Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and fell in April, with overall spot prices of various brands decreasing. As of April 26th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.79% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the bisphenol A market fluctuated and improved at the end of this month. In the early stage, international crude oil continued to strengthen, while pure benzene and phenol in the upstream raw materials increased, and bisphenol A was supported by increased cost. As the holiday season approaches in the latter half of the year, the enthusiasm for entering the downstream epoxy resin market has increased, and the market negotiation atmosphere has improved. Holders have a relatively stable mentality, and their prices are quite high. It is expected that the market situation may continue to rise.

In terms of supply: In April, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs was adjusted to around 70%, and the industry is still at a three-year high load with abundant supply. In addition, some maintenance plans have been delayed and new devices have been put into operation within the month. Overall, the positive impact of April’s negative reduction on the market has been smoothed out, and the expected increase in inventory and supply in the later period has resulted in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: In April, downstream PC buyers just needed to maintain production, and the business owners had a more wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

In April, the PC market was volatile, and the upstream bisphenol A market rose after consolidation, which improved the support for PC costs. However, the high load of domestic polymerization plants remains stagnant, and there is no improvement in demand side follow-up, while supply side pressure remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to operate in a weak position.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (April 25th): 23.60 yuan/ton

On April 25, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly, 6 yuan/ton higher than that on April 24, up 3.04%, and 34.32% lower than that on the same period last year. The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The market situation of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

In the future, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may slightly fluctuate and fall, with the average market price around 190 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9465.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Thursday (April 20th).

The recent market situation of epoxy propane is mainly stable. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been weak, and the cost support has weakened. Last Thursday, factory shipments slightly increased, and downstream wait-and-see has followed up appropriately. On the weekend, some downstream companies just need to stock up before the holiday, and inventory pressure has eased. The epoxy propane market is mainly stable and wait-and-see. At the beginning of this week, downstream companies remained the main follower, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. On the 24th, the mainstream quotation for epoxy propane in the Shandong region was around 9550-9700 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the recent price of propylene in Shandong has fallen. On April 21, the reference price of propylene was 7110.60, down 0.39% compared with April 1 (7138.60).

The epoxy propane analyst at Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, and the supply side operates without pressure, which has some support for the market. Downstream companies are still following up, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market may rise in the short term and wait and see for consolidation and operation. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has declined, and spot prices have often declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: This week, the high load situation in the ABS industry saw a slight increase, with some companies experiencing an increase in operating rates, resulting in the overall operating rate of domestic ABS rising to over 97%. On site spot supply is abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. The inventory of domestic enterprises has increased, while the mid stream inventory has remained stagnant at a high level. Merchants are under pressure, and their prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been mixed in recent times. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to adjust. Last week, cost support slightly improved, while supply and demand remained stable and there were reports of device maintenance. Merchants’ willingness to stand up for prices has increased, with downstream demand being the main focus and stable demand. The current acrylonitrile market is in a stalemate, and it is expected that the market may maintain a consolidation trend in the near future.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has stopped falling and increased due to the impact of external market prices and high prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, as well as with the increase in Sinopec’s supply prices and the approaching holiday, some downstream companies are gradually restocking, and the butadiene market is rebounding and rising.

This week, the styrene market fluctuated and fell. Recently, the styrene market price has continued to decline. From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly. On the 21st, international crude oil prices rebounded, and the overall trading volume in the Asian styrene US dollar market was light, with lower prices and poor cost support. Domestic styrene supply was relatively abundant, and port inventory was slightly rising. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main factors.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have seen mixed ups and downs, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant is almost fully operating, and the market supply of goods continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position has increased, leading to a weakening mentality among merchants, resulting in frequent operations such as profit taking and order taking. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer product DOTP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the average price of DOTP was 9971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% compared to the average price of 9990 yuan/ton on April 10. Plasticizer enterprises started steadily, raw material support was absent, DOTP quotation remained firm, market transactions were cold, the actual transaction price center moved down, and DOTP price was weak and consolidated this week.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the price of isooctanol was 9114.29 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.24% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 10, which was 9228.57 yuan/ton. This week, the production of isooctanol enterprises was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol is expected to decrease. Demand side plasticizer enterprises have temporarily stabilized their production, and the weak and volatile consolidation of isooctanol will be the main trend in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17th, the PTA price was 6520.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the fluctuating price of 6350.91 yuan/ton on April 10th. Cost support, PTA prices fell first and then rose this week, with a slight increase in PTA market.

Downstream demand is weak

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the price of PVC was 5994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% compared to the PVC price of 6066.67 yuan/ton on April 10. The PVC spot market is relatively light, and the futures market has performed poorly. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market. The inquiry atmosphere in the PVC spot market is weak, and the enthusiasm for buying goods is not good. PVC prices have fallen.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the price of DOTP plasticizer raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and decreased, PTA prices have fluctuated and increased, and the support for raw material prices has weakened. On the demand side, PVC prices are weak and declining, while downstream demand is weak. Overall, cost support weakens and demand is weak, while plasticizer DOTP market is mainly weak and consolidating.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite was relatively weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2383.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2366.67 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.70% during the week.

