situation has slightly improved, while the price adjustment at the pit mouth has been relatively tightened. Coal prices have rebounded in a narrow range, but downstream demand has not significantly increased, terminal restocking willingness is not strong, and actual market trading volume is limited. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

Demand side, downstream MTBE: Debao Road and Dongming Qianhai have plans to start construction recently, and MTBE demand may increase; Downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi will resume full load, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; The demand for formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, middling coal Yanchang, Inner Mongolia Dongri, Wangcang Hezhong Chemical, Shanxi and Henan each have a set of devices for maintenance; Shanxi Yueanda, Guangxi Huayi, Shenhua Mengxi, Anhui Linhuan, Hengxin High tech, and Shaanxi Weihua units have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 28th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $289.00- $291.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 72.00-74.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 207.00-209.00 euros per ton, a decrease of 5 euros per ton.

In the future, the cost support is expected to be average in the short term, but the supply side is expected to show some positive results. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise.

Domestic boric acid prices stopped falling and stabilized in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid slightly rebounded in June. As of June 28th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7417.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% compared to the beginning of the month. However, compared to the beginning of the year, the average market price was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.43%.

Looking at the overall trend, the domestic boric acid market has stopped falling and stabilized. Boric acid, as a basic chemical raw material, is widely used in industries such as chemical production, glass, metallurgy, electronics, pharmaceuticals, etc. Boric acid has extensive applications in fields such as chemistry, metallurgy, glass, ceramics, electronics, and medicine. In chemistry, boric acid can be used as an acid catalyst, reducing agent, and buffer; In the glass and ceramic industry, boric acid can be used as a raw material for glass and ceramics; In the electronics industry, boric acid can be used as a dopant for semiconductor materials; In the pharmaceutical field, boric acid can be used as a raw material and buffer for drugs. The glass and ceramic industries are the main application fields of boric acid, occupying a considerable share of the boric acid market. At present, the downstream demand is average, while the supply is relatively loose, coupled with a large number of imported goods, leading to a downward trend in the price of boric acid in the early stage. After late May, the price began to hit the bottom and stop falling.

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7100-8200 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

Boric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the price of boric acid began to slightly recover in June, and it is expected that the short-term trend will remain unchanged, but the upward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in June. From June 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6587 yuan/ton to 6497 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.37% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%.

At the beginning of the month, after the price fluctuations in May, there was no significant improvement in demand, and the ethanol market atmosphere continued to be weak. In mid month, due to weak supply and demand, the ethanol market continued to operate at a low level, with slight differences in different regions. The overall demand for downstream chemical products is still flat, with most production still based on orders and profits, and the main demand for ethanol is replenishment. In the latter part of the month, there was sufficient supply in some regions, and production enterprises continuously lowered their prices. The market atmosphere was affected by this and the market atmosphere was relatively low. The overall supply still exceeds the demand, and it is slightly adjusted based on cost prices.

On the cost side, corn prices have fluctuated and risen. Factors such as domestic high temperatures, malt substitution, and an increase in imports have led to weak demand, poor profits in deep processing and aquaculture. However, due to the sustained low demand at the grassroots level, the market supply has shrunk, and the spot price of corn has maintained a strong trend of volatility. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on June 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2727.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22% compared to the beginning of this month (2694.29 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, as of the end of June, the ethanol market has been operating steadily with increasing supply in Northeast China. The operating load of the equipment is relatively high, and in June, the operating load in Northeast China continued to be at a high level. The factories of Hongzhan Laha (second line), Guotou Fukang, COFCO Zhaodong, and Henan underwent quarterly maintenance, and Shenglong started operating. The supply mainly continued to be at a high load. Negative impact on ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, downstream large factories mainly focus on stable procurement, while just in demand procurement is the main focus. The demand for fine chemical products is stable. The weather is gradually hot, the demand for Baijiu is gradually narrowing, and the short-term demand for ethanol is negative.

Future market forecast shows limited cost support and weak downstream demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will be sluggish in the short term.