The overall market situation of the domestic metabisulfite market this week was average. Pressed by the continuous decline in the cost of upstream raw materials, some manufacturers slightly lowered the ex factory price, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue weak operation. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2300-2500 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the company mainly completes orders from old customers, with limited increase in new orders. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of April 14, the price of domestic soda ash fell 2.17% in the month, and the price of sulfur fell 11.88% in the month. The cost of upstream raw materials rose and fell back. The continuous decline of cost will further suppress the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials continues to fall under the low pressure system, and it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will still have some downward space in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda is weak this month, with an average market price of 2435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2162.5 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 11.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.19%. On March 30th, the baking soda commodity index was 143.53, a decrease of 0.83 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-10-10), and an increase of 62.60% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the overall price of baking soda in March was weak, and downstream markets have been mainly purchasing according to demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 2000-2300 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: the current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2650-2850 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China has temporarily stabilized, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2750-2900 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the market is relatively mild, but the overall market just needs support.

In terms of demand: Downstream demand for baking soda in pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food is average this month. Raw material soda ash: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash stabilized in March. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2780 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2760 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.72%, an increase of 6.67% compared to the same period last year. The price of soda ash is in consolidation operation, and downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food demand for baking soda is mostly on demand. The price of baking soda is in consolidation operation, and overall, baking soda prices may still be in consolidation operation in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

Price trend in March

According to the monitoring of bulk list data from Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in March decreased. As of March 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% compared to the beginning of the month price of 7975 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 3.64%.

In March, the domestic cryolite market was relatively weak, and the prices of cryolite enterprises were generally lowered during the month. Some enterprises kept their prices stable based on their own shipment situation, resulting in lower fuel coal prices, lower cryolite costs, weaker terminal downstream destocking, and weaker demand for cryolite. In order to stimulate shipment, cryolite prices were lowered.

Analysis of upstream and downstream market conditions

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market rose in March, with mining enterprises facing safety and environmental requirements, resulting in low operating rates and tight spot supply of fluorite. At the same time, the demand side hydrofluoric acid price slightly increased, which brought some benefits to the fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite rebounded, and as of the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3037.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the price of 2981.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream aluminum market fell first and then rose in March. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18676.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the average market price of 18416.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the aluminum price rebounded in January, it fell in mid February. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, the aluminum price stopped falling and stabilized upward. In March, the overall aluminum price walked out of the “V” shape.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises have no inventory pressure, and their raw material supply is tight. Support for cryolite is still acceptable, and downstream demand follows up. The enterprise’s shipments are average, and the market supply and demand are stagnant. It is expected that the cryolite market will consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7636.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.31% compared to 8239.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refined and hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated downward.

According to the latest monitoring data from the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the mainstream factory price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7604.00 yuan/ton, down 6.66% from 8146.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and locally refined straight-run naphtha fluctuated downward.

The naphtha commodity index on March 31 was 94.25, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 22.52% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 123.13% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In March, the overall price of refined naphtha decreased. Currently, the mainstream price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of straight-run naphtha is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The terminal reorganization just needs replenishment, and a small amount of ethylene demand is released. The market transaction is limited, and the transaction is average. In the week ended March 29, Singapore’s fuel inventory fell 470000 barrels to a two-week low of 22.578 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.441 million barrels to a three week low of 15.688 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventories increased by 224000 barrels to 9.851 million barrels, the highest level since October 2021.

Upstream: The price of crude oil rose in early March, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, has a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

Downstream: In March, the overall price of toluene showed a downward trend. On March 1st, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price was 7080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 3.15%. In March, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated, with the price of 7450 yuan/ton on March 1 and 7570 yuan/ton on March 31, up 1.61% from the beginning of the month. In March, domestic PX prices remained stable, with a encouraging increase at the end of the month. In March, the overall price remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further increased, and PX market prices rose strongly.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Energy analysts from Business News believe that in March, the overall international crude oil market fluctuated and declined, with limited naphtha cost support and weak cost and demand. Terminal restructuring just required replenishment, a small amount of ethylene demand was released, market trading was cold, terminal demand was weak, and refineries actively reduced prices to ship. At the end of this month, some refining and reforming units will undergo centralized maintenance, and it is expected that naphtha refining will be mainly conducted in the near future.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) on March 1 was 8340 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 30 was 8275 yuan/ton. During the period, the decline was 0.77%, down 2.03% compared to February 1.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of LDPE (2426H) on March 1 was 9070 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 30 was 8887 yuan/ton. During the period, the decline was 2.01%, down 3.57% compared to the quotation on February 1.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of HDPE (5000S) on March 1 was 8533 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 30 was 8633 yuan/ton. During the period, the increase was 1.17%, up 0.78% compared to February 1.

Polyethylene was mixed in March. LLDPE and LDPE adjusted narrowly in the first half of the month, showing a downward trend in the second half. Near the end of the month, prices showed a slight upward trend, while HDPE prices were mainly strong after a slight increase at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, on the cost side, international crude oil futures rose, supporting the polyethylene market. March was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the market demand was expected to be positive, with the price being raised. In the middle of the month, due to the international banking crisis, the macro market was heavily pessimistic, and the polyethylene market was somewhat dragged down. Near the end of the month, the trend of enterprise overhaul and spot price increase, coupled with the recovery of crude oil market, boosted the price of polyethylene.

The crude oil market is recovering, and the cost side may have some support. From March to April, there was an increase in the maintenance of devices, but the new capacity was gradually released, and the polyethylene supply pressure remained high. Downstream plastic mulch is in the peak season, with weak demand for plastic mulch. In terms of pipes, factory orders have been slow to follow up, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, mainly in demand. Polyethylene analysts from the Business News Agency predict that polyethylene may be mainly operated in a weak and volatile manner.